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2022- 2023 Offseason Thread
cdj
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Posts: 14,069
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Post by cdj on Nov 8, 2022 11:29:43 GMT -5
If Story is the SS then they sure as hell better be acquiring premium talent at other positions
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2022 11:31:10 GMT -5
I am assuming a trade for second base is worst-case-scenario. If you move Story to SS, you are worse offensively there, and obviously require at least a Story-level player at 2b to even stay even with last year. That will be a pricey trade. So you are looking at two options: cheap trade, big step back for the lineup or break even with the lineup but cost a big prospect package. How is spending on X — or one of the other top SS available — not greatly to be preferred? And none of this is to mention the serious question marks about Story’s defense at short. Yeah, Bogaerts was easily the team's most valuable player this past season (in a "down" year!). They need to maintain that concentrated value in one player just to run in place, which is why the idea of a Profar-type replacement seems so absurd to me - adding four 1.5 WAR players is not an adequate substitute for losing one 6 WAR player. It's got to be one of the big four shortstops or Judge.
And once you've limited it to that list, is there any logic to any of the other options being better than Bogaerts? I don't see any of them coming at a relative discount. And Bogaerts fits best as a guy who might naturally slide out of SS just when Mayer arrives.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 8, 2022 11:33:08 GMT -5
If Story is the SS then they sure as hell better be acquiring premium talent at other positions Spending up to the luxury tax limit is table stakes for preventing a fan riot this offseason
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2022 12:47:59 GMT -5
Not related to the Sox but I see that the Yankees offered Rizzo the QO, have to imagine there is a fair chance he accepts that. I have a hard time seeing a team wanting to offer a contract that would make it worth Rizzo turning down a guaranteed 19M for one year while also having to give up a draft pick. Makes me wonder how much the Yankees are going to have available to spend this offseason. If Rizzo accepts and they go out and sign Judge for the presumed 35ish AAV he is going to get it wouldn't leave them much room if any to bolster the roster in other ways in FA if they want to stay below or around the luxury tax #. Perhaps Hal is going to open the check book and blow by the luxury tax though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 8, 2022 12:58:28 GMT -5
You act like Bloom is against acquiring mediocre players like Profar as opposed to stars like Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer. What? This is being discussed here as a contingency plan in case Xander Bogaerts leaves - not a marginal in-season trade to plug a roster hole. I mean, yes, the Red Sox (and every other team) sometimes sign role players in free agency. It does not follow that they will sign a below-average player, either to start at a position he hasn't played in three years and was bad at when they already have a better option in house, or to downgrade LF.
Xander is Bloom's plan A but it's very possible Boras makes suitors wait. Bloom isnt likely to make a quick strike for another premium SS while he waits for Xander so I can see where he strikes quickly for lesser quality like Profar because it creates options. That way if X leaves he has Profar as another option to play 2b. He has Profar to play LF and allow for a possible Verdugo deal. He has Profar to play 2b if Arroyo gets hurt. If Story winds up at SS they dont have much else for 2n depth options. I dont think Downs or Hamilton are real options and Valdez probably needs more time. They also dont have an obvious leadoff guy and I dont think they'll get in a bidding war for Nimmo. Profar was leading off for the Padres. To me it seems like a Bloom type of move. Get a mid tier guy who can create flexible roster options. That said I would prefer that he simply pay market price to keep Bogaerts and eventually Devers. Yes the Sox have plenty of money to play with. The problem is that some of the best solutions are their own free agents.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2022 13:19:04 GMT -5
What? This is being discussed here as a contingency plan in case Xander Bogaerts leaves - not a marginal in-season trade to plug a roster hole. I mean, yes, the Red Sox (and every other team) sometimes sign role players in free agency. It does not follow that they will sign a below-average player, either to start at a position he hasn't played in three years and was bad at when they already have a better option in house, or to downgrade LF.
Xander is Bloom's plan A but it's very possible Boras makes suitors wait. Bloom isnt likely to make a quick strike for another premium SS while he waits for Xander so I can see where he strikes quickly for lesser quality like Profar because it creates options. That way if X leaves he has Profar as another option to play 2b. He has Profar to play LF and allow for a possible Verdugo deal. He has Profar to play 2b if Arroyo gets hurt. If Story winds up at SS they dont have much else for 2n depth options. I dont think Downs or Hamilton are real options and Valdez probably needs more time. They also dont have an obvious leadoff guy and I dont think they'll get in a bidding war for Nimmo. Profar was leading off for the Padres. To me it seems like a Bloom type of move. Get a mid tier guy who can create flexible roster options. That said I would prefer that he simply pay market price to keep Bogaerts and eventually Devers. Yes the Sox have plenty of money to play with. The problem is that some of the best solutions are their own free agents. Okay, that makes a little more sense than what was originally proposed (getting Profar to start at 2B in the event that Bogaerts leaves and Story shifts to SS). But I still think a scenario where the Red Sox don't sign one of the big four shortstops (or Judge) would be disastrous.
And beyond that I'm just not high on Profar at all - no real defensive value, below average on offense for his career, 6 total WAR in his 3000 PA career, about to turn 30. And he's gonna get paid to be a starter even though I'd project him as worse than the Sox' relevant bench players (Arroyo and Refsnyder).
So I don't actually see this as a Bloomian move. Speculating along these lines, though, I think Drury might make a little more sense than Profar, insofar as he would offer a number of contingent options. He might've just had a fluke season in 2022, but if there's something in the scouting or analytics that the team likes then maybe...
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,780
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Post by mobaz on Nov 8, 2022 13:20:15 GMT -5
theathletic.com/3764267/2022/11/08/mlb-contract-projections-position-players/Great article by Tim Britton on potential FA contracts for top players ($). Pretty fun methodology/analogy effort put in. A few notes: "...making Judge the first $40 million position player in the sport at eight years and $320 million." Trea Turner: 8/$296M Xander: 7/$175M "...In the end, I see enough teams interested in Nimmo to guarantee a sixth year for $132 million total." Lots more detail and rationale, highly recommend a read.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 8, 2022 15:49:34 GMT -5
Really miss Britton on this beat. He's great.
I agree with RSS that on Xander I'd prefer a higher AAV to take a year off, or even two.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 8, 2022 18:30:58 GMT -5
Xander is Bloom's plan A but it's very possible Boras makes suitors wait. Bloom isnt likely to make a quick strike for another premium SS while he waits for Xander so I can see where he strikes quickly for lesser quality like Profar because it creates options. That way if X leaves he has Profar as another option to play 2b. He has Profar to play LF and allow for a possible Verdugo deal. He has Profar to play 2b if Arroyo gets hurt. If Story winds up at SS they dont have much else for 2n depth options. I dont think Downs or Hamilton are real options and Valdez probably needs more time. They also dont have an obvious leadoff guy and I dont think they'll get in a bidding war for Nimmo. Profar was leading off for the Padres. To me it seems like a Bloom type of move. Get a mid tier guy who can create flexible roster options. That said I would prefer that he simply pay market price to keep Bogaerts and eventually Devers. Yes the Sox have plenty of money to play with. The problem is that some of the best solutions are their own free agents. Okay, that makes a little more sense than what was originally proposed (getting Profar to start at 2B in the event that Bogaerts leaves and Story shifts to SS). But I still think a scenario where the Red Sox don't sign one of the big four shortstops (or Judge) would be disastrous.
And beyond that I'm just not high on Profar at all - no real defensive value, below average on offense for his career, 6 total WAR in his 3000 PA career, about to turn 30. And he's gonna get paid to be a starter even though I'd project him as worse than the Sox' relevant bench players (Arroyo and Refsnyder).
So I don't actually see this as a Bloomian move. Speculating along these lines, though, I think Drury might make a little more sense than Profar, insofar as he would offer a number of contingent options. He might've just had a fluke season in 2022, but if there's something in the scouting or analytics that the team likes then maybe...
I don't see Drury. He had what I think is a career year in 2022. He has no real track record of patience at the plate. Profar had 3 of his last 5 years with above average OPS+. He also had 73 walks last year and a .331 OBP which by 2022 standards is decent and probably better than most of what the Sox had last year. I'm not saying, hey let's push out Xander and sign Profar to play 2b, but it would be just like Bloom to get a multi-position averageish guy with some upside and like I said, if he brings back X, great, Profar goes to LF and he creates an option to trade Verdugo or simply keep Verdugo in RF and not get another OF. But I get the sense that while Swansby might be a remote possibility if they lose X, I think Story was signed with the idea that he could shift back to SS, if physically able, should they lose Xander which would mean that it would be cheaper to get a 2b than another SS. I think Arroyo is capable of being an averageish starting 2b but we all know he's not exactly a safe bet to play regularly so yeah Profar could wind up doing some 2b or maybe they get another CF which allows Hernandez to play 2b if need be. But the point is flexibilty which I think Bloom values more than anything, almost like he can go any direction without having to actually commit to anything, sort of like his deadline philosphy, haha. It's kind of ironic. They have all this money to play with, but Xander is their best fit for SS. They need a DH, but a cheaper JDM (nobody is giving him $19 million/year) might be the best option on the market. They need to get at least two starters but it'll be tougher to to what Eovaldi and Wacha has given them - I'm sorry but I don't see DeGrom, Verlander, or Rodon - I could see Senga. So they have all this money to spend but I'm not sure what's out there realistically is much better than what they're losing. I mean, I don't see Judge or a closer like Jansen, so I'm thinking they sign Kiké Hernandez like free agents and maybe wait to see if one of the higher tier free agents winds up on the "wow, what's this guy still doing available (sort of like Story)" And of course there will be an interesting trade or two or three. I'm expecting a winter where it's when is he going to do something and then have a spurt where he does a bunch of stuff. But hopefully he's more aggressive this time around. I think that he needs to be decisive in his actions.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 8, 2022 18:46:40 GMT -5
i really don't know why, but the Paxton signing is the most annoying thing Bloom did in 2022 for me. I am actually pretty mad about it.
I hope he isn't counting on him as a player on this team for 2023. He probably can't pitch next year to begin with.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 8, 2022 18:56:26 GMT -5
this is depressing me, Jurickson Profar ? Let's sign the guy coming off a career year, when he is probably most expensive, so that, on the off chance that he continues his middling career, he will deprive us of signing a really good player for big money. Sound familiar ?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 8, 2022 19:12:07 GMT -5
this is depressing me, Jurickson Profar ? Let's sign the guy coming off a career year, when he is probably most expensive, so that, on the off chance that he continues his middling career, he will deprive us of signing a really good player for big money. Sound familiar ? That would be disappointing. I would have to think that there's one big ticket item that Bloom signs? I think it's more Bloom's MO to spread the money around rather than allocate a large portion of it to two players? The team does have more than one or two problem areas. It's not like 2018 when it was obvious they needed a slugging middle of the order DH and were pretty well set everywhere else. This team has lots of holes to fill so I can see him shopping at the mid tier level to try to fill as many holes as possible. I think he'll also be making a number of trades. Maybe he'll take on another contract to get buy a prospect. Hopefully he does it better this time than he did last year.
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Post by chr31ter on Nov 8, 2022 19:12:50 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2022 19:20:35 GMT -5
Okay, that makes a little more sense than what was originally proposed (getting Profar to start at 2B in the event that Bogaerts leaves and Story shifts to SS). But I still think a scenario where the Red Sox don't sign one of the big four shortstops (or Judge) would be disastrous.
And beyond that I'm just not high on Profar at all - no real defensive value, below average on offense for his career, 6 total WAR in his 3000 PA career, about to turn 30. And he's gonna get paid to be a starter even though I'd project him as worse than the Sox' relevant bench players (Arroyo and Refsnyder).
So I don't actually see this as a Bloomian move. Speculating along these lines, though, I think Drury might make a little more sense than Profar, insofar as he would offer a number of contingent options. He might've just had a fluke season in 2022, but if there's something in the scouting or analytics that the team likes then maybe...
I don't see Drury. He had what I think is a career year in 2022. He has no real track record of patience at the plate. Profar had 3 of his last 5 years with above average OPS+. He also had 73 walks last year and a .331 OBP which by 2022 standards is decent and probably better than most of what the Sox had last year. I'm not saying, hey let's push out Xander and sign Profar to play 2b, but it would be just like Bloom to get a multi-position averageish guy with some upside and like I said, if he brings back X, great, Profar goes to LF and he creates an option to trade Verdugo or simply keep Verdugo in RF and not get another OF. But I get the sense that while Swansby might be a remote possibility if they lose X, I think Story was signed with the idea that he could shift back to SS, if physically able, should they lose Xander which would mean that it would be cheaper to get a 2b than another SS. I think Arroyo is capable of being an averageish starting 2b but we all know he's not exactly a safe bet to play regularly so yeah Profar could wind up doing some 2b or maybe they get another CF which allows Hernandez to play 2b if need be. But the point is flexibilty which I think Bloom values more than anything, almost like he can go any direction without having to actually commit to anything, sort of like his deadline philosphy, haha. It's kind of ironic. They have all this money to play with, but Xander is their best fit for SS. They need a DH, but a cheaper JDM (nobody is giving him $19 million/year) might be the best option on the market. They need to get at least two starters but it'll be tougher to to what Eovaldi and Wacha has given them - I'm sorry but I don't see DeGrom, Verlander, or Rodon - I could see Senga. So they have all this money to spend but I'm not sure what's out there realistically is much better than what they're losing. I mean, I don't see Judge or a closer like Jansen, so I'm thinking they sign Kiké Hernandez like free agents and maybe wait to see if one of the higher tier free agents winds up on the "wow, what's this guy still doing available (sort of like Story)" And of course there will be an interesting trade or two or three. I'm expecting a winter where it's when is he going to do something and then have a spurt where he does a bunch of stuff. But hopefully he's more aggressive this time around. I think that he needs to be decisive in his actions. I don't really see most of this. Xander, yes. JDM? He was a 1 WAR playeer this year and I don't really anticipate an upswing for him; they can certainly use that $22 million to improve the team. (Even if you insisted on getting a full time DH, Abreu would be a clear upgrade.) Eovaldi was likewise fairly useless in 2022, so that's another $17 million that can probably be better spent. It's true that Wacha was a steal for $7 million, so maybe they bring him back? Or maybe they just try to find the new Wacha... But just with the 3 non-Xander players you've mentioned, they spent $46 to get 3.5 fWAR, with only Wacha actually being worth his contract. There's plenty of room for improvement there, and JDM/Eovaldi, at least, do not strike me as the best guys to provide that improvement.
To make a con
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 8, 2022 19:48:40 GMT -5
I don't see Drury. He had what I think is a career year in 2022. He has no real track record of patience at the plate. Profar had 3 of his last 5 years with above average OPS+. He also had 73 walks last year and a .331 OBP which by 2022 standards is decent and probably better than most of what the Sox had last year. I'm not saying, hey let's push out Xander and sign Profar to play 2b, but it would be just like Bloom to get a multi-position averageish guy with some upside and like I said, if he brings back X, great, Profar goes to LF and he creates an option to trade Verdugo or simply keep Verdugo in RF and not get another OF. But I get the sense that while Swansby might be a remote possibility if they lose X, I think Story was signed with the idea that he could shift back to SS, if physically able, should they lose Xander which would mean that it would be cheaper to get a 2b than another SS. I think Arroyo is capable of being an averageish starting 2b but we all know he's not exactly a safe bet to play regularly so yeah Profar could wind up doing some 2b or maybe they get another CF which allows Hernandez to play 2b if need be. But the point is flexibilty which I think Bloom values more than anything, almost like he can go any direction without having to actually commit to anything, sort of like his deadline philosphy, haha. It's kind of ironic. They have all this money to play with, but Xander is their best fit for SS. They need a DH, but a cheaper JDM (nobody is giving him $19 million/year) might be the best option on the market. They need to get at least two starters but it'll be tougher to to what Eovaldi and Wacha has given them - I'm sorry but I don't see DeGrom, Verlander, or Rodon - I could see Senga. So they have all this money to spend but I'm not sure what's out there realistically is much better than what they're losing. I mean, I don't see Judge or a closer like Jansen, so I'm thinking they sign Kiké Hernandez like free agents and maybe wait to see if one of the higher tier free agents winds up on the "wow, what's this guy still doing available (sort of like Story)" And of course there will be an interesting trade or two or three. I'm expecting a winter where it's when is he going to do something and then have a spurt where he does a bunch of stuff. But hopefully he's more aggressive this time around. I think that he needs to be decisive in his actions. I don't really see most of this. Xander, yes. JDM? He was a 1 WAR playeer this year and I don't really anticipate an upswing for him; they can certainly use that $22 million to improve the team. (Even if you insisted on getting a full time DH, Abreu would be a clear upgrade.) Eovaldi was likewise fairly useless in 2022, so that's another $17 million that can probably be better spent. It's true that Wacha was a steal for $7 million, so maybe they bring him back? Or maybe they just try to find the new Wacha... But just with the 3 non-Xander players you've mentioned, they spent $46 to get 3.5 fWAR, with only Wacha actually being worth his contract. There's plenty of room for improvement there, and JDM/Eovaldi, at least, do not strike me as the best guys to provide that improvement. To make a con
Yes, Abreu would be better at DH than JDM but I first want to see if the ChiSox offer a QO to him. I'm not convinced that JDM is totally washed up. He looked a lot better in September. He blamed mechanical issues for his problem. If he has fixed them then maybe there's still something in there. Either way no team is probably spending more than 10 - 12 million on him or giving him more than a year or two. While I agree that Abreu would be more exciting to sign I'm not sure there are a lot better options than JDM as of right now the name Eric Hosmer is being thrown around as a DH candidate. That is not an exciting proposition at all. I think Wacha pitched well but I doubt he pitches anywhere near as well going forward. I wouldn't say Eovaldi was worthless. He pitched to a 3.87 ERA which isnt' bad. And he has had an ERA under 4 in 4 of the past seasons. He's a quality pitcher. His problem is more quantity than quality, but he's still one of the best available free agents around if they're not shopping in the Verlander/DeGrom/Rodon tier, which I assume they're not doing. I think OF and bullpen is where clearer upgrades are available. Speaking of which Mitch Haninger is not being offered a QO (not surprising) - he could be an interesting LF/DH candidate.
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 8, 2022 20:25:04 GMT -5
Ketel Marte is another name that peaks my curiousity. Absolutely no idea if he is available, starting a 5/$75M deal in 2023. He offers some position flexibility. He could slide in at 2B if Story needs to move to SS, or he could play the OF. He is a switch hitter who had been pretty solid up until 2019. Last few years haven't been at that level and he could be a rebound candidate. No idea how much he has been impacted by the shifts
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Post by flourcitydoughboy on Nov 8, 2022 20:51:50 GMT -5
“Yes, Abreu would be better at DH than JDM but I first want to see if the ChiSox offer a QO to him.”
I don’t think the White Sox can offer him the QO because they did so in the past.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 8, 2022 21:37:32 GMT -5
“Yes, Abreu would be better at DH than JDM but I first want to see if the ChiSox offer a QO to him.” I don’t think the White Sox can offer him the QO because they did so in the past. Ah, I didn't realize that. Thought they just simply extended him. In that case, with no draft pick attached, I'd be happy to see Abreu change his Sox.
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Post by jbur521 on Nov 8, 2022 21:43:29 GMT -5
Don't know what it would take, but wouldn't mind trading for Burnes while taking on Yelich's money
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Post by dirtdog on Nov 8, 2022 21:44:06 GMT -5
"Masataka Yoshida, two-time batting champ in NPB, likely to be posted by Orix Buffaloes in the next two weeks," MLB.com's Jon Morosi tweeted Tuesday. "Details are still being discussed, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that Yoshida, a left fielder, will play next season in MLB." Furthermore, Daily Sports Japan has linked the 29-year-old slugger to Boston according to Red Sox Stats. Yoshida hit .335 with 28 doubles, a triple, 21 home runs, 88 RBIs and a 1.008 OPS in 119 games this season. Among the most enticing aspects of his game is his career .327 average across seven seasons in the NPB. www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-sox-reportedly-interested-in-japanese-star-to-bolster-lackluster-outfield?fbclid=IwAR2uBeWmUbTPyOGE2vpJUvqi2fdj9yKCXjhhR8VAac5HtdhXGa2eKuYkWq8
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Post by melvinhoggs on Nov 8, 2022 21:53:33 GMT -5
Names that just feel very Bloom to me going into the offseason:
Michael Brantley – always hits when healthy, can get a discount because of recent health, can rotate him into DH to keep him fresh Max Kepler – not sure he's available, but very good defender who has consistently underperformed his xwOBA so there might be another gear there, shouldn't cost a haul when he hasn't busted out yet Rafael Montero & Robert Suarez – recently good relievers who don't have the track record to make them prohibitively expensive Joey Gallo – would make some people barf looking at his numbers after the trade in 2021, but if you believe you can get him back to something resembling '17-'19 levels it's actually a solid fit
Aside from possibly retaining Bogaerts (or signing another SS if he leaves), I just don't know if I see Bloom going hard on the biggest free agents this offseason with how many holes there are to fill.
Besides SS, I could definitely see an international player being the biggest dollar commitment handed out: Senga or Yoshida.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 8, 2022 22:00:19 GMT -5
I’m going to throw this name in the mix as a potential DH/4th OF: Mitch Haniger.
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 8, 2022 22:03:08 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,932
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 23:15:36 GMT -5
It's kind of ironic. They need a DH, but a cheaper JDM (nobody is giving him $19 million/year) might be the best option on the market.ions. Joc Pererson is an immensely better option.
JDM was a league-average hitter the last four seasons, when you factor in the situation, as he lost the ability to hit good pitching (and saw an excess of it in the AL East). In the abstract, that was a bad contract. But he was a monster in 2018 and they likely don't win that WS without him. No one has any regrets, I think, nor should they. Hopefully some NL Central club that needs a DH will sign JDM, and that'll be a good fit. Here's a comp: .267 / .401 / .528 (217 PA) Willson Contreras vs. NL Central .225 / .307 / .421 (270 PA) Contreras otherwise. (CV had better numbers outside the AL east than Contreras had outside the NL Central.)
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Post by rasimon on Nov 8, 2022 23:26:57 GMT -5
Lots of internet chatter about Yankee fans booing Judge and now Judge has deleted the Yankees from him Instagram. He gone*. *Hawkism I always hated Hawk was the best
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