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5/1-5/4 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 1, 2023 7:42:04 GMT -5
5/1 Red Sox (RHP Corey Kluber, 1-4, 6.75, 24.0 IP, 20K:8BB) vs. Blue Jays (RHP Jose Berrios, 2-3, 4.71, 28.2 IP, 30K:5BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 5/2 Red Sox (RHP Tanner Houck, 3-1, 4.50, 26.0 IP, 24K:10BB) vs. Blue Jays (LHP Yusei Kikuchi, 4-0, 3.00, 27.0 IP, 28K:6BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 5/3 Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta, 1-2, 5.11, 24.2 IP, 28K:11BB) vs. Blue Jays (TBD) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 5/4 Red Sox (RHP Brayan Bello, 0-1, 6.57, 12.1 IP, 14K:5BB) vs. Blue Jays (TBD) 6:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by julyanmorley on May 1, 2023 8:24:47 GMT -5
Adam Duvall + His replacement Jarren Duran would lead the majors in WAR if they were one player.
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Post by rjw on May 1, 2023 8:47:20 GMT -5
For those of us here in the South, Tuesday's game will be on TBS.
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Post by Canseco on May 1, 2023 9:08:56 GMT -5
Isn’t this series at Fenway?
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 1, 2023 9:14:37 GMT -5
Isn’t this series at Fenway? That's my bad - yes, it is. |
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Post by Guidas on May 1, 2023 9:27:47 GMT -5
I hate these guys. Win three, steal five and have them leave town wondering how they lost eight games in a four game series.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on May 1, 2023 10:02:57 GMT -5
Is Wong ROTY eligible?
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 1, 2023 10:08:19 GMT -5
Adam Duvall + His replacement Jarren Duran would lead the majors in WAR if they were one player. I also note that the Red Sox are tied for 3rd among all teams in B-Ref RF WAR. They're at 1.0 They're second behind Pittsburgh in OF WAR. The Red Sox are at 2.9, the Pirates at 3.0. They're in the top third at C, despite being low-budget at the position. They're toward the bottom at 1B, 2B, SS and of course SP. So, by that analysis you could make the argument that in terms of roster construction, they did a decent job at most positions. The weaknesses at 1B and 2B are due to events that were hard to predict - Story's injury and Casas' enormous struggles. OTOH, SS and SP are squarely on them. |
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 1, 2023 10:21:46 GMT -5
According to B-Ref, the answer is no. He exceeded his rookie eligibility limits in 2022. |
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art
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Post by art on May 1, 2023 10:25:33 GMT -5
Adam Duvall + His replacement Jarren Duran would lead the majors in WAR if they were one player. I also note that the Red Sox are tied for 3rd among all teams in B-Ref RF WAR. They're at 1.0 They're second behind Pittsburgh in OF WAR. The Red Sox are at 2.9, the Pirates at 3.0. They're in the top third at C, despite being low-budget at the position. They're toward the bottom at 1B, 2B, SS and of course SP. So, by that analysis you could make the argument that in terms of roster construction, they did a decent job at most positions. The weaknesses at 1B and 2B are due to events that were hard to predict - Story's injury and Casas' enormous struggles. OTOH, SS and SP are squarely on them. So where, then, are the wins coming from? Shouldn't an all-replacement team have a winning percentage much closer to Oakland's than to Boston's? |
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Post by scottysmalls on May 1, 2023 10:31:21 GMT -5
Yoshida's baserunning went from a big positive in the first couple weeks to one of the worst baserunning drags in baseball now. Watching him he's looked slower and I've seen a couple issues but it hasn't struck me as that bad? I'm also surprised it went from -1.4 to -2.1 overnight, no way that happened in the game yesterday.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 1, 2023 10:38:57 GMT -5
I also note that the Red Sox are tied for 3rd among all teams in B-Ref RF WAR. They're at 1.0 They're second behind Pittsburgh in OF WAR. The Red Sox are at 2.9, the Pirates at 3.0. They're in the top third at C, despite being low-budget at the position. They're toward the bottom at 1B, 2B, SS and of course SP. So, by that analysis you could make the argument that in terms of roster construction, they did a decent job at most positions. The weaknesses at 1B and 2B are due to events that were hard to predict - Story's injury and Casas' enormous struggles. OTOH, SS and SP are squarely on them. So where, then, are the wins coming from? Shouldn't an all-replacement team have a winning percentage much closer to Oakland's than to Boston's? The Red Sox are 15th among 30 teams in B-Ref team WAR with 6.0. That lines up with their record, which is a game over .500. Oakland is last at -3.5, which lines up with their place in the standings. |
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art
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Post by art on May 1, 2023 10:39:13 GMT -5
Thanks to the Sox climb above .500, the Rays' record against >.500 teams has jumped from 2-4 to 6-4.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 1, 2023 10:42:57 GMT -5
Yoshida's baserunning went from a big positive in the first couple weeks to one of the worst baserunning drags in baseball now. Watching him he's looked slower and I've seen a couple issues but it hasn't struck me as that bad? I'm also surprised it went from -1.4 to -2.1 overnight, no way that happened in the game yesterday. That's prob from Saturday when he was out at 2nd on his own single. |
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art
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Post by art on May 1, 2023 10:45:14 GMT -5
So where, then, are the wins coming from? Shouldn't an all-replacement team have a winning percentage much closer to Oakland's than to Boston's? The Red Sox are 15th among 30 teams in B-Ref team WAR with 6.0. That lines up with their record, which is a game over .500. Oakland is last at -3.5, which lines up with their place in the standings. So an all-replacement team would have a record of 9-20? I'm skeptical about that. My issue is with how WAR is calculated. |
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Post by julyanmorley on May 1, 2023 11:01:39 GMT -5
The Red Sox are 15th among 30 teams in B-Ref team WAR with 6.0. That lines up with their record, which is a game over .500. Oakland is last at -3.5, which lines up with their place in the standings. So an all-replacement team would have a record of 9-20? I'm skeptical about that. My issue is with how WAR is calculated. An all replacement level team wins about 30% of their games. Fangraphs wiggles the number a smidge to make it work out that there is 1,000 WAR total over a season. This winning % can be validated by looking at the quality of players that teams actually acquire for free throughout the season.
A team may win more games than their WAR suggests they should have if for instance, they win lots of close games but lose lots of blowouts, or vice versa.
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Post by foreverred9 on May 1, 2023 11:04:03 GMT -5
So an all-replacement team would have a record of 9-20? I'm skeptical about that. My issue is with how WAR is calculated. Exactly, replacement-level generally means you're winning 30% of your games. |
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art
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Post by art on May 1, 2023 11:17:17 GMT -5
So an all-replacement team would have a record of 9-20? I'm skeptical about that. My issue is with how WAR is calculated. Exactly, replacement-level generally means you're winning 30% of your games. I think a more relevant and comprehensible measurement would be against MLB median than against the nebulous replacement player. |
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Post by julyanmorley on May 1, 2023 11:20:21 GMT -5
Exactly, replacement-level generally means you're winning 30% of your games. I think a more relevant and comprehensible measurement would be against MLB median than against the nebulous replacement player. Then you're putting a negative sign next to players that are valued by teams in the real world but are a little below average. |
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art
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Post by art on May 1, 2023 11:25:24 GMT -5
NYY have 14 games vs Tampa, Toronto & Baltimore from 5/5 to 5/25.
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art
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Post by art on May 1, 2023 11:28:27 GMT -5
I think a more relevant and comprehensible measurement would be against MLB median than against the nebulous replacement player. Then you're putting a negative sign next to players that are valued by teams in the real world but are a little below average. That's pretty close to how people get measured throughout life. |
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 1, 2023 11:43:33 GMT -5
Yoshida's baserunning went from a big positive in the first couple weeks to one of the worst baserunning drags in baseball now. Watching him he's looked slower and I've seen a couple issues but it hasn't struck me as that bad? I'm also surprised it went from -1.4 to -2.1 overnight, no way that happened in the game yesterday. We're so early in the season that a TOOTBLAN and a GIDP can kill your BsR real quick 😂 |
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Post by dirtywaterinla on May 1, 2023 12:15:00 GMT -5
NYY have 14 games vs Tampa, Toronto & Baltimore from 5/5 to 5/25. Yankee fans are going to have such a happy month! |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 1, 2023 12:17:42 GMT -5
Then you're putting a negative sign next to players that are valued by teams in the real world but are a little below average. That's pretty close to how people get measured throughout life. The idea is that you're measuring a player against what the readily available replacement would do. The problem with this "median" player is the median what? Median regular*? Median guy who plays in MLB at all at any time during the year? It's going to be arbitrary anyway. To me "this much better or worse than a readily available replacement" makes a lot of sense as the zero point rather than trying to agree on some definition of "average". * = if you don't pronounce the R this is a drink at Dunkin actually. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 1, 2023 12:25:01 GMT -5
That's pretty close to how people get measured throughout life. Median regular*? * = if you don't pronounce the R this is a drink at Dunkin actually. What’s a median egular? |
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