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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 29, 2023 18:22:42 GMT -5
I don't think a pitcher for 19 mil and short term should preclude them from trying to pivot to Montgomery or Snell either. Especially when you look at this deal compared to what the projections on Giolito to start the offseason. Feel like most said he'd get 4 years and 20 a year. Perhaps he's betting on himself and took less though. I agree it doesn't preclude a Montgomery or Snell signing. I'd just rather they sign Imanaga. That's fair, I think im kinda soured on imanaga but as I like to say it depends on the deal. I don't want to give Imanaga 5/100.
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Post by wamderingdude on Dec 29, 2023 18:23:14 GMT -5
Still think they need one more pitcher better than giolito but i like the signing. I think i would classify imanaga/montgomery/snell or a trade for a miami or seattle arm as better. One of those, a middle of the order right handed bat and short term 2b and barring a surprising trade they would be done and that’s fine.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 29, 2023 18:24:18 GMT -5
I really dislike that third year option in principle. If he's having a nice season, then 140 innings means he gets paid $1.5 million to become a free agent, and 139 innings means he plays on an under market one year contract. Could create a toxic situation.
Realistically, if he opts in to year two he probably played pretty bad and/or had arm surgery, so he's probably not hitting 140 innings. Maybe he has TJS in 2024 and we pay for the 2026 option, but even then $14 million isn't likely to be seen as much of a bargain.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 29, 2023 18:24:49 GMT -5
But he also is prone to giving up bombs. Pitching in the AL East isn't going to help that. If he keeps them at his White Sox levels he can still be a very good pitcher If he keeps them at the levels they were at when his life fell apart (traded, divorced, waived) then he’s not a big league starting pitcher. But those are such enormous rates of HR that it can’t possibly be sustainable, especially with somebody we’ve seen have so much success at this level I don't think he's going to allow 41 bombs again because as you mentioned he went through a divorce and stuff. But he also wasn't great the year before. I mean whatever I hope it works out I'm not jumping for joy.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Dec 29, 2023 18:27:14 GMT -5
For anyone interested.
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Post by asm19 on Dec 29, 2023 18:29:02 GMT -5
I’m been very dismissive of Giolito because he’s been mediocre for two years - with historically horrific HR rates last year - and would prefer someone you don’t have to “fix,” but that’s not an unreasonable deal.
Hopefully the Green Monster is high enough…
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Post by levi on Dec 29, 2023 18:30:15 GMT -5
Giolito seems like the kind of guy Breslow/Bailey would want to throw a cutter in an attempt to make his fastball less hittable (-8 RV in 2023).
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 29, 2023 18:31:07 GMT -5
Giolito ZiPS WAR projection is 2.5 which is more than 10% higher than the next highest guy on the Red Sox (Bello)
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Post by yuchangclan on Dec 29, 2023 18:31:14 GMT -5
If he keeps them at his White Sox levels he can still be a very good pitcher If he keeps them at the levels they were at when his life fell apart (traded, divorced, waived) then he’s not a big league starting pitcher. But those are such enormous rates of HR that it can’t possibly be sustainable, especially with somebody we’ve seen have so much success at this level I don't think he's going to allow 41 bombs again because as you mentioned he went through a divorce and stuff. But he also wasn't great the year before. I mean whatever I hope it works out I'm not jumping for joy. Nor should you be. But it’s short-term and reasonable money. This isn’t a contract that we will dwell on years from now even if he’s lousy.
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 29, 2023 18:31:59 GMT -5
So basically if he has a above avg year he will opt out and leave like Turner. Idk im really not a fan of deals like this. We get no value were basiclly paying him to not pitch great and opt in. You need to ink deals that you can benefit from. Either way im happy we got someone at this point.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 29, 2023 18:39:28 GMT -5
So basically if he has a above avg year he will opt out and leave like Turner. Idk im really not a fan of deals like this. We get no value were basiclly paying him to not pitch great and opt in. You need to ink deals that you can benefit from. Either way im happy we got someone at this point. If he has an above average year and leaves he gets the QO and they get an extra pick. It's not a slam dunk deal but it's a good one in my eyes. They definitely need to keep going tho
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Post by bluechip on Dec 29, 2023 18:40:26 GMT -5
This is an interesting contract. If he gets injured and is going to miss all or a chunk of 2025, and therefore elects to not opt out, he is also giving the Red Sox the option to keep him for 2026 at a discount rate. Basically it protects both sides in case of an injury that impacts his 2025. Seems like pretty good hedging in both sides.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2023 18:45:56 GMT -5
It's kind of like the Sox signed an innings guy like Pivetta, which they need. The question, like we ask of Pivetta is which version do we get, the guy you think might be all star worthy or the guy who is a torch?
They need innings so from that standpoint Giolito can help. Coming off a 4.9 ERA over the past 2 seasons it is fair to question if they're getting quality if not quantity.
Yeah, way too many homers but hes always been homer prone.
But what's interesting with him in the successful seasons he's had his hit to innings pitch ratio has been crazy low.
The last two seasons the hits against him rose dramatically which meant more HRs with men on base which is why his ERA probably jumped 1.25 runs.
Fenway doesnt suppress batting average so I dont know if Giolito can bounce back.
But at this point, its worth a shot. If it's just him and Paxton or even him, Paxton, and Yariel Rodriguez I'll be less than impressed. If they pair Giolito with Montgomery I'd be impressed. Even if it's Imanaga I'd be alright with it, especially if Paxton is brought back too.
But I don't want Giolito to be the best quality and quantity guy they get. I would like to see them bring in a better pitcher who can also toss 175 innings.
But for the short term deal, even if it turns out to be 1 good year and good bye it's worth the gamble. Hope they know how to improve him because when he first came up he was highly regarded and rightfully so.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 29, 2023 18:58:15 GMT -5
I’m been very dismissive of Giolito because he’s been mediocre for two years - with historically horrific HR rates last year - and would prefer someone you don’t have to “fix,” but that’s not an unreasonable deal. Hopefully the Green Monster is high enough… As mediocre as he's been the last two years, fangraphs still has him worth $22.5 million. And he's been better than that if you trust xERA more than FIP.
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Post by jimmydugan on Dec 29, 2023 19:02:25 GMT -5
I’m been very dismissive of Giolito because he’s been mediocre for two years - with historically horrific HR rates last year - and would prefer someone you don’t have to “fix,” but that’s not an unreasonable deal. Hopefully the Green Monster is high enough… HRs per baseball savant 2023: 41 vs 29 expected at Fenway Career: 166 vs 123 expected at Fenway I think the Sox are expecting a lot of his HRs vs. LHB to be long outs at Fenway
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Dec 29, 2023 19:02:56 GMT -5
Credit to RedSoxStats on this; he raises a good point. Assuming there's another SP coming, we're paying $18mil to upgrade from a 2 WAR pitcher (Kutter/Pivetta) to a 2.5 WAR pitcher (Giolito projections). To me, that means 1.) Breslow is dumb, 2.) Kutter or Pivetta is being traded, or 3.) there is no other SP coming to Boston. I'd wager on #2, but #3 is also increasingly likely, the more I think about it.
Hmmm.
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Post by asm19 on Dec 29, 2023 19:06:13 GMT -5
What is the best hairstyle to hide sticky stuff in so Giolito can get his spin rate back up? Casas started the cornrows - maybe that can be a thing!
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 29, 2023 19:07:08 GMT -5
Credit to RedSoxStats on this; he raises a good point. Assuming there's another SP coming, we're paying $18mil to upgrade from a 2 WAR pitcher (Kutter/Pivetta) to a 2.5 WAR pitcher (Giolito projections). To me, that means 1.) Breslow is dumb, 2.) Kutter or Pivetta is being traded, or 3.) there is no other SP coming to Boston. I'd wager on #2, but #3 is also increasingly likely, the more I think about it. Hmmm. Uh or option 4 pitchers get hurt a lot so having extra options who "project" for 2 WAR is a good problem to have?
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Dec 29, 2023 19:10:55 GMT -5
I betcha Kutter , Duran and someone else goes for Luzardo
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Post by incandenza on Dec 29, 2023 19:11:22 GMT -5
Credit to RedSoxStats on this; he raises a good point. Assuming there's another SP coming, we're paying $18mil to upgrade from a 2 WAR pitcher (Kutter/Pivetta) to a 2.5 WAR pitcher (Giolito projections). To me, that means 1.) Breslow is dumb, 2.) Kutter or Pivetta is being traded, or 3.) there is no other SP coming to Boston. I'd wager on #2, but #3 is also increasingly likely, the more I think about it. Hmmm. I don't buy the premise.
First off, this is sort of the structural problem the Red Sox have as a result of already having a 2 WAR player at like every roster spot: it is hard to make big upgrades. But they should still make the upgrades; gotta spend their money on something.
Second, it's not really just taking Kutter/Pivetta's innings and giving them to Giolito. It means that Kutter/Pivetta move to the bullpen, which improves the bullpen; and more importantly, it means that when a couple of guys get hurt, the replacements are Kutter/Pivetta rather than Cooper Criswell or Matt Dermody or whomever.
ADD: ematz said it a lot more succintly.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 29, 2023 19:11:38 GMT -5
Credit to RedSoxStats on this; he raises a good point. Assuming there's another SP coming, we're paying $18mil to upgrade from a 2 WAR pitcher (Kutter/Pivetta) to a 2.5 WAR pitcher (Giolito projections). To me, that means 1.) Breslow is dumb, 2.) Kutter or Pivetta is being traded, or 3.) there is no other SP coming to Boston. I'd wager on #2, but #3 is also increasingly likely, the more I think about it. Hmmm. I'm sorry, but I just don't agree with that assessment. WAR projections aside, the Red Sox got the fourth-fewest innings from their starting pitchers. There are a ton of innings to go around. Moving someone like Crawford or Houck or Whitlock to a swingman role is going to maximize their skills, and chances are there will be plenty of starts to go around. Not so different from those years when Tim Wakefield was nominally the sixth starter and then ended up in the top two on the team in innings. You're not upgrading from Crawford, you're upgrading from "Who the hell is going to pitch those innings." EDIT: Incandenza getting in before me by seconds. Seconds!
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Dec 29, 2023 19:12:17 GMT -5
Credit to RedSoxStats on this; he raises a good point. Assuming there's another SP coming, we're paying $18mil to upgrade from a 2 WAR pitcher (Kutter/Pivetta) to a 2.5 WAR pitcher (Giolito projections). To me, that means 1.) Breslow is dumb, 2.) Kutter or Pivetta is being traded, or 3.) there is no other SP coming to Boston. I'd wager on #2, but #3 is also increasingly likely, the more I think about it. Hmmm. Uh or option 4 pitchers get hurt a lot so having extra options who "project" for 2 WAR is a good problem to have? Sure, but idk if I’d spend the money this way to maximize resources. I’ll check back in at the end of the offseason once I see the whole vision.
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Post by manfred on Dec 29, 2023 19:12:21 GMT -5
Giolito was at 2.8 bWAR through 21 starts last year. He was epically bad for his last 12 starts. If they could even get someone between, good. If he could be the guy he was for 2/3 of the year, great.
If they sign one more good starter and Teoscar, it feels like one can’t say Breslow didn’t TCB.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 29, 2023 19:12:24 GMT -5
What is the best hairstyle to hide sticky stuff in so Giolito can get his spin rate back up? Casas started the cornrows - maybe that can be a thing! Under the tongue. It’s an acquired taste though
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 29, 2023 19:12:27 GMT -5
Time to revive a Burns trade. Pivetta at minimum wage is a great starting point. Caveat though, only go significant trade chips if they can sign him to a long term deal, similar to the Dodgers and Glasnow,
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