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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 7, 2022 20:41:08 GMT -5
Fitzgerald has hit poorly, but do you think his solid defense at so many positions makes him valuable enough to protect? It seems his offense has fallen off a cliff, but hasn’t he a defensive player of the year a couple years ago? I would not protect him. Right now he looks like a bench bat at best, more likely an up-and-down guy. Noteworthy to add, the Sox don’t have any one inning relievers on the 40 who aren’t in Boston. Have they had any over the last couple years? Not sure what you mean. Valdez and Hernandez are in Worcester, and they've typically had relievers in AAA on the 40-man. I guess Darwinzon is a one inning guy. Kinda forgot because of how they were using him this year. But Valdez is def a multi inning imo, he’s given them 83 innings in 63 appearances. I guess my point is that it doesn’t seem likely they protect pure one inning guys unless they know they’ll be on the active roster
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 25, 2022 9:07:10 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 26, 2022 13:57:52 GMT -5
Not exactly in-depth, but here's a hot-take from Eric Longenhagen on the Red Sox upcoming 40-man crunch: Think we've had better discussion here to be honest - he doesn't seem to know the system all that well. (not that I'm saying he's directly wrong, but seems his analysis is more birds-eye perspective) blogs.fangraphs.com/examining-the-american-leagues-2022-40-man-crunch/
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 26, 2022 14:34:24 GMT -5
Yeah, the "who knows what happens with Jimenez" comment kind of exposes the analysis a bit. Here's my updated projection. I don't expect them to go outside the locks unless they have a ton of room and want to add Kelly or German.
Locks: Casas Walter Murphy Rafaela Ward up
Maybe - going to depend on how they finish, and some might be on the 40 already by then (thinking Kelly): Kelly German Bazardo W. Gonzalez Politi Shugart Wallace Paulino
Unlikely: Fitzgerald down Jimenez Feltman Bonaci Hamilton Koss E. Lopez Santos Bastardo L. De La Rosa Granberg Northcut
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Jul 26, 2022 15:02:55 GMT -5
Yeah, the "who knows what happens with Jimenez" comment kind of exposes the analysis a bit. Here's my updated projection. I don't expect them to go outside the locks unless they have a ton of room and want to add Kelly or German. Locks: Casas Walter Murphy Rafaela Ward upMaybe - going to depend on how they finish, and some might be on the 40 already by then (thinking Kelly): Kelly German Bazardo W. Gonzalez Politi Shugart Wallace Paulino Unlikely: Fitzgerald downJimenez Feltman Bonaci Hamilton Koss E. Lopez Santos Bastardo L. De La Rosa Granberg Northcut I doubt anyone will argue with the locks. Curious who you think the most likely to be selected out of the others is and how much that factors into their decision making? Considering the roster gymnastics they’ve had to do around the 40-man this year, I assume that Koss (and Fitzgerald, though I wouldn’t protect him) would have been in the big leagues at some point this year if he was already on the 40, based on his defensive profile. Pretty sure the same could not be said for Wallace, despite the stuff? I know that’s a far cry from carrying someone all year but those are the only two that I’d probably flip from your list.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 26, 2022 15:33:27 GMT -5
Koss also seems to me to be the most likely player to move up into the 'maybe' category. Not a huge ceiling, but he's hitting at a solid clip in AA, is only 24 and his defensive versatility seems to be a great way to stick on an MLB roster as a utility guy. I could see him getting picked.
I was high (way too high in retrospect) on Fitzgerald after spring training and the early season, but he slashed .186/.262.309 in June and so far has slashed .113/.262/.208 in July. Given that he's 28, it's hard to see a team picking him rather than signing one of the numerous AAAA infielders with MLB experience floating around. Willing to bet he falls out of the top-30 come August.
Wikelman seems like a stretch. Even with the potential, a guy who's struggling at low-A is tough to hide on an MLB roster.
Obviously, the relief pitchers have a whole bunch of question marks. I was annoyed this past off-season with Bloom going after borderline mid-relievers given the system depth that has been created and hope he doesn't do it again. Even if it's just a few million bucks, it's better used elsewhere, especially if you end-up trading for someone regardless at the deadline. I'd much rather see that 'maybe' list fail in the majors than a bunch of re-treads with limited upside.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 26, 2022 18:16:43 GMT -5
Curious who you think the most likely to be selected out of the others is and how much that factors into their decision making? Said it in the post - Kelly and German. And I'm not sure what you mean with the second part? When do you think these would've happened? What player who did come up do you think wouldn't have? Maybe at the beginning of the year they might've given Fitzgerald a look, but Koss and Wallace haven't even been deemed ready for Triple-A, so I don't get saying that, but for the 40-man, they'd have been given a shot in the majors. As for Fitzgerald, there's that point where Jaylin Davis was first on the roster, which came right after the first series in Toronto... read into that as you will.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 29, 2022 11:08:15 GMT -5
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 15, 2022 9:26:28 GMT -5
My Rule 5 list as of mid-August in no particular order:
1) Triston Casas 2) Brandon Walter 3) Chris Murphy 4) Ceddanne Rafaela 5) Thaddeus Ward 6) Enmanuel Valdez 7) Frank German
I feel these players are too good to risk loosing. I think there will be space for all 7 to be added.
I also think Eovaldi and/or Wacha will be re-signed to a QO and an extension respectively. IMO Vazquez has at least a 50/50 chance of re-signing. Some decisions will be made with Darwinzon and Rolando Hernandez (and a few other boarder line players).
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2022 10:10:38 GMT -5
If Fernandez is throwing 99 with a high spin cutter you have to put him on the 40-man. Somebody will snag him and make him stick with the stuff he has shown this year
Will be tough to figure it out though.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 15, 2022 10:40:23 GMT -5
Wilyer Abreu is gonna be a close one IMO
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 15, 2022 10:54:02 GMT -5
Wilyer Abreu is gonna be a close one IMO I could be wrong but I think they'll protect Abreu. He's a corner OF who can hold his own defensively, has power and draws walks and the Red Sox organization is pretty thin on upper level outfield talent. It's possible somebody plucks him although I can see the argument why not.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 15, 2022 11:42:18 GMT -5
If Fernandez is throwing 99 with a high spin cutter you have to put him on the 40-man. Somebody will snag him and make him stick with the stuff he has shown this year Will be tough to figure it out though. Oops, forgot Fernandez and Abreu……that makes 9. I think players like Rolando Hernandez, Darwinzon, and Franchy Cordero will be traded or released to make room for the new Rule 5 adds.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2022 11:43:31 GMT -5
If Fernandez is throwing 99 with a high spin cutter you have to put him on the 40-man. Somebody will snag him and make him stick with the stuff he has shown this year Will be tough to figure it out though. Oops, forgot Fernandez and Abreu……that makes 9. I think players like Rolando Hernandez, Darwinzon, and Franchy Cordero will be traded or released to make room for the new Rule 5 adds. Agreed, I just looked at the 40 man and there are 12-13 spots I could see being cleared in some fashion
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Post by seamus on Aug 15, 2022 11:44:53 GMT -5
I think they can probably get away without protecting Abreu. I like him as a prospect and think he's got real potential to be a solid everyday right fielder, but he seems far enough away developmentally that while a team could potentially stash him on an MLB bench as a 4th/5th OF, the lost playing time would diminish his chances of realizing that potential enough that it wouldn't be worthwhile. I could be wrong, but if there's any sort of crunch, I think he's a guy you gamble on going unselected.
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Aug 15, 2022 12:28:39 GMT -5
Is not having the rule 5 draft last year going to effect this years draft? I would think more players could be picked but the pool would be larger and some of these borderline players won`t be taken anyways.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 15, 2022 19:16:38 GMT -5
Is not having the rule 5 draft last year going to effect this years draft? I would think more players could be picked but the pool would be larger and some of these borderline players won`t be taken anyways. Not really. It's not like you're only eligible for the Rule 5 Draft once and then you're done, so it's not like there's a larger than usual backlog of guys. What HAS created a larger pool is the expansion of the active roster to 26 without a corresponding expansion of the 40-man roster, which essentially took away a minor league "stash" spot on the 40-man roster while simultaneously making it easier to stash a guy in MLB. You really can't compare 40-man decisions before and after that point, because it's a completely different calculation now.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 16, 2022 10:05:57 GMT -5
Is not having the rule 5 draft last year going to effect this years draft? I would think more players could be picked but the pool would be larger and some of these borderline players won`t be taken anyways. Not really. It's not like you're only eligible for the Rule 5 Draft once and then you're done, so it's not like there's a larger than usual backlog of guys. What HAS created a larger pool is the expansion of the active roster to 26 without a corresponding expansion of the 40-man roster, which essentially took away a minor league "stash" spot on the 40-man roster while simultaneously making it easier to stash a guy in MLB. You really can't compare 40-man decisions before and after that point, because it's a completely different calculation now. I assume with fewer spots to “stash” players in the minors, then players who are lower minor league / less MLB ready, will be tougher to add to the 40-man (hence Groome available to trade to SD since he was a ways down the depth chart).
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 19, 2022 7:10:10 GMT -5
Getty's (RHP) is mlfa. Sox have to resign him and then he could be lost in this draft.
He's still 0.00
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 19, 2022 9:46:22 GMT -5
Getty's (RHP) is mlfa. Sox have to resign him and then he could be lost in this draft. He's still 0.00 Something appears to have turned for him around June. No chance he's protected (even among the eligible reliever group, he's behind Kelly, German, Fernandez, Wallace, Politi, and Shugart probably, maybe even Mosqueda) but he's certainly intriguing.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 21, 2022 10:31:05 GMT -5
As an MLFA, Gettys feels like a guy who might re-sign for an NRI to spring training..
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 21, 2022 17:19:47 GMT -5
Wilyer Abreu is gonna be a close one IMO I could be wrong but I think they'll protect Abreu. He's a corner OF who can hold his own defensively, has power and draws walks and the Red Sox organization is pretty thin on upper level outfield talent. It's possible somebody plucks him although I can see the argument why not. If you are interested in Keith Law's opinion of the prospects the Sox received in the Vasquez trade, he considers Abreu the real get in that deal and questions whether Valdez has much of a major league future. theathletic.com/3469107/2022/08/01/christian-vazquez-red-sox-prospects/
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 21, 2022 18:18:03 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I think they'll protect Abreu. He's a corner OF who can hold his own defensively, has power and draws walks and the Red Sox organization is pretty thin on upper level outfield talent. It's possible somebody plucks him although I can see the argument why not. If you are interested in Keith Law's opinion of the prospects the Sox received in the Vasquez trade, he considers Abreu the real get in that deal and questions whether Valdez has much of a major league future. theathletic.com/3469107/2022/08/01/christian-vazquez-red-sox-prospects/I can't see it behind the pay wall. What is his synopsis as to why Abreu is the real get? And is it the defense he's down on re: Valdez, like he can't play anywhere adequately or is he down on his bat as well? Either way, it's just an opinion, an educated one, but not infallible.
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 21, 2022 20:17:21 GMT -5
Law "Abreu is a plus defender in right with a tremendous throwing arm, and after a swing adjustment starting hitting the ball a lot harder." Said he has a 70 arm in this recap. theathletic.com/3469337/2022/08/01/keith-law-astros-red-sox-orioles-trade/For Valdez, besides the defensive problems, Law said he expands the zone and finishes with a closed stride that he doesn't think will lead to continued success at the major league level.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 21, 2022 20:42:11 GMT -5
Law "Abreu is a plus defender in right with a tremendous throwing arm, and after a swing adjustment starting hitting the ball a lot harder." Said he has a 70 arm in this recap. theathletic.com/3469337/2022/08/01/keith-law-astros-red-sox-orioles-trade/For Valdez, besides the defensive problems, Law said he expands the zone and finishes with a closed stride that he doesn't think will lead to continued success at the major league level. Thanks. We'll see if Law is right or not about Valdez's hitting mechanics holding him back.
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