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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 15, 2021 13:41:51 GMT -5
I wonder if Rodriguez did not give the Red Sox the opportunity to match this deal, whether because he was excited about working with Juan Nieves in Detroit again or because there was some ill will towards the Red Sox somehow. Hard to believe that the Red Sox couldn’t top this one. Yeah I think people here are being super, super irrational making the assumption that Bloom wasn't willing to match this and not even considering the fact that Rodriguez just straight up might've wanted to leave. With the limited information we have (which, unlike many here, I actually know how to admit) this is about the exact line of indifference for me. I would've been fine giving E-Rod this contract, but it's also not such a steal that I'm upset the Sox didn't land him for it. Sucks to lose a quality starter, but I don't really see why so many people are up in arms about this.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 15, 2021 13:43:54 GMT -5
I wonder if Rodriguez did not give the Red Sox the opportunity to match this deal, whether because he was excited about working with Juan Nieves in Detroit again or because there was some ill will towards the Red Sox somehow. Hard to believe that the Red Sox couldn’t top this one. FWIW this reads more like the RS didn't want to commit. It really doesn't, you're just reading it that way. Of course the sides would be far off mid-season, the Sox would be looking to secure guys to team friendly deals like (we thought) the Barnes contract was, and the player side is going to be more willing to shoot high because they know they're going to be able to test an open market. That's basically a non-story. And then there's literally nothing to take from the rest of the tweet because the whole point of it was noting uncertainty.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2021 13:44:13 GMT -5
I think E-Rod will do well in that bigger ballpark. I think the Tigers made themselves a great deal and I think they will give the Yankees a run for their money on signing Correa. Perhaps the Yankees wind up with Seager instead and Detroit does indeed snag Correa, but their E-Rod acquisition, the Barnhart trade, tells me that the Tigers intend on being contenders for the ALC division title. The division is rather weak, so it makes sense.
As for the Sox, maybe Bloom figures that he can get as much if not more out of somebody like Carlos Rodon as he can E-Rod and can net the extra draft pick in the process? I was looking at Rodon's season which was fantastic, but normally he's been a decent pitcher, but this season is so far out of whack with his career norms, I don't know if this is the start of a newly matured pitcher or just a career year.
And even with the career year, he wound up injured in the post-season and he has never been a big innings guy (for that matter, neither has Matz who has never even pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title).
For all the flack E-Rod gets about missing time, I think he'll look like a horse compared to some of those guys on the market.
Hope Bloom has a good countermove in mind. All I know is that in crunch time, E-Rod looked really good in the post-season in those last two starts.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 15, 2021 13:44:15 GMT -5
Erod first 14 games 5-4 72.2 innings, 85 strikeouts, 6.07 ERA 3.67 FIP .297 average allowed .833 OPS
Last 18 games 8-4 85 innings, 100 strikeouts, 3.60 ERA, 3.03 FIP, .258 average allowed .706 OPS
After he knocked the rust off after missing a year he was darn good. If he took a one year QO and pitched like the second half of next year wouldn't he be in line for a huge deal? Like Lester or Corbin type?
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 15, 2021 13:49:06 GMT -5
A little ambivalent towards this, I don't see it as the insane value win some do because of the opt-out, but would have been fine if the Sox made the same deal. One thought is perhaps there is a free agent with a QO attached who they are targeting, and this keeps the draft implications relatively neutral.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2021 13:53:41 GMT -5
I wonder if Rodriguez did not give the Red Sox the opportunity to match this deal, whether because he was excited about working with Juan Nieves in Detroit again or because there was some ill will towards the Red Sox somehow. Hard to believe that the Red Sox couldn’t top this one. Yeah I think people here are being super, super irrational making the assumption that Bloom wasn't willing to match this and not even considering the fact that Rodriguez just straight up might've wanted to leave. With the limited information we have (which, unlike many here, I actually know how to admit) this is about the exact line of indifference for me. I would've been fine giving E-Rod this contract, but it's also not such a steal that I'm upset the Sox didn't land him for it. Sucks to lose a quality starter, but I don't really see why so many people are up in arms about this. If you're correct, the Sox were willing to match it, and E-Rod still wanted to leave, that doesn't say great things about being a Red Sox, does it? I mean if all things are equal why would you want to leave a team that was 2 wins away from the Series to go to another team that hasn't seen .500 in a long time? Have trouble believing that Nieves is that huge a difference maker. Odds are the offer from the Tigers topped the Red Sox offer. I think people are "up in arms" about it because E-Rod is a better pitcher than his numbers showed, he was pitching better and better, beating the two best AL offenses in the playoffs, as he shook off the rust from missing 2020, the contract he signed for is totally affordable, and the market might wind up with the Sox paying more for a guy who winds up being a lesser pitcher or they sign a lower cost guy who isn't as good as E-Rod. Granted, Bloom could wind up signing a free agent who works out well or makes a trade, etc - who knows - and they wind up better off. It's just that the list of guys on the free agent market aren't exactly more appealing. Not saying that E-Rod is the kind of loss you never get over. Just saying that today the Sox got worse and we don't know if they'll wind up better off with whoever they get to replace him. I think the odds are they'll be worse off, but we'll just have to wait and see.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 14:06:41 GMT -5
I think E-Rod will do well in that bigger ballpark. I think the Tigers made themselves a great deal and I think they will give the Yankees a run for their money on signing Correa. Perhaps the Yankees wind up with Seager instead and Detroit does indeed snag Correa, but their E-Rod acquisition, the Barnhart trade, tells me that the Tigers intend on being contenders for the ALC division title. The division is rather weak, so it makes sense. As for the Sox, maybe Bloom figures that he can get as much if not more out of somebody like Carlos Rodon as he can E-Rod and can net the extra draft pick in the process? I was looking at Rodon's season which was fantastic, but normally he's been a decent pitcher, but this season is so far out of whack with his career norms, I don't know if this is the start of a newly matured pitcher or just a career year. And even with the career year, he wound up injured in the post-season and he has never been a big innings guy (for that matter, neither has Matz who has never even pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title). For all the flack E-Rod gets about missing time, I think he'll look like a horse compared to some of those guys on the market. Hope Bloom has a good countermove in mind. All I know is that in crunch time, E-Rod looked really good in the post-season in those last two starts. The Tigers defense was absolutely dreadful this year, so they'd better sign Correa (or at least Story) or Eduardo is liable to have another terrible ERA-FIP gap.
In the starting FA market, for my money there are 4 or 5 pitchers that are better than Rodriguez, and they are all huge health/age risks: Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Rodon, and maybe Syndergaard.
There are two pitchers on Rodriguez's tier: Stroman and Gausman, and as a ground ball pitcher Stroman fits the Red Sox poorly.
And then there are a bunch of guys who would be a clear step down from Eduardo: Greinke, Gray, Matz, etc.
If they sign one of the high-end risky guys I'll cross my fingers. If they sign Gausman for a comparable deal to Rodriguez' I'll be satisfied. If they go bargain-hunting in the third tier I'll be pretty worried.
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Post by manfred on Nov 15, 2021 14:20:49 GMT -5
It is hard to see how the Sox make a big FA pitching sign that is a better deal than this. You are looking at either worse pitchers (the Duffy type) or guys who will cost as much or more (the old studs, Stroman).
This is worrisome.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2021 14:33:18 GMT -5
I think E-Rod will do well in that bigger ballpark. I think the Tigers made themselves a great deal and I think they will give the Yankees a run for their money on signing Correa. Perhaps the Yankees wind up with Seager instead and Detroit does indeed snag Correa, but their E-Rod acquisition, the Barnhart trade, tells me that the Tigers intend on being contenders for the ALC division title. The division is rather weak, so it makes sense. As for the Sox, maybe Bloom figures that he can get as much if not more out of somebody like Carlos Rodon as he can E-Rod and can net the extra draft pick in the process? I was looking at Rodon's season which was fantastic, but normally he's been a decent pitcher, but this season is so far out of whack with his career norms, I don't know if this is the start of a newly matured pitcher or just a career year. And even with the career year, he wound up injured in the post-season and he has never been a big innings guy (for that matter, neither has Matz who has never even pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title). For all the flack E-Rod gets about missing time, I think he'll look like a horse compared to some of those guys on the market. Hope Bloom has a good countermove in mind. All I know is that in crunch time, E-Rod looked really good in the post-season in those last two starts. The Tigers defense was absolutely dreadful this year, so they'd better sign Correa (or at least Story) or Eduardo is liable to have another terrible ERA-FIP gap. In the starting FA market, for my money there are 4 or 5 pitchers that are better than Rodriguez, and they are all huge health/age risks: Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Rodon, and maybe Syndergaard. There are two pitchers on Rodriguez's tier: Stroman and Gausman, and as a ground ball pitcher Stroman fits the Red Sox poorly. And then there are a bunch of guys who would be a clear step down from Eduardo: Greinke, Gray, Matz, etc. If they sign one of the high-end risky guys I'll cross my fingers. If they sign Gausman for a comparable deal to Rodriguez' I'll be satisfied. If they go bargain-hunting in the third tier I'll be pretty worried.
What do you make of Carlos Rodon? He had a great year last year. What is he going forward?
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Post by Guidas on Nov 15, 2021 14:34:00 GMT -5
Honestly, I'm a little surprised he didn't just take the QO if he was willing to accept this deal. He'll be making $4 million less this season than he would've with the QO, and while he obviously gains some security he could've entered the market again next year, probably with better results under his belt and without the QO attached. I agree with you initial point that this is a big miss by Bloom/the Front Office, but from Eddie's perspective, he's guaranteed $77M AND he gets another bite of the apple if he wants it in two years. This is a win-win for the player, especially if his arm falls off this year. Also, if there's a signing bonus, he gets those millions to tide him over if there's a strike. Bloom really needs to produce a show-me upgrade at starter to trump this deal.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 15, 2021 14:36:43 GMT -5
I wonder if Rodriguez did not give the Red Sox the opportunity to match this deal, whether because he was excited about working with Juan Nieves in Detroit again or because there was some ill will towards the Red Sox somehow. Hard to believe that the Red Sox couldn’t top this one. To your point, I wonder if he felt so slighted by their offer (Speier said they were very far apart) that, like Jon Lester, he basically said "Screw it, peace out"?
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Post by Guidas on Nov 15, 2021 14:40:15 GMT -5
The Tigers defense was absolutely dreadful this year, so they'd better sign Correa (or at least Story) or Eduardo is liable to have another terrible ERA-FIP gap. In the starting FA market, for my money there are 4 or 5 pitchers that are better than Rodriguez, and they are all huge health/age risks: Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Rodon, and maybe Syndergaard. There are two pitchers on Rodriguez's tier: Stroman and Gausman, and as a ground ball pitcher Stroman fits the Red Sox poorly. And then there are a bunch of guys who would be a clear step down from Eduardo: Greinke, Gray, Matz, etc. If they sign one of the high-end risky guys I'll cross my fingers. If they sign Gausman for a comparable deal to Rodriguez' I'll be satisfied. If they go bargain-hunting in the third tier I'll be pretty worried.
What do you make of Carlos Rodon? He had a great year last year. What is he going forward? Injured. Repeatedly. Loved him with NC State, and when healthy he's a #2, but I hate picking up long-term (more than 2 years) deals on guys with shoulder injuries. Unlike TJ surgery, results show pitchers with shoulder repairs are, in the vast majority, never the same. There are always exceptions, but it's not like TJ at all. Hard pass.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 15, 2021 14:43:01 GMT -5
Yeah I think people here are being super, super irrational making the assumption that Bloom wasn't willing to match this and not even considering the fact that Rodriguez just straight up might've wanted to leave. With the limited information we have (which, unlike many here, I actually know how to admit) this is about the exact line of indifference for me. I would've been fine giving E-Rod this contract, but it's also not such a steal that I'm upset the Sox didn't land him for it. Sucks to lose a quality starter, but I don't really see why so many people are up in arms about this. If you're correct, the Sox were willing to match it, and E-Rod still wanted to leave, that doesn't say great things about being a Red Sox, does it? I mean if all things are equal why would you want to leave a team that was 2 wins away from the Series to go to another team that hasn't seen .500 in a long time? Have trouble believing that Nieves is that huge a difference maker. Odds are the offer from the Tigers topped the Red Sox offer. I think people are "up in arms" about it because E-Rod is a better pitcher than his numbers showed, he was pitching better and better, beating the two best AL offenses in the playoffs, as he shook off the rust from missing 2020, the contract he signed for is totally affordable, and the market might wind up with the Sox paying more for a guy who winds up being a lesser pitcher or they sign a lower cost guy who isn't as good as E-Rod. Granted, Bloom could wind up signing a free agent who works out well or makes a trade, etc - who knows - and they wind up better off. It's just that the list of guys on the free agent market aren't exactly more appealing. Not saying that E-Rod is the kind of loss you never get over. Just saying that today the Sox got worse and we don't know if they'll wind up better off with whoever they get to replace him. I think the odds are they'll be worse off, but we'll just have to wait and see. Detroit was always seen as a likely landing spot for him well before this news broke because of his connection to Nieves, there's a very probable world in which the offers were at least comparable, he doesn't have animosity towards the Red Sox, and just wanted to rekindle that connection. Maybe the Red Sox did mess up! It's certainly possible. But the overwhelmingly myopic response to a move that is disappointing but at the same time understandable is just kind of annoying to see, in my opinion. I'm all for reasonable disappointment to losing a valuable member of the team, but the key word there is reasonable. Also probably worth pointing out that 90% of the snap negative reactions to a move Bloom has made or didn't make have turned out to look bad (and most looked bad at the time), so I'm not really seeing the logic in freaking out or crying that he mismanaged it. But whatever, to each their own, people can be fans however they want.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 15, 2021 14:43:38 GMT -5
I wonder if Rodriguez did not give the Red Sox the opportunity to match this deal, whether because he was excited about working with Juan Nieves in Detroit again or because there was some ill will towards the Red Sox somehow. Hard to believe that the Red Sox couldn’t top this one. To your point, I wonder if he felt so slighted by their offer (Speier said they were very far apart) that, like Jon Lester, he basically said "Screw it, peace out"? seriously dude, enough with this stuff.. That was a prior FO, and really not everyone wants to live their entire life in the pressure cooker that is Boston
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 14:45:54 GMT -5
It is hard to see how the Sox make a big FA pitching sign that is a better deal than this. You are looking at either worse pitchers (the Duffy type) or guys who will cost as much or more (the old studs, Stroman). This is worrisome. To this point, here are some select steamer projections for ERA/fWAR:
Scherzer: 3.43/4.2
Verlander: 3.56/3.6 Kershaw: 3.57/3.2
Rodriguez: 3.65/3.7
How much more are Scherzer and Verlander, in particular, going to cost in AAV for a very marginal/non-existent upgrade in projected value?
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 14:49:13 GMT -5
The Tigers defense was absolutely dreadful this year, so they'd better sign Correa (or at least Story) or Eduardo is liable to have another terrible ERA-FIP gap. In the starting FA market, for my money there are 4 or 5 pitchers that are better than Rodriguez, and they are all huge health/age risks: Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Rodon, and maybe Syndergaard. There are two pitchers on Rodriguez's tier: Stroman and Gausman, and as a ground ball pitcher Stroman fits the Red Sox poorly. And then there are a bunch of guys who would be a clear step down from Eduardo: Greinke, Gray, Matz, etc. If they sign one of the high-end risky guys I'll cross my fingers. If they sign Gausman for a comparable deal to Rodriguez' I'll be satisfied. If they go bargain-hunting in the third tier I'll be pretty worried.
What do you make of Carlos Rodon? He had a great year last year. What is he going forward? I listed him as one of the better-than-Rodriguez health risk guys, but after reading your comment I looked up his numbers and I think there's a real possibility 2021 was an outlier and maybe he shouldn't be considered a better pitcher even if healthy. In any case, my official opinion on Rodon is that you need to have an advanced medical degree to have an opinion, but the fact that the White Sox didn't offer him a QO is not a great sign.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 15, 2021 14:50:15 GMT -5
It is hard to see how the Sox make a big FA pitching sign that is a better deal than this. You are looking at either worse pitchers (the Duffy type) or guys who will cost as much or more (the old studs, Stroman). This is worrisome. To this point, here are some select steamer projections for ERA/fWAR:
Scherzer: 3.43/4.2
Verlander: 3.56/3.6 Kershaw: 3.57/3.2
Rodriguez: 3.65/3.7
How much more are Scherzer and Verlander, in particular, going to cost in AAV for a very marginal/non-existent upgrade in projected value?
How can steamer or any projection site realistically project for a guy like Verlander who has pitched 6 innings since 2020 and is going to be 39 by the start of the season?
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 14:55:09 GMT -5
To this point, here are some select steamer projections for ERA/fWAR:
Scherzer: 3.43/4.2
Verlander: 3.56/3.6 Kershaw: 3.57/3.2
Rodriguez: 3.65/3.7
How much more are Scherzer and Verlander, in particular, going to cost in AAV for a very marginal/non-existent upgrade in projected value?
How can steamer or any projection site realistically project for a guy like Verlander who has pitched 6 innings since 2020 and is going to be 39 by the start of the season? How much can any team realistically project for a guy like that? As it is, I thinker steamer's projection of 161 IP is pretty generous.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 14:57:28 GMT -5
Honestly, I'm a little surprised he didn't just take the QO if he was willing to accept this deal. He'll be making $4 million less this season than he would've with the QO, and while he obviously gains some security he could've entered the market again next year, probably with better results under his belt and without the QO attached. I agree with you initial point that this is a big miss by Bloom/the Front Office, but from Eddie's perspective, he's guaranteed $77M AND he gets another bite of the apple if he wants it in two years. This is a win-win for the player, especially if his arm falls off this year. Also, if there's a signing bonus, he gets those millions to tide him over if there's a strike.Bloom really needs to produce a show-me upgrade at starter to trump this deal. Oh that's a good point; having two guaranteed years rather than just the one that the QO would give him hedges against an extended work stoppage in 2022.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Nov 15, 2021 14:57:39 GMT -5
It is hard to see how the Sox make a big FA pitching sign that is a better deal than this. You are looking at either worse pitchers (the Duffy type) or guys who will cost as much or more (the old studs, Stroman). This is worrisome. To this point, here are some select steamer projections for ERA/fWAR:
Scherzer: 3.43/4.2
Verlander: 3.56/3.6 Kershaw: 3.57/3.2
Rodriguez: 3.65/3.7
How much more are Scherzer and Verlander, in particular, going to cost in AAV for a very marginal/non-existent upgrade in projected value?
My guess is Verlander and Scherzer get $20-25 a year for at least 2 years. Kershaw’s health changes his price dramatically. But Erod will be a bargain next to the two righties.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 15, 2021 14:59:03 GMT -5
How can steamer or any projection site realistically project for a guy like Verlander who has pitched 6 innings since 2020 and is going to be 39 by the start of the season? How much can any team realistically project for a guy like that? As it is, I thinker steamer's projection of 161 IP is pretty generous. I guess that is what I'm saying overall on Verlander. I want nothing to do with him. I'd be pretty mad if they let erod go for 16 mil AAV only to sign Verlander for 20+ million. Let Verlander be someone else's problem.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2021 15:12:35 GMT -5
To this point, here are some select steamer projections for ERA/fWAR:
Scherzer: 3.43/4.2
Verlander: 3.56/3.6 Kershaw: 3.57/3.2
Rodriguez: 3.65/3.7
How much more are Scherzer and Verlander, in particular, going to cost in AAV for a very marginal/non-existent upgrade in projected value?
My guess is Verlander and Scherzer get $20-25 a year for at least 2 years. Kershaw’s health changes his price dramatically. But Erod will be a bargain next to the two righties. I think even that is way low on Scherzer: fangraphs projects from 2/70 to 3/96 for him.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 15, 2021 15:13:31 GMT -5
So long ERod, Thanks for all your efforts. The Game Thread will.......not miss you as much. LOL. He was kind of a whipping boy when things weren't going well, because it seemed he was always capable of more. It hurts most because he is so young, 5 years seems like nothing for 28 year old.
1). Could be a precursor to Bloom going for a bigger name pitcher on a shorter FA deal or trade. Could Scherzer be had for more AAV and less years commitment ? The opt out is unknown, so it only has rudimentary implications. They are more common nowadays. 2). Bump for Houck and Whitlock as the newfangled, less total inning starters ?? Per the TB model 3). General aversion to long term deals, particularly for starting pitching ? 4). ERod wanted out. 5). Sox won't commit because of CBA uncertainty.
This is the kind of thing that Sox fans may have to get used to. We aren't sure what kind of GM he is in the FA market.
Anyway. it is surprising he signed so early. Bloom seems like the kind of guy who isn't going to flinch on an early signing competition. He is a patient guy from what I can tell.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Nov 15, 2021 15:16:35 GMT -5
Eddie, come back! Say it ain't so!
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 15, 2021 15:21:48 GMT -5
In regards to Rodon In my opinion he will be very good like he was this year but he needs restrictions on innings pitched. Keep his innings down and he will be lights out. Maybe with no QO he is the target. With ERod on the Sox it wouldn't make as much sense with adding another lefty to the rotation.
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