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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2021 0:02:53 GMT -5
Love this question in the FG chat from "Pinstripe Perry" about two hours before the MFYs drafted Sweeney:
Pinstripe Perry 7:15 Can either of you explain to me why Trey Sweeney seems like a R1 lock? Sitting in the 60s on THE BOARD. Is it just the dearth of College Hitters or something more (like being willing to cut a below slot deal)? Get the models love him but man the late teens or 20s seems rich for me.
(Poor Pinstripe Perry...)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2021 0:15:40 GMT -5
More from the FG chat:
Nate 7:46 odds Mayer signs?
Kevin Goldstein 7:46 99.999999483858327%
(I like those odds...)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2021 0:28:27 GMT -5
Unsolictied Duran hype from Longenhagen:
Mark 8:44 How often do swing adjustments actually pay off?
Eric A Longenhagen 8:44 Jarren Duran's is, big time
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 12, 2021 0:38:51 GMT -5
Getting Mayer somehow alleviates the pain of the Trey Ball debacle. However, if this fails I will leverage this forum for the number of a good psychiatrist.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 12, 2021 0:41:23 GMT -5
Unsolictied Duran hype from Longenhagen: Mark 8:44 How often do swing adjustments actually pay off? Eric A Longenhagen 8:44 Jarren Duran's is, big time Love it. Funny thing is as excited as I am about Casas and Mayer in particular...I still find myself thinking I can't wait for Duran to come up lol.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2021 0:43:58 GMT -5
Interesting note around pick 23:
Viv 9:47 About how late can Bubba Chandler go before he's definitely going to Clemson?
Kevin Goldstein 9:47 We might be there.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 12, 2021 0:47:42 GMT -5
More reason to pull Bubba's magnet off the board:
Patrick 9:55 You say we could be at the point Bubba Chandler goes to Clemson. Any chance he could be a 2nd round pick for one of the teams going under slot? Or not enough money there to make up?
Kevin Goldstein 9:56 Rumor is price is somewhere in the 4m range....
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,416
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Post by radiohix on Jul 12, 2021 0:48:30 GMT -5
Man the meltdowns in the Tigers' forums are EPIC.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 12, 2021 0:52:41 GMT -5
Man the meltdowns in the Tigers' forums are EPIC. One of the first places I went to for a laugh after the pick lol.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2021 0:56:44 GMT -5
Love this question in the FG chat from "Pinstripe Perry" about two hours before the MFYs drafted Sweeney: Pinstripe Perry 7:15 Can either of you explain to me why Trey Sweeney seems like a R1 lock? Sitting in the 60s on THE BOARD. Is it just the dearth of College Hitters or something more (like being willing to cut a below slot deal)? Get the models love him but man the late teens or 20s seems rich for me. (Poor Pinstripe Perry...) I just read the FG chat and this is GOLD, Jerry, GOLD!!
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Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2021 1:01:17 GMT -5
I still can't believe they got Mayer. It's a little unsettlingly like the Groome pick, in that he was arguably the top talent available, but he also had a lot going on and as a HSer (edit: meant to qualify that with pitcher...at least he wasn't a righty tho) was risky anyway. And he's actually looking better and better this year, which makes me real glad they never gave up on him. But Mayer...he's just kind of a weird coincidence slid pick it seems, a confluence of cost saving attempts and maybe different priorities. I couldn't be any more pumped. There's a tiny part of me that feels a little sad we didn't get to take Leiter, but with a choice between the two I'd take Mayer 9 out of 10 times. Poor Leiter is stuck in the heat in TX and the Sox just got Correa v2.0.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2021 1:15:38 GMT -5
Getting Mayer somehow alleviates the pain of the Trey Ball debacle. However, if this fails I will leverage this forum for the number of a good psychiatrist. I gotchoo, as long as you're near the Bean. I was thinking of Tim Duncan, but that pain won't be alleviated until Mayer throws up his fourth consecutive 5-win season with the Sox. Huge get though. Timing is right if Bogey chooses to leave (which I *really* hope does not happen, and he accepts a move), and this instantly puts a big boost in the system's strength if they can produce coup #2 with their second pick. I was a huge Duran pick fan back in '18, and I though he might grow into some power given his size and fast-twitch. But I certainly didn't expect this. All the flies hurt the BAPIP lol, but I'll take the .600 SLG. He's a legit 40-40 candidate at this point, even if the likelihood is low by nature. Makes me a lot less annoyed that they didn't take my advice and get Patino from the Padres for Mookie instead of going to LA for Downs (what, no Keibert Ruiz?!)
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,416
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Post by radiohix on Jul 12, 2021 1:39:01 GMT -5
I think it's time for this kid to make the switch.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2021 3:36:07 GMT -5
I'm fully expecting them to Nick Yorke this #40 pick; they probably need to go underslot and we know they're confident in their own evaluations so they'll be content to choose a more obscure guy. Hopefully it works out as well as it has so far with Yorke... I had the exact same idea, but as just one option. You guys can tell me if I'n wrong, but it seems like we'll know how bad Mayer's demands are by who we take 40th. I mean, I would doubt we'd go under slot there to set up a later pick. I'd think if we do, it's to get sad dough for Mayer. I wonder if they had a deal worked out with Mayer. Yes, he said, "Honestly, I didn't know what to expect. I had no clue what was going to happen," but that is also consistent with "we had a thing in place and had no idea if it would work."
The reports that the Tigers originally had Mayer #1 on their board are, of course, entirely credible. As someone noted, failing to make their Jobe deal contingent on Mayer falling to them would be a huge blunder. OTOH, if Mayer and his agent felt strongly that Boston was the best landing space for him (and why wouldn't they?), it would be easy to tell the Tigers they wanted #1 slot money and then hope that the Tigers would opt for Jobe and the extra pool money, which could be $3M or more. We know that Leiter tried to get himself to the Sox by varying his demands. It seems quite possible to me that Mayer did the same thing, just with less fanfare. By which I mean zero, a Bloom trademark.
The next question is, if that's what happened, how much of it was push by our side, and how much was pull by theirs?
I suspect that the Sox sat down and decided to go after Mayer. That would be so Bloom. As noted, he's already partly pre-sold, but you can also communicate how much better off he is in an organization with a track record of developing prospects and extracting the best possible results from a given level of talent. Note that to a large degree you're convincing his agent that doing this is the best thing for his client.
My guess is that he signs for something like splitting the difference between 1 and 4 slot ($7.5M), or 3-slot ($7.2M). It's a sign of respect to offer a bit over slot. If it's 3-slot money, it's an extra $557,200 for us, which is 12% of our remaining pool. You can sign college seniors at 7, 9, and 10 and make that up.
However, you know they have a list of under-slot value guys. You can also make that difference up by getting the 40 pick for 56 slot money. Comp: Pat Light was drafted 37 and signed for 50. If they're extra high on one of Ky Bush, Tommy Mace, Matt Mikulski, Spencer Schwellenbach, or Peyton Wilson, that should do the trick. It's much tougher to make it up by going under on a couple of later picks (e.g., the 75 pick for 117 and the 105 for 157).
Drafting one of the consensus best at-slot available talents (Ethan Wilson, Jaden Hill, Adrian del Castillo, Connor Norby, Joshua Baez if he'll take a stay-at-home discount) would probably indicate a somewhat sweeter Mayer deal that that. But not definitely. You might be able to recover the pool money by going under-slot on the rest of the picks, mixing in a few college seniors, and that might be worth it to get what you think is a second prize. Especially if you have attractive under-slot options all the way down.
OTOH, going under-slot doesn't necessarily mean they didn't get a sweetheart Mayer deal; the best player on their board might be an under-slot guy.
It will likely start to come into focus by pick 3 or 4, I would say.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2021 3:54:26 GMT -5
A definitive list of consensus rankings of the next 40 guys. As you can see, a lot of guys are valued very differently across the four sources (BP only did a top 50), so you don't want to use just one. Sources were weighted by how well they did with round 1, but there weren't dramatic differences. FanGraphs was best, then MLB, BA, and Kiley McDaniel at ESPN (he scored a bunch of hits on the unexpected picks but had even more misses on guys he had rated low).
Positions given are projected MLB roles according to BA. BA had no entry in their top 500 for either Josh Hartle or Cody Schrier, which would seem to be a data deletion mishap, while FG only ranked 78 guys. I dealt with these gaps in the logical way.
Name Lvl Pos BA MLB KMc FG Ave Bubba Chandler HS RHP/SS 20 21 23 16 20 Will Taylor HS CF 21 20 9 30 20 Jud Fabian 4Yr CF 27 23 28 24 25 Antho. Solometo HS LHP 29 17 35 34 29 Ethan Wilson 4Yr LF 26 35 44 21 31 Joshua Baez HS RF 31 24 63 23 35 Jaden Hill 4Yr RHP 24 36 47 39 36 A. del Castillo 4Yr C 25 42 40 50 39 Wes Kath HS 3B 54 34 43 27 39 Connor Norby 4Yr 2B 44 58 32 25 40 Peyton Stovall HS 2B 33 29 48 66 44 Isaac Pacheco HS 3B 36 30 52 65 46 Josh Hartle HS LHP 48 34 60 47 Lonnie White HS RF 32 72 39 54 49 Ben Kurdna HS RHP 48 46 49 56 50 James Wood HS RF 35 44 51 70 50 Tyler Whitaker HS CF 60 37 30 52 Gage Jump HS LHP 58 43 53 57 53 Thatcher Hurd HS RHP 45 60 68 45 54 Ky Bush 4Yr LHP 47 67 55 52 55 Tommy Mace 4Yr RHP 65 45 64 51 56 Matt Mikulski 4Yr LHP 40 50 99 38 56 S Schwellenbach 4Yr RHP/3B 52 54 46 58 James Triantos HS 2B 59 78 61 46 61 Cody Morrisette HS 2B 46 59 58 61 Peyton Wilson 4Yr all 78 68 41 64 63 Chase Burns HS RHP 50 47 97 59 63 Dylan Smith 4Yr RHP 56 74 56 69 64 Alex Mooney HS SS 66 64 75 58 66 Jac. Baumeister HS RHP 84 53 45 66 Bra. Montgomery HS RHP/RF 87 66 86 28 66 Cody Schrier HS SS 63 57 67 Andrew Abbott 4Yr LHP 67 51 70 68 Alex Binelas 4Yr 1B 77 65 93 43 69 Daylen Lile HS LF 62 80 50 69 Chris. Franklin 4Yr CF 57 52 124 49 70 Aaron Zavala 4Yr LF 124 76 69 33 75 Sean Burke 4Yr RHP 53 75 87 75 Davis Diaz HS C/SS 69 71 103 62 76 Ewwin Arroyo HS SS 72 83 66 77
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,799
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Post by mobaz on Jul 12, 2021 4:13:54 GMT -5
Getting Mayer somehow alleviates the pain of the Trey Ball debacle. However, if this fails I will leverage this forum for the number of a good psychiatrist. I think it's pretty obvious none of us here have a good psychiatrist.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,421
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Post by ianrs on Jul 12, 2021 4:23:32 GMT -5
Wow I fell asleep over here in Switzerland and woke up to the soon to be number 1 prospect in baseball falling to the Red Sox - it's a great day!!
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 12, 2021 4:27:36 GMT -5
Getting Mayer somehow alleviates the pain of the Trey Ball debacle. However, if this fails I will leverage this forum for the number of a good psychiatrist. Now that Burden has been shifted to Detroit. “We took Jobe over Mayer?!?!?!?”
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 12, 2021 5:20:41 GMT -5
Reynolds compares Mayer to Chipper Jones and then contradicts himself saying Mayer is a LH hitter whereas Jones was switch hitter. Wait what? ESPN compared him to Yelich which seems a much better comp. There was literally nothing wrong with what Reynolds said about Mayer and Chipper. He didn’t contradict himself, he added that Chipper was a switch hitter after comparing Chippers left handed swing to Mayer’s swing. Chipper Jones had one of the sweetest left handed swings ever with power. Where can I sign Mayer up for that?
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 12, 2021 6:25:00 GMT -5
Disagree with your conclusion. Paul Toboni said that he knew what Mayer was going to cost and that it would affect other picks they make. That strongly indicates that he's overslot and that they're going to have to look for value picks to balance out Mayer's money. No Blaze Jordan like pick coming tomorrow. Agreed, I’ve been looking at college players in the 60s range and HS guys in the 70s-100 range for the next pick. Ky Bush looks intriguing. Huge lefty out of St. Mary’s. Sits 94. Good slider. Got hit harder than anybody I’ve ever seen in his freshman season at Washington state but rebounded big time at a juco and pitched well for St. Mary’s Little afraid of the reliever profile with Bush. Not a long history of command or control, mechanics still not super refined (could be a plus depending on your perspective), and not necessarily playing in an elite conference. Wouldn't hate it as a save-some-money move, but even there not sure it would be my personal top choice for a pitcher.
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Post by tyler3 on Jul 12, 2021 6:41:44 GMT -5
This is odd…so unbelievably happy about the Mayer pick….completely content with whoever Bloom gets at 40. Having said that…now going to list some favorites.
Solometo: lefty HS arm. Will Taylor: worked out for Red Sox Josh Baez: local kid, stupid power, huge arm and surprisingly fast Gage Jump: described as a left handed Jack Leiter (short, fastball hitters just don’t see)
If we need to save a little after snagging Mayer
Mikulski: lefty senior sign Aaron Zavala: data darling, exit velocity, average, power, plate discipline. History of playing third but would really have to work to stay there.
Anyway guys this has been fun, what a great result yesterday. Here’s to today but for me we’re playing with the house’s money at this point.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 12, 2021 6:53:31 GMT -5
Today the real fun starts. While Mayer might have been a bit of a surprise, we knew who he was. We knew it was going to be Davis, Leiter, Lawlar (maybe Jobe, House Wilson Rocker), and some of us probably saw Mayer falling if Pittsburgh didn't take him.
We knew who the suspects were at the top of the draft, we've been reading up on them and been watching the moving mock drafts daily. But from round two on we get to see some names that we've heard little to nothing on (maybe a few guys in there whose names we know). These are the guys we get to read up on, dream on, and wonder if any of these guys are going to be the next Duran, Betts, Vasquez, or Anthony Rizzo.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 12, 2021 6:57:45 GMT -5
While I want to make homeruns with every pick, I realize that everyone can't be overslot. I really hope that they get at least a slot player (possibly plus the overage) with the next pick at 40. I just know that the Yankees have to take a shot at some point and if the Red Sox don't nab the guy the Yankees want, maybe they nab a guy that has a ripple effect that effects the Yankees pick at 55. I assume that some of the top talent might be unsignable at this point but I'm hoping for Baez (if there's a hometown discount) or Hill. Mikulski and Abbott aren't bad safety options. With only 3 picks in the way there will be a lot of talent there and I just hope that they don't start punting until the following rounds.
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Post by The Duck on Jul 12, 2021 7:01:53 GMT -5
. I just have a hard time seeing the sox moving a centerpiece of their franchise to another position to make room for a younger SS. Hell maybe Xander would do it, but asking him to suddenly learn OF when he's 32 doesn't seem like something that would happen. [/quote]
Have you met John Valentin?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 12, 2021 7:11:40 GMT -5
. I just have a hard time seeing the sox moving a centerpiece of their franchise to another position to make room for a younger SS. Hell maybe Xander would do it, but asking him to suddenly learn OF when he's 32 doesn't seem like something that would happen. Have you met John Valentin?[/quote] A different problem for a different day years from now.
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