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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 14, 2023 10:30:32 GMT -5
I have to say I'm probably most interested in seeing the opening day lineup construction, I'd have to think Yoshida bats 1st or 2nd in the lineup. Maybe Yoshida/Turner/Devers/Duvall/Casas/Verdugo/Hernandez/Arroyo/McGuire?
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Post by seamus on Feb 14, 2023 10:37:21 GMT -5
Masa/Turner/Devers is the most "natural" top 3, but it puts the most potent bat in the worst spot in the top half of the lineup. Still, I think the most significant effect of lineup order is how it influences opposing bullpen usage, so I think that would be preferable to doing something like putting Hernandez in the leadoff spot followed by Masa/Turner/Devers.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 14, 2023 10:52:50 GMT -5
Masa/Turner/Devers is the most "natural" top 3, but it puts the most potent bat in the worst spot in the top half of the lineup. Still, I think the most significant effect of lineup order is how it influences opposing bullpen usage, so I think that would be preferable to doing something like putting Hernandez in the leadoff spot followed by Masa/Turner/Devers. Depends which Hernandez shows up this year but I suppose you could say that with much of the lineup. If Hernandez plays closer to his 2nd half 2021 season then Hernandez/Yoshida/Turner/Devers makes a lot of sense. If he's closer to the guy we saw last year then I don't want to see him anywhere near the top of the lineup and yes I know he was hurt but just saying. Can Verdugo be closer to his 2021 slash of .289/.351/.426? That wouldn't be a bad two hole hitter either. Yoshida/Verdugo/Turner/Rafi doesn't sound bad either going off Cora's comments that he wants to split Yoshida and Rafi. I like the pieces they've assembled for the line-up, but boy listing these possibilities is where not having Story for half the year if not more will hurt. Could really use a Righty with some more pop in the upper half of this lineup. Duvall maybe can be that until Story is back but I'm not particularly bullish on Duvall. He's a fine player but would like the lineup a heck of a lot more if he was batting 7th as opposed to 4/5 hole.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 14, 2023 10:54:13 GMT -5
Masa/Turner/Devers is the most "natural" top 3, but it puts the most potent bat in the worst spot in the top half of the lineup. Still, I think the most significant effect of lineup order is how it influences opposing bullpen usage, so I think that would be preferable to doing something like putting Hernandez in the leadoff spot followed by Masa/Turner/Devers. Depends which Hernandez shows up this year but I suppose you could say that with much of the lineup. If Hernandez plays closer to his 2nd half 2021 season then Hernandez/Yoshida/Turner/Devers makes a lot of sense. If he's closer to the guy we saw last year then I don't want to see him anywhere near the top of the lineup and yes I know he was hurt but just saying. Can Verdugo be closer to his 2021 slash of .289/.351/.426? That wouldn't be a bad two hole hitter either. Yoshida/Verdugo/Turner/Rafi doesn't sound bad either going off Cora's comments that he wants to split Yoshida and Rafi. If Verdugo can regain his 2021 form I'd honestly consider him for the leadoff spot, but I am still pretty unfamiliar with total lineup optimization
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 14, 2023 11:48:22 GMT -5
Since Cora has said he wants to split up Yoshita and Devers in the lineup (L,L).
My lineup would be...
Yoshida Kiké Raffy Turner Casas Duval Verdugo catcher Arroyo
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 14, 2023 12:17:16 GMT -5
If Cora thought highly enough to lead off with Kiké, then I'd guess he'd have no qualms batting him 2nd.
He'll probably pat Turner cleanup to "protect" Devers. Then I'd expect Verdugo, Duvall, Casas, Arroyo, McGuire for the remainder of the order.. at least to start the season until Casas hopefully forces his way higher up into the lineup.
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Post by geostorm on Feb 16, 2023 12:52:12 GMT -5
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 17, 2023 11:25:04 GMT -5
That our 2 best bats are left handed makes the lineup kind of tough. I think right now I would go with Kiké-Devers-Turner-Yoshi. I'm not crazy about Kiké leading off, especially against righties, but I think Devers should be in the 2 spot so idk who else leads off.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 17, 2023 11:31:48 GMT -5
That our 2 best bats are left handed makes the lineup kind of tough. I think right now I would go with Kiké-Devers-Turner-Yoshi. I'm not crazy about Kiké leading off, especially against righties, but I think Devers should be in the 2 spot so idk who else leads off. Why? Would you feel the same if they were both RHH?
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Post by jmei on Feb 17, 2023 11:39:53 GMT -5
Remember that minor differences in where guys hit in a lineup don't really move the needle (just a handful of runs a year, if I remember correctly). From that lens, I don't get too fussed about whether Devers hits second or third or fourth. As long as some permutation of Devers, Yoshida and Turner are in the top four (which feels like a near certainty), their exact order doesn't matter much to me.
They do lean a little LHH heavy in general, though. With Story out, of their top five hitters, four (Yoshida, Devers, Casas, Verdugo) are lefties, and the one RHH who cracks that list is 38 (Turner). (I suppose you can include Kiké in that group and call it four of six, but even in his breakout 2021 season, he was more of a good but not great hitter.) So will either have to risk being susceptible to LOOGY-types or forcing guys like Kiké, Arroyo and their catcher to hit higher in the order than they naturally would.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 17, 2023 11:40:43 GMT -5
That our 2 best bats are left handed makes the lineup kind of tough. I think right now I would go with Kiké-Devers-Turner-Yoshi. I'm not crazy about Kiké leading off, especially against righties, but I think Devers should be in the 2 spot so idk who else leads off. Why? Would you feel the same if they were both RHH? Guess I will rephrase, not a problem that our 2 best bats are left handed, but it is a problem that we don't really have a great RHH. JT is the only RHH I would confidently say is above average but he's not really a leadoff hitter, and even if he did leadoff, idk who hits in the 3 spot.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 17, 2023 11:43:01 GMT -5
Remember that minor differences in where guys hit in a lineup don't really move the needle (just a handful of runs a year, if I remember correctly). From that lens, I don't get too fussed about whether Devers hits second or third or fourth. As long as some permutation of Devers, Yoshida and Turner are in the top four (which feels like a near certainty), their exact order doesn't matter much to me. They do lean a little LHH heavy in general, though. With Story out, of their top five hitters, four (Yoshida, Devers, Casas, Verdugo) are lefties, and the one RHH who cracks that list is 38 (Turner). (I suppose you can include Kiké in that group and call it four of six, but even in his breakout 2021 season, he was more of a good but not great hitter.) So will either have to risk being susceptible to LOOGY-types or forcing guys like Kiké, Arroyo and their catcher to hit higher in the order than they naturally would. Adam Duvall channeling 2012 Cody Ross would be very big.
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Post by jmei on Feb 17, 2023 12:08:20 GMT -5
Remember that minor differences in where guys hit in a lineup don't really move the needle (just a handful of runs a year, if I remember correctly). From that lens, I don't get too fussed about whether Devers hits second or third or fourth. As long as some permutation of Devers, Yoshida and Turner are in the top four (which feels like a near certainty), their exact order doesn't matter much to me. They do lean a little LHH heavy in general, though. With Story out, of their top five hitters, four (Yoshida, Devers, Casas, Verdugo) are lefties, and the one RHH who cracks that list is 38 (Turner). (I suppose you can include Kiké in that group and call it four of six, but even in his breakout 2021 season, he was more of a good but not great hitter.) So will either have to risk being susceptible to LOOGY-types or forcing guys like Kiké, Arroyo and their catcher to hit higher in the order than they naturally would. Adam Duvall channeling 2012 Cody Ross would be very big. They really need either him or Hernandez to pop and be a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter, otherwise they're going to be running out a lot of LHH in the meat of their lineup.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Feb 17, 2023 13:04:28 GMT -5
I like on base guys Yoshi and Turner ahead of Devers, but then who bats 4th behind Raffy ? That is where the question marks begin. None of the other RH hitters project to be cleanup bats, but Kiki or Arroyo if swinging the bat well could slot at #2 moving Turner down to 4th. Then Verdugo, Duval and Casas a potentially formidable 5,6,7. Catcher then Kiki/ Arroyo in the bottom 2 spots.
I do not have a problem with Yoshi, Devers in the first 2 spots either, with Turner 3rd. If they are the best 2 hitters, then get them the most AB as possible. In that scenario, Vedugo or Cassas could bat cleanup if they are the next best hitter. I know Duval has the RH power, but really do no trust his OB ability enough to protect Devers. So, if I were manager drawing up my 1st lineup thought on the grease board, it would be:
Yoshida Devers Turner Verdugo Duval Casas Kiki Catcher Arroyo
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Post by tjb21 on Feb 17, 2023 14:39:00 GMT -5
Hernandez Yoshida Turner Devers Verdugo Duvall Casas Arroyo Catcher
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 17, 2023 14:45:40 GMT -5
Hernandez Yoshida Turner Devers Verdugo Duvall Casas Arroyo Catcher This sounds about right, at least to start the year. I don't necessarily love Hernandez leading off but they've done it in the past. If they get 2021 Hernandez then you roll with it. If they get a month or so in and he's looking like 2022 Hernandez then they'll have to rethink it.
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 17, 2023 18:28:10 GMT -5
i would go
Kiké Yoshida Turner Devers Duvall Verdugo Arroyo Casas McGuire
I think Casas in the 8 hole will take off a lot of pressure and also balance out the bottom of the lineup.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 17, 2023 21:40:10 GMT -5
Hernandez Yoshida Turner Devers Verdugo Duvall Casas Arroyo Catcher I don't hate the way you constructed this lineup, but I don't see Cora hitting Raffy cleanup. The trend is for teams to have their best hitter up higher in the lineup to get extra PAs. I think Raffy will hit third at the lowest. I think Cora would prefer him to be second, but that doesn't work if Yoshida is the leadoff guy because it gives you two LHH back to back. It's really hard to lay out what their regular lineup might be against RHP or LHP because I expect Cora to mix and match so much to give guys off-days. RobRef will play against all LHP, I assume, but sometimes it'll be in place of Yoshi and other times in place of Dugo. That's just one example.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 17, 2023 21:48:35 GMT -5
Towards the end of the year Arroyo was waking the ball like as if he might actually be achieving his prospect projections. If that continues, I'd bat him second.
No way is Raffy batting cleanup and no way Duvall is Raffy protection, he strikes out too much.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 17, 2023 22:03:23 GMT -5
In a perfect world Bogaerts would have been perfect in between Yoshida and Devers.
With X gone Turner would have made the mist sense in the 2 hole with Story batting 4th but then Story got injured. I don't think Duvall will get on nearly enough to bat 4th. He's probably better off separating Verdugo from Casas in the order in the 6th spot.
So now Turner needs to bat 4th so Devers doesnt get pitched around too much, not that it still won't happen quite often.
So if Hernandez can replicate the 2nd half he had in 2021 when he was actually a patient effective leadoff man with pop, then he'd work in the 2 spot.
I think Cora will try that option first but if Hernandez is more te guy he's been most of his career them perhaps Arroyo should get a look in that spot, especially if he's hitting well. I think he's capable of hitting .280 plus with some pop but hes not exactly an OBP machine.
Truthfully, Verdugo or Casas would be their best options in the 2 spot. Casas could really thrive there. He could be am OBP machine or pitchers could be forced to pitch to him and he has the tools to punish them.
But they're not going to bat three lefties in a row atop the order.
Against lefties I think the most likely guy to hit the bench is Casas, in which Turner would shift to 1b, Yoshida would DH and Duvall would shift to LF with Refsnyder on CF.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 17, 2023 22:16:00 GMT -5
I don't get wanting to put Duvall so high up in the lineup - he's likely the 8th best hitter of the projected starting 9. 103 and 87 wRC+ the last two years and he's 34.
Kiké Yoshida Turner Devers Verdugo Arroyo Casas Duvall McGuire
Could see Casas moving up early if he starts out hot.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 17, 2023 22:17:45 GMT -5
Towards the end of the year Arroyo was waking the ball like as if he might actually be achieving his prospect projections. If that continues, I'd bat him second. No way is Raffy batting cleanup and no way Duvall is Raffy protection, he strikes out too much. Why not?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2023 1:19:42 GMT -5
Towards the end of the year Arroyo was waking the ball like as if he might actually be achieving his prospect projections. If that continues, I'd bat him second. No way is Raffy batting cleanup and no way Duvall is Raffy protection, he strikes out too much. Why not? Best hitter batting 4th is 80's. You want more plate appearances for your best hitter. The trend is 2nd in the order but then you would have two lefties so 3rd is the next best choice.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2023 1:33:17 GMT -5
I've changed my mind on the order I'd go with. Now I've got:
Yoshida L Hernandez R Devers L Turner R Casas L Verdugo L Arroyo R Catcher R Duvall R
I have Turner 4th for Raffy protection and continuing the L/R for the top 5.
I moved Duvall to 9th because of his speed with the top of the order coming up.
IF Arroyo starts putting up solid at bats, I'd rethink it. Likely same general order but flip flopping Arroyo and Hernandez depending on how Verdugo is doing.
Against lefties Refsnyder replaces someone.
If Alfaro makes the team, I'd move him up in the order.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 18, 2023 1:57:04 GMT -5
Yoshida LF Arroyo 2B Devers 3B Turner DH Casas 1B Duvall CF Verdugo RF Hernandez SS McWong C
Swap Arroyo and Hernandez if you’d like
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