ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2021 6:55:05 GMT -5
The A's have the last Thursday off before the end of the season, and we don't. But before that they are playing 16 straight days, 9/14 to 9/29, during which we'll have four off days, which is to say, every possible one with normal scheduling: Thu 9/16, Monday 9/20, Thu 9/23, Mon 9/27. That's a huge ease for lining up the post-season rotation, vs. very little leeway for them.
The A's are 4 games into a stretch of 15 straight. They have Wed 8/25, Mon 8/30, Mon 9/6, and Mon 9/13 off, for a total of 5. They never have 2 off days in a 4 day span (Mon + Thu), while we have that 3 times, although the first of those is negated by a DH the next day; it's 9 total days off, functionally 8. So it's a lot more rest (for everyone) as well.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 19, 2021 21:46:17 GMT -5
we are now on the outside looking in after tonight
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 20, 2021 23:54:25 GMT -5
we are now on the outside looking in after tonight Even with the win the Sox gain no ground. Both NY and Oakland won. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 21, 2021 9:04:41 GMT -5
The Sox are going to catch the Rays and finish in first by kicking the shizzle out of them head to head.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 21, 2021 12:54:48 GMT -5
we are now on the outside looking in after tonight Even with the win the Sox gain no ground. Both NY and Oakland won. But the Jays Rays and Mariners all lost. Not that I really fear Seattle. And with Springer out and The other Jays hitters slumping they are also probably done. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 21, 2021 14:40:08 GMT -5
Even with the win the Sox gain no ground. Both NY and Oakland won. But the Jays Rays and Mariners all lost. Not that I really fear Seattle. And with Springer out and The other Jays hitters slumping they are also probably done. Seattle has been outscored. They're not a legit contender. The Jay's should be the primary wild card but have underachieved. Wouldnt really count on them. It's a 3 horse race for 2 wild card spots. |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 21, 2021 22:31:15 GMT -5
We are now half game behind Oakland for the last wild card after tonight's unexpected thumping by Texas.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 22, 2021 12:16:48 GMT -5
But the Jays Rays and Mariners all lost. Not that I really fear Seattle. And with Springer out and The other Jays hitters slumping they are also probably done. Seattle has been outscored. They're not a legit contender. The Jay's should be the primary wild card but have underachieved. Wouldnt really count on them. It's a 3 horse race for 2 wild card spots. Mariners Fans are probably looking at the Sox last 20 games and saying the same about us. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 23, 2021 17:18:41 GMT -5
The Red Sox are back in the second wild card spot, and have a pretty big advantage in the fangraphs playoffs odds - 76%, vs. 29% for the A's (and 89% for the Yankees).
There's still a pretty good chance this all winds up with a sudden death game between the Red Sox and Yankees, probably Sale vs. Cole. That seems apt.
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Post by jmei on Aug 23, 2021 19:47:44 GMT -5
The Red Sox are back in the second wild card spot, and have a pretty big advantage in the fangraphs playoffs odds - 76%, vs. 29% for the A's (and 89% for the Yankees). There's still a pretty good chance this all winds up with a sudden death game between the Red Sox and Yankees, probably Sale vs. Cole. That seems apt.
Sale for five, Whitlock for two, Ottovino in the 8th and Barnes in the ninth. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 23, 2021 22:36:14 GMT -5
The Red Sox are back in the second wild card spot, and have a pretty big advantage in the fangraphs playoffs odds - 76%, vs. 29% for the A's (and 89% for the Yankees). There's still a pretty good chance this all winds up with a sudden death game between the Red Sox and Yankees, probably Sale vs. Cole. That seems apt.
Sale for five, Whitlock for two, Ottovino in the 8th and Barnes in the ninth. Don't know that Ottavino and Barnes instill a lot of confidence at this point, particularly Barnes. I'd much rather see the game at Fenway than Yankees Stadium, although it's hard to imagine at this point with the Yankees seeming only lose players to the Covid list, but they don't lose ballgames. This season has some weird 1978 vibes going on with the Sox blowing a huge lead over the Yankees and the two teams seemingly on a collision course to meet for a one game playoff that gets one team into the real playoffs and the other eliminated. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2021 12:53:59 GMT -5
After today, games remaining versus teams below .425 (actually .410 as of today) - games remaining against contenders:
9 - 6 Red Sox 6 - 9 Yankees 3 - 9 Jays 0 - 10 Mariners 0 - 13 A's
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2021 0:54:21 GMT -5
Not sure if this has been pointed out -- the Wild Card home-field tie-breakers are all done.
Boston Toronto New York
Part of the Yankees' problem is that they're 6-10 against each of their two rivals.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 13, 2021 11:37:39 GMT -5
Remaining strength of schedule: Red Sox
| .470 | | Yankees | .494 | Blue Jays
| .507 | | A's | .512 | | Mariners | .512 |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 15, 2021 2:33:26 GMT -5
How tough must it be to be an A's fan? Last time they came from < 25% Win Probability to win was August 11. Since then, they've had the following losses:
77.2 8/16 92.9 8/21 84.6 8/22 89.1 8/23 79.3 9/1
(pretty terrible, eh! Just you wait ...)
99.4 9/3 97.9 9/11 94.0 9/14
They are 9-8 after establishing 75% since 8/16.
They are 7-5 after 89% since 8/21.
They are 3-3 after 94% since 9/3.
I broke down their schedule, as the most formidable W/C rival, on the night of 8/13, so I am totally taking credit for their collapse. 
With average performance in those 8 games, they're 3.5 G up on the trio of AL East clubs.
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Post by lonborgski on Sept 16, 2021 10:36:36 GMT -5
Remaining strength of schedule: Red Sox
| .470 | | Yankees | .494 | Blue Jays
| .507 | | A's | .512 | | Mariners | .512 |
Looking at the remaining schedules today for the Sox, MFYs and Jays, the Orioles have by far the worst overall winning percentage of any opponents, .317 (and we have 6 games with them, 3 at Fenway and 3 in Baltimore), but the Rangers have the worst away winning percentage, .297 (and the MFYs have 3 games with them in New York). That said, the Mets have the biggest difference between their home winning percentage and their away winning percentage, .184 difference (.581 home, .397 away), and our 2 games with them are at Fenway. |
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 16, 2021 15:32:03 GMT -5
With 14 games left ( and 3 off days) it will be interesting to see how the pitching lines up. If Sale dose indeed pitch tomorrow he could start 4 of those games and be on regular rest. So they go to a 4 man rotation from here ? Is it Houck that goes to pen?? Or ?? Obvious the last couple games could be different depending on what happens.
Fri Baltimore. Sale. Sale
Sat Baltimore. Pivetta Pivetta
Sun Baltimore Erod. Erod
Mon off
Tuesday Mets. Evo Evo
Wed Mets Houck. Sale
Thursday off
Fri MFY Sale. Pivetta
Sat MFY. Pivetta. Erod
Sun MFY. Erod. Evo
Mon off
Tue Baltimore Evo. Sale
Wed Baltimore Houck. Pivetta
Thur Baltimore Sale. Erod
Fri Washington Pivetta. Evo
Sat Washington Erod. Houck
Sun Washington Evo. Sale
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 16, 2021 16:17:11 GMT -5
I like the idea of putting Hauck in Pen. But, Sale misses Yankees if above
starters happen.
My guess is we keep Hauck in rotation next week. Sale Goes against MFY’s with 6 days rest. Saturday and Sunday starters will have 6 days rest too. Pivetta and ERod. Hauck and Eovaldi get Mets. Hauck would be available for pen use on Saturday and Sunday vs MFY’s if he pitches Tuesday.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 16, 2021 20:48:08 GMT -5
To state the obvious, that was a costly loss for the Yankees. Their fangraphs playoff odds went from 60.5% to 50.7%. Red Sox improved from 72.8% to 75.7%.
Remaining strength of schedule: Red Sox
| .468 | Blue Jays
| .500 | | Yankees | .512 |
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 16, 2021 21:48:52 GMT -5
I like the idea of putting Hauck in Pen. But, Sale misses Yankees if above starters happen. My guess is we keep Hauck in rotation next week. Sale Goes against MFY’s with 6 days rest. Saturday and Sunday starters will have 6 days rest too. Pivetta and ERod. Hauck and Eovaldi get Mets. Hauck would be available for pen use on Saturday and Sunday vs MFY’s if he pitches Tuesday. If you stick with 5 man Sale gets 3 starts. But lots of rest. And it would be 5 days rest and he would line up for wild card game. |
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 16, 2021 21:59:58 GMT -5
I like the idea of putting Hauck in Pen. But, Sale misses Yankees if above starters happen. My guess is we keep Hauck in rotation next week. Sale Goes against MFY’s with 6 days rest. Saturday and Sunday starters will have 6 days rest too. Pivetta and ERod. Hauck and Eovaldi get Mets. Hauck would be available for pen use on Saturday and Sunday vs MFY’s if he pitches Tuesday. If you stick with 5 man Sale gets 3 starts. But lots of rest. And it would be 5 days rest and he would line up for wild card game. Going on a win streak in Baltimore, while important in general, is equally important in setting up the pitching rotation for that 1-game playoff. If they can get some breathing room, that'll help them decide whether they need to go all-in for the final series. These off days give them a ton of flexibility. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 17, 2021 4:21:58 GMT -5
No do not go with a 4 man rotation. The Sox can't tire out the rotation before the playoffs even start, be confidant that they will get in. The schedule is going to work in their favor and they are getting guys back at a good time.
I know it would be better for us Sox fans if they were already in but it is great for baseball and pretty interesting to see the Sox, MFY and Jays all in a virtual tie for the last playoff spots. This is such a tough division to compete in and the future is looking like it could get even tougher. Yankees will be in spend mode again after a yr going under. The Jays have some great young players and TBay is always a threat, some how with 80M dollar rosters.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 17, 2021 5:40:26 GMT -5
Cora apparently said given the number of off days they have he might use starters in the bullpen like they do in the playoffs. I don't think he means it QUITE like that, but more that Houck and maybe Pivetta might be in the bullpen for certain games and if they're used, then they'll get skipped.
With this many off days they can go 4-man and still give his extra rest.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 17, 2021 17:50:16 GMT -5
With 14 games left ( and 3 off days) it will be interesting to see how the pitching lines up. If Sale dose indeed pitch tomorrow he could start 4 of those games and be on regular rest. So they go to a 4 man rotation from here ? Is it Houck that goes to pen?? Or ?? Obvious the last couple games could be different depending on what happens. Fri Baltimore. Sale. Sale Sat Baltimore. Pivetta Pivetta Sun Baltimore Erod. Erod Mon off Tuesday Mets. Evo Evo Wed Mets Houck. Sale Thursday off Fri MFY Sale. Pivetta Sat MFY. Pivetta. Erod Sun MFY. Erod. Evo Mon off Tue Baltimore Evo. Sale Wed Baltimore Houck. Pivetta Thur Baltimore Sale. Erod Fri Washington Pivetta. Evo Sat Washington Erod. Houck Sun Washington Evo. Sale Core just said on the pre-game that Sale will pitch against the Mets and indicated the starters against the MFY are TBD. I'd rather save Sale for the MFYs next Friday night. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2021 17:57:36 GMT -5
With 14 games left ( and 3 off days) it will be interesting to see how the pitching lines up. If Sale dose indeed pitch tomorrow he could start 4 of those games and be on regular rest. So they go to a 4 man rotation from here ? Is it Houck that goes to pen?? Or ?? Obvious the last couple games could be different depending on what happens. Fri Baltimore. Sale. Sale Sat Baltimore. Pivetta Pivetta Sun Baltimore Erod. Erod Mon off Tuesday Mets. Evo Evo Wed Mets Houck. Sale Thursday off Fri MFY Sale. Pivetta Sat MFY. Pivetta. Erod Sun MFY. Erod. Evo Mon off Tue Baltimore Evo. Sale Wed Baltimore Houck. Pivetta Thur Baltimore Sale. Erod Fri Washington Pivetta. Evo Sat Washington Erod. Houck Sun Washington Evo. Sale Core just said on the pre-game that Sale will pitch against the Mets and indicated the starters against the MFY are TBD. I'd rather save Sale for the MFYs next Friday night. Me, too. That's why I was hoping they'd flip flop Sale and Pivetta, so the Yankees can't tee off on Pivetta again and the Sox would have their best 3 against the Yankees in a series they must win twice. |
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