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Red Sox Sign RHP Matt Andriese; Reds claim C Deivy Grullon
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 24, 2020 22:16:16 GMT -5
Looking quickly, of Fangraphs' top 50 free agents, 8 have signed, and two of those accepted qualifying offers and never really hit the market. Using Kiley McDaniel's list at ESPN, it's 9 of his top 50 and just 13 of his 112-player list. This isn't a Chaim Bloom sitting around while other teams sign guys problem. It's the market. If you want to complain about the market being slow, then yeah, that's reasonable-ish at least. But this isn't about guys just getting scooped up while Bloom sits on his hands. Dombrowski used to go out and pay a premium to try to lock up his targets early. The benefit would be that he got his man. The problem is that he'd be outbidding himself, essentially for the benefit of... getting the player signed two months sooner maybe? This is why Eovaldi is on the contract he's on, why Sale is on the extension he's on, why some of the trades might've involved one player too many. (I don't include Price because the reason his deal was significantly higher was to convince him to come to Boston, where he really wasn't interested in signing). I'm not necessarily defending Bloom. My point is that it's not rational to knock him for being part of a slow market. If you're blase on the Andriese signing, I get it - it's kind of a whatever move that can only be evaluated after seeing what else they're going to do (i.e., if he's being signed to be the fifth starter, that's bad. If he's being signed to be the 13th pitcher, then hey, that's some good depth). But the whining about why isn't Bloom signing anyone is getting really old. I’m not whining about Bloom not signing anyone. I am on record as saying I’d rather endure another bad year than commit big to this crop of FAs. So I actually will congratulate him on his restraint. My only issue is with people who look at nothing moves like Andriese or slightly less nothing moves like Renfroe and act like Bloom has just demonstrated that he is the Napoleon of MLB. Thus far — and I say this not as a criticism but as an observation — he has not done much of anything to improve the team. He’s been sailing into the wind, so I’m not down on him yet. But the adulation he sometimes seems to get in posts is wishful thinking. If he fields a good team, I’ll like him. The last three GMs got rings. We’ll see with him. This not to mention the head scratcher first pick last year. Sure, let’s wait. But let’s not assume that was a stroke of genius that flew over everyone else’s heads. It might work out. If it doesn’t, then it will be what it looked like at the time... a bad pick. You mean you saw it as a bad pick? If you're taking your cues from all the sites that rate draft choices I've got those grains of salt for you. The talk among scouts, part of the group that actually saw him play, was that he was a legitimate second round pick that the Sox chose as a first rounder so as not to lose the chance. Some of those scouts even thought he might go higher if not for the funky year.
As for what Bloom has or hasn't done, there's Verdugo, Valdez, Plawecki, Arauz, Arroyo, Pivetta, Seabold, Downs, Wong, Potts, Jordan, Wallace, and Rosario. Even journeymen like Brice and Mazza may belong on that list. Everyone's favorite analytics binkie, Bill James, was absolutely gushing about the restocking. That's before we talk about the current on-the-cheap acquisitions which haven't even put a dent in their war chest at this point.
Chris's point is well taken. There is no action to speak of. It will all break at some point and there will be more roster additions. But hammering away at Bloom is overdoing it in my opinion. He was given a system that was just about devoid of talent and now I can actually remember most of the names without looking them up. Is it gold? Not at all. But it isn't the lead weight they've been dragging around for a few years either.
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Post by manfred on Dec 24, 2020 22:16:22 GMT -5
Is there a single post in this thread where someone is saying this? I agree, claiming that this signing is a true stroke of genius is really stretching things - so I checked, and as far as I can tell, nobody is doing that. Not a single person is doing that and it’s that “complaining for the sake of hearing yourself complain” thing I alluded go earlier. But I mean Bloom added a quality depth piece so let’s get the torches out and start criticizing people for ball-washing this move when they’re doing nothing of the sort. I just don’t understand it a season after we pitched Kyle Hart but whatever at this point There were examples last season with dustbin gets like Aruz and Arroyo. The Renfroe signing was lauded beyond its worth. Maybe I shouldn’t call it Bloom worship... maybe it is Sox blinders that makes guys who are barely worth notice suddenly some great get. But in this case, I’d say we got a guy who has been less successful than Colten Brewer and is akin to the spaghetti thrown at the wall last offseason. But.... I’m with you if you want to call it a step up from Kyle Hart. I know not much is happening so these things are all there is to talk about. But thus far there is nothing to talk about. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 24, 2020 23:00:21 GMT -5
Who is calling this a “great get”? You keep bringing up these people but they do not exist
It’s a good depth signing of a guy who has good spin and had an interesting September. Hopefully they can get him to continue that and if they can then they have a 6th/7th inning piece or spot starter, depending on what’s necessary. He’s a versatile arm. I like that they are acquiring arms that are more talented than what was trotted out last year. Nothing more nothing less
People are going to discuss Red Sox moves on a Red Sox forum, no matter how big or small
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 24, 2020 23:01:37 GMT -5
Overpaid with a whopping 1.85 guarantee, damn what are they going to ever do? Hopefully they can still extend Devers and Verdugo
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 24, 2020 23:14:00 GMT -5
Overpaid with a whopping 1.85 guarantee, damn what are they going to ever do? Hopefully they can still extend Devers and Verdugo LMAO!! It's actually $2.1MM guaranteed! I knew I'd get a rise out of you tonight. Have a Merry X-Mas! |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 24, 2020 23:35:50 GMT -5
Overpaid with a whopping 1.85 guarantee, damn what are they going to ever do? Hopefully they can still extend Devers and Verdugo LMAO!! It's actually $2.1MM guaranteed! I knew I'd get a rise out of you tonight. Have a Merry X-Mas! You and I have different definitions of “get a rise out of” but ok, I’ll be over here with the normal people not crying over an extra 500k spent on depth from a team flush with cash. Btw the difference between the guys you listed and Andriese is that Andriese can start. I’m not gonna sit here and tell you It’s a steal of a contract, but it’s peanuts at the end of the day and the comparisons made aren’t apples to apples. Merry Xmas! |
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 25, 2020 0:12:02 GMT -5
LMAO!! It's actually $2.1MM guaranteed! I knew I'd get a rise out of you tonight. Have a Merry X-Mas! You and I have different definitions of “get a rise out of” but ok, I’ll be over here with the normal people not crying over an extra 500k spent on depth from a team flush with cash. Btw the difference between the guys you listed and Andriese is that Andriese can start. I’m not gonna sit here and tell you It’s a steal of a contract, but it’s peanuts at the end of the day and the comparisons made aren’t apples to apples. Merry Xmas! Fair enough. And consider yourself blessed to be able to spend Christmas Eve with the normal people. I'll be over here taking care of the sick people with about another 50 more covid specimens to analyze. Haha, and trust me, I'm not going to be shedding tears over any amount of money the Red Sox piss away. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 25, 2020 6:23:41 GMT -5
He was worth a good portion of 1.0 WAR last September, when he was the second best pitcher in baseball in terms of results. Your need to see the downside and ignore the actual rationale and hence see the upside is almost disturbing.
With one exception, the only players signed so far are lower-tier players who apparently had their own individual markets, among the minority of teams that saw their upside. The one exception, Trevor May as the first set-up reliever off the market, was money spent by a team newly flush with cash and hoping to outbid everyone, and it was at the least valuable position.
Seriously, dude. We get a GM+ from the organization that got Randy Arozarena for next to nothing, he signs a guy who was meh or below his whole career but who pitched like an elite setup man in September, and you know the GM+ has a horde of guys crunching numbers we can't even conceive of to try to determine whether the breakout was real, and this is your reaction? It's just filling a jersey?
Or are you not bothering to read what anyone else has to say? That's worse, I think.
I’m reading it, but you are saying a 31-year-old had a great September in a freakish season, but has been not so good since he was 25 otherwise... and thus this is a stroke of genius. That is giving a LOT of credit. If everyone who ever had a great month got paid for it, there’d be some really rich busts out there. It seems like you tend to look at brief performance boosts as signs of some huge adjustment, when more often they are the flukes that are built into baseball. He faced 40 batters in September/October. 8 appearances, of which he was unscored upon in 6. Through last season you were inundating us with numbers about all the scraps in the bullpen. Where are the Stocks, Springs, Coveys, and Godleys now? Again... I’m not attacking Bloom. He signed a filler. Needs to be done. I just think there is a Bloom worship that appears to lead people to think these moves are strokes of genius — the real Andriese was the September one! — when they are meh. Look, Manfred. There are new ways of determining whether a September like Andriese's is a fluke, or whether it's partly real, that would make your head explode.
"It seems like you tend to look at brief performance boosts as signs of some huge adjustment, when more often they are the flukes that are built into baseball."
No. No. No. That's not me that did that. That was Bloom and his team of ultra-geeks, armed with tools that made your head explode a sentence ago.
Furthermore, since he signed for more money than expected, we know that there was also at least one another team that saw what Bloom saw, that drove the bidding up. Probably, there were several.
I examined some Statcast data because I was curious to see what things Bloom and others may have seen in his September. None of that constitutes an argument that he will be good and well worth the money. That argument is that Bloom was hired by John Henry, Bloom and his team have data you and I can hardly imagine, and they (and the other smart teams they bid against) think he will be good and well worth the money.
Your argument amounts to (scratch that, it pretty much is) "I'm looking at his B-Ref page for a couple of minutes and I think I'm right, while the conclusion reached by the fifty (or whatever) hours of work that Bloom and his team put in (and was also reached by at least one other team) is wrong." That doesn't sound remotely rational to anyone; you're just talking to yourself rather than contributing to the discussion here. It sounds like you have a psychological need to be pessimistic about the Red Sox, which is something that was actually a good idea until 17 years ago. It's no longer a good idea.
Where are the Stocks, Springs, Coveys, and Godleys now? The only guy of those four I ever argued for was Godley, who was a beast on 5 days rest but couldn't pitch on less. Covey had OK numbers but they seemed uninterested in giving him a chance. Him and Springs and Stocks looked (and still look) like guys you'd like to have in the org as up-and-down depth; I don't think I said a word about upside about any of them.
And these guys were waiver claims, making MLB minimum. No competiton for their services, either, just a decision that a guy is worth taking a closer look at. The whole project produced two useful arms in
Valdez and Mazza, and you'll note that I've spent the winter saying that Valdez should be penciled in at AAA rather than counted on as the first option for the tier below the setup guys, which is to say the #5 guy in the pen ahead of Brice and Whitlock. Andriese now fills that role, and the odds of him filling it well are very good, and the odds of him giving us even more are good as well.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 25, 2020 13:47:49 GMT -5
Something I didn't stress enough ... expressed as part of a comment at The Athletic.
But the big thing is that he went from walking 12.8% of hitters earlier in the season to nobody, while getting 80% more swings and misses on pitches outside the zone than in his previous time as a reliever (2018 on), despite actually throwing slightly fewer of those sorts of pitches. That's an insane improvement in command (which you can see traces of in his changeup data). That the Sox signed him suggests that they've determined that at least some of that should carry forward.
In his previous two seasons as a reliever, Andriese's BB+HBP rate was .075. In early 2020 (pre-September), it was .128, an increase of 41%.
Would that be a motivation to make some kind of change to get better command?
He walked and hit no one in September.
What are the odds that you'd get that season in terms of BB+HBP rates?
1 in 1843.
I know what you're thinking ... I'm cherry-picking by just comparing his control struggle plus turnaround in 2020 to his relief years. But actually, I just thought it was the fair comparison.
If you compare it to his whole career, it's 1 in 6121 odds. That's a 1 in 58 chance of having control that bad in July and August, and a 1 in 105 chance of improving that much in September.
And, yeah, control is not command. Before 2020, 12.3% of his pitches were swings and misses outside the zone. That dropped to 9.1% in July and August of 2020, then was 21.5% in September.
The odds of him getting that many successful chases in September, based on his overall career rate to that point, are 1 in 3579.
The odds against that pattern, with the 26% decline in rate in July and August followed by a 136% improvement over that in September are 1 in 102,872.
Important note: what are we measuring here?
It's very clear that this was real. It wasn't pure luck. No one is saying that. The counter-argument to this is that this sort of thing happens all the time with MLB players where they get on a hot streak that ends up being not predictive.
So these are the odds of seeing this pattern as it develops. First, the decline, then the dramatic improvement which seems to be motivated by the decline.
What these numbers measure is the effect size.
Yes, guys get their mechanics messed up and suffer control and command problems all the time. Guys go on hot streaks where their mechanics are locked in and their command and control is better than usual, all the time.
Is this one of those "all the times?" That's the question that Bloom and his crew are trying to answer.
Your starting point in answering this question is always the size of the effect. How unlikely was this? Was it really the sort of thing we see all the time, one of "the flukes that are built into baseball," as Manfred puts it? And I'm not mocking that description, which is actually spot-on.
And the answer is, the effect size here was crazy big. You do see guys suffer a 1-in-12 odds of decline in command (as measured by successful-chase rate) all the time. You don't see guys improve 1 in 8621 mid-season. And that improvement therefore seems to caused by something, which was thus motivated by the decline.
The effect size tells you that he was very likely doing something different, not just running cold and then super hot.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 26, 2020 9:34:44 GMT -5
And the downside here is that the team may need to eat a lot of innings and Andriese does that with like a 94 ERA+, putting up a 1.2ish WAR for short money. If Grullon can't actually catch, then it's a marginal upgrade.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 27, 2020 2:52:55 GMT -5
MLB is reporting that Grullon is back with the Sox after having been waived by the Reds. Dude is a hot potato.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 27, 2020 3:57:46 GMT -5
MLB is reporting that Grullon is back with the Sox after having been waived by the Reds. Dude is a hot potato. I don't see it anywhere else and it also doesn't make sense. They would need a 40 man move for that. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 27, 2020 9:46:28 GMT -5
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Post by foreverred9 on Dec 27, 2020 10:20:56 GMT -5
Based on the date of that article being the 23rd, I assume that the writer misinterpreted the direction of that waiver claim. His player page doesn't show that transaction: www.mlb.com/player/deivy-grullon-620453 |
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Post by greenmonster on Dec 27, 2020 10:30:58 GMT -5
Is there some kind of Master Plan here? Did they just think he would clear waivers and they could move him off the 40-man, not expecting him to be claimed, and now they will try again? |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 27, 2020 11:46:35 GMT -5
Based on the date of that article being the 23rd, I assume that the writer misinterpreted the direction of that waiver claim. His player page doesn't show that transaction: www.mlb.com/player/deivy-grullon-620453This. The writer almost certainly misread the transaction line. The 40-man is full. They would've had to have cleared a spot to claim him. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 28, 2021 13:08:45 GMT -5
I don't mind the Matt Andriese signing. Basically seeing if last year was actually real. Yet I also don't see how that signing or depth guys should stop you from adding another guy. His bwar .1, -.2, -.8, 0 and .6 last year. He's been minus .3 bwar over the last five years. He had a drastic reduction in hits last year, yet it was only 16 games and 32 innings. If his hits jump back to his career norm you don't want him on the roster.
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Post by manfred on Jan 28, 2021 13:23:43 GMT -5
I don't mind the Matt Andriese signing. Basically seeing if last year was actually real. Yet I also don't see how that signing or depth guys should stop you from adding another guy. His bwar .1, -.2, -.8, 0 and .6 last year. He's been minus .3 bwar over the last five years. He had a drastic reduction in hits last year, yet it was only 16 games and 32 innings. If his hits jump back to his career norm you don't want him on the roster. I view Andriese as the equivalent of the utilityman who can’t hit at multiple positions. He is, at *best*, an average pitcher who is an ok reliever and capable of being a not-very-good starter. His career numbers as a starter basically say “at least he’s not Weber.” It is strange to me he is even really much in the conversation of meaningful moves. He’s never even been as good as 2019 Marcus Walden. Indeed, I should not speak so fast about Weber, whose bWAR last season equaled Andriese’s career high... from 2016. I’m not even entirely sure he’ll be on the team by the end of the year. |
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Post by incandenza on Jan 28, 2021 14:13:53 GMT -5
I don't mind the Matt Andriese signing. Basically seeing if last year was actually real. Yet I also don't see how that signing or depth guys should stop you from adding another guy. His bwar .1, -.2, -.8, 0 and .6 last year. He's been minus .3 bwar over the last five years. He had a drastic reduction in hits last year, yet it was only 16 games and 32 innings. If his hits jump back to his career norm you don't want him on the roster. What are we even supposed to see whether it was actually real? Last season he had a 4.50 ERA and a 4.29 FIP, compared to 4.57 and 4.29 for his career. And that 4.50 ERA was despite a .211 BABIP, so... yeah. Seems like pretty basic long reliever material to me. |
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Post by lennsakata on Jan 28, 2021 14:55:12 GMT -5
I don't mind the Matt Andriese signing. Basically seeing if last year was actually real. Yet I also don't see how that signing or depth guys should stop you from adding another guy. His bwar .1, -.2, -.8, 0 and .6 last year. He's been minus .3 bwar over the last five years. He had a drastic reduction in hits last year, yet it was only 16 games and 32 innings. If his hits jump back to his career norm you don't want him on the roster. What are we even supposed to see whether it was actually real? Last season he had a 4.50 ERA and a 4.29 FIP, compared to 4.57 and 4.29 for his career. And that 4.50 ERA was despite a .211 BABIP, so... yeah. Seems like pretty basic long reliever material to me. maybe referring to the way he ended the season? He had a great start in his first outing (5-2/3 shutout innings) to start the season then immediately went to the pen where he gave up 14 runs in is next 14 innings of relief. September hit and he pitched 12-2/3 innings with 2 hits, 0 BB's and no runs allowed with 13 k's. Its a small sample in an overall definition of mediocre career but maybe something clicked in terms of his pitch mix, mechanics or repertoire. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 28, 2021 15:03:53 GMT -5
I don't mind the Matt Andriese signing. Basically seeing if last year was actually real. Yet I also don't see how that signing or depth guys should stop you from adding another guy. His bwar .1, -.2, -.8, 0 and .6 last year. He's been minus .3 bwar over the last five years. He had a drastic reduction in hits last year, yet it was only 16 games and 32 innings. If his hits jump back to his career norm you don't want him on the roster. What are we even supposed to see whether it was actually real? Last season he had a 4.50 ERA and a 4.29 FIP, compared to 4.57 and 4.29 for his career. And that 4.50 ERA was despite a .211 BABIP, so... yeah. Seems like pretty basic long reliever material to me. I don't even look at ERA and I'm not a huge fan of FIP. They can say whatever they want, yet if he's a 1.0 WHIP guy with 9 plus strikeouts per game that's a valuable player, compared to his career WHIP of 1.305 What am I looking for? That those results were driven by a career low fast ball usage and a new slider and not just BAbip luck or just small sample size crap. Our GM had to see something to give him a deal he did with an option year right? |
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Post by manfred on Jan 28, 2021 15:21:53 GMT -5
What are we even supposed to see whether it was actually real? Last season he had a 4.50 ERA and a 4.29 FIP, compared to 4.57 and 4.29 for his career. And that 4.50 ERA was despite a .211 BABIP, so... yeah. Seems like pretty basic long reliever material to me. I don't even look at ERA and I'm not a huge fan of FIP. They can say whatever they want, yet if he's a 1.0 WHIP guy with 9 plus strikeouts per game that's a valuable player, compared to his career WHIP of 1.305 What am I looking for? That those results were driven by a career low fast ball usage and a new slider and not just BAbip luck or just small sample size crap. Our GM had to see something to give him a deal he did with an option year right? The thing is, his WHIP has been consistently the career mark. At the same rime, people look at the tiny sample at the end of last year — combine it with the assumption that Bloom is the mighty Oz — and “bam” — changed man! June 2015 — 21 innings, WHIP .0762 (season: 1.325) May 2016 — 34 innings, WHIP .932 (season: career best 1.222) May 2018 — 17.2 innings, WHIP 1.14 (season: 1.386) My point is: his mini streak of strong pitching is hardly unprecedented and does not suggest he’s broken out. It is relatively typical for his career. He’s 31, he’s been remarkably consistent year to year. Why expect him to be anything else? |
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Post by incandenza on Jan 28, 2021 15:54:26 GMT -5
What are we even supposed to see whether it was actually real? Last season he had a 4.50 ERA and a 4.29 FIP, compared to 4.57 and 4.29 for his career. And that 4.50 ERA was despite a .211 BABIP, so... yeah. Seems like pretty basic long reliever material to me. I don't even look at ERA and I'm not a huge fan of FIP. They can say whatever they want, yet if he's a 1.0 WHIP guy with 9 plus strikeouts per game that's a valuable player, compared to his career WHIP of 1.305 What am I looking for? That those results were driven by a career low fast ball usage and a new slider and not just BAbip luck or just small sample size crap. Our GM had to see something to give him a deal he did with an option year right? What manfred said. Plus: his BABIP last season was .211. There's no way you can go that low without it being at least largely about luck.
It's not literally impossible that Bloom saw something that was clearly evident in the tiny 12 inning sample at the end of last season that will turn him into a new pitcher at age 31. But there's just nothing in the numbers of any significance to suggest that.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 28, 2021 16:29:14 GMT -5
I don't even look at ERA and I'm not a huge fan of FIP. They can say whatever they want, yet if he's a 1.0 WHIP guy with 9 plus strikeouts per game that's a valuable player, compared to his career WHIP of 1.305 What am I looking for? That those results were driven by a career low fast ball usage and a new slider and not just BAbip luck or just small sample size crap. Our GM had to see something to give him a deal he did with an option year right? The thing is, his WHIP has been consistently the career mark. At the same rime, people look at the tiny sample at the end of last year — combine it with the assumption that Bloom is the mighty Oz — and “bam” — changed man! June 2015 — 21 innings, WHIP .0762 (season: 1.325) May 2016 — 34 innings, WHIP .932 (season: career best 1.222) May 2018 — 17.2 innings, WHIP 1.14 (season: 1.386) My point is: his mini streak of strong pitching is hardly unprecedented and does not suggest he’s broken out. It is relatively typical for his career. He’s 31, he’s been remarkably consistent year to year. Why expect him to be anything else? While I mostly agree, relief pitchers break out all the time. It can be as simple as a new pitch or changing the mix. Hence I'll give him a shot, yet I'm also bringing in more guys. I want a camp where you might have too many guys versus not enough. I think there's a world in-between you and Eric's views, that's where I am. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 28, 2021 16:36:27 GMT -5
I don't even look at ERA and I'm not a huge fan of FIP. They can say whatever they want, yet if he's a 1.0 WHIP guy with 9 plus strikeouts per game that's a valuable player, compared to his career WHIP of 1.305 What am I looking for? That those results were driven by a career low fast ball usage and a new slider and not just BAbip luck or just small sample size crap. Our GM had to see something to give him a deal he did with an option year right? What manfred said. Plus: his BABIP last season was .211. There's no way you can go that low without it being at least largely about luck.
It's not literally impossible that Bloom saw something that was clearly evident in the tiny 12 inning sample at the end of last season that will turn him into a new pitcher at age 31. But there's just nothing in the numbers of any significance to suggest that.
What are the numbers that show a guy has broken out versus a hot streak or luck? I'm not that high on him, yet I'm also willing to at least give him a chance. |
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