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What does a Devers Extension look like?
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Post by manfred on Sept 13, 2021 11:19:47 GMT -5
There are three options: 1) extension 2) trade for pennies on the $, get a package of guys who won’t reach his value combined (but cheap!) 3) do number three AND direct the money at a free agent.
But if you do 3, who? Are you going to do the Lindor deal or something? C’mon. Raffy at age 26 signing a 10-year $350 mill is better than signing a 29-year old to a 10-year $300 million contract.
In the end, they might not extend him, but no move comes out making the team on the field better. Cheaper maybe, but not better.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 13, 2021 12:09:11 GMT -5
The biggest worry around Xander and Devers is that they play premium defensive positions with plus bats, but their defensive aging curve looks pretty bleak. For Devers it’s plus range, but lots of mistakes, so if his range diminishes, he could become a significant defensive liability. For Xander, he’s already a defensive liability with his limited range at short. Our infield defense is really handcuffed, so the only remedy is to get rid of one or both of them, which really sucks. In a vacuum I definitely stretch to keep Devers. But after this year I don't know how you make a long-term plan that includes Xander at SS and Devers at 3B. I think Devers is "fine" at 3b, but he could just as easily fall off a cliff as he could improve. Can't commit to Devers (or X) until you really understand if we're comfortable being an all-hit-poor-field team. X is obviously incredibly valuable (and I think we underrate his bat, frankly), but the left side of the infield needs to be more reliable. On a related note, Verdugo's step back is a huge problem; I thought he'd be a decent CF or Plus RF and now he's barely adequate at LF and is a platoon bat?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 13, 2021 12:09:17 GMT -5
sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2020/05/08/a-closer-look-at-defensive-aging-curves/According to this, peak age for defensive value is 26. But I do think Devers defensive issues are a bit overstated, at least by the numbers. He grades out as a bit under average according to fangraphs and BR defensive values. Not great, but perfectly livable for someone with his bat. UZR thinks he is about average, but DRS thinks he is dreadful. I don't think it is crazy to project him as a slightly below average third baseman for the next 4 or 5 years. His bat more then makes up for that and if he doesn't maintain around near average, the bat plays at 1st and DH. I think we more or less agree, which leads me to believe he'll DH more than play the field, sooner than later, which will affect the terms of any future extension. But I don't think they'll extend him as a 3B after a huge year at the plate when they have two more years to work with and he's a risk to move to DH.
I disagree that they'll teach him to play 1B. With any luck, the 1B situation is currently working itself out before our eyes (there's also a young LH hitting 1B knocking at the door). It would be an adjustment but I would say that Raffy could more easily learn to play 2B than 1B. He's athletic (witness that DP turn last night and rumor has it that he's still only 24) and unless you think Christian Arroyo (or Jeter Downs) is the answer for the next 2-3 years, that may continue to be a position through which guys are rotated.
Raffy could more easily learn to play 2B than 1B? That's a .... novel take. Is there anyone who could more easily learn to play 2B than 1B? If there were, would it be the 240 pound guy who makes a lot of errors at 3b?
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 13, 2021 14:35:00 GMT -5
Let me tell you something you sign this kid. You had him in the system, you know how he ticks. This is the kid you open up the checkbook for. He is a good kid too. He can play in this market. I just hope if something happens to Xander he doesnt take it personal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 13, 2021 14:48:34 GMT -5
I still think if X re-signs that Devers is less likely to stay and if X leaves the Sox are more likely to show Devers the money - as long as his defense looks sound.
I can't see the Sox shelling out $325 - $350 million for Devers if they think he'll spend the majority of that contract as a DH.
He'll have to be a viable 3b for at least the rest of the decade because I doubt 1b will be available once Casas gets going.
But let's put out a scenario where the Sox look to the future and see X as the face of the franchise. Well X probably requires $30 million/year over 10 years. The Sox do that figuring that Bogaerts remains at SS until Mayer is ready to take over and Bogaerts goes elsewhere on the diamond, whether it's 3b which would mean that Devers doesn't get extended or a corner OF position which opens the door for Devers to be extended, but do they spend that much money on two players?
And if X goes to another team, then the money is clearly there for Devers as long as the Sox think he's a viable 3b for the majority of his extension.
I just think the two are linked and X will force the issue after next season.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 13, 2021 15:16:57 GMT -5
I think we more or less agree, which leads me to believe he'll DH more than play the field, sooner than later, which will affect the terms of any future extension. But I don't think they'll extend him as a 3B after a huge year at the plate when they have two more years to work with and he's a risk to move to DH.
I disagree that they'll teach him to play 1B. With any luck, the 1B situation is currently working itself out before our eyes (there's also a young LH hitting 1B knocking at the door). It would be an adjustment but I would say that Raffy could more easily learn to play 2B than 1B. He's athletic (witness that DP turn last night and rumor has it that he's still only 24) and unless you think Christian Arroyo (or Jeter Downs) is the answer for the next 2-3 years, that may continue to be a position through which guys are rotated.
Raffy could more easily learn to play 2B than 1B? That's a .... novel take. Is there anyone who could more easily learn to play 2B than 1B? If there were, would it be the 240 pound guy who makes a lot of errors at 3b? I've got loads of novel takes that you don't like. They just keep on comin'...
EDIT: Just got a minute to include my reasoning:
1) Cora has said on air that Raffy is his emergency SS and takes grounders every day at SS. No, it's not 2B but it's a lot closer than 1B, which is a much different animal.
2) I was also speaking within the context of Raffy DHing most of the time and filling in from time to time in the field. So maybe 40 games a year split between 3B and 2B, depending on need.
3) The preponderance of shifting in the modern game diminishes the importance of 2B defense (something the guys have discussed on the podcast on numerous occasions). Obviously, having a great 2B is a good thing but it's not as important as having a great SS or CF. (And again, see #2. We're talking maybe 10-20 games a season at 2B.)
4) Last, not least, Raffy clearly does not want to move to 1B; it's something he has resisted since Day 1 (because it started coming up basically on Day 1 by fat-shamers who like to cite his weight). He sees himself as an athlete and a fielder and has embraced the idea of being an emergency SS (according to Cora). Based on this, I believe he would prefer learning 2B over 1B. Obviously, he would likely resist going to DH but there's a big difference between his below-average defense at 3B for 150 games and below-average D at 3B and 2B for 40 games and he needs to understand what that means to the team.
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 13, 2021 15:21:20 GMT -5
Do they spend that much money on 2 guys that aren't great defensively at their positions, very important positions obviously, that could hamstring you later. They certainly aren't going to be better fielding 3rd and SS in their 30's when they are marginal in their 20's
And for the people thinking that the bashing is uncalled for you need to take it in the context it is being discussed. It isn't a question of whether they are great players or not. It is a question as to the long term cost vs value that you expect to get along with LT roster building. If Raffy continues to lead the league in errors every year then that is an issue and affects his value regardless of how many great plays he makes. they all make great plays once in a while.
Now if Bogey can play left field that is different but it is hard to see both of them being worth 30 and 35 for the next 11 years.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2021 15:30:27 GMT -5
Perhaps Devers should just stand there at 3B and not move so he doesn't make errors. You can't make an error if you don't try to make plays.
Since errors and therefore fielding percentage are all that matters, why doesn't Xander get as much credit as Devers gets blame? Xander is 6th in MLB in fielding percentage for SS. Much better than Andrelton Simmons and Lindor.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 13, 2021 20:09:27 GMT -5
I think that in the CB era the team's decisions on extensions will (and should) depend on each player's willingness to take less than top-of-the-market money pre-free agency to lock in security.
I heard Rob Bradford say recently (not that's an authority on what's going on in Raffy's head) that he thinks Raffy wants to get to FA to maximize the payout. If that's the case, the RS have to trade him in advance of FA, as they did with Mookie. Ditto for X. If he's looking for Lindor money, move him this off-season.
Massive, long-term contracts prevent teams for competing for long stretches. As I've said on here, I look forward to the MFYs giving massive money and years to Judge this off-season. He, Cole and Stanton will account for >$100M in AAV. I'll enjoy their decline years.
I totally trust Bloom to handle the X and Raffy decisions in an unsentimental, business-like way that gives us the best shot at more parades.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Sept 13, 2021 20:22:26 GMT -5
If the Sox view it as Devers OR Bogaerts on a long term contract, I'd rather have Devers anyway
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 14, 2021 6:50:46 GMT -5
Raffy could more easily learn to play 2B than 1B? That's a .... novel take. Is there anyone who could more easily learn to play 2B than 1B? If there were, would it be the 240 pound guy who makes a lot of errors at 3b? I've got loads of novel takes that you don't like. They just keep on comin'...
EDIT: Just got a minute to include my reasoning:
1) Cora has said on air that Raffy is his emergency SS and takes grounders every day at SS. No, it's not 2B but it's a lot closer than 1B, which is a much different animal.
2) I was also speaking within the context of Raffy DHing most of the time and filling in from time to time in the field. So maybe 40 games a year split between 3B and 2B, depending on need.
3) The preponderance of shifting in the modern game diminishes the importance of 2B defense (something the guys have discussed on the podcast on numerous occasions). Obviously, having a great 2B is a good thing but it's not as important as having a great SS or CF. (And again, see #2. We're talking maybe 10-20 games a season at 2B.)
4) Last, not least, Raffy clearly does not want to move to 1B; it's something he has resisted since Day 1 (because it started coming up basically on Day 1 by fat-shamers who like to cite his weight). He sees himself as an athlete and a fielder and has embraced the idea of being an emergency SS (according to Cora). Based on this, I believe he would prefer learning 2B over 1B. Obviously, he would likely resist going to DH but there's a big difference between his below-average defense at 3B for 150 games and below-average D at 3B and 2B for 40 games and he needs to understand what that means to the team.
These are all very weak arguments and none of them support the claim that he could “ more easily learn to play 2B than 1B.” Being an emergency SS during a pandemic is not an endorsement of potential to play 2b The moves at SS are easier for big guys than 2b. The double play pivot involves quickness he just does not have. Not the hands, not the feet, not the right kind of arm. The 3-5-3 double play he was on the middle off was fairly easy. You can’t just take your power forward and ask him to guard the other team’s point guard. 2b range will always count. If you’re saying “he’d be terrible at 2b but who cares” I half agree with you, and you have conceded my point.
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 14, 2021 7:05:00 GMT -5
Perhaps Devers should just stand there at 3B and not move so he doesn't make errors. You can't make an error if you don't try to make plays. Since errors and therefore fielding percentage are all that matters, why doesn't Xander get as much credit as Devers gets blame? Xander is 6th in MLB in fielding percentage for SS. Much better than Andrelton Simmons and Lindor. I started to reply to this yesterday and decided not to. Then an error last night cost the Sox the game, 7th inning Schwarber. Your comment about not moving is comical if not irritating. Errors matter, defense matters and yes Bloom needs to and will take that into consideration when thinking about who he gives a 35 million/yr contract offer to. Devers leads the league in errors for 3rd basemen every year and you want to talk about the great plays he makes. All third basemen make great plays and the good ones make even more, it's the hot corner great plays are bound to happen and I don't see Devers making some crazy amount of great ones. Bottom line is the teams D has been bad this season and that needs to be addressed moving forward, it is not something that Bloom will overlook.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 14, 2021 8:05:45 GMT -5
Perhaps Devers should just stand there at 3B and not move so he doesn't make errors. You can't make an error if you don't try to make plays. Since errors and therefore fielding percentage are all that matters, why doesn't Xander get as much credit as Devers gets blame? Xander is 6th in MLB in fielding percentage for SS. Much better than Andrelton Simmons and Lindor. I started to reply to this yesterday and decided not to. Then an error last night cost the Sox the game, 7th inning Schwarber. Your comment about not moving is comical if not irritating. Errors matter, defense matters and yes Bloom needs to and will take that into consideration when thinking about who he gives a 35 million/yr contract offer to. Devers leads the league in errors for 3rd basemen every year and you want to talk about the great plays he makes. All third basemen make great plays and the good ones make even more, it's the hot corner great plays are bound to happen and I don't see Devers making some crazy amount of great ones. Bottom line is the teams D has been bad this season and that needs to be addressed moving forward, it is not something that Bloom will overlook. Over the last 3 seasons, Devers has been exactly an average 3B according to statcast. Identical to Manny Machado. You cannot only look at errors.
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Post by jbsox on Sept 14, 2021 9:10:24 GMT -5
I think that in the CB era the team's decisions on extensions will (and should) depend on each player's willingness to take less than top-of-the-market money pre-free agency to lock in security. I heard Rob Bradford say recently (not that's an authority on what's going on in Raffy's head) that he thinks Raffy wants to get to FA to maximize the payout. If that's the case, the RS have to trade him in advance of FA, as they did with Mookie. Ditto for X. If he's looking for Lindor money, move him this off-season. Massive, long-term contracts prevent teams for competing for long stretches. As I've said on here, I look forward to the MFYs giving massive money and years to Judge this off-season. He, Cole and Stanton will account for >$100M in AAV. I'll enjoy their decline years. I totally trust Bloom to handle the X and Raffy decisions in an unsentimental, business-like way that gives us the best shot at more parades. This is probably the best approach, and I know many fans myself included get attached and like seeing players at Devers caliber play from beginning to end in a Sox uniform. I’m hoping for deals that is good for both sides to keep both Devers and Xander in a Sox uniform long term, but I’ll understand if that doesn’t happen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 14, 2021 9:39:49 GMT -5
I think that in the CB era the team's decisions on extensions will (and should) depend on each player's willingness to take less than top-of-the-market money pre-free agency to lock in security. I heard Rob Bradford say recently (not that's an authority on what's going on in Raffy's head) that he thinks Raffy wants to get to FA to maximize the payout. If that's the case, the RS have to trade him in advance of FA, as they did with Mookie. Ditto for X. If he's looking for Lindor money, move him this off-season. Massive, long-term contracts prevent teams for competing for long stretches. As I've said on here, I look forward to the MFYs giving massive money and years to Judge this off-season. He, Cole and Stanton will account for >$100M in AAV. I'll enjoy their decline years. I totally trust Bloom to handle the X and Raffy decisions in an unsentimental, business-like way that gives us the best shot at more parades. This is probably the best approach, and I know many fans myself included get attached and like seeing players at Devers caliber play from beginning to end in a Sox uniform. I’m hoping for deals that is good for both sides to keep both Devers and Xander in a Sox uniform long term, but I’ll understand if that doesn’t happen. I think you make a good point. I figure the least likely scenario is that the Red Sox extend both Devers and X. X comes up first. If he extends, the Sox probably wind up trading Devers as you mention as it would be stupid to let him walk away for nothing. My gut feeling (not that I'm right) is that X is more likely to extend than Devers. As a SS he could easily move to 3b or possibly even a corner OF position if need be. There's some defensive flexibility. For all we know Yorke could wind up in LF down the road and X at 2b if not the other way around. 3b would be the most likely destination. But the Sox have to be willing to pay him a lot more than $20 million/year. I don't think the Sox want to go to $30 million/year and likely he goes if he insists on that, but if anybody is more willing to take a somewhat home discount it would be Xander. Maybe $27 - $28 million year for 8 or 9 years? If Xander walks the Sox turn to Devers and if he insists on going to free agency I think they'll deal him. It very possible that neither remain and it's also quite possible that it's alright if both wind up going down the road. A lot of that comes to how well the Sox can replace Devers at 3b down the road whether it's Brandon Howlett developing or Blaze Jordan blazing his path but able to stay at 3b defensively, which is an open question (a 1b conversion is unlikely given Casas' presence). As far as the long-term fit, it's easy to see pros and cons with both as they age. X has the better defensively flexibility and I honestly think he has a better hit tool. I can see him maintaining a good batting average and OBP via his good strike zone judgment for quite a long time. With Devers, he's ok at 3b, but is error prone. I can see him being below average within 5 years at 3b, so he'd have to move to 1b or DH and if so I'd have some concerns about his offense being good enough to maintain it down the road. Batting average is hardly a great indicator, but if he's in the .270s now, perhaps his average dips down toward .240 - .250. He has taken a lot more walks but he still swings at a lot of pitches that make me think his increase in walks in more of a fear factor thing than necessarily maturity, but I could be wrong about that. I just think he could become a .260, 30 - 35 HR guy who winds up a 1b/DH. Do you want to pay a guy like that $33 - $35 million per year? I guess there's pros and cons both ways with both players, which is why I can see scenarios where only one or neither extend. It's tough to figure out who the person is to give all that money to. You have to make sure you get as many good years out of those types of contracts as possible because you know at some point it becomes an albatross. You'd just hate to have that happen within the first third or half of the contract. Me the fan....I hope X gets extended and the Sox get a good trade for a year of Devers or have the full value of him remaining for his 2023 season if that's a season the Sox have true World Series aspirations, and then get the draft pick for him walking. As a fan, I think Bogaerts is the kind of guy I can see being a Sox for life the way Williams, Yaz, Pedroia, Tek, or Wake and Ortiz (I know that Wake and Ortiz started their major league careers elsewhere but they chose to stay). I can see Bogaerts getting his 3000th hit and hitting 400 HRs the way Yaz did.
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Post by manfred on Sept 14, 2021 9:59:06 GMT -5
My question is this: if you don’t resign X and/or Devers, with an aging JDM, where are you? No one in the minors projects to match those three at their best (even Casas). So now you need to look outside to make up a *lot* of offense. Who is that? How much is it?
Even if you assume Yorke and Mayer are an all star combo, that could easily be 4-5 years from now. I do not want to be in a rebuild that waits on 18-year olds.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 14, 2021 10:07:46 GMT -5
My question is this: if you don’t resign X and/or Devers, with an aging JDM, where are you? No one in the minors projects to match those three at their best (even Casas). So now you need to look outside to make up a *lot* of offense. Who is that? How much is it? Even if you assume Yorke and Mayer are an all star combo, that could easily be 4-5 years from now. I do not want to be in a rebuild that waits on 18-year olds. If you don't sign either of them, then you do have the money to find somebody else that you think would be a better long-term investment. Odds are that one of them is extended. I think if the Sox make X a reasonable offer, he'll take it. Perhaps the Sox are willing to spend 250 - 300 million but don't want to get into the 300 - 350 million area? My guess is Devers will look to maximize, like Betts.
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Post by manfred on Sept 14, 2021 10:13:46 GMT -5
My question is this: if you don’t resign X and/or Devers, with an aging JDM, where are you? No one in the minors projects to match those three at their best (even Casas). So now you need to look outside to make up a *lot* of offense. Who is that? How much is it? Even if you assume Yorke and Mayer are an all star combo, that could easily be 4-5 years from now. I do not want to be in a rebuild that waits on 18-year olds. If you don't sign either of them, then you do have the money to find somebody else that you think would be a better long-term investment. Odds are that one of them is extended. I think if the Sox make X a reasonable offer, he'll take it. Perhaps the Sox are willing to spend 250 - 300 million but don't want to get into the 300 - 350 million area? My guess is Devers will look to maximize, like Betts. But who is that better investment? Most guys reach FA at a point when you know you are eating the latter half of a mega contract. I prefer the two guys we know to a big wad of cash to spend on the FA roulette wheel. Needing to make a splash got us Crawford, Hanley, Panda…
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 14, 2021 10:28:25 GMT -5
If you don't sign either of them, then you do have the money to find somebody else that you think would be a better long-term investment. Odds are that one of them is extended. I think if the Sox make X a reasonable offer, he'll take it. Perhaps the Sox are willing to spend 250 - 300 million but don't want to get into the 300 - 350 million area? My guess is Devers will look to maximize, like Betts. But who is that better investment? Most guys reach FA at a point when you know you are eating the latter half of a mega contract. I prefer the two guys we know to a big wad of cash to spend on the FA roulette wheel. Needing to make a splash got us Crawford, Hanley, Panda… I'm agreeing with you for sure Manfred. It takes two to tango obviously but if X/Rafi can be signed to an extension before free agency that's the way to go. When guys get to free agency it opens up a bidding war. I'd love Juan Soto obviously but he's going to get more than what X/Rafi would cost. If the sox won't spend on X and or Rafi than to me it seems like they won't go high dollar long term on anyone.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 14, 2021 10:41:33 GMT -5
If you don't sign either of them, then you do have the money to find somebody else that you think would be a better long-term investment. Odds are that one of them is extended. I think if the Sox make X a reasonable offer, he'll take it. Perhaps the Sox are willing to spend 250 - 300 million but don't want to get into the 300 - 350 million area? My guess is Devers will look to maximize, like Betts. But who is that better investment? Most guys reach FA at a point when you know you are eating the latter half of a mega contract. I prefer the two guys we know to a big wad of cash to spend on the FA roulette wheel. Needing to make a splash got us Crawford, Hanley, Panda… Manfred, I think it's likely they bring one of them back, that they sign either X or Devers with my guess that they come to some sort of large raise but not top of the market contract extension with Bogaerts. I think this because I think he's more likely wanting to be a lifelong Red Sox and he has the defensive flexibility to move off of SS to other positions as he ages with 3b most likely but the possibility of LF or 2b if necessary. On the off chance it's neither, they could splurge on a superstar outfielder or a superstar pitcher. Doesn't have to be a 3b necessarily. More likely they'd split their expenditures to improve the pitching and outfield or catching. I figure by then that's where the needs are most likely to be. I know you don't want to rely on guys who are 18 right now. I get it, but I can see Yorke hitting like Pedroia and being pretty successful sooner than later. Can't ignore the Cory Seager comparisons that Mayer has. Both Pedroia and Seager were rookies of the year so it's not necessarily a given they will struggle upon their promotion. That said, I think that's a strawman argument because it's not like the Sox FO is going to say, we got Mayer and Yorke and Casas for 3/4 of the infield, we need no other strong offensive components. They're going to get either a superstar whether it's X or Devers or somebody they like outside the organization or they'll split their money on above average/occasional all-star caliber players.
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Post by manfred on Sept 14, 2021 11:02:19 GMT -5
But who is that better investment? Most guys reach FA at a point when you know you are eating the latter half of a mega contract. I prefer the two guys we know to a big wad of cash to spend on the FA roulette wheel. Needing to make a splash got us Crawford, Hanley, Panda… Manfred, I think it's likely they bring one of them back, that they sign either X or Devers with my guess that they come to some sort of large raise but not top of the market contract extension with Bogaerts. I think this because I think he's more likely wanting to be a lifelong Red Sox and he has the defensive flexibility to move off of SS to other positions as he ages with 3b most likely but the possibility of LF or 2b if necessary. On the off chance it's neither, they could splurge on a superstar outfielder or a superstar pitcher. Doesn't have to be a 3b necessarily. More likely they'd split their expenditures to improve the pitching and outfield or catching. I figure by then that's where the needs are most likely to be. I know you don't want to rely on guys who are 18 right now. I get it, but I can see Yorke hitting like Pedroia and being pretty successful sooner than later. Can't ignore the Cory Seager comparisons that Mayer has. Both Pedroia and Seager were rookies of the year so it's not necessarily a given they will struggle upon their promotion. That said, I think that's a strawman argument because it's not like the Sox FO is going to say, we got Mayer and Yorke and Casas for 3/4 of the infield, we need no other strong offensive components. They're going to get either a superstar whether it's X or Devers or somebody they like outside the organization or they'll split their money on above average/occasional all-star caliber players. I’m not bashing the 18-year olds. They look great. But it’ll be time. I agree with this, but it returns to the question: who? Put it this way: if you could sign *anyone* to a mega contract right now of 10-12 years, who would it be? I mean, Soto, Vlad… Tatis? Anyway… the point is, not the elite guys like Trout, for example. So who would you target over Devers? I get that you can spread the money, but even then it isn’t always simple. FAs tend to get paid for the past, and, as I said, you often have to eat later years. I get the case for not resigning X. I’m not on that side, but I get it. But with Devers, barring demands that simply blow up all economy, he has to be retained. It is a must.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 14, 2021 11:07:58 GMT -5
Manfred, I think it's likely they bring one of them back, that they sign either X or Devers with my guess that they come to some sort of large raise but not top of the market contract extension with Bogaerts. I think this because I think he's more likely wanting to be a lifelong Red Sox and he has the defensive flexibility to move off of SS to other positions as he ages with 3b most likely but the possibility of LF or 2b if necessary. On the off chance it's neither, they could splurge on a superstar outfielder or a superstar pitcher. Doesn't have to be a 3b necessarily. More likely they'd split their expenditures to improve the pitching and outfield or catching. I figure by then that's where the needs are most likely to be. I know you don't want to rely on guys who are 18 right now. I get it, but I can see Yorke hitting like Pedroia and being pretty successful sooner than later. Can't ignore the Cory Seager comparisons that Mayer has. Both Pedroia and Seager were rookies of the year so it's not necessarily a given they will struggle upon their promotion. That said, I think that's a strawman argument because it's not like the Sox FO is going to say, we got Mayer and Yorke and Casas for 3/4 of the infield, we need no other strong offensive components. They're going to get either a superstar whether it's X or Devers or somebody they like outside the organization or they'll split their money on above average/occasional all-star caliber players. I’m not bashing the 18-year olds. They look great. But it’ll be time. I agree with this, but it returns to the question: who? Put it this way: if you could sign *anyone* to a mega contract right now of 10-12 years, who would it be? I mean, Soto, Vlad… Tatis? Anyway… the point is, not the elite guys like Trout, for example. So who would you target over Devers? I get that you can spread the money, but even then it isn’t always simple. FAs tend to get paid for the past, and, as I said, you often have to eat later years. I get the case for not resigning X. I’m not on that side, but I get it. But with Devers, barring demands that simply blow up all economy, he has to be retained. It is a must. Depends how long Devers is a viable 3b. Not saying he won't be but over the duration of a 10 year contract it's a legit question and whether he'll be remain a good enough offensive player to be worth the money if he's a DH or 1b. I mean you could get two mid level contracts - and yes, this will make my argument look like crap, but something along the dollars and year commitments that Sandoval and Hanley got - yeah have to invest it in better players, but you get the point. It doesn't have to be a 10 year $350 million commitment. You can spread the money around and if you do a good job of choosing the players who can give you value for those type of contracts, that can work, too.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 14, 2021 12:07:50 GMT -5
As long as the Red Sox payroll is near the top of the league, I'm not going to complain. I'm happy to bet on Chaim's ability to efficiently spend money on baseball players.
I hope they resign Devers just cause it's fun rooting for him for reasons beyond his ability to win baseball games.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 14, 2021 15:41:43 GMT -5
I think there's virtually no chance they sign both players. CB has to realize that defense is a big problem for this team. He's also a builder who wants sustainable success. I can't imagine he says, "Hmmm, the best fix for the defense and for preserving payroll flexibility would be to sign the replacement-level SS and sub-replacement-level 3B to massive extensions." I'd put it at 50-50 at best that they sign one of the two. If they do, I think it's likely to X. But that will require him and Boras being realistic about his value going forward. If he can't stick at SS and his bat declines moderately, his value takes a big hit. A LF in his early 30s with average defense and, let's say a 120 OPS-plus, isn't a super-valuable commodity. I don't want to be locked into that player for another six to eight years at big $$$. (X will turn 30 late next season and is at a 130 OPS-plus this season.)
Some people are afraid to see stars leave. But the X-Devers situation presents as much opportunity as peril. They could bring young players who will join Casas, Meyer and Yorke as key parts of the Next Great RS team.
I actually think the peril is in the other decision - re-upping players to ridiculous contracts.
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
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Post by shagworthy on Sept 14, 2021 15:52:16 GMT -5
Perhaps Devers should just stand there at 3B and not move so he doesn't make errors. You can't make an error if you don't try to make plays. Since errors and therefore fielding percentage are all that matters, why doesn't Xander get as much credit as Devers gets blame? Xander is 6th in MLB in fielding percentage for SS. Much better than Andrelton Simmons and Lindor. That's essentially what Bogey has done, and Jeter did for most of his career defensively. lol. I know that sounds derisive, but I don't mean it that way. Both are/were excellent players who's weakest attribute happened to be defense. My hope is that someone can get in the fragile ear of Bogey and convince him to move off of SS to either LF or 2B. I'm not as married to Verdugo long term as I was last year given he has durability concerns long term, but Doogie at least relishes (like Bogey) playing in Boston, so there is something to be said for that. It's been a pretty good year all things considered, is the team flawed? Sure. I'm interested to see how it all plays out in the end.
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