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4/22-4/24 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 22, 2022 16:42:37 GMT -5
Not quite ready to concede that Story is currently a better hitter than Dalbec. That was actually 453 PAs last season, not 200. Dalbec's hot streak was 110 PAs, from Aug 11 to Sep 18, 2021 BOS. Apr 2 to Aug 10, 2021 .218 .264 .391 .656 Sep 19 to Oct 3, 2021 .143 .172 .393 .565 2021 Post-season: 0 for 12, 5 ks 2022: .175 .250 .275 .525 Not a better hitter than Story. I appreciate this post and I apologize for giving Dalbec too much credit I do love his nuclear stretches though. He’s always been like this, doesn’t matter what level he’s at. A lot of ineffective play and then he’ll carry the lineup for weeks at a time
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 16:45:49 GMT -5
Man… for all this Story bashing, I’m wondering about that signing! Why pay over $100 million for a guy who’s no better than Dalbec??
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 16:48:49 GMT -5
All I freaking said was that I am not conceding that the guy with a career wRC+ 1 point less than Story is a worse hitter than Story. More power to you, most people go with the bigger sample size of proven production especially considering how this is a league where pitchers make adjustments after awhile but to each his own. Maybe Dalbec puts up better numbers than Story does. He better hope he does because he’s a 1B and there’s a guy waiting to take his spot…. I'm not sure what else to use other than Dalbec's results to judge him. But we are changing the conversation if you're talking defense now. This entire conversation started with the fact "Dalbec had a better wRC+ than Story last season." The entire debate annoys me because we're in way too small sample sizes this season to judge a damn thing and we will be for at least another month. The only stat that can possibly be relevant right now about how well anyone is hitting is xwOBA, and Dalbec is extremely fine there at .359 (with Story at .228)
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 16:49:38 GMT -5
Man… for all this Story bashing, I’m wondering about that signing! Why pay over $100 million for a guy who’s no better than Dalbec?? SMH, I knew there's a reason I blocked you.
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 16:50:05 GMT -5
Man… for all this Story bashing, I’m wondering about that signing! Why pay over $100 million for a guy who’s no better than Dalbec?? SMH, I knew there's a reason I blocked you. And yet… Wait… SMH because I am poking fun at the idea that Dalbec is nearly as good as Story? I guess if I am out on a limb thinking Story is, you know, much better, I’ll apologize.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 16:52:46 GMT -5
Not quite ready to concede that Story is currently a better hitter than Dalbec. That was actually 453 PAs last season, not 200. Dalbec's hot streak was 110 PAs, from Aug 11 to Sep 18, 2021 BOS. Apr 2 to Aug 10, 2021 .218 .264 .391 .656 Sep 19 to Oct 3, 2021 .143 .172 .393 .565 2021 Post-season: 0 for 12, 5 ks 2022: .175 .250 .275 .525 Not a better hitter than Story. Career wRC+ Dalbec 110, Story 111. 2021 wRC+ Dalbec 107, Story 100 Should we ignore the hot streak and only care about the cold streak or should we just take the entire season in total? And is Dalbec's .359 xwOBA better or worse than Story's .228 this season (only since you added 2022's stats)?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 16:53:29 GMT -5
SMH, I knew there's a reason I blocked you. And yet… Wait… SMH because I am poking fun at the idea that Dalbec is nearly as good as Story? I guess if I am out on a limb thinking Story is, you know, much better, I’ll apologize. The majority of Story's value is in his defense and speed, which we were not discussing. We were only discussing hitting.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 22, 2022 16:56:00 GMT -5
Officially added Whitlock as Saturday's starter. That was fun. I hope its not the last time.
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 16:56:16 GMT -5
And yet… Wait… SMH because I am poking fun at the idea that Dalbec is nearly as good as Story? I guess if I am out on a limb thinking Story is, you know, much better, I’ll apologize. The majority of Story's value is in his defense and speed, which we were not discussing. We were only discussing hitting. That’s not an answer. You don’t even have to prove it: if you simply assert that Dalbec is as good a hitter as Story, I’ll apologize. Is that your position?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 16:58:19 GMT -5
I believe with a healthy JD they have 6 good hitters in story, xandy, rafi, bogy, JD, Verdugo. Jury is out on Dalbec, I'm not a big believer in JBJ but he has at least shown some life and Hernandez is showing that last year may or may not have been a career year for him. They definitely have some room to improve via an acquisition but I guess I would say overall I do think this is a lineup that will get rolling. But they'd best do it sooner than later since every game is going to be key with how tough this division is. Edit: rather than edit my big mistake of counting Xander twice ill amend it this way by saying I think they have 5 good hitters. (X,Rafi,story,Verdugo, JD). The rest of my comment is still valid though about Hernandez, JBJ, Dalbec etc. Dalbec had a higher wRC+ than Story last season. This is the post that started the argument. That's what I said. Do you disagree? The majority of Story's value is in his defense and speed, which we were not discussing. We were only discussing hitting. That’s not an answer. You don’t even have to prove it: if you simply assert that Dalbec is as good a hitter as Story, I’ll apologize. Is that your position? For their careers, Story has a wRC+ 1 point higher than Dalbec's. Do you disagree?
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 17:01:29 GMT -5
Dalbec had a higher wRC+ than Story last season. This is the post that started the argument. That's what I said. Do you disagree? That’s not an answer. You don’t even have to prove it: if you simply assert that Dalbec is as good a hitter as Story, I’ll apologize. Is that your position? I haven’t checked, but I accept that math. It is one metric. Whatevs. My point was simply that the defense of Dalbec had been hyperbolic and was damning another player without justification. If Story’s worst year in 5 years is evidence that that is a reasonable comp, I apologize.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 17:02:37 GMT -5
This is the post that started the argument. That's what I said. Do you disagree? I haven’t checked, but I accept that math. Whatevs. My point was simply that the defense of Dalbec had been hyperbolic and was damning another player without justification. If Story’s worst year in 5 years is evidence that that is a reasonable comp, I apologize. Everyone is overrating Story's hitting career. He's slightly above average at best. He's not another Devers or Bogaerts.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2022 17:03:46 GMT -5
Not quite ready to concede that Story is currently a better hitter than Dalbec. That was actually 453 PAs last season, not 200. Dalbec's hot streak was 110 PAs, from Aug 11 to Sep 18, 2021 BOS. Apr 2 to Aug 10, 2021 .218 .264 .391 .656 Sep 19 to Oct 3, 2021 .143 .172 .393 .565 2021 Post-season: 0 for 12, 5 ks 2022: .175 .250 .275 .525 Not a better hitter than Story. It's true that if you don't count Dalbec's hot stretches he looks like a worse hitter. I have doubts about this methodology though. (And also it's more like 8/6-9/21 - 126 PAs, over a fifth of his entire career, plus he had a .959 OPS in 92 PAs in 2020, and he had brief hot streaks in every other month of last season as well. It all adds up to... a career 110 wRC+.)
My real question, though, is why the point of departure for this conversation isn't their respective projections, rather than past performance of two players at very different stages of their careers. According to those Dalbec is a ~100 wRC+ guy, and Story is more like 108. Feel free to disagree with those - I personally think it's low-balling Dalbec slightly - but that seems like the place to start.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 22, 2022 17:04:56 GMT -5
I haven’t checked, but I accept that math. Whatevs. My point was simply that the defense of Dalbec had been hyperbolic and was damning another player without justification. If Story’s worst year in 5 years is evidence that that is a reasonable comp, I apologize. Everyone is overrating Story's hitting career. He's slightly above average at best. He's not another Devers or Bogaerts. He’s got 4 of 6 years with an OPS+ of 120 or higher, just stop with this hyperbolic “slightly above average at best” nonsense. Last year can be described as slightly above average. His 2nd year a sophomore slump (where he still had counting stats). Every other year he’s been a downright very good hitter. Not elite, but very good Nobody is saying he’s Devers or Bogaerts with the bat btw. I’m just saying he’s shown a hell of a lot more than Dalbec has.
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 17:07:24 GMT -5
I haven’t checked, but I accept that math. Whatevs. My point was simply that the defense of Dalbec had been hyperbolic and was damning another player without justification. If Story’s worst year in 5 years is evidence that that is a reasonable comp, I apologize. Everyone is overrating Story's hitting career. He's slightly above average at best. He's not another Devers or Bogaerts. I definitely never said that. How has he jumped from not being Dalbec to not being Devers? I’m agnostic on Story. Now… the wRC+ is especially interesting in his case, and we shall see, because Coors is the actual example given by MLB for their weighting. So he is hurt by playing for the Rockies. Perhaps his numbers were inflated there. But if he performs similarly with the Sox, he will get an adjustment bonus. Anyway, my overall point is that you seem to be going to the mat for Dalbec, which is fine… but based as much on one brief explosion last season that boosted his overall career numbers.
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Post by e on Apr 22, 2022 17:09:06 GMT -5
Everyone is overrating Story's hitting career. He's slightly above average at best. He's not another Devers or Bogaerts. He’s got 4 of 6 years with an OPS+ of 120 or higher, just stop with this hyperbolic “slightly above average at best” nonsense. Last year can be described as slightly above average. His 2nd year a sophomore slump (where he still had counting stats). Every other year he’s been a downright very good hitter. Not elite, but very good One of those 4 years was not a full year, he only played 97 games. Also he has consistently outperformed his expected stats(.361 wOBA vs .338 xwOBA), except for last year. I think its fair to say his hitting has been slightly overrated. He'll be a solid hitter, I have no doubt, but nothing close to the Xander tier of middle infield hitting.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 22, 2022 17:09:14 GMT -5
A lot of hand wringing and teeth gnashing about the offense but just be thankful (once again) that you're not an MFY fan. Only the Orioles and Royals have a worse offense thus far in the AL (and BAL should have been relegated to the minors years ago).
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 17:10:30 GMT -5
Everyone is overrating Story's hitting career. He's slightly above average at best. He's not another Devers or Bogaerts. He’s got 4 of 6 years with an OPS+ of 120 or higher, just stop with this hyperbolic “slightly above average at best” nonsense. Steamer projects Story to have a 99 this year. Dalbec a 102.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2022 17:11:01 GMT -5
This is the post that started the argument. That's what I said. Do you disagree? I haven’t checked, but I accept that math. It is one metric. Whatevs. My point was simply that the defense of Dalbec had been hyperbolic and was damning another player without justification. If Story’s worst year in 5 years is evidence that that is a reasonable comp, I apologize. Story is certainly a more valuable player than Dalbec. He plays a much more important defensive position, is better at it, and adds value on the basepaths. He's probably a slightly better hitter than Dalbec, but Dalbec's expectations as an offensive player have wider error bars than Story, and it's really not crazy to argue, as jimed is, that they're comparable hitters.
Look at it this way: Pedroia had a career wRC+ of 115. Kevin Millar had a career wRC+ of 112. Very comparable - slight edge to Pedroia. But Pedroia had a career WAR total of 45, and Millar had a total of 9. Now substitute Story for Pedroia and Dalbec for Millar and that's more or less what we're talking about.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 17:14:05 GMT -5
Listen and I'll shut up. What started this entire thing is when I said that I'm not ready to concede that Story is (currently) a better hitter than Dalbec. That isn't a comment worth arguing over when their career wRC+ is 1 point different. If you can't accept that, you're being unreasonable.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 22, 2022 17:15:00 GMT -5
He’s got 4 of 6 years with an OPS+ of 120 or higher, just stop with this hyperbolic “slightly above average at best” nonsense. Last year can be described as slightly above average. His 2nd year a sophomore slump (where he still had counting stats). Every other year he’s been a downright very good hitter. Not elite, but very good One of those 4 years was not a full year, he only played 97 games. Also he has consistently outperformed his expected stats(.361 wOBA vs .338 xwOBA), except for last year. I think its fair to say his hitting has been slightly overrated. He'll be a solid hitter, I have no doubt, but nothing close to the Xander tier of middle infield hitting. If we are giving credit to Bobby for his 450 at bat 105 OPS+ Then we should give Trevor credit for his 450 AB OPS+ Of 122 as a rookie Now that we’ve moved into projections instead of what’s actually happened to establish these guys abilities as hitters I don’t see the point in further debating this
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 17:17:40 GMT -5
Well, I will put this in the wait-and-see file. I guess there are two views of Dalbec: that his hot stretches represent his potential or that those stretches are closer to fluky (or put differently that he may maintain bursts but won’t ever stabilize and extend them).
I will say outright that my preferred scenario is Dalbec in another uniform next season. I want Devers at 3b for the next 10 years and Casas at 1st. If Dalbec is a decent player, he’s more valuable as a trade piece to improve an area of weakness than as depth at what I hope will be the two strongest pieces for a few years (at least until Yorke and Mayer fill the middle).
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 17:19:34 GMT -5
One of those 4 years was not a full year, he only played 97 games. Also he has consistently outperformed his expected stats(.361 wOBA vs .338 xwOBA), except for last year. I think its fair to say his hitting has been slightly overrated. He'll be a solid hitter, I have no doubt, but nothing close to the Xander tier of middle infield hitting. If we are giving credit to Bobby for his 450 at bat 105 OPS+ Then we should give Trevor credit for his 450 AB OPS+ Of 122 as a rookie Now that we’ve moved into projections instead of what’s actually happened to establish these guys abilities as hitters I don’t see the point in further debating this So what are we supposed to use to judge Dalbec if we're not allowed to use last season? You do not agree that judging current ability favors judging most recent performance above all else?
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 22, 2022 17:21:24 GMT -5
I absolutely love Whitlock as the hammer out of the pen , but I am hoping Saturday is start of a HOF starting pitcher career for him and he is never back in the pen. Use Hill out of the pen ir someone else
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 22, 2022 17:22:37 GMT -5
People fighting over Dalbec and Story meanwhile Vazquez has a .275 xwOBA over his last 700 PAs.
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