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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 18, 2023 20:08:37 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season He’s probably gonna be fine He did slash .225 / .371 / .337, for a wOBA of .321
I recall him getting a bunch of cheap, lucky hits ... . Yup, he had a .187 / .330 / .332 expected batting line, and that's a .305 xwOBA, and that's below the MLB average for 2B, which is .315.
Over his last three years (all that's predictive) he ranks 50th of 57 in Success Rate Added at 2b. It's not as bad as it sounds, because he was just -1%, but still ... he's a below average fielder at the position.
If he's not above average overall, he's useless to us. So everything boils down to whether he can come back to his offensive form of 2 and 3 years ago
The Red Sox probably have 100 times as much information to answer that question as we do ... and they have spoken. I think it's completely crazy to guess that he'll be fine when the team clearly believes he won't be.
I thought they'd non-tender him and sign him to a ml contract. This is much better.
The mariners clearly think he’s going to be fine and I’d argue they’ve easily been a better run team than the Sox lately… color us crazy!! |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 18, 2023 20:25:17 GMT -5
He did slash .225 / .371 / .337, for a wOBA of .321 I recall him getting a bunch of cheap, lucky hits ... . Yup, he had a .187 / .330 / .332 expected batting line, and that's a .305 xwOBA, and that's below the MLB average for 2B, which is .315. Over his last three years (all that's predictive) he ranks 50th of 57 in Success Rate Added at 2b. It's not as bad as it sounds, because he was just -1%, but still ... he's a below average fielder at the position. If he's not above average overall, he's useless to us. So everything boils down to whether he can come back to his offensive form of 2 and 3 years ago The Red Sox probably have 100 times as much information to answer that question as we do ... and they have spoken. I think it's completely crazy to guess that he'll be fine when the team clearly believes he won't be.
I thought they'd non-tender him and sign him to a ml contract. This is much better.
The mariners clearly think he’s going to be fine and I’d argue they’ve easily been a better run team than the Sox lately… color us crazy!! Well, you have to remember that when reading Eric's posts, the Red Sox are always the smartest and best run team. That's always his default position, lol. Hopefully Breslow will make that default position true. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 18, 2023 21:21:22 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season He’s probably gonna be fine He did slash .225 / .371 / .337, for a wOBA of .321
I recall him getting a bunch of cheap, lucky hits ... . Yup, he had a .187 / .330 / .332 expected batting line, and that's a .305 xwOBA, and that's below the MLB average for 2B, which is .315.
Over his last three years (all that's predictive) he ranks 50th of 57 in Success Rate Added at 2b. It's not as bad as it sounds, because he was just -1%, but still ... he's a below average fielder at the position.
If he's not above average overall, he's useless to us. So everything boils down to whether he can come back to his offensive form of 2 and 3 years ago
The Red Sox probably have 100 times as much information to answer that question as we do ... and they have spoken. I think it's completely crazy to guess that he'll be fine when the team clearly believes he won't be.
I thought they'd non-tender him and sign him to a ml contract. This is much better.
Another way of saying this: "So everything boils down to whether he can come back to his offensive form he showed in 1000 of his last 1200 PAs (before an injury cost him most of 2023)." Which hardly sounds like a wild gamble when you put it that way.
I've had the thought that they might not like his medicals. But he had a breakout season at 24, repeated that performance at 25, and is still just 26; if it's not a health thing there's just no reason not to expect him to return to being the 2+ WAR player he had already become. The fact that he had been a top 50 prospect also confirms that there's a solid foundation of talent there.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 18, 2023 21:33:07 GMT -5
He did slash .225 / .371 / .337, for a wOBA of .321
I recall him getting a bunch of cheap, lucky hits ... . Yup, he had a .187 / .330 / .332 expected batting line, and that's a .305 xwOBA, and that's below the MLB average for 2B, which is .315.
Over his last three years (all that's predictive) he ranks 50th of 57 in Success Rate Added at 2b. It's not as bad as it sounds, because he was just -1%, but still ... he's a below average fielder at the position.
If he's not above average overall, he's useless to us. So everything boils down to whether he can come back to his offensive form of 2 and 3 years ago
The Red Sox probably have 100 times as much information to answer that question as we do ... and they have spoken. I think it's completely crazy to guess that he'll be fine when the team clearly believes he won't be.
I thought they'd non-tender him and sign him to a ml contract. This is much better.
Another way of saying this: "So everything boils down to whether he can come back to his offensive form he showed in 1000 of his last 1200 PAs (before an injury cost him most of 2023)." Which hardly sounds like a wild gamble when you put it that way.
I've had the thought that they might not like his medicals. But he had a breakout season at 24, repeated that performance at 25, and is still just 26; if it's not a health thing there's just no reason not to expect him to return to being the 2+ WAR player he had already become. The fact that he had been a top 50 prospect also confirms that there's a solid foundation of talent there.
Well dang, it’s crazy that neither the Brewers or Red Sox knew that there was no reason not to expect him to return to being a 2+ WAR player. Seriously, I don’t lean on the idea that teams are infallible by any means, but I’m just not sure how you can look at multiple teams with considerably more information than you deciding he’s expendable and think that THEY are the ones missing something. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 18, 2023 21:46:03 GMT -5
Another way of saying this: "So everything boils down to whether he can come back to his offensive form he showed in 1000 of his last 1200 PAs (before an injury cost him most of 2023)." Which hardly sounds like a wild gamble when you put it that way.
I've had the thought that they might not like his medicals. But he had a breakout season at 24, repeated that performance at 25, and is still just 26; if it's not a health thing there's just no reason not to expect him to return to being the 2+ WAR player he had already become. The fact that he had been a top 50 prospect also confirms that there's a solid foundation of talent there.
Well dang, it’s crazy that neither the Brewers or Red Sox knew that there was no reason not to expect him to return to being a 2+ WAR player. Seriously, I don’t lean on the idea that teams are infallible by any means, but I’m just not sure how you can look at multiple teams with considerably more information than you deciding he’s expendable and think that THEY are the ones missing something. I've said in this thread that the Red Sox may well have a bigger plan in mind. I'm arguing against the idea that there's anything in the numbers that all of us can see to justify the idea that he's unlikely to return to form. But if the team trades for Polanco tomorrow or something then I'll be like "oh okay, that makes sense."
As for the Brewers dumping him: we know they'd make a move like that to save $5 million. Beyond that our only data point is that Seattle felt he'll be worth more than his arb salary since they were willing to give up a pitcher with 6 years of control to get him; and the Red Sox were willing to make that deal.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 18, 2023 21:50:53 GMT -5
Well dang, it’s crazy that neither the Brewers or Red Sox knew that there was no reason not to expect him to return to being a 2+ WAR player. Seriously, I don’t lean on the idea that teams are infallible by any means, but I’m just not sure how you can look at multiple teams with considerably more information than you deciding he’s expendable and think that THEY are the ones missing something. I've said in this thread that the Red Sox may well have a bigger plan in mind. I'm arguing against the idea that there's anything in the numbers that all of us can see to justify the idea that he's unlikely to return to form. But if the team trades for Polanco tomorrow or something then I'll be like "oh okay, that makes sense."
As for the Brewers dumping him: we know they'd make a move like that to save $5 million. Beyond that our only data point is that Seattle felt he'll be worth more than his arb salary since they were willing to give up a pitcher with 6 years of control to get him; and the Red Sox were willing to make that deal.
Setting aside the logical inconsistency of you arguing against that data given how often you rely on stuff like expected stats, I’d just say it’s never going to be as black and white as you paint it out to be. You make it seem like it’s essentially a guarantee he bounces back, maybe that’s just semantics, but there’s obviously quite a bit of room between his best seasons and the actual floor. |
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2023 22:02:07 GMT -5
While in general regressing to the mean is a worthy projection method, in cases where (whether due to injury or mechanical issues or something else) a player’s profile fundamentally changes, it can be misleading. Not sure which bucket Urias falls into, but I believe his quality of contact has been way down (even after his joining the Red Sox) and so they presumably think he’s got low odds of returning to the player he was a few years ago.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 18, 2023 22:04:55 GMT -5
While in general regressing to the mean is a worthy projection method, in cases where (whether due to injury or mechanical issues or something else) a player’s profile fundamentally changes, it can be misleading. Not sure which bucket Urias falls into, but I believe his quality of contact has been way down (even after his joining the Red Sox) and so they presumably think he’s got low odds of returning to the player he was a few years ago. IIRC (should probably just do some digging into this but some great college football on right now) his profile changed from his prospect days to his major league career as well, which is not a huge deal but is also something worth mentioning as a footnote when you talk about the uncertainty of what you’re getting from him. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 18, 2023 22:12:06 GMT -5
I've said in this thread that the Red Sox may well have a bigger plan in mind. I'm arguing against the idea that there's anything in the numbers that all of us can see to justify the idea that he's unlikely to return to form. But if the team trades for Polanco tomorrow or something then I'll be like "oh okay, that makes sense."
As for the Brewers dumping him: we know they'd make a move like that to save $5 million. Beyond that our only data point is that Seattle felt he'll be worth more than his arb salary since they were willing to give up a pitcher with 6 years of control to get him; and the Red Sox were willing to make that deal.
Setting aside the logical inconsistency of you arguing against that data given how often you rely on stuff like expected stats, I’d just say it’s never going to be as black and white as you paint it out to be. You make it seem like it’s essentially a guarantee he bounces back, maybe that’s just semantics, but there’s obviously quite a bit of room between his best seasons and the actual floor. Obviously a projection is never a guarantee. He could have a 4 WAR season next year or he could be replacement level. I'm talking about what the best reasonable expectation for him is. In any case, let me clarify my view, since it apparently hasn't come across:
- based on pedigree, performance, and publicly available information, I would project Urias to be about a 2 WAR player next season - that is better than the other options the team has on the roster, and it's better than every single free agent option at 2B - it's possible the team has information that would lead to a lower projection; I mentioned this myself in reference to his medicals - it's also possible the team has plans for upgrading 2B through trade - we can't judge this trade until we have the full picture
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 18, 2023 22:12:09 GMT -5
I've said in this thread that the Red Sox may well have a bigger plan in mind. I'm arguing against the idea that there's anything in the numbers that all of us can see to justify the idea that he's unlikely to return to form. But if the team trades for Polanco tomorrow or something then I'll be like "oh okay, that makes sense." As for the Brewers dumping him: we know they'd make a move like that to save $5 million. Beyond that our only data point is that Seattle felt he'll be worth more than his arb salary since they were willing to give up a pitcher with 6 years of control to get him; and the Red Sox were willing to make that deal.
There's always a chance that Urias bounces back but it was not randomness, or a small sample size, that lead to his poor season. His average exit velocity (84.9) was 2 miles per hour lower than the lowest mark of his career - this was after he had recovered from a hamstring injury (only played 1 game before the injury). His career averages in EV from 2018 to 2022 ranged from 86.9 to 87.9 - that's consistency even with two smaller samples. If he had qualified he would have been 256th of 259 in MLB in exit velocity. His hard hit percentage would have placed him 242 of 259 players if he qualified (career 34.5%). His whiff and walk rates were normal while his defense and arm strength were slightly down, but still finge-average-ish for a 2nd baseman. Nothing else from the peripherals seem to be an issue. He may bounce back next year, but 2 teams have come to the conclusion that it's unlikely. And as much as I'd like to hope that Urias is doing everything right and nobody is pushing their natural limits, a major power drop following a hamstring injury is always a red flag. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 18, 2023 22:20:13 GMT -5
While in general regressing to the mean is a worthy projection method, in cases where (whether due to injury or mechanical issues or something else) a player’s profile fundamentally changes, it can be misleading. Not sure which bucket Urias falls into, but I believe his quality of contact has been way down (even after his joining the Red Sox) and so they presumably think he’s got low odds of returning to the player he was a few years ago. This is conceivable, but he's 26 years old and I just don't think anyone should be updating that much on what kind of player they think he is based on 177 PAs that was interrupted by a bunch of time off due to injury.
(It's a little funny how his heyday keeps getting pushed back; eric called it "2 and 3 years ago," now you're saying "a few years ago." We're talking about 14 months ago.)
ADD: To wcsoxfan's point that "He may bounce back next year, but 2 teams have come to the conclusion that it's unlikely." We don't actually know this. All we know is:
- the Brewers didn't want to pay him $5 million, which is just basic Brewers SOP; and they have a good young player in Turang to take over at 2B, and maybe they really liked Blalock
- the Red Sox think they can do better than Urias, which might mean Polanco or Edman or something - the Mariners do in fact seem pretty confident that he'll bounce back
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 18, 2023 22:58:38 GMT -5
Fair, this is just the first domino. I will wait until the full picture is in sight. I'll just go on record saying I don't love this deal as I'm a believer in urias bouncing back. I'm not going to hammer breslow for this move. I just hope he has a trade target to fill 2nd base and doesn't plan to fill it with an FA (Merrifield).  His mustache is better than your mustache. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 18, 2023 23:22:09 GMT -5
I wish Luis the best and hope he taps back into his breakout stuff from 2021-22. The bottom line (per the bottom video) is that Isaiah Campbell is a future HOFer and World Champion and stuff, so I would say that a bat-first UT guy is a small price to pay for him. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 19, 2023 0:49:12 GMT -5
In all seriousness, I don’t see how anyone can be surprised that Urias is gone. The club went into the off-season with three bat-first guys with fringy gloves at 2B — two of them at the league minimum and one due to make $5m. Hmm.. which one do you move? Even if Urias bounced back to his peak performance at the plate he’s still a career 93 OPS+ vs. RHP and doesn’t have the glove to push Valdez off the strong side of a platoon.
I would be surprised if the paint is actually dry on their plan for starting 2B but if it is, it's not a ton worse than what they were already left with. With Urias out of the way, I hope their next move is to add, at the very least, a glove-10/bat-3 reserve MI. FA options include Brandon Crawford and Nick Ahmed. Possible trade targets include Nicky Lopez and Miguel Rojas. Hold your nose and cry "foul!" all you like but Pokey Reese had a career 67 wRC+, including a 45 for the 2004 Red Sox.
Of course, we can dream on a trade for Ha-Seong Kim, Willy Adames, or Andres Gimenez but that shouldn't keep you from making the small move for the slick-fielder first. You can always adjust later if you manage to swing the bigger deal.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 19, 2023 7:42:54 GMT -5
After his amazing 2 GS on two swings, Urias hit .207 .370 .259 .629 the rest of the reason (Aug 21 to Sept 20). His SLG was .259 and his shiny OBP was bolstered by 5 HBP in 73 PA
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Post by asm19 on Nov 19, 2023 8:03:00 GMT -5
The Red Sox probably have 100 times as much information to answer that question as we do ... and they have spoken. I think it's completely crazy to guess that he'll be fine when the team clearly believes he won't be.
I thought they'd non-tender him and sign him to a ml contract. This is much better.
The mariners clearly think he’s going to be fine and I’d argue they’ve easily been a better run team than the Sox lately… color us crazy!! I think there’s a good argument to be made that Urias’ odds of rebounding for the Mariners are 54%. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 19, 2023 10:07:15 GMT -5
The trade isn't about Urias at all. It's about the team and what they need. If Urias rebounds for a 2 WAR season, it's irrelevant. Look at where the Sox got their value last year. Two of the top twelve were relievers. Throw in Pivetta - 22 games in relief - and it's three out of the top twelve. I watched Campbell pitch quite a few games last year and he's perfectly capable of putting up a 2 WAR season himself. Pitching and defense, that's where the gap was. If he has the confidence to talk about having a path that could lead to the HoF now that he's in the bigs, all the better. |
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kwodes
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Post by kwodes on Nov 19, 2023 11:02:02 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2023 11:13:09 GMT -5
I’ll take the under on 2 WAR next year on Urias, and I’ll bet that every public projection system will too.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 19, 2023 11:30:18 GMT -5
I’ll take the under on 2 WAR next year on Urias, and I’ll bet that every public projection system will too. Steamer has him at 2.17 WAR / 150 games |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 19, 2023 12:13:27 GMT -5
ADD: To wcsoxfan's point that "He may bounce back next year, but 2 teams have come to the conclusion that it's unlikely." We don't actually know this. All we know is: - the Brewers didn't want to pay him $5 million, which is just basic Brewers SOP; and they have a good young player in Turang to take over at 2B, and maybe they really liked Blalock
- the Red Sox think they can do better than Urias, which might mean Polanco or Edman or something - the Mariners do in fact seem pretty confident that he'll bounce back
Your point on the Brewers is false. The Brewers were so disenfranchised with Urias after he returned from his hamstring injury that they sent him to AAA for the month of July. They simply didn't want him on their team, even as a backup, regardless of any return. Blalock was a 'something for nothing' get for the Brewers. After coming back from a calf injury, the Red Sox decided to lean on Valdez and Reyes - that's a 2nd team that decided not to play him. Likely because he wasn't in their future plans. If Urias were to return to his 2-fwar form, he would be better than Polanco, who has failed to reach that mark the last two year. Edman would be only a marginal upgrade at best (2.3 fWAR in 2023) as most of his past value is tied to baserunning and defense at SS. The Red Sox could have traded him upon acquiring another infielder but they traded him right before they would have had to guarantee his contract after multiple reports came out that they weren't expected tender him a contract. It's not a coincidence - look at the other trades being made right now. The Mariners know more than us, but less about Urias than the Brewers or Red Sox. Aside from trading a relief pitcher, what shows they're confident? You completely ignored the issues I brought up, but here's another one: in 120 AAA PA Urias had an 86 wRC+, you need to include that with the sample size. Not sure why you've chosen this hill to die on. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 19, 2023 12:44:31 GMT -5
ADD: To wcsoxfan's point that "He may bounce back next year, but 2 teams have come to the conclusion that it's unlikely." We don't actually know this. All we know is: - the Brewers didn't want to pay him $5 million, which is just basic Brewers SOP; and they have a good young player in Turang to take over at 2B, and maybe they really liked Blalock
- the Red Sox think they can do better than Urias, which might mean Polanco or Edman or something - the Mariners do in fact seem pretty confident that he'll bounce back
Your point on the Brewers is false. The Brewers were so disenfranchised with Urias after he returned from his hamstring injury that they sent him to AAA for the month of July. They simply didn't want him on their team, even as a backup, regardless of any return. Blalock was a 'something for nothing' get for the Brewers. After coming back from a calf injury, the Red Sox decided to lean on Valdez and Reyes - that's a 2nd team that decided not to play him. Likely because he wasn't in their future plans. If Urias were to return to his 2-fwar form, he would be better than Polanco, who has failed to reach that mark the last two year. Edman would be only a marginal upgrade at best (2.3 fWAR in 2023) as most of his past value is tied to baserunning and defense at SS. The Red Sox could have traded him upon acquiring another infielder but they traded him right before they would have had to guarantee his contract after multiple reports came out that they weren't expected tender him a contract. It's not a coincidence - look at the other trades being made right now. The Mariners know more than us, but less about Urias than the Brewers or Red Sox. Aside from trading a relief pitcher, what shows they're confident? You completely ignored the issues I brought up, but here's another one: in 120 AAA PA Urias had an 86 wRC+, you need to include that with the sample size. Not sure why you've chosen this hill to die on. The Brewers just added Blalock to the 40 man so clearly they like him. |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Nov 19, 2023 12:53:53 GMT -5
This is great. If we scrutinize every off-season move to this degree (in what I suspect will involve lots of movement), this thread will be hundreds of pages long! 😀
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Post by incandenza on Nov 19, 2023 13:35:19 GMT -5
ADD: To wcsoxfan's point that "He may bounce back next year, but 2 teams have come to the conclusion that it's unlikely." We don't actually know this. All we know is: - the Brewers didn't want to pay him $5 million, which is just basic Brewers SOP; and they have a good young player in Turang to take over at 2B, and maybe they really liked Blalock
- the Red Sox think they can do better than Urias, which might mean Polanco or Edman or something - the Mariners do in fact seem pretty confident that he'll bounce back
Your point on the Brewers is false. The Brewers were so disenfranchised with Urias after he returned from his hamstring injury that they sent him to AAA for the month of July. They simply didn't want him on their team, even as a backup, regardless of any return. Blalock was a 'something for nothing' get for the Brewers. After coming back from a calf injury, the Red Sox decided to lean on Valdez and Reyes - that's a 2nd team that decided not to play him. Likely because he wasn't in their future plans. If Urias were to return to his 2-fwar form, he would be better than Polanco, who has failed to reach that mark the last two year. Edman would be only a marginal upgrade at best (2.3 fWAR in 2023) as most of his past value is tied to baserunning and defense at SS. The Red Sox could have traded him upon acquiring another infielder but they traded him right before they would have had to guarantee his contract after multiple reports came out that they weren't expected tender him a contract. It's not a coincidence - look at the other trades being made right now. The Mariners know more than us, but less about Urias than the Brewers or Red Sox. Aside from trading a relief pitcher, what shows they're confident? You completely ignored the issues I brought up, but here's another one: in 120 AAA PA Urias had an 86 wRC+, you need to include that with the sample size. Not sure why you've chosen this hill to die on.Well do you want me to respond to every point you made or do you want me to not die on this hill? I didn't respond to every point you made because I'm trying not to die on this hill because I don't think people need to see me make 30 posts about how I think Luis Urias is an average-ish major leaguer - not really the most exciting topic to hash out endlessly.
But if you're really eager for my interpretation of his stats during his rehab in AAA, here goes: he got injured at the beginning of the season. Then he stunk in a 9-game rehab stint (18 wRC+). Then they called him up and he stunk in 64 PAs in June (70 wRC+). Then they sent him back down and he stunk for a couple weeks (70 wRC+ through July 15th). And then he got hot (140 wRC+ through the rest of the month). Then the Red Sox acquired him and he was basically fine in 100 PAs in the majors (98 wRC+).
This, to me, looks like a classic case of a guy getting injured, then being nagged by the injury for a while and taking some time to get over it, but eventually recovering. With a full off-season I'd expect him to be fine next year. People (including you) have brought up some good points about how his batted ball profile looked worse this year even with Boston, but I think that's probably a function of his trying to recover from injury as well.
I've explicitly said that the Red Sox may have been cool on him because his medicals look bad; in other words, maybe they think his injury will be an issue going forward. So I'm granting that as a possibility; obviously none of us are in a position to say. Otherwise, though, I would expect a 26-year-old to be able to recover their previous form after an injury-marred season.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 19, 2023 14:01:32 GMT -5
No matter what, this was never a move that was going to derail or have a significant impact on the 2024 season
Hence why we were all about 90% sure he would be non-tendered, which is why a lot of us think this is a nice little deal to get something as opposed to nothing
Think we can all move on to some more relevant moves to come
Instead of what happens to our non-tender candidates
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