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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 19, 2023 15:07:01 GMT -5
We learned the hard way in 2023 how much a lack of bullpen depth can hurt. Need some new faces to make 2024 better. I like this deal for that reason !!
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 19, 2023 19:04:39 GMT -5
To be fair, we also learned the hard way in 2023 how much lack of a 2nd baseman can hurt. I'm looking forward to us finding one.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 20, 2023 1:11:05 GMT -5
Well do you want me to respond to every point you made or do you want me to not die on this hill? I didn't respond to every point you made because I'm trying not to die on this hill because I don't think people need to see me make 30 posts about how I think Luis Urias is an average-ish major leaguer - not really the most exciting topic to hash out endlessly. But if you're really eager for my interpretation of his stats during his rehab in AAA, here goes: he got injured at the beginning of the season. Then he stunk in a 9-game rehab stint (18 wRC+). Then they called him up and he stunk in 64 PAs in June (70 wRC+). Then they sent him back down and he stunk for a couple weeks (70 wRC+ through July 15th). And then he got hot (140 wRC+ through the rest of the month). Then the Red Sox acquired him and he was basically fine in 100 PAs in the majors (98 wRC+).
This, to me, looks like a classic case of a guy getting injured, then being nagged by the injury for a while and taking some time to get over it, but eventually recovering. With a full off-season I'd expect him to be fine next year. People (including you) have brought up some good points about how his batted ball profile looked worse this year even with Boston, but I think that's probably a function of his trying to recover from injury as well. I've explicitly said that the Red Sox may have been cool on him because his medicals look bad; in other words, maybe they think his injury will be an issue going forward. So I'm granting that as a possibility; obviously none of us are in a position to say. Otherwise, though, I would expect a 26-year-old to be able to recover their previous form after an injury-marred season.
I don't mind you dying on the hill, that's your call, I just think it's amusing how desperately you want Urias to bounce back despite him no longer being a Red Sox. BTW, you're at 8 posts so far, you can make it to 30, I have faith in you. His basic batted-ball profile isn't at issue, nor is it something like slugging percentage, it's his exit velocity. Exit velocity doesn't typically oscillate that much, and when it does, it's usually for a player over 30 who is toast (JBJ is a recent example). We don't have his bat speed, but given that everything else has remained consistent, we can pretty well determine that his bat speed is the issue. Will he regain his bat speed? Can he survive as a player in MLB with one of the lowest exit velocities in the sport? No idea - but the abnormality would have scared me if I were in the Red Sox or Brewer's place. I've always like Urias and hope he bounces back, but I'm also glad the Red Sox got something for him and he'll get the chance elsewhere. Good luck to him.
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Post by bentossaurus on Nov 20, 2023 7:37:32 GMT -5
From Portugal. Bristol county rejoices. Whoop whoop! One of us! One of us!
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,003
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Post by cdj on Nov 20, 2023 7:56:41 GMT -5
Well do you want me to respond to every point you made or do you want me to not die on this hill? I didn't respond to every point you made because I'm trying not to die on this hill because I don't think people need to see me make 30 posts about how I think Luis Urias is an average-ish major leaguer - not really the most exciting topic to hash out endlessly. But if you're really eager for my interpretation of his stats during his rehab in AAA, here goes: he got injured at the beginning of the season. Then he stunk in a 9-game rehab stint (18 wRC+). Then they called him up and he stunk in 64 PAs in June (70 wRC+). Then they sent him back down and he stunk for a couple weeks (70 wRC+ through July 15th). And then he got hot (140 wRC+ through the rest of the month). Then the Red Sox acquired him and he was basically fine in 100 PAs in the majors (98 wRC+).
This, to me, looks like a classic case of a guy getting injured, then being nagged by the injury for a while and taking some time to get over it, but eventually recovering. With a full off-season I'd expect him to be fine next year. People (including you) have brought up some good points about how his batted ball profile looked worse this year even with Boston, but I think that's probably a function of his trying to recover from injury as well. I've explicitly said that the Red Sox may have been cool on him because his medicals look bad; in other words, maybe they think his injury will be an issue going forward. So I'm granting that as a possibility; obviously none of us are in a position to say. Otherwise, though, I would expect a 26-year-old to be able to recover their previous form after an injury-marred season.
I don't mind you dying on the hill, that's your call, I just think it's amusing how desperately you want Urias to bounce back despite him no longer being a Red Sox. BTW, you're at 8 posts so far, you can make it to 30, I have faith in you. His basic batted-ball profile isn't at issue, nor is it something like slugging percentage, it's his exit velocity. Exit velocity doesn't typically oscillate that much, and when it does, it's usually for a player over 30 who is toast (JBJ is a recent example). We don't have his bat speed, but given that everything else has remained consistent, we can pretty well determine that his bat speed is the issue. Will he regain his bat speed? Can he survive as a player in MLB with one of the lowest exit velocities in the sport? No idea - but the abnormality would have scared me if I were in the Red Sox or Brewer's place. I've always like Urias and hope he bounces back, but I'm also glad the Red Sox got something for him and he'll get the chance elsewhere. Good luck to him. So first paragraph you mock him by finding it amusing for “desperately wanting” Urias to have success-which btw I have no idea what you’re looking at to think that, he’s pretty clearly just saying Urias is an average hitter and there’s a good chance he gets back to it given his injury situation and the fact it’s unlikely he fell off a cliff at 26. Then in your last paragraph you yourself say you hope he bounces back lmao
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2023 10:27:12 GMT -5
Please knock off the petty back and forth. Thanks.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 20, 2023 13:36:01 GMT -5
So first paragraph you mock him by finding it amusing for “desperately wanting” Urias to have success-which btw I have no idea what you’re looking at to think that, he’s pretty clearly just saying Urias is an average hitter and there’s a good chance he gets back to it given his injury situation and the fact it’s unlikely he fell off a cliff at 26. Then in your last paragraph you yourself say you hope he bounces back lmao I was not attempting to mock anyone, only tease another long-time poster for repeatedly saying each post is his last on the subject. Hope he doesn't think so and would be happy to apologize if he does. Not sure what you're going for, but I think we've all killed this discussion a few times over.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2023 15:03:14 GMT -5
Not a fan of this trade, I wouldn't have made it.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 20, 2023 16:03:04 GMT -5
He also only slugged .337 with us. There is not a prayer of his OBP staying that high going forward unless he starts doing more damage. Even in his seasons when he was doing damage his OBP was more like .340, which isn't bad, but it makes a case for regression. He was also a terrible defensive 2B last year; the eye test said he was miserable at first and settled into merely below average, and the (more temporally blunt) defensive metrics just say "terrible". Even his relatively rosy Steamer projection has him at a .327 OBP next year, and that's with the SLG rebounding to .383. Steamer is also puzzlingly projecting a defensive improvement next year to above his career averages, which is how his projection gets to 0.9 fWAR in 250 PA. Urias isn't a bad gamble, but he would be exactly that: a gamble, at $~5 million, penciled into a starting role on a team that should really be able to do better. And if we're gambling, I would rather gamble again on a guy like Mondesi, who would be cheaper, defends much better and can back up SS, has speed, and who has higher overall upside if healthy. Yes you would need another 2B to go with him, but the same would go for Urias or you'd also be asking for trouble. And meanwhile, Mondesi's strengths would translate much better to a bench role. Campbell looks like a solid middle reliever with multiple options and nearly all of his team control remaining, compared to 2 arb years and 1 option for Urias. It's not as simple as "2B for a reliever" when there's such a disparity in cost and control, and there are fewer questions around Campbell's ability to be productive in his role. So, pending what happens at 2B, I like this trade quite a bit. Can Mondesi even walk without pain? I think it’s silly to say you’d rather have him than Urias at this point. Yeah I mean sure the profile is a better bench fit, but he couldn’t even ramp up last year. He’s more likely to retire than be on a major league roster at this point. i’m not bashing the trade, I think it’s perfectly fine. I just also find it silly that people are writing Urias off based on one bad month of baseball surrounded by a bad hammy when his track record says he’s a 2 WAR guy There’s a real chance of this deal backfiring and it’s fine to acknowledge that, that’s all I guess it all depends on how they fill that hole at 2B I honestly have no idea what's going on with Mondesi and I definitely won't die on his hill, but I do know ACL reconstruction has a good success rate (80-95% seems to be the refrain from a quick search), and you'd think given his age and some of the best medical care on the planet his odds should be much higher. His ACL tear was April 2022, though, and he wasn't able to return even 16+ months later, so it's been a much longer road than I would have expected unless his injury was really gnarly. It's hard to say if he just needed more time to ramp up than normal and resumed activities too quickly, or if it's another injury, or if the surgery didn't go as well as was originally thought, or what.
He's still only 28, though, so if he can't play worst case you lose what, $1-2 million and stash him on the 60-day? Provided there's another middle IF acquisition to go with him and he's able to resume baseball activities over the winter, he seems like a low risk and high reward target. $5 million isn't the end of the world to waste, especially if we blow past the LT as we should, but it's a little more impactful if Urias can't start; $5 million is a lot to pay a backup, especially given the amount of bench 2B types with fringy defense we already have.
I do acknowledge that the deal could backfire, and I also acknowledge that I'll feel worse about it if they leave the spot vacant a la Renfroe/JBJ trade. It'd be one thing if this was a reset year and they decided to invest that cash elsewhere in the roster, but they shouldn't just accept a guy like Enmanuel Valdez as the starting 2B in a should-be big spending year. At that point, even if there are no incredible options out there, you probably just keep Urias unless you are really sure he's cooked.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 22, 2023 21:14:06 GMT -5
Not a fan of this trade, I wouldn't have made it. The Red Sox obviously we’re not going to keep Urias and wanted something for him. They obviously think they can do better than Urias. I do too.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,003
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Post by cdj on Nov 22, 2023 23:31:09 GMT -5
Mariners plan to hand Urias the 3B job per rosenthal and others
Better defender there then 2B anyway
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 23, 2023 0:25:00 GMT -5
Mariners plan to hand Urias the 3B job per rosenthal and others Better defender there then 2B anyway More experienced at 3B but not necessarily better. He ranked 19th of 24 third basemen with 1000+ innings by FG's "Def" metric from 2021-22. Was middle of the pack in 400+ innings at 2B in the same two years. 38th of 39 shortstops with 700+ innings played. He looks a lot like a bat-first UT who can play the weak side of a platoon.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,003
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Post by cdj on Nov 23, 2023 1:08:57 GMT -5
Mariners plan to hand Urias the 3B job per rosenthal and others Better defender there then 2B anyway More experienced at 3B but not necessarily better. He ranked 19th of 24 third basemen with 1000+ innings by FG's "Def" metric from 2021-22. Was middle of the pack in 400+ innings at 2B in the same two years. 38th of 39 shortstops with 700+ innings played. He looks a lot like a bat-first UT who can play the weak side of a platoon. I’m just looking at the basic stuff like drs you get on his baseball ref page. On that it says he’s been a better 3B than 2B throughout his career- and obviously it’s a tiny sample but I thought his single best defensive play with the Sox came at 3B (that sick no look tag he had)
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Post by incandenza on Dec 13, 2023 13:13:02 GMT -5
Urias gets a 1.7 WAR ZiPS projection in 455 PAs (2.2/600 PAs). For comparison, Enmanuel Valdez got 1.4 in 457 PAs, and David Hamilton got 1.6 in 496 (?!). But only 0.5 for Reyes in 352.
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 18, 2023 2:51:15 GMT -5
Mariners plan to hand Urias the 3B job per rosenthal and others Better defender there then 2B anyway I loved him at 3rd. Wanted to see more Devers at DH and Urias at 3rd this year with Turner gone. Guess were all in on Pablo Reyes.
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Post by levi on Jan 2, 2024 23:17:37 GMT -5
Since the Red Sox currently only have 1 LHP in the projected bullpen, I was doing a deep dive into splits for other relievers in 2023 to identify potential targets and came across something interesting.
Isaiah Campbell was elite against LHH in a relatively small sample last year (48 TBF). He had the lowest xFIP (1.76) of any RHP against LHH in 2023, held them to a .163 BAA, and struck out 46% (17 K/9) while walking only 8% (3 BB/9). His stat line against LHH was most similar to Pete Fairbanks.
He also had the 3rd lowest xFIP of *any* pitcher against LHH last year, just behind Jose Alvarado and Angel Perdomo.
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