ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,375
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2022 13:20:27 GMT -5
As we hit the 12 hour or so mark since the xandy news broke, I think the worst part now is the radio silence in terms of rumors and news. At least if we had some rumors for new potential sox targets we could distract ourselves a little bit from the bummer that became the xandy negotiations.
|
|
|
Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 8, 2022 13:22:11 GMT -5
Mookie wasn't staying, Bennie was a shell, the farm was junk but by all means throw 100s of millions after at-to-past-their-peak players to try to stay in the hunt TODAY. Or take what I believe is their new approach, rebuild the farm, bring in some talent on reasonable contracts (Story, Yoshida?) and then when the farm boys emerge extend them by buying out arb and early FA years (that part TBD - we may get a hint with how Casas' career goes). By all mean trade Devers for really top prospects and an aging thumper on a short deal and then let's see if they have a good eye to minor league talent a la Tampa Bay.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Dec 8, 2022 13:22:18 GMT -5
As we hit the 12 hour or so mark since the xandy news broke, I think the worst part now is the radio silence in terms of rumors and news. At least if we had some rumors for new potential sox targets we could distract ourselves a little bit from the bummer that became the xandy negotiations. Unfortunately, one lesson the Sox have likely learned in the last 24 hours is to be even more steadfast about not talking to the press, after they got burned doing it yesterday.
|
|
|
Post by curtisw on Dec 8, 2022 13:24:05 GMT -5
Yeah it’s been a super depressing day. Keep refreshing MLBTR hoping I get a glimmer of something even halfway interesting coming, but nothing. Not going to read into it or anything. Been doing too much of that. But I will say it’s depressing. I really hope the Red Sox haven’t done the bulk of their work this winter yet.
Not saying they have.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,375
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2022 13:25:16 GMT -5
As we hit the 12 hour or so mark since the xandy news broke, I think the worst part now is the radio silence in terms of rumors and news. At least if we had some rumors for new potential sox targets we could distract ourselves a little bit from the bummer that became the xandy negotiations. Unfortunately, one lesson the Sox have likely learned in the last 24 hours is to be even more steadfast about not talking to the press, after they got burned doing it yesterday. Ha good point. At the same time, I'm not sure I care whether or not it would be a rumor related to the Sox. Give me some news/rumors going on league wide and at least could start thinking about something baseball related other than the bummer of news we have.
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 8, 2022 19:42:08 GMT -5
So the more I think about it, the more it becomes clear to me that there is zero chance that the Red Sox are keeping both Devers and Bogaerts. The idea of tying up ~$600 million in Story, Bogaerts, and Devers, considering that the shift has been banned and their top prospect is a potential franchise SS, just makes no sense. One of Bogaerts and Devers has to be the odd man out. And I think if I am choosing between the 2 of them, I would rather have Xander long term, assuming he would be willing to move over to 3B whenever Mayer comes up. Xander has proven to be the more consistent player than Devers, and I am more confident that he will age well. If the Red Sox feel the same way, that means Devers is on the trading block this winter. Assuming they get good major league talent in return, how would everyone feel about that? Sign Xander to something like 8 years/$220 million, trade Devers for a 5 tool RF or top SP, who they would then extend. I think the possibility of something like that happening is higher than people want to admit. Also gonna circle back to this. This is how I feel about Correa as well, if they were to sign him to a long deal, Devers is gone. And if they sign Devers I don't think they bring in Correa. The problem is that without bringing in Correa, the 2023 team still just looks so mediocre.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2022 12:16:51 GMT -5
Complete list of remaining FA righty bats with Steamer projected wRC+ better than Bobby Dalbec:
Correa - 131 Turner - 115 JDM - 109
Segura - 107 Mancini - 107 F. Reyes - 107
Voit - 107 McCutchen - 106
Drury - 106 Profar - 105 Pollock - 105 Cruz - 105
Myers - 104
Swanson - 104 Aguilar - 103 Sano - 102
Solano - 101 Dickerson - 101 Dalbec - 100
Arroyo is 103 and Refsnyder is 109.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,375
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 10, 2022 12:49:31 GMT -5
Complete list of remaining FA righty bats with Steamer projected wRC+ better than Bobby Dalbec:
Correa - 131 Turner - 115 JDM - 109
Segura - 107 Mancini - 107 F. Reyes - 107
Voit - 107 McCutchen - 106
Drury - 106 Profar - 105 Pollock - 105 Cruz - 105
Myers - 104
Swanson - 104 Aguilar - 103 Sano - 102
Solano - 101 Dickerson - 101 Dalbec - 100
Arroyo is 103 and Refsnyder is 109.
I have a hard time believing dalbec would be a league average hitter which I believe is what that projection is saying with him at 100. That being said the list is a good one to look at since they need an above average RHH the way the current makeup of the lineup appears.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2022 13:01:33 GMT -5
Dalbec had a 115 wRC+ against righties lefties last year. I think he's an above average hitter if he's in a platoon role (acknowledging that he'd still face righties some number of times).
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,897
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on Dec 10, 2022 13:02:14 GMT -5
Complete list of remaining FA righty bats with Steamer projected wRC+ better than Bobby Dalbec: Correa - 131 Turner - 115 JDM - 109
Segura - 107 Mancini - 107 F. Reyes - 107
Voit - 107 McCutchen - 106
Drury - 106 Profar - 105 Pollock - 105 Cruz - 105
Myers - 104
Swanson - 104 Aguilar - 103 Sano - 102
Solano - 101 Dickerson - 101 Dalbec - 100
Arroyo is 103 and Refsnyder is 109. I forgot about Pollock. He actually had a good second half after starting terribly in April/May. Decent bargain bin option.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,375
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 10, 2022 13:11:03 GMT -5
Dalbec had a 115 wRC+ against righties last year. I think he's an above average hitter if he's in a platoon role (acknowledging that he'd still face righties some number of times). Do you mean lefties? Cuz if he somehow had a 115 wrc+ vs righties maybe I'm missing something?
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Dec 10, 2022 13:27:18 GMT -5
Complete list of remaining FA righty bats with Steamer projected wRC+ better than Bobby Dalbec:
Correa - 131 Turner - 115 JDM - 109
Segura - 107 Mancini - 107 F. Reyes - 107
Voit - 107 McCutchen - 106
Drury - 106 Profar - 105 Pollock - 105 Cruz - 105
Myers - 104
Swanson - 104 Aguilar - 103 Sano - 102
Solano - 101 Dickerson - 101 Dalbec - 100
Arroyo is 103 and Refsnyder is 109.
I was curious, so I ran the numbers: the difference between a 100 and 110 wRC hitter over 500 PA, assuming equal defensive and positional value, is about 0.8 WAR.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2022 14:09:43 GMT -5
Complete list of remaining FA righty bats with Steamer projected wRC+ better than Bobby Dalbec:
Correa - 131 Turner - 115 JDM - 109
Segura - 107 Mancini - 107 F. Reyes - 107
Voit - 107 McCutchen - 106
Drury - 106 Profar - 105 Pollock - 105 Cruz - 105
Myers - 104
Swanson - 104 Aguilar - 103 Sano - 102
Solano - 101 Dickerson - 101 Dalbec - 100
Arroyo is 103 and Refsnyder is 109.
I was curious, so I ran the numbers: the difference between a 100 and 110 wRC hitter over 500 PA, assuming equal defensive and positional value, is about 0.8 WAR. Huh, that's good to know. Does it increase linearly? I.e., is a 120 wRC+ 0.8 WAR better than 110, etc.?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2022 14:10:31 GMT -5
Dalbec had a 115 wRC+ against righties last year. I think he's an above average hitter if he's in a platoon role (acknowledging that he'd still face righties some number of times). Do you mean lefties? Cuz if he somehow had a 115 wrc+ vs righties maybe I'm missing something? Yes, duh, I meant lefties. Sorry.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,375
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 10, 2022 14:14:57 GMT -5
Do you mean lefties? Cuz if he somehow had a 115 wrc+ vs righties maybe I'm missing something? Yes, duh, I meant lefties. Sorry. Ha okay. In theory a hosmer/dalbec platoon at DH while also using it to cycle through guys to give them a rest could work decently. If they figure what the heck let's go with them and decide to allocate more money to pitching I wouldn't blame them. On the same end I wouldn't blame them from bringing back JD or adding a Justin turner type guy to DH. Feel like they may have to choose between one or the other tho.
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on Dec 10, 2022 14:19:46 GMT -5
Read an article where another MLB exec was blown away with what the Sox gave to Yoshida. They figured half that amount. It might be why Yoshida signed so quick with the Sox. I hope the Sox evaluation was correct.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Dec 10, 2022 15:46:51 GMT -5
I was curious, so I ran the numbers: the difference between a 100 and 110 wRC hitter over 500 PA, assuming equal defensive and positional value, is about 0.8 WAR. Huh, that's good to know. Does it increase linearly? I.e., is a 120 wRC+ 0.8 WAR better than 110, etc.? More or less. I just sampled a slightly larger set, and it actually looks like the number may be closer to 0.6 WAR per 10 wRC+ per 500 PA. AFAIK there’s no direct formula, so I sampled wRAA for a handful of players (weighted runs above average, the raw counting stat component of offensive fWAR), normalized to 500 PA, and divided by 10 to get WAR. Very roughly 140 wRC: 2.2 WAR 130 wRC: 1.5 WAR 120 wRC: 1.2 WAR 110 wRC: 0.6 WAR
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 12, 2022 15:20:13 GMT -5
Sean Murphy off the block and on his way to Atlanta.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfollower on Dec 16, 2022 19:44:28 GMT -5
My guess is that the Twins are ready to trade Kepler. Maybe the Sox are in on him.
Gallo plays in RF.
The Hosmer DFA opens up room for Yoshida to DH more.
|
|
|
Post by chr31ter on Dec 16, 2022 20:24:22 GMT -5
My guess is that the Twins are ready to trade Kepler. Maybe the Sox are in on him. Gallo plays in RF. The Hosmer DFA opens up room for Yoshida to DH more.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Dec 16, 2022 20:30:06 GMT -5
Twins writers think he's a lock to go
A lot of Yankee fans arguing about him right now
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Dec 16, 2022 20:38:31 GMT -5
Twins writers think he's a lock to go A lot of Yankee fans arguing about him right now Makes more sense for the MFY than for us. Easy to imagine him popping 40 HR in that little league park
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Dec 16, 2022 20:48:41 GMT -5
Seems like it fits reasonably well for the Red Sox. A 2for1 trade with MN for Kepler would free up a spot for a Swanson signing and give them a legitimate RFer. Verdugo could stay in LF and Yoshida could then become the primary DH. Something like Seabold & Winkowski gets it done in the Trade Simulator. Not sure how that might compare to what the NYY might offer.
They would then be above average defensively at 2B, SS, 1B, CF, RF, C and average defensively at LF & 3B
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 16, 2022 21:09:57 GMT -5
No thanks to Kepler. Except for 2019 when the ball was juiced he hasn't been much of a hitter nor has he provided that much power that I'd want to give up talent.
If the goal is to get s RF, then throw money at Michael Conforto whom the Sox are not linked to.
I'd rather see the Sox get a RH bat and get a defensive backup outfielder that can shift Verdugo to LF late in games and replace Yoshida (perhaps Refsnyder)
The Red Sox lineup is lacking good RH hitting in the lineup.
There's Story, Hernandez, and that's about it. Even with a Swanson it's short and I know Refsnyder is on the bench and hit lefties very well last year.
But I would like them to pick up a RH bat that can play just about every day.
If they're not bringing back JDM then Justin Turner would fit the lineup nicely and going from LA to Boston could only help his offense which is still pretty good.
At this point the best possible regular Sox lineup would be:
Yoshida Story Devers Turner Verdugo Swanson Casas Hernandez McGuire
Bring back Eovaldi and add one of Chafin, Rodgers, or Britton to bolster late inning lefty relief and you have a competitive team that might make a playoff spot with a mid 80s win total like 86 or 87 wins.
Of course the Swanson thing.....wouldnt want to be on the hook for a long term deal with him.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Dec 16, 2022 21:16:27 GMT -5
Can we *please* get a RH OF? No Conforto, no Kepler, no Gallo (or getting wistful over him)… Right. Hand. Ed.
|
|