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4/28-4/30 Red Sox vs. Guardians Series Thread
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Post by ramireja on Apr 27, 2023 16:55:18 GMT -5
4/28 Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta, 1-1, 4.58, 19.2 IP, 23K:9BB) vs. Guardians (RHP Shane Bieber, 1-1, 3.23, 30.2 IP, 22K:9BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN+/WEEI 4/29 Red Sox (RHP Garrett Whitlock, 1-2, 6.19, 16.0 IP, 11K:3BB) vs. Guardians (RHP Zach Plesac, 1-1, 6.50, 18.0 IP, 13K:4BB) 4:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 4/30 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale, 1-2, 8.22, 23.0 IP, 30K:10BB) vs. Guardians (LHP Logan Allen, 1-0, 1.50, 6.0 IP, 8K:1BB) 1:35 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 27, 2023 17:05:43 GMT -5
Big series for the Sox. Really need to see bounce backs from Whitlock and Sale if they’re gonna stay in this thing.
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Post by blizzards39 on Apr 27, 2023 20:15:50 GMT -5
Interesting fact. Gaurdians have plays 3 games Vs a winning team and are themselves under .500. Red Sox have played 3 games Vs a losing team and are at .500
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Post by incandenza on Apr 28, 2023 8:05:33 GMT -5
Yoshida before and after his little injury break:
Through 4/11: 45 PAs, .216/.356/.324, 97 wRC+, 15.6% BB rate, 6.7% K rate From 4/16 on: 44 PAs, .333/.386/.590, 164 wRC+, 6.8% BB rate, 15.9% K rate
I'm curious what the connection is between his hitting much better and the almost perfect inversion of his BB and K rates.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 28, 2023 8:20:17 GMT -5
Yoshida before and after his little injury break:
Through 4/11: 45 PAs, .216/.356/.324, 97 wRC+, 15.6% BB rate, 6.7% K rate From 4/16 on: 44 PAs, .333/.386/.590, 164 wRC+, 6.8% BB rate, 15.9% K rate
I'm curious what the connection is between his hitting much better and the almost perfect inversion of his BB and K rates.
Could be small sample, but could possibly also mean he’s being more aggressive about seeking out pitches to drive
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Post by seamus on Apr 28, 2023 9:26:44 GMT -5
Yoshida before and after his little injury break: Through 4/11: 45 PAs, .216/.356/.324, 97 wRC+, 15.6% BB rate, 6.7% K rate From 4/16 on: 44 PAs, .333/.386/.590, 164 wRC+, 6.8% BB rate, 15.9% K rate I'm curious what the connection is between his hitting much better and the almost perfect inversion of his BB and K rates.
Could be small sample, but could possibly also mean he’s being more aggressive about seeking out pitches to drive Per FanGraphs game log/plate discipline data, he's been swinging more, making more contact, and lifting the ball more often. What's interesting is he's also starting 1-0 more often than when his walk rate was higher. Combined with the increase in both swing and contact rates, I think your guess is probably pretty reasonable.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2023 10:09:25 GMT -5
Updated adjusted Win% (SOS):
.754 (.446) Rays .672 (.534) Jays .652 (.652) Sox .648 (.571) NYY
.602 (.422) O's
b-Ref's SRS:
3.4 TBR 1.9 Hou 1.9 ChC 1.8 Tex 1.5 Pit
1.2 Bos 1.1 Mil 1.1 Atl
0.8 NYY 0.7 Tor
0.7 Min
0.6 Bal 0.6 LAD
Where Sox would rank in divisions (by SRS)
First: AL Central, NL East, NL West Second: AL East, NL Central Third: AL West
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Apr 28, 2023 12:11:42 GMT -5
A series win by the Sox will mean ending April with a winning record. The offense in general has been been a top 10 and have scored 3rd most runs. Starting pitching has been the achilles' heal. Pivetta is making his 5th start tonight and regardless of the outcome, I'm predicting he will make his 3oth start some time in September. Would be great to see him shine tonight along with Whitlock and Sale this weekend.
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 28, 2023 12:22:10 GMT -5
Sox are probably the underdogs in all 3 of these games? The pitching matchups don’t seem to favor them at all.
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Post by manfred on Apr 28, 2023 12:31:39 GMT -5
Sox are probably the underdogs in all 3 of these games? The pitching matchups don’t seem to favor them at all. Feels pretty even in latter two games.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 28, 2023 12:42:01 GMT -5
Sox are probably the underdogs in all 3 of these games? The pitching matchups don’t seem to favor them at all. Well the Red Sox offense and defense are much better so I would consider that.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 28, 2023 12:44:10 GMT -5
Sox are probably the underdogs in all 3 of these games? The pitching matchups don’t seem to favor them at all. I feel like you may be wearing dung-colored glasses. Fangraphs has them as solid favorites in the latter two games, and only slight underdogs in the first one.
I don't actually see why Plesac>Whitlock or Allen>Sale. In addition to which, the Guardians have a team wRC+ of 85. For context, Franchy last year was at 92.
In the Guardians' favor, however, is that they have a player named Xzavion, which sounds like the name of an interstellar battleship commander, so there's some intangible value there.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 28, 2023 12:52:50 GMT -5
Updated adjusted Win% (SOS):
.754 (.446) Rays .672 (.534) Jays .652 (.652) Sox .648 (.571) NYY
.602 (.422) O's
b-Ref's SRS:
3.4 TBR 1.9 Hou 1.9 ChC 1.8 Tex 1.5 Pit
1.2 Bos 1.1 Mil 1.1 Atl
0.8 NYY 0.7 Tor
0.7 Min
0.6 Bal 0.6 LAD
Where Sox would rank in divisions (by SRS)
First: AL Central, NL East, NL West Second: AL East, NL Central Third: AL West
All five AL East teams are in the top 12? That is really ludicrous. We'll see if that holds up, but this has to be the toughest division in the 6-division era, right?
The bottom three teams in the division by this metric are on pace for 93, 104, and 110 wins respectively.
ADD: The Rays' April schedule has really been comically easy. There are four legitimately bad teams in the AL, which each AL East team will face a total of 27ish times, and by the end of this weekend the Rays will have already played 13 of those games. They've also played probably the two worst NL teams, the Nats and Reds. So that's 19 of their first 29 games against really bad teams. Counting Colorado (along with WAS, CIN, DET, KC, CHW, and OAK) they'll only have 17 more games against those opponents the rest of the year!
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have played those opponents 3 times with 31 to go. In fact, through *May 28th* they'll have only played those teams 3 times. We really should be content if we're at .500 a third of the way through the season.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 28, 2023 12:56:14 GMT -5
Updated adjusted Win% (SOS):
.754 (.446) Rays .672 (.534) Jays .652 (.652) Sox .648 (.571) NYY
.602 (.422) O's
b-Ref's SRS:
3.4 TBR 1.9 Hou 1.9 ChC 1.8 Tex 1.5 Pit
1.2 Bos 1.1 Mil 1.1 Atl
0.8 NYY 0.7 Tor
0.7 Min
0.6 Bal 0.6 LAD
Where Sox would rank in divisions (by SRS)
First: AL Central, NL East, NL West Second: AL East, NL Central Third: AL West
Still early obviously but this is a pretty good illustration on why it's both fun and frustrating being a fan of Red Sox or any team in the AL East. Gotta love good baseball and rivalries but jeez it's tough since even on years where they have an above average team they still could miss the playoffs pretty easily.
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Post by cba82 on Apr 28, 2023 13:47:04 GMT -5
I’m concerned about Valdez, especially in the field. Would love to see Hamilton get a chance.
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Post by seamus on Apr 28, 2023 13:50:56 GMT -5
I like Masa at 2/Devers at 4 for the lineup.
Definitely hope Valdez can build some confidence defensively, but I honestly don't know if that means we want some nice easy plays or if we need some bang-bang plays so he doesn't have time to "yip" himself.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Apr 28, 2023 15:06:54 GMT -5
Yoshida before and after his little injury break:
Through 4/11: 45 PAs, .216/.356/.324, 97 wRC+, 15.6% BB rate, 6.7% K rate From 4/16 on: 44 PAs, .333/.386/.590, 164 wRC+, 6.8% BB rate, 15.9% K rate
I'm curious what the connection is between his hitting much better and the almost perfect inversion of his BB and K rates.
Could be small sample, but could possibly also mean he’s being more aggressive about seeking out pitches to drive They said Fatse noticed Yoshi was getting his "hands caught behind his head" on his follow through which caused him to yank the bat down. They tweaked his swing and that night he hit.
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 28, 2023 15:20:32 GMT -5
Could be small sample, but could possibly also mean he’s being more aggressive about seeking out pitches to drive They said Fatse noticed Yoshi was getting his "hands caught behind his head" on his follow through which caused him to yank the bat down. They tweaked his swing and that night he hit. I’ve given Fatse hate but hopefully he’s getting into the swing of things
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 28, 2023 16:15:49 GMT -5
Sox are probably the underdogs in all 3 of these games? The pitching matchups don’t seem to favor them at all. I feel like you may be wearing dung-colored glasses. Fangraphs has them as solid favorites in the latter two games, and only slight underdogs in the first one.
I don't actually see why Plesac>Whitlock or Allen>Sale. In addition to which, the Guardians have a team wRC+ of 85. For context, Franchy last year was at 92.
In the Guardians' favor, however, is that they have a player named Xzavion, which sounds like the name of an interstellar battleship commander, so there's some intangible value there.
My bad. I thought these games were IN CLEVELAND. They would be favorites in all 3 if that were the case. Different story with the games in Boston.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 28, 2023 16:25:08 GMT -5
I feel like you may be wearing dung-colored glasses. Fangraphs has them as solid favorites in the latter two games, and only slight underdogs in the first one.
I don't actually see why Plesac>Whitlock or Allen>Sale. In addition to which, the Guardians have a team wRC+ of 85. For context, Franchy last year was at 92.
In the Guardians' favor, however, is that they have a player named Xzavion, which sounds like the name of an interstellar battleship commander, so there's some intangible value there.
My bad. I thought these games were IN CLEVELAND. They would be favorites in all 3 if that were the case. Different story with the games in Boston. I don't agree with this either. The Red Sox offense is MUCH better than the Guardians'. Their defense is too. Pitching matchups are not the only thing that matters in baseball.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 28, 2023 17:05:45 GMT -5
I’m concerned about Valdez, especially in the field. Would love to see Hamilton get a chance. I’ve said it multiple times, but Hamilton is just about as bad as Valdez in the field. Sogard should really be the one getting the call-up w/ Tapia getting the DFA boot to make room. His spot on the roster is redundant w/ Duran.
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Post by cba82 on Apr 28, 2023 18:18:21 GMT -5
Feel bad for Tapia — I like him, he’s done nothing wrong, there’s just not really a spot for him now.
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Post by semperfisox on Apr 28, 2023 18:24:01 GMT -5
1st inning continues to be a nightmare
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 28, 2023 18:25:06 GMT -5
Where to start? Ugh
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Post by wildsox on Apr 28, 2023 18:25:44 GMT -5
We love giving teams a headstart
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