SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 23, 2022 19:06:57 GMT -5
Yeah, this not only can but definitely WILL change over the course of the year. At the start of last season, I'd have done a double-take if you told me they weren't going to protect Ward or Jimenez but were going to protect Crawford, for example. That's the fun in it, I think. Absolutely, the Rule 5 thread is always one of my favorites for that reason!
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on May 23, 2022 19:14:43 GMT -5
Koss feels strongly like a guy that gets traded for a reliever That is one of the reasons why I started the thread now. All of the Rule 5 eligibles I listed can not be protected, so some may be used as trade chips over the next 2 months. If we know who the Red Sox really want to hold on to, then we have a better idea who they might be willing to part with. Unless it is 2016 Chris Sale with years of controllability, Devers after 2020 with three years of controllability, or that type of player under those term I would not trade Bello, as 7 years of Bello at minimum plus arb maybe more valuable (re-signing is a separate, additional transaction). Teams need a core of young, controllable players at minimum salary to compete without have to rebuild every thre or four years. They do become trade chips but their value is depressed by being Rule 5 eligible because the team trading for them has to have a 40-man spot for them -- a 40-man spot they could use to pick one of the top half-dozen or so players in the whole draft. So the guy they're trading for has to be demonstrably better than one of the top players in the whole Rule 5 draft in order to give up anything of value for him. Of course, that is tempered by the fact that they wouldn't have to keep the player on their active roster for a year if they trade for him before rosters are set but it still limits the amount you can get back for a Rule 5 eligible prospect. Teams can also effectively trade for Rule 5 draft picks as the draft is happening, so a team's own pick doesn't have to be high for them to get one of the top exposed kids.
As an example from the Sox, SD had to give up two Rule 5 eligible prospects ranked in the 20s or so in their system to get back two months of late-career Mitchie Two Bags. I would think only the top three or four guys that the Sox wind up protecting would bring much back of lasting value but if Koss and Bonaci brought back a useful big-league rental at the deadline, I'd be down. [N.B. I think the SD system at that time was much stronger than the current Sox system.]
Ultimately, I think that the way that the Sox roster is currently constructed, with a bunch of guys at the bottom of the 40-man who aren't locks to be on it at the end of the year, it's possible that a lot of prospects get protected and not many slam dunk picks will be left exposed.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 23, 2022 21:57:11 GMT -5
That is one of the reasons why I started the thread now. All of the Rule 5 eligibles I listed can not be protected, so some may be used as trade chips over the next 2 months. If we know who the Red Sox really want to hold on to, then we have a better idea who they might be willing to part with. Unless it is 2016 Chris Sale with years of controllability, Devers after 2020 with three years of controllability, or that type of player under those term I would not trade Bello, as 7 years of Bello at minimum plus arb maybe more valuable (re-signing is a separate, additional transaction). Teams need a core of young, controllable players at minimum salary to compete without have to rebuild every thre or four years. They do become trade chips but their value is depressed by being Rule 5 eligible because the team trading for them has to have a 40-man spot for them -- a 40-man spot they could use to pick one of the top half-dozen or so players in the whole draft. So the guy they're trading for has to be demonstrably better than one of the top players in the whole Rule 5 draft in order to give up anything of value for him. Of course, that is tempered by the fact that they wouldn't have to keep the player on their active roster for a year if they trade for him before rosters are set but it still limits the amount you can get back for a Rule 5 eligible prospect. Teams can also effectively trade for Rule 5 draft picks as the draft is happening, so a team's own pick doesn't have to be high for them to get one of the top exposed kids.
As an example from the Sox, SD had to give up two Rule 5 eligible prospects ranked in the 20s or so in their system to get back two months of late-career Mitchie Two Bags. I would think only the top three or four guys that the Sox wind up protecting would bring much back of lasting value but if Koss and Bonaci brought back a useful big-league rental at the deadline, I'd be down. [N.B. I think the SD system at that time was much stronger than the current Sox system.]
Ultimately, I think that the way that the Sox roster is currently constructed, with a bunch of guys at the bottom of the 40-man who aren't locks to be on it at the end of the year, it's possible that a lot of prospects get protected and not many slam dunk picks will be left exposed.
Exactly, the Red Sox have 10 free agents (I estimate three will be re-signed). They also have as many as 5 non-free agents that have a chance to be dropped from the 40-man roster, so I estimate about 12 spots to be available to add Rule 5 prospects and sign free agents. I agree that should be enough to cover most of the players good enough to be taken in Rule 5. Even though the Rule 5 list is long, Bloom will not trade a Rule 5 player for less than what the Red Sox value him for even thought that player could get taken in Rule 5. The acquiring team would need to keep the player taken in the draft on the 26-man for an entire year. It is better to risk a player getting drafted than to trade for less than their value. Bloom has made few bad trades IMO. Some we will have to wait a few years before we can see whether they are a win or loss, but most have been good so far IMO.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on May 23, 2022 22:32:34 GMT -5
I agree with all that, although any departing FAs that are important contributors to the big league club are going to be replaced by other established MLB players, so those spots are not going to be affected by Rule 5 guys, whether they're drafted from outside or protected from within. It's the 8-10 guys on the margins of the 40-man that are going to figure into that calculus.
|
|
|
Post by keninten on May 23, 2022 23:29:26 GMT -5
Does anyone know how many rule 5 players make it through a year with the drafting team?
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on May 24, 2022 11:11:29 GMT -5
Does anyone know how many rule 5 players make it through a year with the drafting team? 2020: 6 - remained with drafting team 8 - returned to original team 4 - member of 3rd team via trade, waivers or release 2019: 3 - remained with drafting team 4 - returned to original team 1 - member of 3rd team via trade, waivers or release 3 - returned then traded back to drafting team 2018: 3 - remained with drafting team 11 - returned to original team (several players traded prior to return) 2017: 4 - remained with drafting team 9 - returned to original team 4 - member of 3rd team via trade, waivers or release 1 - returned then traded back to drafting team It's a bit complicated as rule-5 players being traded or returned, then traded back to the drafting team, is fairly common. Not shown above are several trades which eventually resulted in the player being returned to the original team. But the answer is: over the past 4 MLB rule-5 drafts, 16 of the 61 drafted players remained with the drafting team until the 25/26 man roster requirement had passed (this can be more than a year if placed on the DL/IL). If you include 3rd-party teams, the answer is 25 out of 61. If you add being traded back to the drafting team, the number is 29 out of 61. (Note: if the player made it through the year but was still returned due to DL/IL status, I categorized then as being returned)
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on May 24, 2022 11:21:57 GMT -5
It's interesting to see how helpful the rule-5 drafts has been for the Red Sox as they retained two players (Whitlock and Arauz) over the past 4 MLB drafts while not having a single player claimed of their own. Meanwhile, the Yankees have had 10 players claimed, losing 3, while not claiming a single player.
On the other hand, this can be looked at as a disparity of depth among upper level prospects between the two systems - but I prefer to look at it in a glass half full kind of way.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 24, 2022 12:25:13 GMT -5
Does anyone know how many rule 5 players make it through a year with the drafting team? 2020: 6 - remained with drafting team 8 - returned to original team 4 - member of 3rd team via trade, waivers or release 2019: 3 - remained with drafting team 4 - returned to original team 1 - member of 3rd team via trade, waivers or release 3 - returned then traded back to drafting team 2018: 3 - remained with drafting team 11 - returned to original team (several players traded prior to return) 2017: 4 - remained with drafting team 9 - returned to original team 4 - member of 3rd team via trade, waivers or release 1 - returned then traded back to drafting team It's a bit complicated as rule-5 players being traded or returned, then traded back to the drafting team, is fairly common. Not shown above are several trades which eventually resulted in the player being returned to the original team. But the answer is: over the past 4 MLB rule-5 drafts, 16 of the 61 drafted players remained with the drafting team until the 25/26 man roster requirement had passed (this can be more than a year if placed on the DL/IL). If you include 3rd-party teams, the answer is 25 out of 61. If you add being traded back to the drafting team, the number is 29 out of 61. (Note: if the player made it through the year but was still returned due to DL/IL status, I categorized then as being returned) Great data. Of course, keep in mind that 2020 was the first year with 26-man rosters all season. As I've mentioned, the 26-man roster both makes it easier to carry a Rule 5 player in MLB, but also makes it harder to protect minor leaguers than previous because there was no corresponding expansion of the 40-man roster to account for an additional spot thereon being used for the majors. So we don't REALLY know how this is going to play out with a 26-man roster yet. Maybe 2020 is indicative. Maybe it's not and it was a good class (possible - Whitlock has the potential to be the best R5 pick in a long time, and heck, a guy taken in the second round of the draft stuck in Tyler Wells!). But I think we'll need to recalibrate the standard of who should be protected based on changes both to the active roster and, indirectly, the reserve list. One or two more years of data will help.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on May 24, 2022 12:58:20 GMT -5
How far back do you need to go to find a team that got 5 WAR out of a Rule 5 pick? Whitlock will get there, which might end up giving us a distorted sense of how big the stakes are in the draft. I think you have to go back to Johan Santana? Josh Hamilton gave the Reds 2.5 WAR and then was traded after a year, but he's a bizarre case to begin with.
The Red Sox didn't actually benefit from taking Arauz.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on May 24, 2022 13:54:02 GMT -5
How far back do you need to go to find a team that got 5 WAR out of a Rule 5 pick? Whitlock will get there, which might end up giving us a distorted sense of how big the stakes are in the draft. I think you have to go back to Johan Santana? Josh Hamilton gave the Reds 2.5 WAR and then was traded after a year, but he's a bizarre case to begin with. The Red Sox didn't actually benefit from taking Arauz. Ryan Pressly is 8.7 career. It is split, though, and MN got 3.7, so not quite the answer, but still a good overall pickup. Add: but they traded him to Houston and got about 1.5 WAR out of the return to date so… close?
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 25, 2022 0:30:33 GMT -5
-Odubel Herrera was probably the best Rule 5 pick of the 2010's. Currently a 13.3 WAR for the Phillies, two 4.0+ bWAR campaigns.
-Delino DeShields Jr. falls slightly below your 5 WAR (4.9 bWAR for Texas), but that's a good pick. And then he helped them get Corey Kluber, which seemed like a good idea at the time.
-Hector Rondon had a 4.0 bWAR for the Cubs, plus he helped them win a title with a decent run in the playoffs in 2016.
-Going back a little further you have Joakim Soria and Dan Uggla
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 25, 2022 1:45:21 GMT -5
Shane Victorino definitely is up there for rule 5 success stories
|
|
|
Post by 1toolplayer on May 25, 2022 8:33:30 GMT -5
Tigers got 2 wins out of a 22 yr old Akil Baddoo last year. He's come back down to earth this year in 50 ABs, but at 23, hard to not think as an useful rule 5 pick.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 25, 2022 10:27:57 GMT -5
Honestly might be smart to DFA Hernandez now before he inevitably gets hot like he did last year Lol, he went 4 for 5 with a HR last night, but his OPS is still .477. I think the Red Sox are so short on catching they do not want to risk loosing him, but Ronaldo Hernandez would be the first player I would DFA if a spot was needed and no other way too obtain it was available.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,196
|
Post by cdj on May 25, 2022 11:22:00 GMT -5
Honestly might be smart to DFA Hernandez now before he inevitably gets hot like he did last year Lol, he went 4 for 5 with a HR last night, but his OPS is still .477. I think the Red Sox are so short on catching they do not want to risk loosing him, but Ronaldo Hernandez would be the first player I would DFA if a spot was needed and no other way too obtain it was available. Well, here we go. OPS will be around .700 in a month, watch. He did this in Portland last year
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on May 25, 2022 11:42:56 GMT -5
Shane Victorino definitely is up there for rule 5 success stories Going back a generation, George Bell was a big time Rule 5 snag by the Blue Jays from the Phillies organization. He was the 1987 AL MVP, two years after he karate kicked renowned headhunter Bruce Kison (then with the Sox) in the groin area. Eventually after signing with the Cubs as a free agent, they sent him across town to the White Sox in a deal for young Sammy Sosa.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2022 13:26:55 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 7, 2022 11:32:26 GMT -5
Checking in on this 6 weeks later (changes noted in bold):
Locks: Casas Walter Murphy Rafaela
Likely: Ward
Maybe - going to depend on how they finish, and some might be on the 40 already by then (thinking Kelly, Ort): Fitzgerald (down) Bazardo German W. Gonzalez Kelly Ort Politi Shugart Wallace Paulino (up)
Unlikely: Jimenez (down) Feltman (down) Bonaci Hamilton Koss E. Lopez Santos Cepeda (added) Bastardo (added) Cellucci (added) L. De La Rosa (added) Granberg (added) Northcut (added)
(Removed from mention at this point) Cottam Marrero
Extremely unlikely, but worth mentioning in case by come miracle he comes back like he hasn't missed a beat: Song
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 7, 2022 12:21:02 GMT -5
For about six seconds I wondered how Fitzy's unvaxxed status might affect his likelihood of being drafted. Then I realized that most draft picks are stashed at the back of the roster for most of the season anyway, so a backup UT guy missing a TOR series would be unlikely to make a difference to the drafting club.
I also wonder whether Fitzy's innovative training techniques will make an impression on potential drafting clubs, in addition to his ability to play all over the field and his decent numbers at the plate (.788 AAA OPS in 365 PA, average K rate, below average BB). Seems like a guy the Rays might like.
|
|
|
Post by bellhorndingers21 on Jul 7, 2022 12:33:07 GMT -5
For about six seconds I wondered how Fitzy's unvaxxed status might affect his likelihood of being drafted. Then I realized that most draft picks are stashed at the back of the roster for most of the season anyway, so a backup UT guy missing a TOR series would be unlikely to make a difference to the drafting club. I also wonder whether Fitzy's innovative training techniques will make an impression on potential drafting clubs, in addition to his ability to play all over the field and his decent numbers at the plate (.788 AAA OPS in 365 PA, average K rate, below average BB). Seems like a guy the Rays might like. I imagine the Rays will have quite the 40 man crunch as well with that farm system.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 7, 2022 13:12:10 GMT -5
Fitzgerald hitting .227/.293/.398 since April 20 (after the first full series of the year) is going to hurt his chances of being picked in R5 more than his vaxx status. At the very least it makes him expendable if he doesn't figure things out.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 7, 2022 16:56:21 GMT -5
Fitzgerald hitting .227/.293/.398 since April 20 (after the first full series of the year) is going to hurt his chances of being picked in R5 more than his vaxx status. At the very least it makes him expendable if he doesn't figure things out. Fitzgerald has hit poorly, but do you think his solid defense at so many positions makes him valuable enough to protect? It seems his offense has fallen off a cliff, but hasn’t he a defensive player of the year a couple years ago?
|
|
|
Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 7, 2022 17:29:58 GMT -5
Noteworthy to add, the Sox don’t have any one inning relievers on the 40 who aren’t in Boston. Have they had any over the last couple years?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 7, 2022 19:24:03 GMT -5
Fitzgerald hitting .227/.293/.398 since April 20 (after the first full series of the year) is going to hurt his chances of being picked in R5 more than his vaxx status. At the very least it makes him expendable if he doesn't figure things out. Fitzgerald has hit poorly, but do you think his solid defense at so many positions makes him valuable enough to protect? It seems his offense has fallen off a cliff, but hasn’t he a defensive player of the year a couple years ago? I would not protect him. Right now he looks like a bench bat at best, more likely an up-and-down guy. Noteworthy to add, the Sox don’t have any one inning relievers on the 40 who aren’t in Boston. Have they had any over the last couple years? Not sure what you mean. Valdez and Hernandez are in Worcester, and they've typically had relievers in AAA on the 40-man.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Jul 7, 2022 20:12:03 GMT -5
Feltman wanted to be left exposed in the rule 5. Probably gonna get his wish.
|
|
|