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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2023 19:15:42 GMT -5
Credit to RedSoxStats on this; he raises a good point. Assuming there's another SP coming, we're paying $18mil to upgrade from a 2 WAR pitcher (Kutter/Pivetta) to a 2.5 WAR pitcher (Giolito projections). To me, that means 1.) Breslow is dumb, 2.) Kutter or Pivetta is being traded, or 3.) there is no other SP coming to Boston. I'd wager on #2, but #3 is also increasingly likely, the more I think about it. Hmmm. Uh or option 4 pitchers get hurt a lot so having extra options who "project" for 2 WAR is a good problem to have? Sometimes it's just nice to have a guy who can start 30 times per year and soak up 170 innings instead of the daily battle of trying to piece together a bullpen game or have starters that kind of cap out around 125 - 140 innings. Stability is a valuable thing.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Dec 29, 2023 19:16:08 GMT -5
What is the best hairstyle to hide sticky stuff in so Giolito can get his spin rate back up? Casas started the cornrows - maybe that can be a thing! Am I reading this chart correctly insofar as that he’s a better pitcher when his spin rate is less spinny? Edit: unless he just shifted up when everyone else stopped using the stuff
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Post by asm19 on Dec 29, 2023 19:19:33 GMT -5
What is the best hairstyle to hide sticky stuff in so Giolito can get his spin rate back up? Casas started the cornrows - maybe that can be a thing! Am I reading this chart correctly insofar as that he’s a better pitcher when his spin rate is less spinny? Edit: unless he just shifted up when everyone else stopped using the stuff /photo/1
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Post by incandenza on Dec 29, 2023 19:20:37 GMT -5
What is the best hairstyle to hide sticky stuff in so Giolito can get his spin rate back up? Casas started the cornrows - maybe that can be a thing! Am I reading this chart correctly insofar as that he’s a better pitcher when his spin rate is less spinny? Edit: unless he just shifted up when everyone else stopped using the stuff That's how I read it at first but I think the numbers in the spin rate column are percentile, not rank.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 29, 2023 19:22:19 GMT -5
Uh or option 4 pitchers get hurt a lot so having extra options who "project" for 2 WAR is a good problem to have? Sometimes it's just nice to have a guy who can start 30 times per year and soak up 170 innings instead of the daily battle of trying to piece together a bullpen game or have starters that kind of cap out around 125 - 140 innings. Stability is a valuable thing. Yeah I feel like people forget Cora was “forced” into pitching Barraclough in what was perhaps the highest leverage point for the season because our starters didn’t eat innings all year and our entire bullpen was burnt. Having somebody that can log 180 innings of even 4.80 ball has value. Hell that was most of Porcello’s career was being a 4’s guy that ate innings
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Post by bluechip on Dec 29, 2023 19:23:59 GMT -5
Sometimes it's just nice to have a guy who can start 30 times per year and soak up 170 innings instead of the daily battle of trying to piece together a bullpen game or have starters that kind of cap out around 125 - 140 innings. Stability is a valuable thing. Yeah I feel like people forget Cora was “forced” into pitching Barraclough in what was perhaps the highest leverage point for the season because our starters didn’t eat innings all year and our entire bullpen was burnt. Having somebody that can log 180 innings of even 4.80 ball has value. Hell that was most of Porcello’s career was being a 4’s guy that ate innings Echoing what everyone else has said, but he makes Cora’s job less complicated. Give him the ball every fifth day and then don’t make a decision until the 7th inning.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Dec 29, 2023 19:26:14 GMT -5
I concede that this signing doesn’t and shouldn’t mean that Kutter or Pivetta will be traded. I’m just looking at the bullpen and seeing:
Pivetta or Crawford (assuming one more good SP is added) Houck Bernardino Schreiber Winckowski Whitlock Martin Jansen
Which looks mighty crowded. It’s a good problem to have, but, again, it makes me question overall allocation of resources. Perhaps I should have instead looked at whether this signing makes a Jansen trade more likely.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 29, 2023 19:27:09 GMT -5
I haven't seen anyone do the obvious this is the rotation right now. So let's say no more moves are made and they got giolito now.
Bello/Sale/Giolito/Crawford/Pivetta
With ya Houck and Whitlock ready to go. That's the not worst rotation I've seen I guess I'd say.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2023 19:33:27 GMT -5
I concede that this signing doesn’t and shouldn’t mean that Kutter or Pivetta will be traded. I’m just looking at the bullpen and seeing: Pivetta or Crawford (assuming one more good SP is added) Houck Bernardino Schreiber Winckowski Whitlock Martin Jansen Which looks mighty crowded. It’s a good problem to have, but, again, it makes me question overall allocation of resources. Perhaps I should have instead looked at whether this signing makes a Jansen trade more likely. Pitchers do get hurt or underperform. I wouldn't worry about too much pitching for roster spots. Those things work themselves out.
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Post by wamderingdude on Dec 29, 2023 19:37:48 GMT -5
Now that we have signed the innings eater for the rotation, i am once again asking for the red sox to trade for Edward Cabrera.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 29, 2023 19:39:53 GMT -5
What is the best hairstyle to hide sticky stuff in so Giolito can get his spin rate back up? Casas started the cornrows - maybe that can be a thing! One thing I like about this signing is he is healthy and a "horse". We certainly can use him pitching 175 innings. I love the signing. He is still young and HAS been dominate in the bug leagues. Yes, it would be nice to add another starter, but I'm looking forward to seeing what Bailey can do with him. I like it a lot!
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Dec 29, 2023 19:40:17 GMT -5
I concede that this signing doesn’t and shouldn’t mean that Kutter or Pivetta will be traded. I’m just looking at the bullpen and seeing: Pivetta or Crawford (assuming one more good SP is added) Houck Bernardino Schreiber Winckowski Whitlock Martin Jansen Which looks mighty crowded. It’s a good problem to have, but, again, it makes me question overall allocation of resources. Perhaps I should have instead looked at whether this signing makes a Jansen trade more likely. Pitchers do get hurt or underperform. I wouldn't worry about too much pitching for roster spots. Those things work themselves out. Absolutely, and so do position players. I think we’re far more comfortable with our offense as it currently stands than we ought to be, and it might be smart to leverage a position of relative strength/depth to shore up some question marks in the lineup or on the bench. If not, I like our bullpen just fine. Just musing.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Dec 29, 2023 19:40:38 GMT -5
I like both Houck and Whitlock in multi-inning roles. This allows them to do just that. I think Crawford turned a corner last year and really look forward to seeing what he can do this year. I will say that Giolito and Crawford have very similar arm actions. Maybe they can feed off of each other. Pitching is fickle. Bernardino was a great story last year and so was Schreiber the year before. My hope is that with more reliable innings from the rotation, we don't get into a situation where we are wearing our guys out. I feel like Schreiber took a step back last year with his health b/c of how hard we rode him the previous season. I swear it seems like he was always out there in big situations late in the game. My point is that we can't count on Bernardino being the same guy he was. Martin is due for some regression as well. I just don't know have he can do what he did in back to back seasons. Is Sale going to be healthy? I still feel like we need one more big arm in the rotation that's going to give you quality innings. I like Montgomery's overall body of work in his career to that on Snell. With Montgomery you'll get innings, and those innings will play big in September when you can run a quality arm out of the bullpen without fear of it falling off. I feel like we need to plan to go into the season with at least 6 big league starters. You can never have too much pitching period.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 29, 2023 19:43:14 GMT -5
Now that we have signed the innings eater for the rotation, i am once again asking for the red sox to trade for Edward Cabrera. I won't be surprised if Breslow is already thinking TRADE. We have extra outfielders. We have some young arms. Other stuff will start to happen!
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Post by wamderingdude on Dec 29, 2023 19:49:48 GMT -5
Now that we have signed the innings eater for the rotation, i am once again asking for the red sox to trade for Edward Cabrera. I won't be surprised if Breslow is already thinking TRADE. We have extra outfielders. We have some young arms. Other stuff will start to happen! i think this is especially true if the teoscar signing happens.
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Post by asm19 on Dec 29, 2023 19:52:36 GMT -5
I won't be surprised if Breslow is already thinking TRADE. We have extra outfielders. We have some young arms. Other stuff will start to happen! i think this is especially true if the teoscar signing happens. “Take your pick of Crawford/Houck/Pivetta & Duran/Abreu/Rafaela + Propsect X & Y for ______”?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 29, 2023 20:02:27 GMT -5
I would be happy with a trade but I really don’t want to see Crawford in it. Duran and Pivetta sure
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 29, 2023 20:04:34 GMT -5
I like both Houck and Whitlock in multi-inning roles. This allows them to do just that. I think Crawford turned a corner last year and really look forward to seeing what he can do this year. I will say that Giolito and Crawford have very similar arm actions. Maybe they can feed off of each other. Pitching is fickle. Bernardino was a great story last year and so was Schreiber the year before. My hope is that with more reliable innings from the rotation, we don't get into a situation where we are wearing our guys out. I feel like Schreiber took a step back last year with his health b/c of how hard we rode him the previous season. I swear it seems like he was always out there in big situations late in the game. My point is that we can't count on Bernardino being the same guy he was. Martin is due for some regression as well. I just don't know have he can do what he did in back to back seasons. Is Sale going to be healthy? I still feel like we need one more big arm in the rotation that's going to give you quality innings. I like Montgomery's overall body of work in his career to that on Snell. With Montgomery you'll get innings, and those innings will play big in September when you can run a quality arm out of the bullpen without fear of it falling off. I feel like we need to plan to go into the season with at least 6 big league starters. You can never have too much pitching period. Same page. I’ve had Monty and Giolito circled all along, for innings, plus Stephenson and maybe even Hader to share the late inning load with Jansen/Martin. I love Schreiber and Bernardino but like you say, let’s not count on them to replicate their breakouts every year. Edit: I'm also right there with you on Crawford. He's a starter, not a swingman, and I can't wait to see him really break out in 2024.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 29, 2023 20:24:10 GMT -5
Long overdue I wanted this guy to fall to us in the draft back in the day better late than never I guess.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Dec 29, 2023 20:30:51 GMT -5
At a minimum there is sign of life in the FO and a chance to evaluate Breslow/Bailey on the reclamation front
Give me Snell, Teo, and Merrifield and let’s rock.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 29, 2023 20:32:28 GMT -5
Credit to RedSoxStats on this; he raises a good point. Assuming there's another SP coming, we're paying $18mil to upgrade from a 2 WAR pitcher (Kutter/Pivetta) to a 2.5 WAR pitcher (Giolito projections). To me, that means 1.) Breslow is dumb, 2.) Kutter or Pivetta is being traded, or 3.) there is no other SP coming to Boston. I'd wager on #2, but #3 is also increasingly likely, the more I think about it. Hmmm. Or Breslow isn't making roster decisions based on ZiPS projections? Lol
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Post by levi on Dec 29, 2023 20:35:33 GMT -5
Giolito seems like the kind of guy Breslow/Bailey would want to throw a cutter in an attempt to make his fastball less hittable (-8 RV in 2023).
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 29, 2023 21:08:03 GMT -5
Just as an aside, you know who also need a short-term innings eater wicked bad? The MFYs.
You know who didn't get Giolito? That's right, the MFYs.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 29, 2023 21:12:20 GMT -5
This is the type of contract I like, if they are going to act like a big market team and spend money, but if not… I’m not sure I see the point. Sure there’s upside but he has real downside and is his likely “solid” outcome better than Pivetta or Houck?
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 29, 2023 22:06:17 GMT -5
Hidden benefit is it takes the Sox out of the "desperate" market as they approach other FA pitchers. That, in itself, may reduce their price by $20 mil, or in trade capital.
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