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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 11, 2021 22:21:59 GMT -5
I think the odds are much higher Mayer goes for slot, or even slightly under than some think. +1 on this. That's a huge gamble for him, pushing away $6.6m, particularly from a marquee franchise that figures to contend most years. There's also injury risk and the possibility that he hits free agency a year or two later -- is USC going to going to get him to the bigs faster than the Sox? I'm sure it was disappointing that he slid from hearing he everyone say he would go 1-1 to going 1-4 but it's still life-changing money for his family. Also, here's how it went down: the Pirates asked "how low can you go?" and Davis went lower; the Rangers were on Leiter all the way; and the Tigers likely went way under for Jobe, as well, so he was never truly in play for any of them.
The worst case scenario for the Sox is that he walks and they pick #5 next year but I really don't see that happening.
The negotiation was probably over before the draft started. Mayer had a number he could take from Pittsburgh to go #1 and said no, in part because the Red Sox gave him a number that was good enough.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 11, 2021 22:26:38 GMT -5
Pittsburgh's next pick is interesting. They should have a nuclear bomb bonus to drop. I guess they're not taking anyone off Boston's board in the 2nd.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 11, 2021 22:31:33 GMT -5
Pittsburgh's next pick is interesting. They should have a nuclear bomb bonus to drop. I guess they're not taking anyone off Boston's board in the 2nd. I don't see this draft with a ton of players who are 3MM plus signs though remaining like last year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2021 22:36:21 GMT -5
Looking to the future, how do the Sox project in 2025 (assuming Xander and Devers resign)? 1st: Casas 2nd: Downs SS: Mayer/Bogaerts??? 3rd: Devers Yorke probably moves to OF No chance I'm right but I'll take a stab at it. 2025 lineup DH Devers C Wong (Del Castillo, ok not happening) 1b Casas 2b Yorke (Downs traded for pitching) SS Mayer 3b Devers or X depending on who extends) LF Duran CF Jimenez RF Verdugo DH Blaze Jordan
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2021 22:43:19 GMT -5
We'll see how Moneyball the Sox can be tomorrow. Would like to see Del Castillo or Hill but Sox will look for underslot, probably somebody who isn't that highly ranked but somebody the Sox think should be rated a lot higher, a lesser Nick Yorke type of pick, but probably a pitcher.
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Post by azblue on Jul 11, 2021 22:46:06 GMT -5
For many teams feeling to financial pain of last season and dramatically lower attendance this season, there may be far less money available to sign draft picks than the allocated slot values. I suspect that the Pirates are really suffering financially and did not intend to spend anything like full slot. I know little about the financial circumstnaces of Texas and Detroit. Full slot may well be enough to sign Mayer, but the Red Sox also have the 5% over the total pool amount to play with. When interviewed during the draft, Mayer seemed eager to start playing in the Sox organization. He should feel fortunate to have been drafted by a big market team with deep pockets and an organization that is improving rapidly. He may not be excited about the likely 5 highest drafting teams in the upcoming first year player drafts.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 11, 2021 22:47:36 GMT -5
Looking to the future, how do the Sox project in 2025 (assuming Xander and Devers resign)? 1st: Casas 2nd: Downs SS: Mayer/Bogaerts??? 3rd: Devers Yorke probably moves to OF Bogie moves to LF in 2025 to make way for Mayer, who pairs with Yorke up the middle. I'm not as sanguine about Downs being around that long; I could see him being packaged for a pitcher.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jul 11, 2021 22:52:30 GMT -5
If Xander is still playing shortstop in 2025, I'll eat my hat (a very small one made of chocolate) 🍫👒 He'd only be 32 which is why I wonder if Downs starts learning to play some center so Mayer can start at 2nd and move to SS. Granted. But he's below average (maybe lower) at the position currently and will be worse in 4 years. I would not enjoy a "Jeter redux" at SS - with requisite Gold Gloves to boot! Year DRS UZR OAA 2021 -12; -0.2; -12 2019 -9; 1; -7 2018 -8; 1; -4
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 11, 2021 22:56:30 GMT -5
He'd only be 32 which is why I wonder if Downs starts learning to play some center so Mayer can start at 2nd and move to SS. Granted. But he's below average (maybe lower) at the position currently and will be worse in 4 years. I would not enjoy a "Jeter redux" at SS - with requisite Gold Gloves to boot! Year DRS UZR OAA 2021 -12; -0.2; -12 2019 -9; 1; -7 2018 -8; 1; -4 I know. I just have a hard time seeing the sox moving a centerpiece of their franchise to another position to make room for a younger SS. Hell maybe Xander would do it, but asking him to suddenly learn OF when he's 32 doesn't seem like something that would happen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2021 23:10:48 GMT -5
Granted. But he's below average (maybe lower) at the position currently and will be worse in 4 years. I would not enjoy a "Jeter redux" at SS - with requisite Gold Gloves to boot! Year DRS UZR OAA 2021 -12; -0.2; -12 2019 -9; 1; -7 2018 -8; 1; -4 I know. I just have a hard time seeing the sox moving a centerpiece of their franchise to another position to make room for a younger SS. Hell maybe Xander would do it, but asking him to suddenly learn OF when he's 32 doesn't seem like something that would happen. I'm not following your logic. Eventually the Sox might have to decide between extending Devers or extending X assuming he opts out. There's a real possibility that Bloom has no desire to pay X like a SS and give him 30 million per year. Or if he does it's possible Devers wants huge money to stay beyond 2023. Most likely one of them remains and winds up at 3b by the time Mayer is ready and if by chance X is still around when Mayer is ready there's no way in hell X remains at SS over a plus fielder like Mayer. If by unlikely chance both stay then one of them is at 3b and the other is the DH. Xander could be a Sox for life like Yaz was but even Yaz, a plus LF, converted to 1b. X doesn't have to forever remain at SS. Particularly when they already know he's already a below average SS at this point, let alone 2025.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 11, 2021 23:10:49 GMT -5
I know. I just have a hard time seeing the sox moving a centerpiece of their franchise to another position to make room for a younger SS. Hell maybe Xander would do it, but asking him to suddenly learn OF when he's 32 doesn't seem like something that would happen. You assume Xander is still on the team in 2025. I'm not sure they're going to be willing to spend the big bucks from Xanders 31-36 (or 31-38) seasons when he opts out after next year.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 11, 2021 23:14:15 GMT -5
+1 on this. That's a huge gamble for him, pushing away $6.6m, particularly from a marquee franchise that figures to contend most years. There's also injury risk and the possibility that he hits free agency a year or two later -- is USC going to going to get him to the bigs faster than the Sox? I'm sure it was disappointing that he slid from hearing he everyone say he would go 1-1 to going 1-4 but it's still life-changing money for his family. Also, here's how it went down: the Pirates asked "how low can you go?" and Davis went lower; the Rangers were on Leiter all the way; and the Tigers likely went way under for Jobe, as well, so he was never truly in play for any of them.
The worst case scenario for the Sox is that he walks and they pick #5 next year but I really don't see that happening.
The negotiation was probably over before the draft started. Mayer had a number he could take from Pittsburgh to go #1 and said no, in part because the Red Sox gave him a number that was good enough. So the Sox told Mayer's camp that if he fell to #4 they would give him #2 or #3 money? That sounds a little too much like the "Leiter pricing himself down to #4" theory, which most industry people said wouldn't work (and it didn't). I think Occam might say that Mayer simply wasn't willing to go as low as two lower-ranked guys were for two cheap teams and that he was ranked lower than Leiter by TEX. Also, recall that the next four teams picking after the Red Sox all went under slot (or at least picked well down the board compared to their position), which suggests that most or all of them had not promised Mayer anything close to the Sox' #4 slot number. That would also suggest that Mayer's camp didn't have much leverage in those pre-pick negotiations. Ipso fatso, I think he gets slot, in part as a courtesy from the Sox that they acknowledge that he was truly the top talent in the draft.
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Post by manfred on Jul 11, 2021 23:18:01 GMT -5
I have a dumb question: What are the tampering rules? I mean, say a team says we’ll go over slot, making it hard for a team ahead of them to get a guy… that seems like tampering, no?
I’m not saying that happened… but is it legal?
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 11, 2021 23:19:39 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jul 11, 2021 23:21:52 GMT -5
Tigers acting with integrity here, but did they not plan for the contingency of Mayer being available? I assume it would be normal to agree with a player on a given price on the condition that other players wouldn't be available...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2021 23:22:46 GMT -5
The negotiation was probably over before the draft started. Mayer had a number he could take from Pittsburgh to go #1 and said no, in part because the Red Sox gave him a number that was good enough. So the Sox told Mayer's camp that if he fell to #4 they would give him #2 or #3 money? That sounds a little too much like the "Leiter pricing himself down to #4" theory, which most industry people said wouldn't work (and it didn't). I think Occam might say that Mayer simply wasn't willing to go as low as two lower-ranked guys were for two cheap teams and that he was ranked lower than Leiter by TEX. Also, recall that the next four teams picking after the Red Sox all went under slot (or at least picked well down the board compared to their position), which suggests that most or all of them had not promised Mayer anything close to the Sox' #4 slot number. That would also suggest that Mayer's camp didn't have much leverage in those pre-pick negotiations. Ipso fatso, I think he gets slot, in part as a courtesy from the Sox that they acknowledge that he was truly the top talent in the draft.
Disagree with your conclusion. Paul Toboni said that he knew what Mayer was going to cost and that it would affect other picks they make. That strongly indicates that he's overslot and that they're going to have to look for value picks to balance out Mayer's money. No Blaze Jordan like pick coming tomorrow.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2021 23:28:05 GMT -5
This is the most excited I've been about the Sox drafting a SS in the major league draft since Nomar, who was drafted out of college.
X and Hanley of course were international free agents.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,204
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Post by cdj on Jul 11, 2021 23:29:38 GMT -5
So the Sox told Mayer's camp that if he fell to #4 they would give him #2 or #3 money? That sounds a little too much like the "Leiter pricing himself down to #4" theory, which most industry people said wouldn't work (and it didn't). I think Occam might say that Mayer simply wasn't willing to go as low as two lower-ranked guys were for two cheap teams and that he was ranked lower than Leiter by TEX. Also, recall that the next four teams picking after the Red Sox all went under slot (or at least picked well down the board compared to their position), which suggests that most or all of them had not promised Mayer anything close to the Sox' #4 slot number. That would also suggest that Mayer's camp didn't have much leverage in those pre-pick negotiations. Ipso fatso, I think he gets slot, in part as a courtesy from the Sox that they acknowledge that he was truly the top talent in the draft.
Disagree with your conclusion. Paul Toboni said that he knew what Mayer was going to cost and that it would affect other picks they make. That strongly indicates that he's overslot and that they're going to have to look for value picks to balance out Mayer's money. No Blaze Jordan like pick coming tomorrow. Agreed, I’ve been looking at college players in the 60s range and HS guys in the 70s-100 range for the next pick. Ky Bush looks intriguing. Huge lefty out of St. Mary’s. Sits 94. Good slider. Got hit harder than anybody I’ve ever seen in his freshman season at Washington state but rebounded big time at a juco and pitched well for St. Mary’s
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 11, 2021 23:29:53 GMT -5
Tigers acting with integrity here, but did they not plan for the contingency of Mayer being available? I assume it would be normal to agree with a player on a given price on the condition that other players wouldn't be available... Detroit may have had Jobe #1 to begin with. Teams probably aren't as prone to groupthink as the pundits, and Jobe sounds like a guy a team might fall in love with.
If they would have preferred drafting Mayer at whatever price he would have cost, then I think that would be a major organizational failure to have gotten themselves in that dilemma.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 11, 2021 23:32:03 GMT -5
Tigers acting with integrity here, but did they not plan for the contingency of Mayer being available? I assume it would be normal to agree with a player on a given price on the condition that other players wouldn't be available... If true, then I'm glad they got some good karma that immediately came back to them with Madden. Two top-10 pitchers is a pretty good consolation for not taking Mayer. You wonder if Madden fell because his camp had gotten vibes from Detroit that he could hold out for his number.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2021 23:37:36 GMT -5
Tigers acting with integrity here, but did they not plan for the contingency of Mayer being available? I assume it would be normal to agree with a player on a given price on the condition that other players wouldn't be available... If true, then I'm glad they got some good karma that immediately came back to them with Madden. Two top-10 pitchers is a pretty good consolation for not taking Mayer. You wonder if Madden fell because his camp had gotten vibes from Detroit that he could hold out for his number. Didn't dyoungteach make a lot of posts as to how Detroit was definitely going to draft a position player because they were already so rich in young pitching? Well, they felt the best players available in their opinion was a very talented high school pitcher and a college pitcher who was rated higher than where the Tigers ultimately drafted him. The Tigers must feel their road back to respectability involves a lot of good young pitching.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 11, 2021 23:42:46 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's top remaining: 17. Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace (NJ) - if they go slot with Mayer, maybe they go over here?20. Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (SC) - "best tool is his speed" - not for me at #4021. Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee (GA) - better be sure you can sign him23. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida - seems like a lot still unsettled for a college kid24. Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield (MA) - Bobby Dalbec 2.0; no thanks29. Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton (LA) - Andy Benintendi 2.0; yes, please, at #4030. Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (TX) - swing and miss34. Wes Kath, 3B, Desert Mountain (AZ) - "more athletic Triston Casas" - sign me up!35. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama - not athletic enough for #4036. Jaden Hill, RHP, Louisiana State - Anderson Espinoza 2.037. Tyler Whitaker, OF, Bishop Gorman (NV) - not staying at SS, bat questionable for corner42. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami - like getting Henry Davis lite at #4043. Gage Jump, LHP, JSerra (CA) - I also luvs me an unconventional southpaw44. James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (FL) - what happens if he grows to be a 7-footer?45. Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida - seems like he's a high-floor, low-ceiling guy46. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Blue Valley Southwest (KS) - Walter Johnson was from Kansas47. Chase Burns, RHP, Beech (TN) - lower floor than I'd prefer48. Josh Hartle, LHP, Reagan (NC) - seems like a good ball of clay to mold50. Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham - cleaned up delivery still "not effortless"51. Andrew Abbott, LHP, Virginia - sounds like a gamerMy 20¢ embedded...
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Post by kman22 on Jul 11, 2021 23:45:13 GMT -5
I don't think Mayer goes over slot + 5%, but in the event that they are going college player at 40 to limit spending, I liked what I've read about Aaron Zavala. I was hoping he'd be there in round 3, but based on the final rankings, might not be too much of a reach at 40.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 11, 2021 23:55:47 GMT -5
So the Sox told Mayer's camp that if he fell to #4 they would give him #2 or #3 money? That sounds a little too much like the "Leiter pricing himself down to #4" theory, which most industry people said wouldn't work (and it didn't). I think Occam might say that Mayer simply wasn't willing to go as low as two lower-ranked guys were for two cheap teams and that he was ranked lower than Leiter by TEX. Also, recall that the next four teams picking after the Red Sox all went under slot (or at least picked well down the board compared to their position), which suggests that most or all of them had not promised Mayer anything close to the Sox' #4 slot number. That would also suggest that Mayer's camp didn't have much leverage in those pre-pick negotiations. Ipso fatso, I think he gets slot, in part as a courtesy from the Sox that they acknowledge that he was truly the top talent in the draft.
Disagree with your conclusion. Paul Toboni said that he knew what Mayer was going to cost and that it would affect other picks they make. That strongly indicates that he's overslot and that they're going to have to look for value picks to balance out Mayer's money. No Blaze Jordan like pick coming tomorrow. Hadn't seen that quote. But it also implies that Mayer is willing to walk away from $6.6m to go to college and hope for better than that in 2-3 years, not only by avoiding injury and poor performance, but also under the next CBA, which may or may not have similar slot values and which many think will include an international draft, which, if it's like the NBA and NHL, will add many new players to the same draft pool. In a word, yikes.
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Post by danredhawk on Jul 11, 2021 23:57:13 GMT -5
So the Sox told Mayer's camp that if he fell to #4 they would give him #2 or #3 money? That sounds a little too much like the "Leiter pricing himself down to #4" theory, which most industry people said wouldn't work (and it didn't). I think Occam might say that Mayer simply wasn't willing to go as low as two lower-ranked guys were for two cheap teams and that he was ranked lower than Leiter by TEX. Also, recall that the next four teams picking after the Red Sox all went under slot (or at least picked well down the board compared to their position), which suggests that most or all of them had not promised Mayer anything close to the Sox' #4 slot number. That would also suggest that Mayer's camp didn't have much leverage in those pre-pick negotiations. Ipso fatso, I think he gets slot, in part as a courtesy from the Sox that they acknowledge that he was truly the top talent in the draft.
Disagree with your conclusion. Paul Toboni said that he knew what Mayer was going to cost and that it would affect other picks they make. That strongly indicates that he's overslot and that they're going to have to look for value picks to balance out Mayer's money. No Blaze Jordan like pick coming tomorrow. I disagree with your conclusion. He didn't offer that thought to the world out of the goodness of his heart, he was responding to a direct question from a reporter who asked if they knew how much Mayer will cost and how it would impact the rest of their draft and he said 'yes, we know how much he will cost and the impact of that price'. That could mean number of things... He may ask for an over slot deal, and the Sox may throw him a bone (maybe 5% because they can without effecting overall bonus pool rules) and to start on the right foot, but I don't understand this narrative that first-rounders like Mayer or Watson have the leverage to demand or are owed significant over slot bonuses. They're not turning down serious money to go to school where they are just as likely (if not more so) to do worse three years from now than better... Mayer fell because the Pirates wanted to save money and the Tigers honored a commitment to Jobe. There has been no indication he asked the Pirates for anything more than to give him first-overall slot if they wanted to take him first overall - and why would the Red Sox make a deal well over slot when the reality of the system makes it very unlikely anyone behind him would even be able to match #4 slot without damaging their bonus pool, let alone make a serious above #4 slot promise. Significant over slot deals go to the the prep players who want first-round money but aren't first round guys, not #4 picks staring nearly 7 million dollars in the face. If the Sox want to hold a hard line at slot, he's not passing on that money... Miami didn't have to go under slot for their second pick to save for Watson, because 3.5 million dollars is REAL money. He's may get a bit more, but after rocketing onto everyone's radar with a month's performance he's not turning that down to risk it all on three years in college. It's more likely in my opinion that the Sox could go big at #40 and then have to save for that pick, then have a need to save significantly for #4. If they do cut a deal in that spot, it doesn't necessarily tell me anything about Mayer, as there is no reason to assume it wouldn't simply be part of their plan for the remainder of the draft. In summation, I don't believe the Sox will try to nail Mayer to the wall in negotiations but he doesn't have the leverage the you insinuate he has relative to the incredible risk of turning down 6.67 million dollars and going to USC where he could get hurt, underwhelm, fail to develop or end up (who knows how much) lower than #4 in 2024 due to no other reason than the development of other prospects...
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