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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 29, 2021 7:29:34 GMT -5
ESPN has us at 74 percent chance. MFY 92. Toronto and Seattle in the 15 range. Tonight's games are of course, huge
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Post by incandenza on Sept 29, 2021 7:58:34 GMT -5
[Updating the possibilities:] Well let's take a gander at where we will be following the upcoming BOS/BAL and NYY/TOR series. Left column is Boston's record against Baltimore; other columns are Yankees record against the Jays (ignoring the M's and A's for present purposes); numbers are games ahead or behind:
| NYY 3-0
| NYY 2-1
| NYY 1-2
| BOS 2-1
| WC 1: -2; WC 2: +3
| WC 1: -1; WC 2: +2
| WC 1: --; WC 2: +1
| BOS 1-2
| WC 1: -3; WC 2: +2
| WC 1: -2; WC 2: +1
| WC 1: -1: WC 2: --
| BOS 0-3
| WC 1: -4: WC 2: +1
| WC 1: -3; WC 2: --
| WC 1: -2; WC 2: -1
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There's still just one scenario where we're not at least tied for the second wild card spot, and only 3/9 in which we aren't in sole possession of it.
Of course it's getting harder to hand-wave the Mariners away, though, as they're now actually ahead of Toronto...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2021 9:39:10 GMT -5
Might as well continue the projections thing I do:
I'll project the Sox to win the next 2 against Baltimore and I'll project them to win 2 of 3 against Washington which makes them 92-70. Of course the way they're playing I wouldn't be shocked if they dropped one of the remaining games in Baltimore and/or lost 2 of 3 in Washington. But I'll stick with my projections which gets them to 92 wins, even though I'm not too optimistic about that.
With the Yankees/Jays, I projected 2 wins for Toronto against NY, but I feel the odds of that really went down. At this point I think they split. But I do think Toronto will sweep Baltimore, even with John Means going the middle game, so I'll put them at 4-1 the rest of the way which gets them to 91-71 and out of the playoffs.
The Yankees should be on cruise control. I guess they pick up 1 more win in Toronto and take 2 of 3 from Tampa who will have clinched HFA by then, so that gives them 93 wins and the Wild Card game against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium.
Can't believe I have to do this but I'll project Seattle to lose today to Oakland and then take 2 of 3 from Anaheim, so that will leave them at 91-71 and out of the playoffs.
In the Sox' best case semi-realistic scenario, the Yankees either lose both Toronto games or 2 of 3 against Tampa which would leave them them 92-70 and tied with the Sox with the game at Fenway assuming the Sox can go 4-1 the rest of the way, which at this moment seems like a really dubious assumption.
If the Sox go 3-3 the rest of the way, they probably find themselves in a tie for the second wild card spot unless Toronto wins out the rest of the way which I doubt at this point although I can see 4-1. It's also possible the Jays do lose to John Means. Their best pitchers aren't going in the Orioles series, so it is possible they do drop a game there, but I think with the HFA and the bad pitchers they're facing, they could very well explode with the bats and sweep.
So I think there's a realistic scenario of the Sox tying the Jays, playing a game 163 and the winner playing the Yankees in NY in a Wild Card game.
The dream is that the Yankees lose both games against Toronto and lose 2 of 3 against Tampa. That would give them 91 wins and if the Sox can win 92 and Toronto makes it to 91 perhaps they can knock the Yankees off in a Game 163. I don't see that happening. Or better yet, Toronto beat NY twice but lose 2 of 3 to Baltimore to wind up with 90 wins and the Mariners make it to 91 wins and beat the Yankees in a Game 163 before losing to the Sox in a Wild Card game.
A potential scenario that I don't know how they would entangle would be if the Yankees win the first wild card and Boston, Toronto, and Seattle tie with 91 wins. How does that work?
I know how it works when you have 3 teams tied vying for 2 spots, but what the hell do they do if 3 teams are vying for 1 spot?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2021 10:48:19 GMT -5
[Updating the possibilities:] Well let's take a gander at where we will be following the upcoming BOS/BAL and NYY/TOR series. Left column is Boston's record against Baltimore; other columns are Yankees record against the Jays (ignoring the M's and A's for present purposes); numbers are games ahead or behind:
| NYY 3-0
| NYY 2-1
| NYY 1-2
| BOS 2-1
| WC 1: -2; WC 2: +3
| WC 1: -1; WC 2: +2
| WC 1: --; WC 2: +1
| BOS 1-2
| WC 1: -3; WC 2: +2
| WC 1: -2; WC 2: +1
| WC 1: -1: WC 2: --
| BOS 0-3
| WC 1: -4: WC 2: +1
| WC 1: -3; WC 2: --
| WC 1: -2; WC 2: -1
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There's still just one scenario where we're not at least tied for the second wild card spot, and only 3/9 in which we aren't in sole possession of it.
Of course it's getting harder to hand-wave the Mariners away, though, as they're now actually ahead of Toronto...
Their schedule may well be easier than it looks. The Angels are 8-16 in September while the Mariners are 17-8.
If the A's had managed to split their 6 games with the Mariners instead of getting swept, the two team positions would be swapped.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 29, 2021 10:58:44 GMT -5
I know how it works when you have 3 teams tied vying for 2 spots, but what the hell do they do if 3 teams are vying for 1 spot? "In the event of a three-team tie for just one Wild Card Game spot, teams would still choose or receive A, B and C designations. Club A would host Club B, and the winner of that matchup would face Club C to determine who advances to the Wild Card Game."
The Red Sox would choose to be team C in all possible scenarios, I guess, since they won the season series against NY, TOR, and SEA.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2021 11:04:22 GMT -5
I know how it works when you have 3 teams tied vying for 2 spots, but what the hell do they do if 3 teams are vying for 1 spot? "In the event of a three-team tie for just one Wild Card Game spot, teams would still choose or receive A, B and C designations. Club A would host Club B, and the winner of that matchup would face Club C to determine who advances to the Wild Card Game." The Red Sox would choose to be team C in all possible scenarios, I guess, since they won the season series against NY, TOR, and SEA.
So it sounds like the team with the tiebreaker advantage gets a huge advantage because they only have to win once while the other teams would have to win twice to advance? And Club C would be on the road, I assume?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2021 23:09:48 GMT -5
"In the event of a three-team tie for just one Wild Card Game spot, teams would still choose or receive A, B and C designations. Club A would host Club B, and the winner of that matchup would face Club C to determine who advances to the Wild Card Game." The Red Sox would choose to be team C in all possible scenarios, I guess, since they won the season series against NY, TOR, and SEA.
So it sounds like the team with the tiebreaker advantage gets a huge advantage because they only have to win once while the other teams would have to win twice to advance? And Club C would be on the road, I assume? Yes. The actual MLB rule uses "hosts" instead of "face(s). Sht did the author of this story change it? I don't know.
The odds if all teams are equal, with all teams having the standard .540 % at home: 46% team C, 29% team A, 25% team CB.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2021 0:00:51 GMT -5
Wouldn't it be nice to see the Yankees Have an unexpected late collapse? Boston fans would not get out their hankies As they eat their clams and drink their frappes
You know it's gonna make things that much sweeter If Gerrit Cole cannot command his heater
Wouldn't it be nice, home field advantage, By the end of play on Saturday Get a look at every last reliever
While the Yankees lose to Tampa Bay
Winning games together we'll be watching While the Yankee easy plays are botching Oh, wouldn't it be nice?
Maybe if we think and wish and hope and pray It might come true ...
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Scenarios to follow!
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Post by jkfer98 on Sept 30, 2021 0:12:41 GMT -5
The Mariners are a GD menace. Ugh.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2021 3:26:10 GMT -5
Another reason for the Rays to play decently hard against the Yankees: they'd love some ties for the WC, which might force their eventual opponent to burn an extra top pitcher from the rotation. Having a #3 starter pitch games 1 and 5 in the DS is a disadvantage they'd love to force on whoever they face.
There's actually four possible tie scenarios: 2- and 3-way ties for second WC, and 3- and 4-way ties for both spots.
There is in fact s a real chance of a 4-way tie at 92 wins if both we and the Jays win again today.
That's the Jays sweeping the O's, the Mariners sweeping the Angels, us winning 2 in DC, and the Yankees winning two from the Rays.
We'd have home field as team A, and the Jays (2nd best record versus the other three teams, regardless of what happens today) would pick team C as the other host. The very interesting moment is when the Yankees choose which team to play, leaving the Mariners to play the other.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2021 6:01:17 GMT -5
Wouldn't it be nice to see the Yankees Have an unexpected late collapse? Boston fans would not get out their hankies As they eat their clams and drink their frappes
You know it's gonna make things that much sweeter If Gerrit Cole cannot command his heater
...
Maybe if we think and wish and hope and pray It might come true ...
---
Scenarios to follow!
If the Yankees do miss the playoffs, will they be motivated to spend a lot of money? Perhaps in an ill-advised fashion? Geeze, if I'm the Rays, I'd love to knock them right out of the playoffs and see what the answers to those questions are. And if the Yankees lose tonight -- and they ought to be underdogs given the matchup (see the series thread) -- then that happens if they beat the Yankees twice, and if either the Jays sweep the O's, or the Mariners sweep the Angels. I think that if I ran the numbers, I'd find that that was slightly likelier than not.
A while ago I posted, not very seriously, a dream scenario where the Yankees miss the playoffs and the Jays have to fly to Seatlle for a play-in game, with whoever wins having to fly to Boston the next day. Well, that's the above scenario with both of them sweeping and us winning out.
Another very friendly scenario is the above, but with both the Mariners and Jays losing a game ... that puts the other three teams in a tie at 91 wins (and gives us a game we can lose). That's a 2-day play-in, with the Yankees hosting the Mariners and the winner hosting the Jays. So if Seattle won, both teams would have to fly to Seattle and the winner would have to fly back back to Boston to play the next day.
Of course, there are doubtlessly other people making up crazy best-case scenarios for their team ... in three other cities. Gotta love it.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 30, 2021 7:17:12 GMT -5
The Mariners are a GD menace. Ugh. I counted them out all year and laughed when they re-uped Dipoto, but I was wrong. It's a good team with a clear path to stay good for a bit. Matt Andriese is doing well for them, 2.45 ERA and 12k in 11 relief innings (look like low leverage based on box score, but still)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2021 8:40:11 GMT -5
The Mariners are a GD menace. Ugh. I counted them out all year and laughed when they re-uped Dipoto, but I was wrong. It's a good team with a clear path to stay good for a bit. Matt Andriese is doing well for them, 2.45 ERA and 12k in 11 relief innings (look like low leverage based on box score, but still) I think Andriese was designated for assignment by the Mariners too just recently if I recall correctly.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2021 8:52:10 GMT -5
Sticking with projections - why not? It's good to be wrong all the way to the end.
I picked the Sox to win 2 of 3 vs Baltimore so tonight would be a win although I'm not as confident about a win tonight as I was yesterday. I'm expecting a nerve wracking slugfest.
I picked the Jays to win 2 of 3 so I hope I'm right. I figured the pitching matchup favored the Jays in Game 1 so naturally the Yankees starter got hurt and the Yankees won. I figured the Yankees had the matchup in Game 2 so they'd win, but instead Toronto win. I figure Toronto has the advantage today with Robbie Ray....but I've been wrong twice so far....hope I'm right this time.
I predict the Mariners won't win or lose tonight. I'm pretty reasonably confident in that projection.
If I were right, that means Boston re-ties NY at 90-69 and Toronto ties Seattle at 89-70.
I'm guessing Boston, NY, Toronto, and Seattle win 2 of 3 in the final series, although I could see Toronto sweeping the Orioles at home. If they did that, Boston, NY, and Toronto wind up tied at 92-70 with Seattle a game back at 91-71. If Toronto fails to do that, the Sox would host the Yankees.
The Jays don't have their best pitchers going against Baltimore and the O's have Means pitching the middle game. The Cy Young winner who shut the Sox down on Tuesday is supposed to pitch the finale. Call me crazy, but I think he morphs from Dave McNally into the guy whose name I can't even remember.
The Rays clinching home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs killed off any chances that the games would actually matter for the Rays, which is great news for the Yankees. It might mean that Wander Franco doesn't play a game or two, but for the most part the Rays going on vacation would effect them less than any other clinching team. The Rays aren't built on a handful of stars. They're a deep team built on a ton of depth so if one guy doesn't play the next guy coming in is probably just as good. That's the only mitigating factor that could trip up the Yankees.
Really, a lot of all these suppositions come down to tonight. If the Sox and Yankees win, the Jays are in big trouble and will need for the Sox to lose 2 of 3 and the Jays would need to sweep the O's (both scenarios are not that impossible).
If the Yankees win and Sox lose, the Sox could find themselves in a situation where they could find themselves playing in a 2 or 3 way tie that results in a Game 163.
Sox must win tonight!! Go Toronto!
The Rays gotta be loving all this.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 30, 2021 9:45:12 GMT -5
Still can’t believe we got swept by the Yankees. We need some serious luck to avoid playing them in a one game playoff at this point.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2021 9:49:01 GMT -5
Still can’t believe we got swept by the Yankees. We need some serious luck to avoid playing them in a one game playoff at this point. Yup, fantastic or awful. If the Sox blow the playoff spot they avoid playing the Yankees in the Wild Card game. If the Yankees lose 3 of their remaining 4 games and the Sox wins 3 of their remaining 4 games or more and the Jays or Mariners run the table or only lose once and beat the Yankees in Game 163, the Sox would avoid playing the Yankees in the Wild Card Game. I prefer the latter scenario.
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Post by bcsox on Sept 30, 2021 13:43:37 GMT -5
not sure if I saw it posted in here but the Angels shut down Ohtani from pitching for the rest of the year, which is of benefit to the Mariners.
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Post by costpet on Sept 30, 2021 14:12:38 GMT -5
After reading all the if/thens , my head hurts.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 30, 2021 16:03:29 GMT -5
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Post by costpet on Sept 30, 2021 18:34:05 GMT -5
STOP IT !
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Post by lostinnewjersey on Sept 30, 2021 19:51:32 GMT -5
Um, we are not watching a championship team here.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 30, 2021 21:50:54 GMT -5
So, here are the latest playoff odds for the main players, according to 538.com
MFY - 97% Boston - 45% Seattle - 42% Toronto - 16%
So much for being in control of your destiny and doing something about it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2021 22:25:50 GMT -5
Ok, so "logic" projections, the same genius one that had the Sox winning 2 of 3 against Baltimore would have the Sox taking 2 of 3 against Washington to land at 91-71.
NYY take 2 of 3 from TB to finish 93-69 and host the WC game.
Toronto takes 2 of 3 from Baltimore to finish 90-72.
Seattle takes 2 of 3 from LAA to tie the Sox at 91-71 and the Sox defeat Seattle in Game 163 to claim the Wild Card with a record of 92-71.
That's what logic says. My eyes say: The Sox will find a way to lose 2 of 3 to Washington to finish with the same 90-72 record the highly revered 2011 team had.
The Blue Jays will hit the crap out of the Orioles crappy pitching at home. The only thing that could prevent a sweep would be John Means pitching a gem, but I'll pick them two sweep the Orioles at home just the way I projected 2 of 3 for the Sox at home against Baltimore but said there's no reason they can't take all 3. That will make the Jays the Wild Card team to face the Yankees.
The Mariners will somehow lose 2 or 3 and wind up 91-71. That's what my gut tells me.
The Sox should get the second wild card, but should have, could have, didn't....I don't trust this team to accomplish that, and if they did why would I feel good about a team that can't beat the Orioles on the road when it matters to beat the Yankees in a 1 game playoff in New York? My guess is they don't even get there. They might land in a tie with Toronto, but if so the Jays knock them out in Game 163, which might be the better way to go.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 1, 2021 1:21:15 GMT -5
So what ? Who here expected the Sox to be even in contention 6 months ago. There are some people here with some serious issues. Instead of admitting they were totally wrong about the entire season, they seem to be reveling in I told you so when in fact they were off the charts wrong.
Some people need a life.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 2, 2021 0:41:30 GMT -5
Watched the Mariners-Angels and LA extricated itself from a bases loaded no out situation to go on and win the game 2-1. That's thanks to Quijada who came on to K three in a row to get them out of that jam. The Sox and Tampa just need to keep on winning at this point.
Add: The AL East will, in all likelihood, have four teams with 90 or more wins, which is sort of ridiculous given that they each play so many games against division opponents. No other MLB division has more than two teams that top that mark. Sort of puts the Orioles in a different light. They deserve some sympathy.
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