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What does a Devers Extension look like?
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Post by notnickyorke on Sept 11, 2021 6:07:22 GMT -5
I think one of the main goals of this offseason should be to sign Devers to a long term deal. My initial ballpark figure of this was that it would be something similar to the massive contracts given out to the other best young stars of the game the last few years (Tatis, Harper, Machado, Arenado, Lindor), minus a bit because he is still a few years from free agency and doesn't play as premium a position or doesn't play it as well as they do. Something in the range of 240 to 290 million. It didn't seem like a crazy amount of money for one of the best young hitters in the game to get. But, then I started comparing numbers are realized he is not really the same class of player as the ones who have been getting massive paydays. Its not really even close. Tatis already has him beat in career WAR in less then half of the plate appearances. So I made a spreadsheet of better comparable players and the extensions they signed (link below). The tough part is that there really isn't a perfect comparable player for Devers. He is very singular and no one matches up to his situation perfectly in regards to age, games played, position, defensive shortcomings, and offensive potential. The best two I've found are Bregman and Freddy Freeman, who both signed relatively team friendly deals. Also, Freeman is a 1B who signed his deal longer ago and Bregman is a superior player at that point in his career who played a decent amount of shortstop. Regardless, they are the best I can come up with, but I did add a bunch of others I considered to the spreadsheet. I put two tables for comparison with Devers, one for career numbers before signing the extension and one for the numbers of the just the previous 3 seasons. I also added what I think is the ceiling and floor of a reasonable Devers extension. They are both probably a bit too high, but the market has gotten even crazier for young élite players the last few years. Would love to hear your thoughts. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dZNU8cb30IS9jWwOu0m2aAfLedtnuMJhIP7RlvHHABE/edit?usp=sharing |
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Post by cheers on Sept 11, 2021 8:57:45 GMT -5
Nice work. I think this is going to be a tough signing. If you are in the front office, you don't want to be paying Raffy after age 33 - due to his body type and seemingly marginal discipline. Also, his numbers suggest that what he is now may be what he is - which is really good, but not elite.
I think if you take the floor row from the spreadsheet and make all those post-arb numbers a 25, you'd be about where the negotiations are realistically going to start. If I'm the GM, that is also where they end...
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,977 
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Post by jimoh on Sept 11, 2021 8:58:13 GMT -5
I think one of the main goals of this offseason should be to sign Devers to a long term deal. My initial ballpark figure of this was that it would be something similar to the massive contracts given out to the other best young stars of the game the last few years (Tatis, Harper, Machado, Arenado, Lindor), minus a bit because he is still a few years from free agency and doesn't play as premium a position or doesn't play it as well as they do. Something in the range of 240 to 290 million. It didn't seem like a crazy amount of money for one of the best young hitters in the game to get. But, then I started comparing numbers are realized he is not really the same class of player as the ones who have been getting massive paydays. Its not really even close. Tatis already has him beat in career WAR in less then half of the plate appearances. So I made a spreadsheet of better comparable players and the extensions they signed (link below). The tough part is that there really isn't a perfect comparable player for Devers. He is very singular and no one matches up to his situation perfectly in regards to age, games played, position, defensive shortcomings, and offensive potential. The best two I've found are Bregman and Freddy Freeman, who both signed relatively team friendly deals. Also, Freeman is a 1B who signed his deal longer ago and Bregman is a superior player at that point in his career who played a decent amount of shortstop. Regardless, they are the best I can come up with, but I did add a bunch of others I considered to the spreadsheet. I put two tables for comparison with Devers, one for career numbers before signing the extension and one for the numbers of the just the previous 3 seasons. I also added what I think is the ceiling and floor of a reasonable Devers extension. They are both probably a bit too high, but the market has gotten even crazier for young élite players the last few years. Would love to hear your thoughts. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dZNU8cb30IS9jWwOu0m2aAfLedtnuMJhIP7RlvHHABE/edit?usp=sharing How about Rendon [just turned 31]?: "Anthony Rendon signed a 7 year / $245,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Angels, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $245,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $35,000,000. In 2021, Rendon will earn a base salary of $27,500,000, while carrying a total salary of $28,071,428." www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-angels/anthony-rendon-11447/ |
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Post by cheers on Sept 11, 2021 9:03:07 GMT -5
How about Rendon [just turned 31]?: "Anthony Rendon signed a 7 year / $245,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Angels, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $245,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $35,000,000. In 2021, Rendon will earn a base salary of $27,500,000, while carrying a total salary of $28,071,428." www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-angels/anthony-rendon-11447/I think it is possible that the Angels' FO was really coked up when they signed that contract. Crazy overpay, that I'm sure Raffy's agent is going to use as a reference, but the Sox FO will dismiss as a typically desperate Angels move. |
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Post by alan on Sept 11, 2021 9:05:22 GMT -5
How about Rendon [just turned 31]?: "Anthony Rendon signed a 7 year / $245,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Angels, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $245,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $35,000,000. In 2021, Rendon will earn a base salary of $27,500,000, while carrying a total salary of $28,071,428." www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-angels/anthony-rendon-11447/I think it is possible that the Angels' FO was really coked up when they signed that contract. Crazy overpay, that I'm sure Raffy's agent is going to use as a reference, but the Sox FO will dismiss as a typically desperate Angels move. Rendon was a top 3 MVP candidate at that time, I don't think its a "crazy overpay" |
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Post by cheers on Sept 11, 2021 9:08:20 GMT -5
I think it is possible that the Angels' FO was really coked up when they signed that contract. Crazy overpay, that I'm sure Raffy's agent is going to use as a reference, but the Sox FO will dismiss as a typically desperate Angels move. Rendon was a top 3 MVP candidate at that time, I don't think its a "crazy overpay" Check back with me in 2024-2026 when they are paying him $38M/yr for being 34-36. I suspect it will seem plenty crazy then. Edit: I think it is easy to overlook just how horrible almost all (probably 85-90%??)these big money deals end up being on the back end. |
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 11, 2021 21:11:25 GMT -5
As of today the Red Sox have 96 fielding errors as a team.
Devers is responsible for 20 of those errors (~%20) tops on the Sox (Dalbec has 12) second most on the Sox.
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Post by notnickyorke on Sept 11, 2021 22:03:06 GMT -5
How about Rendon [just turned 31]?: "Anthony Rendon signed a 7 year / $245,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Angels, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $245,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $35,000,000. In 2021, Rendon will earn a base salary of $27,500,000, while carrying a total salary of $28,071,428." www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-angels/anthony-rendon-11447/I don't think he works as a good comp. The first season his contract covered was his age 30 season as opposed to Devers's 25 if it is signed this offseason. Also, Rendon has been a far superior player. Devers best season by BWar is 5.4 and his others don't really come close to that. Rendon had 3 seasons better then Dever's best before he signed that contract. Rendon is a great third basemen defensively, where Devers should most likely move off the position in the next few years. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 11, 2021 22:35:51 GMT -5
I think a Devers extension will be as a full-time DH, not as a 3B. That's going to affect the number a lot.
EDIT: ... which is why I don't think they do it this off-season. They've got two more years to wait and it says here he will be changing roles in that time.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,977
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Post by jimoh on Sept 12, 2021 8:01:12 GMT -5
I think a Devers extension will be as a full-time DH, not as a 3B. That's going to affect the number a lot.
EDIT: ... which is why I don't think they do it this off-season. They've got two more years to wait and it says here he will be changing roles in that time.
You think Devers signs a contract with a team that wants him to be a DH? He so obviously loves playing defense. |
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Post by patford on Sept 12, 2021 9:58:11 GMT -5
Unless they can work out a very team friendly deal with Devers I'd rather see the Sox hold off. He's been very good this year but not nearly up to the level I was expecting and I'm starting to wonder if he will ever be the absolute monster of a hitter I imagined (+.300 BA and 45-55 HR). His defense can be spectacular but the errors are a lingering problem.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 12, 2021 10:10:54 GMT -5
Unless they can work out a very team friendly deal with Devers I'd rather see the Sox hold off. He's been very good this year but not nearly up to the level I was expecting and I'm starting to wonder if he will ever be the absolute monster of a hitter I imagined (+.300 BA and 45-55 HR). His defense can be spectacular but the errors are a lingering problem. Do we forget he has not yet turned 25? The floor is what we see now: a 4-5 WAR player for at least the next 5 years. And as it is he's 12th in the AL in fWAR and 14th in wRC+. The ceiling is that he reaches another offensive level and gains consistency on defense and puts up some 7+ WAR seasons.
Seems to me he's sold out for power a little too much this season and isn't going the opposite way as much as he did before, which he should especially be doing in Fenway. He's a great hitter as is, but I still think his approach has some room for improvement. And defensively I am still a believer: he has the ability to make great plays, he just lacks consistency, and that seems like something that can also improve with maturity. I would pretty much back up the Brinks truck for him.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 12, 2021 10:34:45 GMT -5
I think a Devers extension will be as a full-time DH, not as a 3B. That's going to affect the number a lot.
EDIT: ... which is why I don't think they do it this off-season. They've got two more years to wait and it says here he will be changing roles in that time.
You think Devers signs a contract with a team that wants him to be a DH? He so obviously loves playing defense. Dunno if he does but I do think they move him to DH before he's eligible for free agency. Nice turn at second last night but he's just not consistent enough and he's not going to improve with age.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 12, 2021 11:03:11 GMT -5
You think Devers signs a contract with a team that wants him to be a DH? He so obviously loves playing defense. Dunno if he does but I do think they move him to DH before he's eligible for free agency. Nice turn at second last night but he's just not consistent enough and he's not going to improve with age.
He's 24 years old. To say he's not going to improve defensively with any certainty I don't find to be a fair statement. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 12, 2021 11:46:33 GMT -5
You think Devers signs a contract with a team that wants him to be a DH? He so obviously loves playing defense. Dunno if he does but I do think they move him to DH before he's eligible for free agency. Nice turn at second last night but he's just not consistent enough and he's not going to improve with age.
Any particular reason for making this claim? It's certainly possible, but it seems like an odd thing to be certain about. |
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Post by kjkramer on Sept 12, 2021 12:05:06 GMT -5
My max would be 10/300 with team options. Propose that now. Of he doesnt accept it..... trade him now for a guge haul.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 12, 2021 12:10:47 GMT -5
Dunno if he does but I do think they move him to DH before he's eligible for free agency. Nice turn at second last night but he's just not consistent enough and he's not going to improve with age.
Any particular reason for making this claim? It's certainly possible, but it seems like an odd thing to be certain about. Well, he's been coached up in the Sox system for 7+ years now and he's not getting better.
He definitely shows flashes (like last night turning that DP with Xander) and has good stretches but he's still an inconsistent fielder who doesn't grade well (four below-average seasons out of five according to FG).
I love Raffy (only signed jersey I own) and I want him on the team long-term but I'm not going to pretend that he's suddenly going to become a great fielder and, as I've said in other threads, I believe that there will be a roster shake-up this winter that focuses on defense. I would be happy to see him in a role like JD's this year, DHing most of the time and filling in at 3B about 40 games a year.
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Post by notnickyorke on Sept 12, 2021 21:48:40 GMT -5
Dunno if he does but I do think they move him to DH before he's eligible for free agency. Nice turn at second last night but he's just not consistent enough and he's not going to improve with age.
He's 24 years old. To say he's not going to improve defensively with any certainty I don't find to be a fair statement. According to this, peak age for defensive value is 26. But I do think Devers defensive issues are a bit overstated, at least by the numbers. He grades out as a bit under average according to fangraphs and BR defensive values. Not great, but perfectly livable for someone with his bat. UZR thinks he is about average, but DRS thinks he is dreadful. I don't think it is crazy to project him as a slightly below average third baseman for the next 4 or 5 years. His bat more then makes up for that and if he doesn't maintain around near average, the bat plays at 1st and DH. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 12, 2021 22:48:02 GMT -5
He's 24 years old. To say he's not going to improve defensively with any certainty I don't find to be a fair statement. According to this, peak age for defensive value is 26. But I do think Devers defensive issues are a bit overstated, at least by the numbers. He grades out as a bit under average according to fangraphs and BR defensive values. Not great, but perfectly livable for someone with his bat. UZR thinks he is about average, but DRS thinks he is dreadful. I don't think it is crazy to project him as a slightly below average third baseman for the next 4 or 5 years. His bat more then makes up for that and if he doesn't maintain around near average, the bat plays at 1st and DH. I think we more or less agree, which leads me to believe he'll DH more than play the field, sooner than later, which will affect the terms of any future extension. But I don't think they'll extend him as a 3B after a huge year at the plate when they have two more years to work with and he's a risk to move to DH.
I disagree that they'll teach him to play 1B. With any luck, the 1B situation is currently working itself out before our eyes (there's also a young LH hitting 1B knocking at the door). It would be an adjustment but I would say that Raffy could more easily learn to play 2B than 1B. He's athletic (witness that DP turn last night and rumor has it that he's still only 24) and unless you think Christian Arroyo (or Jeter Downs) is the answer for the next 2-3 years, that may continue to be a position through which guys are rotated.
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Post by notnickyorke on Sept 12, 2021 23:11:40 GMT -5
I think we more or less agree, which leads me to believe he'll DH more than play the field, sooner than later, which will affect the terms of any future extension. But I don't think they'll extend him as a 3B after a huge year at the plate when they have two more years to work with and he's a risk to move to DH.
I disagree that they'll teach him to play 1B. With any luck, the 1B situation is currently working itself out before our eyes (there's also a young LH hitting 1B knocking at the door). It would be an adjustment but I would say that Raffy could more easily learn to play 2B than 1B. He's athletic (witness that DP turn last night and rumor has it that he's still only 24) and unless you think Christian Arroyo (or Jeter Downs) is the answer for the next 2-3 years, that may continue to be a position through which guys are rotated.
I don't think a hot month and a half from Dalbec and a can't miss 1st base prospect (remember lars anderson) are enough for me to feel super confident in the 1st base situation just yet, but that hope it works out great. I don't think Devers being part of the 1st base solution in the future is off the table, or the worst thing to have as an option. Dalbec still strikes me as a good part time player in the long term shifting between 3rd, 1st, and DH as a complement to the lefties Devers and Casas. Additionally, I see Kiki shifting between 2nd an CF with Arroyo and Durran, with whoever is swinging the best bat/ has the best matchup that day. I guess I see them copying the dodgers somewhat by using bench players that are better then what a bench player is traditionally thought of being. That is what has made them so good the last couple years. Its allowed them to take chances on a bunch of castoff players (Turner, Muncy, Taylor) and setting them up to succeed by placing them in their best matchups. You won't see as many (but still some) superstars getting 650+ plate appearances, but a deeper, healthier, better rested team with more players getting 400+ plate appearances. Bloom might have already found his 1st castoff success in arroyo if he can stay healthy. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 13, 2021 8:54:19 GMT -5
As great as Raffy has been I think he is a bit like the ERod question. Their are some questions about his LT value based on body type, defense and whether he takes the next step to elite from great. He has his moments that are breathe taking with how he can hit and then he is only batting 275 for the season when it seems like he should be over 300. History is full of players who had their best seasons before hitting 25 so as much as we would like to think there is another level for him to reach this might be it. Which is great, don't get me wrong he is a top 10 hitter in the AL at the least. Would 10 300 be enough and would it be a good LT value?
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Post by patford on Sept 13, 2021 10:51:11 GMT -5
As great as Raffy has been I think he is a bit like the ERod question. Their are some questions about his LT value based on body type, defense and whether he takes the next step to elite from great. He has his moments that are breathe taking with how he can hit and then he is only batting 275 for the season when it seems like he should be over 300. History is full of players who had their best seasons before hitting 25 so as much as we would like to think there is another level for him to reach this might be it. Which is great, don't get me wrong he is a top 10 hitter in the AL at the least. Would 10 300 be enough and would it be a good LT value? After 2019 it looked like a continuous upward "sky's the limit" path. He hit well over .300 with over 30 HR. 2020 was such a screwy year I didn't pay any mind to it. This year was a big step back with his BA dropping by 40 points from 2019. This whole year I kept thinking he would heat up but it never happened. It's been very discouraging. |
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Post by dangermike on Sept 13, 2021 11:00:13 GMT -5
As great as Raffy has been I think he is a bit like the ERod question. Their are some questions about his LT value based on body type, defense and whether he takes the next step to elite from great. He has his moments that are breathe taking with how he can hit and then he is only batting 275 for the season when it seems like he should be over 300. History is full of players who had their best seasons before hitting 25 so as much as we would like to think there is another level for him to reach this might be it. Which is great, don't get me wrong he is a top 10 hitter in the AL at the least. Would 10 300 be enough and would it be a good LT value? After 2019 it looked like a continuous upward "sky's the limit" path. He hit well over .300 with over 30 HR. 2020 was such a screwy year I didn't pay any mind to it. This year was a big step back with his BA dropping by 40 points from 2019. This whole year I kept thinking he would heat up but it never happened. It's been very discouraging. eh his babip is 20-30 pts lower than the last 2 years, which at least passes the eyetest from me - hes been robbed of a ton of hits in the games ive seen |
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Post by taiwansox on Sept 13, 2021 11:05:49 GMT -5
The biggest worry around Xander and Devers is that they play premium defensive positions with plus bats, but their defensive aging curve looks pretty bleak. For Devers it’s plus range, but lots of mistakes, so if his range diminishes, he could become a significant defensive liability. For Xander, he’s already a defensive liability with his limited range at short. Our infield defense is really handcuffed, so the only remedy is to get rid of one or both of them, which really sucks.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2021 11:14:04 GMT -5
We're worried about batting average rather than xwOBA? (highest xwOBA of career this year) Walk rate is way up and so is his .ISO. Even with a much lower BABIP, his wRC+ is one point off his career high. And then there is tons of talk about errors as if that is the only way to judge defense since above average plays do not get counted whatsoever if you're only worried about errors.
Maybe they should just let him go to the Yankees like Wade Boggs after one bad batting average season.
On the flip side, he still gets lots of ribbies so that should offset his .273 batting average! Of course this talk is after a cold streak, so I'm sure the same people are ready to back the dump truck of cash up to his house once he goes on a tear again.
This is a Dave O'Brien take.
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