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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 11:33:28 GMT -5
Maybe another way of looking at this is the Sox have more confidence in Houck and Whitlock taking the next step and being solid rotation pieces. If this was one of many other teams with lower expectations and budgets those 2 would already be penciled into the rotations right. I for one have been pushing for them to stay in the pens, maybe that isn't what the Sox have in mind. They are both 26 next season and have already proven they can get major league hitters out so maybe Chaim and crew see them as ready to be main stays in the rotation.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2021 11:42:27 GMT -5
Always fun to remember that we got E-Rod for 20 innings of Andrew Miller. They were admittedly 20 very good innings, but we got 856.2 innings of anywhere from a solid #3 to Cy Young contending pitcher for half a year of a reliever. One of the best Red Sox trades in recent memory. Thank you Dan Duquette.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2021 11:44:28 GMT -5
Maybe another way of looking at this is the Sox have more confidence in Houck and Whitlock taking the next step and being solid rotation pieces. If this was one of many other teams with lower expectations and budgets those 2 would already be penciled into the rotations right. I for one have been pushing for them to stay in the pens, maybe that isn't what the Sox have in mind. They are both 26 next season and have already proven they can get major league hitters out so maybe Chaim and crew see them as ready to be main stays in the rotation. I definitely think both are penciled into the rotation. I guess it's now Eovaldi/Sale/FA tbd/Whitlock/Houck as the starting 5. I'd guess Bloom signs Matz? Then he finds two guys in the bargain bin to replace Perez and Richards as "depth options" and Seabold and Crawford are further depth starting the season in AAA.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Nov 15, 2021 11:47:49 GMT -5
Maybe another way of looking at this is the Sox have more confidence in Houck and Whitlock taking the next step and being solid rotation pieces. If this was one of many other teams with lower expectations and budgets those 2 would already be penciled into the rotations right. I for one have been pushing for them to stay in the pens, maybe that isn't what the Sox have in mind. They are both 26 next season and have already proven they can get major league hitters out so maybe Chaim and crew see them as ready to be main stays in the rotation. I definitely think both are penciled into the rotation. I guess it's now Eovaldi/Sale/FA tbd/Whitlock/Houck as the starting 5. I'd guess Bloom signs Matz? Then he finds two guys in the bargain bin to replace Perez and Richards as "depth options" and Seabold and Crawford are further depth starting the season in AAA. Don't forget Pivetta. Could possibly open the year with Sale/Eovaldi/FA/Pivetta and Houck and Whitlock piggybacking each other as the number 5. You can't just plug them both into the rotation full time with Whitlock throwing 73 innings and Houck throwing 90. Can't expect both to put up 150+ innings that quickly.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 15, 2021 11:55:57 GMT -5
I’m good with ERod leaving. I can list all the issues this guy had. I put my faith in Bloom hands. Go get Marcus.
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Post by bosoxnation on Nov 15, 2021 11:56:56 GMT -5
Living in Vegas and being a betting man, I always check win %. As crazy as this sounds. Red Sox went 108-62 throughout his career. This man was a master of keeping us in the game. His era was not the best but he was a great asset. He will be missed!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2021 12:08:01 GMT -5
I definitely think both are penciled into the rotation. I guess it's now Eovaldi/Sale/FA tbd/Whitlock/Houck as the starting 5. I'd guess Bloom signs Matz? Then he finds two guys in the bargain bin to replace Perez and Richards as "depth options" and Seabold and Crawford are further depth starting the season in AAA. Don't forget Pivetta. Could possibly open the year with Sale/Eovaldi/FA/Pivetta and Houck and Whitlock piggybacking each other as the number 5. You can't just plug them both into the rotation full time with Whitlock throwing 73 innings and Houck throwing 90. Can't expect both to put up 150+ innings that quickly. Doh!!! You're right. Of course it's a possibility he becomes closer, but you're right. As of now: Eovaldi/Sale/Pivetta/Whitlock/Houck. Still see them getting 3 starters, one of them to "replace" E-Rod and the other two as depth options to go with Seabold and Crawford.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 15, 2021 12:09:22 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 12:15:34 GMT -5
Wow, I haaaaaate this. Hate it so much. How could they not match that offer? Even with the opt outs I would have done this deal in a heartbeat. (And the idea that the opt outs make it a no-win deal for Detroit is nonsense; per fangraphs he was worth about $30 million in both 2019 and 2021, and if he's merely that good the next two seasons and then opts out, it's a steal for Detroit.)
So now what? Sale/Eovaldi/Pivetta... They obviously need to add another free agent, if not two, because there's no way they can count on Whitlock and Houck to round out that rotation with precious little depth behind them. But who is going to be a better bet than Rodriguez? Scherzer or Verlander, but they're old as hell, and pretty risky propositions. Gausman would be fine, but isn't a proven commodity in the AL East like Rodriguez. Stroman is a terrible fit for this team (and its infield defense in particular).
Bleh. This is a big step back. Now we wait - probably for months - to see if Bloom can take two steps forward I guess.
ADD: Only $28 million guaranteed the first two years??? This keeps getting worse!
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Post by orion09 on Nov 15, 2021 12:16:18 GMT -5
Yikes, I was expecting the deal to be at least somewhat front-loaded. Even if he pitched brilliantly and opted out, in what world would you turn down 2y/28M for a number 2 starter? And the downside risk isn’t huge either… even if he only put up 6 or 7 WAR over 5 years, which I think is a safe bet unless he totally falls apart, you wouldn’t call that a huge loss.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 15, 2021 12:17:16 GMT -5
So it's 2 year/$28 million, plus the option to opt in to 3/$49 million. That option is a benefit worth something in the rough ballpark of $15 million in my estimation.
So equivalent to a vanilla 2/$43 give or take a few million. I think that's a pretty solid deal for the Tigers under the old rules, although not an insane value win.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 12:24:18 GMT -5
So it's 2 year/$28 million, plus the option to opt in to 3/$49 million. That option is a benefit worth something in the rough ballpark of $15 million in my estimation. So equivalent to a vanilla 2/$43 give or take a few million. I think that's a pretty solid deal for the Tigers under the old rules, although not an insane value win. I think it is an insane value win.
Of course, with any pitcher there's a chance their arm falls off. But absent health issues it is very hard for me to envision a future in which Rodriguez is not reliably a 2 WAR pitcher, and if he does that it's a better than fair deal. There are also a lot of futures I can envision in which he's a 3-4 or 5 WAR pitcher, in which case: insane value win for the Tigers.
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Post by orion09 on Nov 15, 2021 12:32:12 GMT -5
Just as a general point, I’m confused with the line of thinking that opt-outs are always a loss for the team. Most of the discussion I’ve seen assumes that there only two possibilities a) Player plays well, opts out, continues to play well after opt out. Team loses out on surplus value b) Player plays poorly or gets hurt, doesn’t opt out. Team is stuck with poorly valued contract
There are two other possibilities that I don’t usually see discussed, which are c) Player plays well, opts out, signs a new deal. Regresses or gets hurt with new team. d) Player plays poorly or gets hurt, doesn’t opt out. Regains form and posts surplus value over total contract
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 12:33:34 GMT -5
Honestly, I'm a little surprised he didn't just take the QO if he was willing to accept this deal. He'll be making $4 million less this season than he would've with the QO, and while he obviously gains some security he could've entered the market again next year, probably with better results under his belt and without the QO attached.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 15, 2021 12:46:28 GMT -5
Honestly, I'm a little surprised he didn't just take the QO if he was willing to accept this deal. He'll be making $4 million less this season than he would've with the QO, and while he obviously gains some security he could've entered the market again next year, probably with better results under his belt and without the QO attached. Wouldn't the myocarditis last year make him reluctant to turn down the $77M? If a satellite falls from space and hits his left shoulder he still gets $77M.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 15, 2021 12:47:25 GMT -5
Honestly, I'm a little surprised he didn't just take the QO if he was willing to accept this deal. He'll be making $4 million less this season than he would've with the QO, and while he obviously gains some security he could've entered the market again next year, probably with better results under his belt and without the QO attached. How do you figure? $4M less this season, guaranteed $14M the year after, and then can choose between 3/$49M and free agency again at age 31? There's SO much more security in that deal in exchange for entering free agency a year later than he would've with the QO.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 12:52:07 GMT -5
Honestly, I'm a little surprised he didn't just take the QO if he was willing to accept this deal. He'll be making $4 million less this season than he would've with the QO, and while he obviously gains some security he could've entered the market again next year, probably with better results under his belt and without the QO attached. Wouldn't the myocarditis last year make him reluctant to turn down the $77M? If a satellite falls from space and hits his left shoulder he still gets $77M. Quite possibly, and I, for one, would happily bank the $77 million. But also if I was Jud Fabian I would've banked the $2 million and if I was Mookie Betts I would've signed that $300 million extension. Pro athletes seem to like to bet on themselves, and as such bets go, taking the QO this season seems like a pretty good one. Even in the worst case scenario his kids are still set for life. (So to Chris' point: I get the logic, and would even agree with the reasoning; I'm just surprised in the sense that it's not what I usually expect from players.)
By the same token, it surprises me that the Red Sox were willing to offer the QO but not match this deal. I guess Bloom & Co. just didn't think Eduardo was worth that much but figured someone would pay for him and they could bank the draft pick.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 15, 2021 12:52:58 GMT -5
Can someone remind me where the comp pick falls? Seems to me the Sox are looking at a starter who may have comp pick attached. Very possible, likely even, but my first thought was that this might indicate we're going after cheaper starters, which could open the door to investing in a big offensive piece. I'm admittedly high on Erod, but it's hard to beat that value with any of the other prominent FA starters. The only weakness of that deal is the amount of years, because like any long-term deal you could be in trouble if he runs into injuries. If he stays healthy, though, that is a heck of a good value for Detroit, and as a 28 y/o starter the risk of that is probably as low as with any of the major FAs.
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Post by jmei on Nov 15, 2021 12:56:22 GMT -5
I wonder if Rodriguez did not give the Red Sox the opportunity to match this deal, whether because he was excited about working with Juan Nieves in Detroit again or because there was some ill will towards the Red Sox somehow. Hard to believe that the Red Sox couldn’t top this one.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 15, 2021 12:56:52 GMT -5
So it's 2 year/$28 million, plus the option to opt in to 3/$49 million. That option is a benefit worth something in the rough ballpark of $15 million in my estimation. So equivalent to a vanilla 2/$43 give or take a few million. I think that's a pretty solid deal for the Tigers under the old rules, although not an insane value win. I think it is an insane value win.
Of course, with any pitcher there's a chance their arm falls off. But absent health issues it is very hard for me to envision a future in which Rodriguez is not reliably a 2 WAR pitcher, and if he does that it's a better than fair deal. There are also a lot of futures I can envision in which he's a 3-4 or 5 WAR pitcher, in which case: insane value win for the Tigers.
That's a pretty big caveat, though. I think the way these deals work is that the team wins big as long as there are no serious arm issues, and then the team starts losing even bigger once there are serious arm issues.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 15, 2021 12:57:29 GMT -5
Well, this sucks. Setting the money aside, the Sox are now a starter down. I guess if you factor Whitlock as a starter, they are even? But Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock is a high risk/high reward staff. I’d love to find out this money is getting directed at Scherzer or Verlander. I was wondering the same thing, but I still have trouble seeing Bloom, who's not willing to spend $16 million on E-Rod at his age 28 season, suddenly be willing to spend big $ on a 38 year old Scherzer who was injured toward the very end of last season or Verlander who is 39 and coming off TJS (and assuming that Bloom would be alright with losing a draft pick). I can see him signing Matz, but the options of who's more likely to be better than E-Rod is kind of limited, no? Maybe he signs one of the Giants pitchers? I guess I just don't see how they're worth spending more on than what bringing back E-Rod would have cost. I was prepared for the thought that E-Rod signs for 100 million and the bidding gets too high and they walk away. I wasn't prepared for him to leave for a 77 - 80 milllion contract that seems quite reasonable. I'm starting to get curious if they're looking to spend on the offensive side of the ball instead, since guys like Correa have that QO attached too.
I'm also curious if they're higher on Rodon than Erod. Maybe they figure he'd be a similar expense, has a good chance to outperform Erod, and they'd net a comp pick by signing him instead? Certainly no need to give up comp picks just because you have a few, although it is also easier to stomach.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Nov 15, 2021 13:03:24 GMT -5
E-Rod will thrive in that spacious ballpark. I’m really pissed they didn’t top that deal.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 13:15:24 GMT -5
I think it is an insane value win.
Of course, with any pitcher there's a chance their arm falls off. But absent health issues it is very hard for me to envision a future in which Rodriguez is not reliably a 2 WAR pitcher, and if he does that it's a better than fair deal. There are also a lot of futures I can envision in which he's a 3-4 or 5 WAR pitcher, in which case: insane value win for the Tigers.
That's a pretty big caveat, though. I think the way these deals work is that the team wins big as long as there are no serious arm issues, and then the team starts losing even bigger once there are serious arm issues. Yeah, for sure it's a big caveat. And maybe I'm just off on what the starting pitcher market is. But I will be surprised if Gausman or Stroman sign for this little and I'd prefer Rodriguez to either of them in a vacuum. Gausman is close enough that if the Red Sox got him for basically what Rodriguez got then I'll call that even-steven (in fact, score one for Bloom in that case, for picking up the draft pick in the bargain); I just don't expect him to come that cheap.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 15, 2021 13:22:14 GMT -5
Maybe another way of looking at this is the Sox have more confidence in Houck and Whitlock taking the next step and being solid rotation pieces. If this was one of many other teams with lower expectations and budgets those 2 would already be penciled into the rotations right. I for one have been pushing for them to stay in the pens, maybe that isn't what the Sox have in mind. They are both 26 next season and have already proven they can get major league hitters out so maybe Chaim and crew see them as ready to be main stays in the rotation. I definitely think both are penciled into the rotation. I guess it's now Eovaldi/Sale/FA tbd/Whitlock/Houck as the starting 5. I'd guess Bloom signs Matz? Then he finds two guys in the bargain bin to replace Perez and Richards as "depth options" and Seabold and Crawford are further depth starting the season in AAA. 2 front end guys in Sale and Eovaldi for next year, it would have been equivalent of paying a mid-back end guy 18m+ long term, which isn't a good idea. More along thought lines of signing/trading for another SP if they go that way, or moving Houck/Whitlock into the rotation and attempting to sign Eovaldi, who has better "stuff" all the way around to a 3-4y extension, which could probably be done in the same 18-20m area. Been onboard the Matz train as for probable fairly reasonable FA's this year, like was on the Taijuan Walker one for possible undervalued guys last year.
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Post by vokuhila on Nov 15, 2021 13:39:46 GMT -5
I wonder if Rodriguez did not give the Red Sox the opportunity to match this deal, whether because he was excited about working with Juan Nieves in Detroit again or because there was some ill will towards the Red Sox somehow. Hard to believe that the Red Sox couldn’t top this one. FWIW this reads more like the RS didn't want to commit.
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