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Post by Guidas on Apr 6, 2022 14:55:38 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 6, 2022 16:30:29 GMT -5
Four 88 wins teams 1) what a cop out 2) there is no way at least one if not two or three AL East teams win 90+ games It's literally a computer projection system so I don't see how it's a cop out. Interestingly, ZiPS has just one team (Houston) winning 90 games in the AL, and that literally just 90. ZiPS does have all 4 AL East teams making the playoffs as well.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 6, 2022 16:35:52 GMT -5
Projection systems almost never project more than 90 wins. The teams that go beyond that had a lot of fortunate outcomes that cannot be predicted.
Also, according to that article, they got rid of extra games to determine seeding on ties and went to something like NFL tiebreaker rules to determine it. Probably a good idea with so many playoff spots now. Was not aware of that from the new CBA.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 6, 2022 16:49:38 GMT -5
Four 88 wins teams 1) what a cop out 2) there is no way at least one if not two or three AL East teams win 90+ games It's literally a computer projection system so I don't see how it's a cop out. Interestingly, ZiPS has just one team (Houston) winning 90 games in the AL, and that literally just 90. ZiPS does have all 4 AL East teams making the playoffs as well. There were six teams last year that had 77 or fewer wins: Orioles, Rangers, Twins, Royals, Angels, and Tigers. Three of those teams (Rangers/Twins/Tigers) made substantial improvements to their roster, and add the Angels as a fourth if Trout is healthy this year. The only AL team that's really taken a step back is the A's. It's gonna be hard for the better teams to pile up the wins this year - not enough dreck to go around!
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Post by soxinjersey on Apr 7, 2022 14:47:06 GMT -5
I seem to recall E-Rod saying a few times during his time with the RS that he wanted to stay. My impression is that CB just didn't want make the commitment the Tigers made. When E-Rod commented after signing with Detroit that it was time for him to leave Boston, my first reaction was that he was doing the ol' "You didn't break up with me. I broke up with you." The fact that the RS apparently didn't match the modest contract he got from the Tigers supports this POV, I think. CB seemed to have no interest. Just my opinion. YMMV.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Apr 7, 2022 14:50:54 GMT -5
Why Red Sox Can Win American League East (And World Series?) In 2022 nesn.com/2022/04/why-red-sox-can-win-american-league-east-and-world-series-in-2022/The Red Sox are one of many teams considered to be fringe contenders for a playoff berth. But many oddsmakers are not high on Boston for the 2022 Major League Baseball season. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Red Sox are given the fourth-best odds to win the American League East, at +550. Fans and bettors alike often look at Opening Day rosters to determine what is going to happen, a method that rarely proves fruitful. And while some evaluators already are taking the Red Sox out of contention, there is a 162-game season with many twists and turning points awaiting. Here is why the Red Sox can win the AL East and possibly take home the World Series trophy.
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Post by soxinjersey on Apr 7, 2022 16:05:30 GMT -5
I have the feeling that almost everyone on this site has felt some cognitive dissonance when considering E-Rod's departure because most of us took it for granted that he was happy here and that the Sox should have been willing to match the Tigers' offer. But, as several here have noted, the speed with which he left suggests that he was truly ready to go, and all signs seem to suggest that the Sox didn't try hard to re-sign him. To me, the interesting question is why not?
As I've written before, I am a coach and imagine that all coaches consider more than numbers when they decide who plays and who receives a uniform. So, what might the E-Rod decision tell us about the Sox's expectations for players? I've always liked E-Rod and had high hopes for him, but looking backward, it strikes me how much discontent there has been on this site over the years about E-Rod, specifically the fact that he nibbled and had high pitch counts that prevented him from going deep into games. As I remember, Cora, who is usually supportive in public statements, made many critical comments about E-Rod in this vein. It also seems to me that there have been questions about his conditioning, something on which Cora frequently comments when speaking of players. When I look at established pitchers like Eovaldi and Sale and at young pitchers like Pivetta, Houck, and Whitlock, the common thread I see is their aggressiveness: they go after hitters and have a strong presence on the mound. Isn't the goal right now for the young pitchers, especially Houck, to throw a high percentage of strikes?
I suspect that what they had hoped from E-Rod is that he would grow into this kind of profile but felt the price tag was too high to continue to wait for that development, and I further suspect that the Tigers hope that as a veteran on a staff of outstanding young pitchers, E-Rod will thrive in the role of leader (instead of always being the young kid as he seemed to be with the Sox). I wish him the best.
Another factor in this decision, I suspect, is that the Sox don't like to lock up too many spots in the belief that new players add energy (and often are significantly more economical). His departure is a sign of trust in Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock, and the rising tide of pitchers in the high minors. This trust, combined with patience, worked last year. Why not in 2022 when the core of the team is much stronger than a year ago?
I did not expect the Sox to go with JBJ in RF, but if he remains the primary player in that position, I will applaud the Sox's trust in his ability to bounce back from a disastrous year (as Renfroe did in 2021). As with E-Rod, it's worth asking why the Sox were willing to let Renfroe walk. I imagine the Sox have a vision of the type of player they want in the field. In this case, I suspect that the Sox tired of seeing Renfroe throw over the head of the cut-off man, and they know that JBJ will do all the little things right. He's a pro, and we can only hope that he will hit enough to warrant CB's trust.
What qualities are the Sox looking for? I imagine they are looking for players who buy into the program and try to do everything the right way. They want players who compete with fire and get after people. They want players who listen and work to improve. They want players who communicate positively within the framework of the team. They want players who take care of themselves and condition in the off-season.
Isn't that everybody? We are all concerned about the contract situations of X and Raffy: will they sign long-term extensions? Will they receive what they consider to be fair offers? The truth is they have weaknesses. AC praised X's condition when he arrived at ST. I'm not sure what this implies, but I suspect that it means that he lost some weight in the hopes of gaining an extra half-step in the field in an effort to erase the doubts about his fielding performance. I'm pretty confident that Raffy left last October with suggestions on how to improve as a player (e.g., with more patience at the plate and more attention to conditioning). I like the fact that the team seems ready to keep raising the bar, even for great players, and my guess is that the team's willingness to meet these players' salary demands depends on how they continue to grow as players and how long the team believes they will be able to sustain a high level of performance. Luck (with injuries) and talent will be a factor in their evolution, but character will also play a big part.
In any event, even with all the questions that remain, I believe the team is in an excellent position to start the season.
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Post by nuttyredsox on Apr 7, 2022 18:49:58 GMT -5
Insider Projects Tremendous Offensive Numbers For Trevor Story In 2022 nesn.com/2022/04/insider-projects-tremendous-offensive-numbers-for-trevor-story-in-2022/The Boston Red Sox made a large investment in star shortstop-turned-second baseman Trevor Story. According to one writer, that investment will be well worth it, as she is expecting lofty offensive production from the 29-year-old. “Trevor Story has a 30-homer, 30-double season in his debut in Boston,” The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey wrote when making predictions for the Red Sox season. “These numbers might be conservative considering Story’s pull-side power and ability to use the wall in left at Fenway. “Story has had two seasons in 2018 and 2019 where he hit more than 30 homers and 30 doubles so there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again with the help of Fenway’s friendly dimensions for his swing.” Story is an elite power hitter that has a precedent of putting up this kind of production. The Green Monster should be a great aid to the first-year Red Sox slugger.
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Post by orcoaster on Apr 8, 2022 8:27:02 GMT -5
Let me put an Opening Day Bow on this thread.
I still like my B+ rating. Since the thread posted there have been some minor shufflings in the bullpen, Chris Sale hit the DL, the rotation became set, no positional players were added.
The Good: The lineup is better than last year. Story upgrades Renfroe as the power righthanded bat. Dalbec should improve. Kiki may become more consistent. Verdugo and Devers are still getting better. Bogaerts, JD, and Vasquez are playing for contracts. JBJ is playing for pride. Strong bats are on the bench. Top to bottom, this lineup is stronger than the one that played in October. And Tristan Casas is on the way. The lineup is poised to hit more homeruns and and score more runs than the 2021 squad.
A real problem last year, the defense is much improved. Story's acquisition improves both the infield and the outfield. Kiki and Verdugo can stay put. JBJ should be a GG contender (but he won't hit enough to be considered, ironically.) Devers has already improved and will continue to get better. Bogaerts and Story could well become one of the best DP combos in the league. Story should contend for a GG. Dalbec will be better and Casas even better than him. I still think Vazquez is overrated defensively, but he won't be worse than last season. Overall, the team will prevent more runs than last year.
The potentially Bad: The bullpen. It's best attribute as of now is cost-effectiveness. There is no clearcut Closer, but there are several worthy candidates (Barnes, Strahm, Diekman, Robles, etc.) Bullpens are organic; they take shape on their own time. Remember how Koji came out of nowhere to have the single best season a Red Sox Closer ever had. There are a lot of options here and a good one could emerge. Or a true Committee could develop. Or a top flight arm could be added. We also have a designated Bullpen Ace a la Andrew Miller (Whitlock.) Bullpens are tough to build, but options are good to have and this one has plenty of those. Good arms in Worcester too. And it is healthy right now. Bonus. Fingers crossed -- but things could go sideways too. It could get bad. I'd say it's 60/40 the bullpen is better than last year's group, 40% is cause for concern.
The Potentially Ugly. The rotation. Eovaldi and Pivetta are great anchors, but I'd feel much better if they were #3 and #4 rather than #1 and #2. The rest all have question marks. The upside is high: Sale comes back healthy and dominates for three months; Paxton the same for a bit longer; Houck makes his mark; Hill and Wacha deliver. Fun to think about, but it's a lot to hope for. Seems like there needs to be an arm added to the top of the rotation, especially if the team is in contention otherwise. (Wish we'd signed Scherzer.) Nothing can deplete a bullpen faster than a poor rotation, and that is the risk here. This could get ugly. If the season derails, it will probably be because of the rotation.
So, poor marks for not adding one more starter and possibly another outfielder; but stay tuned. Those stories are not told yet. Otherwise, the Sox are a better team than last season, no doubt. I wonder if you took this lineup and put it in pinstripes, would the national media be declaring it a champion? Sometimes the laundry changes perception. Regardless, I got the dogs and beer ready to go. Play Ball!
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Post by incandenza on Apr 8, 2022 9:22:27 GMT -5
C+. The outfield situation is a little weird, but if you think of the positional moves collectively, they've probably improved the offense overall and almost certainly improved the defense, which is something they needed to do. I am a little worried about JDM declining, and JBJ not regressing closer to his career norms, but those are issues that can be addressd mid-season if the need arises.
I like how the bullpen looks. Nice depth.
My biggest complaint is not keeping Eduardo Rodriguez in the rotation. There's a potetnial for the starting pitching to really go sideways. Chris Sale missing at least two months after having pitched only 42 innings since 2019 is not a great start. I am not a believer in Wacha, and Hill is too old for me to count on. I half think Pivetta could have a big break out, but realisticaly he'll probably have an ERA in the 4s again.
And I was really expecting a Devers extension, or if not then Bogaerts. I just don't understand how a team like the Red Sox can't make at least one of those happen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 8, 2022 9:25:58 GMT -5
Now that the offseason is nearly over I'd have to give the Sox a C-/D+. I think Chris had a good point about Bloom not seeing Opening Day as the finish line to construct the roster, that he's ok with it being incomplete to start the season.
So we have a snapshot at Opening Day to grade upon and as I do I think the team on the field today is not quite as good as the team on the field when they were finished off by the Astros.
I figured the rotation would be Eovaldi/Sale/E-Rod/Pivetta and either Houck or Whitlock. They essentially swapped out E-Rod, Richards, and Perez with Hill, Wacha, and Paxton. In 2022, I'd expect E-Rod to be the best of those six pitchers by far. Paxton has the capability but he is so often injured, it's really hard to count on him to replace E-Rod. Hill has his age and Wacha his poor track record over the past few years.
I figured the pen would be improved, that they wouldn't want to role the dice with a Barnes comeback or restrict Whitlock to being a one inning closer. It's good Robles is back, but I wouldn't want to rely on him to close if Barnes fails. I think Diekman will be a mess, but I do think Strahm could be a really sneaky good signing.
To me, the lineup is unimproved from last season. I think Story will be similar to the 2021 version of Renfroe, which is not a slam on anybody. That it's coming from the 2b position is an improvement, but that it leaves JBJ as the 3rd OF is not an improvement, even with the better defense. When the trade was made, a lot of us rationalized that JBJ was going to be the 4th OF and that they'd get a RH hitting corner bat and that never happened. Then a lot of us speculated that they'd at least get a corner OF bench bat and that hasn't materialized so they're hoping Arroyo can learn the OF quickly on the fly. If he doesn't, then I guess we see JD Martinez there and I don't think that's desirable.
So while Story replaces Renfroe's bat, Schwarber's bat is missing, a strong LH hitting bat with good OBP skills, which means the Sox really can't have much of the Bobby Dalbec April - July version that they had last year. They need him to really step forward to mitigate Schwarber's loss. I do see a scenario where Casas can be the LH hitting impact midseason bat, however, but if Dalbec struggles early and Casas isn't ready, that's problematic, especially if JBJ doesn't hit.
So I don't see a better team. I think the bullpen will be very problematic and the rotation to start with will be thin. I think the rotation can be salvaged if Eovaldi stays healthy, Sale and Paxton provide a midseason boost and at least one of Pivetta, Houck, and/or Whitlock step forward as a front line starter.
The bullpen is going to be a mess for awhile. Not sure why Bazardo was DFA, so I don't think they'll have immediate help from AAA, although Crawford could be more impactful than originally anticipated.
So right now I don't see an improved team, but like I said before I didn't see one on Aug 1 last year either, and it worked out, so it remains to be seen.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 8, 2022 9:31:38 GMT -5
I get the incomplete argument, but doesn’t it seem like a cop-out? I mean, the off-season is the off-season. Saying, oh, Bloom will fill it out later gives him a pass — why not count those as in-season moves? Schwarber didn’t change last off-season; he was a great in season addition.
Not having another OF is bad. If he adds an outfielder, that solves a problem, but it doesn’t raise the off-season grade.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 8, 2022 9:57:32 GMT -5
I get the incomplete argument, but doesnât it seem like a cop-out? I mean, the off-season is the off-season. Saying, oh, Bloom will fill it out later gives him a pass â why not count those as in-season moves? Schwarber didnât change last off-season; he was a great in season addition. Not having another OF is bad. If he adds an outfielder, that solves a problem, but it doesnât raise the off-season grade. I mostly agree with you, but what I'll say for the off-season grade is what if he's right that they don't need to add another OF? The approach would have been - we think Jackie can rebound and the mix of guys we have is good enough and our trade and financial resources are better saved for elsewhere, but we want to confirm we're right on the OF first. Does that retroactively raise your off-season grade because he was correct? Personal grade is in the C+ range as well, I'm not pumped with the rotation I think they could have used another reliable arm. I would have really liked an extension for Devers (how much of that is within their control, I'm not sure). I'm okay with this outfield but I would have liked another guy, at least as depth, Arroyo has an injury history, I don't know that Kiké can be expected to play 150 games, JBJ is obviously a performance risk.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 8, 2022 10:26:38 GMT -5
I get the incomplete argument, but doesnât it seem like a cop-out? I mean, the off-season is the off-season. Saying, oh, Bloom will fill it out later gives him a pass â why not count those as in-season moves? Schwarber didnât change last off-season; he was a great in season addition. Not having another OF is bad. If he adds an outfielder, that solves a problem, but it doesnât raise the off-season grade. I mostly agree with you, but what I'll say for the off-season grade is what if he's right that they don't need to add another OF? The approach would have been - we think Jackie can rebound and the mix of guys we have is good enough and our trade and financial resources are better saved for elsewhere, but we want to confirm we're right on the OF first. Does that retroactively raise your off-season grade because he was correct? Personal grade is in the C+ range as well, I'm not pumped with the rotation I think they could have used another reliable arm. I would have really liked an extension for Devers (how much of that is within their control, I'm not sure). I'm okay with this outfield but I would have liked another guy, at least as depth, Arroyo has an injury history, I don't know that Kiké can be expected to play 150 games, JBJ is obviously a performance risk. Definitely — if JBJ, say, has a comeback year and/or Arroyo contributes as an OF, I would raise my grade. For my part, if Paxton comes back strong, I’d raise my C grade, too. I expect nothing out of him, which factored in.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 8, 2022 10:57:41 GMT -5
One thing that I don't see discussed is that Houck is now in the rotation for the full season and Whitlock is also poised to join it if needed. ERod won't be a huge loss, especially for the 'results are the only thing that matters' crowd.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 8, 2022 11:04:09 GMT -5
One thing that I don't see discussed is that Houck is now in the rotation for the full season and Whitlock is also poised to join it if needed. ERod won't be a huge loss, especially for the 'results are the only thing that matters' crowd. Not sure I follow that logic. It's not like he wouldn't have made the rotation if he were still here; Houck and Whitlock aren't displacing him. The "results are the only thing that matters" crowd presumably just want the best rotation possible.
If you want to make a comparison, look at the $22 million they spent on Wacha/Hill/Paxton vs. the $14 million Eduardo's getting paid. That's his "replacement," if anything is.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 8, 2022 11:45:30 GMT -5
Well, the beat a dead horse season is about over. But before it is finished, I give it a B rating. It is undeniable that the defense is improved over the start of last season at 2B, RF, and the same for Kiké and Dugie starting the season as experienced CF and LF. We could say the same about Dalbec and a slimmed down Devers. It is a markedly improved defensive team. I am happy to have JBJ's glove again, no matter his role, and consider his 2021 offense a stew of anomalies, but think we will regret not signing Suzuki.
IMO I have always believed this powerful offense needed to replace the bats of both Renfroe and Schwarber. Well done in this regard. Storys bat replaces Renfroe, possibly by a wide margin. Done! Schwarber was a deadline acquisition, and a late one at that due to injury. Casas is likely that mid-season bat, and barring injuries, finding ABs for Casas, Bobby D and JDM may prove as difficult as it was with Schwarber. And without Casas, another smart pickup is almost a given. CB has proven adept at that (see Schwarber himself, Renfroe, Kiké, Dugie). And in terms of offense, Story + Duran + Hamilton and others in the system make for interesting speculation re: a team that could soon lead the league in triples as well as doubles; and drive pitchers to distraction with above average base running.
I also think there is more to the pitching strategy than is being discussed here. We have always been in awe of the Rays (and others) ability to make studs from non-studs; and their ability to mix and match with openers and multi inning relievers. CB is among those who know this process and seems to be bringing it to the Sox (example the once maligned Pivetta). The rotation showed well in ST but so did some role shifts. More often than not, for example, Hill + Whitlock, will make for dominant 7+ innings. Ditto for Wacha or Houck + Darwinzon. Would you be truly surprised if 15 pitchers make this successful for month one, and 13 pitchers + AAA guys perfect this process in months two and three (even as Sale, Paxton and Taylor heal; and the AAA/AA pitchers get ready for Fenway? As said in prior posts, 2022 is poised to take a more fluid approach to roster building. IMO creativity, not cheapness, will be the hallmark of this FO.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 8, 2022 13:40:34 GMT -5
One thing that I don't see discussed is that Houck is now in the rotation for the full season and Whitlock is also poised to join it if needed. ERod won't be a huge loss, especially for the 'results are the only thing that matters' crowd. Not sure I follow that logic. It's not like he wouldn't have made the rotation if he were still here; Houck and Whitlock aren't displacing him. The "results are the only thing that matters" crowd presumably just want the best rotation possible.
If you want to make a comparison, look at the $22 million they spent on Wacha/Hill/Paxton vs. the $14 million Eduardo's getting paid. That's his "replacement," if anything is.
The "results are the only thing that matters" comment was for all the people who were bashing ERod all last season for his ERA that was 2-3 runs higher than his FIP for a good portion of the season. They're also the ones who are upset he's gone now. I view Wacha/Hill/Paxton as replacing Richards/Perez. And Sale should contribute more as well.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 9, 2022 10:09:41 GMT -5
I get the incomplete argument, but doesn’t it seem like a cop-out? I mean, the off-season is the off-season. Saying, oh, Bloom will fill it out later gives him a pass — why not count those as in-season moves? Schwarber didn’t change last off-season; he was a great in season addition. Not having another OF is bad. If he adds an outfielder, that solves a problem, but it doesn’t raise the off-season grade. Exactly. Such an answer is an F for not completing the task as assigned.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 9, 2022 10:16:28 GMT -5
One thing that I don't see discussed is that Houck is now in the rotation for the full season and Whitlock is also poised to join it if needed. ERod won't be a huge loss, especially for the 'results are the only thing that matters' crowd. Not sure I follow that logic. It's not like he wouldn't have made the rotation if he were still here; Houck and Whitlock aren't displacing him. The "results are the only thing that matters" crowd presumably just want the best rotation possible.
If you want to make a comparison, look at the $22 million they spent on Wacha/Hill/Paxton vs. the $14 million Eduardo's getting paid. That's his "replacement," if anything is.
Agree. This rotation, with or without a recovering Paxton "sometime in July" is much better with ERod and the money was a bargain. He basically signed for the QO x 4. My gut says they low-balled him (maybe 4 years at $10-12 million per), and he and his agent we're like, "Yeah, that's a 'No,' but we wish you well, Chaim. Oh, and now you shall live in woe and lamentation."
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2022 10:24:05 GMT -5
Not sure I follow that logic. It's not like he wouldn't have made the rotation if he were still here; Houck and Whitlock aren't displacing him. The "results are the only thing that matters" crowd presumably just want the best rotation possible.
If you want to make a comparison, look at the $22 million they spent on Wacha/Hill/Paxton vs. the $14 million Eduardo's getting paid. That's his "replacement," if anything is.
Agree. This rotation, with or without a recovering Paxton "sometime in July" is much better with ERod and the money was a bargain. He basically signed for the QO x 4. My gut says they low-balled him (maybe 4 years at $10-12 million per), and he and his agent we're like, "Yeah, that's a 'No,' but we wish you well, Chaim. Oh, and now you shall live in woe and lamentation." ….. woe and lamentation." ….or maybe Bloom sees another contract similar to the extension they have with Chris Sale…..money out the door and lots of DL time and no production. I personally am tired of signing players long term and getting declining years.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 9, 2022 10:33:17 GMT -5
Agree. This rotation, with or without a recovering Paxton "sometime in July" is much better with ERod and the money was a bargain. He basically signed for the QO x 4. My gut says they low-balled him (maybe 4 years at $10-12 million per), and he and his agent we're like, "Yeah, that's a 'No,' but we wish you well, Chaim. Oh, and now you shall live in woe and lamentation." ….. woe and lamentation." ….or maybe Bloom sees another contract similar to the extension they have with Chris Sale…..money out the door and lots of DL time and no production. I personally am tired of signing players long term and getting declining years. If you're not willing to go 5 years for a 29 year old pitcher in good health because you're worried about injury and decline then I guess you just don't ever want to go higher than the Wacha/Hill tier of free agents. (And Chris Sale was 32, with an alarming decline in his velocity just before Dombrowski signed him to that extension; it's not really comparable in any way to Eduardo.)
Side note: I have this vague/anecdotal sense that the aging curves for positional players and pitchers are different in this way - positional players tend to reach their peak ability in their twenties, whereas pitchers reach their peak ability in their 30s, but only if they stay healthy, which they often do not. Does the data back that up?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 9, 2022 11:10:46 GMT -5
Not sure I follow that logic. It's not like he wouldn't have made the rotation if he were still here; Houck and Whitlock aren't displacing him. The "results are the only thing that matters" crowd presumably just want the best rotation possible.
If you want to make a comparison, look at the $22 million they spent on Wacha/Hill/Paxton vs. the $14 million Eduardo's getting paid. That's his "replacement," if anything is.
The "results are the only thing that matters" comment was for all the people who were bashing ERod all last season for his ERA that was 2-3 runs higher than his FIP for a good portion of the season. They're also the ones who are upset he's gone now. I view Wacha/Hill/Paxton as replacing Richards/Perez. And Sale should contribute more as well. Not sure why you can't reconcile the two thoughts that a guy can have lousy results which is what ultimately counts, but have predictive stats that clearly say that the arrow is most likely pointing upward in the future, two thoughts that clearly capture ERod. His year was disappointing last season. During a game I dont give a crap about luck, etc. When blooper hits or seeing eye hits stop counting as hits then I'll care just like a smoked 400 foot out is still an out. You don't get theoretical credit during actual ballgames for stuff that should statiscally happen or not happen. But there is a difference between actual results and predictive stats that can indicate a brighter or less brighter future. ERod's 2021 was mostly disappointing, but that doesn't mean that his 2022 season is bound to suck. Quite the opposite. I think he is primed to have a strong year where the results are more likely to match up with his peripherals. At the end of the day we just might actually agree and are just arguing semantics.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2022 12:01:03 GMT -5
….. woe and lamentation." ….or maybe Bloom sees another contract similar to the extension they have with Chris Sale…..money out the door and lots of DL time and no production. I personally am tired of signing players long term and getting declining years. If you're not willing to go 5 years for a 29 year old pitcher in good health because you're worried about injury and decline then I guess you just don't ever want to go higher than the Wacha/Hill tier of free agents. (And Chris Sale was 32, with an alarming decline in his velocity just before Dombrowski signed him to that extension; it's not really comparable in any way to Eduardo.)
Side note: I have this vague/anecdotal sense that the aging curves for positional players and pitchers are different in this way - positional players tend to reach their peak ability in their twenties, whereas pitchers reach their peak ability in their 30s, but only if they stay healthy, which they often do not. Does the data back that up?
“…if they stay healthy…..” Please do share your crystal ball as to which players will stay healthy with Bloom….
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Post by incandenza on Apr 9, 2022 12:12:59 GMT -5
If you're not willing to go 5 years for a 29 year old pitcher in good health because you're worried about injury and decline then I guess you just don't ever want to go higher than the Wacha/Hill tier of free agents. (And Chris Sale was 32, with an alarming decline in his velocity just before Dombrowski signed him to that extension; it's not really comparable in any way to Eduardo.)
Side note: I have this vague/anecdotal sense that the aging curves for positional players and pitchers are different in this way - positional players tend to reach their peak ability in their twenties, whereas pitchers reach their peak ability in their 30s, but only if they stay healthy, which they often do not. Does the data back that up?
“…if they stay healthy…..” Please do share your crystal ball as to which players will stay healthy with Bloom…. What are you arguing? Of course there is a risk of injury with any player, especially pitchers. It seems to me the proper response to that is not that one should not ever sign any free agents. So one has to choose. Eduardo, given his age and health history, seemed to me like a better bet than most.
If you really do think no pitcher should ever be signed to a 5-year contract (even with an opt-out after two years), then feel free to defend that position. To be honest, from what we've seen Bloom might well agree with you.
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