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What does a Devers Extension look like?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 14, 2021 16:41:31 GMT -5
Devers is inconsistent, as measured by OAA he was either the worst or one of the worst 3B defenders in the game in April, May, and August, but he was league average in June and July. The key is getting him to be June/July Devers most of the time.
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Post by jbsox on Sept 14, 2021 16:54:52 GMT -5
Manfred, I think it's likely they bring one of them back, that they sign either X or Devers with my guess that they come to some sort of large raise but not top of the market contract extension with Bogaerts. I think this because I think he's more likely wanting to be a lifelong Red Sox and he has the defensive flexibility to move off of SS to other positions as he ages with 3b most likely but the possibility of LF or 2b if necessary. On the off chance it's neither, they could splurge on a superstar outfielder or a superstar pitcher. Doesn't have to be a 3b necessarily. More likely they'd split their expenditures to improve the pitching and outfield or catching. I figure by then that's where the needs are most likely to be. I know you don't want to rely on guys who are 18 right now. I get it, but I can see Yorke hitting like Pedroia and being pretty successful sooner than later. Can't ignore the Cory Seager comparisons that Mayer has. Both Pedroia and Seager were rookies of the year so it's not necessarily a given they will struggle upon their promotion. That said, I think that's a strawman argument because it's not like the Sox FO is going to say, we got Mayer and Yorke and Casas for 3/4 of the infield, we need no other strong offensive components. They're going to get either a superstar whether it's X or Devers or somebody they like outside the organization or they'll split their money on above average/occasional all-star caliber players. I’m not bashing the 18-year olds. They look great. But it’ll be time. I agree with this, but it returns to the question: who? Put it this way: if you could sign *anyone* to a mega contract right now of 10-12 years, who would it be? I mean, Soto, Vlad… Tatis? Anyway… the point is, not the elite guys like Trout, for example. So who would you target over Devers? I get that you can spread the money, but even then it isn’t always simple. FAs tend to get paid for the past, and, as I said, you often have to eat later years. I get the case for not resigning X. I’m not on that side, but I get it. But with Devers, barring demands that simply blow up all economy, he has to be retained. It is a must. Thinking about this more Devers is on his way to bashing 35 plus homers in his age 24 season. With a lengthy extension I don’t think we would see a decline in his offense for a long time. I think he could be adequate defensively at 3B for roughly another 5 years. The overall benefit of his offense at 3B is more than worth it IMO. If he happens to become a DH only with similar or slight decline in offense going into his 30s it’s probably an overpay but not an albatross contract as long as the contract isn’t absurd. I think AAV of around 30 mil is doable for both sides, and with inflation in 5 plus years a DH only player with his offensive value might be viewed as somewhat close or similar to JD’s output now with his contract. Also thinking about it more I think they could sign both Xander and Devers to long term deals. Xander has the flexibility of moving off to other positions 3B, 2B, LF. Let’s say both are signed with their AAV around 30 mil. That would be a combined 35 mil in raises from what they make now, however that’s almost offset with the dead money coming off the books 30 mil plus with Price, Pedroia, Benintendi etc contracts within 2 years. It would be really helpful if the depth of our system helps fills in the holes where needed, but I don’t think we’ll be financially held back for other moves. With JD, Eovaldi, Richards, Ottavino, K Hernandez, Erod, Perez, Scherber coming off the books within 2 years that’s roughly pushing 80 million that could go into extensions for any of them or reinvested elsewhere. We also have Sale’s contract declining from 30 mil now to 20 mil in 2025 to give us more wiggle room. And if we happen to go over the tax in the near future, that’s even more wiggle room we have. Now, if either of them want top end of the max they can get, and determined to get to free agency as Betts wanted then by all means explore what you can get for them.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 14, 2021 19:12:41 GMT -5
A devers extension looks like an absolute necessity!
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 15, 2021 5:39:50 GMT -5
My question is this: if you don’t resign X and/or Devers, with an aging JDM, where are you? No one in the minors projects to match those three at their best (even Casas). So now you need to look outside to make up a *lot* of offense. Who is that? How much is it? Even if you assume Yorke and Mayer are an all star combo, that could easily be 4-5 years from now. I do not want to be in a rebuild that waits on 18-year olds. This is a rather pessimistic take IMO. To say that none of the big 3 in the minors project to hit as well as the big 3 on the Sox is based on what, your projections? Yorke has put up as strong a stat line as anybody in the Sox minors that I have ever seen so to not believe he could be that good is wrong IMO. Their is really no reason to believe at this point that all 3 of those guys will be well above average hitters for the Sox. And I expect all three will be in Boston in 3 years. Casas next yr, Yorke the yr after and then Mayer in 24. The Sox won't really be in a rebuild at all. I guess it seems like I am against signing Raffy or something because I bring up his D but I am not really, he is great obviously. I am just thinking out loud about what Bloom needs to consider when building LT. And Boggy at 30M and Raffy at 35M for 10 years might be the right move and they could validate those contracts but their is also the chance that they don't. And D is a big reason that those contracts could become a problem when they are 31+. Xander is definitely going to move off of SS, maybe Raffy can stay at 3rd but it is a question.
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 15, 2021 5:46:03 GMT -5
I started to reply to this yesterday and decided not to. Then an error last night cost the Sox the game, 7th inning Schwarber. Your comment about not moving is comical if not irritating. Errors matter, defense matters and yes Bloom needs to and will take that into consideration when thinking about who he gives a 35 million/yr contract offer to. Devers leads the league in errors for 3rd basemen every year and you want to talk about the great plays he makes. All third basemen make great plays and the good ones make even more, it's the hot corner great plays are bound to happen and I don't see Devers making some crazy amount of great ones. Bottom line is the teams D has been bad this season and that needs to be addressed moving forward, it is not something that Bloom will overlook. Over the last 3 seasons, Devers has been exactly an average 3B according to statcast. Identical to Manny Machado. You cannot only look at errors. OK I will stop, but I want him to be more consistent. That is where the problem lies, he loses focus or something because he does make some great plays and then he boots some easy ones or air mails a throw too often. Which leads me to think he can still improve. Would you be in favor of a 10 yr 350 million dollar contract? That is probably what it is going to cost right? Mookie was a better player and they didn't go there with him.
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Post by manfred on Sept 15, 2021 9:21:12 GMT -5
My question is this: if you don’t resign X and/or Devers, with an aging JDM, where are you? No one in the minors projects to match those three at their best (even Casas). So now you need to look outside to make up a *lot* of offense. Who is that? How much is it? Even if you assume Yorke and Mayer are an all star combo, that could easily be 4-5 years from now. I do not want to be in a rebuild that waits on 18-year olds. This is a rather pessimistic take IMO. To say that none of the big 3 in the minors project to hit as well as the big 3 on the Sox is based on what, your projections? Yorke has put up as strong a stat line as anybody in the Sox minors that I have ever seen so to not believe he could be that good is wrong IMO. Their is really no reason to believe at this point that all 3 of those guys will be well above average hitters for the Sox. And I expect all three will be in Boston in 3 years. Casas next yr, Yorke the yr after and then Mayer in 24. The Sox won't really be in a rebuild at all. I guess it seems like I am against signing Raffy or something because I bring up his D but I am not really, he is great obviously. I am just thinking out loud about what Bloom needs to consider when building LT. And Boggy at 30M and Raffy at 35M for 10 years might be the right move and they could validate those contracts but their is also the chance that they don't. And D is a big reason that those contracts could become a problem when they are 31+. Xander is definitely going to move off of SS, maybe Raffy can stay at 3rd but it is a question. Wait… X and Devers are on HOF paces. JDM was an elite DH. I don’t think it is pessimistic to say we probably aren’t developing HOFers at the moment. There is a difference between likelihood and pessimism. But the idea that 2 teenagers and a 21-one-year are a big factor in an extension for a 25-year elite player seems kind of crazy.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 15, 2021 9:30:14 GMT -5
My question is this: if you don’t resign X and/or Devers, with an aging JDM, where are you? No one in the minors projects to match those three at their best (even Casas). So now you need to look outside to make up a *lot* of offense. Who is that? How much is it? Even if you assume Yorke and Mayer are an all star combo, that could easily be 4-5 years from now. I do not want to be in a rebuild that waits on 18-year olds. This is a rather pessimistic take IMO. To say that none of the big 3 in the minors project to hit as well as the big 3 on the Sox is based on what, your projections? Yorke has put up as strong a stat line as anybody in the Sox minors that I have ever seen so to not believe he could be that good is wrong IMO. Their is really no reason to believe at this point that all 3 of those guys will be well above average hitters for the Sox. And I expect all three will be in Boston in 3 years. Casas next yr, Yorke the yr after and then Mayer in 24. The Sox won't really be in a rebuild at all. I guess it seems like I am against signing Raffy or something because I bring up his D but I am not really, he is great obviously. I am just thinking out loud about what Bloom needs to consider when building LT. And Boggy at 30M and Raffy at 35M for 10 years might be the right move and they could validate those contracts but their is also the chance that they don't. And D is a big reason that those contracts could become a problem when they are 31+. Xander is definitely going to move off of SS, maybe Raffy can stay at 3rd but it is a question. I'm not sure it's a pessimistic take to think it's not a given that any of those three prospects reach the levels of X and Rafi at the plate which is what top 5 production at their position? Not saying it's impossible either but I have a hard time looking at any prospect and saying they'll be top 5 hitters at their positions.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 15, 2021 9:47:24 GMT -5
This is a rather pessimistic take IMO. To say that none of the big 3 in the minors project to hit as well as the big 3 on the Sox is based on what, your projections? Yorke has put up as strong a stat line as anybody in the Sox minors that I have ever seen so to not believe he could be that good is wrong IMO. Their is really no reason to believe at this point that all 3 of those guys will be well above average hitters for the Sox. And I expect all three will be in Boston in 3 years. Casas next yr, Yorke the yr after and then Mayer in 24. The Sox won't really be in a rebuild at all. I guess it seems like I am against signing Raffy or something because I bring up his D but I am not really, he is great obviously. I am just thinking out loud about what Bloom needs to consider when building LT. And Boggy at 30M and Raffy at 35M for 10 years might be the right move and they could validate those contracts but their is also the chance that they don't. And D is a big reason that those contracts could become a problem when they are 31+. Xander is definitely going to move off of SS, maybe Raffy can stay at 3rd but it is a question. Wait… X and Devers are on HOF paces. JDM was an elite DH. I don’t think it is pessimistic to say we probably aren’t developing HOFers at the moment. There is a difference between likelihood and pessimism. But the idea that 2 teenagers and a 21-one-year are a big factor in an extension for a 25-year elite player seems kind of crazy. You have to keep in mind that once upon a time that Devers was a 18 year old kid, one that was valuable enough that the Sox didn't want to include him in a deal for another potential HOFer in Chris Sale and would have walked away from the deal had the ChiSox demanded he been part of the trade. Keep in mind a lot of players are on HOF paces and then fall off. I mean in 2003 would you have though that Nomar doesn't get into the HOF? How about Mo Vaughn in 1998? Freddy Lynn in 1979?
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Post by incandenza on Sept 15, 2021 10:25:25 GMT -5
Wait… X and Devers are on HOF paces. JDM was an elite DH. I don’t think it is pessimistic to say we probably aren’t developing HOFers at the moment. There is a difference between likelihood and pessimism. But the idea that 2 teenagers and a 21-one-year are a big factor in an extension for a 25-year elite player seems kind of crazy. You have to keep in mind that once upon a time that Devers was a 18 year old kid, one that was valuable enough that the Sox didn't want to include him in a deal for another potential HOFer in Chris Sale and would have walked away from the deal had the ChiSox demanded he been part of the trade. Keep in mind a lot of players are on HOF paces and then fall off. I mean in 2003 would you have though that Nomar doesn't get into the HOF? How about Mo Vaughn in 1998? Freddy Lynn in 1979? It is supposed to be an argument against manfred when you cite Nomar, Vaughn, and Lynn? What are the odds that Mayer, Casas, and Yorke turn into guys of that caliber? Realistically, I think we can hope that one of the three turns into that sort of perennial all-star, one of them makes it as an everyday regular, and one of them is useful in a trade somewhere down the line.
Xander was a top-2 prospect in all of baseball. I think Devers made it to the top 20 or so? Casas is approaching that level; the other guys aren't there yet. These are talents that don't grow on trees!
I basically agree with manfred, but I think the case to make against us is that the ruthlessly efficient unsentimental Ivy League meritocrat way to build the roster is to find the guys who have the best fit for the team and who are systematically undervalued by other organizations. That might be Devers, but odds are it isn't. So if you're going to spend $300 million on a free agent, sure, it could be the guy who happened to grow up with the team, but it's more likely to be someone with the better aging projection or defensive metrics or swing mechanics or whatever else goes into the magic algorithms that Bloom uses to determine the best possible way not to squander a third of a billion dollars.
(The above paragraph, by the way, is why I will be surprised if Bogaerts is around after 2022. I am still hopeful that Devers can be signed to an extension though - the thing going for us there is that there still should be a discount for the team in doing so before he hits free agency.)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 15, 2021 10:41:39 GMT -5
You have to keep in mind that once upon a time that Devers was a 18 year old kid, one that was valuable enough that the Sox didn't want to include him in a deal for another potential HOFer in Chris Sale and would have walked away from the deal had the ChiSox demanded he been part of the trade. Keep in mind a lot of players are on HOF paces and then fall off. I mean in 2003 would you have though that Nomar doesn't get into the HOF? How about Mo Vaughn in 1998? Freddy Lynn in 1979? It is supposed to be an argument against manfred when you cite Nomar, Vaughn, and Lynn? What are the odds that Mayer, Casas, and Yorke turn into guys of that caliber? Realistically, I think we can hope that one of the three turns into that sort of perennial all-star, one of them makes it as an everyday regular, and one of them is useful in a trade somewhere down the line. Xander was a top-2 prospect in all of baseball. I think Devers made it to the top 20 or so? Casas is approaching that level; the other guys aren't there yet. These are talents that don't grow on trees! I basically agree with manfred, but I think the case to make against us is that the ruthlessly efficient unsentimental Ivy League meritocrat way to build the roster is to find the guys who have the best fit for the team and who are systematically undervalued by other organizations. That might be Devers, but odds are it isn't. So if you're going to spend $300 million on a free agent, sure, it could be the guy who happened to grow up with the team, but it's more likely to be someone with the better aging projection or defensive metrics or swing mechanics or whatever else goes into the magic algorithms that Bloom uses to determine the best possible way not to squander a third of a billion dollars. (The above paragraph, by the way, is why I will be surprised if Bogaerts is around after 2022. I am still hopeful that Devers can be signed to an extension though - the thing going for us there is that there still should be a discount for the team in doing so before he hits free agency.)
The argument I'm making is that young prospects, especially ones with pedigree and performing extremely well, have a lot of value and can turn into superstars just like Devers did. The comparisons you can hang on Casas if all goes perfect is Freddy Freeman. With Yorke it's Pedroia on offense. With Marcelo Mayer it's Corey Seager. Understand I'm not saying that these three players turn into Freeman, Pedroia, and Seager. But they have the upside of these guys and these guys are stars, stars that would normally cost a ton in free agency. Devers had a high ceiling. He's reached most of it. Manfred is saying that Devers and X are on a HOF track. If they keep doing what they're doing for another 10 - 12 years, then yeah, they are. But Lynn, Nomar, and Vaughn were also on a HOF track. Sometimes those tracks get derailed in the majors, not just the transition from the minors to the majors. So my point is that it's possible that Casas, Yorke, and Mayer or some combo turn into what Devers and X are right now, but that's now, not what happens in the next 8 - 10 years when you're gambling 30 million on a player as they age and sometimes fall off of that HOF track they were headed on. I mean, didn't the Sox dodge a bullet when they didn't wind up extending Nomar? Maybe they did or maybe they didn't when Vaughn and Lynn didn't get extended. Would Vaughn still have gotten injured tripping down the dugout stairs had he stayed in Boston rather then what happened in Anaheim? Would Lynn have remained on a HOF trajectory had he stayed at Fenway rather than going away from a ballpark that suppressed him? The last two questions are only guesses, but my point is that sometimes you can say a player is on a HOF path, you throw a bunch of money at the player and then something happens where the player doesn't continue on a HOF path and you've spent all that money on the player. Meanwhile you have young players coming up, becoming stars and then 5 years later worry the fanbase that they'll bolt and can't be replaced - that you must shell out $350 million or whatever the going cost is then. I'm not saying don't sign X or don't extend Devers. I'm just saying there is a huge risk, one that could hamstring a team for quite awhile if it doesn't work out.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 15, 2021 11:09:32 GMT -5
It is supposed to be an argument against manfred when you cite Nomar, Vaughn, and Lynn? What are the odds that Mayer, Casas, and Yorke turn into guys of that caliber? Realistically, I think we can hope that one of the three turns into that sort of perennial all-star, one of them makes it as an everyday regular, and one of them is useful in a trade somewhere down the line. Xander was a top-2 prospect in all of baseball. I think Devers made it to the top 20 or so? Casas is approaching that level; the other guys aren't there yet. These are talents that don't grow on trees! I basically agree with manfred, but I think the case to make against us is that the ruthlessly efficient unsentimental Ivy League meritocrat way to build the roster is to find the guys who have the best fit for the team and who are systematically undervalued by other organizations. That might be Devers, but odds are it isn't. So if you're going to spend $300 million on a free agent, sure, it could be the guy who happened to grow up with the team, but it's more likely to be someone with the better aging projection or defensive metrics or swing mechanics or whatever else goes into the magic algorithms that Bloom uses to determine the best possible way not to squander a third of a billion dollars. (The above paragraph, by the way, is why I will be surprised if Bogaerts is around after 2022. I am still hopeful that Devers can be signed to an extension though - the thing going for us there is that there still should be a discount for the team in doing so before he hits free agency.)
The argument I'm making is that young prospects, especially ones with pedigree and performing extremely well, have a lot of value and can turn into superstars just like Devers did. The comparisons you can hang on Casas if all goes perfect is Freddy Freeman. With Yorke it's Pedroia on offense. With Marcelo Mayer it's Corey Seager. Understand I'm not saying that these three players turn into Freeman, Pedroia, and Seager. But they have the upside of these guys and these guys are stars, stars that would normally cost a ton in free agency. Devers had a high ceiling. He's reached most of it. Manfred is saying that Devers and X are on a HOF track. If they keep doing what they're doing for another 10 - 12 years, then yeah, they are. But Lynn, Nomar, and Vaughn were also on a HOF track. Sometimes those tracks get derailed in the majors, not just the transition from the minors to the majors. So my point is that it's possible that Casas, Yorke, and Mayer or some combo turn into what Devers and X are right now, but that's now, not what happens in the next 8 - 10 years when you're gambling 30 million on a player as they age and sometimes fall off of that HOF track they were headed on. Right, and there's some possibility that Casas, Yorke, and Mayer turn into Bonds, Mays, and Ruth. But what is most likely?
I'd look at it this way: ca. 2013 the Red Sox had a prospect cohort including Betts, Bogaerts, and JBJ. They were collectively more highly ranked as a group than Casas/Yorke/Mayer, and it is unlikely that the latter three end up offering as much value as the former.
Ca. 2017 the Red Sox had a prospect cohort including Devers, Benintendi, and Groome. I think they were collectively ranked higher than the current top 3. Maybe that's a reasonable hope for what Casas/Yorke/Mayer turn into? (With Groome still TBD!)
Here's what I will say, though: those are two different cohorts! So maybe they just need Casas to turn into Devers and then wait for some 2023 IFA signing to turn into Bogaerts...
In any event, they'll have to spend $200 million/year somehow, and I'd rather it be on the baby-faced rocket launcher who is a wildly entertaining presence in the batter's box and has been with the org since day one than some mercenary outcast from Houston or Atlanta or whatever.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 15, 2021 11:20:00 GMT -5
The argument I'm making is that young prospects, especially ones with pedigree and performing extremely well, have a lot of value and can turn into superstars just like Devers did. The comparisons you can hang on Casas if all goes perfect is Freddy Freeman. With Yorke it's Pedroia on offense. With Marcelo Mayer it's Corey Seager. Understand I'm not saying that these three players turn into Freeman, Pedroia, and Seager. But they have the upside of these guys and these guys are stars, stars that would normally cost a ton in free agency. Devers had a high ceiling. He's reached most of it. Manfred is saying that Devers and X are on a HOF track. If they keep doing what they're doing for another 10 - 12 years, then yeah, they are. But Lynn, Nomar, and Vaughn were also on a HOF track. Sometimes those tracks get derailed in the majors, not just the transition from the minors to the majors. So my point is that it's possible that Casas, Yorke, and Mayer or some combo turn into what Devers and X are right now, but that's now, not what happens in the next 8 - 10 years when you're gambling 30 million on a player as they age and sometimes fall off of that HOF track they were headed on. Right, and there's some possibility that Casas, Yorke, and Mayer turn into Bonds, Mays, and Ruth. But what is most likely? I'd look at it this way: ca. 2013 the Red Sox had a prospect cohort including Betts, Bogaerts, and JBJ. They were collectively more highly ranked as a group than Casas/Yorke/Mayer, and it is unlikely that the latter three end up offering as much value as the former. Ca. 2017 the Red Sox had a prospect cohort including Devers, Benintendi, and Groome. I think they were collectively ranked higher than the current top 3. Maybe that's a reasonable hope for what Casas/Yorke/Mayer turn into? (With Groome still TBD!) Here's what I will say, though: those are two different cohorts! So maybe they just need Casas to turn into Devers and then wait for some 2023 IFA signing to turn into Bogaerts... In any event, they'll have to spend $200 million/year somehow, and I'd rather it be on the baby-faced rocket launcher who is a wildly entertaining presence in the batter's box and has been with the org since day one than some mercenary outcast from Houston or Atlanta or whatever.
I guess I'm just really high on Casas, Yorke, and Mayer, although admittedly radiohix is higher on Yorke than even his own mother. Does that mean that one of them winds up what Betts was or X? I think JBJ's value can be approximated by 1 of the 3 without hesitation, although the value will more likely come from offense than defense. I also know Yorke and Casas didn't have the pedigree that Mayer has (picked by many to be 1-1 in the draft), but then again Betts didn't have the pedigree either, or at least it wasn't apparent on the first day of the draft. But the main point shouldn't be whether this crop of prospects is as good as previous crops, but more along the line of what is the risk of shelling out 350 million for Devers or 250 - 300 million for X versus not doing so? And if you're giving out big $, whose the better risk? I generally agree with keeping your own free agents by I would be remiss if I didn't say that two of the best free agent investments were outsiders such as a mercenary named Manny, a trade and extend for a guy named Pedro, and I'd say the Sox did quite well with JDM as well, but I still agree with your overall point. If they're going to spend I'd like it to be one of X or Devers. I highly doubt they sign both and I think you can make a lot of arguments why they shouldn't and you can even do that on an individual basis. Again, they can always sign a "mercenary" or simply spread the money around. Because normally the more $ you tie up in 1 player the less you have to upgrade other positions.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 15, 2021 11:32:11 GMT -5
Right, and there's some possibility that Casas, Yorke, and Mayer turn into Bonds, Mays, and Ruth. But what is most likely? I'd look at it this way: ca. 2013 the Red Sox had a prospect cohort including Betts, Bogaerts, and JBJ. They were collectively more highly ranked as a group than Casas/Yorke/Mayer, and it is unlikely that the latter three end up offering as much value as the former. Ca. 2017 the Red Sox had a prospect cohort including Devers, Benintendi, and Groome. I think they were collectively ranked higher than the current top 3. Maybe that's a reasonable hope for what Casas/Yorke/Mayer turn into? (With Groome still TBD!) Here's what I will say, though: those are two different cohorts! So maybe they just need Casas to turn into Devers and then wait for some 2023 IFA signing to turn into Bogaerts... In any event, they'll have to spend $200 million/year somehow, and I'd rather it be on the baby-faced rocket launcher who is a wildly entertaining presence in the batter's box and has been with the org since day one than some mercenary outcast from Houston or Atlanta or whatever.
I guess I'm just really high on Casas, Yorke, and Mayer, although admittedly radiohix is higher than Yorke than even his own mother. Does that mean that one of them winds up what Betts was or X? I think JBJ's value can be approximated by 1 of the 3 without hesitation, although the value will more likely come from offense than defense. I also know Yorke and Casas didn't have the pedigree that Mayer has (picked by many to be 1-1 in the draft), but then again Betts didn't have the pedigree either, or at least it wasn't apparent on the first day of the draft. But the main point shouldn't be whether this crop of prospects is as good as previous crops, but more along the line of what is the risk of shelling out 350 million for Devers or 250 - 300 million for X versus not doing so? And if you're giving out big $, whose the better risk? I generally agree with keeping your own free agents by I would be remiss if I didn't say that two of the best free agent investments were outsiders such as a mercenary named Manny, a trade and extend for a guy named Pedro, and I'd say the Sox did quite well with JDM as well, but I still agree with your overall point. If they're going to spend I'd like it to be one of X or Devers. I highly doubt they sign both and I think you can make a lot of arguments why they shouldn't and you can even do that on an individual basis. Again, they can always sign a "mercenary" or simply spread the money around. Because normally the more $ you tie up in 1 player the less you have to upgrade other positions. Another thought I just had. When you have prospects like Casas, Mayer and Yorke it makes it easier for a team to stomach paying guys like X and Rafi those 30+ aav deals because theoretically you have those cheap young studs coming up to provide savings and offset. There's obviously merits to both sides of spending that type of money on guys like Rafi and X or spreading that money around. I personally am in the camp of sign one or both of Rafi or X and take that risk rather than let them go and spread that money out to what are likely to be lesser players. But I do understand both sides of the coin so to speak.
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Post by jdb on Sept 15, 2021 12:02:33 GMT -5
I’d hate the thought of not signing Devers or Xander but watching these last few weeks I could definitely see some sort of positional shake up to improve the team D. I’d be surprised if both are signed when control ends.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,802
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Post by mobaz on Sept 15, 2021 13:04:33 GMT -5
I’d hate the thought of not signing Devers or Xander but watching these last few weeks I could definitely see some sort of positional shake up to improve the team D. I’d be surprised if both are signed when control ends. I'd love them both to stay but just don't see how you pay market value of SS/3B for both. I hate losing home grown guys. Not trying to revisit this but it makes Mookie sting a little harsher since his D will buoy his value for longer. Devers HAS to come in lower than the more recent young guys, given that he's a lesser hitter than peak JDM and bigger fielder risk than most of the other big contracts. Is 8/230 (buying out arb) too little? I'd be okay with that.
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 15, 2021 16:09:20 GMT -5
I’d hate the thought of not signing Devers or Xander but watching these last few weeks I could definitely see some sort of positional shake up to improve the team D. I’d be surprised if both are signed when control ends. I'd love them both to stay but just don't see how you pay market value of SS/3B for both. I hate losing home grown guys. Not trying to revisit this but it makes Mookie sting a little harsher since his D will buoy his value for longer. Devers HAS to come in lower than the more recent young guys, given that he's a lesser hitter than peak JDM and bigger fielder risk than most of the other big contracts. Is 8/230 (buying out arb) too little? I'd be okay with that. If they could get him to sign that contract I am all in!!
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 15, 2021 17:00:03 GMT -5
This is a rather pessimistic take IMO. To say that none of the big 3 in the minors project to hit as well as the big 3 on the Sox is based on what, your projections? Yorke has put up as strong a stat line as anybody in the Sox minors that I have ever seen so to not believe he could be that good is wrong IMO. Their is really no reason to believe at this point that all 3 of those guys will be well above average hitters for the Sox. And I expect all three will be in Boston in 3 years. Casas next yr, Yorke the yr after and then Mayer in 24. The Sox won't really be in a rebuild at all. I guess it seems like I am against signing Raffy or something because I bring up his D but I am not really, he is great obviously. I am just thinking out loud about what Bloom needs to consider when building LT. And Boggy at 30M and Raffy at 35M for 10 years might be the right move and they could validate those contracts but their is also the chance that they don't. And D is a big reason that those contracts could become a problem when they are 31+. Xander is definitely going to move off of SS, maybe Raffy can stay at 3rd but it is a question. Wait… X and Devers are on HOF paces. JDM was an elite DH. I don’t think it is pessimistic to say we probably aren’t developing HOFers at the moment. There is a difference between likelihood and pessimism. But the idea that 2 teenagers and a 21-one-year are a big factor in an extension for a 25-year elite player seems kind of crazy. This is getting off track. The question is how much is it going to cost and what are the risks that go into it. If it takes 30per for X and 35per for Raffy do the Sox do it. And yes who is coming up from the farm matters but how much? Xander is going to move off SS at some point and as Chris pointed out Raffy was league average for 2 months and one of the worst for 3 months this year at 3rd. Everything matters when talking about 10 yrs and 300+ million. What will Raffy take and does he have the makeup to be elite vs great, he is great now but not elite. As far as the HOF goes, both guys would have to do what they are doing for a LONG LONG time. Between them they have been #5 for MVP once and a couple others in the teens as far as voting goes. Also they are not perennial all stars which you need quite a few of for hall consideration. The numbers they put up need to be done for a very long career to be hall worthy. I don't want to put our 2 stars down but Manny and Papi they ain't. Maybe I need to temper my optimism for the prospects but I would rather dream big, it's more fun.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 15, 2021 17:21:35 GMT -5
There's so much complaining about squanders (otherwise known as baseball), that I shudder to think about downgrading the offense in favor of the defense.
It's like sure, let's go ahead and get the gold glove versions of Xander and Devers. I guess that's Scott Rolen and Arod. Should be easy.
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Post by jmei on Sept 15, 2021 17:49:53 GMT -5
I think defense is still undervalued relative to offense in the market, and Bloom is nothing if not a value guy. But it’ll depend on how hard each guy wants to maximize his earnings. Bloom will happily pick up below-market offense (see Schwarber).
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Post by manfred on Sept 15, 2021 19:01:32 GMT -5
Wait… X and Devers are on HOF paces. JDM was an elite DH. I don’t think it is pessimistic to say we probably aren’t developing HOFers at the moment. There is a difference between likelihood and pessimism. But the idea that 2 teenagers and a 21-one-year are a big factor in an extension for a 25-year elite player seems kind of crazy. This is getting off track. The question is how much is it going to cost and what are the risks that go into it. If it takes 30per for X and 35per for Raffy do the Sox do it. And yes who is coming up from the farm matters but how much? Xander is going to move off SS at some point and as Chris pointed out Raffy was league average for 2 months and one of the worst for 3 months this year at 3rd. Everything matters when talking about 10 yrs and 300+ million. What will Raffy take and does he have the makeup to be elite vs great, he is great now but not elite. As far as the HOF goes, both guys would have to do what they are doing for a LONG LONG time. Between them they have been #5 for MVP once and a couple others in the teens as far as voting goes. Also they are not perennial all stars which you need quite a few of for hall consideration. The numbers they put up need to be done for a very long career to be hall worthy. I don't want to put our 2 stars down but Manny and Papi they ain't. Maybe I need to temper my optimism for the prospects but I would rather dream big, it's more fun. My main point was this: it is essential to consider $:WAR, sure. So obviously players can price out. But there comes a point when you need… WAR. So if you let your best players walk, you improve the ratio, but you still need to make up the gap. Where does it come from? Who do you sign?
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Post by jmei on Sept 15, 2021 19:06:03 GMT -5
If you don’t think an extension is efficient from a $/WAR perspective, you pass and sign free agents or trade for players who are. Winning with a team of mercenaries a la 2013 isn’t as fun as doing it with your homegrown guys, but it’s still a viable option.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 15, 2021 19:08:45 GMT -5
I will say that guys like Devers who is easily a 5 WAR player for the forseeable future, are worth A LOT more than 2 2.5 WAR players, just because of the scarcity of 5 WAR players.
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 15, 2021 19:09:01 GMT -5
This is getting off track. The question is how much is it going to cost and what are the risks that go into it. If it takes 30per for X and 35per for Raffy do the Sox do it. And yes who is coming up from the farm matters but how much? Xander is going to move off SS at some point and as Chris pointed out Raffy was league average for 2 months and one of the worst for 3 months this year at 3rd. Everything matters when talking about 10 yrs and 300+ million. What will Raffy take and does he have the makeup to be elite vs great, he is great now but not elite. As far as the HOF goes, both guys would have to do what they are doing for a LONG LONG time. Between them they have been #5 for MVP once and a couple others in the teens as far as voting goes. Also they are not perennial all stars which you need quite a few of for hall consideration. The numbers they put up need to be done for a very long career to be hall worthy. I don't want to put our 2 stars down but Manny and Papi they ain't. Maybe I need to temper my optimism for the prospects but I would rather dream big, it's more fun. My main point was this: it is essential to consider $:WAR, sure. So obviously players can price out. But there comes a point when you need… WAR. So if you let your best players walk, you improve the ratio, but you still need to make up the gap. Where does it come from? Who do you sign? Yes!! And I am optimistic that Bloom will find WAR either with our guys or not.
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Post by manfred on Sept 15, 2021 19:56:13 GMT -5
My main point was this: it is essential to consider $:WAR, sure. So obviously players can price out. But there comes a point when you need… WAR. So if you let your best players walk, you improve the ratio, but you still need to make up the gap. Where does it come from? Who do you sign? Yes!! And I am optimistic that Bloom will find WAR either with our guys or not. Ok. I just have never been one for “what’s behind door #2” on Let’s Make a Deal. As I said earlier, I don’t know how many guys are preferable to Devers (and available in the next 3 years). And the spread-the-production model is fine, but you can only step back at so many positions before you are, well, not as good.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 16, 2021 5:49:48 GMT -5
I am curious as to who in the Red Sox organization actually prepares the contract. I'm pretty sure most of it is a fill in the blanks Word program but when it comes to unique provisions, who does that ? Is that person part of the negotiations ?
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