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2023-2024 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 16, 2024 19:37:45 GMT -5
I dunno, to me it's kind of silly. The analysis is basically "Mayer injured his shoulder on May 7th last year and after that he wasn't throwing or hitting as well. So, uh, dude sucks." They cite things like performance against breaking balls that supposedly have been worrying for two years, but only provide stats for 2023 when he was injured for all but five weeks. I have no trouble with people ranking guys far away from consensus provided their justifications make sense. This one doesn't. Their justification does make sense if they're correct that his defense is a 35 level and he's ultimately going to have to move off SS. From what ive read the other main stream evaluators don't agree with that nor does this site so I'm hopeful that fangraphs are wrong but to dismiss their writeup as unjustified I think would be incorrect. I have never seen him play myself, so again, I wouldn't knock someone in a vacuum for thinking he can't stick at SS. The thing I take issue with is doing that based on evaluations while he was injured, then throwing in quips like "we aren’t long from Mayer having been frustrating for a longer than he was good," as if the entirety of the time he has underwhelmed in the minors hasn't coincided with him being injured... At least they were consistent in saying they felt he would eventually have to move off SS for two years now, but the write-up repeatedly pulls from 2023 evaluations to make that point.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 16, 2024 19:43:35 GMT -5
Their justification does make sense if they're correct that his defense is a 35 level and he's ultimately going to have to move off SS. From what ive read the other main stream evaluators don't agree with that nor does this site so I'm hopeful that fangraphs are wrong but to dismiss their writeup as unjustified I think would be incorrect. I have never seen him play myself, so again, I wouldn't knock someone in a vacuum for thinking he can't stick at SS. The thing I take issue with is doing that based on evaluations while he was injured, then throwing in quips like "we aren’t long from Mayer having been frustrating for a longer than he was good," as if the entirety of the time he has underwhelmed in the minors hasn't coincided with him being injured... At least they were consistent in saying they felt he would eventually have to move off SS for two years now, but the write-up repeatedly pulls from 2023 evaluations to make that point.
Fair enough and I also found the sentence that he's close to being frustrating longer than he's been good as a strange knock that made little sense to me.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 16, 2024 20:13:36 GMT -5
I have never seen him play myself, so again, I wouldn't knock someone in a vacuum for thinking he can't stick at SS. The thing I take issue with is doing that based on evaluations while he was injured, then throwing in quips like "we aren’t long from Mayer having been frustrating for a longer than he was good," as if the entirety of the time he has underwhelmed in the minors hasn't coincided with him being injured... At least they were consistent in saying they felt he would eventually have to move off SS for two years now, but the write-up repeatedly pulls from 2023 evaluations to make that point.
Fair enough and I also found the sentence that he's close to being frustrating longer than he's been good as a strange knock that made little sense to me. If you change the “he” to a “she,” I dated her in the mid-90s.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 17, 2024 1:47:51 GMT -5
Composite ranking for BA, MLB, ESPN, Law, and BP. Not the five I'd pick but useful. Interesting that Mayer and Anthony wind up next to each other. That dude stole my work! Kidding, but here's a snippet of my own tracker, filtered to just the Sox guys. The MP Rank is only derived from the purple column headers, but I included a couple fantasy-minded guys - including friend of the site, Chris Clegg - as well as ZiPS. Anyone not in a top 100 list gets an auto 150 assigned. I know it's not you but Abreu seems under-appreciated to me. His game is solid on both sides of the field. Maybe evaluators didn't see him in the minors Seemed pretty obvious to me. Methinks a Dewey/prime Trot-esque career lies ahead.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 17, 2024 5:53:29 GMT -5
Composite ranking for BA, MLB, ESPN, Law, and BP. Not the five I'd pick but useful. Interesting that Mayer and Anthony wind up next to each other. That dude stole my work! Kidding, but here's a snippet of my own tracker, filtered to just the Sox guys. The MP Rank is only derived from the purple column headers, but I included a couple fantasy-minded guys - including friend of the site, Chris Clegg - as well as ZiPS. Anyone not in a top 100 list gets an auto 150 assigned. Nice sheet. I do something similar, but curious if you put in stock 150s even for guys who just miss people's lists. I don't think it applied to any Sox prospects this year, but for examples BA had 15 just missed and I give all those guys 115s and Law had 10 so I give them all 110s. Might give a smidge more accuracy for a fun personal excercise thatn just giving those guys stock 150s. Oh, and if you have access Kiley do give rankings in his team reports to all of his 45+s which goes down to about 180. As it happens both Rafaela (152) and Abreu (160) are pretty close to the stock 150.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 17, 2024 6:08:40 GMT -5
Good Lord. This is like a flashing digital billboard with the message "TRADE HIM NOW!!" On the flipside, this seems to be the complete other side of the scale from evaluators who say the bat and the defense should play at All Star quality in MLB once he's settled in. I dunno, to me it's kind of silly. The analysis is basically "Mayer injured his shoulder on May 7th last year and after that he wasn't throwing or hitting as well. So, uh, dude sucks." They cite things like performance against breaking balls that supposedly have been worrying for two years, but only provide stats for 2023 when he was injured for all but five weeks. I have no trouble with people ranking guys far away from consensus provided their justifications make sense. This one doesn't. My understanding is that Chris and Ian have mentioned the breaking ball issue with regard to Mayer's healthy 2022 season too. These guys write short blurbs on a 100+ prospects they can't do a deeply detailed writeup citing every single bit of data that they have access to. That's especially true in FG case where the team lists stretch out to July as is! I understand we're all Sox fans and want to think the best of these players, but they will mostly fail and understanding their limitations earlier is frankly a more realistic way to go through following prospects. The top line production with Mayer is good when healthy. But underneath that top line production is a two year stretch with significant difficulty hitting A ball breaking pitches even when healthy. If you don't get why that might be a concerning reason to drop a player down lists or why a disinterested national observer might find that "frustrating" for an elite draft pick, then I think it might be time to put aside the Sox colored glasses for a bit. I assume I come as negative about these guys, but I've been following prospects for a long time. I find that if I can't answer the question "why will this guy fail?" then I have a lesser understanding of the player. And I don't just mean a general - of course players don't live up to the minor league hype. One of the things I like about Longenhagen and to some extent Law as well is that they sometimes hone in negatives that may end up more determinative than the glowy buzzy reports that people might find more interesting. You know sometimes it's good to look at Sox prospects the way we look at Yankees prospects. lol
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 17, 2024 8:14:34 GMT -5
I dunno, to me it's kind of silly. The analysis is basically "Mayer injured his shoulder on May 7th last year and after that he wasn't throwing or hitting as well. So, uh, dude sucks." They cite things like performance against breaking balls that supposedly have been worrying for two years, but only provide stats for 2023 when he was injured for all but five weeks. I have no trouble with people ranking guys far away from consensus provided their justifications make sense. This one doesn't. My understanding is that Chris and Ian have mentioned the breaking ball issue with regard to Mayer's healthy 2022 season too. These guys write short blurbs on a 100+ prospects they can't do a deeply detailed writeup citing every single bit of data that they have access to. That's especially true in FG case where the team lists stretch out to July as is! I understand we're all Sox fans and want to think the best of these players, but they will mostly fail and understanding their limitations earlier is frankly a more realistic way to go through following prospects. The top line production with Mayer is good when healthy. But underneath that top line production is a two year stretch with significant difficulty hitting A ball breaking pitches even when healthy. If you don't get why that might be a concerning reason to drop a player down lists or why a disinterested national observer might find that "frustrating" for an elite draft pick, then I think it might be time to put aside the Sox colored glasses for a bit. I assume I come as negative about these guys, but I've been following prospects for a long time. I find that if I can't answer the question "why will this guy fail?" then I have a lesser understanding of the player. And I don't just mean a general - of course players don't live up to the minor league hype. One of the things I like about Longenhagen and to some extent Law as well is that they sometimes hone in negatives that may end up more determinative than the glowy buzzy reports that people might find more interesting. You know sometimes it's good to look at Sox prospects the way we look at Yankees prospects. lol The SP write-up also thinks his hit tool is potentially above average, so clearly they're not too concerned. Fangraphs gives it a future 40. He just turned 21 and has had impactful wrist and shoulder issues over the past two years. Any player that age is of course going to have some things to work on, and needing to work on hitting breaking pitches is going to be a common critique for guys his age. I'll take that any day over not being able to catch up to a fastball. Besides, while I don't have his numbers against breaking balls in 2022, his numbers overall were outstanding throughout the minors until the shoulder injury. If he was anywhere near as tragic against breaking stuff in 2022 and before the injury in 2023 he must have been Barry Bonds against fastballs.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 17, 2024 8:37:36 GMT -5
My understanding is that Chris and Ian have mentioned the breaking ball issue with regard to Mayer's healthy 2022 season too. These guys write short blurbs on a 100+ prospects they can't do a deeply detailed writeup citing every single bit of data that they have access to. That's especially true in FG case where the team lists stretch out to July as is! I understand we're all Sox fans and want to think the best of these players, but they will mostly fail and understanding their limitations earlier is frankly a more realistic way to go through following prospects. The top line production with Mayer is good when healthy. But underneath that top line production is a two year stretch with significant difficulty hitting A ball breaking pitches even when healthy. If you don't get why that might be a concerning reason to drop a player down lists or why a disinterested national observer might find that "frustrating" for an elite draft pick, then I think it might be time to put aside the Sox colored glasses for a bit. I assume I come as negative about these guys, but I've been following prospects for a long time. I find that if I can't answer the question "why will this guy fail?" then I have a lesser understanding of the player. And I don't just mean a general - of course players don't live up to the minor league hype. One of the things I like about Longenhagen and to some extent Law as well is that they sometimes hone in negatives that may end up more determinative than the glowy buzzy reports that people might find more interesting. You know sometimes it's good to look at Sox prospects the way we look at Yankees prospects. lol The SP write-up also thinks his hit tool is potentially above average, so clearly they're not too concerned. Fangraphs gives it a future 40. He just turned 21 and has had impactful wrist and shoulder issues over the past two years. Any player that age is of course going to have some things to work on, and needing to work on hitting breaking pitches is going to be a common critique for guys his age. I'll take that any day over not being able to catch up to a fastball. Besides, while I don't have his numbers against breaking balls in 2022, his numbers overall were outstanding throughout the minors until the shoulder injury. If he was anywhere near as tragic against breaking stuff in 2022 and before the injury in 2023 he must have been Barry Bonds against fastballs. Was he truly outstanding in Hi-A while healthy? 265/379/449 in 116 PA 290/366/524 in 164 PA What does that average out to? 280/370/480? I'm not saying that's not good and I certainly thought he was on track, but he was not tearing up the league, he was not, to me, outstanding as a hi-A hitter. I mean if an 850 OPS is outstanding, what's a 950 OPS? Godlike. Maybe you think it's semantics, but I'm a dial down the hyperbole guy. Good is good and good enough, it doesn't have to be called outstanding. And I think you are overrating how good you have to be against fastballs to have that kind of line because most pitches he's hitting are fastballs. According to FG in 2023 he was something like 50 pts of OPS better than his overall line vs fastballs while being terrible against breaking balls. So maybe in Hi-A he hit 850 overall and 900 v fastballs and 600 v breaking balls? The reason it is getting mentioned by disinterested national observers and to their credit the SP duo is that it's a big discrepancy and ought to be concerning.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 17, 2024 9:20:04 GMT -5
The SP write-up also thinks his hit tool is potentially above average, so clearly they're not too concerned. Fangraphs gives it a future 40. He just turned 21 and has had impactful wrist and shoulder issues over the past two years. Any player that age is of course going to have some things to work on, and needing to work on hitting breaking pitches is going to be a common critique for guys his age. I'll take that any day over not being able to catch up to a fastball. Besides, while I don't have his numbers against breaking balls in 2022, his numbers overall were outstanding throughout the minors until the shoulder injury. If he was anywhere near as tragic against breaking stuff in 2022 and before the injury in 2023 he must have been Barry Bonds against fastballs. Was he truly outstanding in Hi-A while healthy? 265/379/449 in 116 PA 290/366/524 in 164 PA What does that average out to? 280/370/480? I'm not saying that's not good and I certainly thought he was on track, but he was not tearing up the league, he was not, to me, outstanding as a hi-A hitter. I mean if an 850 OPS is outstanding, what's a 950 OPS? Godlike. Maybe you think it's semantics, but I'm a dial down the hyperbole guy. Good is good and good enough, it doesn't have to be called outstanding. And I think you are overrating how good you have to be against fastballs to have that kind of line because most pitches he's hitting are fastballs. According to FG in 2023 he was something like 50 pts of OPS better than his overall line vs fastballs while being terrible against breaking balls. So maybe in Hi-A he hit 850 overall and 900 v fastballs and 600 v breaking balls? The reason it is getting mentioned by disinterested national observers and to their credit the SP duo is that it's a big discrepancy and ought to be concerning. Putting up a 139 wRC+ at age 20 in Hi-A is excellent no matter what position you play, but it’s especially good for a shortstop. Obviously it’s not apples to apples, but a big league shortstop who hits that well while playing average defense is a 5-6 WAR player. The numbers against offspeed/breaking stuff can’t be hand waived away, especially as he starts to face more advanced pitching, but he just turned 21 in December. He’s got time to make those adjustments. And for what it’s worth, MLB batters hit for a .653 OPS/.283 wOBA against breaking balls, a .648 OPS/.282 wOBA against offspeed pitches, and a .797 OPS/.346 wOBA against fastballs. Virtually everyone does most of their damage against fastballs.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 17, 2024 9:30:53 GMT -5
The SP write-up also thinks his hit tool is potentially above average, so clearly they're not too concerned. Fangraphs gives it a future 40. He just turned 21 and has had impactful wrist and shoulder issues over the past two years. Any player that age is of course going to have some things to work on, and needing to work on hitting breaking pitches is going to be a common critique for guys his age. I'll take that any day over not being able to catch up to a fastball. Besides, while I don't have his numbers against breaking balls in 2022, his numbers overall were outstanding throughout the minors until the shoulder injury. If he was anywhere near as tragic against breaking stuff in 2022 and before the injury in 2023 he must have been Barry Bonds against fastballs. Was he truly outstanding in Hi-A while healthy? 265/379/449 in 116 PA 290/366/524 in 164 PA What does that average out to? 280/370/480? I'm not saying that's not good and I certainly thought he was on track, but he was not tearing up the league, he was not, to me, outstanding as a hi-A hitter. I mean if an 850 OPS is outstanding, what's a 950 OPS? Godlike. Maybe you think it's semantics, but I'm a dial down the hyperbole guy. Good is good and good enough, it doesn't have to be called outstanding. And I think you are overrating how good you have to be against fastballs to have that kind of line because most pitches he's hitting are fastballs. According to FG in 2023 he was something like 50 pts of OPS better than his overall line vs fastballs while being terrible against breaking balls. So maybe in Hi-A he hit 850 overall and 900 v fastballs and 600 v breaking balls? The reason it is getting mentioned by disinterested national observers and to their credit the SP duo is that it's a big discrepancy and ought to be concerning. Yes, a ~135 wRC+ in A+ ball for a guy who everyone (except for Fangraphs) expects to be a solid defensive SS who was also young for the level is outstanding. There is a reason nearly every list still has him as a top 30-35 prospect in baseball, with many rankings in the teens and one in the top 10, despite a season marred by injury and less success against breaking balls. That bat/glove combo is not common. Again, there is no point in reading into his numbers in 2023 given that he was playing hurt for most of the year. I also don't know why you're speculating that ~83% of his ABs ended with fastballs in high A, especially given that he supposedly can't hit breaking balls. If his overall OPS is ~.850 and it's ~.600 against breaking balls, his OPS against fastballs in going to be a ton higher than .900. More food for thought is that fastballs are more likely to be thrown when the batter is ahead in the count, so even a guy who has no weakness against breaking balls will probably have better splits against fastballs. This is doubly so if they're not weak to high fastballs when they get behind in the count. Edit: chaimtime nailed it
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 17, 2024 11:20:45 GMT -5
Was he truly outstanding in Hi-A while healthy? 265/379/449 in 116 PA 290/366/524 in 164 PA What does that average out to? 280/370/480? I'm not saying that's not good and I certainly thought he was on track, but he was not tearing up the league, he was not, to me, outstanding as a hi-A hitter. I mean if an 850 OPS is outstanding, what's a 950 OPS? Godlike. Maybe you think it's semantics, but I'm a dial down the hyperbole guy. Good is good and good enough, it doesn't have to be called outstanding. And I think you are overrating how good you have to be against fastballs to have that kind of line because most pitches he's hitting are fastballs. According to FG in 2023 he was something like 50 pts of OPS better than his overall line vs fastballs while being terrible against breaking balls. So maybe in Hi-A he hit 850 overall and 900 v fastballs and 600 v breaking balls? The reason it is getting mentioned by disinterested national observers and to their credit the SP duo is that it's a big discrepancy and ought to be concerning. Putting up a 139 wRC+ at age 20 in Hi-A is excellent no matter what position you play, but it’s especially good for a shortstop. Obviously it’s not apples to apples, but a big league shortstop who hits that well while playing average defense is a 5-6 WAR player. The numbers against offspeed/breaking stuff can’t be hand waived away, especially as he starts to face more advanced pitching, but he just turned 21 in December. He’s got time to make those adjustments. And for what it’s worth, MLB batters hit for a .653 OPS/.283 wOBA against breaking balls, a .648 OPS/.282 wOBA against offspeed pitches, and a .797 OPS/.346 wOBA against fastballs. Virtually everyone does most of their damage against fastballs. I don't believe that wRC+ is park adjusted for minor leaguers. I never look at it. The arguments that start with a minor leaguers wRC+ don't make much of an impression on me. But thanks a lot for the MLB breaking ball splits for fastball and breaking balls. Of course and MLB hitter will do most of his damage on fastballs which is also part of the reason that MLB pitchers are throwing them less and less. But it's great context to see that MLB hitters have a gap of about 150 OPS points. Mayer's differential was 325 OPS points. He is currently more than twice as bad against breaking balls than the average MLB hitter. I'm not sure you can understand Mayer's development pathway without mentioning that and being concerned.
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Post by trajanacc on Feb 17, 2024 11:41:57 GMT -5
considering the wide variance and inherent unpredictability of prospect outcomes, I am surprised at how little noise there is when comparing these rankings. Makes me think there's a lot of groupthink going on here.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 17, 2024 12:20:30 GMT -5
Wouldn’t wRC+ not being park adjusted actually make Mayer’s stats in Salem more impressive? I thought Salem was very pitcher friendly.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 17, 2024 12:25:02 GMT -5
Wouldn’t wRC+ not being park adjusted actually make Mayer’s stats in Salem more impressive? I thought Salem was very pitcher friendly. It is
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 17, 2024 12:46:43 GMT -5
Wouldn’t wRC+ not being park adjusted actually make Mayer’s stats in Salem more impressive? I thought Salem was very pitcher friendly. Compared to whom? That's the problem. I love FanGraphs, but the fact that they publish a "+" stat that isn't fully park and league adjusted is a real black mark imo.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 17, 2024 12:53:17 GMT -5
Wouldn’t wRC+ not being park adjusted actually make Mayer’s stats in Salem more impressive? I thought Salem was very pitcher friendly. Compared to whom? That's the problem. I love FanGraphs, but the fact that they publish a "+" stat that isn't fully park and league adjusted is a real black mark imo. It is league adjusted. And I don’t know what you mean by compared to whom? Salem is pitcher friendly compared to other ballparks. Mayers stats are high relative to the league, and in theory would be higher if you took into account the pitcher friendly park.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 17, 2024 14:04:24 GMT -5
Compared to whom? That's the problem. I love FanGraphs, but the fact that they publish a "+" stat that isn't fully park and league adjusted is a real black mark imo. It is league adjusted. And I don’t know what you mean by compared to whom? Salem is pitcher friendly compared to other ballparks. Mayers stats are high relative to the league, and in theory would be higher if you took into account the pitcher friendly park. Greenville is the High-A affiliate now. I don’t know if it’s a good or bad hitters park compared to the rest of the league, so hard to say if Mayer is helped or hurt by that. Either way, it’s not like OPS is adjusted for anything at all so I’m not sure why OPS would be valid while wRC+ isn’t.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 17, 2024 16:23:34 GMT -5
It is league adjusted. And I don’t know what you mean by compared to whom? Salem is pitcher friendly compared to other ballparks. Mayers stats are high relative to the league, and in theory would be higher if you took into account the pitcher friendly park. Greenville is the High-A affiliate now. I don’t know if it’s a good or bad hitters park compared to the rest of the league, so hard to say if Mayer is helped or hurt by that. Either way, it’s not like OPS is adjusted for anything at all so I’m not sure why OPS would be valid while wRC+ isn’t. Was just going to post that all the Salem references are irrelevant. Thanks for that, but not sure why you felt the need to pivot to the idea espoused by nobody in this that OPS is "valid" whatever you mean by that. The only point I've made about supposedly all inclusive hitting metrics is that everybody points to wRC+ because its easily accessed on FG and looks good with that "+", but it decidedly is not. In a vacuum it's marginally better than OPS, but in effect its WORSE because people unfortunately use wRC+ as if it is a much better stat for minor leaguers than it is. And, btw, I'm not sure where the idea that Salem is a tough place to hit comes from. According to these park factors from BA it is quite run friendly and easily the best hitter park in the system. BA 2023 Park FactorsWOO - 103 POR - 105 GREEN - 109 SALEM - 118 And when I say that wRC+ is worthless for comparison it means something like this: Who has been more productive - your favorite Sox prospect who puts up a 130 wRC+ for a 109 PF Carolina League Hi-A team or some other prospect who puts up a 120 wRC+ in a 95 PF park for a Midwest League Hi-A team? Right now most people will go to FG and say obviously the Sox prospect because his wRC+ is higher.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 17, 2024 17:08:20 GMT -5
Greenville is the High-A affiliate now. I don’t know if it’s a good or bad hitters park compared to the rest of the league, so hard to say if Mayer is helped or hurt by that. Either way, it’s not like OPS is adjusted for anything at all so I’m not sure why OPS would be valid while wRC+ isn’t. Was just going to post that all the Salem references are irrelevant. Thanks for that, but not sure why you felt the need to pivot to the idea espoused by nobody in this that OPS is "valid" whatever you mean by that. The only point I've made about supposedly all inclusive hitting metrics is that everybody points to wRC+ because it’s easily accessed on FG and looks good with that "+", but it decidedly is not. In a vacuum it's marginally better than OPS, but in effect its WORSE because people unfortunately use wRC+ as if it is a much better stat for minor leaguers than it is. And, btw, I'm not sure where the idea that Salem is a tough place to hit comes from. According to these park factors from BA it is quite run friendly and easily the best hitter park in the system. BA 2023 Park FactorsWOO - 103 POR - 105 GREEN - 109 SALEM - 118 And when I say that wRC+ is worthless for comparison it means something like this: Who has been more productive - your favorite Sox prospect who puts up a 130 wRC+ for a 109 PF Carolina League Hi-A team or some other prospect who puts up a 120 wRC+ in a 95 PF park for a Midwest League Hi-A team? Right now most people will go to FG and say obviously the Sox prospect because his wRC+ is higher. This all started with you saying an .850 OPS wasn’t good enough to be considered “outstanding.” I pointed out that his league-adjusted line was elite for a shortstop. Instead of conceding the point that an .850 OPS is indeed very good for a shortstop who is three years younger than the average player in the league, you said wRC+ isn’t convincing because it’s not park adjusted. So that’s what I meant by OPS being valid but wRC+ not. As for your other point, wRC+ is still league-adjusted in the minors. There are only 12 teams in the Sally and the Midwest League, so I find it unlikely that the park effects are super distortionary. I don’t think anyone thinks minor league wRC+ is more insightful than how hard a guy hits the ball and how often he swings and misses at pitches in the zone, but I don’t really see any reason to question it as shorthand for overall production.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 17, 2024 20:04:23 GMT -5
Sandlin likely would have moved the team rankings up a notch or two considering the general reasoning of the rankers.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 19, 2024 12:24:39 GMT -5
Sandlin likely would have moved the team rankings up a notch or two considering the general reasoning of the rankers. You think BA would move their org rankings a couple slots based on the Sox acquiring the guy they think is the Royals 19th best prospect? Let's just say the whole org needle moving impact of Nick Sandlin might be a lot less than you think...
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 19, 2024 12:27:48 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 19, 2024 12:40:49 GMT -5
Cespedes and monegro are my two to watch for this year. Hopefully I'm right and cespedes gets in the top 5 and monegro in the top 10 in the sox system.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 20, 2024 15:32:50 GMT -5
The magic ZIPS computer system from Fangraphs' Dan Szymborski loooooves itself some Ceddy Rafaela: blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2024-top-100-prospects/ZIPS has him as the 26th best MLB prospect, behind Marcelo (18), Roman (22), and ahead of Teel (66), Yorke (76).
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Post by bishop on Feb 20, 2024 20:05:12 GMT -5
The magic ZIPS computer system from Fangraphs' Dan Szymborski loooooves itself some Ceddy Rafaela: blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2024-top-100-prospects/ZIPS has him as the 26th best MLB prospect, behind Marcelo (18), Roman (22), and ahead of Teel (66), Yorke (76). Yeah it loves his defense (who doesn't!), but it also doesn't see a huge contact issue and buys his Minor League stats are who he is to an extent and the bottom won't fall out. Minor league K rate was around 21%, brief MLB time it was 31%, stat based projection systems have it around 23-24% which I'd sign up for right now. ZiPS does believe in his power a little more than some others, with an OPS+ of 92 vs low-mid 80's, we'll see. I was happier Mayer still showed up top 20 in the stats based system after all the worry about his shoulder injury hurting his AA stats or the defensive questions FG had in their top 100. There is some real concern about ability to hit breaking balls (and one commenter who seems smart noted the system may be favoring age advanced shortstop's), but even without giving him any pass for being hurt his full year stats indicate a great prospect. Albeit very understandable why he left a bad taste in some evaluators mouths as a "top 10" guy after he put up that Portland stint.
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