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Red Sox FA Target: Garrett Richards (Signed)
nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 23, 2021 17:03:29 GMT -5
This is fine by me for sure. Hope he kills it like Beltre’s pillow contract
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Post by manfred on Jan 23, 2021 17:09:44 GMT -5
I noticed the writer said “seemed.” It was interesting that the writer who *seems* not to be a doctor or to have seen the scans calls into question what was clearly a diagnosis: the scan showed no damage. Then he goes on to say Richards was healthy the next spring. I can tell you, having had Tommy John, the injury is not one comes and goes: if you have a blown elbow, you don’t come to spring good to go, start strong, then feel bad again. It is constant agony. I'm sorry but that's just not true, it depends what grade tear you have in the UCL and how your body responds. Everyone is different, we've seen some guys go years and other like Sale get TJ because the plasma injection didn't work. I'm fairly certain you know this. www.mlb.com/news/garrett-richards-to-have-tommy-john-surgery-c285379814He's not talking about constant agony, just arm not bouncing back and velocity loss. It doesn’t matter. He’s signed. Are you taking the over on over/under 20 starts? And in the end, I applaud this signing as it is only for one year. I said from the start I don’t care what they do this year... pay Richards $20 million for all I care. (I mean in a vacuum, of course, since I’m bummed to see JBJ likely out for lack of some combination of funds and interest.) It’ll be another year with a lineup incrementally less likable than 2018’s squad that was led by young, homegrown guys dancing in the outfield. But at least one year deals all come out in the wash. I assumed this would be worse.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 23, 2021 17:17:19 GMT -5
I am assuming they don’t have space left in the budget. Could be wrong, sure. You are probably right on JBJ however, I could see a scenario where they go over the luxury tax by a small amount to bring back Bradley. If they are competing for the playoffs it'll be worth it go over the tax. If they aren't competitive at the deadline trade whoever is needed to get back under the tax. Of course you sign JBJ and go a bit over the tax.
Why did they sign Richards? To contend, as they have always said they plan to. So we stop adding necessary parts now?
Furthermore, going a bit over the tax limit probably pays for itself (in the long run) by tickets bought by people who suddenly wake up and realize that the Sox have not suddenly become a penny-pinching team (and are not running Baseball Ops out of the basement of a pizza place).
And if you contend, well, that's what it took. If it all goes south and you're not contending, you trade some folks to get under. Trading Richards and Barnes at the All-Star break would save you $7M.
Will they contend? I have never seen a Sox team with a rotation that collectively had such a large range out of outcomes. If they're right about the upsides of Houck, Pivetta, and Richards, and E-Rod, Eovaldi and eventually Sale all pitch as well as they have proven they are capable of pitching -- that's a crazy good rotation. I don't think I need to spell out the opposite (especially since manfred will do that for me! Said with affection).
They found themselves in a position where the smart thing to do was to try to strike gold with upside guys. Last year they were limited to doing it with waiver claims. This year they've been able to shop more upscale.
And of course Benny, Dalbec, JDM, Arroyo, and maybe Devers' defense all have big outcome ranges among the position players. No wonder why the optimists and pessimists are living on different planets! It's going to be an incredibly interesting season.
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Post by unitspin on Jan 23, 2021 17:35:16 GMT -5
What is ppls definition of contending? If it is a high probability of the playoffs and a chance at a title this red sox team is not it. If we are lucky we are the 3rd best team in the AL east. The yanks have not really addressed their rotation even after adding a lottery ticket but their lineup is stacked and they play in a little league field for half their games. Also they still have a top tier bullpen. I don't see the sox beating them back in the standings. The rays have shed some real good player but still have a good enough team to make a run. The sox if everyone has career years could possible pass them in the standings, very slim chance. The blue jays have added to an already very good team and look to be the best team in the division as of right now. Are the sox beating them in the standings? The playoffs for the red sox this season is a long shot, so them being a contending team seems like an overreach.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 23, 2021 17:36:27 GMT -5
Following the Richards signing, here are fangraphs projections for total starting pitching WAR for each of the AL East teams:
17.9 12.9 12.6 11.2 6.9
Anyone want to guess which one is the Red Sox? And which one is the defending AL champions?
ADD: Here's a complete list of AL teams who project for more SP WAR than the Red Sox:
NY 17.9 CWS 13.6 OAK 13.3 TOR 12.9 MIN 12.8
Boston is 12.6. They're within 1 WAR of every AL team but the Yankees.
There are caveats, of course: some free agents are still to sign with other teams, and the Sox rotation clearly has some downside potential. But the whole point is that it has upside potential as well, and if Sale comes back strong it could potentially match up with anybody in the playoffs.
Which is to say: the argument that they're simply punting on this season and have no chance to compete (even as they approach the CBT limit in signing free agents!) makes no sense at all to me.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 23, 2021 17:37:35 GMT -5
You are probably right on JBJ however, I could see a scenario where they go over the luxury tax by a small amount to bring back Bradley. If they are competing for the playoffs it'll be worth it go over the tax. If they aren't competitive at the deadline trade whoever is needed to get back under the tax. Of course you sign JBJ and go a bit over the tax.
Why did they sign Richards? To contend, as they have always said they plan to. So we stop adding necessary parts now?
Furthermore, going a bit over the tax limit probably pays for itself (in the long run) by tickets bought by people who suddenly wake up and realize that the Sox have not suddenly become a penny-pinching team (and are not running Baseball Ops out of the basement of a pizza place).
And if you contend, well, that's what it took. If it all goes south and you're not contending, you trade some folks to get under. Trading Richards and Barnes at the All-Star break would save you $7M.
Will they contend? I have never seen a Sox team with a rotation that collectively had such a large range out of outcomes. If they're right about the upsides of Houck, Pivetta, and Richards, and E-Rod, Eovaldi and eventually Sale all pitch as well as they have proven they are capable of pitching -- that's a crazy good rotation. I don't think I need to spell out the opposite (especially since manfred will do that for me! Said with affection).
They found themselves in a position where the smart thing to do was to try to strike gold with upside guys. Last year they were limited to doing it with waiver claims. This year they've been able to shop more upscale.
And of course Benny, Dalbec, JDM, Arroyo, and maybe Devers' defense all have big outcome ranges among the position players. No wonder why the optimists and pessimists are living on different planets! It's going to be an incredibly interesting season.
The odds of them going over the tax this year is approximately zero. There is certainly no chance they’d do it to sign a guy like Bradley. You really think JBJ is selling tickets?? If there are even fans allowed at the games?? No chance. He’s hardly the missing piece.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 23, 2021 17:38:54 GMT -5
I hoped for $10M combined for Richards and KH. However, it’s not my money and I don’t control a market which I thought would be softer. I do like the shorter deals with team options. It gives them flexibility to trade for prospects if they flourish or cut ties after’21 if they falter. Barring a Beni trade, they have $13M (probably closer to $10M accounting for callups). I still think they can go the CF/RP route but recent signings limit their options if they want to stay under the tax. Two potential paths: Get the band back together: JBJ and a cheap reliever, maybe a Workman reunion. Workman slots in middle relief/setup. JBJ re-unites the ‘20 OF. Renfroe primarily plays against lefties. KH splits time at 2b and you sprinkle him at other positions, always getting him in against lefties. Bolster the pen, roster mix and match - Colome to compete with Barnes as closer. Go cheap to get another CF option, Almora or Pillar. With a Beni trade, maybe you could squeeze LaStella under the cap. He becomes the everyday 2b and gives Dalbec a breather at 1b against some righties. It fills all the roster needs but I think the LaStella ship may have sailed while it marginalizes Arroyo’s use and value, I do not see how you can do all that on $13 million unless Bloom can do a loaves and fishes routine. I have Faith....and genuflect.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 23, 2021 18:28:00 GMT -5
10 million seems a tad steep but for just 1 year I'm not going to complain. I foresee many comments questioning why they didn't sign Kluber instead though. Main reason: Kluber wanted to sign with the team that employs his trainer. It would have required a huge overpay to get Kluber to sign with Boston (and even that may not have worked). No thanks. Some guys might not want to play in Boston (as their home), some might have specific reasons for signing with a certain team. It takes two to tango and it's not always Bloom/Red Sox decision or their unwillingness to match an offer as the reason a deal doesn't get done. In total agree!! Players have preferences and they simply choose to play elsewhere. The RS are only one of 30 teams. The largest $ would NOT be my number 1 criteria. Safety, weather, schools, taxes,...,Bloom has no control over any of these things yet many people blame him for everything.
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Post by dirtdog on Jan 23, 2021 19:44:45 GMT -5
Richards has had his share if injuries. Isnt he the one that blew his knee out at Fenway a few years back?
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Post by unitspin on Jan 23, 2021 19:46:31 GMT -5
Following the Richards signing, here are fangraphs projections for total starting pitching WAR for each of the AL East teams:
17.9 12.9 12.6 11.2 6.9
Anyone want to guess which one is the Red Sox? And which one is the defending AL champions?
ADD: Here's a complete list of AL teams who project for more SP WAR than the Red Sox:
NY 17.9 CWS 13.6 OAK 13.3 TOR 12.9 MIN 12.8
Boston is 12.6. They're within 1 WAR of every AL team but the Yankees.
There are caveats, of course: some free agents are still to sign with other teams, and the Sox rotation clearly has some downside potential. But the whole point is that it has upside potential as well, and if Sale comes back strong it could potentially match up with anybody in the playoffs.
Which is to say: the argument that they're simply punting on this season and have no chance to compete (even as they approach the CBT limit in signing free agents!) makes no sense at all to me.
Red Sox are 35-1 to win the WS right now. There is a chance to compete just a very small one.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 23, 2021 20:13:47 GMT -5
Richards has had his share if injuries. Isnt he the one that blew his knee out at Fenway a few years back? "The Angels’ pennant hopes were dealt a serious blow Wednesday night when Garrett Richards, their best pitcher this season, suffered a patellar injury to his left knee during an 8-3 win over the Boston Red Sox in Fenway Park. With runners on first and second and one out in the second inning, Brock Holt hit a grounder to first baseman Albert Pujols, who spun and fired to second for a force out. Richards sprinted from the mound toward first to receive a relay from shortstop Erick Aybar, but as he approached the bag, he caught his right cleat in the dirt, and his knee buckled." www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-angels-garrett-richards-leg-injury-20140820-story.html
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 23, 2021 20:29:36 GMT -5
Following the Richards signing, here are fangraphs projections for total starting pitching WAR for each of the AL East teams: 17.9 12.9 12.6 11.2 6.9 Anyone want to guess which one is the Red Sox? And which one is the defending AL champions? ADD: Here's a complete list of AL teams who project for more SP WAR than the Red Sox: NY 17.9 CWS 13.6 OAK 13.3 TOR 12.9 MIN 12.8 Boston is 12.6. They're within 1 WAR of every AL team but the Yankees.
There are caveats, of course: some free agents are still to sign with other teams, and the Sox rotation clearly has some downside potential. But the whole point is that it has upside potential as well, and if Sale comes back strong it could potentially match up with anybody in the playoffs. Which is to say: the argument that they're simply punting on this season and have no chance to compete (even as they approach the CBT limit in signing free agents!) makes no sense at all to me.
Red Sox are 35-1 to win the WS right now. There is a chance to compete just a very small one. Guys don't set yourselves up for angst, anger and disappointment. Let's hope and revel in a rise to mediocrity this season. That's ok. Reality is that we have no earthly reason to expect to compete at top level this year. The plan is to reset the tax and develop the farm for long term success while maintaining fan interest. In a 30 team sea, the Queen takes time to change course. We have a good captain.
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Post by manfred on Jan 23, 2021 20:46:29 GMT -5
Red Sox are 35-1 to win the WS right now. There is a chance to compete just a very small one. Guys don't set yourselves up for angst, anger and disappointment. Let's hope and revel in a rise to mediocrity this season. That's ok. Reality is that we have no earthly reason to expect to compete at top level this year. The plan is to reset the tax and develop the farm for long term success while maintaining fan interest. In a 30 team sea, the Queen takes time to change course. We have a good captain. “We have a good Captain,” said the passengers of the Titanic from April 10 to April 14, 1912. I’m not saying the iceberg is coming... I’m just saying it is generous to say so part of the way through off-season two coning off of what was a 100-loss pace season.
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Post by unitspin on Jan 23, 2021 21:16:32 GMT -5
I too think bloom is a good capt. That is why I think realistically this team is setup to compete in 2022. It stinks saying that this season is going to be a tough watch but if it gets the red sox to a good title window I'll live. I'm just excited to see what we have in our prospects. If a couple flash real potential this season it will soften the blow of another losing season.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 23, 2021 21:26:20 GMT -5
The Richards signing is the kind of move the RS should be making this off-season. It's one year for a guy with upside. (I'm defining upside as making regular rotation turns with a league average ERA.)
If he's not any good or gets hurt, he's off the books at the end of the season. Nothing lost. If he pitches to his upside and helps them be a serious contender, that's a big win. If he pitches to his upside and the RS don't contend, he can bring a prospect at the deadline. Big win.
What I fear from the 2021 RS is that they'll go all 2019 on us and be just close enough at the deadline that they won't make deals for guys like Upside Garrett Richards, JDM, and Barnes. Then they'll finish the season a few games over .500, just good enough to not have a top-10 pick in the 2022 draft.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 23, 2021 21:36:04 GMT -5
Guys don't set yourselves up for angst, anger and disappointment. Let's hope and revel in a rise to mediocrity this season. That's ok. Reality is that we have no earthly reason to expect to compete at top level this year. The plan is to reset the tax and develop the farm for long term success while maintaining fan interest. In a 30 team sea, the Queen takes time to change course. We have a good captain. “We have a good Captain,” said the passengers of the Titanic from April 10 to April 14, 1912. I’m not saying the iceberg is coming... I’m just saying it is generous to say so part of the way through off-season two coning off of what was a 100-loss pace season. Well, life is too short to waste energy agonizing on what if and but for over which we have no control. Again...4 World Series championships in 16 years...best in baseball And after 86 barren years in leagues with fewer teams. All teams need to reset from time to time and it's our turn in the stocks. I'm excited to see the Sox rise from the ashes. I believe that it will happen in a couple of years combining increased sagacity with dollars. I'm in.
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Post by soxinjersey on Jan 23, 2021 22:04:05 GMT -5
It's unrealistic to set winning the WS as a goal, but, with the strong core of players the Sox have, it would be foolish not to plan to play well, compete, grow as a team, and give good things a chance to happen. I love the signing of these two FAs. Garrett is a win-win in a strange way. The Sox will probably have to manage his innings and may have to deal with an injury, but if that happens, it means more starts for Houck, Pivetta, and maybe Seabold, which must be part of the long-range plan. If he's able to make 25 starts and has recovered his old form in the second half of the season, the Sox rotation will be very strong if other starters are healthy. I wanted Kluber because he offered significant upside but also risk. Richards is similar with maybe a little less risk and a slightly lower upside. I like him much more than a standard-issue innings eater.
I watch a fair number of late games and have often caught the last 2-3 innings of Dodgers' games, esp. in 2018 & 2019. I do not like them and grew to dislike Hernandez also because he made so many big plays for them. You'd look at his numbers and think, OK, easy out, and then he'd put up a great AB and often make a key hit. He brings great energy and fills major needs: 2B and CF look a lot better today. I'm glad he's on our side.
What a change in a 24-hour period! What's left to do? No team is strong at every position and the 2018 team had serious weaknesses. The only piece we must have is a back-end RP, and we have the money to get a good one. And then we're done except for some filling around the edges with somebody like Mitch as a LH bat and back-up for Dalbec. We have the money for that also. No need to over-complicate things.
That said, what could we do with Benintendi to improve the OF situation? Like many of you, I like home-grown players, and I want either Beni or JBJ on the 2021 team, but if CB could trade Beni for a good, cost-controlled RP and a legitimate prospect, then he could turn around and re-sign JBJ. I like the thought of having a great defensive CF.
And then that would still leave a fair amount of money for a pick-up at the trade deadline for the stretch run while staying under the cap (although I agree that that won't necessarily be an issue if the team is playing well).
As you look at the team for this coming year, don't forget to check out the AAA roster -- a lot of guys will be pushing for a promotion. The Sox have many interesting pieces.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jan 23, 2021 22:37:58 GMT -5
Richards cost more than I thought he would. Not too much in the way of "bargains" this offseason. The initial thought was there would be a ton of bargain basement when Brad Hand passed through waivers unclaimed. I'll guess he'll make more on the free agent market that when he could have been claimed. I would have thought you could get a pitcher like Richards for 5 million in addition to a guy like Happ for 8 - 10 million, which would have been preferable but the problem is that Richards wound up going for 10 million so they used 4.5 million to bring back Perez. I'd rather have had Happ in addition to Richards and have not spent $7 million on Kiké Hernandez. You probably can get Almora and Holt/LaStella for a combined $3 million or less. Still a good deal for the Sox. Richards, when healthy, can pitch. If he's past what was giving him health issues, he can be a good pitcher, and has value, whether the team is in contention or not. So at least the Sox have five identifiable starters for the upcoming season in E-Rod, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, and Pivetta, and that explains why they have Andriese and Whitlock as swingmen, given the health track record and performance track record of those five starters. With what they got left I would guess we see a closer although they will wait and see if they can get Colome for $6 or $7 million or if they go after Jeffress and/or Kela. I'd say they're not going after JBJ anymore, which really makes me wish they would have dealt him in August last year, instead of getting nothing for him. Maybe you see a Mitch Moreland reunion although if the NL keeps the DH that might open up a slot for him somewhere either DHing or playing 1b and moving a NL 1b over to the DH slot. Other than the bullpen I think there's an endsight to what Bloom is doing. I don't think he's going to trade Benintendi, but it's not a non-zero thing. Noticed a couple posts in this thread asking for a Workman resigning.. I also think a closer..Of some type is what they need most now and Workman just isn't one, even in that 1 best year and have been a fan of his since he was drafted. Since he's found more success going with that big curve, the control (lack of) isn't going to let him paired with only a low 90's fb he has. Setup? You bet, but emergency closer only. I don't see Bloom, or anyone signing him to be the team closer and really don't see him striking it big this winter either.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 24, 2021 0:16:34 GMT -5
I'm sorry but that's just not true, it depends what grade tear you have in the UCL and how your body responds. Everyone is different, we've seen some guys go years and other like Sale get TJ because the plasma injection didn't work. I'm fairly certain you know this. www.mlb.com/news/garrett-richards-to-have-tommy-john-surgery-c285379814He's not talking about constant agony, just arm not bouncing back and velocity loss. It doesn’t matter. He’s signed. Are you taking the over on over/under 20 starts? And in the end, I applaud this signing as it is only for one year. I said from the start I don’t care what they do this year... pay Richards $20 million for all I care. (I mean in a vacuum, of course, since I’m bummed to see JBJ likely out for lack of some combination of funds and interest.) It’ll be another year with a lineup incrementally less likable than 2018’s squad that was led by young, homegrown guys dancing in the outfield. But at least one year deals all come out in the wash. I assumed this would be worse. Over So you going to compare every team to the 2018 team?
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Post by manfred on Jan 24, 2021 0:30:56 GMT -5
It doesn’t matter. He’s signed. Are you taking the over on over/under 20 starts? And in the end, I applaud this signing as it is only for one year. I said from the start I don’t care what they do this year... pay Richards $20 million for all I care. (I mean in a vacuum, of course, since I’m bummed to see JBJ likely out for lack of some combination of funds and interest.) It’ll be another year with a lineup incrementally less likable than 2018’s squad that was led by young, homegrown guys dancing in the outfield. But at least one year deals all come out in the wash. I assumed this would be worse. Over So you going to compare every team to the 2018 team?
It was two years ago. It is not like you see me grousing about Lynn or Fisk.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 24, 2021 1:40:27 GMT -5
It doesn’t matter. He’s signed. Are you taking the over on over/under 20 starts? And in the end, I applaud this signing as it is only for one year. I said from the start I don’t care what they do this year... pay Richards $20 million for all I care. (I mean in a vacuum, of course, since I’m bummed to see JBJ likely out for lack of some combination of funds and interest.) It’ll be another year with a lineup incrementally less likable than 2018’s squad that was led by young, homegrown guys dancing in the outfield. But at least one year deals all come out in the wash. I assumed this would be worse. Over So you going to compare every team to the 2018 team?
How many guys in the Sox rotation will be over 20 starts this season??? Erod-Under Sale-Under Eovaldi-Under Richards-Under Perez-Hopefully Under Houck-?? Pivetta-? They need more arms out there.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 24, 2021 2:10:34 GMT -5
Guys don't set yourselves up for angst, anger and disappointment. Let's hope and revel in a rise to mediocrity this season. That's ok. Reality is that we have no earthly reason to expect to compete at top level this year. The plan is to reset the tax and develop the farm for long term success while maintaining fan interest. In a 30 team sea, the Queen takes time to change course. We have a good captain. “We have a good Captain,” said the passengers of the Titanic from April 10 to April 14, 1912. I’m not saying the iceberg is coming... I’m just saying it is generous to say so part of the way through off-season two coning off of what was a 100-loss pace season. It's just so silly - or disingenuous - to take last year's "100-loss pace" as the baseline when the pitching staff was completely in tatters, in part due to a once-in-a-century pandemic. It was a staff composed like entirely of middle relievers. And even despite themselves they started to pitch decently toward the end of the season as the team's building depth started to emerge - they were 12-9 at the end, a full third of the season.
The offense should be reliable. The pitching has a huge range of possible outcomes, but could be genuinely good. It should be an interesting team to root for!
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 24, 2021 3:42:48 GMT -5
“We have a good Captain,” said the passengers of the Titanic from April 10 to April 14, 1912. I’m not saying the iceberg is coming... I’m just saying it is generous to say so part of the way through off-season two coning off of what was a 100-loss pace season. It's just so silly - or disingenuous - to take last year's "100-loss pace" as the baseline when the pitching staff was completely in tatters, in part due to a once-in-a-century pandemic. It was a staff composed like entirely of middle relievers. And even despite themselves they started to pitch decently toward the end of the season as the team's building depth started to emerge - they were 12-9 at the end, a full third of the season.
The offense should be reliable. The pitching has a huge range of possible outcomes, but could be genuinely good. It should be an interesting team to root for!
It should be a interesting team, but I hope they're not indifferent come trade deadline. If the the Sox are 6 games out of the division and within 2-3 games of the wildcard hunt with 5 or 6 teams in the mix come trade deadline, that the Sox sell instead of doing something dumb and pretend to go for it all of a sudden. They will probably be in the wild card hunt this year. Go for it in 2022 when more prospects are up and the Sox spend real money.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Jan 24, 2021 3:45:21 GMT -5
It's interesting that Speier noted that Richards could actually have more value as a reliever as a trade target come trade deadline or could be moved there if the Sox want to later. The Padres shifted him to the bullpen in the playoffs and September.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 24, 2021 8:00:38 GMT -5
“We have a good Captain,” said the passengers of the Titanic from April 10 to April 14, 1912. I’m not saying the iceberg is coming... I’m just saying it is generous to say so part of the way through off-season two coning off of what was a 100-loss pace season. It's just so silly - or disingenuous - to take last year's "100-loss pace" as the baseline when the pitching staff was completely in tatters, in part due to a once-in-a-century pandemic. It was a staff composed like entirely of middle relievers. And even despite themselves they started to pitch decently toward the end of the season as the team's building depth started to emerge - they were 12-9 at the end, a full third of the season.
The offense should be reliable. The pitching has a huge range of possible outcomes, but could be genuinely good. It should be an interesting team to root for!
Not only were they 12-9, they did it entirely against playoff teams and contenders, teams that played .550 ball over the year. They played like a 98-win team in that stretch. If there were another 102 games left you'd be thinking about the '19 Nats (especially if E-Rod would be coming back).
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