SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by orcoaster on Mar 20, 2022 23:19:02 GMT -5
At the risk of being premature, I'm going to declare the off season concluded. It's conceivable another player could be added, but I think those who will be on the opening day roster are already in the fold. So how does everyone think the Red Sox did?
I give them a B+. My intial appraisal was A-, but I was feeling the Trevor Story afterglow. I can't give high marks for the rotation. Pivetta looks very exciting and Eovaldi is solid, but the rest looks very sketchy. The talent is certainly there to develop a competitive staff, but it's 50/50 to be better than last year's group. Letting Erod go could be a huge blunder. If I were only grading the rotation, I'd probably say C-. They could be OK, but it's hard to see how this group matches up with the better rotations in the league. Too many IFs -- IF Sale is healthy and good. IF Paxton is Paxton again. If Sept Wacha is the real Wacha. IF Hill still has gas in the tank. IF Houck can get through a lineup more than twice. IF Whitlock can throw 100 pitches in one day. Lots can go wrong here. Fortunately, rotations aren't as important as they used to be.
Things improve in the bullpen. I'm betting we see more of first-half Matt Barnes than that other guy. First-half Barnes was terrific and reliable. I think he'll be back. There's enough spaghetti on the wall to fill in behind him between the new acquisitions and the AAAA arms. I think the bullpen will be a smidge or two better than last year. Grade: B.
The lineup is also improved. Substitute Story for Renfroe and JBJ for Arroyo et. al., and we are way ahead. Personally, I'm bullish on JBJ and glad to have him back. No one had a career year last year; I expect Verdugo and Dalbec to be better and the rest to be about the same. Vasquez is a problem, but he was last year too. Grade: A-.
Add Story to second and JBJ to RF and the defense is greatly improved. Dalbec and Devers should get much better. A questionable defense last year is suddenly more than competent. Grade: A.
Overall: B+. Over/Under for season wins: 93.5. I don't think they win the division, but they are a good bet to make the playoffs.
I'm excited. Play Ball!
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Mar 21, 2022 7:35:34 GMT -5
I don't really agree with the wording for the top choice since improvement isn't the one and only goal as we saw in the Dombrowski years. Restraint is also a goal.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 21, 2022 7:57:20 GMT -5
Without Story I'd give it an F. With Story I give it a D plus. Doesn't mean that it can't work out. Duran blossoms. Dalbec takes a step forward. Whitlock assumes E-Rod's spot in the rotation and runs with it, and Barnes morphs back into first half Barnes from last year...they could be right in the thick of things.
But even with Story I don't think it's as good as the team that was defeated by Houston last season.
I think that last year's team was an overachiever that had a lot of things break right. I think this team needed to add a Whitlock to the rotation alongside Eovaldi/Sale/ERod - don't like that ERod left for what looks like a highly reasonable contract. We all knew his results sucked last year, but that his FIP was really good and the odds are that ERod is primed for a strong season as a 29 year old in 2022.
I like Hill but he's 42 and I don't think he can be counted on to repeat the 160 innings he threw last year and sooner or later his effectiveness will wear out. Hope it's not this year. I like Paxton as a 2nd half addition, although he's a gamble. As it stands right now, right on cue Sale is out and their rotation after Eovaldi, who was healthy last year, is limited. I'm not sold on Wacha. I'm amazed how aggressive they were to get him but how passive in free agency they were until only Trevor Story was left.
I think the pen needs an experienced closer - not that it can't work if he's not - as Koji says hello. But still, I don't like going into the season with Barnes as closer after the epic meltdown he had last season. I wish there was a guy I felt comfortable with as the closer. Robles and now Diekman are the closest to being backup closers. Hope it doesn't come to that. I'm fine with the Diekman move. I worry about his control. I know that he's tough to hit, but it's a personal thing - I don't like late inning relievers who can't throw strikes.
I actually like the Strahm move better than Diekman, but only if they use Strahn in shorter stints which doesn't appear to be the case as it looks like they'll stretch him out. But at least Diekman and Strahn are better choices than using Perez in relief in a key spot like Cora had to do last year.
I'm ok with Renfroe's departure. Not happy with them not being all in on Suzuki. They don't have a RH hitting corner OF. The hope is that they're right and Duran becomes an impact player. If not they have a pedestrian OF as far as combined offense.
Story obviously replaces Renfroe's bat and is an upgrade at 2b. I'd feel better if RF was more secure but again, Duran could make that a moot point.
They will miss Schwarber's bat for the first half of the season. I do think Casas becomes the midseason LH bat.
It could work. A lot will depend upon Whitlock, Pivetta, and Houck. Two of them must become solid starters and the other must become an effective high leverage reliever. We'll see what happens.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 21, 2022 9:16:58 GMT -5
I liked the JBJ trade, Hill/Paxton signings, bullpen moves and the Story signing.
Main thing I didn’t like was the Wacha signing which didn’t make any sense.
Maybe a “B” is a tough grade given how well Bloom handled the Story deal but the pitcher signings have all been pretty risky. There are also teams like Oakland selling off assets at a discount and we didn’t take advantage.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Mar 21, 2022 9:38:43 GMT -5
I go C if what we are talking about is this coming season. Story is obviously a huge upgrade, finally a legit Pedey replacement. But… they made a mediocre OF even worse. Story has to be a hitting machine to make that a demonstrable step up.
On the pitching side, they lost ERod and Ottavino. The pitching additions do not replace that. Barnes goes into the year more dubious than last year. Paxton and Hill could easily be non-factors.
BUT… the biggest questions and ways the team might be more improved than it seems are the younger returning guys. If Whitlock and Houck are good, who cares about Hill and Paxton? If Dalbec is improved, that is huge.
So I’d say a C for how they went about trying to be better this season, but they might be better if everything falls the right way.
|
|
|
Post by bellhorndingers21 on Mar 21, 2022 9:52:34 GMT -5
Solid C+. Story was the big fish. I like the starting depth. If the bench improves by opening day so that Dalbec and JBJ/whoever they pick up can be placed in optimal situations then I'm very pleased. Bullpen is a crapshoot but they are every year.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 21, 2022 10:01:26 GMT -5
C.
Tangential. Not sure why a lot of people seem to believe Barnes is gonna revert back to first half success. If he does, i can almost guarantee it won't be for the whole year. There isn't anything that tells us that kind of success is sustainable after 6 years of him being a Sox.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 21, 2022 10:07:45 GMT -5
Going to be an optimist - called it a B. In Cora I trust.
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Mar 21, 2022 10:31:42 GMT -5
I think as things currently stand, even with Story they are worse off than last year after losing ERod and Schwarber, so I gave them a D. If this is going to be the team going into the season and no more major moves are coming, there is a lot riding on the young/unproven guys: Dalbec, Casas, Duran, Whitlock, Houck. If none of those guys are able to fill the void left by ERod and Schwarber, this team is no better than last year, and in Xander's walk year that's not really acceptable to me.
We also better hope that Kiké doesn't revert to being a league average hitter as he was for most of his time with the Dodgers.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 21, 2022 10:33:04 GMT -5
Waiting to see if there's another outfielder signed/acquired. That's pretty important to the grade, I think. Also would quibble with the notes after each grade, B in particular. The Yankees and Rays didn't necessarily get much better, imo. I get what you were going for though!
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Mar 21, 2022 10:45:51 GMT -5
I went with B mainly because I’m bullish on our AAA and bullpen depth so I didn’t think we needed more than a few free agent moves. Seabold, Crawford, Kelly, even Winchowski and Groome provide solid depth. Robles and Holland can also be contributors, so much improved over last year’s paper thin bullpen depth. I think an A would have gotten us a frontline starter and a RHH corner OF as well, but there weren’t any obvious moves available/bargain, so I don’t see any obvious regrets.
E-Rod would have been nice, but I think that money might go to extending Pivetta and seeing if we can develop anyone in-house.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Mar 21, 2022 17:39:45 GMT -5
Changes in the new CBA make salary dumps harder than the old CBA
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 21, 2022 17:43:06 GMT -5
Waiting to see if there's another outfielder signed/acquired. That's pretty important to the grade, I think. Also would quibble with the notes after each grade, B in particular. The Yankees and Rays didn't necessarily get much better, imo. I get what you were going for though! I agree - I'm still waiting for a trade or another OF pick-up. And that goes for the rest of the AL. Oak and maybe Cin are still dealing. There was word over the weekend on MLB network radio that several teams have recently reached out to Balt about Cedric Mullins. Maybe a year too early to get him or for them to deal him. He's not arb eligible til next year, but there's some thought that he's not quite what he was last year (he was the only 30-30 player in MLB last year, I believe) and they may want to sell high. Either way, they won't be contenders before he starts getting significant arb money and they'll lose him for sure in free agency. Anyway, grades to be decided in a couple of weeks.
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Mar 21, 2022 18:46:07 GMT -5
I'll say incomplete for now. I think they are a bat and two pitchers short.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Mar 21, 2022 19:12:39 GMT -5
I go C if what we are talking about is this coming season. Story is obviously a huge upgrade, finally a legit Pedey replacement. But… they made a mediocre OF even worse. Story has to be a hitting machine to make that a demonstrable step up. On the pitching side, they lost ERod and Ottavino. The pitching additions do not replace that. Barnes goes into the year more dubious than last year. Paxton and Hill could easily be non-factors. BUT… the biggest questions and ways the team might be more improved than it seems are the younger returning guys. If Whitlock and Houck are good, who cares about Hill and Paxton? If Dalbec is improved, that is huge. So I’d say a C for how they went about trying to be better this season, but they might be better if everything falls the right way. Some good thoughts on the young guys getting better, that is always the hope right. And they have a lot of guys that look like they could be good to very good. I think, and I have said this so many times I think the mods could be watching, that the way they plan on using Wacha and Hill will be asking for more quality and less quantity. If they can go thru the lineup twice effectively that is what is the hope. Then you have Houck and Whitlock doing the same thing. Shorter outings will be the rule and for guys like Wacha and Hill that will help them be more effective and healthier over the course of the season. As for Barnes going in more dubious than before I don't agree. He was having his best season ever until August then something happened so if anything we can at least hope for a return to that guy rather than what he has always been. I am optimistic he will find that form again.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Mar 21, 2022 19:15:21 GMT -5
I go C if what we are talking about is this coming season. Story is obviously a huge upgrade, finally a legit Pedey replacement. But… they made a mediocre OF even worse. Story has to be a hitting machine to make that a demonstrable step up. On the pitching side, they lost ERod and Ottavino. The pitching additions do not replace that. Barnes goes into the year more dubious than last year. Paxton and Hill could easily be non-factors. BUT… the biggest questions and ways the team might be more improved than it seems are the younger returning guys. If Whitlock and Houck are good, who cares about Hill and Paxton? If Dalbec is improved, that is huge. So I’d say a C for how they went about trying to be better this season, but they might be better if everything falls the right way. Some good thoughts on the young guys getting better, that is always the hope right. And they have a lot of guys that look like they could be good to very good. I think, and I have said this so many times I think the mods could be watching, that the way they plan on using Wacha and Hill will be asking for more quality and less quantity. If they can go thru the lineup twice effectively that is what is the hope. Then you have Houck and Whitlock doing the same thing. Shorter outings will be the rule and for guys like Wacha and Hill that will help them be more effective and healthier over the course of the season. As for Barnes going in more dubious than before I don't agree. He was having his best season ever until August then something happened so if anything we can at least hope for a return to that guy rather than what he has always been. I am optimistic he will find that form again. My Barnes concern is the sticky stuff. If that was the reason for his fall off, he might be rough. If it was fatigue, which is certainly possible, ge could be good again.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 21, 2022 19:29:10 GMT -5
E Rod has a player opt out after year two. Makes me like the idea of re- signing him a lot less.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 21, 2022 20:48:42 GMT -5
Where are we at vis-a-vis the CBT? If, say, they extend Devers around opening day and that takes them close to the $250 million threshold, then I will look differently at some of the odd misses of this offseason, like not signing Eduardo Rodriguez and not getting a RH OFer (though they still might do that).
But I don't know if the math works out that way.
|
|
|
Post by azblue on Mar 21, 2022 20:50:04 GMT -5
Premature extrapolation.
|
|
|
Post by soxinjersey on Mar 21, 2022 22:11:13 GMT -5
It's certainly fair to grade the off-season in isolation, but do we need some perspective?
If we judge the Sox on where they are now compared to twelve months ago at this time, the difference is striking: Last year, we worried about CF, RF, 2B, 1B, DH, starting pitching, and relief pitching. Now, we stress about RF and pitching, but do you remember that in April of last year Perez and Richards were our 4th & 5th starters? This off-season, I hoped CB would sign one more good pitcher, preferably a reliever, but even without Sale and Paxton we're perhaps significantly better than a year ago because we seem to have so many more viable (and improving) pieces.
In-season, one of our greatest strengths last year was Cora's patience in sticking with struggling players to allow them the time to develop confidence: Pivetta, Renfroe, Kiké, and Dalbec. This type of internal player development gives teams a chance to be good year after year.
Part of me wants shiny new objects, but another part will be happy if JBJ gets the chance Renfroe received last year (with his 2020 OPS of .645 at TB -- I know, JBJ was worse in 2021, but he'll at least be fun to watch in the field).
It's hard to believe that there won't be at least one more significant signing, but I love the acquisition of Story. Further, I like the small signings, esp. Shaw and Robles. The Sox don't make the play-offs last year without them.
To this point, I give the Sox a strong B. I can't wait for the season to start.
|
|
|
Post by pokeysreesespieces on Mar 23, 2022 0:31:40 GMT -5
I think signing a premier Free Agent like Story and a high upside reclamation starter project like Paxton probably moves you into the B rating at the very least.
Will be interesting to see how active Bloom is in season and how quickly they give guys like Casas, Duran, and Wong looks.
Looking ahead to next offseason, potential guys out the door: Eovaldi, Hill, Wacha, (Sale technically, albeit not likely), Bogaerts, Kiké, Vazquez, Plawecki, JD. 4 member of their starting lineup, and 3 of their top 5 in the order.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Mar 23, 2022 1:45:38 GMT -5
I think signing a premier Free Agent like Story and a high upside reclamation starter project like Paxton probably moves you into the B rating at the very least. Will be interesting to see how active Bloom is in season and how quickly they give guys like Casas, Duran, and Wong looks. Looking ahead to next offseason, potential guys out the door: Eovaldi, Hill, Wacha, (Sale technically, albeit not likely), Bogaerts, Kiké, Vazquez, Plawecki, JD. 4 member of their starting lineup, and 3 of their top 5 in the order. Great first post and welcome to the forum. Just a couple thoughts on your pointing out the possible turnover looming at the end of the season. For one it provides great flexibility with some serious downside at the same time. It should also mean a lot of guys are playing for their next meal and that should be a good thing as far as focus and effort goes. And I think some, as in me, might have forgotten about the Paxton signing when grading the offseason, I think that was a great contract with a lot of upside for the money. Definitely a B that could turn into an A IMO.
|
|
|
Post by pokeysreesespieces on Mar 23, 2022 2:02:26 GMT -5
I think signing a premier Free Agent like Story and a high upside reclamation starter project like Paxton probably moves you into the B rating at the very least. Will be interesting to see how active Bloom is in season and how quickly they give guys like Casas, Duran, and Wong looks. Looking ahead to next offseason, potential guys out the door: Eovaldi, Hill, Wacha, (Sale technically, albeit not likely), Bogaerts, Kiké, Vazquez, Plawecki, JD. 4 member of their starting lineup, and 3 of their top 5 in the order. Great first post and welcome to the forum. Just a couple thoughts on your pointing out the possible turnover looming at the end of the season. For one it provides great flexibility with some serious downside at the same time. It should also mean a lot of guys are playing for their next meal and that should be a good thing as far as focus and effort goes. And I think some, as in me, might have forgotten about the Paxton signing when grading the offseason, I think that was a great contract with a lot of upside for the money. Definitely a B that could turn into an A IMO. Thanks -- appreciate the warm welcome.
I believe the qualifying offer system is dead next offseason as well, per the new CBA, right?
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Mar 23, 2022 3:02:08 GMT -5
Great first post and welcome to the forum. Just a couple thoughts on your pointing out the possible turnover looming at the end of the season. For one it provides great flexibility with some serious downside at the same time. It should also mean a lot of guys are playing for their next meal and that should be a good thing as far as focus and effort goes. And I think some, as in me, might have forgotten about the Paxton signing when grading the offseason, I think that was a great contract with a lot of upside for the money. Definitely a B that could turn into an A IMO. Thanks -- appreciate the warm welcome.
I believe the qualifying offer system is dead next offseason as well, per the new CBA, right?
Pretty sure you are correct yes.
|
|
|
Post by 07redsox on Mar 23, 2022 6:24:04 GMT -5
Thanks -- appreciate the warm welcome.
I believe the qualifying offer system is dead next offseason as well, per the new CBA, right?
Pretty sure you are correct yes. Only if they agree to an International Draft by some already agreed upon date in July. If not, then the current system stays in place.
|
|
|