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Red Sox Sign RHP Matt Andriese; Reds claim C Deivy Grullon
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Post by incandenza on Jan 28, 2021 16:49:08 GMT -5
I mean, I'll give him a chance. I'll root for him and what not, and I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But what I'd look for to think something had really changed is something a lot more sustained than 12 IP.
Maybe eric can come up with some demonstration of how those 12 IP showed him using his 4-seamer in 30% of 2-1 counts whereas he'd only used it in 20% before, and now we should expect the second coming of Pedro or something. But I've been burned by enough such theories to not put too much stock in them. (I love reading eric's posts! But I do tend to take his more optimistic projections with a grain of salt.)
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Post by manfred on Jan 28, 2021 17:01:10 GMT -5
The thing is, his WHIP has been consistently the career mark. At the same rime, people look at the tiny sample at the end of last year — combine it with the assumption that Bloom is the mighty Oz — and “bam” — changed man! June 2015 — 21 innings, WHIP .0762 (season: 1.325) May 2016 — 34 innings, WHIP .932 (season: career best 1.222) May 2018 — 17.2 innings, WHIP 1.14 (season: 1.386) My point is: his mini streak of strong pitching is hardly unprecedented and does not suggest he’s broken out. It is relatively typical for his career. He’s 31, he’s been remarkably consistent year to year. Why expect him to be anything else? While I mostly agree, relief pitchers break out all the time. It can be as simple as a new pitch or changing the mix. Hence I'll give him a shot, yet I'm also bringing in more guys. I want a camp where you might have too many guys versus not enough. I think there's a world in-between you and Eric's views, that's where I am. There is a LOT of world between me and Eric most of the time! But that’s the best way for me to learn — hear very different views. I always enjoy it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 28, 2021 17:01:21 GMT -5
I mean, I'll give him a chance. I'll root for him and what not, and I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But what I'd look for to think something had really changed is something a lot more sustained than 12 IP. Maybe eric can come up with some demonstration of how those 12 IP showed him using his 4-seamer in 30% of 2-1 counts whereas he'd only used it in 20% before, and now we should expect the second coming of Pedro or something. But I've been burned by enough such theories to not put too much stock in them. (I love reading eric's posts! But I do tend to take his more optimistic projections with a grain of salt.) Joe Kelly would have those stretches where he was unhittable followed by stretches where he'd be hit like a pinata or he couldn't find the plate with a road map. I mean, he actually went the last two rounds (not sure against NY) where he had a 13-0 K/BB ratio. Hell, if they had the money, I was so punch drunk happy after the Series, I'd have given it to Joe Kelly, but he's still what he has always been, and his "ceiling" is a lot higher than an Andriese. Can't get too crazy about SSS stuff I guess when it comes to players with track record. They tend to even out more or less. I fully anticipate Andriese will be a guy who's mediocre but better than replacement level. Here's hoping he's much better than that.
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Post by manfred on Jan 28, 2021 17:14:52 GMT -5
One other thing: the argument that Bloom expects Andriese to carry on at this new peak actually seems specious. That is, they signed him for 1/$1.8, right? That is not the price of a guy who is suddenly at the next level... it is the price of a veteran, average innings eater. So it seems to me the offer indicates Bloom is paying for those career averages. It doesn’t mean he can’t hope, though it does suggest that no other GM had the confidence to drive the price out of what is effectively a pretty cheap veteran contract. If 2-3 front offices thought Andriese was suddenly next-level, wouldn’t he have gotten, I don’t know, $2 million? And no matter what people think of Bloom, please don’t tell me he has *unique* insight into these advances.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,029
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Post by cdj on Jan 29, 2021 2:29:30 GMT -5
Lol on what planet does an average veteran innings eater get only 1.8 million? The Sox just paid 4.5 for the encyclopedia definition of an average veteran innings eater
Also imagine complaining about a guy making sub 2 short term on the Boston Red Sox lol...couldn’t be me
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 30, 2021 5:35:04 GMT -5
I mean, I'll give him a chance. I'll root for him and what not, and I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But what I'd look for to think something had really changed is something a lot more sustained than 12 IP. Maybe eric can come up with some demonstration of how those 12 IP showed him using his 4-seamer in 30% of 2-1 counts whereas he'd only used it in 20% before, and now we should expect the second coming of Pedro or something. But I've been burned by enough such theories to not put too much stock in them. (I love reading eric's posts! But I do tend to take his more optimistic projections with a grain of salt.) Potassium chloride is healthier, but you've got the general idea! One other thing: the argument that Bloom expects Andriese to carry on at this new peak actually seems specious. That is, they signed him for 1/$1.8, right? That is not the price of a guy who is suddenly at the next level... it is the price of a veteran, average innings eater. So it seems to me the offer indicates Bloom is paying for those career averages. It doesn’t mean he can’t hope, though it does suggest that no other GM had the confidence to drive the price out of what is effectively a pretty cheap veteran contract. If 2-3 front offices thought Andriese was suddenly next-level, wouldn’t he have gotten, I don’t know, $2 million? And no matter what people think of Bloom, please don’t tell me he has *unique* insight into these advances. I wouldn't in a million years expect him to have a 2.50 ERA this year (that was his pERA in September). But when you have a GM who is top-tier in analytics, and he jumps early on a guy who had a big results breakout, you can guarantee that something real is happening. Note that the biggest reason to expect only a small carryover is that hitters will likely adapt to whatever he's doing differently.
Andriese certainly was a veteran. A veteran who had a total -1.0 WAR in his previous three seasons, with an average of 78 IP a year. He hadn't started since 2017 because he sucked at it. And then on August 31 of this year he had a 6.41 ERA and 5.45 pERA.
Now, perhaps there is some language I am unaware of (Elvish?) in which "average" means "worthless" and "innings-eater" means "mop-up reliever," but this was a guy looking at an NRI deal. And if Bloom was the only guy who noticed his September, looked into it, and thought that it made him into a usable MLB pitcher, he would have been an NRI guy for us. The $2.1M guaranteed deal (including an $0.25 option buyout) is entirely because of his September.
You guys have made me want to figure out what was different, though. Given his previous walk rate, the odds were 20-1 against him facing 40 batters and walking nobody. But hopefully there was something more going on than just better control / command.
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Post by manfred on Jan 30, 2021 10:10:36 GMT -5
I mean, I'll give him a chance. I'll root for him and what not, and I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But what I'd look for to think something had really changed is something a lot more sustained than 12 IP. Maybe eric can come up with some demonstration of how those 12 IP showed him using his 4-seamer in 30% of 2-1 counts whereas he'd only used it in 20% before, and now we should expect the second coming of Pedro or something. But I've been burned by enough such theories to not put too much stock in them. (I love reading eric's posts! But I do tend to take his more optimistic projections with a grain of salt.) Potassium chloride is healthier, but you've got the general idea! One other thing: the argument that Bloom expects Andriese to carry on at this new peak actually seems specious. That is, they signed him for 1/$1.8, right? That is not the price of a guy who is suddenly at the next level... it is the price of a veteran, average innings eater. So it seems to me the offer indicates Bloom is paying for those career averages. It doesn’t mean he can’t hope, though it does suggest that no other GM had the confidence to drive the price out of what is effectively a pretty cheap veteran contract. If 2-3 front offices thought Andriese was suddenly next-level, wouldn’t he have gotten, I don’t know, $2 million? And no matter what people think of Bloom, please don’t tell me he has *unique* insight into these advances. I wouldn't in a million years expect him to have a 2.50 ERA this year (that was his pERA in September). But when you have a GM who is top-tier in analytics, and he jumps early on a guy who had a big results breakout, you can guarantee that something real is happening. Note that the biggest reason to expect only a small carryover is that hitters will likely adapt to whatever he's doing differently.
Andriese certainly was a veteran. A veteran who had a total -1.0 WAR in his previous three seasons, with an average of 78 IP a year. He hadn't started since 2017 because he sucked at it. And then on August 31 of this year he had a 6.41 ERA and 5.45 pERA.
Now, perhaps there is some language I am unaware of (Elvish?) in which "average" means "worthless" and "innings-eater" means "mop-up reliever," but this was a guy looking at an NRI deal. And if Bloom was the only guy who noticed his September, looked into it, and thought that it made him into a usable MLB pitcher, he would have been an NRI guy for us. The $2.1M guaranteed deal (including an $0.25 option buyout) is entirely because of his September.
You guys have made me want to figure out what was different, though. Given his previous walk rate, the odds were 20-1 against him facing 40 batters and walking nobody. But hopefully there was something more going on than just better control / command.
I enjoy this, and I like your attitude. But... your argument is faith not science. You say he is better because Bloom signed him and he did it early. That is a bit circular: Bloom is a genius so this move is genius. He is a genius because he makes moves like this. But what in his track record sets him apart? He threw spaghetti last off season, and it all fell pretty much as anyone could gave predicted. So far his performance in futures is... about right? Not outpacing averages. But then, having asserted something is different in Andriese, you end by saying you need to find what it is! Well, with all your microstats and split up factors, I suspect if you *want* to find something unusual in that span, you will. But why not look back at the other hot streaks I listed? Can’t you find a reason why those *should* have been turning points if you really want? I’m curious, though: you don’t expect him to be the guy he was in September, but obviously because you think something is different you expect him to be better: how much better? Do you think he is a real factor in making them better? Because his projections on Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are that he is the same guy. Edit: really, I should say BR has him a tick below his career numbers: higher ERA and WHIP, higher walks. Only Steamer has his projected ERA as better than his career average, by .08 runs. Still has walks almost .6 higher than his career. So the general projection is that he’ll be just a slight bit worse than his career average.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 30, 2021 10:31:10 GMT -5
The other thing is that Bloom would know Andriese from his time with the Rays, so it may just be that he's always liked him for whatever reason. GMs often seem to have their old favorites that they like to sign after moving to a new team.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 30, 2021 10:40:38 GMT -5
Potassium chloride is healthier, but you've got the general idea! I wouldn't in a million years expect him to have a 2.50 ERA this year (that was his pERA in September). But when you have a GM who is top-tier in analytics, and he jumps early on a guy who had a big results breakout, you can guarantee that something real is happening. Note that the biggest reason to expect only a small carryover is that hitters will likely adapt to whatever he's doing differently. Andriese certainly was a veteran. A veteran who had a total -1.0 WAR in his previous three seasons, with an average of 78 IP a year. He hadn't started since 2017 because he sucked at it. And then on August 31 of this year he had a 6.41 ERA and 5.45 pERA. Now, perhaps there is some language I am unaware of (Elvish?) in which "average" means "worthless" and "innings-eater" means "mop-up reliever," but this was a guy looking at an NRI deal. And if Bloom was the only guy who noticed his September, looked into it, and thought that it made him into a usable MLB pitcher, he would have been an NRI guy for us. The $2.1M guaranteed deal (including an $0.25 option buyout) is entirely because of his September. You guys have made me want to figure out what was different, though. Given his previous walk rate, the odds were 20-1 against him facing 40 batters and walking nobody. But hopefully there was something more going on than just better control / command.
I enjoy this, and I like your attitude. But... your argument is faith not science. You say he is better because Bloom signed him and he did it early. That is a bit circular: Bloom is a genius so this move is genius. He is a genius because he makes moves like this. But what in his track record sets him apart? He threw spaghetti last off season, and it all fell pretty much as anyone could gave predicted. So far his performance in futures is... about right? Not outpacing averages. But then, having asserted something is different in Andriese, you end by saying you need to find what it is! Well, with all your microstats and split up factors, I suspect if you *want* to find something unusual in that span, you will. But why not look back at the other hot streaks I listed? Can’t you find a reason why those *should* have been turning points if you really want? I’m curious, though: you don’t expect him to be the guy he was in September, but obviously because you think something is different you expect him to be better: how much better? Do you think he is a real factor in making them better? Because his projections on Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are that he is the same guy. Edit: really, I should say BR has him a tick below his career numbers: higher ERA and WHIP, higher walks. Only Steamer has his projected ERA as better than his career average, by .08 runs. Still has walks almost .6 higher than his career. So the general projection is that he’ll be just a slight bit worse than his career average. Yup, I was thinking the same thing. It implies because Bloom did it, it must be a genius move. More likely Bloom liked him from his days in Tampa, knew he was a mediocrity, but a mediocrity he could count on. Maybe he does see something that has a small chance of improving him, so maybe that is the reason. But either way, it does imply that Bloom is a genius, so it must be the correct move, which is what I push back on. And it's not a pushback against Bloom but the implication that Bloom is playing chess while the other 29 GMs/Baseball OPS heads are playing checkers. They're smart, too, and they didn't exactly pounce on Andriese either. I don't know if Bloom is smarter than the other 29 GMs or not. Time will tell as far as that goes. I'm hopeful that he's in the top tier, but I have no real evidence to say he is and no real evidence to he say isn't. He threw a lot of stuff against the wall last year and practically none of it worked unless you count a middle reliever whose numbers (Valdez) were better than his peripherals. That's not exactly Dan Duquette's 1995 season (or was it Mike Gimbel?), or Theo's 2002-2003 offseason or even Ben Cherington's 2013. That doesn't mean that he didn't do things well. I thought he made out well on his divestment trades, although I suspect we'll be disappointed that JBJ walked and he got nothing for him. So I'm not going to start with the default position of if Bloom did it, it must be a genius move. Let him earn that before I start heading in that direction. Let's see if Nick Yorke is what Bloom judged him to be - a guy who really is a 1st round talent. Let's see if Frank German is a guy who can become a key setup man or better instead of the fringy guy others project. Let's see if Bloom made the right call swapping out the Graterol for Downs and Wong part of the Betts deal. Let's see what he does with that 4th pick and how that turns out as it's the most important pick the Red Sox have had in a long time. I want to know these things and others before I just assume that Bloom is a genius. Like I said, I do have a good deal of hope that he will lead the Red Sox to where they have to go, but he just doesn't have that cache for me - at least not yet. I hope it does become in Chaim I trust. I want to trust him completely.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jan 30, 2021 11:47:08 GMT -5
I would think getting Andriese at this price may be an indicator of him just being a placeholder. Essentially saying that the sox may expect one or multiple guys to step up that they didn't exactly expect. Andriese can pitch half a season, do an ok job and step aside when the new player emerges. For 1.8M thats perfect. If he out pitches his expectations then all the better (then trade at deadline haha)
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 30, 2021 18:02:54 GMT -5
I enjoy this, and I like your attitude. But... your argument is faith not science. You say he is better because Bloom signed him and he did it early. That is a bit circular: Bloom is a genius so this move is genius. He is a genius because he makes moves like this. But what in his track record sets him apart? He threw spaghetti last off season, and it all fell pretty much as anyone could gave predicted. So far his performance in futures is... about right? Not outpacing averages. But then, having asserted something is different in Andriese, you end by saying you need to find what it is! Well, with all your microstats and split up factors, I suspect if you *want* to find something unusual in that span, you will. But why not look back at the other hot streaks I listed? Can’t you find a reason why those *should* have been turning points if you really want? I’m curious, though: you don’t expect him to be the guy he was in September, but obviously because you think something is different you expect him to be better: how much better? Do you think he is a real factor in making them better? Because his projections on Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are that he is the same guy. Edit: really, I should say BR has him a tick below his career numbers: higher ERA and WHIP, higher walks. Only Steamer has his projected ERA as better than his career average, by .08 runs. Still has walks almost .6 higher than his career. So the general projection is that he’ll be just a slight bit worse than his career average. Yup, I was thinking the same thing. It implies because Bloom did it, it must be a genius move. More likely Bloom liked him from his days in Tampa, knew he was a mediocrity, but a mediocrity he could count on. Maybe he does see something that has a small chance of improving him, so maybe that is the reason. But either way, it does imply that Bloom is a genius, so it must be the correct move, which is what I push back on. And it's not a pushback against Bloom but the implication that Bloom is playing chess while the other 29 GMs/Baseball OPS heads are playing checkers. They're smart, too, and they didn't exactly pounce on Andriese either. I don't know if Bloom is smarter than the other 29 GMs or not. Time will tell as far as that goes. I'm hopeful that he's in the top tier, but I have no real evidence to say he is and no real evidence to he say isn't. He threw a lot of stuff against the wall last year and practically none of it worked unless you count a middle reliever whose numbers (Valdez) were better than his peripherals. That's not exactly Dan Duquette's 1995 season (or was it Mike Gimbel?), or Theo's 2002-2003 offseason or even Ben Cherington's 2013. That doesn't mean that he didn't do things well. I thought he made out well on his divestment trades, although I suspect we'll be disappointed that JBJ walked and he got nothing for him. So I'm not going to start with the default position of if Bloom did it, it must be a genius move. Let him earn that before I start heading in that direction. Let's see if Nick Yorke is what Bloom judged him to be - a guy who really is a 1st round talent. Let's see if Frank German is a guy who can become a key setup man or better instead of the fringy guy others project. Let's see if Bloom made the right call swapping out the Graterol for Downs and Wong part of the Betts deal. Let's see what he does with that 4th pick and how that turns out as it's the most important pick the Red Sox have had in a long time. I want to know these things and others before I just assume that Bloom is a genius. Like I said, I do have a good deal of hope that he will lead the Red Sox to where they have to go, but he just doesn't have that cache for me - at least not yet. I hope it does become in Chaim I trust. I want to trust him completely. You guys are (unconsciously, I think) ignoring the entire point of my argument. If you looked at Matt Andriese on August 31, you would have bet the proverbial cash money that he would sign a minor league deal.
He then fanned 13 guys in September, all swinging, without walking anyone. He had a legit 2.83 ERA (pERA of 2.50 adjusted for quality of opposing hitters). And he got $2.1M guaranteed.
Bloom was not bidding against himself. A bunch of teams thought he was worth about that much money. The combination of the Red Sox team quality and the TB connection suggests that the $2.1M wasn't necessarily higher than the second-best offer.
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So, what's with Andriese? I first looked at 2018 through 8/31/20, since no projection model goes back further than 3 years. The first thing that's really interesting is that he was -16.20 RAA as measured by the change in run expectancy of each PA, but -6.23 RAA measured by the quality of his pitches (yes, we'll get to that breakdown later). That added 0.53 to his RA.
Now, some of that could be situational, and he in fact allowed a .324 wOBA with the base empty and a .342 with runners on. But that would only add 0.25 to his RA. Where did they other 0.28 come from?
The thing is, I'm quite sure that the pitch values are measured in a way that could explain this. As you work through the count, each pitch is either assigned the run value of the change in count, or a generic run value for the average strike or ball. So if you get ahead of a guy 0-2 on fastballs and fan him on a slider, either most of the credit for the K goes to the FB, and the slider just gets credit for going from 0-2 to the K, or they split the strikeout equally. There are arguments for doing it each way, so I'm unsure which they chose. (Of course, I' like to see both!)
But what if you throw a meatball on the 0-2 pitch and the guy hits out of the park? If you used the pitch-by-pitch logic, this would make that a much worse pitch than if you had thrown it 3-1 and it had been hit of the park. And while there is truth in that, the change in count has a very small effect on the inherent hittability of the pitch, which is what we're trying to measure. It's much easier to hit on 3-1 than 0-2 because the pitch selection is hugely more predictable. Getting an 0-2 FB hit out the yard is a shame, but we don't want to confuse the quality of the pitch itself with the quality of the decision to throw that pitch in that count. So while I'm not sure how they manage strikeouts and walks, I'm pretty certain that the run value of a batted ball is count-independent.
So does the 0.28 extra of RA come from not managing the count well? (When you get ahead in the count and then give up a hit, your pitch values get credited for the getting-ahead, but they do not reduce your RA.) Is this evidence of a bad approach, one that might be fixed?
I only have his career numbers, but right away they back this up. Andriese in his career has gotten to a full count 18% less often than the average pitcher (based on 2019 MLB splits). He's had 8% more PA end when he's ahead in the count, but despite that he's been less effective.
Ahead in count
.232 / .232 / .365 Andriese career (698 PA)
.200 / .209 / .321 MLB in in 2019.
What about the other situations?
Even in count (including first pitch) .285 / .292 / .492 Andriese career (662 PA) .272 / .280 / .468 MLB in in 2019
And now it gets interesting.
Behind in count (excluding full count) .331 / .459 / .582 Andriese career (368 PA) .356 / .493 / .658 MLB in in 2019.
Once he gets behind in the count -- which happens 2% less often with him -- he's relatively good!
Full count
.162 / .394 / .281 Andriese career (231 PA)
.202 / .453 / .362 MLB 2019
In the count Andriese has apparently been trying to avoid his whole career, he's been great.
The full count is the great leveler of pitching situations. If you're really good with a full count, you should be really good period. And in fact you see similar splits when he's behind in the count. But when he's even or ahead--which is 69% of the time -- he hasn't been good at all!
Sneak preview of next installment: he did not throw his sinker and slider at all in September, and they had been terrible pitches. I can't find any real evidence that his stuff was any different. Folks might want to guess what desirable pitch outcome was 78% higher in September than previously in these 3 years. (If you agree with someone's guess, just like the post.) Meanwhile, I'm making dinner.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 30, 2021 19:16:14 GMT -5
Bloom was not bidding against himself. A bunch of teams thought he was worth about that much money. And you are (unconsciously, perhaps) ignoring what people are saying about this right here - you have absolutely no reason to know this to be a fact. The fact that Bloom paid him $2.1M doesn't eliminate all other potential reasons except that there was some low-stakes bidding war. Is it unlikely that he was bidding against himself given how he's slow played everything else this offseason? Probably. Is it the certainty you keep saying it is? Nope, not even close. Is it the 3D chess you're kind of implying it is? I don't think it is. Another potential story: Bloom had identified Andriese as the best swingman available on the market by a fair amount and swooped in to grab him prior to a season in which that particular skill set will be critical to this team more than most. Maybe Andriese said hey, I won't come to the northeast for less than $2.5M and Bloom negotiated him down to $2.1. Who knows? You do this a lot. You get a narrative in your head and justify it in ways that aren't logical, and don't accept that maybe there are other explanations. And I don't agree with "on August 31 he's a MLFA" by the way. Look at his game log. He was great in his first outing, had a stretch of 3 of 4 outings that were brutal if you look only at his line (more on that in a second), then was 17.0-5-4-4-5-18 the rest of the way. The start to his season: Game 1: Ohtani fails to retire any of the first 6 hitters and gets yanked. Andriese saves the day with 5.2 scoreless. Game 2: He starts and can't get out of the second. Awful outing.
Game 3: Teheran can't finish the third and Buchter gets out of that frame. Andriese goes 3 scoreless in relief. Game 4: Teheran can't finish the third again. Andriese strikes out the side to get out of that inning. He gives up 4 runs, 3 earned. There's a weird fielder's choice single in there that was challenged. Might be brutal luck. Only XBH is a Chapman 3B. Game 5: Replaces Teheran in the 4th. Gives up 2 groundball singles before C. Seager takes him deep. Gets out of it. In the next 2 innings he goes F7, Ks, Ks, Ks, HR (Matt Beaty), Ks, Kl.So he threw 32 innings on the season and had 3 bad innings. So no, I don't think he was ever going to be a MLFA. He had a pretty good campaign, but the problem is in a 60-game slate, 3 bad innings torpedoes your numbers worse than it otherwise would. In a 162-game season, you wouldn't be making an argument that "AFTER HIS 8TH OUTING, HE LOOKED LIKE A MLFA!" My guess is that teams are smart enough to see this. Look at what Bloom said about Ottavino's numbers, and how two outings - really one horrid one - torpedoed his season line.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 30, 2021 20:10:48 GMT -5
Yup, I was thinking the same thing. It implies because Bloom did it, it must be a genius move. More likely Bloom liked him from his days in Tampa, knew he was a mediocrity, but a mediocrity he could count on. Maybe he does see something that has a small chance of improving him, so maybe that is the reason. But either way, it does imply that Bloom is a genius, so it must be the correct move, which is what I push back on. And it's not a pushback against Bloom but the implication that Bloom is playing chess while the other 29 GMs/Baseball OPS heads are playing checkers. They're smart, too, and they didn't exactly pounce on Andriese either. I don't know if Bloom is smarter than the other 29 GMs or not. Time will tell as far as that goes. I'm hopeful that he's in the top tier, but I have no real evidence to say he is and no real evidence to he say isn't. He threw a lot of stuff against the wall last year and practically none of it worked unless you count a middle reliever whose numbers (Valdez) were better than his peripherals. That's not exactly Dan Duquette's 1995 season (or was it Mike Gimbel?), or Theo's 2002-2003 offseason or even Ben Cherington's 2013. That doesn't mean that he didn't do things well. I thought he made out well on his divestment trades, although I suspect we'll be disappointed that JBJ walked and he got nothing for him. So I'm not going to start with the default position of if Bloom did it, it must be a genius move. Let him earn that before I start heading in that direction. Let's see if Nick Yorke is what Bloom judged him to be - a guy who really is a 1st round talent. Let's see if Frank German is a guy who can become a key setup man or better instead of the fringy guy others project. Let's see if Bloom made the right call swapping out the Graterol for Downs and Wong part of the Betts deal. Let's see what he does with that 4th pick and how that turns out as it's the most important pick the Red Sox have had in a long time. I want to know these things and others before I just assume that Bloom is a genius. Like I said, I do have a good deal of hope that he will lead the Red Sox to where they have to go, but he just doesn't have that cache for me - at least not yet. I hope it does become in Chaim I trust. I want to trust him completely. You guys are (unconsciously, I think) ignoring the entire point of my argument. If you looked at Matt Andriese on August 31, you would have bet the proverbial cash money that he would sign a minor league deal.
He then fanned 13 guys in September, all swinging, without walking anyone. He had a legit 2.83 ERA (pERA of 2.50 adjusted for quality of opposing hitters). And he got $2.1M guaranteed.
Bloom was not bidding against himself. A bunch of teams thought he was worth about that much money. The combination of the Red Sox team quality and the TB connection suggests that the $2.1M wasn't necessarily higher than the second-best offer. ----
So, what's with Andriese? I first looked at 2018 through 8/31/20, since no projection model goes back further than 3 years. The first thing that's really interesting is that he was -16.20 RAA as measured by the change in run expectancy of each PA, but -6.23 RAA measured by the quality of his pitches (yes, we'll get to that breakdown later). That added 0.53 to his RA. Now, some of that could be situational, and he in fact allowed a .324 wOBA with the base empty and a .342 with runners on. But that would only add 0.25 to his RA. Where did they other 0.28 come from? The thing is, I'm quite sure that the pitch values are measured in a way that could explain this. As you work through the count, each pitch is either assigned the run value of the change in count, or a generic run value for the average strike or ball. So if you get ahead of a guy 0-2 on fastballs and fan him on a slider, either most of the credit for the K goes to the FB, and the slider just gets credit for going from 0-2 to the K, or they split the strikeout equally. There are arguments for doing it each way, so I'm unsure which they chose. (Of course, I' like to see both!)
But what if you throw a meatball on the 0-2 pitch and the guy hits out of the park? If you used the pitch-by-pitch logic, this would make that a much worse pitch than if you had thrown it 3-1 and it had been hit of the park. And while there is truth in that, the change in count has a very small effect on the inherent hittability of the pitch, which is what we're trying to measure. It's much easier to hit on 3-1 than 0-2 because the pitch selection is hugely more predictable. Getting an 0-2 FB hit out the yard is a shame, but we don't want to confuse the quality of the pitch itself with the quality of the decision to throw that pitch in that count. So while I'm not sure how they manage strikeouts and walks, I'm pretty certain that the run value of a batted ball is count-independent.
So does the 0.28 extra of RA come from not managing the count well? (When you get ahead in the count and then give up a hit, your pitch values get credited for the getting-ahead, but they do not reduce your RA.) Is this evidence of a bad approach, one that might be fixed?
I only have his career numbers, but right away they back this up. Andriese in his career has gotten to a full count 18% less often than the average pitcher (based on 2019 MLB splits). He's had 8% more PA end when he's ahead in the count, but despite that he's been less effective. Ahead in count
.232 / .232 / .365 Andriese career (698 PA)
.200 / .209 / .321 MLB in in 2019. What about the other situations? Even in count (including first pitch) .285 / .292 / .492 Andriese career (662 PA) .272 / .280 / .468 MLB in in 2019 And now it gets interesting.
Behind in count (excluding full count) .331 / .459 / .582 Andriese career (368 PA) .356 / .493 / .658 MLB in in 2019.
Once he gets behind in the count -- which happens 2% less often with him -- he's relatively good! Full count
.162 / .394 / .281 Andriese career (231 PA)
.202 / .453 / .362 MLB 2019
In the count Andriese has apparently been trying to avoid his whole career, he's been great.
The full count is the great leveler of pitching situations. If you're really good with a full count, you should be really good period. And in fact you see similar splits when he's behind in the count. But when he's even or ahead--which is 69% of the time -- he hasn't been good at all! Sneak preview of next installment: he did not throw his sinker and slider at all in September, and they had been terrible pitches. I can't find any real evidence that his stuff was any different. Folks might want to guess what desirable pitch outcome was 78% higher in September than previously in these 3 years. (If you agree with someone's guess, just like the post.) Meanwhile, I'm making dinner.
Eric, the sample size is so damn relatively small, that I cannot get too worked up over it when there's a larger sample size showing what he is. Players have stretches where they play above their head and others where they can't do anything right. You might recall how great Felix Doubront was for a prolonged stretch in 2013. You'd have thought stardom was right around the corner. When it was all said and done, it didn't happen. Players have great months. I used the Joe Kelly example. We all know he had stretches where he was dominant (that 13-0 K/BB ratio in the 2018 post-season was him at his ultimate best at the right time). We all know he had stretches that were cringeworthy. With him, you could wonder if you were getting Jekyll Kelly or Hyde Kelly. It's almost like you see one of those stretches and project some major change that unlocks everything and voila, a changed player. Can it happen? Sure. We all know the Joey Bautista story and closer to us there's JD Martinez and the changes he made which translated as to why his stats took off. And none greater than David Ortiz who needed to get the hell away from Tom Kelly. But that's more the exception than the rule. Hey, I hope you are right and that after all of these years, there's a new and improved Matt Andriese that Bloom shrewdly tapped into. He didn't do much successful tapping into last season. Most of his pickups didn't pan out. And I looked around the stats of other teams and was surprised to so many contributions by guys I have never heard of, pickups from other organizations who happened to have useful seasons last season. Nobody off the top of my head that was earth shattering but a bunch of guys who contributed as much if not more than your typcial Phillips Valdez. Ultimately I think Chris is right. I think there was a familiarity with Andriese from Bloom, a sense of reliability, albeit mediocre - which is a step up from the replacement level performances they were getting last year, but more importantly as Chris pointed out the fitting of a need, a swing guy who can soak up some innings.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 30, 2021 22:13:28 GMT -5
Bloom was not bidding against himself. A bunch of teams thought he was worth about that much money. And you are (unconsciously, perhaps) ignoring what people are saying about this right here - you have absolutely no reason to know this to be a fact. [...] This is Eric in a nutshell. Interesting ideas, unique perspective, admirable creativity, comes up with things that are possibly or likely or even probably true, and then ruins the argument by claiming it is 100% true and that only idiots could disagree. It's like if you had a guy who was leading the league in triples, but every time he hit a triple he would think it was an insider-the-parker and would run through a stop sign at 3rd base and ruin it, because the third-base coach is "insane."
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 31, 2021 2:13:25 GMT -5
I don’t even get the argument that he’s an overpay. He’s a swing man that will eat some innings for us. Probably will even start some games. They paid him 1.85 with a bonus that takes him to 2.10. He had an intriguing month to end the season and has generally been a meh pitcher in the bigs throughout his career. He got pretty much the exact contract I’d expect for a free agent meh swingman. He’s solid depth to have
And even if you think he’s overpaid he’s overpaid by what- a couple hundred thousand??? With no term? Who gives a crap, honestly.
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Post by manfred on Jan 31, 2021 10:07:01 GMT -5
I don’t even get the argument that he’s an overpay. He’s a swing man that will eat some innings for us. Probably will even start some games. They paid him 1.85 with a bonus that takes him to 2.10. He had an intriguing month to end the season and has generally been a meh pitcher in the bigs throughout his career. He got pretty much the exact contract I’d expect for a free agent meh swingman. He’s solid depth to have And even if you think he’s overpaid he’s overpaid by what- a couple hundred thousand??? With no term? Who gives a crap, honestly. The argument isn’t he’s overpay... it is that he is a nothing burger. When people list the off-season moves, he should be nothing more than a factual notice in the transactions. But the idea that, say, adding him in place of going into last year with Hembree is even is exaggerating his value. For me, it is part of a pattern of overestimating the new guys because each gets a sprinkle of Bloom-dust... must be more than we know! But Andriese, Renfroe, Kiké... these guys are not so hot.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 31, 2021 10:19:41 GMT -5
We can't argue about how horrifically bad the pitching was last year and then complain about the team working to add warm bodies who can actually get through an inning. He may be a "nothing-burger" to you, but we all swallowed enough "poison pills" last season for a lifetime. He's just one more piece, that's all.
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Post by manfred on Jan 31, 2021 10:46:09 GMT -5
We can't argue about how horrifically bad the pitching was last year and then complain about the team working to add warm bodies who can actually get through an inning. He may be a "nothing-burger" to you, but we all swallowed enough "poison pills" last season for a lifetime. He's just one more piece, that's all. True, but one of the poison pills, Ryan Weber, had nearly twice Andriese’s WAR. Andriese was just north of Mazza. In other words, he might well be another of the poison pills. Heck, Andrew Triggs was worth .2 WAR in 8 innings to Andriese’s .6 in 32 innings. Indeed, iirc there was some level of happy-talk about the spaghetti bowl before last season. Surely some of it will stick! This seems to be... what do they call it when you do the same thing but expect different results? Generally, what I’m getting at is that guys like Andriese, Renfroe, Kiké, Richards are a slightly higher quality spaghetti. In the background of course, are the losses they have to make up for. Last season, Verdugo was very good. But it didn’t mean they weren’t worse in RF. Now, it looks like they’ll let JBJ walk and go with Renfroe. Step back. Kiké at 2B — not a step back but no huge advance. And Andriese and Ottavino... but at this time last year we still had Hembree and Workman. So — while I think AO will be a big step up from Workman, who I thought was a fluke — it is still not actually *adding* length to the bullpen. It is standing still. If Richards hits, I’ll certainly be excited. But I’ll believe it when he gets to 41 innings. If the team is better, and all of us believe it will be, the advances come because Sale and ERod come back and JDM bounces back. Inherited guys. Other than Ottavino, I don’t see the moves this off-season creating enough value even to equal what gas been lost/given up in the last two years.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 31, 2021 11:34:57 GMT -5
Yeah that’s because you clearly don’t value organizational depth. Let’s just trot Kyle Hart and Matt Hall back out there, yeah?
I get it- you want to take a pessimistic approach to every move Bloom makes. By all means. Just please don’t try and pretend that we are silly for liking the fact they are adding depth so we don’t repeat last season. It’s dumb, and his contract is peanuts
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Post by manfred on Jan 31, 2021 11:49:29 GMT -5
Yeah that’s because you clearly don’t value organizational depth. Let’s just trot Kyle Hart and Matt Hall back out there, yeah? I get it- you want to take a pessimistic approach to every move Bloom makes. By all means. Just please don’t try and pretend that we are silly for liking the fact they are adding depth so we don’t repeat last season. It’s dumb, and his contract is peanuts That is a false choice: this guy or two of the real low moments last season. But as I wrote, Andriese is actually *middle of the pack* of the misfits last year. And who accumulated those misfits, again? Everyone keeps talking about “the plan” They were the plan last year. So forgive me if I am simply seeing consistency from the FO. Add: what I don’t get is how people see a huge difference between the tactics of this off-season and last: they added a LOT of guys last year, hoping to squeeze value. Everyone saw what happened. This off-season, they are, again, signing guys who need Eric to do analyzes of their September or spray chart comparisons to show how their poor performance will turn good going forward. Haven’t we been down this path? I acknowledge the upside is much higher with this bunch, but there are about as many reasons to doubt reaching those upsides.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 31, 2021 11:51:11 GMT -5
Yeah that’s because you clearly don’t value organizational depth. Let’s just trot Kyle Hart and Matt Hall back out there, yeah? I get it- you want to take a pessimistic approach to every move Bloom makes. By all means. Just please don’t try and pretend that we are silly for liking the fact they are adding depth so we don’t repeat last season. It’s dumb, and his contract is peanuts That is a false choice: this guy or two of the real low moments last season. But as I wrote, Andriese is actually *middle of the pack* of the misfits last year. And who accumulated those misfits, again? Everyone keeps talking about “the plan” They were the plan last year. So forgive me if I am simply seeing consistency from the FO. It’s not a false choice just because you say it is- just a heads up You’re downright offended they added an average swingman with starting experience. It’s honestly pathetic that he can’t sign depth arms without you bitching. If he sucks he’s gone! No harm no foul! But please carry on this tedious argument about a swingman who makes peanuts
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Post by manfred on Jan 31, 2021 11:57:13 GMT -5
That is a false choice: this guy or two of the real low moments last season. But as I wrote, Andriese is actually *middle of the pack* of the misfits last year. And who accumulated those misfits, again? Everyone keeps talking about “the plan” They were the plan last year. So forgive me if I am simply seeing consistency from the FO. It’s not a false choice just because you say it is- just a heads up You’re downright offended they added an average swingman with starting experience. It’s honestly pathetic that he can’t sign depth arms without you bitching I’d be happier if he were a depth arm. But they traded Hembree and Workman at the deadline, and now they added Ottavino and Andriese. So there is no lengthening of the bullpen. They basically exchanged Hembree for Andriese in that 6/7 inning role. I’m not sure that makes them better. And it is a false choice because it ignores the third option of adding to the bullpen with different signings. Personally, I wanted Rosenthal. If they’d signed him and gotten Ottavino, you could have Barnes —> Ottavino —> Rosenthal in the 7-9th innings, which would be pretty solid. Just as an example.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 31, 2021 12:02:15 GMT -5
Yeah that’s because you clearly don’t value organizational depth. Let’s just trot Kyle Hart and Matt Hall back out there, yeah? I get it- you want to take a pessimistic approach to every move Bloom makes. By all means. Just please don’t try and pretend that we are silly for liking the fact they are adding depth so we don’t repeat last season. It’s dumb, and his contract is peanuts That is a false choice: this guy or two of the real low moments last season. But as I wrote, Andriese is actually *middle of the pack* of the misfits last year. And who accumulated those misfits, again? Everyone keeps talking about “the plan” They were the plan last year. So forgive me if I am simply seeing consistency from the FO. Have to agree - Bloom's plan to have ERod and Darwinzon catch covid and McHugh sit the season out because of it, all while Sale was missing the season from tommy john, looks pretty iffy in retrospect.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 31, 2021 12:04:07 GMT -5
It’s not a false choice just because you say it is- just a heads up You’re downright offended they added an average swingman with starting experience. It’s honestly pathetic that he can’t sign depth arms without you bitching I’d be happier if he were a depth arm. But they traded Hembree and Workman at the deadline, and now they added Ottavino and Andriese. So there is no lengthening of the bullpen. They basically exchanged Hembree for Andriese in that 6/7 inning role. I’m not sure that makes them better. Not true, they have Darwinzon and Taylor actually playing now too. Barnes/Brasier/Ottavino/Hernandez are the late game arms. Brice/Valdez/Taylor for the middle of the games. Andriese is gonna be a guy that can spot start for them and eat up innings when necessary- Whitlock too if he makes the team. This idea that they are relying on Andriese in a 7th inning role is NONSENSE. He’s a versatile arm that gives them depth in multiple roles Btw you can’t cite Andriese‘s meh numbers last year then turn around and say he’s not an upgrade on Hembree when Hembree was the hottest of garbage last season
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jan 31, 2021 12:09:20 GMT -5
Weber.. He of last off season's "this guy has terrific spin rate" and will be a good pitcher, regardless of the fact he's been consistently terrible for his entire career. Doesn't everyone just love how some just pump up and swear by analytics and this crap *only* and never waver from it?
Think it's time to jump off the hammer Andriese. At best he's a long reliever/starter in a relievers game and he's sure better than was Velezquez of a cpl years back. At worst, he's better than guys at the bottom of the pen, like valdez and Brice.
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