SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by pappyman99 on Aug 22, 2022 7:28:03 GMT -5
Kind of surprised they didn’t tweak the rule 5 rules at all temporarily due to the lost Covid season
Is the logic for not protecting someone like bonaci that another team Is unlikely to put a low A guy on their MLB roster the whole season?
Only asking because he is a guy I currently like given his approach at the plate this year
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 22, 2022 9:09:20 GMT -5
Kind of surprised they didn’t tweak the rule 5 rules at all temporarily due to the lost Covid season Is the logic for not protecting someone like bonaci that another team Is unlikely to put a low A guy on their MLB roster the whole season? Only asking because he is a guy I currently like given his approach at the plate this year That would probably have had to be collectively bargained, and neither side would have deemed it worth using chips on. And yes, Bonaci is way too far away to use a 40-man spot on, and very unlikely to stick even if he were to be selected. Usually Double-A is the threshold, MAYBE High-A in certain cases.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 6, 2022 13:52:43 GMT -5
My Rule 5 list as of Sept 6 in no particular order:
1) Triston Casas (will not be R5 - already on 40-man) 2) Brandon Walter 3) Chris Murphy 4) Ceddanne Rafaela 5) Thaddeus Ward 6) Enmanuel Valdez 7) Frank German
Maybe
8) Wilyer Abreau 9) Ryan Fernandez
I feel these players are too good to risk loosing. I think there will be space for all 9 to be added.
I also think Wacha will be re-signed to an extension. I think the following players will be traded, DFA, or otherwise removed from the 40-man: Darwinzon, Rolando Hernandez, Dalbec, Familia, and possibly Brasier.
|
|
|
Post by gator39 on Sept 6, 2022 14:51:52 GMT -5
I would add A.J. Politi to the list of possibles
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 6, 2022 14:59:05 GMT -5
I'm about where y'all are.
Locks: Walter Murphy Rafaela Ward Valdez German Abreu (I can't imagine they trade for him then expose him)
Maybe/potentially picked: R. Fernandez Paulino W. Gonzalez Politi Shugart
Unlikely: Wallace Fitzgerald Jimenez Feltman Bonaci Hamilton Koss E. Lopez Santos Bastardo L. De La Rosa Granberg Northcut
I'll add that Bazardo's roster spot might depend on this audition. Ort too.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Sept 6, 2022 15:15:34 GMT -5
Low-A position players aren't picked too often, but I'll be nervous on draft day if they leave a guy as good as Paulino exposed.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 6, 2022 15:34:27 GMT -5
I would add A.J. Politi to the list of possibles I agree that Politi has earned the spot, and I would have had him on my list, but am not sure how many 40-man spot will be left. Hernandez was extended today to presumably play CF. If Wacha and Bogaerts are extended, the number of spots left will start to dwindle.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 6, 2022 15:36:20 GMT -5
I'm about where y'all are. Locks: Walter Murphy Rafaela Ward Valdez German Abreu (I can't imagine they trade for him then expose him) Maybe/potentially picked: R. Fernandez Paulino W. Gonzalez Politi Shugart Unlikely: Wallace Fitzgerald Jimenez Feltman Bonaci Hamilton Koss E. Lopez Santos Bastardo L. De La Rosa Granberg Northcut I'll add that Bazardo's roster spot might depend on this audition. Ort too. Agreed, the Red Sox would not have traded for Abreau if they did not plan on adding him to the 40-man (unless he had totally flopped these last 2 months). I would also agree that Ort and Bazardo are having their “tryout” for 2023 right now, and how they do will determine if they stay on the 40-man come November. Chris, as you have said in the past, some of the boarder line prospects that are A+ and lower probably do not get get added as they are too far from the MLB for many teams to keep on the roster an entire year, and that makes total sense.
|
|
|
Post by 1900getwade on Sept 8, 2022 14:57:58 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2022 15:02:46 GMT -5
I hear you. The problem is this - if you put him on the 40-man, he starts to use options. Kind of rushes the timetable. Keep in mind that he would need to make the MLB club he's picked by as well. That's a pretty big jump for a kid straight out of Low-A. Is the plan for the selecting team to pick him, stash him for a year and option him in 2024 to Double-A? High-A? I just can't see that. The other team also needs to have room for him on THEIR 40-man roster of course, and every club is feeling the crunch from the lost 2020 development season now - it wouldn't surprise me if most teams had a Paulino type they're not going to protect. Consider for comparison that Araúz had 119 plate appearances in Double-A when the Red Sox took him.
|
|
|
Post by 1900getwade on Sept 8, 2022 16:50:58 GMT -5
I hear you. The problem is this - if you put him on the 40-man, he starts to use options. Kind of rushes the timetable. Keep in mind that he would need to make the MLB club he's picked by as well. That's a pretty big jump for a kid straight out of Low-A. Is the plan for the selecting team to pick him, stash him for a year and option him in 2024 to Double-A? High-A? I just can't see that. The other team also needs to have room for him on THEIR 40-man roster of course, and every club is feeling the crunch from the lost 2020 development season now - it wouldn't surprise me if most teams had a Paulino type they're not going to protect. Consider for comparison that Araúz had 119 plate appearances in Double-A when the Red Sox took him. Feel you, this is going to be a weird Rule 5 draft year. It would be difficult puzzle move for us, as well as for other teams. It would very much surprise me if most teams have a Paulino type that thye're not going to protect. You don't think, looking back on it, some teams would have liked to have picked Rafaela and figured a qay to keep him? Obviously, Paulino isn't the defensive savant that Rafeala is, but I think he's actaully a better hitting prospect.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,383
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 8, 2022 17:35:12 GMT -5
I hear you. The problem is this - if you put him on the 40-man, he starts to use options. Kind of rushes the timetable. Keep in mind that he would need to make the MLB club he's picked by as well. That's a pretty big jump for a kid straight out of Low-A. Is the plan for the selecting team to pick him, stash him for a year and option him in 2024 to Double-A? High-A? I just can't see that. The other team also needs to have room for him on THEIR 40-man roster of course, and every club is feeling the crunch from the lost 2020 development season now - it wouldn't surprise me if most teams had a Paulino type they're not going to protect. Consider for comparison that Araúz had 119 plate appearances in Double-A when the Red Sox took him. Feel you, this is going to be a weird Rule 5 draft year. It would be difficult puzzle move for us, as well as for other teams. It would very much surprise me if most teams have a Paulino type that thye're not going to protect. You don't think, looking back on it, some teams would have liked to have picked Rafaela and figured a qay to keep him? Obviously, Paulino isn't the defensive savant that Rafeala is, but I think he's actaully a better hitting prospect. It's certainly possible but baseball is such a mental and confidence based game that if you pick a guy hoping to somehow just stash him on your ML squad for a year you're seriously damaging their progression. They're just not going to get many ABs.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2022 17:47:47 GMT -5
An honest question: this scenario of a team grabbing some prospect who's far from the majors and then just keeping him on a major league roster for a full season even though he's far from ready gets bandied about regularly... have teams actually done this in the past?
|
|
|
Post by redsoxrich on Sept 8, 2022 18:00:08 GMT -5
San Diego Padres did it with first 3 picks in 2016 - drafted Miguel Diaz who was in Single A, Luis Torrens who was in high A and Allen Cordoba who was in Rookie Ball at time of draft. All were kept - Diaz had cups of coffee with SD over 3 or 4 seasons - now in Triple A with another organization, Torrens was backup catcher with Seattle until he was DFA'd recently. Cordoba got into car accident a year or two after being Rule 5 drafted. I think he is still in organization, but is not a major league prospect anymore. I think you can say the year of lost development hurt Diaz, didn't affect Torrens and had an undetermined effect on Cordoba.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Sept 8, 2022 18:00:57 GMT -5
An honest question: this scenario of a team grabbing some prospect who's far from the majors and then just keeping him on a major league roster for a full season even though he's far from ready gets bandied about regularly... have teams actually done this in the past? Akil Baddoo, Luis Torrens, Allen Cordoba and Anthony Santander are the position players since 2016 that had never played in AA and stuck
|
|
|
Post by xdmo on Sept 8, 2022 21:50:39 GMT -5
An honest question: this scenario of a team grabbing some prospect who's far from the majors and then just keeping him on a major league roster for a full season even though he's far from ready gets bandied about regularly... have teams actually done this in the past? Akil Baddoo, Luis Torrens, Allen Cordoba and Anthony Santander are the position players since 2016 that had never played in AA and stuck I think Jonathan Arauz is on that list, too.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2022 5:45:10 GMT -5
Akil Baddoo, Luis Torrens, Allen Cordoba and Anthony Santander are the position players since 2016 that had never played in AA and stuck I think Jonathan Arauz is on that list, too. He'd played in AA.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 10, 2022 10:43:09 GMT -5
An honest question: this scenario of a team grabbing some prospect who's far from the majors and then just keeping him on a major league roster for a full season even though he's far from ready gets bandied about regularly... have teams actually done this in the past? Akil Baddoo, Luis Torrens, Allen Cordoba and Anthony Santander are the position players since 2016 that had never played in AA and stuck Baddoo was two years past low-A (A+, COVID), and Santander was coming off an excellent A+ season. That leaves the two from the insane Padres experiment for guys drafted from low-A or lower.
What we don't know is how often position players have been protected out of low-A. As far as I know there's no comprehensive set of records of within-franchise transactions, i.e., players added to the 40-man or removed from it, clearing waivers, and staying in the organization. . Even a simple listing of the 40-man rosters at Rule 5 time from each year would be a valuable resource.
Looking at Wade Boggs' career, any naive person would assume he was selected to the 40-man after he hit .306 / .396 / .364 in AAA. But he wasn't, and nobody took him.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Sept 10, 2022 11:01:44 GMT -5
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 10, 2022 12:25:19 GMT -5
One helpful step is to list guys already on the 40-man who seem likely to be optioned next year, if everyone is healthy. Subtract the number of names you come up with from 14 and you have the number of open slots.
(Presumed MLB) Dalbec Crawford Bello Casas
Likely or Certain (7)
Mata Seabold Duran Downs Winckowski Cordero Kelly
Iffy (4) (a/k/a relievers of dubious value)
Taylor D. Hernandez Ort Bazardo
Gone (out of options) (3)
R. Hernandez
Danish J. Davis
While I'm at it ... there are currently 45 guys on the 40-man, so lets count the likely further trims, the idea being to see how many relievers they can add. Start here:
(Re-Signed or Replaced *) Bogaerts Martinez * Eovaldi * Wacha
Strahm *?
Pham * (with RF)
That leaves ...
Gone (7)
Brasier (DFA?)
Plawecki (FA)
Paxton (FA)
Hill (FA)
Hosmer (trade)
Familia (DFA)
Almonte (DFA)
Note that not only does Hosmer project to be just an OK DH, you need a RHB for that role or the lineup becomes imbalanced (assuming they sign Nimmo). And if they end up with a RHB in RF instreaf, there's no way you wouldn't want to trade Hosmer and sign Joc Pederson.
So, 45 - 7 + 7 additions per Chris - 7 = 38. So 2 more relievers, at least one lefty, to join Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Strahm or a replacement, and Crawford (long man / 7th starter).
There may of course be trades here, but they should wash out in terms or roster and roles.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Sept 10, 2022 12:44:39 GMT -5
Better prospect doesn't necessarily mean more ready to stick on an MLB club, though.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Sept 10, 2022 16:43:29 GMT -5
Were not the only team with rule 5 issues. I'm sure a few of these clubs are swallowing hard this offseason.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 10, 2022 17:14:46 GMT -5
Surprised to see Hamilton on the unlikely list. He's gotta be a lock to get selected as a Utility guy with great speed. New larger bases and throw over rules should benefit a guy like him
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 10, 2022 20:08:02 GMT -5
Surprised to see Hamilton on the unlikely list. He's gotta be a lock to get selected as a Utility guy with great speed. New larger bases and throw over rules should benefit a guy like him There simply not enough spots open on the 40-man for all the Rule 5s you would like to protect.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 10, 2022 20:10:46 GMT -5
Surprised to see Hamilton on the unlikely list. He's gotta be a lock to get selected as a Utility guy with great speed. New larger bases and throw over rules should benefit a guy like him There simply not enough spots open on the 40-man for all the Rule 5s you would like to protect. Oh I get that, totally. But that middle section was maybe/potentially picked. I was just saying that I think Hamilton has a good chance of being selected
|
|
|