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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 18, 2023 0:52:13 GMT -5
And we can all live with that if it means a better overall roster. Urias is and never was going to be our key to success. We were clearly going to non-tender him. So instead of nothing we get 6 years of a young and possibly effective reliever while saving roughly $5 million in salary, which can be used on other more impactful players. You literallly can win every single trade made from a "Value" standpoint and still not sport a very good team I agree losing urias isn't gonna make or break the roster but if urias bounces back to a 2 WAR guy for just 5 million I have a hard time seeing how it's a win overall for the roster. Not claiming he's the key to success but as of right now urias seems to me to be a better option for 2nd base than any of the other available options. If Urias bounces back…. I do not see it. I am glad Breslow got something for him instead of paying $5 million then giving him a DFA and getting zero return! (…like Bloom seemed to do a lot)
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 18, 2023 3:03:53 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season
He’s probably gonna be fine
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 18, 2023 5:26:11 GMT -5
Assumption, Urias wasn't plan A.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 18, 2023 6:55:12 GMT -5
I get some Rick Vaughn vibes from Campbell. Nice.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 18, 2023 8:30:52 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season He’s probably gonna be fine I agree that there’s a solid chance he’s a serviceable 2B next year, but at the same time his EV was 3 ticks lower this year, and his Max EV, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, LD%, and Contact% all took big dips. And now 2 teams have willingly given him up despite him being a cheap option at 2B. They must not have liked what they saw.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 18, 2023 8:36:53 GMT -5
I'm not going to keep repeating the same things over and derail the thread. I'll leave it as 2nd base has been basically been a black hole other than last year when story was playing there. I figure urias is a cheap option to at least get league average production with upside for more but it is evident the organization doesn't think so.
On the plus side they extracted an intriguing bullpen arm with options which is better than non tendering urias for nothing so that was good on breslow to do. I'll close the book for now and see what other dominos fall.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 18, 2023 9:24:42 GMT -5
I kind of liken Urias to Mark Bellhorn. Mark Bellhorn circa 2004 is a big help to your team because he hit enough that his other assets he brings make him a useful player. But Mark Bellhorn 2005 was a disaster. He didnt hit at all and the walks and power werent enough to compensate.
Urias, to me, is kind of like that. I dont know which version hes going to be and while I know his OPS+ was just below average, he looked like a guy headed in the 2005 Bellhorn direction. Either way the Sox werent inclined to gamble which version would show up in 2024. From a scouting perspective they seemed pretty unimpressed.
I'm curious to see what they have in Campbell. I'm hoping he can give them 60 good innings in middle relief and even give them some 8th inning work if all goes well. Or he could simply be an up and down reliever living on the fringes, but they certainly could use a reliever with options and upside. Good to see them getting a guy with an ERA around 3 rather than a reliever with a 6 ERA who just needs "tinkering under the hood", lol. We've already had plenty of that.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 18, 2023 9:38:51 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season He’s probably gonna be fine He also only slugged .337 with us. There is not a prayer of his OBP staying that high going forward unless he starts doing more damage. Even in his seasons when he was doing damage his OBP was more like .340, which isn't bad, but it makes a case for regression. He was also a terrible defensive 2B last year; the eye test said he was miserable at first and settled into merely below average, and the (more temporally blunt) defensive metrics just say "terrible". Even his relatively rosy Steamer projection has him at a .327 OBP next year, and that's with the SLG rebounding to .383. Steamer is also puzzlingly projecting a defensive improvement next year to above his career averages, which is how his projection gets to 0.9 fWAR in 250 PA. Urias isn't a bad gamble, but he would be exactly that: a gamble, at $~5 million, penciled into a starting role on a team that should really be able to do better. And if we're gambling, I would rather gamble again on a guy like Mondesi, who would be cheaper, defends much better and can back up SS, has speed, and who has higher overall upside if healthy. Yes you would need another 2B to go with him, but the same would go for Urias or you'd also be asking for trouble. And meanwhile, Mondesi's strengths would translate much better to a bench role. Campbell looks like a solid middle reliever with multiple options and nearly all of his team control remaining, compared to 2 arb years and 1 option for Urias. It's not as simple as "2B for a reliever" when there's such a disparity in cost and control, and there are fewer questions around Campbell's ability to be productive in his role. So, pending what happens at 2B, I like this trade quite a bit.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Nov 18, 2023 9:41:50 GMT -5
I personally like the move. Capable depth arms with options are incredibly useful. Remember down the stretch last year when we were cycling through waiver claim after waiver claim to find arms to fill innings. Urias was a clear non-tender, so moving him for optionable depth whose stuff has shown it plays in the bigs is a great get. Bottom line, is he better than Ort or Barraclaugh --- I thing you have to argue he is. Plus all that control, what's not to like?
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 18, 2023 9:42:31 GMT -5
I'm not going to keep repeating the same things over and derail the thread. I'll leave it as 2nd base has been basically been a black hole other than last year when story was playing there. I figure urias is a cheap option to at least get league average production with upside for more but it is evident the organization doesn't think so. On the plus side they extracted an intriguing bullpen arm with options which is better than non tendering urias for nothing so that was good on breslow to do. I'll close the book for now and see what other dominos fall. Define "league average", though. Do you mean average starter, i.e. ~2 WAR pace? Because that could be Urias, but I think that's more his ceiling than his floor. Feel free to ignore me - I know you were in the middle of " leaving it" 😁
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 18, 2023 10:01:51 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season He’s probably gonna be fine He also only slugged .337 with us. There is not a prayer of his OBP staying that high going forward unless he starts doing more damage. Even in his seasons when he was doing damage his OBP was more like .340, which isn't bad, but it makes a case for regression. He was also a terrible defensive 2B last year; the eye test said he was miserable at first and settled into merely below average, and the (more temporally blunt) defensive metrics just say "terrible". Even his relatively rosy Steamer projection has him at a .327 OBP next year, and that's with the SLG rebounding to .383. Steamer is also puzzlingly projecting a defensive improvement next year to above his career averages, which is how his projection gets to 0.9 fWAR in 250 PA. Urias isn't a bad gamble, but he would be exactly that: a gamble, at $~5 million, penciled into a starting role on a team that should really be able to do better. And if we're gambling, I would rather gamble again on a guy like Mondesi, who would be cheaper, defends much better and can back up SS, has speed, and who has higher overall upside if healthy. Yes you would need another 2B to go with him, but the same would go for Urias or you'd also be asking for trouble. And meanwhile, Mondesi's strengths would translate much better to a bench role. Campbell looks like a solid middle reliever with multiple options and nearly all of his team control remaining, compared to 2 arb years and 1 option for Urias. It's not as simple as "2B for a reliever" when there's such a disparity in cost and control, and there are fewer questions around Campbell's ability to be productive in his role. So, pending what happens at 2B, I like this trade quite a bit. Can Mondesi even walk without pain? I think it’s silly to say you’d rather have him than Urias at this point. Yeah I mean sure the profile is a better bench fit, but he couldn’t even ramp up last year. He’s more likely to retire than be on a major league roster at this point. i’m not bashing the trade, I think it’s perfectly fine. I just also find it silly that people are writing Urias off based on one bad month of baseball surrounded by a bad hammy when his track record says he’s a 2 WAR guy There’s a real chance of this deal backfiring and it’s fine to acknowledge that, that’s all I guess it all depends on how they fill that hole at 2B
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 18, 2023 10:06:32 GMT -5
I'm not going to keep repeating the same things over and derail the thread. I'll leave it as 2nd base has been basically been a black hole other than last year when story was playing there. I figure urias is a cheap option to at least get league average production with upside for more but it is evident the organization doesn't think so. On the plus side they extracted an intriguing bullpen arm with options which is better than non tendering urias for nothing so that was good on breslow to do. I'll close the book for now and see what other dominos fall. Define "league average", though. Do you mean average starter, i.e. ~2 WAR pace? Because that could be Urias, but I think that's more his ceiling than his floor. Feel free to ignore me - I know you were in the middle of " leaving it" 😁 Ha no worries I dunno to me I would welcome 2 WAR from 2nd base after the crummy production recently. 2021 and 2022 he was 2 fWAR. It's next to impossible to field a team full of all stars so 2 WAR is still a valuable guy. Clearly the org doesn't think he's a 2 WAR guy or they'd have kept him so ill have to trust that they have a better plan in mind than him. Campbell is an interesting arm and after seeing the Kaleb orts of the world making enough appearances I get the thought of snagging Campbell. He's got value so I'm happy they extracted something back since urias was not in their plans.
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Post by terriblehondo on Nov 18, 2023 10:16:08 GMT -5
Urias wasn't even getting the bulk of playing time with the Sox last year. Reyes and Valdez seemed to be more in favor. The Sox obviously weren't impressed and moved on. If they were going to DFA him anyway get what you can and move on.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 18, 2023 11:27:36 GMT -5
I loved watching Urías grind out at bats and thought he had solid potential to bounce back a year removed from his injury. But he didnt hit the ball very hard, the defense was disappointing, and you have to think Breslow had at least some familiarity with him given he was a key starter for a division rival while he was in Chicago, so I understand moving on. Getting an interesting bullpen piece with team control and options seems like a decent enough outcome, I guess.
We’ll see what they end up doing at second. Last year they got around -1 WAR from their position group, so it shouldn’t take much for a huge improvement there. Not sure I’m comfortable penciling in Valdez as the strong side of a platoon there, I don’t think the defense can really afford to get worse up the middle.
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Post by yuchangclan on Nov 18, 2023 13:21:05 GMT -5
I hear Adalberto Mondesi is available Oh man. Another brilliant move by Bloom where he lit $3M on fire for no reason at all. As for Urias, I am fine seeing him depart. It’s clear that Cora didn’t like him, either.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 18, 2023 13:26:39 GMT -5
I hear Adalberto Mondesi is available Oh man. Another brilliant move by Bloom where he lit $3M on fire for no reason at all. As for Urias, I am fine seeing him depart. It’s clear that Cora didn’t like him, either. If you’re complaining about the Mondesi deal you’re reaching. Very clear risk/reward decision there.
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 18, 2023 13:29:20 GMT -5
I hear Adalberto Mondesi is available Oh man. Another brilliant move by Bloom where he lit $3M on fire for no reason at all. As for Urias, I am fine seeing him depart. It’s clear that Cora didn’t like him, either. I mean the reason was that it was a low-risk, high-upside gamble at a position of need that they got in exchange for a guy they were probably going to nontender. He had basically the worst possible recovery from his injury and it didn’t work out, c’est la vie. You know, they did fire Bloom a couple months ago. He’s gone. He can’t hurt you anymore.
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Post by manfred on Nov 18, 2023 15:04:41 GMT -5
Oh man. Another brilliant move by Bloom where he lit $3M on fire for no reason at all. As for Urias, I am fine seeing him depart. It’s clear that Cora didn’t like him, either. I mean the reason was that it was a low-risk, high-upside gamble at a position of need that they got in exchange for a guy they were probably going to nontender. He had basically the worst possible recovery from his injury and it didn’t work out, c’est la vie. You know, they did fire Bloom a couple months ago. He’s gone. He can’t hurt you anymore. Indeed, everyone should observe the precedent set by the total silence on DD after he was fired.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 18, 2023 15:07:24 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season He’s probably gonna be fine He also only slugged .337 with us. There is not a prayer of his OBP staying that high going forward unless he starts doing more damage. Even in his seasons when he was doing damage his OBP was more like .340, which isn't bad, but it makes a case for regression. He was also a terrible defensive 2B last year; the eye test said he was miserable at first and settled into merely below average, and the (more temporally blunt) defensive metrics just say "terrible". Even his relatively rosy Steamer projection has him at a .327 OBP next year, and that's with the SLG rebounding to .383. Steamer is also puzzlingly projecting a defensive improvement next year to above his career averages, which is how his projection gets to 0.9 fWAR in 250 PA. Urias isn't a bad gamble, but he would be exactly that: a gamble, at $~5 million, penciled into a starting role on a team that should really be able to do better. And if we're gambling, I would rather gamble again on a guy like Mondesi, who would be cheaper, defends much better and can back up SS, has speed, and who has higher overall upside if healthy. Yes you would need another 2B to go with him, but the same would go for Urias or you'd also be asking for trouble. And meanwhile, Mondesi's strengths would translate much better to a bench role. Campbell looks like a solid middle reliever with multiple options and nearly all of his team control remaining, compared to 2 arb years and 1 option for Urias. It's not as simple as "2B for a reliever" when there's such a disparity in cost and control, and there are fewer questions around Campbell's ability to be productive in his role. So, pending what happens at 2B, I like this trade quite a bit. Yeah he hit those 2 grand slams in back to back PAs then said “my work here is done”
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Post by chaimtime on Nov 18, 2023 15:11:56 GMT -5
I mean the reason was that it was a low-risk, high-upside gamble at a position of need that they got in exchange for a guy they were probably going to nontender. He had basically the worst possible recovery from his injury and it didn’t work out, c’est la vie. You know, they did fire Bloom a couple months ago. He’s gone. He can’t hurt you anymore. Indeed, everyone should observe the precedent set by the total silence on DD after he was fired. I don’t know how often people randomly complained about Carson Smith for Wade Miley or Aaron Hill for Wendell Rijo not working out. Which is basically what complaining about the Adalberto Mondesi or Luis Urias trades would be.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2023 15:28:07 GMT -5
I mean the reason was that it was a low-risk, high-upside gamble at a position of need that they got in exchange for a guy they were probably going to nontender. He had basically the worst possible recovery from his injury and it didn’t work out, c’est la vie. You know, they did fire Bloom a couple months ago. He’s gone. He can’t hurt you anymore. Indeed, everyone should observe the precedent set by the total silence on DD after he was fired. Please cut out the off topic tangents. That’s two today. You’ve been warned about this before. Thanks.
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Post by manfred on Nov 18, 2023 16:05:26 GMT -5
Indeed, everyone should observe the precedent set by the total silence on DD after he was fired. Please cut out the off topic tangents. That’s two today. You’ve been warned about this before. Thanks. Me? Huh. Ok.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 18, 2023 17:32:41 GMT -5
I am pleased. Not fond of Urias. To me this is the start of turning the page. Breslow got his mandate to take the stench of Bloom off of this team. I'm Kidding.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 18, 2023 18:30:19 GMT -5
Urias to me is a nothing player. I wasn't a fan when they got him and think getting a potential bullpen arm is great.
I'm OK with rolling with Valdez and Hamilton unless they can get a real starter.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2023 20:01:28 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season He’s probably gonna be fine He did slash .225 / .371 / .337, for a wOBA of .321
I recall him getting a bunch of cheap, lucky hits ... . Yup, he had a .187 / .330 / .332 expected batting line, and that's a .305 xwOBA, and that's below the MLB average for 2B, which is .315.
Over his last three years (all that's predictive) he ranks 50th of 57 in Success Rate Added at 2b. It's not as bad as it sounds, because he was just -1%, but still ... he's a below average fielder at the position.
If he's not above average overall, he's useless to us. So everything boils down to whether he can come back to his offensive form of 2 and 3 years ago
The Red Sox probably have 100 times as much information to answer that question as we do ... and they have spoken. I think it's completely crazy to guess that he'll be fine when the team clearly believes he won't be.
I thought they'd non-tender him and sign him to a ml contract. This is much better.
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