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2022- 2023 Offseason Thread
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Post by ccoll33 on Nov 9, 2022 0:12:45 GMT -5
Not related to the Sox but I see that the Yankees offered Rizzo the QO, have to imagine there is a fair chance he accepts that. I have a hard time seeing a team wanting to offer a contract that would make it worth Rizzo turning down a guaranteed 19M for one year while also having to give up a draft pick. Makes me wonder how much the Yankees are going to have available to spend this offseason. If Rizzo accepts and they go out and sign Judge for the presumed 35ish AAV he is going to get it wouldn't leave them much room if any to bolster the roster in other ways in FA if they want to stay below or around the luxury tax #. Perhaps Hal is going to open the check book and blow by the luxury tax though. I agree that the QO makes it improbable that another team will forfeit the draft pick but it does not mean that he will accept the QO. This will set the stage for a win-win contract for rizzo and the yankees he will not get 19 aav that the aav is but he will get a more guaranteed contract. My guess is that he will end up with a 3 year 48 million dollar contract. Also Judge to the Giants?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 9, 2022 0:39:11 GMT -5
It's kind of ironic. They need a DH, but a cheaper JDM (nobody is giving him $19 million/year) might be the best option on the market.ions. Joc Pererson is an immensely better option.
JDM was a league-average hitter the last four seasons, when you factor in the situation, as he lost the ability to hit good pitching (and saw an excess of it in the AL East). In the abstract, that was a bad contract. But he was a monster in 2018 and they likely don't win that WS without him. No one has any regrets, I think, nor should they. Hopefully some NL Central club that needs a DH will sign JDM, and that'll be a good fit. Here's a comp: .267 / .401 / .528 (217 PA) Willson Contreras vs. NL Central .225 / .307 / .421 (270 PA) Contreras otherwise. (CV had better numbers outside the AL east than Contreras had outside the NL Central.)
Maybe he is. Maybe he isn't. Pederson was certainly better last year. No argument there. He wasn't better in 2021 and he wasn't good in 2020, not that JDM was any good in 2020 either. Pederson is a platoon guy while JDM is an every day player so when a lefty start Pederson will be on the bench. If he isnt, his numbers would take a hit. If the Sox signed Pedersom to DH I'd be fine with that although they'll need a RH batter who can DH against lefties...I'm sure you have Dalbec in mind as you have a higher opinion of him than I do. That Madataka Yoshida rumor is interesting although it also seemed like a foregone conclusion that Seiya Suzuki was coming to Boston, too. Yoshida appears to have a really good hit tool. He's got some pop but I'm not sure how much of that transfers to the majors. He's only 5-8, 175 lbs. But perhaps the hit tool does carry over somewhat? Perhaps he is similar to Verdugo offensively? Sounds like he has an excellent BB/K ratio to go along with a good hit tool so perhaps he'd be a viable candidate to lead off.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2022 4:52:36 GMT -5
Joc Pererson is an immensely better option.
JDM was a league-average hitter the last four seasons, when you factor in the situation, as he lost the ability to hit good pitching (and saw an excess of it in the AL East). In the abstract, that was a bad contract. But he was a monster in 2018 and they likely don't win that WS without him. No one has any regrets, I think, nor should they. Hopefully some NL Central club that needs a DH will sign JDM, and that'll be a good fit. Here's a comp: .267 / .401 / .528 (217 PA) Willson Contreras vs. NL Central .225 / .307 / .421 (270 PA) Contreras otherwise. (CV had better numbers outside the AL east than Contreras had outside the NL Central.)
Maybe he is. Maybe he isn't. Pederson was certainly better last year. No argument there. He wasn't better in 2021 and he wasn't good in 2020, not that JDM was any good in 2020 either. Pederson is a platoon guy while JDM is an every day player so when a lefty start Pederson will be on the bench. If he isnt, his numbers would take a hit. If the Sox signed Pedersom to DH I'd be fine with that although they'll need a RH batter who can DH against lefties...I'm sure you have Dalbec in mind as you have a higher opinion of him than I do. That Madataka Yoshida rumor is interesting although it also seemed like a foregone conclusion that Seiya Suzuki was coming to Boston, too. Yoshida appears to have a really good hit tool. He's got some pop but I'm not sure how much of that transfers to the majors. He's only 5-8, 175 lbs. But perhaps the hit tool does carry over somewhat? Perhaps he is similar to Verdugo offensively? Sounds like he has an excellent BB/K ratio to go along with a good hit tool so perhaps he'd be a viable candidate to lead off. Sox have been facing fewer LHP of late, more like 25% or less versus the usual 33%. You don't need a great platoon bat; Refsyfer and sometimes Arroto will be fine. Laureano (who I'm now as high as possible on and you'll see why in a bit) kills LHP, career 121 wRC+, 139 away from the Coliseum. He takes Pederson's spot in the batting order, more or less, and Refsnyder takes Laureon's spot in the bottom of the order.
Dalbec will get plenty of chances, too, if he's the first guy called up when a RHO is on the IL, which is what I'd do with him.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 9, 2022 6:41:26 GMT -5
Not related to the Sox but I see that the Yankees offered Rizzo the QO, have to imagine there is a fair chance he accepts that. I have a hard time seeing a team wanting to offer a contract that would make it worth Rizzo turning down a guaranteed 19M for one year while also having to give up a draft pick. Makes me wonder how much the Yankees are going to have available to spend this offseason. If Rizzo accepts and they go out and sign Judge for the presumed 35ish AAV he is going to get it wouldn't leave them much room if any to bolster the roster in other ways in FA if they want to stay below or around the luxury tax #. Perhaps Hal is going to open the check book and blow by the luxury tax though. I agree that the QO makes it improbable that another team will forfeit the draft pick but it does not mean that he will accept the QO. This will set the stage for a win-win contract for rizzo and the yankees he will not get 19 aav that the aav is but he will get a more guaranteed contract. My guess is that he will end up with a 3 year 48 million dollar contract. Also Judge to the Giants? I think youre probably correct that the Yankees and rizzo probably come to a multi year deal rather than him playing on the QO. But Is it really a win for the Yankees to pay a 33 year old Rizzo 16 mil for 3 years? If I'm the Yankees I'm not looking to go more than 2 years at closer to 15 mil. Then again if thats the case and I'm Rizzo I perhaps just take the QO.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 9, 2022 7:02:13 GMT -5
this is depressing me, Jurickson Profar ? Let's sign the guy coming off a career year, when he is probably most expensive, so that, on the off chance that he continues his middling career, he will deprive us of signing a really good player for big money. Sound familiar ? That would be disappointing. I would have to think that there's one big ticket item that Bloom signs? I think it's more Bloom's MO to spread the money around rather than allocate a large portion of it to two players? The team does have more than one or two problem areas. It's not like 2018 when it was obvious they needed a slugging middle of the order DH and were pretty well set everywhere else. This team has lots of holes to fill so I can see him shopping at the mid tier level to try to fill as many holes as possible. I think he'll also be making a number of trades. Maybe he'll take on another contract to get buy a prospect. Hopefully he does it better this time than he did last year. But at some point you have to sign a big ticket item. Especially if you're charging fans the highest prices in the league. They screwed up on Boegarts and never should have let him test the market. Theres zero chance the Sox have the highest offer for him. Could they still get him? Sure. But they won't have the highest or maybe even the 2nd highest offer. At the end of the day its a dangerous game to play and its going to bite them. Profar can be okay I guess but he shouldn't be a priority other than being a utility jack of all trades player. He's going to make a decent amount and I don't want to be the team giving him the bag.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 9, 2022 8:17:27 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 9, 2022 9:15:19 GMT -5
I'd take Xandy back for the 6/168 projection he's throwing out in a heart beat.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 9, 2022 9:36:26 GMT -5
That would be disappointing. I would have to think that there's one big ticket item that Bloom signs? I think it's more Bloom's MO to spread the money around rather than allocate a large portion of it to two players? The team does have more than one or two problem areas. It's not like 2018 when it was obvious they needed a slugging middle of the order DH and were pretty well set everywhere else. This team has lots of holes to fill so I can see him shopping at the mid tier level to try to fill as many holes as possible. I think he'll also be making a number of trades. Maybe he'll take on another contract to get buy a prospect. Hopefully he does it better this time than he did last year. But at some point you have to sign a big ticket item. Especially if you're charging fans the highest prices in the league. They screwed up on Boegarts and never should have let him test the market. Theres zero chance the Sox have the highest offer for him. Could they still get him? Sure. But they won't have the highest or maybe even the 2nd highest offer. At the end of the day its a dangerous game to play and its going to bite them. Profar can be okay I guess but he shouldn't be a priority other than being a utility jack of all trades player. He's going to make a decent amount and I don't want to be the team giving him the bag. Definitely, If the Sox do not get one of the 30 mil dollar prizes, or potentially albatrosses at some point, they need to sign a couple players from the next tier down. Swanson, Nimmo, Rondon ?, etc, to avoid falling further off the pace for playoff contention. The next great Sox team will need established talent to blend with the additions from within. Story was a good start. Spending 50 mil on two free agents to be part of that next core would be another win. Sox need to win this winter.
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Post by kwodes on Nov 9, 2022 9:41:39 GMT -5
Nimmo = JD Drew I'd love Nimmo, Rodon, Correa, Jansen, Chad Green. A defense that starts with Correa and story (post shift) up the middle and has an OF of Verdugo-Kiké-Nimmo is pretty damn good
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 9, 2022 9:53:59 GMT -5
I'm in agreement on both Joc and Laureano. With Casas and Hosmer both on the roster, why not go with a Lefty lineup and use Hosmer at DH and Joc in LF? Assuming they can bring Bogaerts back?
Lineup vs RHP RF Alex Verdugo SS Xander Bogaerts 3B Rafael Devers 2B Trevor Story LF Joc Pedersen 1B Tristan Casas DH Eric Hosmer CF Ramon Lauerano C Reese McGuire
That lineup would mash RHP.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 9, 2022 10:11:18 GMT -5
I'd take Xandy back for the 6/168 projection he's throwing out in a heart beat. What do they have for Correa/Turner/Swanson?
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 9, 2022 10:16:15 GMT -5
I'd take Xandy back for the 6/168 projection he's throwing out in a heart beat. What do they have for Correa/Turner/Swanson? Turner 8/272 Correa 8/265 Swanson 6/150 If those projections are in the ballpark for each of those SS gimme X back at that over the other 3. Swanson for that I wouldn't hate either but I do fear some regression, I like the player just don't know that he's a 25AAV type of player. Turner and Correa are just too long of contracts at that AAV for me, once again assuming that's in the ballpark of the final totals.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 9, 2022 10:29:29 GMT -5
What do they have for Correa/Turner/Swanson? Turner 8/272 Correa 8/265 Swanson 6/150 If those projections are in the ballpark for each of those SS gimme X back at that over the other 3. Swanson for that I wouldn't hate either but I do fear some regression, I like the player just don't know that he's a 25AAV type of player. Turner and Correa are just too long of contracts at that AAV for me, once again assuming that's in the ballpark of the final totals. As these projections come out, I'm settling on a pretty decided preference order of Bogaerts, then Correa, then Turner/Swanson.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 9, 2022 10:41:29 GMT -5
Turner 8/272 Correa 8/265 Swanson 6/150 If those projections are in the ballpark for each of those SS gimme X back at that over the other 3. Swanson for that I wouldn't hate either but I do fear some regression, I like the player just don't know that he's a 25AAV type of player. Turner and Correa are just too long of contracts at that AAV for me, once again assuming that's in the ballpark of the final totals. As these projections come out, I'm settling on a pretty decided preference order of Bogaerts, then Correa, then Turner/Swanson. Call me crazy but I'd push an offer to X up to the AAV for the Turner/Correa ballpark if it allowed the Sox to sign X for 5 years instead of 6. Don't know if he'd take it but 5/165 doesn't seem that crazy to me and cuts out a year of downside in terms of age regression. Would help to maintain some flexibility and I really just hate the idea of an 8 year deal for pretty much any player. Of the Correa/Turner group I could talk myself into being okay with giving it to Correa being it'd be his 28-36 year seasons as that sounds much better to me than signing Turner for his 30-38 year seasons.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 9, 2022 10:59:30 GMT -5
Said this on the pod that'll drop tonight, but in a vacuum, Correa is probably the best on-field fit, but outside of that vacuum, considering things like money, I prefer Bogaerts, especially if he'll be willing to move off short if/when Mayer is ready. Obviously depends on what these guys actually get paid, but based on the projections across the board, give me Bogaerts at 5 or 6 years for like $28-30m over Correa at 8 or more for $33-$35m.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 9, 2022 11:18:42 GMT -5
I'm in agreement on both Joc and Laureano. With Casas and Hosmer both on the roster, why not go with a Lefty lineup and use Hosmer at DH and Joc in LF? Assuming they can bring Bogaerts back? Lineup vs RHPRF Alex Verdugo SS Xander Bogaerts 3B Rafael Devers 2B Trevor Story LF Joc Pedersen 1B Tristan Casas DH Eric Hosmer CF Ramon Lauerano C Reese McGuire That lineup would mash RHP. Kiki, Arroyo, Wong and one other tbd ( Dalbec ?) on the bench. This is a deeper roster than 2022 and does allow space for Dalbec, Duran or Cordero to stick if one of them finally get it. With the remaining available salary a #1 level starting pitcher would be imperative.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 9, 2022 11:18:46 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Nov 9, 2022 11:31:05 GMT -5
Said this on the pod that'll drop tonight, but in a vacuum, Correa is probably the best on-field fit, but outside of that vacuum, considering things like money, I prefer Bogaerts, especially if he'll be willing to move off short if/when Mayer is ready. Obviously depends on what these guys actually get paid, but based on the projections across the board, give me Bogaerts at 5 or 6 years for like $28-30m over Correa at 8 or more for $33-$35m. If Correa gets 8 years and a 33-35 AAV for his age 28-35 seasons, what sort of atrocious job did Boras do last winter to get him only a 35 AAV for three years at ages 27-29 with an opt out after one year?
Why, you'd almost think Boras had an incentive to get a bad deal for his client so that he'd opt out after only one year, thereby allowing Boras to take a full commission on a long-term deal that could have been negotiated last year except that then the commission would have gone to Correa's previous agent...
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 9, 2022 11:33:30 GMT -5
I'm in agreement on both Joc and Laureano. With Casas and Hosmer both on the roster, why not go with a Lefty lineup and use Hosmer at DH and Joc in LF? Assuming they can bring Bogaerts back? Lineup vs RHPRF Alex Verdugo SS Xander Bogaerts 3B Rafael Devers 2B Trevor Story LF Joc Pedersen 1B Tristan Casas DH Eric Hosmer CF Ramon Lauerano C Reese McGuire That lineup would mash RHP. Kiki, Arroyo, Wong and one other tbd ( Dalbec ?) on the bench. This is a deeper roster than 2022 and does allow space for Dalbec, Duran or Cordero to stick if one of them finally get it. With the remaining available salary a #1 level starting pitcher would be imperative. Forgot about Refsynder. He is a lock for the bench.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 9, 2022 12:38:18 GMT -5
A couple points from Speier here seem notable: The fact that there were "several" conversations with the A's about Murphy makes me think they're not so far apart on whatever the prospect cost would be. A deal here wouldn't surprise me. And that kind of has me licking my chops - he's Arb 1 so won't add a lot to payroll; they could add a star player before even dipping into the $80 million they have to spend on other upgrades, and suddenly we're looking at a roster that stacks up with any in the division.
Nola as a cheaper option (in terms of trade cost) is also intriguing, though crazily he's already 32 (and also Arb 1) - didn't make his MLB debut until age 29.
...So actually, maybe it's more than $80 million they'll have to spend. Though I suppose another way to read that quote is that ownership gave a directive to stay under the CBT in 2023 no matter what they did in 2022.
(By the way, if staying over the CBT last season don't actually affect future spending decisions will the surprisingly strident complaints about that let up?)
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 9, 2022 12:49:04 GMT -5
Murphy is going to be real painful to acquire. One of the big three Casas/Bello/Mayer plus Mata or something like that.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 9, 2022 12:50:53 GMT -5
Xander is Bloom's plan A but it's very possible Boras makes suitors wait. Bloom isnt likely to make a quick strike for another premium SS while he waits for Xander so I can see where he strikes quickly for lesser quality like Profar because it creates options. That way if X leaves he has Profar as another option to play 2b. He has Profar to play LF and allow for a possible Verdugo deal. He has Profar to play 2b if Arroyo gets hurt. If Story winds up at SS they dont have much else for 2n depth options. I dont think Downs or Hamilton are real options and Valdez probably needs more time. They also dont have an obvious leadoff guy and I dont think they'll get in a bidding war for Nimmo. Profar was leading off for the Padres. To me it seems like a Bloom type of move. Get a mid tier guy who can create flexible roster options. That said I would prefer that he simply pay market price to keep Bogaerts and eventually Devers. Yes the Sox have plenty of money to play with. The problem is that some of the best solutions are their own free agents. Okay, that makes a little more sense than what was originally proposed (getting Profar to start at 2B in the event that Bogaerts leaves and Story shifts to SS). But I still think a scenario where the Red Sox don't sign one of the big four shortstops (or Judge) would be disastrous.
And beyond that I'm just not high on Profar at all - no real defensive value, below average on offense for his career, 6 total WAR in his 3000 PA career, about to turn 30. And he's gonna get paid to be a starter even though I'd project him as worse than the Sox' relevant bench players (Arroyo and Refsnyder).
So I don't actually see this as a Bloomian move. Speculating along these lines, though, I think Drury might make a little more sense than Profar, insofar as he would offer a number of contingent options. He might've just had a fluke season in 2022, but if there's something in the scouting or analytics that the team likes then maybe...
Profar is better than Danny Santana or Marwin Gonzalez (not a very high bar), and he is better than using Jeter Downs when Arroyo gets hurt. Depth is good, and it does not stop them from re-signing X.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 9, 2022 12:56:04 GMT -5
Murphy is going to be real painful to acquire. One of the big three Casas/Bello/Mayer plus Mata or something like that. While I would tend to agree, sometimes the A's do some weird things with trades and go for quantity rather than quality. That being said if it did cost one of Casas/Bello/Mayer and then some I back away and go another route.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 9, 2022 13:02:03 GMT -5
i really don't know why, but the Paxton signing is the most annoying thing Bloom did in 2022 for me. I am actually pretty mad about it. I hope he isn't counting on him as a player on this team for 2023. He probably can't pitch next year to begin with. Paxton went a large way to pushing Bloom over the CBT…. IMO a bad deal from the start (I understand why he did it, I just think it was a bad gamble).
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Post by incandenza on Nov 9, 2022 13:02:08 GMT -5
Murphy is going to be real painful to acquire. One of the big three Casas/Bello/Mayer plus Mata or something like that. Or maybe one of Rafaela/Yorke/Bleis + Mata + Paulino + Wong or something? It would surprise me if Bloom were willing to trade one of the big three.
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