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Red Sox Sign Kenley Jansen (2 years, 32 million)
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Post by manfred on Dec 7, 2022 10:53:03 GMT -5
I will add to what I said above: decent potential this gets added to the Melancon, Bailey, Gagne list of bullpen nightmares. Eh, it’s impossible it goes as bad as the first two just by nature of the fact that they didn’t trade a good cost controlled young player for them. I’m not a fan just for resource allocation purposes, because now I think they need a trade somewhere (outfield, MI or SP). But I don’t think the deal itself can be as bad as the first two there. I mostly mean a guy who comes, falls off a cliff, and vanishes before you know it.
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Post by ortiz on Dec 7, 2022 10:53:17 GMT -5
I'd be fine with this if the Martin deal didn't happen but committing that much money with the rest of the holes on the roster feels, at the very least, premature. I wonder how much of this was them pivoting after striking out on other targets and feeling some pressure.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 7, 2022 10:53:28 GMT -5
Per Fangraphs, Kenley hasn't put up a season worth at least $16 million since 2017 when he was 29 years old. We're now paying 2/32 for his age 35 and 36 seasons. Even given the market correction towards paying relievers more, this feels richer than he deserves. 4.3 fWAR over the last 4 full seasons (not including 2020). With that said, I have to say that it will be nice to have a good bullpen this year. That’s old value though, everything is inflated now Not to say I like the signing- I thought I had responded to the Kenley idea last night being like “pass” but apparently I didn’t hit send. The bullpen should be solid at least To add to this, the $/win calculation for relievers is just different. The number is higher. I still don’t like it but you can’t just use the average market rate because that’s not how consistent relievers get paid.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 7, 2022 10:54:34 GMT -5
Eh, it’s impossible it goes as bad as the first two just by nature of the fact that they didn’t trade a good cost controlled young player for them. I’m not a fan just for resource allocation purposes, because now I think they need a trade somewhere (outfield, MI or SP). But I don’t think the deal itself can be as bad as the first two there. I mostly mean a guy who comes, falls off a cliff, and vanishes before you know it. Totally agree there’s a real fear that from day one he just doesn’t look right and never recovers and that’s why I hate signing any reliever to this contract.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 7, 2022 10:54:45 GMT -5
I'd be fine with this if the Martin deal didn't happen but committing that much money with the rest of the holes on the roster feels, at the very least, premature. I wonder how much of this was them pivoting after striking out on other targets and feeling some pressure. 100% You now have Martin Barnes and Jansen as highly paid bullpen arms. That's a ton of money next year for the pen. Unnecessary.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 7, 2022 10:54:46 GMT -5
32 million? What the fuck? I guess this means Houck is back in the rotation... He's literally the last closer on the market. This isn't a "what the fuck". Look around free agency at what other players are getting
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 7, 2022 10:56:20 GMT -5
Per Fangraphs, Kenley hasn't put up a season worth at least $16 million since 2017 when he was 29 years old. We're now paying 2/32 for his age 35 and 36 seasons. Even given the market correction towards paying relievers more, this feels richer than he deserves. 4.3 fWAR over the last 4 full seasons (not including 2020). With that said, I have to say that it will be nice to have a good bullpen this year. That’s old value though, everything is inflated now Not to say I like the signing- I thought I had responded to the Kenley idea last night being like “pass” but apparently I didn’t hit send. The bullpen should be solid at least Even with the inflated values we've seen I don't like this. If we assume he doesn't decline, stays healthy, and just maintains his 2018-2022 form, are you comfortable paying $15 million / WAR for a reliever? For comparison's sake, Martin was worth 3.9 fWAR over the same period. I'd much rather have two guys like him than one Jansen.
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Post by manfred on Dec 7, 2022 10:56:53 GMT -5
The biggest part of this to me is shifting everyone down a slot. Barnes won’t close, but if he can keep his improvement from the end of the year, he could go back to being a good 8th inning guy. That frees Martin to be a jack-of-all-trades. That frees Whitlock to start. And in freeing Whitlock to start, it means that they really just need to sign one starter, not the two that had been tossed around. Hell, maybe even Houck gets freed up to start.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 7, 2022 10:57:58 GMT -5
You guys beat me to it. I started a thread on this without seeing this one. I just deleted it.
Now let's sign X, so that we have an offense worthy of a closer. Nothing's a bigger waste of time than a closer without any leads to protect.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 7, 2022 10:57:59 GMT -5
Even tho it didn’t look like it against us he has a strong playoff track record too. They’re paying a bit for that.
Overall I guess I’m ok with it. I guess this is just the market. Definitely plenty of risk here though and I’m not gonna disagree with those who dislike it
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 7, 2022 10:58:10 GMT -5
32 million? What the fuck? I guess this means Houck is back in the rotation... He's literally the last closer on the market. This isn't a "what the fuck". Look around free agency at what other players are getting It is though. They literally have lots of other holes and decided to spend on the bullpen. I get that you will defend Bloom on every move he makes, but there's more pressing needs. Houck would have been fine there. They might have X amount left to play with but by using 25 million or so of that money in the pen it leaves them a limited amount to get another starter, DH, RF, SS/2B (depending on Boegarts). So its not really great that they're choosing to spend this amount on the pen. Jansen is fine. The construction is not. I'd rather Senga
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Post by curtisw on Dec 7, 2022 10:58:13 GMT -5
Yeah it’s pretty interesting the heavy emphasis on the bullpen, a surprise for me. They absolutely must have some creative ideas and some things lined up because there is no way they think this offense as presently constructed is going to giving too many games over to the bullpen to close. This Jansen signing makes me wonder especially. He doesn’t strike me as the type of guy teams get who don’t really want to compete in the near term. So the Red Sox must clearly believe they can make the proper changes to get back to contention. What those will be seem like anyone’s guess now.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,053
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Post by cdj on Dec 7, 2022 10:59:28 GMT -5
He's literally the last closer on the market. This isn't a "what the fuck". Look around free agency at what other players are getting It is though. They literally have lots of other holes and decided to spend on the bullpen. I get that you will defend Bloom on every move he makes, but there's more pressing needs. Houck would have been fine there. Damn didn’t realize they have zero dollars now. Thanks for the heads up
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Post by briam on Dec 7, 2022 10:59:31 GMT -5
If he can just be an above average 9th inning guy he helps the entire bullpen. Having Martin, Houck, Barnes (fingers crossed), Schreiber, and Joely as the bridge to the 9th it should be a quality bullpen, just as long as Kenley holds up.
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Post by semperfisox on Dec 7, 2022 10:59:45 GMT -5
He's literally the last closer on the market. This isn't a "what the fuck". Look around free agency at what other players are getting It is though. They literally have lots of other holes and decided to spend on the bullpen. I get that you will defend Bloom on every move he makes, but there's more pressing needs. Houck would have been fine there. Umm this makes our bullpen a lot deeper. Jesus, quit your crying. The off-season has just started and we aren’t even close to being done
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Dec 7, 2022 11:00:52 GMT -5
Tough crowd, tough crowd. I wouldn’t have done it, but I like it just the same.
Like I mentioned in a post in another thread, go get your guys and let the chips fall where they may.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 7, 2022 11:00:54 GMT -5
Hell, maybe even Houck gets freed up to start. Hmm, I think you might be right.
I think they looked at that Taijuan Walker deal and exited the starting pitching market like
So Kenley gets the money that was slotted on Senga or Eovaldi who will be getting 7 years/160 million each
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Dec 7, 2022 11:01:10 GMT -5
I hate it.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,053
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Post by cdj on Dec 7, 2022 11:01:22 GMT -5
If he can just be an above average 9th inning guy he helps the entire bullpen. Having Martin, Houck, Barnes (fingers crossed), Schreiber, and Joely as the bridge to the 9th it should be a quality bullpen, just as long as Kenley holds up. I have high hopes for Kelly too
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 7, 2022 11:03:10 GMT -5
That’s old value though, everything is inflated now Not to say I like the signing- I thought I had responded to the Kenley idea last night being like “pass” but apparently I didn’t hit send. The bullpen should be solid at least To add to this, the $/win calculation for relievers is just different. The number is higher. I still don’t like it but you can’t just use the average market rate because that’s not how consistent relievers get paid. Even compared to other relievers in this same market this looks like poor value, though. I would take two Martins over one Jansen any day of the week.
More broadly though, this is one of the reasons I don't think it makes sense to spend big money on a reliever, period. People pay out of their minds for top relievers but they're notoriously inconsistent; see incandenza's post of the top relief FAs over the past few years and their first-year ERAs with their new team.
I would much rather spend that money on a position player or SP.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Dec 7, 2022 11:03:26 GMT -5
Hell, maybe even Houck gets freed up to start. Hmm, I think you might be right.
I think they looked at that Taijuan Walker deal and exited the starting pitching market like
So Kenley gets the money that was slotted on Senga or Eovaldi who will be getting 7 years/160 million each
I personally am not even sure I want Houck starting at this point, but if this bumps him into the swingman/bullpen chess piece role and relegates Wink to useful depth then that's a massive twofold upgrade to the bullpen in addition to just adding Kenley.
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Post by curtisw on Dec 7, 2022 11:05:19 GMT -5
I’m with people saying that this isn’t the best news. I want to like it, I’ve liked Jansen for years, but he’s been in decline and I don’t think that’s going to stop. I don’t know. I’m still trying to figure out to what to make of this. A bizarre signing currently.
I’m going to root hard for him though I’ve always liked him and maybe he can be good enough to really solidify things for us back there
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Post by manfred on Dec 7, 2022 11:05:40 GMT -5
Hell, maybe even Houck gets freed up to start. Hmm, I think you might be right.
I think they looked at that Taijuan Walker deal and exited the starting pitching market like
So Kenley gets the money that was slotted on Senga or Eovaldi who will be getting 7 years/160 million each
Yeah, the more I think about it, the more it seems like a way to quit the SP market and sign X and get one more decent bat. You can have Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Whitlock, Bello, and Houck start without hurting the pen. Spend $0 on starters, and bolster the lineup.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Dec 7, 2022 11:07:39 GMT -5
Would think this eliminates David Bednar from any Reynolds discussions.
A few if you have pointed this out, but I’m thinking that the team will rely on Sale, [Acquisition], Whitlock, Bello, Paxton, Pivetta, Houck, Hill (mid-season signing on the cheap) to fill out the rotation with mostly internal options. Senga would cost a lot of money, but I guess he’s the favorite at this point?
Houck is a pretty valuable trade chip if we were to include him in a deal.
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Post by bosox904 on Dec 7, 2022 11:08:28 GMT -5
I love this fan base.
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