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Red Sox Sign Kenley Jansen (2 years, 32 million)
hank
Rookie
Posts: 101
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Post by hank on Dec 7, 2022 16:46:16 GMT -5
I think Jansen is going to improve with the pitch clock. It will FORCE him to work faster. No chance being as slow as he is helps him. And even if doesn't help it will make him less painful to watch. Pretty sure the pitch clock was invented with Jansen in mind.
It's an overpay sure but you have to assume there's another 5-6 moves coming. This signing could look better or worse depending on what those moves are. So it's meh right now because the team is still meh. But if the main issue with the deal ends up being that we overpaid by a couple million I'll be the 1st to say so what? <shrug>
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Post by dirtdog on Dec 7, 2022 17:14:38 GMT -5
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 7, 2022 17:50:28 GMT -5
This signing is also interesting in that it runs contrary to the theory that your best RP should get the most important outs and those outs don't necessarily come in the 9th inning, so why pay big for a closer?
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Post by xdmo on Dec 7, 2022 18:05:28 GMT -5
This chart basically tells me that Jansen is a guy that needs to start a clean ninth. He's not the type you bring in the 8th inning to come and bring out the fire. He'll have a big chance to walk a guy or give up a barrel. Give him a clean inning and he'll do the job 85 percent of the time. I haven't seen much Jansen in my lifetime. The only memory I have of him is him giving up hits to JBJ in 2018.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Dec 7, 2022 18:12:36 GMT -5
What a like about this is they’re set up to have around $70m come off the books (depending on Verdugo and Pivetta salary) after 2024. Nice piece of business. Will be another big spending winter with no other in house contracts to take care of after Devers and Bogaerts
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Post by pasadenasox on Dec 7, 2022 18:29:13 GMT -5
This signing is also interesting in that it runs contrary to the theory that your best RP should get the most important outs and those outs don't necessarily come in the 9th inning, so why pay big for a closer? If forced to choose, I suppose I can support overpaying in dollars to acquire a Proven Closer as opposed to overpaying in prospects.
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Post by worldbfree on Dec 7, 2022 19:32:37 GMT -5
I will never understand this move. The guy has lost velocity and is terrible when trying to contain the running game. Throw in larger bases and a pitch clock and you are looking at an older pitcher who should be less effective.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 7, 2022 19:36:16 GMT -5
This signing is also interesting in that it runs contrary to the theory that your best RP should get the most important outs and those outs don't necessarily come in the 9th inning, so why pay big for a closer? If forced to choose, I suppose I can support overpaying in dollars to acquire a Proven Closer as opposed to overpaying in prospects. Yes, but no one is forced to make this choice. If they absolutely must wedge someone into the traditional closer role they can do it with Martin or Schreiber or Barnes.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2022 19:37:20 GMT -5
I will never understand this move. The guy has lost velocity and is terrible when trying to contain the running game. Throw in larger bases and a pitch clock and you are looking at an older pitcher who should be less effective. Based off his average velocity numbers on fangraphs he really hasn't lost much if any velocity so I disagree there.
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Post by cheers on Dec 7, 2022 21:23:59 GMT -5
I was going to spend a few minutes and try to be articulate/eloquent, but am letting my instincts get the best of me. Sorry guys.
BOOOOOOOOO.
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Post by benzinger on Dec 7, 2022 22:10:20 GMT -5
I would have liked this move at 1yr @ $10–12m. I had NO idea Jansen would/could get this much. He hasn’t been very good over the last few years. Maybe they can turn that around. Seems like a major overpay.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 7, 2022 22:23:16 GMT -5
I would have liked this move at 1yr @ $10–12m. I had NO idea Jansen would/could get this much. He hasn’t been very good over the last few years. Maybe they can turn that around. Seems like a major overpay. He's been the 10th best reliever in baseball by fWAR and 13th by WPA over the last three years, so I mean, as far as relievers go, the bolded is just inaccurate.
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Post by benzinger on Dec 7, 2022 22:56:56 GMT -5
I would have liked this move at 1yr @ $10–12m. I had NO idea Jansen would/could get this much. He hasn’t been very good over the last few years. Maybe they can turn that around. Seems like a major overpay. He's been the 10th best reliever in baseball by fWAR and 13th by WPA over the last three years, so I mean, as far as relievers go, the bolded is just inaccurate. fWAR not withstanding, he’s clearly not the same guy that he was in the 2016-2018 timeframe. The only problem is that they are paying him as if he IS still that guy.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,059
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Post by cdj on Dec 7, 2022 22:59:44 GMT -5
He's been the 10th best reliever in baseball by fWAR and 13th by WPA over the last three years, so I mean, as far as relievers go, the bolded is just inaccurate. fWAR not withstanding, he’s clearly not the same guy that he was in the 2016-2018 timeframe. The only problem is that they are paying him as if he IS still that guy. Nah that guy would’ve gotten 20+ on this market like Edwin Diaz
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Post by wildsox on Dec 7, 2022 23:05:25 GMT -5
He isn't the Kenley of old. But do you guys remember what we ran out there out of the bullpen last year? I can't complain about this when the alternative is guys similar to Robles,Familia etc.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 7, 2022 23:34:42 GMT -5
Jansen's FIP has been lower than his xFIP all but one year in his career.
And his xERA has been lower than his FIP all but two years that they've kept that stat (going back to 2015) and each of the last 5 years.
But his ERA has been *higher* than his xERA all but two years.
The latter two facts cancel out, such that his ERA has been right in line with his FIP.
Can anyone make a narrative out of that set of facts?
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Post by pasadenasox on Dec 7, 2022 23:49:37 GMT -5
If forced to choose, I suppose I can support overpaying in dollars to acquire a Proven Closer as opposed to overpaying in prospects. Yes, but no one is forced to make this choice. If they absolutely must wedge someone into the traditional closer role they can do it with Martin or Schreiber or Barnes. Yeah, faint praise for the deal for sure. Also agree that he should fetch a decent package if everything else doesn't work out.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Dec 8, 2022 0:09:04 GMT -5
Our bullpen is much better than last year and we are not wasting Whitlock in a closer role. 2023 is already better in my book.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 10, 2022 1:00:32 GMT -5
I wonder who he’s teammates with on the Netherlands WBC team Parlay into a Jurickson Profar deal??
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 10, 2022 1:19:34 GMT -5
This chart basically tells me that Jansen is a guy that needs to start a clean ninth. He's not the type you bring in the 8th inning to come and bring out the fire. He'll have a big chance to walk a guy or give up a barrel. Give him a clean inning and he'll do the job 85 percent of the time. I haven't seen much Jansen in my lifetime. The only memory I have of him is him giving up hits to JBJ in 2018. He's almost exclusively a 9th-inning 3-out guy. I would be shocked if AC asked him to do anything else, with the possible exception of playoffs.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 10, 2022 1:25:16 GMT -5
He's been the 10th best reliever in baseball by fWAR and 13th by WPA over the last three years, so I mean, as far as relievers go, the bolded is just inaccurate. fWAR not withstanding, he’s clearly not the same guy that he was in the 2016-2018 timeframe. The only problem is that they are paying him as if he IS still that guy. He got 1/$15m last year and saved 41 games for the NL East champs. 2/$32m is exactly the contract I would expect him to get, if not slightly more.
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Post by notnickyorke on Jan 30, 2023 16:22:29 GMT -5
Does this deal look worse now that the most of the offseason has played out?
-2nd highest AAV (16mil) given to a reliever this offseason (only beaten by Diaz and is 4.5 million higher then 3rd place)
-5th Highest total money given to a reliever this offseason.
-three 35 years old or older relivers got multi-year deals this offseason, Red Sox signed 2 of them
-16 million AAV is just under half the total money committed to the bullpen this year (Around 38.6 million)
-16 million puts him as the 5 highest paid player on the team
-4 other relievers were acquired this offseason for around the same total money (Martin, J. Rodriguez, Bleier, and Mills)
Do we think that he was the 2nd to 5th best FA reliever available this offseason? Do we think he will have a better season then all the other relievers signed for cheaper deals? If so, could that money have been spent better at another place. Josh Bell, Nathan Eovaldi, and Micheal Conforto all signed similar 2 year deals.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 30, 2023 16:27:14 GMT -5
Does this deal look worse now that the most of the offseason has played out? -2nd highest AAV (16mil) given to a reliever this offseason (only beaten by Diaz and is 4.5 million higher then 3rd place) -5th Highest total money given to a reliever this offseason. -three 35 years old or older relivers got multi-year deals this offseason, Red Sox signed 2 of them -16 million AAV is just under half the total money committed to the bullpen this year (Around 38.6 million) -16 million puts him as the 5 highest paid player on the team -4 other relievers were acquired this offseason for around the same total money (Martin, J. Rodriguez, Bleier, and Mills) Do we think that he was the 2nd to 5th best FA reliever available this offseason? Do we think he will have a better season then all the other relievers signed for cheaper deals? If so, could that money have been spent better at another place. Josh Bell, Nathan Eovaldi, and Micheal Conforto all signed similar 2 year deals. No?
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Post by manfred on Jan 30, 2023 16:30:09 GMT -5
Does this deal look worse now that the most of the offseason has played out? -2nd highest AAV (16mil) given to a reliever this offseason (only beaten by Diaz and is 4.5 million higher then 3rd place) -5th Highest total money given to a reliever this offseason. -three 35 years old or older relivers got multi-year deals this offseason, Red Sox signed 2 of them -16 million AAV is just under half the total money committed to the bullpen this year (Around 38.6 million) -16 million puts him as the 5 highest paid player on the team -4 other relievers were acquired this offseason for around the same total money (Martin, J. Rodriguez, Bleier, and Mills) Do we think that he was the 2nd to 5th best FA reliever available this offseason? Do we think he will have a better season then all the other relievers signed for cheaper deals? If so, could that money have been spent better at another place. Josh Bell, Nathan Eovaldi, and Micheal Conforto all signed similar 2 year deals. No? He is definitely one of the 5 best relievers. Yes. He fills a greater need than the guys you list. Those four other relievers all help in specific roles that come before the big fellow, and that combined makes a stronger bullpen. In a way, your point about their cheapness is the answer: they got a closer and a supporting cast without breaking the bank.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,059
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Post by cdj on Jan 30, 2023 16:36:38 GMT -5
Well when multi-year deals are 2 yr deals and we are talking about 1 inning relievers with proven track records, then idrc how old they are. Martin’s arm is as strong as ever and Kenley has arguably been baseballs most consistent reliever over the past decade
Martin and Jansen got those deals because they’re good pitchers. They would have likely got them (or something similar) elsewhere.
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