SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox sign Lucas Giolito 2/38.5
|
Post by oldfaithful2019 on Dec 29, 2023 22:12:12 GMT -5
Hidden benefit is it takes the Sox out of the "desperate" market as they approach other FA pitchers. That, in itself, may reduce their price by $20 mil, or in trade capital. Excellent point !
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Dec 29, 2023 22:53:31 GMT -5
This is the type of contract I like, if they are going to act like a big market team and spend money, but if not… I’m not sure I see the point. Sure there’s upside but he has real downside and is his likely “solid” outcome better than Pivetta or Houck? I think there’s a pretty solid chance Pivetta in particular is better next year. But the “solid” outcome is definitely better—he throws enough innings and misses enough bats that he’s probably gonna be at least okay, with upside for more. If whatever plan they have for him works out, he could be a lot more than okay.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 29, 2023 23:23:19 GMT -5
Hidden benefit is it takes the Sox out of the "desperate" market as they approach other FA pitchers. That, in itself, may reduce their price by $20 mil, or in trade capital. I found myself thinking the same thought, that this may reset the market perception to something a little less cockeyed. It'd been sort of hijacked thanks to hoarding and probably exorbitant demands. This contract seems back in the ballpark so to speak.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,029
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Dec 29, 2023 23:32:02 GMT -5
Hidden benefit is it takes the Sox out of the "desperate" market as they approach other FA pitchers. That, in itself, may reduce their price by $20 mil, or in trade capital. Important given the news from Speier that they’re looking into moving one of the young OF Seems like Giolito may not be the only move they’re looking at to improve the staff
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 29, 2023 23:47:47 GMT -5
Posted this a few weeks ago but seemsmore relevant now. Hopefully the Red Sox have identified something which will lead to him missing more bats while pitching in the zone. Giolito certainly looks like a different pitcher in 2022-2023 as opposed to 2019-2021 by several underlying statistics. 2019-2021 | 2022-2023: K/9 - 11.07 | 9.91 BB/9 - 2.88 | 3.49 HR/FB - 13.7% | 16.3% EV(mph) - 87.8 | 89.0 (7% | 9.3% barrel%) HH% - 34.4% | 40.3% (PI)Fastball - 49.4%, 94.2mph, +0.99 | 44.6%, 93mph, -0.61 (frequency, velocity, effectiveness) (PI)Changeup - 29.8%, 81.6mph, +1.56 | 27%, 81.1mph, -0.17 (PI)Slider - 17.6%, 85.2mph, +0.72 | 26.1%, 84.3mph, -0.50 Zone Contact - 77.3% | 85.2% So he has lost velocity, is throwing his fastball less and his slider more, all 3 of his primary pitches are less effective, he's giving up more walks (likely due to increased slider usage), recording fewer strikeouts, getting hit far more frequently in the zone and getting hit harder overall. I think it's safe to say that it isn't a homerun problem or bad luck, he's just getting hammered when pitching in the zone. The loss of velocity is a likely culprit, but even so, the loss of effectiveness from all of his primary pitches seem extreme and there may be more going on. (I excluded data which has been fairly consistent or appeared to have random noise) Add: the increase in slider usage began in 2021 and has trended upwards in each of 2022 and 2023.
|
|
|
Post by vokuhila on Dec 30, 2023 4:25:13 GMT -5
The "elephant in the room" explanation to those numbers is: sticky stuff. stats posted a graph of his declining spin rate since the time of the ban.
I don't think the 2020 and 2021 seasons are a realistic goal for Giolito at this point, but then again 2023 clearly was a down year (lots of stuff going on for him). His 2022 looks like a reasonable goal and I'm good with that. 170IP with a low-four-ish ERA would be nice and I think that's realistic.
170 IP ranking on the team: 2021 2nd after Eovaldi (182IP) 2022 2nd after Pivetta (179IP) 2023 1st (Bello 157IP)
SP innings was a CLEAR NEED over the past seasons and there were few options (Montgomery probably being the other one). The need was addressed. That looks to be Breslow's MO by now.
That contract tough...you need a flow chart to do it justice...if this is a taste of what's to come under Breslow...good thing we have lawyers around...
If Giolito hits 170IP/low 4ERA he is going to have a tough descision after the first year. If he opts out, the RedSox will give him a QO, that would hamper his FA negotiations. So he must be sure to get a decent multi year deal. QO will probably be the same value as his contract + buyout. He may even opt-out and ACCEPT the QO just to get rid of it for the future, but then he might reach free agency a year later if he throws <140IP in 2025. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a decent season and still be with us in 2025.
If Bailey can get Giolito back to his 2022/early 2023 form this should work out very nicely.
All that being said, we need starters that are guaranteed under contract for more than 2024. We may lose Sale, Pivetta and Giolito after 2024. Getting 2 rotation pieces in one offseason is tough, getting three...
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Dec 30, 2023 4:52:12 GMT -5
This is the type of contract I like, if they are going to act like a big market team and spend money, but if not… I’m not sure I see the point. Sure there’s upside but he has real downside and is his likely “solid” outcome better than Pivetta or Houck? Whats the benefit. If he gets rocked we owe him 19 mill next year. If hes good he opts out for a longer deal pressuring us to pay him or let another good pitcher walk. Oh we pick up a draft pick if we Q/O him. Yeah i know this is a prospect site but the odds of that draft pick panning out is...... Fork up the extra 8 mill a year and sign a pitcher whos proved himself in the division. Monty is in his prime. Hes someone whos very fimilar in the divison. Hes had a ton of years under 4 era in this division. Hes figured it out. Next offseason if Giolito pitches well and Sale they both walk. We need to have a plan beyond the 1-2 year deals. We dont attract other free agents by signing short term fixes. We just signed a pitcher for 20 million who hasnt been good for a full year since 2021. 20 million. Why not use that money to sign someone whos proven. You dont sign a wild card to a high AAV prove it short term deal in which he fails hes a 20 million dollar guy again! It seems very desprite. Thats because it is. Signing Monty for even 30 million a year is such a better value. I just dont see how our FO doesnt see that. Monty had 12 starts between 19-20 that his era was over 4. Other than that youre talking about a SP that has a 3.6 career era PITCHING IN OUR DIVISION!!!! That man is an ACE. Thats someone you can bank on. 3.4 ERA since 2021. THATS WHO YOU PAY!!!! Why cant we just overpay an ACE rather then throw 20 million on a guy with a 5.0+ ERA over the last 2 years. Please wake up FO! Ill go as far as saying I would bet Pivetta has a better year. The only reason we shouldnt overpay is a trade for Luzardo. But do you give up prospects for someone whos pitched for the Marlins or do you pay someone whos been in the bright lights. Dominated in the division and a WS champ while keeping ypur prospects because we have the money!!!! If we signed Monty and Hernandez then i would be extremely satisfied. Monty/Bello is elite. Thats what you need. Point Blank Period. This signing reaks of Paxton/Richards but its double the salary.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 30, 2023 7:49:04 GMT -5
The benefit if Giolito is good is less the draft pick and more that the Red Sox get a good pitcher for a year.
Also this doesn’t necessarily preclude Montgomery.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Dec 30, 2023 9:35:25 GMT -5
This is the type of contract I like, if they are going to act like a big market team and spend money, but if not… I’m not sure I see the point. Sure there’s upside but he has real downside and is his likely “solid” outcome better than Pivetta or Houck? Whats the benefit. If he gets rocked we owe him 19 mill next year. If hes good he opts out for a longer deal pressuring us to pay him or let another good pitcher walk. Oh we pick up a draft pick if we Q/O him. Yeah i know this is a prospect site but the odds of that draft pick panning out is...... Fork up the extra 8 mill a year and sign a pitcher whos proved himself in the division. Monty is in his prime. Hes someone whos very fimilar in the divison. Hes had a ton of years under 4 era in this division. Hes figured it out. Next offseason if Giolito pitches well and Sale they both walk. We need to have a plan beyond the 1-2 year deals. We dont attract other free agents by signing short term fixes. We just signed a pitcher for 20 million who hasnt been good for a full year since 2021. 20 million. Why not use that money to sign someone whos proven. You dont sign a wild card to a high AAV prove it short term deal in which he fails hes a 20 million dollar guy again! It seems very desprite. Thats because it is. Signing Monty for even 30 million a year is such a better value. I just dont see how our FO doesnt see that. Monty had 12 starts between 19-20 that his era was over 4. Other than that youre talking about a SP that has a 3.6 career era PITCHING IN OUR DIVISION!!!! That man is an ACE. Thats someone you can bank on. 3.4 ERA since 2021. THATS WHO YOU PAY!!!! Why cant we just overpay an ACE rather then throw 20 million on a guy with a 5.0+ ERA over the last 2 years. Please wake up FO! Ill go as far as saying I would bet Pivetta has a better year. The only reason we shouldnt overpay is a trade for Luzardo. But do you give up prospects for someone whos pitched for the Marlins or do you pay someone whos been in the bright lights. Dominated in the division and a WS champ while keeping ypur prospects because we have the money!!!! If we signed Monty and Hernandez then i would be extremely satisfied. Monty/Bello is elite. Thats what you need. Point Blank Period. This signing reaks of Paxton/Richards but its double the salary. Montgomery is two years older and will likely cost $100 million more. The only season in which he was much better than Giolito was last year, when Giolito fell apart amidst multiple trades and a divorce. The risk here is low; it's a two-year deal and the tax reset last year, so it's just money and especially assuming another SP signing, we probably have the depth to not lose much if Giolito bombs. But meanwhile, Giolito's ceiling is even higher than Montgomery's; he was a legit ace as recently as 2021, and he's only 29. If he kicks butt, the QO will be helpful for re-signing him / insurance if we can't. People are muttering about sticky stuff, and it may have been a factor, but spin rates naturally go up when your fastball velocity goes up. Giolito's fastball velocity dropped 1.3 mph in 2022 and while it rebounded a bit in 2023, it's still about 1 mph below his 2020-2022 baseline. Also, in 2022 hitters actually did worse against his fastball than in 2021 despite the velocity drop; the main issue has been less effective secondaries. In terms of break and velocity the changeup seems similar to what it always has been. The slider had a somewhat different shape last year with less horizontal movement. My best guess is that he sacrificed a bit of control last year to reach back for some of the velocity he lost, and the diminished control was more harmful than the modest increase in velocity, leading to tons of HRs. His K, BB, and HR rates all spiked in the second half. Hopefully we can find a way to unlock his old velocity without upping effort, and if not, focusing on location may still do him a lot of good. Richards (33) was like 6-7 years removed from being a quality SP and he wasn't even bad until the sticky stuff ban, which wasn't really foreseeable. Kluber (37) had a decent 2022, but had declined significantly from his last All Star season in 2018. Both Kluber and Richards had battled a ton of injuries in recent seasons. Giolito is 29 and has been uncommonly durable. He was good as recently as the first half of last year, and he was excellent as recently as 2021. Guys like Richards and Kluber are not good comps. By xERA, even 2022 / early 2023 Giolito wasn't far away from Montgomery. And, unlike Montgomery, Giolito will not be screwed when robo umps are introduced. Look around at the pitching market. Guys like Lugo (3/45) and Wacha (2/32) are getting deals that are pretty close to Giolito's, despite being older with weaker projections and substantially lower ceilings. Let's turn up the optimism dial.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 30, 2023 9:45:09 GMT -5
Hidden benefit is it takes the Sox out of the "desperate" market as they approach other FA pitchers. That, in itself, may reduce their price by $20 mil, or in trade capital. Its why nearly every off season the majority of times teams sign their pawn acquisitions first before moving onto the other targets. It gives some of the perceived leverage back to the clubs.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Dec 30, 2023 10:22:59 GMT -5
The "elephant in the room" explanation to those numbers is: sticky stuff. stats posted a graph of his declining spin rate since the time of the ban. I don't think the 2020 and 2021 seasons are a realistic goal for Giolito at this point, but then again 2023 clearly was a down year (lots of stuff going on for him). His 2022 looks like a reasonable goal and I'm good with that. 170IP with a low-four-ish ERA would be nice and I think that's realistic. 170 IP ranking on the team: 2021 2nd after Eovaldi (182IP) 2022 2nd after Pivetta (179IP) 2023 1st (Bello 157IP) SP innings was a CLEAR NEED over the past seasons and there were few options (Montgomery probably being the other one). The need was addressed. That looks to be Breslow's MO by now. That contract tough...you need a flow chart to do it justice...if this is a taste of what's to come under Breslow...good thing we have lawyers around... If Giolito hits 170IP/low 4ERA he is going to have a tough descision after the first year. If he opts out, the RedSox will give him a QO, that would hamper his FA negotiations. So he must be sure to get a decent multi year deal. QO will probably be the same value as his contract + buyout. He may even opt-out and ACCEPT the QO just to get rid of it for the future, but then he might reach free agency a year later if he throws <140IP in 2025. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a decent season and still be with us in 2025. If Bailey can get Giolito back to his 2022/early 2023 form this should work out very nicely. All that being said, we need starters that are guaranteed under contract for more than 2024. We may lose Sale, Pivetta and Giolito after 2024. Getting 2 rotation pieces in one offseason is tough, getting three... I hope Breslow can extend Pivetta.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Dec 30, 2023 11:07:09 GMT -5
I totally agree with this!
“Montgomery is two years older and will likely cost $100 million more. The only season in which he was much better than Giolito was last year, when Giolito fell apart amidst multiple trades and a divorce. The risk here is low; it's a two-year deal and the tax reset last year, so it's just money and especially assuming another SP signing, we probably have the depth to not lose much if Giolito bombs. But meanwhile, Giolito's ceiling is even higher than Montgomery's; he was a legit ace as recently as 2021, and he's only 29. If he kicks butt, the QO will be helpful for re-signing him / insurance if we can't.“
Dealing with trades and a divorce will certainly affect your performance!
“Giolito is 29 and has been uncommonly durable. He was good as recently as the first half of last year, and he was excellent as recently as 2021. Guys like Richards and Kluber are not good comps.”
Giolito was a legitimate ace, and he has a much higher ceiling compared to Richards and Kluber at the age and time the Red Sox signed them.
“Look around at the pitching market. Guys like Lugo (3/45) and Wacha (2/32) are getting deals that are pretty close to Giolito's, despite being older with weaker projections and substantially lower ceilings.
Let's turn up the optimism dial.”
The money is fair consider Giolito’s ceiling, and I would much rather have him than Wacha and his standard 2 IL visits per year or Lugo and his one year of experience as a MLB starter.
Hernandez for right handed pop, a second starter, and 2B help would go a long way to making 2024 competitive. (I would not call it ‘full throttle’, but these would complete a well thought out and executed offseason considering where the Red Sox currently are. Hopeful Breslow can complete the ‘wish list’ for Red Sox fans).
|
|
|
Post by asm19 on Dec 30, 2023 11:14:51 GMT -5
And, unlike Montgomery, Giolito will not be screwed when robo umps are introduced. Hmm - that’s an interesting point. Gotta wonder how teams are considering an incoming robo ump system as part of evaluations for long term deals for pitchers. Who suffers the most from not being able to steal strikes on the corners (as opposed to those getting whiffs in the zone)?
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,977
|
Post by jimoh on Dec 30, 2023 11:42:25 GMT -5
I totally agree with this! “Montgomery is two years older and will likely cost $100 million more. The only season in which he was much better than Giolito was last year, when Giolito fell apart amidst multiple trades and a divorce. The risk here is low; it's a two-year deal and the tax reset last year, so it's just money and especially assuming another SP signing, we probably have the depth to not lose much if Giolito bombs. But meanwhile, Giolito's ceiling is even higher than Montgomery's; he was a legit ace as recently as 2021, and he's only 29. If he kicks butt, the QO will be helpful for re-signing him / insurance if we can't.“ Dealing with trades and a divorce will certainly affect your performance! [...] Do we know if he's met someone?
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Dec 30, 2023 11:44:05 GMT -5
I totally agree with this! “Montgomery is two years older and will likely cost $100 million more. The only season in which he was much better than Giolito was last year, when Giolito fell apart amidst multiple trades and a divorce. The risk here is low; it's a two-year deal and the tax reset last year, so it's just money and especially assuming another SP signing, we probably have the depth to not lose much if Giolito bombs. But meanwhile, Giolito's ceiling is even higher than Montgomery's; he was a legit ace as recently as 2021, and he's only 29. If he kicks butt, the QO will be helpful for re-signing him / insurance if we can't.“ Dealing with trades and a divorce will certainly affect your performance! [...] Do we know if he's met someone? I hope so for his sake and the teams…
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,298
|
Post by radiohix on Dec 30, 2023 12:02:13 GMT -5
One thing for sure: With him and Kutter we’ll be leading the league in short arm action pitching
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Dec 30, 2023 15:22:00 GMT -5
Love it. Just need to add one more pitcher now Back to 2
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 31, 2023 15:01:42 GMT -5
I like the move, he gives you innings and upside. Plus a QO if he opts out, which likely pushed his price higher.
|
|
|
Post by vokuhila on Jan 3, 2024 14:15:34 GMT -5
Is there a difference between a 1 year contract with player option and a 2 year contract with opt out?
|
|
|
Post by likethewhiskey on Jan 3, 2024 15:05:11 GMT -5
Is there a difference between a 1 year contract with player option and a 2 year contract with opt out?
Caveat -- in no way an expert on this -- but it may have something to do with the protections in place if he somewhat unlikely opts in next year, then throws fewer than 140 innings in 2025. I believe the Sox have a 14MM club option then for 2026, or it converts to a 19MM mutual option if he tops 140 frames (or 1.5MM buyout in either case).
It has always been my (relatively uninformed) understanding that options = 1 year, whereas opt-outs have multi-year implications.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jan 3, 2024 15:48:05 GMT -5
That phrasing makes me wonder if that weird third year deal was cut
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 3, 2024 16:46:46 GMT -5
This is just me spitballing off the top of my head, but could it potentially affect his ability to receive a QO?
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Jan 3, 2024 17:05:24 GMT -5
This is just me spitballing off the top of my head, but could it potentially affect his ability to receive a QO? I am thinking this as well.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Jan 3, 2024 17:20:56 GMT -5
You can offer a QO to a player that declines a player option. Carlos Rodon last year was one example
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Jan 3, 2024 17:22:45 GMT -5
Pretty sure the only things that make a player ineligible for the QO are 1) a midseason trade (or getting waived, I guess) in their walk year or 2) having already received a QO. So I don’t think it would be that, either.
|
|
|