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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 17:24:41 GMT -5
People fighting over Dalbec and Story meanwhile Vazquez has a .275 xwOBA over his last 700 PAs. Ooof… yeah. But what to do?
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 22, 2022 17:25:33 GMT -5
People fighting over Dalbec and Story meanwhile Vazquez has a .275 xwOBA over his last 700 PAs. P excited that we are nearing the end of the Vazquez era, not gonna lie
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 22, 2022 17:27:38 GMT -5
If we are giving credit to Bobby for his 450 at bat 105 OPS+ Then we should give Trevor credit for his 450 AB OPS+ Of 122 as a rookie Now that we’ve moved into projections instead of what’s actually happened to establish these guys abilities as hitters I don’t see the point in further debating this So what are we supposed to use to judge Dalbec if we're not allowed to use last season? You do not agree that judging current ability favors judging most recent performance above all else? When did I say you couldn’t use last season? That person tried to discredit one of the Story’s good seasons due to # of AB’s and it’s pretty much the exact same sample size as the one being used for Dalbec listen I hope Dalbec has 4 120 OPS+ seasons. That would be terrific. Highly doubt that’s gonna happen if he can’t figure out how to hit right handed power pitching
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 22, 2022 17:28:11 GMT -5
People fighting over Dalbec and Story meanwhile Vazquez has a .275 xwOBA over his last 700 PAs. P excited that we are nearing the end of the Vazquez era, not gonna lie Soon. I wonder what they’re gonna do
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 22, 2022 17:29:01 GMT -5
People fighting over Dalbec and Story meanwhile Vazquez has a .275 xwOBA over his last 700 PAs. Ooof… yeah. But what to do? Complain about it in this thread. Is that not what we’re doing?
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Post by manfred on Apr 22, 2022 17:32:25 GMT -5
Ooof… yeah. But what to do? Complain about it in this thread. Is that not what we’re doing? It does take the sad out of things.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 17:32:34 GMT -5
So what are we supposed to use to judge Dalbec if we're not allowed to use last season? You do not agree that judging current ability favors judging most recent performance above all else? When did I say you couldn’t use last season? That person tried to discredit one of the Story’s good seasons due to # of AB’s and it’s pretty much the exact same sample size as the one being used for Dalbec listen I hope Dalbec has 4 120 OPS+ seasons. That would be terrific. Highly doubt that’s gonna happen if he can’t figure out how to hit right handed power pitching All he needs to do is limit his cold streaks and keep his k-rate down to be way better than that. He does have that potential because he did it for more than 100 PAs in a row.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 22, 2022 17:36:35 GMT -5
I haven’t checked, but I accept that math. Whatevs. My point was simply that the defense of Dalbec had been hyperbolic and was damning another player without justification. If Story’s worst year in 5 years is evidence that that is a reasonable comp, I apologize. Everyone is overrating Story's hitting career. He's slightly above average at best. He's not another Devers or Bogaerts. You used "Bobby Dalbec" and "one of the best hitters in baseball" in the same sentence, and you're accusing other people of overrating someone's hitting? Alrighty then
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2022 17:40:59 GMT -5
Everyone is overrating Story's hitting career. He's slightly above average at best. He's not another Devers or Bogaerts. You used "Bobby Dalbec" and "one of the best hitters in baseball" in the same sentence, and you're accusing other people of overrating someone's hitting? Alrighty then Do you really not remember when he carried the team last season when hitting exactly like one of the best hitters in baseball? He was over 1.200 OPS in August. It's not just a lucky streak when it's more than a month.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2022 17:53:29 GMT -5
Everyone is overrating Story's hitting career. He's slightly above average at best. He's not another Devers or Bogaerts. You used "Bobby Dalbec" and "one of the best hitters in baseball" in the same sentence, and you're accusing other people of overrating someone's hitting? Alrighty then He definitely hit like one of the best hitters in baseball for a quarter of last season. That's indisputable.
He also has a 128 wRC+ in his last 324 PAs, and a 149 wRC+ in his last 200 PAs, and it seems to me reasonable to give any mlb hitter at least a couple hundred PAs to adjust to the league. Honestly, I don't get the pessimism about Dalbec. He's shown an awful lot of promise in less than 600 PAs. It's like everyone anchored their opinions last June and haven't updated since then.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2022 17:54:36 GMT -5
People fighting over Dalbec and Story meanwhile Vazquez has a .275 xwOBA over his last 700 PAs. So, who’s the catcher next year? Because Vazquez is used up, as are most catcher’s his age. Because they have no MLB regular candidates in AAA and AA. Also, curious on the starter plan. And RF or CF ifDuran makes the leap - and if he doesn’t Please don’t tell me another “bridge year” because “The Plan” was supposed to be those end with the huge budget bump we’ll get in the off-season.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 22, 2022 17:55:57 GMT -5
Dalbec is doing fine. He’s been getting very unlucky so far. Only real knack is that he chases too much. He’s going to whiff now matter what but he needs to stop expanding his zone. His batted ball data is pretty positive though.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 22, 2022 17:56:48 GMT -5
People fighting over Dalbec and Story meanwhile Vazquez has a .275 xwOBA over his last 700 PAs. So, who’s the catcher next year? Because Vazquez is used up, as are most catcher’s his age. Because they have no MLB regular candidates in AAA and AA. Also, curious on the starter plan. And RF or CF ifDuran makes the leap - and if he doesn’t Please don’t tell me another “bridge year” because “The Plan” was supposed to be those end with the huge budget bump we’ll get in the off-season. Murphy please
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 22, 2022 18:04:14 GMT -5
You used "Bobby Dalbec" and "one of the best hitters in baseball" in the same sentence, and you're accusing other people of overrating someone's hitting? Alrighty then Do you really not remember when he carried the team last season when hitting exactly like one of the best hitters in baseball? He was over 1.200 OPS in August. It's not just a lucky streak when it's more than a month. Of course I remember it, do you remember when he OPS'ed .541 in July, and sub-.700 in April and May? Cherrypicking the one month of the year he was extremely good does disservice to the fact that his entire professional career, majors and minors, has been highlighted by wild inconsistency and that the rest of the year was pretty rough. While it's not impossible that he can improve on these issues, the fact that he's almost 27 and has yet to do so makes it wildly foolish to assume that he will. The problem with trying to analyze Dalbec, both interpreting his past results and projecting his future, is you have to weigh whether or not it's worth the prolonged spells of being an actively bad hitter to get to that one stretch of high level production. Most of the time, it's not. No one is saying that he should be demoted or cut (although I am a strong proponent of trading him if he still carries value to those who value his one good month the way you do), but he also shouldn't be considered an answer and you acting like he's still developing in any meaningful way outside of minor adjustments is a pretty absurd take given the level of experience he has at this point. Again, not impossible that he is but highly unlikely in general. But we get it, you really like Dalbec, almost as much as the dude who used to come on here and complain about him being underrated a few years ago, and you're willing to die on this hill. And I won't be one to tell you to submit to groupthink. But when you are the lone voice (or close to it) against an overwhelming majority, including those with much more baseball knowledge cache than me both among the leaders of SP and outside of the Red Sox sphere entirely, it's probably worth at least reflecting on your position. You can keep citing two very narrowly scoping stats all you want, you're not the only one who can access those numbers so you're not really providing information that many of us have never seen before.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2022 18:13:10 GMT -5
People fighting over Dalbec and Story meanwhile Vazquez has a .275 xwOBA over his last 700 PAs. So, who’s the catcher next year? Because Vazquez is used up, as are most catcher’s his age. Because they have no MLB regular candidates in AAA and AA. Also, curious on the starter plan. And RF or CF ifDuran makes the leap - and if he doesn’t Please don’t tell me another “bridge year” because “The Plan” was supposed to be those end with the huge budget bump we’ll get in the off-season. The Plan has been to field a consistently competitive team. People just like to call seasons "bridge years" when the grass looks greener further down the road.
As for who the catcher's gonna be... good question. I feel like Vazquez, Wong, and Hernandez could all be decent backup options next year. On the free agent market there's Wilson Contreras, Omar Narvaez, Tucker Barnhart, Mike Zunino... some respectable options.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 22, 2022 18:15:38 GMT -5
I'm not going to sit here and say I'm rooting against dalbec or I want him dealt. I just really have no idea what type of player he is. I'm sorry I kind of sparked a bit of a poop storm when I made my comment on 5 good hitters. I still don't think I was wrong by saying the jury is still out on Dalbec. I'm certainly okay with the sox continuing to give him a chance to prove whether he's closer to the guy we saw in the first part of the season or the guy we saw in the 2nd half. I suspect somewhere in between is the answer, which is to say he's probably a streaky hitter who can do some real damage when he's got his timing going right. That is certainly a valuable major league caliber player in my mind.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2022 18:17:01 GMT -5
Do you really not remember when he carried the team last season when hitting exactly like one of the best hitters in baseball? He was over 1.200 OPS in August. It's not just a lucky streak when it's more than a month. Of course I remember it, do you remember when he OPS'ed .541 in July, and sub-.700 in April and May? Cherrypicking the one month of the year he was extremely good does disservice to the fact that his entire professional career, majors and minors, has been highlighted by wild inconsistency and that the rest of the year was pretty rough. While it's not impossible that he can improve on these issues, the fact that he's almost 27 and has yet to do so makes it wildly foolish to assume that he will.
The problem with trying to analyze Dalbec, both interpreting his past results and projecting his future, is you have to weigh whether or not it's worth the prolonged spells of being an actively bad hitter to get to that one stretch of high level production. Most of the time, it's not. No one is saying that he should be demoted or cut (although I am a strong proponent of trading him if he still carries value to those who value his one good month the way you do), but he also shouldn't be considered an answer and you acting like he's still developing in any meaningful way outside of minor adjustments is a pretty absurd take given the level of experience he has at this point. Again, not impossible that he is but highly unlikely in general. But we get it, you really like Dalbec, almost as much as the dude who used to come on here and complain about him being underrated a few years ago, and you're willing to die on this hill. And I won't be one to tell you to submit to groupthink. But when you are the lone voice (or close to it) against an overwhelming majority, including those with much more baseball knowledge cache than me both among the leaders of SP and outside of the Red Sox sphere entirely, it's probably worth at least reflecting on your position. You can keep citing two very narrowly scoping stats all you want, you're not the only one who can access those numbers so you're not really providing information that many of us have never seen before. So, like, again... 149 wRC+ in his last 200 PAs. 110 for his career. What exactly would it take to show signs of "improvement" for you?
I don't know what people are seeing when they read jimed's comments on Dalbec, but everything he's said has been totally empirically sound.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 22, 2022 18:19:11 GMT -5
How is this happening? This offense sucks!
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 22, 2022 18:19:50 GMT -5
Nice little hit parade here against Kluber.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2022 18:21:10 GMT -5
Story is the new engine.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 22, 2022 18:23:04 GMT -5
Joe Castig reports that the Sox diagnosed JBJ with an astigmatism in his right eye during spring training. Thinks it was a reason he fouled off mistake pitches last season.
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 22, 2022 18:23:44 GMT -5
Booby has made hard contact lately
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 22, 2022 18:26:20 GMT -5
I don't know if one of the Dalbec boosters on this thread is Tom Gordon but he's doing color with Joe and he picked Bobby as his impact guy tonight. Got good wood on the first one but no soup.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 22, 2022 18:27:06 GMT -5
Joe Castig reports that the Sox diagnosed JBJ with an astigmatism in his right eye during spring training. Thinks it was a reason he fouled off mistake pitches last season. That’s interesting. If he can just be career average Jackie, then it lengthens the lineup nicely. I pull especially hard for him every time he’s in the batter’s box.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 22, 2022 18:27:59 GMT -5
Not sure how I feel about this whole Wander Franco thing.
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