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Post by incandenza on Nov 21, 2023 12:15:13 GMT -5
It's the official start of holiday season: the release of the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot.
Who I'd vote for Abreu Beltran Beltre Helton Jones Pettitte
Manny A. Rodriguez Sheffield Utley
Mauer's an interesting case. I don't think the numbers are quite there but do you give him a "face of the franchise" boost, or just for being a catcher? I was also tempted by Holliday. Pettitte is always the ultimate borderline case for me.
Who I think will get in Beltre Helton Wagner
I think Jones will be close but it'll be another year or two before he gets in.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 21, 2023 12:21:47 GMT -5
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,121
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Post by cdj on Nov 21, 2023 12:58:39 GMT -5
zero chance Vizquel gets in, too much smoke around his character (DV allegations, sexual harassment lawsuit filed by an autistic bat boy that he reached a settlement with) for him to get enough votes
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 21, 2023 13:47:53 GMT -5
Helton Mauer Holliday Beltré Ultley
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Post by incandenza on Nov 21, 2023 14:16:33 GMT -5
I think I'm probably going to end up getting convinced that Mauer should be elected. But just for the sake of argument, I think the case against it would be:
- was only a catcher for about 60% of his career - had the same career wRC+ as Jorge Posada - had a lower fWAR total than both Brian McCann and Russell Martin - had 6 very good seasons but outside of those never had more than 3.3 fWAR or 117 wRC+ in a season - only 143 homers; only one season with more than 13 - in his entire postseason career he had a .641 OPS across 10 games
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 21, 2023 14:19:35 GMT -5
Mauer's a top-ten catcher all time.
FG is giving Martin and McCann (and Yadier Molina) a TON of credit for pitch framing. I'm just not buying that it made up that huge gap in offense.
If Posada had combined his excellent offense with being even a decent catcher (much less a very good one) then he'd be in the Hall too.
Come on, man
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 21, 2023 14:38:49 GMT -5
Mauer doesn't pass the WAR/counting stats thresholds, but that doesn't really matter all that much to me.
Local golden boy gets drafted #1 to the small market Twins, is in the discussion for best player in baseball for about a decade, does everything the right way and becomes an alltime Minnesota sports legend, and then his body breaks down and he doesn't have much to offer in his 30s. That's an easy yes.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 21, 2023 14:46:06 GMT -5
Mauer's a top-ten catcher all time. FG is giving Martin and McCann (and Yadier Molina) a TON of credit for pitch framing. I'm just not buying that it made up that huge gap in offense. If Posada had combined his excellent offense with being even a decent catcher (much less a very good one) then he'd be in the Hall too. Come on, man Can he be a top-10 catcher when just under 50% of his PAs came as a catcher? McCann had 867 wRC as a catcher; Martin had 801; Posada had 677; Mauer just 658.
The point about the postseason stats is obviously not that that's a meaningful sample size; it's that there's no postseason track record to burnish his credentials.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 21, 2023 14:51:50 GMT -5
He was primarily a catcher through 2013. Thinking otherwise punishes him for having such a good bat that his Twins got him into the lineup as DH or 1B on the days he wasn't catching. He was a borderline Hall of Famer already through 2013, so I'm not going to hold those five years of being basically a post-peak average-ish first baseman against his accomplishments while he was a catcher Here are the B-Ref numbers on Runs above average from hitting and fielding. Those other guys are not in Mauer's stratosphere: Mauer: 258 (239/19) Molina: 90 (-48/138) Martin: 88 (32/56) McCann: 55 (77/-22) Fangraphs considers McCann and Martin to be the third and fourth best defensive players of the last 30 years, ahead of Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel. If you believe that, then the argument is one that McCann and Martin are Hall of Famers too, not one that Mauer is not: www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=1990&season=2020&pos=all&sortcol=20&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 21, 2023 14:52:04 GMT -5
Mauer doesn't pass the WAR/counting stats thresholds, but that doesn't really matter all that much to me. Local golden boy gets drafted #1 to the small market Twins, is in the discussion for best player in baseball for about a decade, does everything the right way and becomes an alltime Minnesota sports legend, and then his body breaks down and he doesn't have much to offer in his 30s. That's an easy yes. By rWAR he's the 9th best catcher of all time, with the 5th best peak, putting him 7th from a JAWS perspective and above the hall of fame standard for catchers on all 3. I also agree that all the soft factors you mentioned should be factored in.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 417
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Post by badfishnbc on Nov 21, 2023 14:55:43 GMT -5
Love that James Shields' Wikipedia page features a picture of the June 6, 2008 brawl at Fenway. That alone merits a few votes (but subtract 2 votes for his swing-and-miss punch).
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Post by yuchangclan on Nov 21, 2023 15:22:01 GMT -5
Helton Beltre Mauer Andruw
I won’t waste my time with the likes of Manny, Pettitte, ARod or Sheffield. If Bonds and Clemens can’t get the “PED votes”, neither should these guys. Manny, ARod and Sheffield are slam dunks otherwise.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 21, 2023 15:29:31 GMT -5
Okay you guys convinced me. Mauer in, Pettitte out. (First ballot crunch in a few years.)
But I've convinced myself that McCann will deserve a look when he comes on the ballot next year. Even if the gaudy WAR total is mostly about defense... catcher defense is really important! To James' point, it seems appropriate, doesn't it, that a couple of catchers would be among the most valuable defensive players of the past generation? The hard part is measuring catcher defense...
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,791
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Post by mobaz on Nov 21, 2023 17:14:22 GMT -5
Does Chase Utley benefit from Rolen making it finally, or does he have to wait similarly long since he derived a lot of mid-career value on Defense? Rolen had 70 bWar, Utley 65. (fWar is 70 to 61). Mauer is a no brainer to me, well-done arguments above include my perspective. Other than Beltre, not anyone else first ballot I see making it. Billy Wagner and Helton got really close last year, but they could be hurt by Beltre and Mauer.
I'd have: Beltre Mauer Beltran (Post-season MONSTER!) A-Jones Utley and probably Helton.
I'd vote for Manny and A-Rod but why bother...
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Nov 24, 2023 12:21:14 GMT -5
Okay you guys convinced me ... Much liked the all-elusive Blue-crowned laughingthrush, there is a thing one doesn't encounter very often in this forest. Might be a first time. Notating in diary now.
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Post by costpet on Nov 24, 2023 12:30:27 GMT -5
No PED guys. No Alex, no Manny
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 24, 2023 13:04:01 GMT -5
I'd go with;
Beltre Wagner Helton Jones Mauer Utley
I would wait a year on Beltran
I want to think about Abreu a little more
If Bonds and Clemens arent in then none of the obvious steroid guys should be in.
If they were in then I'd vote in Sheffield, Manny, and A-Rod and would have voted for Palmeiro, Sosa, and McGwire a long time ago.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,836
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 24, 2023 13:32:34 GMT -5
I tend to be stingy with my mythical vote. I'd go with Beltre, Helton and Mauer.
Utley, Andruw and Red Sox Great Billy Wagner are tough omissions for me.
And let's not forget the Eras Committee election with the results to announced on Dec. 3: Cito Gaston; Davey Johnson; Jim Leyland; Ed Montague; Hank Peters; Lou Piniella; Joe West; Bill White.
The Eras Committee is unpredictable. That said, I expect Leyland to get elected. Cito and his two straight WS wins are underrated, so I'd like to see him get in. I also wouldn't be surprised if one of the umpires got in. I'd bet on Montague.
I don't want to see Piniella get elected for obvious reasons.
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Post by manfred on Nov 24, 2023 13:39:45 GMT -5
I’m a no on Wagner. Dude was dominant — in the regular season. But he was so consistently awful in the postseason. I think closers, given the nature of their role, need to show a little more to stand out, and the post season is one way to do that. Give me a great run there… it convinces me.
Beltre should be unanimous. Mauer should be in. Those are my only two without reservation. Helton I’m fine with but less enthusiastic.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 24, 2023 14:00:51 GMT -5
No PED guys. No Alex, no Manny How do you feel about guys who bang on trashcans?
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Post by costpet on Nov 24, 2023 14:18:59 GMT -5
Trash ‘em.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 24, 2023 15:13:58 GMT -5
I tend to be stingy with my mythical vote. I'd go with Beltre, Helton and Mauer. Utley, Andruw and Red Sox Great Billy Wagner are tough omissions for me. And let's not forget the Eras Committee election with the results to announced on Dec. 3: Cito Gaston; Davey Johnson; Jim Leyland; Ed Montague; Hank Peters; Lou Piniella; Joe West; Bill White. The Eras Committee is unpredictable. That said, I expect Leyland to get elected. Cito and his two straight WS wins are underrated, so I'd like to see him get in. I also wouldn't be surprised if one of the umpires got in. I'd bet on Montague. I don't want to see Piniella get elected for obvious reasons. I'm guessing LaRussa stumps hard for Leyland and he gets in. I think he should anyways. Too bad Dwifht Evan's or Luis Tiant didnt have LaRussa in their corner. I'd strongly consider Piniella and Davey Johnson who was successful wherever he went.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,836
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 25, 2023 10:58:35 GMT -5
www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2023/12/17/gary-sheffield-deserves-baseball-hall-of-fame/71944010007/I'm a hardliner when it comes to keeping confirmed PED users out of the HOF and always assumed that Gary Sheffield was one of them. But this story in USA Today has me rethinking that. I'm wondering what others who don't want users in the HOF think about it. Sheffield (obviously not a distinterested party in the matter) and Victor Conte (obviously a scumbag, but I'm not sure why he'd have reason to lie for Sheffield) make a compelling case that Sheffield did not knowingly use and that his unknowing usage was extremely short-lived.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 25, 2023 11:16:02 GMT -5
www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2023/12/17/gary-sheffield-deserves-baseball-hall-of-fame/71944010007/I'm a hardliner when it comes to keeping confirmed PED users out of the HOF and always assumed that Gary Sheffield was one of them. But this story in USA Today has me rethinking that. I'm wondering what others who don't want users in the HOF think about it. Sheffield (obviously not a distinterested party in the matter) and Victor Conte (obviously a scumbag, but I'm not sure why he'd have reason to lie for Sheffield) make a compelling case that Sheffield did not knowingly use and that his unknowing usage was extremely short-lived. The 'evidence" against him is kind of sketchy. I do hope he gets in. I have to say that when he was on the Yankees he was the guy I feared the most. And he was on the multiple teams he played with. When I did mock voting I vote for him but refrain from other proven or strongly suspected juicers. I hope he gets in. He certainly belongs. And I do believe him.
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Post by Jimmy on Dec 25, 2023 11:36:41 GMT -5
My ballot:
Carlos Beltrán Adrián Beltré Todd Helton Joe Mauer Alex Rodriguez Manny Ramirez Gary Sheffield Billy Wagner
On the fence for Utley & Jones
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