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Red Sox FA Target: Garrett Richards (Signed)
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 23, 2021 9:32:29 GMT -5
When he's healthy he's been really good. I hope if it happens this is a 1 year deal. Easy to flip at the deadline. I did like what he did for the Padres out of the pen too. Worst case scenario he'd probably be a valuable pen piece.
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Post by longgone24 on Jan 23, 2021 9:40:12 GMT -5
So we have roughly 23M to stay under the tax I would think Richards takes up at least 6-8 with needs for CF, RP and a LH bench bat? I would really prefer 2 Bullpen arms... Depending on the Medicals I would rather go for the Big Maple instead of Richards.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Jan 23, 2021 9:55:28 GMT -5
Sign him. Based on what Quintana & Happ signed for ($8M per) I think he should come in right around there, possibly on a 2-3 year deal. When he's healthy he's a solid mid-rotation guy with possible upside for more. His injury history primarily centers around his elbow and the TJ procedure he should have had in '16/'17 but he chose to try to rest & rehab instead. Frankly, I'm surprised the Angels aren't going hard after him with their history, their need for more pitching, and the fact that he's pitched his whole career on the west coast. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll snag him, but I'm sure we aren't the only ones looking to add him either.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 23, 2021 10:03:23 GMT -5
Sign him. Based on what Quintana & Happ signed for ($8M per) I think he should come in right around there, possibly on a 2-3 year deal. When he's healthy he's a solid mid-rotation guy with possible upside for more. His injury history primarily centers around his elbow and the TJ procedure he should have had in '16/'17 but he chose to try to rest & rehab instead. Frankly, I'm surprised the Angels aren't going hard after him with their history, their need for more pitching, and the fact that he's pitched his whole career on the west coast. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll snag him, but I'm sure we aren't the only ones looking to add him either. So, if the Sox had $30 million, you feel good about spending half that on a utilityman and a guy who has thrown 198 innings since 2015? And to free that money, they’ll get rid of 2/3 of their 2018 outfield? That feels like a step forward?
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Post by jdb on Jan 23, 2021 10:09:24 GMT -5
I also think we acquire a starter in a trade that’s nearly ready. Marlins have rumored to be on Benni and and kicking tires on the catching market.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 23, 2021 10:17:19 GMT -5
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 23, 2021 10:25:46 GMT -5
Sign him. Based on what Quintana & Happ signed for ($8M per) I think he should come in right around there, possibly on a 2-3 year deal. When he's healthy he's a solid mid-rotation guy with possible upside for more. His injury history primarily centers around his elbow and the TJ procedure he should have had in '16/'17 but he chose to try to rest & rehab instead. Frankly, I'm surprised the Angels aren't going hard after him with their history, their need for more pitching, and the fact that he's pitched his whole career on the west coast. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll snag him, but I'm sure we aren't the only ones looking to add him either. So, if the Sox had $30 million, you feel good about spending half that on a utilityman and a guy who has thrown 198 innings since 2015? And to free that money, they’ll get rid of 2/3 of their 2018 outfield? That feels like a step forward? I look at this off season the way I looked at it when the Sox signed Lugo. I wasn't a huge fan of the move but hoped for the best. Hernandez makes sense with Downs being almost ready. He can play anywhere. Maybe they get lucky and he becomes the Sox version of Ben Zobrist. Richards is a pure wild card but if its a 1 year deal then I'm okay with it. The team needs a closer bad. Even if it is a 4th place squad.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 23, 2021 10:35:12 GMT -5
So, if the Sox had $30 million, you feel good about spending half that on a utilityman and a guy who has thrown 198 innings since 2015? And to free that money, they’ll get rid of 2/3 of their 2018 outfield? That feels like a step forward? I look at this off season the way I looked at it when the Sox signed Lugo. I wasn't a huge fan of the move but hoped for the best. Hernandez makes sense with Downs being almost ready. He can play anywhere. Maybe they get lucky and he becomes the Sox version of Ben Zobrist. Richards is a pure wild card but if its a 1 year deal then I'm okay with it. The team needs a closer bad. Even if it is a 4th place squad. But Hernandez and likely Richards will be on multiyear deals. So if they are in a medium-term build, why reduce flexibility *next* off-season with small parts? So now they’ll probably look to sell some parts. I’m fine with that at this point. But the idea of letting JBJ walk to sign Hernandez and Richards (who will cost more combined than JBJ, I’m sure) is just so frustrating. I’m sick of pleading poverty for beloved players and then turning around and misusing the money you might otherwise have used. I’d rather, for example, they signed no one, sucked, but pooled the free money and used it to extend Devers (I know it doesn’t literally work like that...). But heaven help us, a few years from now we’ll be caught with a roster of Kikés and Richardses and end up having to dump him too.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 23, 2021 10:39:16 GMT -5
I look at this off season the way I looked at it when the Sox signed Lugo. I wasn't a huge fan of the move but hoped for the best. Hernandez makes sense with Downs being almost ready. He can play anywhere. Maybe they get lucky and he becomes the Sox version of Ben Zobrist. Richards is a pure wild card but if its a 1 year deal then I'm okay with it. The team needs a closer bad. Even if it is a 4th place squad. But Hernandez and likely Richards will be on multiyear deals. So if they are in a medium-term build, why reduce flexibility *next* off-season with small parts? So now they’ll probably look to sell some parts. I’m fine with that at this point. But the idea of letting JBJ walk to sign Hernandez and Richards (who will cost more combined than JBJ, I’m sure) is just so frustrating. I’m sick of pleading poverty for beloved players and then turning around and misusing the money you might otherwise have used. I’d rather, for example, they signed no one, sucked, but pooled the free money and used it to extend Devers (I know it doesn’t literally work like that...). But heaven help us, a few years from now we’ll be caught with a roster of Kikés and Richardses and end up having to dump him too. Hernandez is on a 2 year deal and it remains to be seen what Richards gets should he sign here. I agree if its more than a 1 or 2 year deal it'd be a bad signing. Should they sign Richards to a 2 year deal I dont see how signing Richards and Hernandez impacts there flexibility next off season or for the future.
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Post by chr31ter on Jan 23, 2021 10:39:19 GMT -5
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Post by southernredsoxality on Jan 23, 2021 10:53:41 GMT -5
I guess we’re due to hit on one of this pitching restoration projects at some point in our history, but the track record sure has sucked on these. From Saberhagen to R. Martinez, Wade Miller, Penny, Smoltz... yikes. We haven’t even had a one of this guys make it through a full season, let alone pitch well in it.
I would’ve much prefer a healthier guy unless we’re getting him at a lot less than the 7-8 mill for one year that’s been thrown around.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 23, 2021 10:59:24 GMT -5
I guess we’re due to hit on one of this pitching restoration projects at some point in our history, but the track record sure has sucked on these. From Saberhagen to R. Martinez, Wade Miller, Penny, Smoltz... yikes. We haven’t even had a one of this guys make it through a full season, let alone pitch well in it. I would’ve much prefer a healthier guy unless we’re getting him at a lot less than the 7-8 mill for one year that’s been thrown around. What was wrong with Saberhagen? He was pretty damn solid in 98 and 99. David Cone wasn't too bad either.
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Post by chr31ter on Jan 23, 2021 10:59:40 GMT -5
So, at this point, potential starters on the 40-man roster include Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Connor Seabold, and maybe even Chris Mazza.
Sale and Eovaldi are the only ones the Red Sox are committed to past this season, and Sale is the only one they're committed to past 2021.
So, basically, it sounds like the strategy here is throw eight or nine guys at the five rotation spots, use the entire 2021 season to evaluate, and then figure out who you want for 2022.
I'm OK with that as a plan.
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Post by longgone24 on Jan 23, 2021 11:02:59 GMT -5
I guess we’re due to hit on one of this pitching restoration projects at some point in our history, but the track record sure has sucked on these. From Saberhagen to R. Martinez, Wade Miller, Penny, Smoltz... yikes. We haven’t even had a one of this guys make it through a full season, let alone pitch well in it. I would’ve much prefer a healthier guy unless we’re getting him at a lot less than the 7-8 mill for one year that’s been thrown around. What was wrong with Saberhagen? He was pretty damn solid in 98 and 99. David Cone wasn't too bad either.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 23, 2021 11:11:50 GMT -5
I actually hit "Create Post" to say that I wasn't going to take a deep look at his stats (trust Bloom!), but who am I kidding?
And holy wow ... my favorite toy is splits by batting order position as a proxy for opponent hitter quality. You want to avoid guys who get killed by 3 and 4 hitters and feast on 7 through 9.
.671 1 and 2 hitters .708 3 and 4 hitters .688 5 and 6 hitters .623 7 through 9
And the last line includes .685 versus 7 and 8!
It's the flattest set of numbers I've ever seen.
He's not as good out of the stretch as he is with a windup -- .637 empty, .710 men on. That of course leads to a bigger game-to-game variance.
And how about these splits by groups of 25 pitches: .738, .676, .575, .635. That's going to underlie his times-around-order split (.734, .581, .657) because guys who have flat batting order splits also tend to have small times-through-order splits.
Those pitch-count splits suggests a guy whose mechanics usually settle in as he goes along.
His Statcast numbers last year were not impressive. He's been awful in Fenway. But just this cursory look reinforces the notion that he fits the criterion: 4 starter floor, big upside.
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Post by greenmonster on Jan 23, 2021 11:13:08 GMT -5
So, at this point, potential starters on the 40-man roster include Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Connor Seabold, and maybe even Chris Mazza. Sale and Eovaldi are the only ones the Red Sox are committed to past this season, and Sale is the only one they're committed to past 2021. So, basically, it sounds like the strategy here is throw eight or nine guys at the five rotation spots, use the entire 2021 season to evaluate, and then figure out who you want for 2022. I'm OK with that as a plan. Also, guys like Andriese, Perez, & Richards have all showed some promise in the pen so any of them could flex into the pen if/when Sale and Edro are ready for a bigger role in the rotation.... I am not saying this is a perfect plan but I am happy to see that there might actually be a plan.
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Post by Canseco on Jan 23, 2021 11:19:45 GMT -5
A one-year deal would be outstanding; a two-year deal would be acceptable; anything beyond two years would be “Raiders of the Lost Ark” face melting scene material.
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Post by southernredsoxality on Jan 23, 2021 11:19:55 GMT -5
I guess we’re due to hit on one of this pitching restoration projects at some point in our history, but the track record sure has sucked on these. From Saberhagen to R. Martinez, Wade Miller, Penny, Smoltz... yikes. We haven’t even had a one of this guys make it through a full season, let alone pitch well in it. I would’ve much prefer a healthier guy unless we’re getting him at a lot less than the 7-8 mill for one year that’s been thrown around. What was wrong with Saberhagen? He was pretty damn solid in 98 and 99. David Cone wasn't too bad either. He still didn’t make it through either of those seasons healthy, neither did Cone for his one year, that’s what was wrong. Although if Richards has a Saberhagen like 98 or 99, that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world with Sale coming back as well as some of the kids being ready later in the year.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 23, 2021 11:35:45 GMT -5
What was wrong with Saberhagen? He was pretty damn solid in 98 and 99. David Cone wasn't too bad either. He still didn’t make it through either of those seasons healthy, neither did Cone for his one year, that’s what was wrong. Although if Richards has a Saberhagen like 98 or 99, that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world with Sale coming back as well as some of the kids being ready later in the year. Saberhagen made 31 starts in 98. I'm not sure what else you'd be looking for out of a reclamation project.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 23, 2021 11:49:41 GMT -5
I look at this off season the way I looked at it when the Sox signed Lugo. I wasn't a huge fan of the move but hoped for the best. Hernandez makes sense with Downs being almost ready. He can play anywhere. Maybe they get lucky and he becomes the Sox version of Ben Zobrist. Richards is a pure wild card but if its a 1 year deal then I'm okay with it. The team needs a closer bad. Even if it is a 4th place squad. But Hernandez and likely Richards will be on multiyear deals. So if they are in a medium-term build, why reduce flexibility *next* off-season with small parts? So now they’ll probably look to sell some parts. I’m fine with that at this point. But the idea of letting JBJ walk to sign Hernandez and Richards (who will cost more combined than JBJ, I’m sure) is just so frustrating. I’m sick of pleading poverty for beloved players and then turning around and misusing the money you might otherwise have used. I’d rather, for example, they signed no one, sucked, but pooled the free money and used it to extend Devers (I know it doesn’t literally work like that...). But heaven help us, a few years from now we’ll be caught with a roster of Kikés and Richardses and end up having to dump him too. Bradley bwar the last three years 6.2, Hernandez is 6.5 and Hernandez has had the better overall season. I don't get being upset by this because it wasn't Bradley on a bigger longer deal. The rumored Bradley deal has a much better chance of being an anchor in the future. We'll see what the finishing touches are, yet it's starting to come together and make sense.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 23, 2021 12:02:10 GMT -5
But Hernandez and likely Richards will be on multiyear deals. So if they are in a medium-term build, why reduce flexibility *next* off-season with small parts? So now they’ll probably look to sell some parts. I’m fine with that at this point. But the idea of letting JBJ walk to sign Hernandez and Richards (who will cost more combined than JBJ, I’m sure) is just so frustrating. I’m sick of pleading poverty for beloved players and then turning around and misusing the money you might otherwise have used. I’d rather, for example, they signed no one, sucked, but pooled the free money and used it to extend Devers (I know it doesn’t literally work like that...). But heaven help us, a few years from now we’ll be caught with a roster of Kikés and Richardses and end up having to dump him too. Bradley bwar the last three years 6.2, Hernandez is 6.5 and Hernandez has had the better overall season. I don't get being upset by this because it wasn't Bradley on a bigger longer deal. The rumored Bradley deal has a much better chance of being an anchor in the future. We'll see what the finishing touches are, yet it's starting to come together and make sense. I wrote elsewhere about how suspect Hernandez’s bWAR is: most obviously, for one thing, more than half the total came from one season, three years ago. And in the next season, where his bWAR dropped by a 1/3, it was 2.2 total, but 1.6 dWAR (a number JBJ has been consistently shafted on, by the way). So if you think Hernandez is worth it as a *defense* upgrade over JBJ, those stats support that rather dubious case. But over the course of a career running roughly the same span, JBJ has nearly doubled him in bWAR, and he has been a far more predictably productive player. If you want to talk savings etc, fine. But this is the kind of blather that is setting my hair on fire this off season: don’t pretend replacing JBJ with Kiké is a talent upgrade — or even push. That move might make them cheaper, which might have positive results in the future, but it also makes them worse.
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Post by tyler3 on Jan 23, 2021 12:27:27 GMT -5
I think JBJ is gonna get paid a lot for for like 3 years. Hernandez gives you flexibility with Duran or Downs depending on what they do in AA, AAA. With that flexibility you can also get a guy like Richards who I view similar to Kluber with the exception that Richards was pumping 95 last season albeit a half season. I haven’t seen anything (knock on wood) suggesting injury since that prolonged period where he tried to avoid TJ. My guess is if they get Richards, we’ll see the other shoe drop quick if it’s a trade. Anyway appreciate you guys and we’ll see.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jan 23, 2021 12:36:09 GMT -5
So, at this point, potential starters on the 40-man roster include Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, Garrett Richards, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Connor Seabold, and maybe even Chris Mazza. Sale and Eovaldi are the only ones the Red Sox are committed to past this season, and Sale is the only one they're committed to past 2021. So, basically, it sounds like the strategy here is throw eight or nine guys at the five rotation spots, use the entire 2021 season to evaluate, and then figure out who you want for 2022. I'm OK with that as a plan. The other Garrett, Whitlock, has to be considered as well.He's on the 40 man and must remain on the ML roster the whole season.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 23, 2021 12:36:20 GMT -5
I look at this off season the way I looked at it when the Sox signed Lugo. I wasn't a huge fan of the move but hoped for the best. Hernandez makes sense with Downs being almost ready. He can play anywhere. Maybe they get lucky and he becomes the Sox version of Ben Zobrist. Richards is a pure wild card but if its a 1 year deal then I'm okay with it. The team needs a closer bad. Even if it is a 4th place squad. But Hernandez and likely Richards will be on multiyear deals. So if they are in a medium-term build, why reduce flexibility *next* off-season with small parts? So now they’ll probably look to sell some parts. I’m fine with that at this point. But the idea of letting JBJ walk to sign Hernandez and Richards (who will cost more combined than JBJ, I’m sure) is just so frustrating. I’m sick of pleading poverty for beloved players and then turning around and misusing the money you might otherwise have used. I’d rather, for example, they signed no one, sucked, but pooled the free money and used it to extend Devers (I know it doesn’t literally work like that...). But heaven help us, a few years from now we’ll be caught with a roster of Kikés and Richardses and end up having to dump him too. Richards probably signs for 1yr/$8m or 2yr/$16m(something like that)? I doubt anyone would give him a 3rd year. So he doesn’t break the bank or limit their future in any way. I guess I don’t understand all the sentimentality over someone like JBJ? This was a “beloved player”? A great glove with a below league-average bat? You haven’t seen enough of that by now? I’m ready to move on. I definitely agree on Devers, but the next couple years are about clearing the books(Price, JDM, Pedroia, Eovaldi) and retooling. Devers should be part of that plan.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 23, 2021 12:47:45 GMT -5
But Hernandez and likely Richards will be on multiyear deals. So if they are in a medium-term build, why reduce flexibility *next* off-season with small parts? So now they’ll probably look to sell some parts. I’m fine with that at this point. But the idea of letting JBJ walk to sign Hernandez and Richards (who will cost more combined than JBJ, I’m sure) is just so frustrating. I’m sick of pleading poverty for beloved players and then turning around and misusing the money you might otherwise have used. I’d rather, for example, they signed no one, sucked, but pooled the free money and used it to extend Devers (I know it doesn’t literally work like that...). But heaven help us, a few years from now we’ll be caught with a roster of Kikés and Richardses and end up having to dump him too. Richards probably signs for 1yr/$8m or 2yr/$16m(something like that). I doubt anyone would give him a 3rd year. So he doesn’t break the bank or limit their future in any way. I guess I don’t understand all the sentimentality over someone like JBJ? This was a “beloved player”? A great glove with a below league-average bat? You haven’t seen enough of that by now? I’m ready to move on. I definitely agree on Devers, but the next couple years are about clearing the books(Price, JDM, Pedroia, Eovaldi) and retooling. Devers should be part of that plan. I guess the flip side is: why on the one hand be praying to clear the books of Eovaldi but pursuing a guy who is a very similar pitcher... while also stripping yourself for parts? I’m looking at this in the context of the post-2018 glow. In that time, they’ve overspent on Eovaldi, decided to dump stars they can’t afford, BUT taken on money that seems pointless. Let’s put it this way: let’s assume you get 5 wins out of Kiké and Richards... so now you are, what, an 87-88 win team? But that is $15 million that doesn’t do anything for a long term goal either. It’d rather it were dedicated to year one of Devers’ extension so we know he is locked in for 6-7 years as an example. Add: because I don’t want them to sign the Andrieses, Hernandezes, and Richardses, and then as Devers approaches FA, have them wring their hands and say “we’re close to the penalty and don’t want to pay it.” We’ve been there already.
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