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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2022 23:57:31 GMT -5
Why bring up post 2022 season Rule 5 eligible now?
The answer is…..Bloom will need to make moves to create space for many on the list who will be part of the next Red Sox World Series championship. Notable Rule 5 players:
Sox Prospects ranking:
1) Triston Casas
6) Brandon Walter
9) Wikelman Gonzalez
11) Chris Murphy
15) Ceddanne Rafaela
19) Gilberto Jimenez
21) Thaddeus Ward
22) Christian Koss
23) Ryan Fitzgerald
25) David Hamilton
26) Eddinson Paulino
27) Brainer Bonaci
30) Frank German
Other notables
Kole Cottam
AJ Politi
Some of these players will already added to the 40-man during the 2022 season, but some will, of course, be added in November.
If Bloom trades some of these Rule 5 players, I would not be surprised if he trades for lower level players who will not be Rule 5 eligible for a year or two rather than risk loosing some that may be selected. I hope Bloom brings up more of the AAA guys during 2022, so they can better assess who to keep in Boston and who to add to the 40-man before the draft.
Bloom may want to use some of the above listed talent in trades to fuel the run for the 2022 wild card spots (considering the Red Sox have won 6 of their last 8 games and are only 4 behind in the wild card with 123 games to play). They have as good a chance as most teams…
One other thought, I also wonder if Philadelphia would be gullible enough to take Brasier and Barnes (the way they took Workman and Hembree) for another Pivetta and Seabold. Lol. Poor humor aside, I expect Bloom to trade a few on the 26-man as well as supplement to fuel a drive for the 2022 playoffs.
Lastly,
Eovaldi, Hill, Wacha, Robles, Strahm, Vazquez, Bogaerts, Hernandez, JD, and Plawecki are all FAs or have the opportunity to leave. I expect 2 or 3 or these to be retained. In total I estimate there will 11-12 open spots on the 40-man to be filled between now and next spring. It will be fun to watch how Bloom goes about improving the team.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on May 21, 2022 11:21:12 GMT -5
I don’t think you can protect any of the middle infielders other than Fitzgerald at this point. I’d probably expose Ward and Jimenez too. Important to remember that every other team is going to be in a similar squeeze.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 21, 2022 11:24:22 GMT -5
I don’t think you can protect any of the middle infielders other than Fitzgerald at this point. I’d probably expose Ward and Jimenez too. Important to remember that every other team is going to be in a similar squeeze. Looking at that list I'd think they'd protect those first 5, kind of no brainers there. Hamilton and Fitzgerald are looking like they should be and I'd definitely protect German if he's not already on the 40 by the end of the season which I think he will be. |
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Post by costpet on May 21, 2022 12:07:48 GMT -5
Then there’s Song.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 21, 2022 13:57:58 GMT -5
Locks:
Casas, Walter - should be significant major league contributors next year
Hamilton - projection spreadsheets will all say he can play in the majors next year
Probably:
Rafaela - Probably too good a prospect at this point. He'll end the year in AA with a defensive profile that makes him relatively easy to stash in the majors
Fitgzgerald, Politi, German - They all look like they could make the opening day roster next year. No big deal to expose them if that's not the case in 6 months
Murphy - I'm not buying him as a starter at all. His groundball% is a career worst this season, he's gonna have a bad time when he's dealing with the Polar Vortex. But....as soon as he's converted to the pen he'll be close to the majors.
Maybe:
Ward - We'll see
Wikelman - Pretty highly ranked to go unprotected, but he's basically been a league average Low-A pitcher results wise this year.
Probably not:
Paulino, Bonaci - I'm pretty high on them but nobody wants to roster a guy for a year and then your reward is you get to burn a 40 man roster spot on a guy not even ready for AAA.
Jimenez - By god, that's radiohix's music
Cottam - Never heard anything about the Red Sox liking him, but wouldn't be crazy to make him the #3 catcher next year based on his performance.
Nope:
Koss
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 21, 2022 15:51:00 GMT -5
Very quick thoughts, having not thought through this much. Obviously subject to change
Locks:
Casas
Walter
Murphy
Fitzgerald
Rafaela
Likely - depends on how he looks when he comes back:
Ward
Maybe - strong dependence on how the rest of the season goes. No coincidence these are mostly RPs, a low-level SP, and Jimenez whose fate probably turns on how he takes to the new swing mechanics:
Bazardo
Feltman
German
W. Gonzalez
Jimenez
Kelly
Ort
Politi
Shugart
Wallace
Probably not:
Bonaci
Hamilton
Koss
E. Lopez
Paulino
Santos
Cottam
Marrero
Extremely unlikely, but worth mentioning in case by come miracle he comes back like he hasn't missed a beat:
Song
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on May 21, 2022 16:23:35 GMT -5
I think the other thing to consider is it’s push come to shove time for some of the prospects on the 40. Hernandez, Groome, Seabold, even Arauz. Not sure you can carry them again next year if they still can’t help
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 21, 2022 22:33:03 GMT -5
I think the other thing to consider is it’s push come to shove time for some of the prospects on the 40. Hernandez, Groome, Seabold, even Arauz. Not sure you can carry them again next year if they still can’t help I wouldn't put Seabold in that group, but would put Wong in it. But I agree with the point. Honestly, I'm not sure Ronaldo Hernández wouldn't clear waivers right now. What team is like "You know what we need? To use a 40-man spot to claim this poor-fielding catcher with a .342 OPS." Also key will be whether they can replace Wacha and Hill with players on the 40 already. |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,053 
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Post by cdj on May 21, 2022 23:26:08 GMT -5
Honestly might be smart to DFA Hernandez now before he inevitably gets hot like he did last year
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2022 7:32:05 GMT -5
I think the other thing to consider is it’s push come to shove time for some of the prospects on the 40. Hernandez, Groome, Seabold, even Arauz. Not sure you can carry them again next year if they still can’t help my thought exactly! Not only are most of the FA not coming back, but IMO R. Hernandez, Arauz, and others currently on the 40-man will be removed in November if not sooner. Some of these will be DFAs long before November. |
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Post by gator39 on May 22, 2022 11:46:10 GMT -5
Very quick thoughts, having not thought through this much. Obviously subject to change Locks: Casas Walter Murphy Fitzgerald Rafaela Likely - depends on how he looks when he comes back: Ward Maybe - strong dependence on how the rest of the season goes. No coincidence these are mostly RPs, a low-level SP, and Jimenez whose fate probably turns on how he takes to the new swing mechanics: Bazardo Feltman German W. Gonzalez Jimenez Kelly Ort Politi Shugart Wallace Probably not: Bonaci Hamilton Koss E. Lopez Paulino Santos Cottam Marrero Extremely unlikely, but worth mentioning in case by come miracle he comes back like he hasn't missed a beat: Song |
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Post by gator39 on May 22, 2022 11:47:37 GMT -5
I'm curious why you think Hamilton is unlikely. You know more than me, but I thought he was probably close to a lock. Chaim liked him enough to trade for him & he is having a good season so far.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 22, 2022 21:34:02 GMT -5
Not to be glib, but I simply don't think he's good enough to protect. He's hitting for no power and isn't a particularly great fielder. If you take out his bonkers first game, he's hitting .220/.312/.325 for the season.
Not sure what trading for him has to do with it. I don't think he's likely to be selected based on what we've seen so far, so why protect him?
I don't think anyone in that Portland lineup is good enough to protect. Pitching, obv, is a different story entirely.
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Post by James Dunne on May 22, 2022 23:09:01 GMT -5
Koss's ability to play shortstop would give him a pretty good shot to stick, and he's got more upside than Fitzgerald. I think if Fitzgerald gets added it will be during season. If he's not regarded enough to get a shot this year then I don't think they are high enough on him to protect.
I'm guessing that between now and the end of the season the glut of right-handed relievers will sort themselves out a bit. Wallace is someone who I think gets taken by one of the analytics-inclined teams. He's tough because the results haven't consistently caught up with the measurables. He has the type of upside you hate to lose. But in a roster crunch I can see him just missing. He's walking like a batter per inning but the Eastern League is hitting just .135 against him. If the control comes around at all, he's someone who could not just stick in 2023 but actually contribute.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2022 5:47:13 GMT -5
Yeah I don't think there's a question that Fitzgerald gets a shot this year, which sort of underpinned that one for me.
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Post by James Dunne on May 23, 2022 8:57:34 GMT -5
Makes sense. Even still, I'd have Koss in that "maybe" pool rather than "probably not."
Wikelman Gonzalez is the hardest one for me I think. No way he's ready in 2023, but some team could definitely stunt his development by stashing him in the bullpen. In a non-crunch situation I think you might add him, but it would be really hard to find a spot as it stands. I would hate to lose him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2022 10:21:03 GMT -5
On Koss, I guess I just see him currently as another OK Double-A SS rather than a stud defender who will stick or a top prospect who you'd hate to lose. With everyone facing tough Rule 5 decisions, I think he's going to be left unprotected, but of course he could change that. Might belong in the Maybe group though.
On Wikelman, he's a good young starter but we're not hearing there's a pitch that allows him to stick in MLB right now (compare to Jason Garcia hitting 100). Unless he breaks out in a big way, I think they risk it. But again, let's see how the season plays out.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 23, 2022 11:17:13 GMT -5
Something to consider - within the discussion of the rule 5 draft, only 50% of the question is 'who should be protected' as the other 50% is 'who should they be looking to claim'. I think Chris' list of 'yes' is perfect along with the two wild cards, but I don't see anyone else being protected without a major jump in stuff/results.
For every Koss out there who we don't protect, there's likely a superior player who isn't protected on another team who we could claim.
Last year I went in-depth on all of the players available in the major league portion of the rule-5 draft (which never happened) and came to the conclusion that no Red Sox would have been claimed. It wasn't due to Red Sox players not being good, but due to the limited 40-man spots around the league and the quality of the players available from other teams.
This year may be closer, as the Red Sox farm system has improved, but due to the skipped draft last season, we're probably looking at an even better group of rule-5 available players. I hope the Red Sox open space to be major players.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2022 12:23:41 GMT -5
Something to consider - within the discussion of the rule 5 draft, only 50% of the question is 'who should be protected' as the other 50% is 'who should they be looking to claim'. I think Chris' list of 'yes' is perfect along with the two wild cards, but I don't see anyone else being protected without a major jump in stuff/results. For every Koss out there who we don't protect, there's likely a superior player who isn't protected on another team who we could claim. Last year I went in-depth on all of the players available in the major league portion of the rule-5 draft (which never happened) and came to the conclusion that no Red Sox would have been claimed. It wasn't due to Red Sox players not being good, but due to the limited 40-man spots around the league and the quality of the players available from other teams. This year may be closer, as the Red Sox farm system has improved, but due to the skipped draft last season, we're probably looking at an even better group of rule-5 available players. I hope the Red Sox open space to be major players. For whatever it's worth, based on what we were hearing, we expected at least one Red Sox to be selected and potentially more. --- Other things that must be considered as well: - Having a player selected can be better than spending the 40-man spot on them. If you have 8 RP who are all about the same and you lose one... whatever. Yeah, he might turn into Ryan Pressly but also might just be Cesar Cabral or Josh Fields. - Having a player selected doesn't mean you're going to lose them. If the player winds up getting returned, like most Rule 5 picks from the Red Sox have been, then you were still correct not to protect them. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on May 23, 2022 12:41:12 GMT -5
It's pretty early to begin this exercise given that, in addition to the veterans who may or may not re-sign, there's no telling in May whether guys like Dalbec, Arroyo, Darwinzon, Sawamura, Robles, Barnes, Danish, Arauz, Davis, Valdez will play well enough over the next 3/4 of the season to hang onto them. That's 10 spots.
Even Franchy and Duran are question marks. Obviously Squanchy is hitting walk-off grannies now but there's no guarantee that this past few weeks represents a new normal (particularly as the league adjusts to him again). Meanwhile, Jarred (don't call me Jarren) Kelenic has a .958 OPS in 172 AAA PAs, vs. a .594 OPS in 473 MLB PAs. That's eerily similar to Duran's numbers (although the numbers of PAs are approximately reversed for Jarren -- .599 in 117 MLB PAs and .889 in 409 AAA PAs). It's unlikely that Duran gets DFAed (clearly, he's at least 11th in line) but it would be nice if he starting taking some of his AAA performance to the Show like Franchy has begun to do.
The bottom line is that we're so far away from knowing if there will be a crunch or not and, more importantly, how many other teams will have crunchier crunches.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on May 23, 2022 12:44:15 GMT -5
Something to consider - within the discussion of the rule 5 draft, only 50% of the question is 'who should be protected' as the other 50% is 'who should they be looking to claim'. I think Chris' list of 'yes' is perfect along with the two wild cards, but I don't see anyone else being protected without a major jump in stuff/results. For every Koss out there who we don't protect, there's likely a superior player who isn't protected on another team who we could claim. Last year I went in-depth on all of the players available in the major league portion of the rule-5 draft (which never happened) and came to the conclusion that no Red Sox would have been claimed. It wasn't due to Red Sox players not being good, but due to the limited 40-man spots around the league and the quality of the players available from other teams. This year may be closer, as the Red Sox farm system has improved, but due to the skipped draft last season, we're probably looking at an even better group of rule-5 available players. I hope the Red Sox open space to be major players. For whatever it's worth, based on what we were hearing, we expected at least one Red Sox to be selected and potentially more. --- Other things that must be considered as well: - Having a player selected can be better than spending the 40-man spot on them. If you have 8 RP who are all about the same and you lose one... whatever. Yeah, he might turn into Ryan Pressly but also might just be Cesar Cabral or Josh Fields. - Having a player selected doesn't mean you're going to lose them. If the player winds up getting returned, like most Rule 5 picks from the Red Sox have been, then you were still correct not to protect them. ... or Jason Garcia. Crazy how much angst he caused by breaking some radar guns on a back field... |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 23, 2022 13:02:12 GMT -5
On Koss, I guess I just see him currently as another OK Double-A SS rather than a stud defender who will stick or a top prospect who you'd hate to lose. With everyone facing tough Rule 5 decisions, I think he's going to be left unprotected, but of course he could change that. Might belong in the Maybe group though. On Wikelman, he's a good young starter but we're not hearing there's a pitch that allows him to stick in MLB right now (compare to Jason Garcia hitting 100). Unless he breaks out in a big way, I think they risk it. But again, let's see how the season plays out. Koss feels strongly like a guy that gets traded for a reliever |
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 23, 2022 13:57:27 GMT -5
Something to consider - within the discussion of the rule 5 draft, only 50% of the question is 'who should be protected' as the other 50% is 'who should they be looking to claim'. I think Chris' list of 'yes' is perfect along with the two wild cards, but I don't see anyone else being protected without a major jump in stuff/results. For every Koss out there who we don't protect, there's likely a superior player who isn't protected on another team who we could claim. Last year I went in-depth on all of the players available in the major league portion of the rule-5 draft (which never happened) and came to the conclusion that no Red Sox would have been claimed. It wasn't due to Red Sox players not being good, but due to the limited 40-man spots around the league and the quality of the players available from other teams. This year may be closer, as the Red Sox farm system has improved, but due to the skipped draft last season, we're probably looking at an even better group of rule-5 available players. I hope the Red Sox open space to be major players. For whatever it's worth, based on what we were hearing, we expected at least one Red Sox to be selected and potentially more. --- Other things that must be considered as well: - Having a player selected can be better than spending the 40-man spot on them. If you have 8 RP who are all about the same and you lose one... whatever. Yeah, he might turn into Ryan Pressly but also might just be Cesar Cabral or Josh Fields. - Having a player selected doesn't mean you're going to lose them. If the player winds up getting returned, like most Rule 5 picks from the Red Sox have been, then you were still correct not to protect them. I've heard/read the rumors, but it seems like a stretch. Ward is the only guy who would have really hurt, but given his situation it would have been very difficult for any team to hold onto him until he is ready. Perhaps a non-contender would have tried it, but there were some real nice arms out there which didn't have the caveat of major injury. Jimenez would have had no chance of sticking at the MLB level and his upside isn't so great that a team would have committed to him as a defensive replacement for a year. Feltman is the name that has gotten the most talk, and perhaps there was a team that really liked him, but I can't imagine he would have stuck. But I am curious about his frustration at the cancellation of the draft. Is it possible he had inside information that he would have been drafted? Is there any benefit to a team to let that type of information slip out? It would be interesting if he was more than just speculating. If any of these guys (or someone else) had been drafted, but the Red Sox drafted Adrian Hernandez (Toronto) then I would have been all for it. www.mlb.com/prospects/bluejays/adrian-hernandez-681753 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2022 14:59:19 GMT -5
On Koss, I guess I just see him currently as another OK Double-A SS rather than a stud defender who will stick or a top prospect who you'd hate to lose. With everyone facing tough Rule 5 decisions, I think he's going to be left unprotected, but of course he could change that. Might belong in the Maybe group though. On Wikelman, he's a good young starter but we're not hearing there's a pitch that allows him to stick in MLB right now (compare to Jason Garcia hitting 100). Unless he breaks out in a big way, I think they risk it. But again, let's see how the season plays out. Koss feels strongly like a guy that gets traded for a reliever That is one of the reasons why I started the thread now. All of the Rule 5 eligibles I listed can not be protected, so some may be used as trade chips over the next 2 months. If we know who the Red Sox really want to hold on to, then we have a better idea who they might be willing to part with. Unless it is 2016 Chris Sale with three years of controllability, Devers after 2020 with three years of controllability, or that type of player under those term I would not trade Bello, as 7 years of Bello at minimum plus arb maybe more valuable (re-signing is a separate, additional transaction). Teams need a core of young, controllable players at minimum salary to compete without have to rebuild every thre or four years. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2022 15:30:43 GMT -5
Yeah, this not only can but definitely WILL change over the course of the year. At the start of last season, I'd have done a double-take if you told me they weren't going to protect Ward or Jimenez but were going to protect Crawford, for example. That's the fun in it, I think.
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