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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 20, 2021 22:47:52 GMT -5
Update: If we go 7-4 ...
If the Yankees sweep the Jays, there's a 3-way tie if they go 6-2 and the Jays go 9-0. But if there isn't a 3-way tie, the Yankees need to go 7-1 to wrest home field and the Jays can't. If the Yankees win 2, there's a 3-way tie if the Yankees go 7-1 and Jays 8-1. Otherwise, Yankees need 8-0 and Jays 9-0 for home field. I believe this is the only scenario where we don't play on 10/4 or 10/5 if we go 7-4.
If the Jays win 2, there's a 3-way tie if the Yankees go 8-0 and the Jays 7-2. Otherwise, Yankees cannot win home field and Jays need 8-1.
If Jays sweep, a 3-way tie is impossible, and the Jays need to go 7-2 to get home field.
If we go 8-3 ...
If the Yankees sweep, they need to go 9-0 to wrest home field and the Jays can't.
If the Yankees win 2, there's a 3-way tie if the Yankees go 8-0 and Jays 9-0. Otherwise, we have home field.
If the Jays win 2, they have to go 9-0 to wrest home field and the Yankees can't.
If the Jays sweep, they need to go 8-1 to wrest home field.
And if the Sox go 6-5 the rest of the way to finish 92-70?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 20, 2021 23:10:57 GMT -5
Update: If we go 7-4 ...
If the Yankees sweep the Jays, there's a 3-way tie if they go 6-2 and the Jays go 9-0. But if there isn't a 3-way tie, the Yankees need to go 7-1 to wrest home field and the Jays can't. If the Yankees win 2, there's a 3-way tie if the Yankees go 7-1 and Jays 8-1. Otherwise, Yankees need 8-0 and Jays 9-0 for home field. I believe this is the only scenario where we don't play on 10/4 or 10/5 if we go 7-4.
If the Jays win 2, there's a 3-way tie if the Yankees go 8-0 and the Jays 7-2. Otherwise, Yankees cannot win home field and Jays need 8-1.
If Jays sweep, a 3-way tie is impossible, and the Jays need to go 7-2 to get home field.
If we go 8-3 ...
If the Yankees sweep, they need to go 9-0 to wrest home field and the Jays can't.
If the Yankees win 2, there's a 3-way tie if the Yankees go 8-0 and Jays 9-0. Otherwise, we have home field.
If the Jays win 2, they have to go 9-0 to wrest home field and the Yankees can't.
If the Jays sweep, they need to go 8-1 to wrest home field.
And if the Sox go 6-5 the rest of the way to finish 92-70? 7-4 against this opposition is no better than they played for 19 games when COVID-crippled -- a fraction worse, actually. 6-5 is the best case of a collapse scenario. I'll look at that if and only if it starts to happen, w.g., losing both Mets games.
8-3 is actually the expectation based on how they've played the last 22 games, with the assumption that they're a better team after getting the COVIDians back.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 21, 2021 0:05:22 GMT -5
The Sox have played 0.550 baseball all year, that would essentially be 6-5 the rest of the way. Assuming 8-3 over this span, while possible, is setting yourself up for a lot higher chance of disappointment than satisfaction.
6-5 would still mean they close the year on a 11-5 run.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2021 5:28:41 GMT -5
The Sox have played 0.550 baseball all year, that would essentially be 6-5 the rest of the way. Assuming 8-3 over this span, while possible, is setting yourself up for a lot higher chance of disappointment than satisfaction. 6-5 would still mean they close the year on a 11-5 run. You're not factoring in the weakness of the competition. They're playing against .442 teams, and it's probably more like .433 or less, because the AL has clobbered the NL in interleague play, and the the rest of the AL East, which constitutes 48% of our schedule, has played .531 ball against the rest of MLB. And the Sox have been a .570 team, which puts them as a .635 - .640 team, against these opponents in these parks, and that is 7-4 on the nose.
And I'm not assuming 8-3; I'm pointing out that if you assume that they can play as well as they did in the 19 game COVID stretch (.580 factoring in schedule), which seems quite reasonable, and if you assume they can be measurably better because of the return of everyone to the roster ... you get 8-3.
It's not just COVID. They need only 1 game from their 5th starter, who is instead a bullpen force. The roster is better: they have Kyle Schwarber instead of Cordero / Santana, Travis Shaw instead of Marwin Gonzalez, and Iglesias as an extra via the 28-man roster. Renfroe, Kiké, and Dalbec are all better players than their season stats, in increasing order of difference. That explains how they were able to play .580 ball while shorthanded.
7-4 is splitting with Mets and winning the other three series, but not sweeping any of them. Win an extra game against the Mets, O's, or Nats and you're 8-3.
One more thing. After Sale won game 3 in Tampa, I thought to myself, if they can win tomorrow and split this series -- in Tampa, and without Xander, Kiké, Arroyo, Barnes, Taylor, Sawamura, and Perez -- they're going to not lose ground in wild card race, and when they return to full strength they're going to feel invincible. I actually was going to post that, and then was going to post it after they did split the series, and I've been sitting on that thought as they won a series in Seattle for the first time in years and then swept the O's. I think the days off will help, too.
I did predict 92 wins in the prediction thread, so 6-5 ought to make me happy. But 7-4 the rest of the way will, for me, be a letdown (unless game 162 is meaningless and they lose it).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 21, 2021 8:13:17 GMT -5
The Sox have played 0.550 baseball all year, that would essentially be 6-5 the rest of the way. Assuming 8-3 over this span, while possible, is setting yourself up for a lot higher chance of disappointment than satisfaction. 6-5 would still mean they close the year on a 11-5 run. You're not factoring in the weakness of the competition. They're playing against .442 teams, and it's probably more like .433 or less, because the AL has clobbered the NL in interleague play, and the the rest of the AL East, which constitutes 48% of our schedule, has played .531 ball against the rest of MLB. And the Sox have been a .570 team, which puts them as a .635 - .640 team, against these opponents in these parks, and that is 7-4 on the nose.
And I'm not assuming 8-3; I'm pointing out that if you assume that they can play as well as they did in the 19 game COVID stretch (.580 factoring in schedule), which seems quite reasonable, and if you assume they can be measurably better because of the return of everyone to the roster ... you get 8-3. It's not just COVID. They need only 1 game from their 5th starter, who is instead a bullpen force. The roster is better: they have Kyle Schwarber instead of Cordero / Santana, Travis Shaw instead of Marwin Gonzalez, and Iglesias as an extra via the 28-man roster. Renfroe, Kiké, and Dalbec are all better players than their season stats, in increasing order of difference. That explains how they were able to play .580 ball while shorthanded.
7-4 is splitting with Mets and winning the other three series, but not sweeping any of them. Win an extra game against the Mets, O's, or Nats and you're 8-3. One more thing. After Sale won game 3 in Tampa, I thought to myself, if they can win tomorrow and split this series -- in Tampa, and without Xander, Kiké, Arroyo, Barnes, Taylor, Sawamura, and Perez -- they're going to not lose ground in wild card race, and when they return to full strength they're going to feel invincible. I actually was going to post that, and then was going to post it after they did split the series, and I've been sitting on that thought as they won a series in Seattle for the first time in years and then swept the O's. I think the days off will help, too. I did predict 92 wins in the prediction thread, so 6-5 ought to make me happy. But 7-4 the rest of the way will, for me, be a letdown (unless game 162 is meaningless and they lose it). I think 6-5 is just as realistic as any of 7-4 or 8-3. It's not hard to imagine a split against the Mets. Pivetta who's really hit or miss starts against the Yankees. Not that hard to imagine that he gets hit hard and they lose that game and split the following two games with NY (Glad the Sox have Houck here but they will miss Whitlock.) and then take 2 of 3 on the road against the Orioles in a series where I think Means pitches the final game, and then take 2 of 3 on the road at Washington. 6-5 is hardly a 2011 style gag. I would think 92-70 puts them in either a tie for the 2nd wild card or clinches the second wild card spot. I'd think 7-4 or better given the tie-breaker situation would pretty much guarantee that the Sox host the wild card game. I'm still of the belief that 93 wins gives the Sox WC1 and that 92 wins (6-5) probably is a tossup between hosting and being the road team in that game and anything less than that (going 5-6 or less) leaves them out. I'd project Toronto with 92 wins, but they do have the same caveat as the Sox. One one hand, I'm guessing they split the remaining 2 games against TB, take 3 of 4 against Minny on the road (might be a bit generous, but I have trouble seeing the Twins splitting the series), take 2 of 3 at home against NY, and then take 2 of 3 at home vs Baltimore (here is where I can really see them sweeping the O's if Means doesn't pitch). So if my guesses hold up, that's 92 wins and a trip to Fenway. If they do everything I have there but sweep the O's then Toronto would host the Sox. NY has to sweep Texas and find a way to win 4 of 6 against Boston and Toronto and then handle TB 2 of 3. They have the tougher road. Say they sweep Texas, beat the Sox 2 of 3, lose 2 of 3 to Toronto, beat a spring training squad of Rays 2 of 3. That's 7-4. That lands them at 91-71 and on the couch watching the game. If the Sox beat the Yankees 2 of 3 they're probably done, barring them sweeping Toronto.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 21, 2021 8:38:03 GMT -5
The Sox have played 0.550 baseball all year, that would essentially be 6-5 the rest of the way. Assuming 8-3 over this span, while possible, is setting yourself up for a lot higher chance of disappointment than satisfaction. 6-5 would still mean they close the year on a 11-5 run. You're not factoring in the weakness of the competition. They're playing against .442 teams, and it's probably more like .433 or less, because the AL has clobbered the NL in interleague play, and the the rest of the AL East, which constitutes 48% of our schedule, has played .531 ball against the rest of MLB. And the Sox have been a .570 team, which puts them as a .635 - .640 team, against these opponents in these parks, and that is 7-4 on the nose.
And I'm not assuming 8-3; I'm pointing out that if you assume that they can play as well as they did in the 19 game COVID stretch (.580 factoring in schedule), which seems quite reasonable, and if you assume they can be measurably better because of the return of everyone to the roster ... you get 8-3.
It's not just COVID. They need only 1 game from their 5th starter, who is instead a bullpen force. The roster is better: they have Kyle Schwarber instead of Cordero / Santana, Travis Shaw instead of Marwin Gonzalez, and Iglesias as an extra via the 28-man roster. Renfroe, Kiké, and Dalbec are all better players than their season stats, in increasing order of difference. That explains how they were able to play .580 ball while shorthanded.
7-4 is splitting with Mets and winning the other three series, but not sweeping any of them. Win an extra game against the Mets, O's, or Nats and you're 8-3.
One more thing. After Sale won game 3 in Tampa, I thought to myself, if they can win tomorrow and split this series -- in Tampa, and without Xander, Kiké, Arroyo, Barnes, Taylor, Sawamura, and Perez -- they're going to not lose ground in wild card race, and when they return to full strength they're going to feel invincible. I actually was going to post that, and then was going to post it after they did split the series, and I've been sitting on that thought as they won a series in Seattle for the first time in years and then swept the O's. I think the days off will help, too.
I did predict 92 wins in the prediction thread, so 6-5 ought to make me happy. But 7-4 the rest of the way will, for me, be a letdown (unless game 162 is meaningless and they lose it). 7-4 seems like the best projection to me, but it is obviously very possible that they go 6-5. The difference between 7-4 and 6-5 is a couple of bloops, or bad ball/strike calls, or a pitcher just not having it one day. In fact all of those things came into play in their last game and as a result they nearly boofed it. Heck, they could go 4-7, in which case they'd be bounced from the wild card if the Yankees and Jays both did better than 6-5.
I would note about the Orioles series, though, that fangraphs has them lined up to start the same three lefties they just started against us. No Means.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 21, 2021 8:54:25 GMT -5
The Orioles are in a dogfight for the #1 draft pick, with the same record as the Diamondbacks. Hopefully they learn the urgency of their situation by the time we see them again.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 21, 2021 9:01:59 GMT -5
The Orioles are in a dogfight for the #1 draft pick, with the same record as the Diamondbacks. Hopefully they learn the urgency of their situation by the time we see them again. Hopefully they forget again when they go to Toronto to end the season
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 21, 2021 9:03:26 GMT -5
You're not factoring in the weakness of the competition. They're playing against .442 teams, and it's probably more like .433 or less, because the AL has clobbered the NL in interleague play, and the the rest of the AL East, which constitutes 48% of our schedule, has played .531 ball against the rest of MLB. And the Sox have been a .570 team, which puts them as a .635 - .640 team, against these opponents in these parks, and that is 7-4 on the nose.
And I'm not assuming 8-3; I'm pointing out that if you assume that they can play as well as they did in the 19 game COVID stretch (.580 factoring in schedule), which seems quite reasonable, and if you assume they can be measurably better because of the return of everyone to the roster ... you get 8-3. It's not just COVID. They need only 1 game from their 5th starter, who is instead a bullpen force. The roster is better: they have Kyle Schwarber instead of Cordero / Santana, Travis Shaw instead of Marwin Gonzalez, and Iglesias as an extra via the 28-man roster. Renfroe, Kiké, and Dalbec are all better players than their season stats, in increasing order of difference. That explains how they were able to play .580 ball while shorthanded.
7-4 is splitting with Mets and winning the other three series, but not sweeping any of them. Win an extra game against the Mets, O's, or Nats and you're 8-3. One more thing. After Sale won game 3 in Tampa, I thought to myself, if they can win tomorrow and split this series -- in Tampa, and without Xander, Kiké, Arroyo, Barnes, Taylor, Sawamura, and Perez -- they're going to not lose ground in wild card race, and when they return to full strength they're going to feel invincible. I actually was going to post that, and then was going to post it after they did split the series, and I've been sitting on that thought as they won a series in Seattle for the first time in years and then swept the O's. I think the days off will help, too. I did predict 92 wins in the prediction thread, so 6-5 ought to make me happy. But 7-4 the rest of the way will, for me, be a letdown (unless game 162 is meaningless and they lose it). 7-4 seems like the best projection to me, but it is obviously very possible that they go 6-5. The difference between 7-4 and 6-5 is a couple of bloops, or bad ball/strike calls, or a pitcher just not having it one day. In fact all of those things came into play in their last game and as a result they nearly boofed it. Heck, they could go 4-7, in which case they'd be bounced from the wild card if the Yankees and Jays both did better than 6-5. I would note about the Orioles series, though, that fangraphs has them lined up to start the same three lefties they just started against us. No Means.
Oh, I hope they're right. That would be sweet. Let him pitch against Toronto.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 21, 2021 13:28:39 GMT -5
I was trying to figure out what would happen if there's a three-way tie for the wild card, and based on my reading of this, I think what would happen is that the Red Sox, by virtue of winning the head-to-head series against both the Yankees and Blue Jays, would host the Blue Jays (winner gets the first playoff spot) and then the loser will play at the Yankees for the second spot.
By virtue of losing the season series to both the Sox and Jays, the Yankees would only have one shot to make the wild card whereas the Sox and Jays have two. (But both games would be on the road for the Jays.)
Do I have that right?
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 21, 2021 17:26:20 GMT -5
The Sox have played 0.550 baseball all year, that would essentially be 6-5 the rest of the way. Assuming 8-3 over this span, while possible, is setting yourself up for a lot higher chance of disappointment than satisfaction. 6-5 would still mean they close the year on a 11-5 run. You're not factoring in the weakness of the competition. They're playing against .442 teams, and it's probably more like .433 or less, because the AL has clobbered the NL in interleague play, and the the rest of the AL East, which constitutes 48% of our schedule, has played .531 ball against the rest of MLB. And the Sox have been a .570 team, which puts them as a .635 - .640 team, against these opponents in these parks, and that is 7-4 on the nose.
And I'm not assuming 8-3; I'm pointing out that if you assume that they can play as well as they did in the 19 game COVID stretch (.580 factoring in schedule), which seems quite reasonable, and if you assume they can be measurably better because of the return of everyone to the roster ... you get 8-3. It's not just COVID. They need only 1 game from their 5th starter, who is instead a bullpen force. The roster is better: they have Kyle Schwarber instead of Cordero / Santana, Travis Shaw instead of Marwin Gonzalez, and Iglesias as an extra via the 28-man roster. Renfroe, Kiké, and Dalbec are all better players than their season stats, in increasing order of difference. That explains how they were able to play .580 ball while shorthanded.
7-4 is splitting with Mets and winning the other three series, but not sweeping any of them. Win an extra game against the Mets, O's, or Nats and you're 8-3. One more thing. After Sale won game 3 in Tampa, I thought to myself, if they can win tomorrow and split this series -- in Tampa, and without Xander, Kiké, Arroyo, Barnes, Taylor, Sawamura, and Perez -- they're going to not lose ground in wild card race, and when they return to full strength they're going to feel invincible. I actually was going to post that, and then was going to post it after they did split the series, and I've been sitting on that thought as they won a series in Seattle for the first time in years and then swept the O's. I think the days off will help, too. I did predict 92 wins in the prediction thread, so 6-5 ought to make me happy. But 7-4 the rest of the way will, for me, be a letdown (unless game 162 is meaningless and they lose it). Incandenza essentially summarized my point. While I hope for 8-3 and can see a path that gets to that, 3 games ago I would have been nuts to say they'd go 11-3 over the final 14. So in my head they are due for a few headscratchers or a few bad bounces that lead to a loss or two that they should have won. Let's just hope it's before (or preferably, after) this weekend and not during it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2021 4:04:03 GMT -5
You're not factoring in the weakness of the competition. They're playing against .442 teams, and it's probably more like .433 or less, because the AL has clobbered the NL in interleague play, and the the rest of the AL East, which constitutes 48% of our schedule, has played .531 ball against the rest of MLB. And the Sox have been a .570 team, which puts them as a .635 - .640 team, against these opponents in these parks, and that is 7-4 on the nose.
And I'm not assuming 8-3; I'm pointing out that if you assume that they can play as well as they did in the 19 game COVID stretch (.580 factoring in schedule), which seems quite reasonable, and if you assume they can be measurably better because of the return of everyone to the roster ... you get 8-3. It's not just COVID. They need only 1 game from their 5th starter, who is instead a bullpen force. The roster is better: they have Kyle Schwarber instead of Cordero / Santana, Travis Shaw instead of Marwin Gonzalez, and Iglesias as an extra via the 28-man roster. Renfroe, Kiké, and Dalbec are all better players than their season stats, in increasing order of difference. That explains how they were able to play .580 ball while shorthanded.
7-4 is splitting with Mets and winning the other three series, but not sweeping any of them. Win an extra game against the Mets, O's, or Nats and you're 8-3. One more thing. After Sale won game 3 in Tampa, I thought to myself, if they can win tomorrow and split this series -- in Tampa, and without Xander, Kiké, Arroyo, Barnes, Taylor, Sawamura, and Perez -- they're going to not lose ground in wild card race, and when they return to full strength they're going to feel invincible. I actually was going to post that, and then was going to post it after they did split the series, and I've been sitting on that thought as they won a series in Seattle for the first time in years and then swept the O's. I think the days off will help, too. I did predict 92 wins in the prediction thread, so 6-5 ought to make me happy. But 7-4 the rest of the way will, for me, be a letdown (unless game 162 is meaningless and they lose it). Incandenza essentially summarized my point. While I hope for 8-3 and can see a path that gets to that, 3 games ago I would have been nuts to say they'd go 11-3 over the final 14. So in my head they are due for a few headscratchers or a few bad bounces that lead to a loss or two that they should have won. Let's just hope it's before (or preferably, after) this weekend and not during it. Of course, you know rationally that that's completely irrational. Their expected luck, going forward, is average, as is always the case.
What both you and incandeza are missing is that the Red Sox will be favored in every game the rest of the way except Friday night (Cole vs. Pivetta). The baseline from which you start the truth that the Sox will lose some games they're expected to win is actually 9-1. You still think that ends up as 6-4, the way the team is playing now, and with their current roster? Plus Arroyo replaces Lopez starting Friday, and Whitlock replaces God-knows-who in Washington (because every single one of our current 10 relievers seems to be pitching well).
Look. If you just take the Sox current Win% of .572 you get 6-4 the rest of the way (since you can't actually win 5.7 games). And they are playing the last 10 games against .443 competition, which brings them up to 6.3 expected wins.
But that .572 was accomplished without, most of the time, Chris Sale, Kyle Schwarber, Tanner Houck, Travis Shaw, Jose Iglesias, Hansel Robles, Austin Davis, a significantly more valuable version of Garret Richards, a hugely better version of Kiké Hernandez, and an immensely better version of Bobby Dalbec. And in fact we had all of that except Kiké for just the last third of the season. Is it such a stretch to say that all the aforementioned additions (admittedly minus Whitlock for 7 games, and with a lesser Barnes) are worth 0.3 wins, so that the expectation rounds up to 7-3? I just don't see how it doesn't. That's exactly 5 WAR of added talent (over a full season) that you need to improve by. Does that list of added talent produce 5 WAR over a season?
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 22, 2021 7:47:53 GMT -5
As has been discussed ad nauseam since the Sox slump and the Jays, TBay, MFY winning streaks guess who seems to be peaking at the right time? That's right it is our Sox as they get players back from the covid issues they are taking charge. Get into the playoffs and anything can happen, especially with some renewed confidence and momentum.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 8:47:23 GMT -5
The Sox are 87-65 and if they can manage 6-4 the rest of the way I'd anticipate with a 93-69 and the tiebreakers in their favor, they would be hosting the wild card game at Fenway.
Suddenly tonight's game becomes the big bonus game, the game that can really make it extremely difficult for both Toronto and NY to catch the Sox. If the Sox win tonight and the Yankees sweep Texas and the Jays are able to manage to knock off TB, then suddenly instead of the projected split of this 2 game series and looking at 92 wins, the Sox are suddenly a game ahead of that pace and would have their projection moved up to 93 wins.
That is assuming that Pivetta is Pivetta and that E-Rod pitches another one of those gems that has his ERA flirting with 5 and the Sox lose 2 of 3 to NY. You figure at some point they're not going to have perfection against an awful O's team (on the road not having perfection is more likely) and they might drop one against a bad Nats team on the road, but still that would be a 4-2 road trip. Add a win tonight, and even a series loss against the Yankees thats 93-69.
Toronto would have to win tonight against Tampa, take 3 of 4 on the road against Minnesota, take 2 of 3 against the Yankees and then sweep Baltimore to finish at 94-68. That's a tall task.
The Yankees meanwhile, would have to go 9-1 to finish at 94-68 and if that loss is against the Red Sox, they'd have to run the table against Texas tonight, at Toronto and at Tampa (good luck with that). At that point the make or break would be just trying to get the 2nd wild card in their games against Toronto on the road.
So suddenly if the Sox win tonight, everybody else's task gets that much harder, so win tonight, don't get swept at Fenway by the Yankees (that's really the key) - they put themselves in a position that if they win tonight, they can withstand losing 2 of 3 to NY and not torpedo their wild card hopes and still have a good shot at gaining the home field advantage as long as they reasonably take care of Baltimore and Washington.
And honestly if the Sox knock off the Yankees twice in the series, they might severely damage NY's chances of even grabbing the second wild card barring the Yankees sweeping Toronto (again, good luck with that).
So this 6 game winning streak could not have come at a better time. Let's hope for the lucky 7.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 22, 2021 9:01:22 GMT -5
As I posted in the Mets thread -
My Predictions for what remains - we finish with 95 wins, MFY 89 wins, Tampa 98 wins, Toronto 92 wins.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 11:05:36 GMT -5
As I posted in the Mets thread - My Predictions for what remains - we finish with 95 wins, MFY 89 wins, Tampa 98 wins, Toronto 92 wins. I had the Sox splitting with the Mets so I'll stick with that even though there's a really decent chance the Sox take both games, but say it's a loss tonight, I figure 1 of 3 against NYY, 2 of 3 vs Bal, and 2 of 3 vs Was. That gets them to 92-70, but of course with a win tonight, that would be 93-69. I figured the Yankees would take 7 of 10 in their cake stretch so I would guess that means sweeping Texas to make up for losing 2 of 3 from Cleveland, I still think the Yankees handle Pivetta and E-Rod and take 2 of 3 vs the Sox, but then lose 2 of 3 to Toronto before taking 2 of 3 games from a vacationing TB team, so that gets them to 91-71. I have Toronto losing tonight to Tampa because I picked TB to take 2 of 3 in this series, then beating Minnesota 3 of 4, NY 2 of 3, and Baltimore 2 of 3 (not hard to see a sweep there), so it comes out to 92-70. Of course a sweep of Baltimore would bring them to 93-69 and hosting the Red Sox if the Sox finish 92-70. However a win tonight for the Sox and you're talking 93-69 meaning the Sox would be hosting Toronto for the wild card game. So just winning tonight's game would loom so large for the Sox. I truly believe 93 wins for the Sox puts them at Fenway for the Wild Card game and 92 wins is the magic number for making the playoffs, although it might not guarantee them a home game (although if both finish with 92 wins, get your tickets to Fenway....) So conservatively: Bos 92-70 Tor 92-70 NYY 91-71 Tor at Bos
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 11:28:43 GMT -5
As I posted in the Mets thread - My Predictions for what remains - we finish with 95 wins, MFY 89 wins, Tampa 98 wins, Toronto 92 wins. I had the Sox splitting with the Mets so I'll stick with that even though there's a really decent chance the Sox take both games, but say it's a loss tonight, I figure 1 of 3 against NYY, 2 of 3 vs Bal, and 2 of 3 vs Was. That gets them to 92-70, but of course with a win tonight, that would be 93-69. I figured the Yankees would take 7 of 10 in their cake stretch so I would guess that means sweeping Texas to make up for losing 2 of 3 from Cleveland, I still think the Yankees handle Pivetta and E-Rod and take 2 of 3 vs the Sox, but then lose 2 of 3 to Toronto before taking 2 of 3 games from a vacationing TB team, so that gets them to 91-71. I have Toronto losing tonight to Tampa because I picked TB to take 2 of 3 in this series, then beating Minnesota 3 of 4, NY 2 of 3, and Baltimore 2 of 3 (not hard to see a sweep there), so it comes out to 92-70. Of course a sweep of Baltimore would bring them to 93-69 and hosting the Red Sox if the Sox finish 92-70. However a win tonight for the Sox and you're talking 93-69 meaning the Sox would be hosting Toronto for the wild card game. So just winning tonight's game would loom so large for the Sox. I truly believe 93 wins for the Sox puts them at Fenway for the Wild Card game and 92 wins is the magic number for making the playoffs, although it might not guarantee them a home game (although if both finish with 92 wins, get your tickets to Fenway....) So conservatively: Bos 92-70 Tor 92-70 NYY 91-71 Tor at Bos Even with your VERY conservative premise that the Red Sox go 5-5 against subpar competition (with Sale potentially starting 3 of those games), the Jays would have to go at least 7-4 AND the Yankees would have to go at least 7-3 for the Red Sox to not make the wild card game. And that would have to happen despite a guaranteed 3 losses between the two teams in the series they play against each other.
I think that, provided they start the series 2 games up, even if the Yankees were to sweep the Red Sox the Red Sox should still be slightly favored to make the playoffs. They'd be 1 GB of the Yankees with BAL and WAS to come, whereas the Yankees would have TOR and TB. And if they swept TOR then the Red Sox would probably be ahead of TOR at that point.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 12:00:06 GMT -5
I had the Sox splitting with the Mets so I'll stick with that even though there's a really decent chance the Sox take both games, but say it's a loss tonight, I figure 1 of 3 against NYY, 2 of 3 vs Bal, and 2 of 3 vs Was. That gets them to 92-70, but of course with a win tonight, that would be 93-69. I figured the Yankees would take 7 of 10 in their cake stretch so I would guess that means sweeping Texas to make up for losing 2 of 3 from Cleveland, I still think the Yankees handle Pivetta and E-Rod and take 2 of 3 vs the Sox, but then lose 2 of 3 to Toronto before taking 2 of 3 games from a vacationing TB team, so that gets them to 91-71. I have Toronto losing tonight to Tampa because I picked TB to take 2 of 3 in this series, then beating Minnesota 3 of 4, NY 2 of 3, and Baltimore 2 of 3 (not hard to see a sweep there), so it comes out to 92-70. Of course a sweep of Baltimore would bring them to 93-69 and hosting the Red Sox if the Sox finish 92-70. However a win tonight for the Sox and you're talking 93-69 meaning the Sox would be hosting Toronto for the wild card game. So just winning tonight's game would loom so large for the Sox. I truly believe 93 wins for the Sox puts them at Fenway for the Wild Card game and 92 wins is the magic number for making the playoffs, although it might not guarantee them a home game (although if both finish with 92 wins, get your tickets to Fenway....) So conservatively: Bos 92-70 Tor 92-70 NYY 91-71 Tor at Bos Even with your VERY conservative premise that the Red Sox go 5-5 against subpar competition (with Sale potentially starting 3 of those games), the Jays would have to go at least 7-4 AND the Yankees would have to go at least 7-3 for the Red Sox to not make the wild card game. And that would have to happen despite a guaranteed 3 losses between the two teams in the series they play against each other. I think that, provided they start the series 2 games up, even if the Yankees were to sweep the Red Sox the Red Sox should still be slightly favored to make the playoffs. They'd be 1 GB of the Yankees with BAL and WAS to come, whereas the Yankees would have TOR and TB. And if they swept TOR then the Red Sox would probably be ahead of TOR at that point.
I picked the Sox to split with the Mets. At this point I have acknowledged that there's a very reasonable chance they take both games. Yesterday was the game I figured they might lose. I could wind up being correct that it's a split, but have the games reversed with the Sox winning the first losing the second rather than the other way around. Or the Sox win tonight, and that bumps my projection to 93-69, which is why tonight is really so huge, because at 93-69 I don't see anybody beating that record. Say for the sake of argument the Sox lose tonight and get swept by the Yankees, then the Sox would need to win 5 of 6 on the road, which is doable, but the Sox haven't been that great on the road lately, so 4 of 6 is more reasonable for me. Normally I'd pick TB at home to beat NY 2 of 3, but I anticipate their margin over Houston and Chicago will be large enough that they'll be resting players and might be more prone to losing 2 of 3 and not really caring. Say the Sox do complete the sweep of the Mets but get swept by the Yankees and then take 4 of 6, that would put them at 92-70. Say my projection of the Jays is accurate and they win 92 games, including 2 of 3 against NY. If the Yankees win tonight and sweep the Sox and split their final six games, then they too woud wind up 92-70. So you'd have a 3 way tie at 92-70. That would be crazy!!! You mention Sale pitches 3 times in 10 games, but you also have four games of Pivetta and E-Rod and their adventures and a 5th starter taking a turn at some point, so I don't think 5-5 is impossible at all. If the Sox lose tonight, I think 5-4 the rest of the way is probable, making them 5-5 over their final ten games. If they win tonight that's a win on top of the 5-4 I think they do the rest of the way and the 6-4 finish you're referring to. So tonight's game becomes really huge with Sale pitching. Originally I really wanted him in the Yankees series, but maybe it is best he pitches tonight against the Mets making the Sox' odds for a 2 game sweep better even if it hurts their chances of winning the Yankees series (I'm sorry but Pivetta and E-Rod in that series makes me nervous - I feel good about Eovaldi), but a win tonight makes it less important for the Sox to win the Yankees series. Basically it's win tonight and just do not to get swept by the Yankees and you're about home-free with a good shot at hosting the Wild Card game.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 12:34:50 GMT -5
Even with your VERY conservative premise that the Red Sox go 5-5 against subpar competition (with Sale potentially starting 3 of those games), the Jays would have to go at least 7-4 AND the Yankees would have to go at least 7-3 for the Red Sox to not make the wild card game. And that would have to happen despite a guaranteed 3 losses between the two teams in the series they play against each other. I think that, provided they start the series 2 games up, even if the Yankees were to sweep the Red Sox the Red Sox should still be slightly favored to make the playoffs. They'd be 1 GB of the Yankees with BAL and WAS to come, whereas the Yankees would have TOR and TB. And if they swept TOR then the Red Sox would probably be ahead of TOR at that point.
You mention Sale pitches 3 times in 10 games, but you also have four games of Pivetta and E-Rod and their adventures and a 5th starter taking a turn at some point, so I don't think 5-5 is impossible at all. I don't really want to argue about whether a 5-5 record is a realistic projection or not. I take it as a conservative projection, and it's fine to make conservative projections for psychological reasons. I mentally do it myself. And it is certainly possible they go 5-5. But I can't help but point out this line. You're calling it a bad thing that they would have Eduardo starting 2 of their last 10 games - something that should make us expect a worse record from them overall. And then the 5th starter is pretty clearly going to be Houck if he's needed. So you have them going 4-3 in 7 games against NYM, BAL, and WSN, in which Sale will start 3 of those 7 games, and Eovaldi/Rodriguez/Houck will start 3 others.
I'd just say "Hey, stuff happens, it's baseball, they might go 5-5" rather than trying to squint and see the rotation as it's lined up as a weakness rather than the obvious strength that it is.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 13:13:50 GMT -5
You mention Sale pitches 3 times in 10 games, but you also have four games of Pivetta and E-Rod and their adventures and a 5th starter taking a turn at some point, so I don't think 5-5 is impossible at all. I don't really want to argue about whether a 5-5 record is a realistic projection or not. I take it as a conservative projection, and it's fine to make conservative projections for psychological reasons. I mentally do it myself. And it is certainly possible they go 5-5. But I can't help but point out this line. You're calling it a bad thing that they would have Eduardo starting 2 of their last 10 games - something that should make us expect a worse record from them overall. And then the 5th starter is pretty clearly going to be Houck if he's needed. So you have them going 4-3 in 7 games against NYM, BAL, and WSN, in which Sale will start 3 of those 7 games, and Eovaldi/Rodriguez/Houck will start 3 others. I'd just say "Hey, stuff happens, it's baseball, they might go 5-5" rather than trying to squint and see the rotation as it's lined up as a weakness rather than the obvious strength that it is. I'm not as high on E-Rod and Pivetta as you are, apparently. I can see E-Rod losing to the Yankees but beating Washington. Pivetta against the Yankees is not a matchup I'm fond of. I think Pivetta is the guy in the rotation most likely to throw a no-hitter, but he's also the guy most likely not to make it out of the 4th inning and the guy most likely to put together a poor start. He had his super start against the White Sox. I think if he's bad/mediocre he can be bad/mediocre against anybody and if he has his stuff he can shut down anybody. I think if the Sox got deeper into the playoffs the 5 ERAs of E-Rod and Pivetta would not be considered a strength (and I don't want to go into a debate about E-Rod's peripherals - we all know he should be better than what his results have been, but he hasn't been consistently reliable over the bulk of the year). Like I've said, my hope is that E-Rod would morph into D-Lowe 2004 in which the Derek Lowe we all knew and loved finally emerged after an aggravating season of disappointment. Other than that, I don't think we have that much disagreement.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 13:29:03 GMT -5
I don't really want to argue about whether a 5-5 record is a realistic projection or not. I take it as a conservative projection, and it's fine to make conservative projections for psychological reasons. I mentally do it myself. And it is certainly possible they go 5-5. But I can't help but point out this line. You're calling it a bad thing that they would have Eduardo starting 2 of their last 10 games - something that should make us expect a worse record from them overall. And then the 5th starter is pretty clearly going to be Houck if he's needed. So you have them going 4-3 in 7 games against NYM, BAL, and WSN, in which Sale will start 3 of those 7 games, and Eovaldi/Rodriguez/Houck will start 3 others. I'd just say "Hey, stuff happens, it's baseball, they might go 5-5" rather than trying to squint and see the rotation as it's lined up as a weakness rather than the obvious strength that it is. I'm not as high on E-Rod and Pivetta as you are, apparently. I can see E-Rod losing to the Yankees but beating Washington. Pivetta against the Yankees is not a matchup I'm fond of. I think Pivetta is the guy in the rotation most likely to throw a no-hitter, but he's also the guy most likely not to make it out of the 4th inning and the guy most likely to put together a poor start. He had his super start against the White Sox. I think if he's bad/mediocre he can be bad/mediocre against anybody and if he has his stuff he can shut down anybody. I think if the Sox got deeper into the playoffs the 5 ERAs of E-Rod and Pivetta would not be considered a strength (and I don't want to go into a debate about E-Rod's peripherals - we all know he should be better than what his results have been, but he hasn't been consistently reliable over the bulk of the year). Like I've said, my hope is that E-Rod would morph into D-Lowe 2004 in which the Derek Lowe we all knew and loved finally emerged after an aggravating season of disappointment. Other than that, I don't think we have that much disagreement. Well, the two things I didn't mention in my response were Pivetta and your prediction for the Yankees series. Since we're facing Cole but they're missing Sale I don't think it's crazy to predict that the Yankees win that series. I myself have it as a coin flip.
As for Eduardo, I've pointed out a bunch of times that most of his ERA/FIP/etc. divergence is due to a 7-game stretch of ridiculously bad luck in May and June. Since June 27th his line is 3.89 ERA/3.24 FIP/3.46 xFIP. I don't know how consistent you want him to be, but I am pretty confident in him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 13:31:03 GMT -5
I'm not as high on E-Rod and Pivetta as you are, apparently. I can see E-Rod losing to the Yankees but beating Washington. Pivetta against the Yankees is not a matchup I'm fond of. I think Pivetta is the guy in the rotation most likely to throw a no-hitter, but he's also the guy most likely not to make it out of the 4th inning and the guy most likely to put together a poor start. He had his super start against the White Sox. I think if he's bad/mediocre he can be bad/mediocre against anybody and if he has his stuff he can shut down anybody. I think if the Sox got deeper into the playoffs the 5 ERAs of E-Rod and Pivetta would not be considered a strength (and I don't want to go into a debate about E-Rod's peripherals - we all know he should be better than what his results have been, but he hasn't been consistently reliable over the bulk of the year). Like I've said, my hope is that E-Rod would morph into D-Lowe 2004 in which the Derek Lowe we all knew and loved finally emerged after an aggravating season of disappointment. Other than that, I don't think we have that much disagreement. Well, the two things I didn't mention in my response were Pivetta and your prediction for the Yankees series. Since we're facing Cole but they're missing Sale I don't think it's crazy to predict that the Yankees win that series. I myself have it as a coin flip. As for Eduardo, I've pointed out a bunch of times that most of his ERA/FIP/etc. divergence is due to a 7-game stretch of ridiculously bad luck in May and June. Since June 27th his line is 3.89 ERA/3.24 FIP/3.46 xFIP. I don't know how consistent you want him to be, but I am pretty confident in him.
I think you get one good start and one bad start from him. Maybe his FIP for both games will be fine, but I can see him struggling against the Yankees and then doing a good job against Washington. Who knows, maybe he reverses that? Honestly if they're going to host the Wild Card game I don't care how they do it. Win the game, go to Tampa and then let's see good E-Rod.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 13:32:05 GMT -5
I'm not as high on E-Rod and Pivetta as you are, apparently. I can see E-Rod losing to the Yankees but beating Washington. Pivetta against the Yankees is not a matchup I'm fond of. I think Pivetta is the guy in the rotation most likely to throw a no-hitter, but he's also the guy most likely not to make it out of the 4th inning and the guy most likely to put together a poor start. He had his super start against the White Sox. I think if he's bad/mediocre he can be bad/mediocre against anybody and if he has his stuff he can shut down anybody. I think if the Sox got deeper into the playoffs the 5 ERAs of E-Rod and Pivetta would not be considered a strength (and I don't want to go into a debate about E-Rod's peripherals - we all know he should be better than what his results have been, but he hasn't been consistently reliable over the bulk of the year). Like I've said, my hope is that E-Rod would morph into D-Lowe 2004 in which the Derek Lowe we all knew and loved finally emerged after an aggravating season of disappointment. Other than that, I don't think we have that much disagreement. Well, the two things I didn't mention in my response were Pivetta and your prediction for the Yankees series. Since we're facing Cole but they're missing Sale I don't think it's crazy to predict that the Yankees win that series. I myself have it as a coin flip. As for Eduardo, I've pointed out a bunch of times that most of his ERA/FIP/etc. divergence is due to a 7-game stretch of ridiculously bad luck in May and June. Since June 27th his line is 3.89 ERA/3.24 FIP/3.46 xFIP. I don't know how consistent you want him to be, but I am pretty confident in him.
I will take it you were more confident in E-Rod yesterday than I was?
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 22, 2021 17:33:07 GMT -5
Incandenza essentially summarized my point. While I hope for 8-3 and can see a path that gets to that, 3 games ago I would have been nuts to say they'd go 11-3 over the final 14. So in my head they are due for a few headscratchers or a few bad bounces that lead to a loss or two that they should have won. Let's just hope it's before (or preferably, after) this weekend and not during it. Of course, you know rationally that that's completely irrational. Their expected luck, going forward, is average, as is always the case. What both you and incandeza are missing is that the Red Sox will be favored in every game the rest of the way except Friday night (Cole vs. Pivetta). The baseline from which you start the truth that the Sox will lose some games they're expected to win is actually 9-1. You still think that ends up as 6-4, the way the team is playing now, and with their current roster? Plus Arroyo replaces Lopez starting Friday, and Whitlock replaces God-knows-who in Washington (because every single one of our current 10 relievers seems to be pitching well).
Look. If you just take the Sox current Win% of .572 you get 6-4 the rest of the way (since you can't actually win 5.7 games). And they are playing the last 10 games against .443 competition, which brings them up to 6.3 expected wins. But that .572 was accomplished without, most of the time, Chris Sale, Kyle Schwarber, Tanner Houck, Travis Shaw, Jose Iglesias, Hansel Robles, Austin Davis, a significantly more valuable version of Garret Richards, a hugely better version of Kiké Hernandez, and an immensely better version of Bobby Dalbec. And in fact we had all of that except Kiké for just the last third of the season. Is it such a stretch to say that all the aforementioned additions (admittedly minus Whitlock for 7 games, and with a lesser Barnes) are worth 0.3 wins, so that the expectation rounds up to 7-3? I just don't see how it doesn't. That's exactly 5 WAR of added talent (over a full season) that you need to improve by. Does that list of added talent produce 5 WAR over a season?
I don't really disagree with anything you're saying, and by and large agree with everything you're saying around the best expectation. What might be throwing us off is that I'm looking at the range of possibilities and (I think) you're looking at the best expectation. My main point was that I don't think the range of outcomes being laid out reflect both sides of the distribution, it felt (at the time) to me that 7 and 8 wins were reflective of the expectation and more weight to the upside than the downside, which is why I was throwing out 6-5. You might disagree and that's where we should just move on because one of us looking at it through one lens might think 7-9 wins is the fair range and the other looking at it slightly different might say 6-8 wins, which at this point is semantics. My downside view puts less weight on SOS and just acknowledges that good teams still can play bad teams poorly. It's what we love about baseball, there's very few times we consider a baseball game to be a lock.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 22, 2021 17:45:29 GMT -5
Well, the two things I didn't mention in my response were Pivetta and your prediction for the Yankees series. Since we're facing Cole but they're missing Sale I don't think it's crazy to predict that the Yankees win that series. I myself have it as a coin flip. As for Eduardo, I've pointed out a bunch of times that most of his ERA/FIP/etc. divergence is due to a 7-game stretch of ridiculously bad luck in May and June. Since June 27th his line is 3.89 ERA/3.24 FIP/3.46 xFIP. I don't know how consistent you want him to be, but I am pretty confident in him.
I will take it you were more confident in E-Rod yesterday than I was? I want to be as optimistic as incandenza on Erod but something keeps nagging at me around maybe there is something that the expected metrics aren't picking up. And maybe it is his inability to go deep in games, that's something xFIP/FIP/etc. doesn't measure. This is now 3 out of the last 6 games he hasn't made it through 5 and it's basically been happening twice-a-month for the season. That can't happen from our number 2, and it's a hard ask on the pen to do what they did last night each time out. But I'm still feeling lukewarm confident in throwing ERod out there, he's still one of our better options even though it can be maddening to watch when he's off. And then there's this... based on my deep-dive trend analysis, ERod's been on/off/on/off this month so his next start is due for an "on".
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