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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 22:00:02 GMT -5
I will take it you were more confident in E-Rod yesterday than I was? I want to be as optimistic as incandenza on Erod but something keeps nagging at me around maybe there is something that the expected metrics aren't picking up. And maybe it is his inability to go deep in games, that's something xFIP/FIP/etc. doesn't measure. This is now 3 out of the last 6 games he hasn't made it through 5 and it's basically been happening twice-a-month for the season. That can't happen from our number 2, and it's a hard ask on the pen to do what they did last night each time out. But I'm still feeling lukewarm confident in throwing ERod out there, he's still one of our better options even though it can be maddening to watch when he's off. And then there's this... based on my deep-dive trend analysis, ERod's been on/off/on/off this month so his next start is due for an "on". To redsoxetcetc's question: I actually missed most of that inning. Seems he lost the strike zone for a spell? But he's had the lowest BB rate of his career this season (to go with the highest K rate of his career) so it doesn't seem like it's indicative of some broader problem. I mean, Eduardo is not an ace - that's why he occasionally has a stinker. But he's a very good pitcher
As for going deep into games... It's possible there's something to that. But 1) it has to be considered in the context of the league-wide numbers; as we all know 5 inning starts are pretty much the new normal. And 2) he had a 200-inning season in 2019; he missed all of 2020, and it's possible he's getting tired now. I dunno, but I'd want to see a lot more before I decided it was an issue.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 22:12:13 GMT -5
Apparently there can be exactly one hot team at a time between the AL East wild card contenders:
- Yankees 8/14-8/27: 13-0. (They went 2-11 in their next 13.)
- Blue Jays 8/28-9/13: 15-2. (They've gone 4-4 since then.)
- Red Sox 9/14-now: 7-0.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2021 22:39:23 GMT -5
Update:
If we go 5-4, by losing the Yankee series 1-2 ... [unlikely that we win that series but split the final road trip] If the Yankees sweep the Jays, they need to also sweep the Rays the last 3 days to wrest home field from us. The Jays are dead to us (but have a chance to match or pass the Yankees). If the Yankees win 2, we have home field. If the Jays win 2, they can wrest home field by going 7-0 If Jays sweep, they can wrest by going 6-1. If we go 6-3 by winning each series...
The Yankees are dead to us and the Jays need to win out, including sweeping the MFY's, to wrest home field.
If we go 6-3 by losing the Yankees series but taking 5 of 6 on the road ...
Either the Jays or Yankees can wrest home field by winning out.
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2021 2:27:01 GMT -5
I just noticed this: on 9/20, the day before the Mets series, 3 of the 4 "experts" at ESPN (Bradford Doolitle, Alden Gonzalez, and Jesse Rogers) picked the Yankees over the Sox for a wild card (and presumably the second). Three days later, the Yankees have swept the Rangers, and are still looking for a sweep this weekend or the Sox losing a series to either the O's or Nats (and not sweeping the other) in order to finish ahead of us. Only David Schoenfield, citing nothing but their respective schedules (duh!) picked the Sox over the Yankees.
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Post by gerry on Sept 23, 2021 3:01:18 GMT -5
I just noticed this: on 9/20, the day before the Mets series, 3 of the 4 "experts" at ESPN (Bradford Doolitle, Alden Gonzalez, and Jesse Rogers) picked the Yankees over the Sox for a wild card (and presumably the second). Three days later, the Yankees have swept the Rangers, and are still looking for a sweep this weekend or the Sox losing a series to either the O's or Nats (and not sweeping the other) in order to finish ahead of us. Only David Schoenfield, citing nothing but their respective schedules (duh!) picked the Sox over the Yankees.
I originally thought this might be a NYC bias, like MLB TV with most of the talking heads working in and around NYC. The actual MLB TV studio is in Secaucus NJ, 9 miles and 15-20 minutes from NYC, which explains a lot. Was surprised to learn ESPN studios, a vast campus in central CT’s city of Bristol is almost exactly the same distance (about a two hour drive) to the major sports markets of NYC and Boston. Seems like good initial planning. So why the ill considered favoritism? Just wondering.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 23, 2021 9:32:42 GMT -5
The Red Sox' well timed 7 game winning streak (the only time better for a streak like this would be October) puts the Sox squarely in the driver's seat. I'd conservatively project 5-4 the rest of the way to arrive at 93-69 which would have the Sox hosting the Wild Card game.
All they have to do is avoid getting swept by the Yankees. The winning streak has made it so that the Sox don't even have to take the series against NY. They can go 1-2 and thrive. If they did take the series two of three, that would really damage the Yankees' chances of making the playoffs given that Toronto has 4 with Minnesota and 3 at home with Baltimore. The Yanks would have to walk into Toronto and sweep them.
I figured the Yankees would go 7-3 in the stretch that included Minnesota, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Texas and that's what happened, although unanticipated was Cleveland taking two victories, so the Yanks made up for that with a sweep of Texas, who was epicly useless.
So a 2-1 for them vs Boston, 1-2 vs Tor and 2-1 vs TB makes them 5-4 and lands them at 91-71, and out of the playoffs. They would have to either sweep Boston or beat Toronto 2 of 3 to have a chance.
The Jays are behind the Yankees but are gifted 4 games against Minnesota. Usually you'd project a split, but the Twins suck so much I'd think the Jays would take 3, and they have to handle the Yankees at home and take 2 of 3, and they get the gift of 3 against Baltimore at home. Say they went 8-2 by sweeping Baltimore. That would put them at 93-69 in a tie with Boston which would still put the game in Boston. So as long as the Sox take care of business there's not much Toronto can do to pass the Sox to host the wild card game.
The pitching matchups on paper are tough for the Sox against the Yankees.
Apparently Eovaldi was flip flopped with Pivetta and will start Friday against Cole while Pivetta starts against Cortes and on Sunday it's E-Rod vs Montgomery.
I would have preferred the Sox had the advantage of Eovaldi vs Cortes and let Pivetta go against Cole, who I think is due to throw a good game because at this point the Sox only need to win 1 game.
The Red Sox fire their best bullet on Friday when the Yankees pitch their best pitcher. I would have swapped them but looking at the pitching rotation the rest of the season I can see that the primary reason for swapping Eovaldi with Pivetta was to give him that extra day of rest for Oct 5th as you can see he is clearly lined up for a wild card game (and rightfully so he should be the guy).
There is also a chance that if the Sox don't care about game 162 that Sale can be skipped and get the start, but honestly it wouldn't shock me to see Sale be a reliever or even closer on Oct 5th. The caveat being if Sale is needed that final game 162 he doesn't pitch in relief on Oct 5th and if he does pitch in relief on Oct 5th, then E-Rod would be the Game 1 and 5 starter should they advance and Sale would pitch Game 2.
Below is how I see the rotation shaping up the rest of the way:
23-Sep Off 24-Sep NYY Eovaldi 25-Sep NYY Pivetta 26-Sep NYY E-Rod 27-Sep Off 28-Sep Bal Sale 29-Sep Bal Eovaldi 30-Sep Bal Pivetta 1-Oct Was E-Rod 2-Oct Was Houck 3-Oct Was Sale 4-Oct Off 5-Oct Tor/NYY Eovaldi 6-Oct Off 7-Oct TB Sale 8-Oct TB E-Rod 9-Oct Off 10-Oct TB Eovaldi 11-Oct TB Pivetta 12-Oct Off 13-Oct TB Sale
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2021 10:25:44 GMT -5
After the Sox win the next game, the predictions for the rest of the season will be 4-4.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2021 10:26:40 GMT -5
Below is how I see the rotation shaping up the rest of the way: 23-Sep Off 24-Sep NYY Eovaldi 25-Sep NYY Pivetta 26-Sep NYY E-Rod 27-Sep Off 28-Sep Bal Sale 29-Sep Bal Eovaldi > Houck30-Sep Bal Pivetta > Eovaldi (5 days rest instead of 4) 1-Oct Was E-Rod > Pivetta (ditto)2-Oct Was Houck > E-Rod (ditto3-Oct Was Sale > or bullpen, as long as they have a 1-game lead for first WC4-Oct Off 5-Oct Tor/NYY Eovaldi > or Sale, choice likely depending on opponent (looking into that next). Eovaldi now 5 days rest instead of 6 6-Oct Off 7-Oct TB Sale > or Eovaldi8-Oct TB E-Rod 9-Oct Off 10-Oct TB Eovaldi > or Sale11-Oct TB Pivetta 12-Oct Off 13-Oct TB Sale > or EovaldiI've put in my current version. Giving Houck his start earlier gives everyone but Sale an extra day of rest, and then reduces their excess rest in the post-season.
Ideally, it turns out that they'd rather have Sale pitch the W/C game and Eovaldi pitch twice (if needed) against the Rays, or vice versa. That they have opposite handedness makes this possible.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 23, 2021 10:58:25 GMT -5
After the Sox win the next game, the predictions for the rest of the season will be 4-4. To make it clear, 5-4 clinches at least a tie for the W/C regardless of what anyone else does. It's impossible for both NYY and Tor to get to 94 because they play each other.
If the Yankees sweep us and we win 5 of 6 on the road, and NYY and Tor win out except for each other, then whoever wins their series is the first W/C and if it's not a a sweep, we're tied with the loser and play a game 163 with them.
If we beat the MFY's once and go 4-2 on the trip, then:
Yankee winning out including sweep of Jays = NYY 1, Bos 2 Yankees losing just a game to Jays = 3-way tie if Jays win; out otherwise, Bos 1, NYY 2 if they don't.
Jays win 2 from Yankees and win out otherwise - Tor 1, Bos 2
Jays sweep MFY's and go 6-1 or better in other games, ditto.
It doesn't seem worthtwhile to do Sox winning this series but splitting on the road ... basically, we've reached the point where taking one from the the Yankees plus the Jays losing once in 4 games in Minn means we just have to avoid a split on the road.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 23, 2021 12:06:52 GMT -5
Below is how I see the rotation shaping up the rest of the way: 23-Sep Off 24-Sep NYY Eovaldi 25-Sep NYY Pivetta 26-Sep NYY E-Rod 27-Sep Off 28-Sep Bal Sale 29-Sep Bal Eovaldi > Houck30-Sep Bal Pivetta > Eovaldi (5 days rest instead of 4) 1-Oct Was E-Rod > Pivetta (ditto)2-Oct Was Houck > E-Rod (ditto3-Oct Was Sale > or bullpen, as long as they have a 1-game lead for first WC4-Oct Off 5-Oct Tor/NYY Eovaldi > or Sale, choice likely depending on opponent (looking into that next). Eovaldi now 5 days rest instead of 6 6-Oct Off 7-Oct TB Sale > or Eovaldi8-Oct TB E-Rod 9-Oct Off 10-Oct TB Eovaldi > or Sale11-Oct TB Pivetta 12-Oct Off 13-Oct TB Sale > or EovaldiI've put in my current version. Giving Houck his start earlier gives everyone but Sale an extra day of rest, and then reduces their excess rest in the post-season. Ideally, it turns out that they'd rather have Sale pitch the W/C game and Eovaldi pitch twice (if needed) against the Rays, or vice versa. That they have opposite handedness makes this possible.
I think it's better to get Eovaldi 5 days rest for a Wild Card game start than preparing for the Orioles game, but if Friday's rained out, you'll ultimately be right that Eovaldi will start the final game against Baltimore rather than the middle game. It means he would be on 4 days rest from here on out.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 23, 2021 23:56:57 GMT -5
The Blue Jays' expected W/L is 93-60. The Mariners' is 71-82. Seattle is 1 game behind Toronto.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 24, 2021 2:45:45 GMT -5
Update: If we go 5-4, by winning the Yankee series and splitting the final road trip
We have home field unless the Jays win out (including sweeping the Yankees).
If we go 5-4, by losing the Yankee series 1-2 and going 4-2 on the road
The Yankees or Jays can wrest home field by winning out (including sweeping the other).
Otherwise, we have home field.
If we go 6-3 and beat the Yankees at least once ...
We have home field.
So if we beat the Yankees tonight, we just have to best .500 in the remaining 8 games to win the first W/C.
Silly dream scenario:
Sox sweep the Yankees, who then sweep the Jays ... and then get swept by the Rays who are barely trying. Yankees finish with 89 wins. Heads roll.
Jays lose one other game and finish with 90 wins.
But Mariners go 6-3 and tie them. They just beat the A's 4 straight in Oakland, so that's actually quite reasonable!
Now, that tie is incredibly bogus because the Jays had a much tougher schedule than the Mariners. But nevertheless the Jays have to get on a plane in Toronto and fly out to Seattle for the 10/4 tiebreaker.
The winner then has to get right on a plane and fly to Boston ... having burned their 2 best pitchers (if they were able to set things up), first to clinch the tie and then to win game 163.
Note that any scenario where the Jays and Mariners tie and the Yankees miss out is equivalent.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 24, 2021 8:23:34 GMT -5
Boy would I love it if the Mariners won the second wild card, for so many reasons.
First, they'd be the easiest to face (easier than a jet-lagged Blue Jays throwing their #3 starter, eric's dream scenario notwithstanding).
Second, both NY and TOR missing the playoffs after selling the farms at the trade deadline would be delicious.
And if the Red Sox did lose to them it wouldn't have the sting of a divisional rival doing it. I'd just tip my cap and root for them to beat the Houston Cheaters or the Tampa Bay Parking Garages or the Chicago Fightin' LaRussas.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2021 10:04:52 GMT -5
All the Sox have to do is avoid getting swept. They do that, then odds are very good they're hosting the wild card. Just do NOT get swept.
I figured on the Jays needing to win 5 of 7 vs Minnesota and Baltimore and needing to beat NY 2 out of 3.
They're already 0-1 against Minnesota and Baltimore which now puts pressure on them to go 5-1 against those two bad teams.
And now that series with NY looms even larger for them. They MUST win that series. I think/hope they will/should.
I hope Houston hangs close enough to Tampa to force them to try to win the series against NY at the end.
At this point, barring the Sox being swept by NY, the Jays have virtually no chance of finishing with a better record than the Sox.
And should the Sox win a game this upcoming Yankees series and then take 2 of 3 as hoped/expected from Baltimore and Washington, the Yanks have little chance to finish with a better record than the Sox.
So then it comes down to NY vs Toronto and Toronto must at least win 2 of the next 3 against Minnesota and handle NY head-to-head. They're 1 game behind NY now and they can't afford to drop that much lower.
I know Toronto is a touger matchup for the Sox (and just about everybody else) than NY, but my anxiety level needs no such Sox/Yankees playoff game.
I don't see Seattle as a serious threat although I'd love it if they snuck it. They'd basically have to just about run the table to have a chance and Toronto would have to muff their series against NY and underachieve against Baltimore and the Yankees would have to struggle with the Sox and Rays. So much would (unlikely scenarios) have to go right for Seattle to get in that I just don't see it.
I just hope the Sox find a way to win tonight to take the drama/anxiety out of this series and I hope they can win a 2nd time to put the Yankees in a bad position. I'd settle for the first scenario but would be thrilled with the latter scenario.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 24, 2021 10:24:52 GMT -5
Apparently there can be exactly one hot team at a time between the AL East wild card contenders:
- Yankees 8/14-8/27: 13-0. (They went 2-11 in their next 13.)
- Blue Jays 8/28-9/13: 15-2. (They've gone 4-4 since then.)
- Red Sox 9/14-now: 7-0.
let’s hope the Red Sox hot streak lasts 17 games....at least
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 25, 2021 6:38:02 GMT -5
Something I find interesting is the scoring differential between the Sox, MFY and BJays.
Sox +79 MFY +39 BJays + 164
If I am a Bjays fan I am scratching my head at that. IMO they win blow outs and lose close games and if they invest in a better BP they are going to be tougher next year. Their young core is impressive and cheap. They will have some FA issues that will be expensive but they should realize the opportunity they have now while they have the cheap core of mashers.
Sox brass has their challenges in keeping the Sox competitive in the east, they might see they need some upgrades. I hope they can't find some magic this year, considering the expectations to start the season it has already been a great season.
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Post by jkfer98 on Sept 27, 2021 10:50:29 GMT -5
Looking forward to a potential Wild Card game, would anyone be surprised if they used exclusively starters/Houck/Whitlock? I don't think there's a single true pen guy (aka a 1 inning guy) I'd be comfortable going to right now in a win-or-go-home game.
Like maybe this isn't saying much, but I'm going with an inning of Eduardo or Pivetta before I even think about going to any of Barnes/Ottovino/Sawamura/Darwinzon/Davis/Richards/Robles (Richards and Robles are maybes).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 27, 2021 12:13:46 GMT -5
So after the Red Sox spit the bit this weekend all Wild Card scenarios are open.
If I do a reasonably conservative projection, I get the Red Sox winning 4 of 6 and winding up 92-70.
If Toronto beats the Yankees 2 of 3 at home and then sweeps a horrible Orioles team at home which is possible, they wind up 92-70.
If the Yankees lose 2 of 3 to Toronto and then take 2 of 3 from a Tampa Bay team that doesn't care if they win or lose, then they wind up 92-70.
And you have a 3-way tie.
The Sox need to take 4 of 6 and hope that Toronto doesn't sweep Baltimore. They do that and they're in, with a reasonable chance of hosting the Yankees, although if they play the Yankees the way they've played them the past six games it won't matter where they play.
Ideally the dream is that the Yankees go 2-4, the Sox go 4-2 (or 5-1, doesn't matter for this exercise) and the Jays go 5-1. The Sox would wind up 92-70, Toronto 92-70, NY 91-71 with the wild card game at Fenway thanks to the heavy lifting Toronto and Tampa would do that the Sox couldn't do, to get rid of the Yankees.
If the Sox go 4-2 and wind up 92-70, even if the Jays go 2-1 against NY, they'd have to sweep Baltimore to tie the Sox if the Yankees wind up 92-70. If the Jays lose one of those Orioles games they're gone.
If the Sox go 4-2 and the Yankees take 2 of 3 from Toronto, Toronto would have no shot.
If the Sox find a way to lose one of those series and wind up 3-3, they're either going to fail to make the playoffs or wind up in a tie for the 2nd wild card with Toronto needing to win a Game 163 with them to be able to face the Yankees in the Wild Card game.
There's even a scenario where if the Sox go 3-3, they could wind up in a tied for the 2nd wild card with NY if they get beat in both series and Toronto goes 5-1 and finished 92-70. That would leave the Sox and Yanks tied at 91-71 and needing to win a Game 163 with the winner facing the Jays in a Wild Card game.
There's even a possibility where the Sox wind up 92-70 or better. The Yankees lose 2 of 3 to Toronto and 2 of 3 to Tampa to leave them 91-71. Toronto takes 2 of 3 vs NY and then 2 of 3 vs Baltimore. That would make them 91-71 and they'd play the Yankees for the right to be the second wild card (Go Blue Jays!!!) to face the Red Sox in the Wild Card game.
Everything is in play now. It shouldn't be, but now it is.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 27, 2021 12:25:37 GMT -5
Well let's take a gander at where we will be following the upcoming BOS/BAL and NYY/TOR series. Left column is Boston's record against Baltimore; other columns are Yankees record against the Jays (ignoring the M's and A's for present purposes); numbers are games ahead or behind:
| NYY 3-0
| NYY 2-1
| NYY 1-2
| NYY 0-3
| BOS 3-0
| WC 1: -1; WC 2: +4
| WC 1: --; WC 2: +3
| WC 1: +1; WC 2: +2
| WC 1: +1; WC 2: +2
| BOS 2-1
| WC 1: -2; WC 2: +3
| WC 1: -1; WC 2: +2
| WC 1: --; WC 2: +1
| WC 1: --; WC 2: +1
| BOS 1-2
| WC 1: -3; WC 2: +2
| WC 1: -2; WC 2: +1
| WC 1: -1: WC 2: --
| WC 1: -1; WC 2: --
| BOS 0-3
| WC 1: -4: WC 2: +1
| WC 1: -3; WC 2: --
| WC 1: -2; WC 2: -1
| WC 1: -2; WC 2: -1
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Choose your adventure! Which of these boxes do you want to be in come Friday morning? Which of them do you think we'll be in?
(Note that the Yankees are ahead of the Blue Jays in all scenarios except the 'NYY 0-3' column, where the Blue Jays are ahead of the Yankees.)
If I had to guess I'd go with the Red Sox and Blue Jays winning their series 2-1, leaving us tied for the first wild card with NY and one game up on Toronto for the second wild card. I think the best scenario for us sweeping the O's (obviously) while the Jays beat the Yankees 2-1; the scenario I most want to happen, though, is the Jays sweeping the Yankees.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 27, 2021 14:36:15 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 27, 2021 14:50:31 GMT -5
538.com has playoff chances at 78%, ESPN has it as 87%. 538 sees the final record of 92-70 for the Sox
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 27, 2021 16:24:28 GMT -5
I'm sure the folks here who hate the yankees more than they love the Red Sox couldn't stomach this, but gotta think the easiest path to just get in is to root for a Yankees sweep. That with an two Oakland wins means Boston could clinch going 3-3, worst case tie going 2-4.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2021 19:03:11 GMT -5
Something that really works in our favor: the better the Yankees fare against the Jays, the more of a threat they will appear to be to end up beating the Rays in the DS. I mean, after what just happened, who do you think the Rays are more concerned with right now?
If the Yankees win the Blue Jays series, the Rays are going to be at least somewhat invested in increasing the odds that the Yankees do not end up as their first round opponent. In this scenario I think they rest just the players that are hurting, and with the pen, split the difference between trying to win and getying guys the right amount of work.
A second point: we had horrendous luck of various sorts in the last two games, but that's probably offset by Means making his final start against the Jays instead of us. That's a huge break.
My gut feeling was that the expected wins for us the rest of the way is 4.5.
I then took our record in September (.591), adjusted it for quality of opposition (> .606), and played that against the .354 opponents we'll be facing (including their .040 home field advantage!), using the Nats record since they tanked at the deadline.
The result was 4.5 expected wins.
So:
If the Sox win out, obviously they claim WC1 unless the Yankes do as well.
If the Sox win 5 of 6, which is not at all unlikely ...
They clinch a WC.
They're WC1 unless the Yankees win 2 of 3 against the Jays and sweep the Rays, or vice versa. Which is definitely hugely tougher than our winning 5. They are .641 since the deadline, but against .447 opponents (and that's with us as .606 rather than .564), which puts them at .589. Using the season records of the Jays and the Rays, their competition is .590. Their expected wins are 3.0. You can certainly bump that in the direction of 4 if you think that their being hot counts (and it probably doesn't) or because the Rays won't be all in, but you can't get it up to 4.5.
If the Sox win 4 ...
In a nutshell, because the Yankees lead the Jays by 2, their winning that series assures us of being the a WC but reduces the odds of being WC1. The Jays winning increases our chances of WC1 but introduces the possibility of losing game 163 -- or games 163 and 164.
In a 3-way tie, we would host the Jays, and the next day the Yankees host the loser. So the possibilities are:
Tor at Bos, Tor at NYY, Tor at Bos Tor at Bos, Tor at NYY, NYY at Bos Tor at Bos, Bos at NYY, Bos at Tor Tor at Bos, Bos at NYY, NYY at Tor
The play-in game scenario is on the table if the Jays win the Yankees series and then sweep the O's. If they take 2 of 3, and the Yankees sweep the Rays, then the Yankees are WC1 and we host the Jays on Monday. If the Yankees lose 1 to the Rays, it's a 3-way tie, and if the Yankees also lose their series to the Rays, they're out and we're WC1.
If the Jays sweep the Yankees, the Yankees need to sweep the Rays to tie us, and the Jays will fall into a tie with us if they lose one to the O's, and fortunately the Means for that are in place. The scenario here is in fact identical to the last one except with the Yankees and Jays swapped.
Scenarios where the Yankees win their series are simpler, because that combined with 4 Sox wins eliminates the Jays. So it comes down to being WC1 if the Yankees split the last 6 games but WC2 if they win 4 or more.
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 27, 2021 23:43:12 GMT -5
Watch Seattle sneak in around everyone lol. They’re the Rays’ kryptonite this year
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2021 3:45:27 GMT -5
Well, we went from 1 GB and an expected Sox 4.5 wins - 3.0 NYY wins = 1.5 game gain, hence projected 0.5 games ahead, to:
2 GB and an expected 3.75 - 2.5 = 1.25 gain, hence projected 0.75 games behind.
The extra 0.25 lost wins is the ticking clock.
If we can gain the game back tonight, we'll project finish in a tie (and hence WC1), but nothing more.
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