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6/23-6/25 Red Sox @ White Sox Series Thread
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Post by dirtdog on Jun 25, 2023 15:55:15 GMT -5
Pro Tip: Losing multiple series to sub-.500 teams is not the way to get into the Wild Card hunt. Yep. They have struggled against some bad teams the last six weeks or so. The dregs of both leads.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 25, 2023 15:59:05 GMT -5
I keep hoping they are going to go on a run and nothing. I guess what you see is what you get. If they keep playing like this heading to the deadline. They need to be sellers.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 25, 2023 16:05:27 GMT -5
They really are not hitting at all. so much for winning series. They are mediocre in hitting approach and to many chase bad pitches.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 25, 2023 16:11:06 GMT -5
Well that was lifeless. Glad I missed most of this one. Now they face good contenders, until they face Oakland before the all-star break. This stretch will determine their fate. Is it optimistic to say something remains to determine the fate of a 40-39 team? Well as sellers, probably if they do poorly over that stretch.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 25, 2023 18:01:03 GMT -5
He has had plenty of choice - how many games did he start KikÃÂé at SS with a healthy Arroyo, Reyes, or Chang either at 2B or on the bench? I'd guess more than half of them.
Hard disagree about the bullpen management too. He's once again picking a favorite reliever and riding them into the ground. This year he's also frequently punting on games early, which drives me crazy. To say nothing of his questionable hook for starters, which usually is at least a few batters slow. And not just for performance reasons - Sale threw like 110 pitches in back to back starts before he predictably went on the IL...
Edit: Oh, and the interview he gave saying he just didn't view Reyes (0.2 fWAR, 90 wRC+, 0 OAA at SS in 105.1 innings) as an everyday player, while simultaneously riding everyday SS Kiké Hernandez (-0.8 fWAR, 70 wRC+, -10 OAA at SS in 436 innings) with a 1st percentile xwOBA and 1st percentile OAA. But they're buddies and Reyes is the weird new guy, so it's cool.
I agree about using Winckowski too much. But this pair of complaints - riding the top relievers too much and being too slow with the hooks for the starters - kind of typifies the dilemma the manager faces: the pitcher who gives up the run always does worse than the hypothetical imagined pitcher that wasn't used in the situation. But of course the slow hook for starters means either overusing the good relievers or bringing in the Brasiers and Orts more often, and I have a feeling he wouldn't escape criticism if he did that either.
As for Kiké at SS... As near as I could tell Chang had just about won the job there and then immediately got injured, and then Reyes had just about won the job and immediately got injured, and I'm not convinced Arroyo is that much better of an option.
I don't think he's beyond criticism for these things; I think he's been only fair. I just don't think this season has been the broad failing for him some of you are saying it has.
I'm not judging him based on outcomes, though, as most of these complaints aren't even retroactive. He punts on some games, and sacrifices player health unnecessarily to go for it in other games. I want to see a proper middle reliever come on with a couple-run lead in the sixth, say, instead of Winck for 2 IP every single time. Or that same middle reliever coming on in the 7th instead of pushing Sale to throw another 15-20 pitches. You can have a quick hook on those middle relievers, but you need to steal innings where you can from non-leverage guys. Otherwise your best arms are at high risk of injury / burnout. It has happened like clockwork to the guys he's done this to in the past, dating back to well before this year: Schreiber, Barnes, Workman, Eovaldi, etc. Even with a 24 y/o arm I would be shocked if Winck doesn't miss substantial time this year or next with how heavily he's being used. For SS, it should not have taken them any time at all to win the job over Kiké. He has proven to be unplayable there and should basically be off the SS depth chart, by which I mean he should only play there out of necessity. Given that he hasn't hit since 2021, it should be an easy decision to bench him for the first guy who can play even a mediocre defensive SS. And yet it's late June and Cora is still starting him there. Arroyo has not had a large sample there, but he has done just fine there when he's been asked to step in. I'd even rather see what we have defensively in Hamilton, because even if he sucks that is still useful information for a player with several years of control remaining (and FWIW, he looks playable there so far). The only thing we get from Kiké playing there is more starts for a guy on like a -1.5-2 WAR pace.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 25, 2023 18:01:36 GMT -5
I know he's not a super star but worth calling out that the Red Sox were missing Alex Verdugo the last four games and he's easily been their best player this year and a top 20-ish guy in baseball. Flip a result and the last four days feel a lot different. Still gotta be better against the White Sox.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 25, 2023 18:05:01 GMT -5
I said it before and I'll say it again.
I don't want to hear any crap about strength of schedule nor do I want to hear about how the schedule gets easier and we should assume they win a bunch of games when that happens.
And the snickering at the Yankees is annoying. They're virtually a one man team playing without the guy and they're freaking ahead of the Sox. The Yankees truly suck and yet the Sox can't catch them.
It's the same damn story over and over again. They look impressive to start a series against a weaker foe, and then they lose a winnable game with usually shoddy defense involved and then in the rubber game they don't even show up.
And here they sit still on the outside looking in behind teams they could finish ahead of if they unstuck their heads from up their ass. Its damn frustrating. This should be a playoff team, one that if it gets Sale and Story back and has Paxton pitching on it, could make some noise in the postseason, but I'm not even optimistic that they make the postseason or even stay above .500
If this team has a hot week they follow it up with a couple of weeks of losing baseball just to negate it, which is what .500 teams do.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 25, 2023 18:11:56 GMT -5
The Sox lost a series to this team.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 25, 2023 18:26:55 GMT -5
This Casas quote on NESN from a few days ago hasn't aged well
"BOSTON RED SOX Triston Casas Believes Red Sox Have Momentum Despite Loss"
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Post by incandenza on Jun 25, 2023 18:31:38 GMT -5
This Casas quote on NESN from a few days ago hasn't aged well "BOSTON RED SOX Triston Casas Believes Red Sox Have Momentum Despite Loss" They're 7-4 in their last 11 games - a 103 win pace!
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 25, 2023 19:08:30 GMT -5
I said it before and I'll say it again. I don't want to hear any crap about strength of schedule nor do I want to hear about how the schedule gets easier and we should assume they win a bunch of games when that happens. And the snickering at the Yankees is annoying. They're virtually a one man team playing without the guy and they're freaking ahead of the Sox. The Yankees truly suck and yet the Sox can't catch them. It's the same damn story over and over again. They look impressive to start a series against a weaker foe, and then they lose a winnable game with usually shoddy defense involved and then in the rubber game they don't even show up. And here they sit still on the outside looking in behind teams they could finish ahead of if they unstuck their heads from up their ass. Its damn frustrating. This should be a playoff team, one that if it gets Sale and Story back and has Paxton pitching on it, could make some noise in the postseason, but I'm not even optimistic that they make the postseason or even stay above .500 If this team has a hot week they follow it up with a couple of weeks of losing baseball just to negate it, which is what .500 teams do. If the Yankees were without Judge all year they would be behind the Sox. It definitely is a broken record of a year though. Lots of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 25, 2023 19:09:11 GMT -5
This Casas quote on NESN from a few days ago hasn't aged well "BOSTON RED SOX Triston Casas Believes Red Sox Have Momentum Despite Loss" They're 7-4 in their last 11 games - a 103 win pace! Which is another way of saying they have gone 1-4 since winning 6 in a row, lol. Meh, they're 40-39, and 82 win pace.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 25, 2023 19:11:42 GMT -5
I said it before and I'll say it again. I don't want to hear any crap about strength of schedule nor do I want to hear about how the schedule gets easier and we should assume they win a bunch of games when that happens. And the snickering at the Yankees is annoying. They're virtually a one man team playing without the guy and they're freaking ahead of the Sox. The Yankees truly suck and yet the Sox can't catch them. It's the same damn story over and over again. They look impressive to start a series against a weaker foe, and then they lose a winnable game with usually shoddy defense involved and then in the rubber game they don't even show up. And here they sit still on the outside looking in behind teams they could finish ahead of if they unstuck their heads from up their ass. Its damn frustrating. This should be a playoff team, one that if it gets Sale and Story back and has Paxton pitching on it, could make some noise in the postseason, but I'm not even optimistic that they make the postseason or even stay above .500 If this team has a hot week they follow it up with a couple of weeks of losing baseball just to negate it, which is what .500 teams do. If the Yankees were without Judge all year they would be behind the Sox It definitely is a broken record of a year though. Lots of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. You'd think the Yankees would have a 2-10 stretch and fall toward the bottom, but they haven't. They've figured out how to win some games because their pitching has held together, which is strange considering they have a lot of injuries and their bullpen has a lot of anonymous guys out there. Maybe the Yankees are really a 2 man team, Judge and Cole. Maybe the Yankees need to lose Cole, too, to totally tank? Either way, the Sox swept them, and they're still freaking ahead of the Red Sox. Very annoying.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 25, 2023 19:12:36 GMT -5
The Sox lost a series to this team. Well scoring more runs than them clearly doesn't help you win, as the tweet establishes we outscored them in Boston too
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 25, 2023 22:59:50 GMT -5
This game is on Cora (and this is not a second guess.)
Here's Winck's season, xwOBA / wOBA (PA). This is an easy breakdown to see if you just look at his game log in Statcast.
.247 / .232 (85) through May 1 .307 / .310 (53) May 2 to June 1 .339 / .365 (43) Since 6/2.
In this game, he's already given up a go-ahead 113.0 mph, 445 HR to a guy with a .275 OBP, as well as a fairly hard-hit ball by Benintendi (97.1, .460 xBA). Both hitters are battling shadows.
Casas then puts then in the lead.
You have 4 innings left, and you have the lead. Martin's got the 8th and Jansen the 9th if you can hold it. That leaves 2 innings to fill.
On what planet is having Winck come back and take one of those two inning a good idea, when you have Pivetta, Murphy et al available?
It made no sense at the time and, alas, even less in retrospect.
On a separate note, if Casas makes that play (102.9) you say "good play!" Yes, some guys male it, but it has to be scored a hit.
My guess is that Winckowski is Cora's annual sacrifice to the overuse gods. He's on pace for 92 IP, which is about 10 innings more than any reliever in the majors threw in either of the last two seasons. A post-mortem for game 2 ... What was Cora thinking, and when did he stop?
Martin and Jansen had pitched on 2 days rest, then 1 day, and were looking at 0. Clearly Cora wanted to stay away from Martin, and that's reasonable.
Pivetta pitched the day before - 1 batter, 6 pitches. Coming into this year he had pitched three times on no rest and been very good, but he had done it 12 days previously and walked 3 of the 5 Rockies hitters he faced. Also clearly staying away from him, and in both of these cases it seems they were thereby made available for game 3 of the series.
Keep in mind that going to the pen in the 5th was not in any plan. I think we know that Cora's solution was 2 innings each of Winck and Murphy ... since that's what he did.
In the last week Winck had pitched twice and put up a .230 / .312 (xwOBA / wOBA). There was reason to hope his June funk had ended.
Winck comes in and gives up a .675 xwOBA and .748 wOBA.
Murphy had not been used by Worcester after being returned after the Yankees double-header. He was being saved for MLB, it seems, and was about to pitch on 5 days rest. He could have easily gone three innings instead of two.
The White Sox had three RHB and a switch hitter due up. Murphy has a reverse split in MLB so far.
Cora nevertheless sticks with his plan.
It turns out that .675 / .748 was the good inning. Winck allows .732 / .809.
All three homers he allowed were barreled and were homers in all 30 parks. His hard-hit % in this outing was 70% -- 60% in the 5th and 80% in the 6th. And this with the hitters wrestling with shadows!
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So, what is the rationale for limiting Murphy to 2 innings? It fractionally increases his availability for the upcoming Marlins series? Maybe. That's the best I can come up with. I think there really isn't one.
Cora loves to plan ahead and I think that's a strength. He doesn't seem to have much of a knack for improvising, or changing his plan when that's obviously a good idea.
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