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Post by Guidas on Nov 7, 2022 12:38:05 GMT -5
Keith Law's Top 50 FAs - Athletic so subscription. Here's some brief excerpts, although he does not predict length of contract in all predictions: 1. Correa Mid $30+M AAV 2. Turner Low $30M AAV for 6-8 years 3. Swanson Low $30M AAV for 6-8 years 4. Judge $35-40M AAV (Law says wary of anything over 4 yrs but market will exceed that length) 5. Bogaerts low-mid $30M for max of 6 years. Says he should move to 3rd. Those AAVs seem awfully high on the shortstops to me (Turner possibly excepted). E.g., Correa only got $35 million/year for 3 years as a 27 year old and basically added no surplus value in his one year on that deal. And Swanson getting into the 30s seems bonkers to me. I honestly have no idea what the will be. Then again, almost every year they seem to be higher than popular predictions. I could see it getting silly on someone like Judge, Turner or Correa, or maybe deGrom (though not in years for the latter). We are living in a world with 8% inflation that looks like it's not going anywhere, so no doubt agents will try to inflate that in projections going forward a few years, too.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 7, 2022 14:45:03 GMT -5
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Post by cba82 on Nov 7, 2022 18:01:25 GMT -5
Tommy, we hardly knew ye.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 7, 2022 18:07:18 GMT -5
Those AAVs seem awfully high on the shortstops to me (Turner possibly excepted). E.g., Correa only got $35 million/year for 3 years as a 27 year old and basically added no surplus value in his one year on that deal. And Swanson getting into the 30s seems bonkers to me. I honestly have no idea what the will be. Then again, almost every year they seem to be higher than popular predictions. I could see it getting silly on someone like Judge, Turner or Correa, or maybe deGrom (though not in years for the latter). We are living in a world with 8% inflation that looks like it's not going anywhere, so no doubt agents will try to inflate that in projections going forward a few years, too. I hope the MFY spend something ridiculous on Judge like $45,000,000 per year just so they have less to replace all their other aging players. Lol. The MFY have such a wonderful business model….
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Post by xdmo on Nov 7, 2022 18:44:41 GMT -5
Not sure what or why the Angels are putting this out there? They might be the worst run team in baseball with all their financial resources they've had.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 7, 2022 20:04:29 GMT -5
The Red Sox are clearing the decks to sign Joc Pederson
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 7, 2022 20:33:17 GMT -5
So we traded for Pham, stayed over the cap and then didn’t resign him. Yet still paid a buyout.
Seems like malpractice to me. I didn’t want to trade for him but might as well keep him once you did. Seems dumb to me.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 7, 2022 20:36:58 GMT -5
So we traded for Pham, stayed over the cap and then didn’t resign him. Yet still paid a buyout. Seems like malpractice to me. I didn’t want to trade for him but might as well keep him once you did. Seems dumb to me. Where to start... They can still sign him, they didn't want to give him a 5mil raise, Cincy pays the buyout, and he wasn't the difference for the cap threshold
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 7, 2022 20:52:19 GMT -5
They could’ve easily got under the cap if they didn’t trade for him.
I did not know Cincy paid the buyout though. My bad.
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Post by chr31ter on Nov 7, 2022 20:59:47 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 7, 2022 21:05:59 GMT -5
They could’ve easily got under the cap if they didn’t trade for him. I did not know Cincy paid the buyout though. My bad. OK, but that would've involved tanking from the deadline on
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 7, 2022 21:38:46 GMT -5
They could’ve easily got under the cap if they didn’t trade for him. I did not know Cincy paid the buyout though. My bad. OK, but that would've involved tanking from the deadline on They sunk like a stone anyways which was hardly surprising given the roster they had. They were clearly the 5th best team in the AL East.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 7, 2022 22:36:00 GMT -5
I'm going shopping at the crowdsource mart:
Bogaerts - $28 million Conforto - $14 million Wacha - $8 million Vazquez - $8 million Pederson - $10 million Eflin - $9 million Not listed, but also Hill - $4 million, and another $5 million on 5 John Schreibers
You could put together a lineup with no hitters that project to be below-average other than catcher; Kiké would be the weakest link, and that's a pretty solid weakest link.
Vazquez wants to be here, he and McGuire would make a great catching platoon, so why not.
With a rotation of Sale, Wacha, Whitlock, Bello, and Pivetta, Eflin and Hill could bolster either the rotation (when needed) or the bullpen. In general I'd look to the young pitching to improve the bullpen from last year. (FYI: from 2020-2022 Eflin has a FIP of 3.57 and an xFIP of 3.58, but an ERA of 4.08. If that gap is just a Phillies defense effect, he could be a very nice get.)
If Conforto seems too risky I'd look for a trade to fill the outfield hole and invest the savings in pitching.
Well Eflin rejected his $15 million option so this projection was obviously way too low. Less than a day in and already my offseason plan is in tatters...
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 7, 2022 23:03:22 GMT -5
So we traded for Pham, stayed over the cap and then didn’t resign him. Yet still paid a buyout. Seems like malpractice to me. I didn’t want to trade for him but might as well keep him once you did. Seems dumb to me. Where to start... They can still sign him, they didn't want to give him a 5mil raise, Cincy pays the buyout, and he wasn't the difference for the cap threshold He also wasn't any good. He put up an 86 OPS-plus and -.3 WAR (B-Ref). And he was part of the reason they went over the LTT. I'm not looking to reopen the discussion about whether they should have been buyers or sellers at the deadline but I'm on the side that says they should have been doing everything possible to get under the LTT. That means NOT taking on guys like Tommy Pham, who had an AAV of $7.5M and was rocking a .6 WAR in 91 games when they acquired him.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 8, 2022 0:41:25 GMT -5
Where to start... They can still sign him, they didn't want to give him a 5mil raise, Cincy pays the buyout, and he wasn't the difference for the cap threshold He also wasn't any good. He put up an 86 OPS-plus and -.3 WAR (B-Ref). And he was part of the reason they went over the LTT. I'm not looking to reopen the discussion about whether they should have been buyers or sellers at the deadline but I'm on the side that says they should have been doing everything possible to get under the LTT. That means NOT taking on guys like Tommy Pham, who had an AAV of $7.5M and was rocking a .6 WAR in 91 games when they acquired him. Ya I haven't seen another other than guy be upset that they aren't re-signing him.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 8, 2022 1:34:56 GMT -5
Should Bogaerts sign elsewhere, it seems the plan is to move Trevor Story -- who inked a six-year, $140 million contract last offseason -- back to shortstop, where he played exclusively for the first six years of his career. According to sources, the Red Sox have started reaching out to some teams regarding the availability of their second basemen, hoping to figure out Plan B in the likely event that Bogaerts leaves Boston. www.mlb.com/news/gm-meetings-intrigue-includes-opt-outs-qualifying-offers
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Post by xdmo on Nov 8, 2022 2:14:45 GMT -5
Jurickson Profar seems like the best free agent second baseman on the market if they go towards that route.
Jean Segura seems like a close second if he's willing to take a short term, one year deal.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 8, 2022 6:51:58 GMT -5
Not sure what or why the Angels are putting this out there? They might be the worst run team in baseball with all their financial resources they've had. The Angels wasted the prime of a generational talent by not investing in pitching. They then bring in Ohtani who does both and found a way to waste TWO generational talents! How the hell is that even possible?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 8, 2022 6:59:26 GMT -5
Jurickson Profar seems like the best free agent second baseman on the market if they go towards that route. Jean Segura seems like a close second if he's willing to take a short term, one year deal. I can see the Sox signing Profar. He can lead off, something they lack. He can play 2b or lf. So if/when the Sox lose Xander they could shift Story to SS of they think his health allows him to and they can play Profar at 2b. They can also sign Profar to play LF in a scenario that has nothing to do with the Bogaerts saga. They can keep Verdugo in RF or entertain the idea of trading him. Profar is a decent player, not that going from a DP combo of X and Story to Story and Profar is an improvement, though.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2022 8:53:34 GMT -5
Why on earth would they sign Profar? He's mediocre offensively and lousy defensively - so bad, in fact, that he had to move off 2B three years ago. He has had one 2 WAR season in his career. As for his being a leadoff guy, he has a career .322 OBP and his baserunning stats have been bad the last two years. And he's about to turn 30. This option is a thousand times worse than just going with Arroyo.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 8, 2022 8:54:24 GMT -5
Not sure what or why the Angels are putting this out there? They might be the worst run team in baseball with all their financial resources they've had. The Angels wasted the prime of a generational talent by not investing in pitching. They then bring in Ohtani who does both and found a way to waste TWO generational talents! How the hell is that even possible? Huh? Weren’t the Angels that team that spent all their draft picks on pitchers recently? Lol.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 8, 2022 10:37:46 GMT -5
Why on earth would they sign Profar? He's mediocre offensively and lousy defensively - so bad, in fact, that he had to move off 2B three years ago. He has had one 2 WAR season in his career. As for his being a leadoff guy, he has a career .322 OBP and his baserunning stats have been bad the last two years. And he's about to turn 30. This option is a thousand times worse than just going with Arroyo. You act like Bloom is against acquiring mediocre/averageish players like Profar as opposed to stars like Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer. He'd be a quick sign hedge who they could play at 2b if need be or move to lf. I'm not saying I want him. Just trying to anticipate what Bloom will do. I'd like Arroyo to okay 2b if need be but the guy is often hurt.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2022 11:03:43 GMT -5
The deadline for QO's and player/club options is Thursday at 5 pm, right? Figured we should have a tiny bit more clarity on Eovaldi/Wacha/Paxton as rotation options by then
Unrelated, but I kinda wish there was some artificial deadline that made last winter pre/post lockout so fun. Like a signing moratorium from like December 24th at midnight to like mid/late January feels like it'd get you a bunch of crazy deals at the buzzer Christmas Eve. Can't ever see it happening though
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2022 11:05:25 GMT -5
Why on earth would they sign Profar? He's mediocre offensively and lousy defensively - so bad, in fact, that he had to move off 2B three years ago. He has had one 2 WAR season in his career. As for his being a leadoff guy, he has a career .322 OBP and his baserunning stats have been bad the last two years. And he's about to turn 30. This option is a thousand times worse than just going with Arroyo. You act like Bloom is against acquiring mediocre players like Profar as opposed to stars like Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer. What? This is being discussed here as a contingency plan in case Xander Bogaerts leaves - not a marginal in-season trade to plug a roster hole.
I mean, yes, the Red Sox (and every other team) sometimes sign role players in free agency. It does not follow that they will sign a below-average player, either to start at a position he hasn't played in three years and was bad at when they already have a better option in house, or to downgrade LF.
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Post by manfred on Nov 8, 2022 11:10:19 GMT -5
I am assuming a trade for second base is worst-case-scenario. If you move Story to SS, you are worse offensively there, and obviously require at least a Story-level player at 2b to even stay even with last year. That will be a pricey trade. So you are looking at two options: cheap trade, big step back for the lineup or break even with the lineup but cost a big prospect package.
How is spending on X — or one of the other top SS available — not greatly to be preferred?
And none of this is to mention the serious question marks about Story’s defense at short.
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