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2023-2024 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 15, 2024 12:39:02 GMT -5
The degree to which Spencer Jones lives rent free in this boards’ head is absurd. I get that as Sox fans there’s some gravitation towards hating the Yankees whenever possible but if the general consensus of objective (relatively) pundits like him, and Sox fans don’t… who’s the biased party here? That’s not to see that they’re all right and that he’s a perfect prospect, but it’s also pretty obvious what they see in him, so I just don’t understand the collective need to fanatically complain about him in particular. This is the thread for commenting on national lists, is it not? Longenhagen is the only one who’s really in love with him, he didn’t even make Keith Law’s top 100. Where else is one to comment about how national lists rank our biggest rival’s prospects? I have to admit though, you yourself made a very insightful contribution to the discussion by pointing out that the Apple iPhone loves to autocorrect Mayer to Meyer. And now that Keith Law is saying good things about the Red Sox, I’m going to assume no one here is going to categorize his stuff as “lazy” anymore? I’m just pointing out that the commentary is disingenuous, if people want to have reasonable discussions about Jones’ ranking and projections I think that’s great but the incessant whining is obnoxious, especially when in my mind threads about rankings or the draft are ideally a safe haven from the copious amounts of that we already get everywhere else.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 15, 2024 12:58:07 GMT -5
In an attempt to steer the ship back onto course a little bit, I will note that I've read Bleis' writeup a couple times now, and my interpretation of it is that they are itching for an excuse to move him up. I do think he fits the very Fangraphs "type", so that's not surprising, but it's nice to be reminded of why everyone was so excited for him going into last year.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 15, 2024 13:23:23 GMT -5
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,182
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Post by cdj on Feb 15, 2024 13:58:10 GMT -5
I challenge Mr. Longenhagen to a duel!!
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Post by capesox on Feb 15, 2024 16:28:34 GMT -5
Longenhagen has Bleis at 71 too. Rated higher then Teel right now and 2 spots behind Mayer? hmmm
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 15, 2024 17:29:12 GMT -5
I'm not really sure I get the idea that FG has always been low on Mayer. Last year they had him #18 and the other main lists were 7-13. Sure, 18 is a little lower, but still pretty small in that range. This is a big drop out of the 55 tier and into the middle of the 50 tier. The distribution also has him with a 55% chance of being a 45 or below player. That would be a major problem for a team waiting to build a core around their elite hitting prospects. FWIW, Anthony is at 50%, Rafaela is a bit under 60%, Bleis is at 70% and Teel is at 65%. Anthony is the only prospect with at least a 50/50 chance to be an average player. Longenhagen is the only one who's ever raised concern about his defense. Even if not reflected in the top 100 last year I do think it's a fair statement.
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Post by rhswanzey on Feb 15, 2024 20:23:03 GMT -5
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Post by boylstonbarhopper on Feb 15, 2024 20:57:16 GMT -5
I'm not really sure I get the idea that FG has always been low on Mayer. Last year they had him #18 and the other main lists were 7-13. Sure, 18 is a little lower, but still pretty small in that range. This is a big drop out of the 55 tier and into the middle of the 50 tier. The distribution also has him with a 55% chance of being a 45 or below player. That would be a major problem for a team waiting to build a core around their elite hitting prospects. FWIW, Anthony is at 50%, Rafaela is a bit under 60%, Bleis is at 70% and Teel is at 65%. Anthony is the only prospect with at least a 50/50 chance to be an average player. Longenhagen is the only one who's ever raised concern about his defense. Even if not reflected in the top 100 last year I do think it's a fair statement. That's not true at all, there are plenty of evaluators who think Mayer will end up at third. Here's MLB.com: "Mayer is bigger and slower than most shortstops, so the top question surrounding him is whether he'll play the position on a long-term basis in the Majors. He compensates for below-average speed with a quick first step and keen instincts, and the consensus is that he can be an asset with a strong arm at shortstop. Some scouts believe he'll wind up at third base, where he might be a plus defender while still profiling well offensively."
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 16, 2024 9:58:54 GMT -5
Fangraphs released its ZiPS-only top prospect list today. That model likes the Sox farm as much as any system in baseball.
18. Mayer 22. Anthony 26. Rafaela 66. Teel 76. Yorke
Sox also have a league-high 12 top-200 prospects. Nice to see Yorke getting some love, though the write up says ZiPS tends to be higher on 2B in general than the scouting community, so it's not too surprising.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 16, 2024 10:06:22 GMT -5
Fangraphs released its ZiPS-only top prospect list today. That model likes the Sox farm as much as any system in baseball. 18. Mayer 22. Anthony 26. Rafaela 66. Teel 76. York Sox also have a league-high 12 top-200 prospects. Nice to see York getting some love, though the write up says ZiPS tends to be higher on 2B in general than the scouting community, so it's not too surprising. I am still a Yorke believer, is he going to be a superstar? Probably not but it sounds like he should be able to stick at 2nd and be an average-ish fielder with a good enough bat to be an every day guy. That's nothing to shake a stick at, that's quite honestly all you can ever ask out of prospects in my opinion anyway. It offers real value, will that be in Boston? I'd like for it to be in Boston being a guy we've followed from day one but I'm not so sure it will be with Grissom in town, but either way I do think Yorke sticks somewhere as an MLBer.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 16, 2024 10:16:36 GMT -5
ZiPS continues to be a mystery to me. Jagger Haynes is a 2020 5th round pick who had Tommy John and didn't debut until 2023 when he threw 25 innings with an ERA and FIP around 4 in Low-A. And somehow he snuck in to the top 100. How is that possible given the data ZiPS is using as inputs? I don't get it
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 16, 2024 10:46:32 GMT -5
Composite ranking for BA, MLB, ESPN, Law, and BP. Not the five I'd pick but useful. Interesting that Mayer and Anthony wind up next to each other.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 16, 2024 10:52:01 GMT -5
Wait who ranked Chourio sixth??
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 16, 2024 11:12:48 GMT -5
Wait who ranked Chourio sixth?? Must be BP because it's none of the other 4. See my prior point...
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Post by Guidas on Feb 16, 2024 12:19:41 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Feb 16, 2024 12:23:41 GMT -5
Could it also be that Longenhagen is dinging Mayer because he's lost essentially a year of development time to injuries. Granted, none of these injuries appear to be of the chronic "gotta watch that" type, but cumulatively, they could've put up a flag in the model.
I have no knowledge this explains his ranking, just postulating.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 16, 2024 12:26:26 GMT -5
Could it also be that Longenhagen is dinging Mayer because he's lost essentially a year of development time to injuries. Granted, none of these injuries appear to be of the chronic "gotta watch that" type, but cumulatively, they could've put up a flag in the model. I have no knowledge this explains his ranking, just postulating. Feels like if that were the case, Bleis would’ve fallen out of the top 100 (at least assuming the same logic gets applied consistently).
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 16, 2024 13:00:27 GMT -5
Could it also be that Longenhagen is dinging Mayer because he's lost essentially a year of development time to injuries. Granted, none of these injuries appear to be of the chronic "gotta watch that" type, but cumulatively, they could've put up a flag in the model. I have no knowledge this explains his ranking, just postulating. If I had to guess, it’s the 30 grade he gave his defense. You can live with question marks about the hit tool with a solid shortstop defender, but if you don’t think he can play short then the profile gets scarier. That grade is a little weird to me because FG did an article in September evaluating defense for a bunch of top SS prospects and concluded he was likely to stick. He also has the arm as fringey, whereas SP has it as plus. Interesting indeed. On the hit tool, Longenhagen has talked a lot about getting burned on Spencer Torkelson (who was excellent in the second half, so not sure that’s being fair to himself to begin with) by ignoring similar issues he’s talking about with Mayer. That’s fair, but I think dropping him to 69 and insinuating that a slow start will get him off the top 100 entirely is probably an overreaction.
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Post by bentossaurus on Feb 16, 2024 14:20:49 GMT -5
Could it also be that Longenhagen is dinging Mayer because he's lost essentially a year of development time to injuries. Granted, none of these injuries appear to be of the chronic "gotta watch that" type, but cumulatively, they could've put up a flag in the model. I have no knowledge this explains his ranking, just postulating. While yes, it could be, there's an almost comical amount of pitchers ranked by him who are recovering from TJ. Seems like every other SP has missed a season at least. I'd argue that a TJ is much more ominous for a player's projection than Mayer's shoulder injury. I really think he just doesn't rate him that highly.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 16, 2024 15:48:44 GMT -5
Could it also be that Longenhagen is dinging Mayer because he's lost essentially a year of development time to injuries. Granted, none of these injuries appear to be of the chronic "gotta watch that" type, but cumulatively, they could've put up a flag in the model. I have no knowledge this explains his ranking, just postulating. No subscription is needed to read the Fangraphs Top 100 write-ups and they're worth checking out, for the Sox guys at minimum: blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/ Here's Mayer:
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 16, 2024 15:57:17 GMT -5
Composite ranking for BA, MLB, ESPN, Law, and BP. Not the five I'd pick but useful. Interesting that Mayer and Anthony wind up next to each other. That dude stole my work! Kidding, but here's a snippet of my own tracker, filtered to just the Sox guys. The MP Rank is only derived from the purple column headers, but I included a couple fantasy-minded guys - including friend of the site, Chris Clegg - as well as ZiPS. Anyone not in a top 100 list gets an auto 150 assigned.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 16, 2024 16:26:01 GMT -5
Could it also be that Longenhagen is dinging Mayer because he's lost essentially a year of development time to injuries. Granted, none of these injuries appear to be of the chronic "gotta watch that" type, but cumulatively, they could've put up a flag in the model. I have no knowledge this explains his ranking, just postulating. No subscription is needed to read the Fangraphs Top 100 write-ups and they're worth checking out, for the Sox guys at minimum: blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/ Here's Mayer: Good Lord. This is like a flashing digital billboard with the message "TRADE HIM NOW!!" On the flipside, this seems to be the complete other side of the scale from evaluators who say the bat and the defense should play at All Star quality in MLB once he's settled in.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 16, 2024 17:40:43 GMT -5
Good Lord. This is like a flashing digital billboard with the message "TRADE HIM NOW!!" On the flipside, this seems to be the complete other side of the scale from evaluators who say the bat and the defense should play at All Star quality in MLB once he's settled in. I dunno, to me it's kind of silly. The analysis is basically "Mayer injured his shoulder on May 7th last year and after that he wasn't throwing or hitting as well. So, uh, dude sucks." They cite things like performance against breaking balls that supposedly have been worrying for two years, but only provide stats for 2023 when he was injured for all but five weeks. I have no trouble with people ranking guys far away from consensus provided their justifications make sense. This one doesn't.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 16, 2024 18:41:33 GMT -5
Good Lord. This is like a flashing digital billboard with the message "TRADE HIM NOW!!" On the flipside, this seems to be the complete other side of the scale from evaluators who say the bat and the defense should play at All Star quality in MLB once he's settled in. I dunno, to me it's kind of silly. The analysis is basically "Mayer injured his shoulder on May 7th last year and after that he wasn't throwing or hitting as well. So, uh, dude sucks." They cite things like performance against breaking balls that supposedly have been worrying for two years, but only provide stats for 2023 when he was injured for all but five weeks. I have no trouble with people ranking guys far away from consensus provided their justifications make sense. This one doesn't. Their justification does make sense if they're correct that his defense is a 35 level and he's ultimately going to have to move off SS. From what ive read the other main stream evaluators don't agree with that nor does this site so I'm hopeful that fangraphs are wrong but to dismiss their writeup as unjustified I think would be incorrect.
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Post by foreverred9 on Feb 16, 2024 19:21:42 GMT -5
The injury makes it impossible for me to stress over the evaluations right now. Ask me again mid-year.
If he still struggles this year at AA he'll be dropping down lists. But if he hits fine, the reset button is going to get hit and then it becomes a question of durability and playing a full season.
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