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2022- 2023 Offseason Thread
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 6, 2022 17:26:39 GMT -5
I like this list with a few exceptions. I think Hosmer can fit in on the 2023 team pretty well and not sure he'd fetch much return. If I'm wrong and he can bring back something of value to the roster then I'd be for it though. I wouldn't deal him for some lotto ticket prospects though. I'm not sure I want to sign Bello to an extension quite yet. We still don't know exactly what he is and pitching is so volatile and injury prone that I kind of think it makes sense to keep him for the cheap rookie deals the next year maybe 2. If he'd sign something like what Whitlock got then sure but not sure if he would or not? Just one man's opinion though and I can see the rationale to approaching him at least. Same argument as Bello for Casas though I'd be more inclined to give him an extension now as he seems a more sure bet to be a key cog for many years. Not sure what an extension could look like for him though. I'm no fan of Hosmer. He's a mediocre player. That said the Sox won't trade him until they're sure Casas is healthy. Last I remember reading Casas was having a knee issue? They have to make sure he's healthy first before they extend him and/ or trade Hosmer away. Not gonna dispute that he's mediocre/very average at the least but for league minimum and considering what they've gotten out of 1st base recently I'd still consider Hosmer relatively valuable to the sox and overall the potential roster construction for 2023.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 6, 2022 17:50:46 GMT -5
I'm no fan of Hosmer. He's a mediocre player. That said the Sox won't trade him until they're sure Casas is healthy. Last I remember reading Casas was having a knee issue? They have to make sure he's healthy first before they extend him and/ or trade Hosmer away. Not gonna dispute that he's mediocre/very average at the least but for league minimum and considering what they've gotten out of 1st base recently I'd still consider Hosmer relatively valuable to the sox and overall the potential roster construction for 2023. Agreed. No issue with Hosmer for what they're paying him. And while I think it'd be a weird turn of events for him to not be in the opening day roster, I do think at some point during the year, the roster could work out such that they sit him down and ask where he'd be ok being traded, because his at-bats are about to drop.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 6, 2022 18:17:03 GMT -5
Not gonna dispute that he's mediocre/very average at the least but for league minimum and considering what they've gotten out of 1st base recently I'd still consider Hosmer relatively valuable to the sox and overall the potential roster construction for 2023. Agreed. No issue with Hosmer for what they're paying him. And while I think it'd be a weird turn of events for him to not be in the opening day roster, I do think at some point during the year, the roster could work out such that they sit him down and ask where he'd be ok being traded, because his at-bats are about to drop. If Bloom is true to his word, the Red Sox are “a lot better”, then maybe we see X re-signed, Nimmo, Wacha, another top half of the list starting pitcher, and a bushel of bullpen arms, then Hosmer might want playing time elsewhere or maybe he stays to be a bench player in a playoff team (more likely a trade)…. I am anxious to see what Bloom means by a lot better.
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 6, 2022 18:29:06 GMT -5
Agreed. No issue with Hosmer for what they're paying him. And while I think it'd be a weird turn of events for him to not be in the opening day roster, I do think at some point during the year, the roster could work out such that they sit him down and ask where he'd be ok being traded, because his at-bats are about to drop. If Bloom is true to his word, the Red Sox are “ a lot better”, then maybe we see X re-signed, Nimmo, Wacha, another top half of the list starting pitcher, and a bushel of bullpen arms, then Hosmer might want playing time elsewhere or maybe he stays to be a bench player in a playoff team (more likely a trade)…. I am anxious to see what Bloom means by a lot better. forgive me if this is a silly question, but did Bloom make a recent statement that I missed? Where is the "a lot better" reference from??
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 6, 2022 18:31:17 GMT -5
If Bloom is true to his word, the Red Sox are “ a lot better”, then maybe we see X re-signed, Nimmo, Wacha, another top half of the list starting pitcher, and a bushel of bullpen arms, then Hosmer might want playing time elsewhere or maybe he stays to be a bench player in a playoff team (more likely a trade)…. I am anxious to see what Bloom means by a lot better. forgive me if this is a silly question, but did Bloom make a recent statement that I missed? Where is the "a lot better" reference from?? I believe that's based off comments made after Hernandez signed his extension. If my recall is correct Hernandez mentioned how he was excited to sign and part of it was due to Bloom assuring him the 2023 team would be much improved.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 6, 2022 18:31:46 GMT -5
If Bloom is true to his word, the Red Sox are “ a lot better”, then maybe we see X re-signed, Nimmo, Wacha, another top half of the list starting pitcher, and a bushel of bullpen arms, then Hosmer might want playing time elsewhere or maybe he stays to be a bench player in a playoff team (more likely a trade)…. I am anxious to see what Bloom means by a lot better. forgive me if this is a silly question, but did Bloom make a recent statement that I missed? Where is the "a lot better" reference from?? When Enrique Hernandez was re-signed.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 6, 2022 18:31:58 GMT -5
If Bloom is true to his word, the Red Sox are “ a lot better”, then maybe we see X re-signed, Nimmo, Wacha, another top half of the list starting pitcher, and a bushel of bullpen arms, then Hosmer might want playing time elsewhere or maybe he stays to be a bench player in a playoff team (more likely a trade)…. I am anxious to see what Bloom means by a lot better. forgive me if this is a silly question, but did Bloom make a recent statement that I missed? Where is the "a lot better" reference from?? When Enrique Hernandez was re-signed. I believe Hernandez told the media that he signed, because Bloom had told him the team would be a lot better in 2023.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 6, 2022 18:36:13 GMT -5
i am gonna be very interested in how Bloom comes out of the gates. If he holds his hand, like he has done till now, and waits for markets to develop, i won't be confident in his chances.
We got the money now, he needs to pick off some things very quickly and go from there.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 6, 2022 19:13:22 GMT -5
i am gonna be very interested in how Bloom comes out of the gates. If he holds his hand, like he has done till now, and waits for markets to develop, i won't be confident in his chances. We got the money now, he needs to pick off some things very quickly and go from there. Yes, he needs to act and select who he wants, otherwise, the remains will be slim as there is not much depth at some FA positions.
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 6, 2022 19:33:28 GMT -5
forgive me if this is a silly question, but did Bloom make a recent statement that I missed? Where is the "a lot better" reference from?? When Enrique Hernandez was re-signed. I believe Hernandez told the media that he signed, because Bloom had told him the team would be a lot better in 2023. I guess I was optimistically hoping I had missed a more recent comment that was hinting at a yet to be announced Xander and/or Devers signing.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 6, 2022 22:17:06 GMT -5
Not gonna dispute that he's mediocre/very average at the least but for league minimum and considering what they've gotten out of 1st base recently I'd still consider Hosmer relatively valuable to the sox and overall the potential roster construction for 2023. Agreed. No issue with Hosmer for what they're paying him. And while I think it'd be a weird turn of events for him to not be in the opening day roster, I do think at some point during the year, the roster could work out such that they sit him down and ask where he'd be ok being traded, because his at-bats are about to drop. Pretty simple. If Hosmer is producing at all I’m sure he will continue to see regular at bats. If he struggles at all, then who knows his future.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 7, 2022 9:12:55 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Nov 7, 2022 9:43:31 GMT -5
Choose your fighter (median crowdsource numbers given):
Turner: 7/210 Correa: 8/240 Bogaerts: 6/168 Swanson: 6/141
My heart says Bogaerts. My brain also says Bogaerts *at these numbers* but I think the crowd might be lowballing him a little on years. My brain doesn't mind Correa either if he can be had on only an 8 year deal.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 7, 2022 9:49:53 GMT -5
Choose your fighter (median crowdsource numbers given):
Turner: 7/210 Correa: 8/240 Bogaerts: 6/168 Swanson: 6/141
My heart says Bogaerts. My brain also says Bogaerts *at these numbers* but I think the crowd might be lowballing him a little on years. My brain doesn't mind Correa either if he can be had on only an 8 year deal.
I was doing the same exact thing as you except I was looking at the Ben Clemens projection which has X at 7/217 for 31 AAV and Swanson at 6/144. That AAV seems high for X, but if that's in the ballpark of what he's going to get I'd probably be more comfortable going for one of the other SS. I haven't combed through but couple of other interesting pitcher projections at least to me were Bassit and Eovaldi both at 3/51 and Syndeergard at 2/24 from Clemens. I wouldn't be upset at signing either Bassit and Eovaldi and added Syndeergard. Or something along those lines as I think they'd be best off signing two starters.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 7, 2022 9:54:39 GMT -5
The internet was not sending their best for these crowdsourced contracts. 3/54 for JD Martinez?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 7, 2022 9:55:56 GMT -5
Ben Clemens stole my prediction of 7/217 from a few months back. Although I starting to think 200/7 might be more in the ballpark. But if Turner could be had for only 10 million more I don't know why you wouldn't go with Trea.
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Post by manfred on Nov 7, 2022 10:00:32 GMT -5
Thing is, SS is an embarrassment of riches. I want X, but if they’ll pay, they’ll have no less than 4 WAR there next year.
But… it was also one of our strengths. So to stand still, they’ll pay. But OF is a massive weakness, and it is Judge… Nimmo I guess… and pray for rain. I don’t expect (or want) $350+ million for Judge. I don’t love paying big for Nimmo. Then… Beni? Conforto?
This might require a trade with some pain.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 7, 2022 10:03:19 GMT -5
6/168 for Xander is an easy yes for me. Just need to figure out what position he moves to when he is 33/34, but can cross that bridge when you get there.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 7, 2022 10:07:51 GMT -5
Gee, how 'bout Wacha for 2/16 (crowdsource) or 2/20 (Clemens)? I'd be okay with that. Kiermaier gets the same projection. It's not impossible for me to imagine a future where he's the team's major outfield upgrade and the fanbase goes bananas.
Joc Pederson at 2/20: also notable.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2022 10:53:04 GMT -5
Judge at 8/300 is the Fangraphs crowdsource estimate. I would imagine the general consensus for Sox fans is "it would be cool if we signed him, but the Red Sox won't/shoudn't commit that much money to him, and he'll probably break down and be an albratross."
I'm genuinely curious though about the flip side, however unlikely, that he goes into Bondsian territory the next few years. Like hypothetically, if you knew he's hitting 50+ home runs a year the next four years, give him a ~200 wRC+, does that make up for when he physically breaks down on the back half of the deal?
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Post by manfred on Nov 7, 2022 11:00:26 GMT -5
Gee, how 'bout Wacha for 2/16 (crowdsource) or 2/20 (Clemens)? I'd be okay with that. Kiermaier gets the same projection. It's not impossible for me to imagine a future where he's the team's major outfield upgrade and the fanbase goes bananas.
Joc Pederson at 2/20: also notable.
I will say in advance that if Kiermaier is the “upgrade,” I will go bananas. He is 32, has averaged 90 games a year since 2018 with an 88 OPS+. An OF of Verdugo, Kiermaier, and Kiké is not gunna hunt.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 7, 2022 11:23:12 GMT -5
Keith Law's Top 50 FAs - Athletic so subscription. Here's some brief excerpts, although he does not predict length of contract in all predictions: 1. Correa Mid $30+M AAV 2. Turner Low $30M AAV for 6-8 years 3. Swanson Low $30M AAV for 6-8 years 4. Judge $35-40M AAV (Law says wary of anything over 4 yrs but market will exceed that length) 5. Bogaerts low-mid $30M for max of 6 years. Says he should move to 3rd. Jim Bowden's Top 25 FAs 1. Judge 8 yrs, $330M 2. DeGrom 2 yrs, $90M with opt out after year 1 3. Verlander 3 yrs $135M 4. Correa 10 yrs, $327M 5. Turner 8 yrs, $264M 6. Bogaerts 7 yrs, $196M
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 7, 2022 11:23:57 GMT -5
100 Days until Pitchers & Catchers
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Post by incandenza on Nov 7, 2022 11:26:26 GMT -5
I'm going shopping at the crowdsource mart:
Bogaerts - $28 million Conforto - $14 million Wacha - $8 million Vazquez - $8 million Pederson - $10 million Eflin - $9 million Not listed, but also Hill - $4 million, and another $5 million on 5 John Schreibers
You could put together a lineup with no hitters that project to be below-average other than catcher; Kiké would be the weakest link, and that's a pretty solid weakest link.
Vazquez wants to be here, he and McGuire would make a great catching platoon, so why not.
With a rotation of Sale, Wacha, Whitlock, Bello, and Pivetta, Eflin and Hill could bolster either the rotation (when needed) or the bullpen. In general I'd look to the young pitching to improve the bullpen from last year. (FYI: from 2020-2022 Eflin has a FIP of 3.57 and an xFIP of 3.58, but an ERA of 4.08. If that gap is just a Phillies defense effect, he could be a very nice get.)
If Conforto seems too risky I'd look for a trade to fill the outfield hole and invest the savings in pitching.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 7, 2022 11:35:00 GMT -5
Keith Law's Top 50 FAs - Athletic so subscription. Here's some brief excerpts, although he does not predict length of contract in all predictions: 1. Correa Mid $30+M AAV 2. Turner Low $30M AAV for 6-8 years 3. Swanson Low $30M AAV for 6-8 years 4. Judge $35-40M AAV (Law says wary of anything over 4 yrs but market will exceed that length) 5. Bogaerts low-mid $30M for max of 6 years. Says he should move to 3rd. Those AAVs seem awfully high on the shortstops to me (Turner possibly excepted). E.g., Correa only got $35 million/year for 3 years as a 27 year old and basically added no surplus value in his one year on that deal. And Swanson getting into the 30s seems bonkers to me.
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