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Post by incandenza on Mar 21, 2023 15:00:16 GMT -5
I prefer Verdugo leadoff if Yoshida doesnt lead off, but I'd hope Cora could sway him to lead off, because I'd anticipate hed be the best leadoff guy on the team. I'm having a lesser vision of a Wade Boggs type of leadoff guy. I dont expect Yoshida to hit .360 with 100 walks but I can see .310 or better with an OBP in the .375 range. I'd want as many guys on in front of Devers as possible. I think it's not ideal to have him behind Devers as much as it would be to have him in front. Ideally they'd have Turner in the 2 spot and a RH masher cleanup, but they dont have that guy as I dont see Duvall as a guy who can fill that role effectively with a sub. 300 OBP. Story would have been their best candidate.At this point, if Devers is 2 and Yoshida is 4 with Turner in between, I'd go with Verdugo leadoff as he gets on base at a reasonable clip and hopefully he's closer to .300 this year which pushes his OBP upward and it would mean 1 less AB per game he hits a DP grounder to 2b. I guess Duvall would hit 5th and Casas 6th or vice versa. Although neither is ideal. Guess this is where they feel Story's injury as they kind of lack string RH bats in the lineup. They seem pretty deadset on Rafi batting 2nd and splitting him and Yoshida up in the lineup. For some reason in the past they haven't seemed to like Verdugo batting leadoff but I agree he makes more sense at leadoff than Casas since I think Casas upside is going to be more of a base clearer than a table setter but with his patience and approach at the plate he could easily have a .350+ OBP this season. The more I try and figure out a lineup the more I agree that missing Story the first half if not whole season is tough as he'd be the perfect fit as a RHH with some pop. Probably me just itching for some regular season ball but if I look at this Sox roster I can see a fun team with the ability to prove the doubters wrong and be a strong team. Of course the first week could come and they could struggle out of the gate and I'll probably be back to thinking what the heck is going on with the Sox. But isn't this exactly the replacement they got for Story when Story went down? Duvall may be a poor man's version... but not that much poorer. Story's ZiPS projection is .255/.325/.467; Duvall's is .240/.301/.492. That's a 118 vs. 117 wRC+. (Granted, the other projections are a fair bit more bearish on Duvall.)
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 21, 2023 15:14:58 GMT -5
They seem pretty deadset on Rafi batting 2nd and splitting him and Yoshida up in the lineup. For some reason in the past they haven't seemed to like Verdugo batting leadoff but I agree he makes more sense at leadoff than Casas since I think Casas upside is going to be more of a base clearer than a table setter but with his patience and approach at the plate he could easily have a .350+ OBP this season. The more I try and figure out a lineup the more I agree that missing Story the first half if not whole season is tough as he'd be the perfect fit as a RHH with some pop. Probably me just itching for some regular season ball but if I look at this Sox roster I can see a fun team with the ability to prove the doubters wrong and be a strong team. Of course the first week could come and they could struggle out of the gate and I'll probably be back to thinking what the heck is going on with the Sox. But isn't this exactly the replacement they got for Story when Story went down? Duvall may be a poor man's version... but not that much poorer. Story's ZiPS projection is .255/.325/.467; Duvall's is .240/.301/.492. That's a 118 vs. 117 wRC+. (Granted, the other projections are a fair bit more bearish on Duvall.) I'm not terribly bearish on Duvall but in terms of pure hitting I suppose you could say the difference isn't all that large. Doesn't really get in the way of how the lineup was constructed as Yoshida was going to play LF/DH and they needed someone who could play CF/RF but I'll take the 118wRC+ from the SS/2nd baseman vs the corner OF. Unfortunately this FA market didn't offer a lot in the way of RHH OFers, they weren't going to get Judge. The reports had them involved on Haniger who I'd have liked but for the added money/years over Duvall I wouldn't be surprised if Duvall is a much better value.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 21, 2023 16:48:00 GMT -5
They seem pretty deadset on Rafi batting 2nd and splitting him and Yoshida up in the lineup. For some reason in the past they haven't seemed to like Verdugo batting leadoff but I agree he makes more sense at leadoff than Casas since I think Casas upside is going to be more of a base clearer than a table setter but with his patience and approach at the plate he could easily have a .350+ OBP this season. The more I try and figure out a lineup the more I agree that missing Story the first half if not whole season is tough as he'd be the perfect fit as a RHH with some pop. Probably me just itching for some regular season ball but if I look at this Sox roster I can see a fun team with the ability to prove the doubters wrong and be a strong team. Of course the first week could come and they could struggle out of the gate and I'll probably be back to thinking what the heck is going on with the Sox. But isn't this exactly the replacement they got for Story when Story went down? Duvall may be a poor man's version... but not that much poorer. Story's ZiPS projection is .255/.325/.467; Duvall's is .240/.301/.492. That's a 118 vs. 117 wRC+. (Granted, the other projections are a fair bit more bearish on Duvall.) I think .325 OBP is a reasonable exoectation for Story. My own personal OBP "projection" for Duvall is .285. So on my mind it's a 40 point OBP dropoff. In a perfect world Story would be more of a 6 hole hitter and they'd have had a stronger cleanup option, like what JDM was for a lot of his tenure, but without that .850 OPE RH cleanup hitter and Story not at that level and it for the bulk of the season anyways their lineup construction is less than ideal. For a while I though the team lacked quality LH bats. Now I think it has swung around the other way as I think they're much stronger from the left side.
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 21, 2023 17:10:33 GMT -5
If that's your first four, put the speed guys at the bottom of the lineup so they're on base the next time the four come around. Casas- Devers- Turner- Yoshi- Duvall- Verdugo- Arroyo- McGuire- Hernandez might make for an interesting batting order. Not like the Sox have a ton of speed anyway but splits up the LHH and RHH enough at the bottom of the order to hopefully make teams think twice about using a tough lefty type of reliever. If/when Story comes back slide out Arroyo and swap him and Duvall in the lineup. A Kiké/Casas platoon at lead off (just in the batting order not the field) actually looks pretty good to me. Kiké has a career .348 OBP (121 wRC+) against lefties. Hopefully Casas rakes and you don't want to leave him at the bottom of the order against anyone, but to start off it sounds pretty good.
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Post by jmei on Mar 21, 2023 17:18:33 GMT -5
Part of the difficulty in forecasting the lineup is that, other than Devers and Yoshida, most of the rest of the lineup is in the "good but not great" hitter bucket. Fangraphs Depth Charts (which is 50/50 ZiPS and Steamer) projects each of the following to be between a 100 and a 120 wRC+: Turner (120), Casas (119), Verdugo (117), Story (110), Refsnyder (109), Arroyo (103), Duvall (103), Hernandez (101). That's every starter but the catcher, as well as their injured starting SS and their top backup OF.
While that makes the lineup order question a tough one, it means they should have a pretty deep lineup without a lot of holes. That hopefully bodes well for the season.
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Post by pappyman99 on Mar 22, 2023 11:39:04 GMT -5
Part of the difficulty in forecasting the lineup is that, other than Devers and Yoshida, most of the rest of the lineup is in the "good but not great" hitter bucket. Fangraphs Depth Charts (which is 50/50 ZiPS and Steamer) projects each of the following to be between a 100 and a 120 wRC+: Turner (120), Casas (119), Verdugo (117), Story (110), Refsnyder (109), Arroyo (103), Duvall (103), Hernandez (101). That's every starter but the catcher, as well as their injured starting SS and their top backup OF. While that makes the lineup order question a tough one, it means they should have a pretty deep lineup without a lot of holes. That hopefully bodes well for the season. I see a lot of potential holes. I’d argue on paper it’s one of the 3 weakest lineups we have had in the last 20 years, but it does have the potential to surprise well beyond that
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 22, 2023 11:58:45 GMT -5
Part of the difficulty in forecasting the lineup is that, other than Devers and Yoshida, most of the rest of the lineup is in the "good but not great" hitter bucket. Fangraphs Depth Charts (which is 50/50 ZiPS and Steamer) projects each of the following to be between a 100 and a 120 wRC+: Turner (120), Casas (119), Verdugo (117), Story (110), Refsnyder (109), Arroyo (103), Duvall (103), Hernandez (101). That's every starter but the catcher, as well as their injured starting SS and their top backup OF. While that makes the lineup order question a tough one, it means they should have a pretty deep lineup without a lot of holes. That hopefully bodes well for the season. I see a lot of potential holes. I’d argue on paper it’s one of the 3 weakest lineups we have had in the last 20 years, but it does have the potential to surprise well beyond that Thought this was a big statement so I checked, and it's actually not that far off, at least by one metric. The FGDC projections have the Red Sox offense at a .331 wOBA, which would be their 6th lowest in the last 21 seasons (including now 2023). It would be substantially better than the worst three offenses we've had by wOBA though: 2014 (.305), 2012 (.316) and 2017 (.316) and a big step up for 2022 (.319). On the other hand, the WAR projection from the hitters of 28.1 would be good for the 8th best in the last 21 years. For anyone curious, the pitcher WAR projection is 15.6, which would be 9th worst in the last 21 seasons, in the same ball park as the 2010 and 2013 squads. The total would be 10th best, in between the 2019 and 2009 squads, which won 84 and 95 games respectively.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 22, 2023 12:05:40 GMT -5
Casas 1B Devers 3B Turner DH Yoshida LF Duvall CF Verdugo RF Hernandez SS catcher Arroyo 2B
something like that to start the season
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Post by backwardsk on Mar 22, 2023 12:21:29 GMT -5
Casas 1B Devers 3B Turner DH Yoshida LF Duvall CF Verdugo RF Hernandez SS catcher Arroyo 2B something like that to start the season Would like to see Enrique-H hit 9th, since he's the worst offensive hitter against RHP. Duvall to 7th, since he doesn't get on base enough, Arroyo to 5th since his offensive profile is better on paper than both of those guys. All the rest seems to be on point against RHP. Completely different against LHP. Casas dropped down or out against LHP. Enrique-H maybe lead off.
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Post by seamus on Mar 22, 2023 12:31:31 GMT -5
I see a lot of potential holes. I’d argue on paper it’s one of the 3 weakest lineups we have had in the last 20 years, but it does have the potential to surprise well beyond that Thought this was a big statement so I checked, and it's actually not that far off, at least by one metric. The FGDC projections have the Red Sox offense at a .331 wOBA, which would be their 6th lowest in the last 21 seasons (including now 2023). It would be substantially better than the worst three offenses we've had by wOBA though: 2014 (.305), 2012 (.316) and 2017 (.316) and a big step up for 2022 (.319). On the other hand, the WAR projection from the hitters of 28.1 would be good for the 8th best in the last 21 years. For anyone curious, the pitcher WAR projection is 15.6, which would be 9th worst in the last 21 seasons, in the same ball park as the 2010 and 2013 squads. The total would be 10th best, in between the 2019 and 2009 squads, which won 84 and 95 games respectively. The offensive environment is down versus much of the last 20 years, so stats that are relative to the league are definitely more useful than "raw" figures. A .331 wOBA is way better now than it would have been in, say, 2010. This year's lineup is set up to look a lot like the strong offenses in 2013, 2016, or 2021 - a bunch of good bats with maybe one MVP-level batter (and the weakest hitters still providing defensive value). That's probably the median outcome. Even in the more outlier scenario where several guys underperform and none of the secondary options pan out, there are still enough folks in the lineup with upside that you could end up with a good offense just by getting top-tier production from 2-3 guys (like 2018).
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 22, 2023 12:48:44 GMT -5
Casas 1B Devers 3B Turner DH Yoshida LF Duvall CF Verdugo RF Hernandez SS catcher Arroyo 2B something like that to start the season Yes then after the trade deadline it’ll be Grandal and Story god willing
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 22, 2023 12:51:20 GMT -5
Thought this was a big statement so I checked, and it's actually not that far off, at least by one metric. The FGDC projections have the Red Sox offense at a .331 wOBA, which would be their 6th lowest in the last 21 seasons (including now 2023). It would be substantially better than the worst three offenses we've had by wOBA though: 2014 (.305), 2012 (.316) and 2017 (.316) and a big step up for 2022 (.319). On the other hand, the WAR projection from the hitters of 28.1 would be good for the 8th best in the last 21 years. For anyone curious, the pitcher WAR projection is 15.6, which would be 9th worst in the last 21 seasons, in the same ball park as the 2010 and 2013 squads. The total would be 10th best, in between the 2019 and 2009 squads, which won 84 and 95 games respectively. The offensive environment is down versus much of the last 20 years, so stats that are relative to the league are definitely more useful than "raw" figures. A .331 wOBA is way better now than it would have been in, say, 2010. This year's lineup is set up to look a lot like the strong offenses in 2013, 2016, or 2021 - a bunch of good bats with maybe one MVP-level batter (and the weakest hitters still providing defensive value). That's probably the median outcome. Even in the more outlier scenario where several guys underperform and none of the secondary options pan out, there are still enough folks in the lineup with upside that you could end up with a good offense just by getting top-tier production from 2-3 guys (like 2018). This is true and I meant to point it out, but I couldn't find a team level ZiPS wRC+ projection, thanks for adding. The 2021 team had a 106 wRC+ with a .333 wOBA. If we expect something in that range the offense would be something like the 10th best the team has had, strong though not quite the '13 level (114 wRC+).
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 22, 2023 12:53:49 GMT -5
I kind of like Hernandez batting leadoff vs. LHP and Casas batting leadoff vs. RHP.
But the odds of Cora doing that semi consistently are slim.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 22, 2023 13:37:47 GMT -5
Casas 1B Devers 3B Turner DH Yoshida LF Duvall CF Verdugo RF Hernandez SS catcher Arroyo 2B something like that to start the season Would like to see Enrique-H hit 9th, since he's the worst offensive hitter against RHP. Duvall to 7th, since he doesn't get on base enough, Arroyo to 5th since his offensive profile is better on paper than both of those guys. All the rest seems to be on point against RHP. Completely different against LHP. Casas dropped down or out against LHP. Enrique-H maybe lead off. I like having arroyo in that 9 hole specifically because I think he’s a good hitter and I like the idea of him setting the table for the top of the order. I have Duvall in the 5 hole for the pop but I agree with you that Arroyo is the best hitter of the 3 Agreed against LHP. Kikè works as a leadoff against them
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Post by backwardsk on Mar 22, 2023 14:42:54 GMT -5
Would like to see Enrique-H hit 9th, since he's the worst offensive hitter against RHP. Duvall to 7th, since he doesn't get on base enough, Arroyo to 5th since his offensive profile is better on paper than both of those guys. All the rest seems to be on point against RHP. Completely different against LHP. Casas dropped down or out against LHP. Enrique-H maybe lead off. I like having arroyo in that 9 hole specifically because I think he’s a good hitter and I like the idea of him setting the table for the top of the order. I have Duvall in the 5 hole for the pop but I agree with you that Arroyo is the best hitter of the 3 Agreed against LHP. Kikè works as a leadoff against them More power doesn't ideally mean better production out of the 5th spot of a lineup. I wouldn't want to fall into that trap. Also Duvall hitting a solo or two run home run (his main carrying offensive tool) near the bottom of the lineup (6th or 7th), while the pitcher is trying to breath, only puts more pressure on him. Your best 5 hitters should be hitting in the first 5 spots in a lineup. With your 3 best hitters out that bunch hitting first, second, and clean up. Your worst hitter is historically hitting 8th, but preferably ninth to avoid them getting the most at bats possible.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 22, 2023 14:54:52 GMT -5
I like having arroyo in that 9 hole specifically because I think he’s a good hitter and I like the idea of him setting the table for the top of the order. I have Duvall in the 5 hole for the pop but I agree with you that Arroyo is the best hitter of the 3 Agreed against LHP. Kikè works as a leadoff against them More power doesn't ideally mean better production out of the 5th spot of a lineup. I wouldn't want to fall into that trap. Also Duvall hitting a solo or two run home run (his main carrying offensive tool) near the bottom of the lineup (6th or 7th), while the pitcher is trying to breath, only puts more pressure on him. Your best 5 hitters should be hitting in the first 5 spots in a lineup. With your 3 best hitters out that bunch hitting first, second, and clean up. Your worst hitter is historically hitting 8th, but preferably ninth to avoid them getting the most at bats possible. I like Duvall in a run-producing spot in the order, he’s only a season removed from leading the NL in rbi. I think he has a chance to put up a really strong season at Fenway
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Post by seamus on Mar 22, 2023 17:34:01 GMT -5
More power doesn't ideally mean better production out of the 5th spot of a lineup. I wouldn't want to fall into that trap. Also Duvall hitting a solo or two run home run (his main carrying offensive tool) near the bottom of the lineup (6th or 7th), while the pitcher is trying to breath, only puts more pressure on him. Your best 5 hitters should be hitting in the first 5 spots in a lineup. With your 3 best hitters out that bunch hitting first, second, and clean up. Your worst hitter is historically hitting 8th, but preferably ninth to avoid them getting the most at bats possible. I like Duvall in a run-producing spot in the order, he’s only a season removed from leading the NL in rbi. I think he has a chance to put up a really strong season at Fenway Duvall is an interesting one because I do think backwardsk is right in the sense that having his power in the bottom third of the order to keep opposing pitchers on their toes is a real benefit and a way to minimize the harm of his otherwise underwhelming offensive performance... but it is awfully tempting to dream on a bunch of three-run homers from the 5-hole if he puts together another season like 2021.
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Post by pappyman99 on Mar 23, 2023 10:00:29 GMT -5
Until Story comes back
1. Yoshida 2. Devers 3. Turner 4. Casas 5. Duvall 6. Verdugo 7. Hernández 8. McGuire 9. Arroyo
Devers/Yoshida are good enough hitters to be put back to back as lefties and Turner must be behind Devers.
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 23, 2023 10:27:35 GMT -5
Casas 1B Devers 3B Turner DH Yoshida LF Duvall CF Verdugo RF Hernandez SS catcher Arroyo 2B something like that to start the season Yes then after the trade deadline it’ll be Grandal and Story god willing Grandal makes no sense imo. He's a 34 year old catcher that was garbage last year in a layup of a division, and 34 might as well be 40 at the catcher position. And, to pick him up, someone would have to go. The 40-man is already tight and Wong and McGuire both look like keepers. McGuire is the likely 1A of the platoon too, and he's a LHH like Grandal. Grandal's projections look amazing this year, but unrealistically so. They are carried by a ludicrous defensive projection that is substantially better than what he's done each of the past two years. They also seem to think a roughly career average wRC+ is likely when he's 34 and coming off a season with a 68 wRC+ in 376 PA. Only 3% of his PA in 2022 resulted in an XBH, which translated into a .269 SLG. That is actual doodoo. For comparison, JBJ had a .311 SLG last year (8% XBH rate)... I think Grandal will bounce back a bit, but I'd be surprised if he's a plus hitter this year.
Cannot wait for Story to be back, though. Really hoping he heals quick.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 7:27:50 GMT -5
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Post by patford on May 5, 2023 8:53:05 GMT -5
A much better atmosphere than one guy grousing about his contract all season rather than keeping his mouth shut and going out and hitting 62 HRs.
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Post by seamus on May 5, 2023 10:18:31 GMT -5
They are definitely being deliberate about their approach. Baseball-Reference Pitch Data - BattingThey're at about the league average in terms of pitches per plate appearance, but they have one of the league's lowest rates for swinging at the first pitch, one of the lower swinging strike rates, one of the best contact rates, etc. They also are near the top of the league in number of favorable hitter's counts faced. Overall, they're about average in terms of walk rate, but they're being disciplined in order to put balls in play. It's a fun brand of baseball to watch.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2023 10:37:20 GMT -5
They are definitely being deliberate about their approach. Baseball-Reference Pitch Data - BattingThey're at about the league average in terms of pitches per plate appearance, but they have one of the league's lowest rates for swinging at the first pitch, one of the lower swinging strike rates, one of the best contact rates, etc. They also are near the top of the league in number of favorable hitter's counts faced. Overall, they're about average in terms of walk rate, but they're being disciplined in order to put balls in play. It's a fun brand of baseball to watch. Which is a drastic change in approach from the last couple years. Feels intentional.
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Post by soxfansince54 on May 5, 2023 15:15:14 GMT -5
The Sox definitely have the right chemistry going right now, I've been wondering which 2 players will be out, when Duval and Story return. Chris I'm new here, and if this has been discussed I'm sorry. Your thoughts?
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Post by kingstephanos on May 5, 2023 16:38:13 GMT -5
The Sox definitely have the right chemistry going right now, I've been wondering which 2 players will be out, when Duval and Story return. Chris I'm new here, and if this has been discussed I'm sorry. Your thoughts? Welcome to the board 👍🏾
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