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Post by notstarboard on Feb 18, 2023 7:38:58 GMT -5
Best hitter batting 4th is 80's. You want more plate appearances for your best hitter. The trend is 2nd in the order but then you would have two lefties so 3rd is the next best choice. If I recall correctly 2nd is where your best hitter would ideally go, but 4th is still a more valuable slot than 3rd. If you're going to hit him 3rd, you may as well hit him 4th.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Feb 18, 2023 8:17:04 GMT -5
As a different approach...
Kiké Devers Turner Yoshida Duvall (Story when he comes back) Verdugo Arroyo Casas Catcher
If Yoshida is your ideal leadoff man but doesn't fit there with lefty/righty, then put him in the second most likely leadoff spot.
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Post by kwodes on Feb 18, 2023 11:08:41 GMT -5
Stacking lefties isn't really an issue if the splits are neutral but I like the idea of putting Casas between Turner and Story.
When Story is back...
Yoshida LF Devers 3B Turner DH Casas 1B Story 2B Verdugo RF Duvall CF McGuire C Kiké SS
Before Story...
Yoshida LF Turner DH Devers 3B Duvall CF Casas 1B Kiké SS Verdugo RF Arroyo 2B McGuire C
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 18, 2023 13:11:42 GMT -5
Best hitter batting 4th is 80's. You want more plate appearances for your best hitter. The trend is 2nd in the order but then you would have two lefties so 3rd is the next best choice. If I recall correctly 2nd is where your best hitter would ideally go, but 4th is still a more valuable slot than 3rd. If you're going to hit him 3rd, you may as well hit him 4th. The farther down you put him, the (slightly) fewer ABs he gets and the weaker the guy batting behind him is. The real problem with this lineup is it has too many question marks after the first four. That said, I think it will be:
Yoshida Hernandez Devers Turner Verdugo Duvall Casas Arroyo Catcher
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 18, 2023 13:27:08 GMT -5
Best hitter batting 4th is 80's. You want more plate appearances for your best hitter. The trend is 2nd in the order but then you would have two lefties so 3rd is the next best choice. If I recall correctly 2nd is where your best hitter would ideally go, but 4th is still a more valuable slot than 3rd. If you're going to hit him 3rd, you may as well hit him 4th. There have been studies which show almost no difference within the batting order, but the generally accepted sabermetric plan is (or at least was) having your top 3 hitters in the 1, 2 and 4 spots - with 3 and 5 coming next. Typically wanting high obp in 1-3 and more slugging in 4-5. Zips is projecting: - Kiké: .325 obp and .416 slg - Yoshida: .372 obp and .489 slg - Turner: .363 obp and .442 slg - Devers: .354 obp and .534 slg I don't love Kiké hitting lead-off, but only other options seem to be Arroyo, Verdugo and Yoshida. I could see Devers 3rd if Yoshida is leadoff, but nothing is quite ideal.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Feb 18, 2023 19:43:38 GMT -5
I realize that Arroyo is an injury risk, and overall he has much less of a track record than Kiké, but they look like 6 of one, a half dozen of the other offensively. I think, all else being equal, I'd rather hit Arroyo at the top of the lineup than Kiké, hoping for an offensive breakout and putting Kiké in a lower-pressure position to produce offensively as he needs to concentrate on SS defense.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 18, 2023 20:03:16 GMT -5
I realize that Arroyo is an injury risk, and overall he has much less of a track record than Kiké, but they look like 6 of one, a half dozen of the other offensively. I think, all else being equal, I'd rather hit Arroyo at the top of the lineup than Kiké, hoping for an offensive breakout and putting Kiké in a lower-pressure position to produce offensively as he needs to concentrate on SS defense. I disagree. Arroyo is too swing happy for the top half of the order. Hernandez isn't ideal for it but there's only so many RH options.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 19, 2023 11:20:40 GMT -5
2nd half 2021 Hernandez would be ideal hitting 1st or 2nd. I'm optimistic (hopeful) that's the KH we get this year.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 19, 2023 13:38:48 GMT -5
If I recall correctly 2nd is where your best hitter would ideally go, but 4th is still a more valuable slot than 3rd. If you're going to hit him 3rd, you may as well hit him 4th. There have been studies which show almost no difference within the batting order, but the generally accepted sabermetric plan is (or at least was) having your top 3 hitters in the 1, 2 and 4 spots - with 3 and 5 coming next. Typically wanting high obp in 1-3 and more slugging in 4-5. Zips is projecting: - Kiké: .325 obp and .416 slg - Yoshida: .372 obp and .489 slg - Turner: .363 obp and .442 slg - Devers: .354 obp and .534 slg I don't love Kiké hitting lead-off, but only other options seem to be Arroyo, Verdugo and Yoshida. I could see Devers 3rd if Yoshida is leadoff, but nothing is quite ideal. IIRC the third slot in the order frequently comes up with two outs and no one on, which is why in a perfectly optimal set up as you said the number 4 hitter is better. But in the end lineup order is really marginally meaningful so I donât think it matters too much. That being said my hope would be Yoshida doesnât have big platoon splits, then you wouldnât have to worry too much about the double lefties at the top with he and Devers, Turner / Casas / Kiké at 3/4/5.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 19, 2023 17:58:20 GMT -5
Cora is going to roll out a ton of different lineups this year, as he uses the flexibility to rest guys and gain platoon advantages. That means there's really no sense in trying to guess THE lineup. But here's a few sample lineups that I think are reasonable based on who is likely to be available at the start of the season. (No Mondesi,for instance.)
Against RHP: Yoshi LF KKH SS Raffy 3B Turner DH Casas 1B Arroyo 2B Dugo RF Duvall CF McGuire C
Duran could get an occasional start against RHP, though that would require two straight LHHs somewhere.
Against LHP with Casas getting a day off: Yoshi DH KKH SS Raffy 3B Turner 1B RobRef LF Dugo RF Arroyo 2B Duvall CF Wong C
Against LHP with Yoshi getting a day off: KKH SS RobRef LF Raffy 3B Turner DH Casas 1B Arroyo 2B Dugo RF Duvall CF Wong C
Against LHP with Dugo getting a day off: Yoshi LF KKH SS Raffy 3B Turner DH Casas 1B RobRef RF Arroyo 2B Duvall CF Wong C
Needless to say, injuries and performance issues will scramble things up. If Mondesi is healthy, I can easily see him taking over SS, allowing KKH to go back to CF and sending Duvall to the bench.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 19, 2023 21:46:39 GMT -5
I want to give this a spin for an ideal alignment, i.e. assuming all players are healthy. Agree with TearsIn04 that we're probably going to get a lot of variety, though.
Yoshida LF Turner DH Verdugo RF Devers 3B Story 2B Casas 1B Hernandez CF McGuire C Mondesi SS
If we treat 1, 2, and 4 as the most valuable spots and 8 as the least valuable, this is what you end up with. The three best hitters on the team, if we disqualify Casas to ease him into the fold, are probably Turner, Yoshida, and Devers. I like Yoshida, Turner, and Verdugo clustered at the top too because they should all be pretty high OBP guys; might as well given them extra at-bats and let them set the table for Devers. Mondesi is a great fit at 9 because he's a switch hitter and a budget leadoff man (speed, but low OBP).
I could also see sliding Verdugo down to 5, or swapping him with Casas if Casas really thrives. Just depends how saber-meta we're trying to go.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Feb 26, 2023 17:59:14 GMT -5
Not the way I would have predicated it, but if Devers likes batting second, Yoshida isn't your leadoff, and Cora doesn't want them in consecutive spots, what does that lineup look like? Until Story gets back I would guess: Hernandez Devers Turner Yoshida Duval Verdugo Arroyo Casas McGuire Man this iteration looks familiar...
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 26, 2023 21:51:25 GMT -5
Damn shame. Unless Yoshida is dead set against leading off the Sox won't be using the guy who is such an obvious table setter leading off like he should be.
If not leadoff then Yoshida should be batting 2nd but understandably Cora wants Turner following Devers in the order, so now he'll bat Devers 2nd and Turner 3rd.
So either he leads off with Verdugo or Hernandez.
So I'm guessing against righties:
Verdugo Devers Turner Yoshida Duval Casas Hernandez McGuire Arroyo
Against lefties:
Hernandez Arroyo Devers Turner Yoshida Duvall Verdugo Refsnyder Wong
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Post by incandenza on Feb 26, 2023 22:17:41 GMT -5
Didn't Verdugo also not like leading off?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 26, 2023 22:54:50 GMT -5
Didn't Verdugo also not like leading off? Can't remember the exact quote but as long as he's in the lineup he doesn't care.
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Post by rizdog on Feb 27, 2023 17:36:21 GMT -5
I'll try.... Vs. RHP 1. Verdugo 2. Devers 3. Turner 4. Yoshida 5. Hernandez 6. Casas 7. Duval 8. McGuire 9. Arroyo
Vs. LHP 1. Hernandez 2. Devers 3. Turner 4. Yoshida 5. Duval 6. Verdugo 7. Arroyo 8. Casas 9. Wong With Refsnyder rotating starting in place of Casas, Yoshida and Verdugo on many occasions. Lineup would look a lot better with Story!
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 28, 2023 2:04:46 GMT -5
Not bad at all
Edit: By which I mean efficient … and, if things go right, that’s a winning lineup.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 28, 2023 4:06:43 GMT -5
Didn't Verdugo also not like leading off? His brother recently tweeted that he told Alex he would be a good lead off hitter and that Alex “seemed to agree.”
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 21, 2023 6:31:47 GMT -5
SSS obvs but I love that he has been maximizing his rbi opportunities. A big issue for our departed middle of the order last season was that they didn’t drive in enough of the baserunners that were on base for them. Hopefully Yoshida can change that Most rbi in a wbc ever I believe That's true, but another problem is that they didnt have guys getting on base consistently enough from the leadoff spot. I still think Yoshida should lead off rather than bat cleanup. It's like they need Yoshids to drive in Yoshida, lol.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 21, 2023 8:07:59 GMT -5
SSS obvs but I love that he has been maximizing his rbi opportunities. A big issue for our departed middle of the order last season was that they didn’t drive in enough of the baserunners that were on base for them. Hopefully Yoshida can change that Most rbi in a wbc ever I believe That's true, but another problem is that they didnt have guys getting on base consistently enough from the leadoff spot. I still think Yoshida should lead off rather than bat cleanup. It's like they need Yoshids to drive in Yoshida, lol. He's not the prototypical leadoff guy and I'd hesitate to throw him in there right off the bat but part of me doesn't hate the idea of Casas batting lead-off, if they are deadset against it being Yoshida anyway.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 21, 2023 8:11:12 GMT -5
That's true, but another problem is that they didnt have guys getting on base consistently enough from the leadoff spot. I still think Yoshida should lead off rather than bat cleanup. It's like they need Yoshids to drive in Yoshida, lol. He's not the prototypical leadoff guy and I'd hesitate to throw him in there right off the bat but part of me doesn't hate the idea of Casas batting lead-off, if they are deadset against it being Yoshida anyway. Casas - Devers - Turner - Yoshi or similar is a rough way to take advantage of new base stealing rules but probably a good way to take advantage of anti shift rules.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 21, 2023 10:48:40 GMT -5
He's not the prototypical leadoff guy and I'd hesitate to throw him in there right off the bat but part of me doesn't hate the idea of Casas batting lead-off, if they are deadset against it being Yoshida anyway. Casas - Devers - Turner - Yoshi or similar is a rough way to take advantage of new base stealing rules but probably a good way to take advantage of anti shift rules. If that's your first four, put the speed guys at the bottom of the lineup so they're on base the next time the four come around.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 21, 2023 11:05:10 GMT -5
Casas - Devers - Turner - Yoshi or similar is a rough way to take advantage of new base stealing rules but probably a good way to take advantage of anti shift rules. If that's your first four, put the speed guys at the bottom of the lineup so they're on base the next time the four come around. Casas- Devers- Turner- Yoshi- Duvall- Verdugo- Arroyo- McGuire- Hernandez might make for an interesting batting order. Not like the Sox have a ton of speed anyway but splits up the LHH and RHH enough at the bottom of the order to hopefully make teams think twice about using a tough lefty type of reliever. If/when Story comes back slide out Arroyo and swap him and Duvall in the lineup.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 21, 2023 11:57:21 GMT -5
If that's your first four, put the speed guys at the bottom of the lineup so they're on base the next time the four come around. Casas- Devers- Turner- Yoshi- Duvall- Verdugo- Arroyo- McGuire- Hernandez might make for an interesting batting order. Not like the Sox have a ton of speed anyway but splits up the LHH and RHH enough at the bottom of the order to hopefully make teams think twice about using a tough lefty type of reliever. If/when Story comes back slide out Arroyo and swap him and Duvall in the lineup. I prefer Verdugo leadoff if Yoshida doesnt lead off, but I'd hope Cora could sway him to lead off, because I'd anticipate hed be the best leadoff guy on the team. I'm having a lesser vision of a Wade Boggs type of leadoff guy. I dont expect Yoshida to hit .360 with 100 walks but I can see .310 or better with an OBP in the .375 range. I'd want as many guys on in front of Devers as possible. I think it's not ideal to have him behind Devers as much as it would be to have him in front. Ideally they'd have Turner in the 2 spot and a RH masher cleanup, but they dont have that guy as I dont see Duvall as a guy who can fill that role effectively with a sub. 300 OBP. Story would have been their best candidate. At this point, if Devers is 2 and Yoshida is 4 with Turner in between, I'd go with Verdugo leadoff as he gets on base at a reasonable clip and hopefully he's closer to .300 this year which pushes his OBP upward and it would mean 1 less AB per game he hits a DP grounder to 2b. I guess Duvall would hit 5th and Casas 6th or vice versa. Although neither is ideal. Guess this is where they feel Story's injury as they kind of lack string RH bats in the lineup.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 21, 2023 14:43:45 GMT -5
Casas- Devers- Turner- Yoshi- Duvall- Verdugo- Arroyo- McGuire- Hernandez might make for an interesting batting order. Not like the Sox have a ton of speed anyway but splits up the LHH and RHH enough at the bottom of the order to hopefully make teams think twice about using a tough lefty type of reliever. If/when Story comes back slide out Arroyo and swap him and Duvall in the lineup. I prefer Verdugo leadoff if Yoshida doesnt lead off, but I'd hope Cora could sway him to lead off, because I'd anticipate hed be the best leadoff guy on the team. I'm having a lesser vision of a Wade Boggs type of leadoff guy. I dont expect Yoshida to hit .360 with 100 walks but I can see .310 or better with an OBP in the .375 range. I'd want as many guys on in front of Devers as possible. I think it's not ideal to have him behind Devers as much as it would be to have him in front. Ideally they'd have Turner in the 2 spot and a RH masher cleanup, but they dont have that guy as I dont see Duvall as a guy who can fill that role effectively with a sub. 300 OBP. Story would have been their best candidate.At this point, if Devers is 2 and Yoshida is 4 with Turner in between, I'd go with Verdugo leadoff as he gets on base at a reasonable clip and hopefully he's closer to .300 this year which pushes his OBP upward and it would mean 1 less AB per game he hits a DP grounder to 2b. I guess Duvall would hit 5th and Casas 6th or vice versa. Although neither is ideal. Guess this is where they feel Story's injury as they kind of lack string RH bats in the lineup. They seem pretty deadset on Rafi batting 2nd and splitting him and Yoshida up in the lineup. For some reason in the past they haven't seemed to like Verdugo batting leadoff but I agree he makes more sense at leadoff than Casas since I think Casas upside is going to be more of a base clearer than a table setter but with his patience and approach at the plate he could easily have a .350+ OBP this season. The more I try and figure out a lineup the more I agree that missing Story the first half if not whole season is tough as he'd be the perfect fit as a RHH with some pop. Probably me just itching for some regular season ball but if I look at this Sox roster I can see a fun team with the ability to prove the doubters wrong and be a strong team. Of course the first week could come and they could struggle out of the gate and I'll probably be back to thinking what the heck is going on with the Sox.
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