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Story dislocated left shoulder and placed on IL
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 7, 2024 12:26:52 GMT -5
To your last question - many players during WWII. Also Ken Griffey Jr. I’m sure there are others but those were the first to come to my mind LOL, Ken Griffey Jr. had a single 2.9 WAR season 20 years ago at age 35, the only time he put up at least .1 WAR in his last 7 seasons, and it's the only example anyone can come up with since WW2. Definitely not unprecedented though!
Anywho I'll stop, I guess this wound is just too fresh.
You gave a super specific set of criteria and I thought of a player off the top of my head who fit it. Broaden it slightly and you can include guys like Beltran, Trout, Tulowitzki
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 7, 2024 12:30:05 GMT -5
Yeah again it’s silly if you think people are comparing Story and Trout’s talent levels, which nobody has done. They’re saying his career probably isn’t done and that you can’t find examples of it because the scope you’re suggesting they look under is incredibly narrow. It’s a “we shall see” situation, not a “he’s 100% definitely cooked” situation which you’re trying to make it I’ve actually changed my opinion on this thanks to awalkinthepark’s insightful and convincing arguments. I guess Trevor Story will never be able to play baseball at a meaningful level again. Should we just DFA him now to spare ourselves the trouble? Maybe frame him for murder so we get all the money back on his deal? The old ASM18 would have thought those were stupid ideas, but I’ve become enlightened. I don’t necessarily buy the “career is over” angle(because he still has 2 more years left on that contract anyway). But his career as a SHORTSTOP just might be over, and that is probably a reasonable thought. Will he ever feel confident diving for a ball again? Shortstop is probably the most physically demanding position on the diamond. I’m not sure the perpetually injured 31+ year old is the right guy for the job anyway. No idea where they go from here with him.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 7, 2024 12:34:27 GMT -5
LOL, Ken Griffey Jr. had a single 2.9 WAR season 20 years ago at age 35, the only time he put up at least .1 WAR in his last 7 seasons, and it's the only example anyone can come up with since WW2. Definitely not unprecedented though!
Anywho I'll stop, I guess this wound is just too fresh.
You gave a super specific set of criteria and I thought of a player off the top of my head who fit it. Broaden it slightly and you can include guys like Beltran, Trout, Tulowitzki I think clearly the solution here is we should spend the next several hours of our Sunday on Baseball Reference to find examples to win an argument over the internet, as to comment on an injury whose severity we won’t know the details of until like tomorrow night.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 7, 2024 13:07:15 GMT -5
I’ve actually changed my opinion on this thanks to awalkinthepark’s insightful and convincing arguments. I guess Trevor Story will never be able to play baseball at a meaningful level again. Should we just DFA him now to spare ourselves the trouble? Maybe frame him for murder so we get all the money back on his deal? The old ASM18 would have thought those were stupid ideas, but I’ve become enlightened. I don’t necessarily buy the “career is over” angle(because he still has 2 more years left on that contract anyway). But his career as a SHORTSTOP just might be over, and that is probably a reasonable thought. Will he ever feel confident diving for a ball again? Shortstop is probably the most physically demanding position on the diamond. I’m not sure the perpetually injured 31+ year old is the right guy for the job anyway. No idea where they go from here with him. They could use a 3b anyways, lol.
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Post by redsoxfansince94 on Apr 7, 2024 16:11:10 GMT -5
His injury could be a built in excuse to rebuild it one more year. The Red Sox are very close with their young studs being ready. One more season of a bad record and high draft pick for a new regime.
Giolito got hurt and the Sox lost their starting shortstop. Two key loses that you just can’t fill internally.
They’ll have Hendricks back. Fullmer possibly providing a BP arm. A full year of seeing what all these SP arms are.
I do not expect this to be filled in any way that would require the Red Sox to spend money — like moving Rafaela to SS and signing an OF bat like a Pham. I don’t see why the Red Sox trade away a piece for a stop gap. So it’s another “Reyes” type move which moves no needles. Whether that move is internal or outside.
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Post by patford on Apr 7, 2024 16:13:03 GMT -5
You gave a super specific set of criteria and I thought of a player off the top of my head who fit it. Broaden it slightly and you can include guys like Beltran, Trout, Tulowitzki I think clearly the solution here is we should spend the next several hours of our Sunday on Baseball Reference to find examples to win an argument over the internet, as to comment on an injury whose severity we won’t know the details of until like tomorrow night. Only to endlessly go around and around because...important.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 7, 2024 20:23:00 GMT -5
If anyone knows of a player that - is a middle infielder - in their thirties - that has played in <100 games 3 years in a row And came back from that, I would love to hear about it. Because I don't think any player has done that any time recently. Again, Story is 31. 31 is when healthy middle infielders fall off. It was a make or break year for him. He knew it and the Sox knew it. It's why he looks so devastated in these interviews, not just because he's out this year but because it is probably the end of his career. You’re adding a lot of arbitrary parameters into the equation that limits your sample size. Find me a middle infielder in his thirties with three different/distinct injuries who failed to come back. If you can’t name that player then there is no reason to think Story cannot come back. Also frankly one player is not a large enough sample to even prove anything.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 7, 2024 20:24:44 GMT -5
Man, we could have signed Xander Bogaerts for a little bit more money and at least had a guy who would log a lot of games...instead we have this albatross of a contract for a guy who is unable to stay healthy. What a disasterclass. Do we think he tops the 162 games played in a Red Sox uniform before 2026 or nah? Marcus Semien should be the guy you are regretting not having. Iron man, moved to second but can play short, signed same year as Story for less money, and has been pretty darn good.
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Post by sxfan on Apr 7, 2024 20:31:16 GMT -5
Not sure about the talk about whether Story is a full-time player or not in the future, but I do see scenario where Story is the 10th man off the bench soon.
With Grissom at 3B, Emanuel Valdez at 2B, Mayer at SS, with Story backing up SS and 2B. Devers filling in at 3B part time.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 7, 2024 21:00:19 GMT -5
Man, we could have signed Xander Bogaerts for a little bit more money and at least had a guy who would log a lot of games...instead we have this albatross of a contract for a guy who is unable to stay healthy. What a disasterclass. Do we think he tops the 162 games played in a Red Sox uniform before 2026 or nah? Marcus Semien should be the guy you are regretting not having. Iron man, moved to second but can play short, signed same year as Story for less money, and has been pretty darn good. Didn't he get 7/175 compared to 6/140 for Story? One more year at a slightly higher AAV, and he was 31 at the start of the deal.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 7, 2024 21:36:45 GMT -5
My first thought after reading through this thread is Gawd, I'm glad the Red Sox are off to a good start because if they weren't people might be even more miserable, irrational and obtuse.
1. I don't think awalkinthepark's point was that Story will never play BB again. He opened himself up to getting knocked when he said Story's career is probably over, but incandenza (to his credit) conceded that he may have taken that comment too literally.
I think what awalkinthepark means is that Story is a bad bet to be productive for a sustained period. That's not unreasonable. Injuries have a cumulative impact on the body, not to mention that he's a MIF on the other side of 30. When 2025 comes, it will have been four years since he put up 4 B-Ref WAR or more.
awalkinthepark threw down the gauntlet by asking for a MIF who played fewer than 100 games three straight years since WW II and came back to be good again. I'm not going to stress Google by punching in thousands of names, at least not tonight, but I see his point writ large. It's got to be pretty rare and not just for MIFs.
(On second thought, does the GHWEL count here? He missed three years due to WW II and did kinda Ok from 1946 on.😎)
2. Unless I'm missing it, I don't think anyone said the RS should have matched the wack-a-doodle contract the Pads gave to X. Straw argument, my friends.
Even in the emotional days after Bogaerts signed with SD, nobody made that argument, as far as I recall. Some of us were frustrated that they had low-balled him with laughable offers when they could have had him on a reasonable deal.
3. Speaking of those low-ball offers, how do we know X was determined to test FA? They never made him an offer that he could have found the least bit enticing. I wish they had. He put up a decent year last year and, depending on Story's injury, will probably put up more value than him this year.
I read X's comments leading up to his departure as indicating he wanted to stay. I got the exact opposite feeling from MB, who kept countering generous offers with increasingly sky-high demands. He came off to me as looking to max out. After X signed with SD, he said he would have accepted a reasonable offer from the RS.
4. D-Dom had his Sale debacle and I'm afraid CB1 is going to be remembered for the $41M in AAV he handed to Story and Yoshida. My hope for both is that they become productive for a year and the RS quickly cash them in by pulling off Sale-like deals. Eat some money, get a youthful return.
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Post by bentossaurus on Apr 7, 2024 21:50:28 GMT -5
My first thought after reading through his thread is Gawd, I'm glad the Red Sox are off to a good start because if they weren't people might be even more miserable, irrational and obtuse. Some points: 1. I don't think awalkinthepark's point was that Story will never play BB again. He opened himself up to getting knocked when he said Story's career is probably over, but incandenza (to his credit) conceded that he may have taken that comment too literally. I think what awalkinthepark means is that Story is a bad bet to be a productive player for a sustained period. That's not unreasonable. These injuries have a cumulative impact on the body, not to mention that he's a MIF on the other side of 30. When 2025 comes, it will have been four years since he put up 4 B-Ref WAR or more. awalkinthepark threw down the gauntlet by asking for a MIF who played fewer than 100 games three straight years since WW II and came back to be good again. I'm not going to stress Google by punching in thousands of names, at least not tonight, but I see his point writ large. It's got to be pretty rare and not just for MIFs. (On second thought, does the GHWEL count here? He missed three straight years due to WW II and did kinda Ok from 1946 on.😎) 2. Unless I'm missing it, I don't think anyone in this thread said the RS should have matched the wack-a-doodle contract the Pads gave to X. Straw argument, my friends. Even in the emotional days after Bogaerts signed with SD, nobody made that argument, as far as I recall. Some of us were frustrated that they had low-balled him with laughable offers when they could have had him on a reasonable deal. 3. Speaking of those low-ball offers, how do we know X was determined to test FA? They never made him an offer that he could have found the least bit enticing. I wish they had. He put up a decent last year and, depending on Story's injury, will probably put up more value than him this year. I read X's comments leading up to his departure as indicating he wanted to stay. I got the exact opposite feeling from MB, who kept countering generous offers with much sky-high demands. He came off to me as a guy looking to max out. After X signed with SD, he said he would have accepted a reasonable offer from the RS. 4. D-Dom had his Sale debacle and I'm afraid CB1 is going to be remembered for the $41M in AAV he handed to Story and Yoshida. My hope for both is that they become productive for a year and the RS quickly cash them in by pulling off Sale-like deals. Eat some money, get a youthful return. Fun question: taking sentimental value aside, in a hypothetical healthy Story+Yoshida for Trout, who says no?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 7, 2024 22:05:16 GMT -5
My first thought after reading through his thread is Gawd, I'm glad the Red Sox are off to a good start because if they weren't people might be even more miserable, irrational and obtuse. Some points: 1. I don't think awalkinthepark's point was that Story will never play BB again. He opened himself up to getting knocked when he said Story's career is probably over, but incandenza (to his credit) conceded that he may have taken that comment too literally. I think what awalkinthepark means is that Story is a bad bet to be a productive player for a sustained period. That's not unreasonable. These injuries have a cumulative impact on the body, not to mention that he's a MIF on the other side of 30. When 2025 comes, it will have been four years since he put up 4 B-Ref WAR or more. awalkinthepark threw down the gauntlet by asking for a MIF who played fewer than 100 games three straight years since WW II and came back to be good again. I'm not going to stress Google by punching in thousands of names, at least not tonight, but I see his point writ large. It's got to be pretty rare and not just for MIFs. (On second thought, does the GHWEL count here? He missed three straight years due to WW II and did kinda Ok from 1946 on.😎) 2. Unless I'm missing it, I don't think anyone in this thread said the RS should have matched the wack-a-doodle contract the Pads gave to X. Straw argument, my friends. Even in the emotional days after Bogaerts signed with SD, nobody made that argument, as far as I recall. Some of us were frustrated that they had low-balled him with laughable offers when they could have had him on a reasonable deal. 3. Speaking of those low-ball offers, how do we know X was determined to test FA? They never made him an offer that he could have found the least bit enticing. I wish they had. He put up a decent last year and, depending on Story's injury, will probably put up more value than him this year. I read X's comments leading up to his departure as indicating he wanted to stay. I got the exact opposite feeling from MB, who kept countering generous offers with much sky-high demands. He came off to me as a guy looking to max out. After X signed with SD, he said he would have accepted a reasonable offer from the RS. 4. D-Dom had his Sale debacle and I'm afraid CB1 is going to be remembered for the $41M in AAV he handed to Story and Yoshida. My hope for both is that they become productive for a year and the RS quickly cash them in by pulling off Sale-like deals. Eat some money, get a youthful return. Fun question: taking sentimental value aside, in a hypothetical healthy Story+Yoshida for Trout, who says no? The Angels. If my math is correct (and it often isn't), they'd be taking on $287M in obligations and trading away $249M. They'd be trading the best player in their history for...well, for Story and Yoshida.
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Post by bentossaurus on Apr 7, 2024 22:19:16 GMT -5
My math says 172M vs 248M, but I take your point.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 7, 2024 22:21:41 GMT -5
These hot takes are going to be pretty funny tomorrow if we hear Story doesn't need surgery
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 7, 2024 22:24:37 GMT -5
Manifesting 6 weeks vs 6 months
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 7, 2024 22:41:53 GMT -5
My math says 172M vs 248M, but I take your point. I gave adequate warning about my math skills, lol. But seriously, I think I was actually off in the other direction. I have Story and Yoshida at $41M in AAV through 2027, or a combined total of eight years, counting 2024. That gets you to $328M in AAV that the Angels would have to assume. Trout signed a 12-year deal for $426.5 that runs for another eight years, counting 2024. That totals between $248M and $249M in total AAV.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 7, 2024 22:44:57 GMT -5
My math says 172M vs 248M, but I take your point. I gave adequate warning about my math skills, lol. But seriously, I think I was actually off in the other direction. I have Story and Yoshida at $41M in AAV through 2027, or a combined total of eight years, counting 2024. That gets you to $328M in AAV that the Angels would have to assume. Trout signed a 12-year deal for $426.5 that runs for another eight years, counting 2024. That totals between $248M and $249M in total AAV. There are only 4 seasons between 2024 and 2027. You've already pooled their AAV so you don't need to double count the years.
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Post by sxfan on Apr 7, 2024 23:02:42 GMT -5
Fun question: taking sentimental value aside, in a hypothetical healthy Story+Yoshida for Trout, who says no? I brought this up in the trade sub forum the beginning of spring training. Trading Yoshida's contract as a buffer to Trout's contract (bad contract for bad contract) could be one situation where Trout gets traded. No big market team is going to want Trout's contract on it's own, but trading another bad contract like Yoshida could get the Angels a really good Sox prospect or two (which the Angels would be hard pressed to refuse, since they're in no position to refuse future pieces for their bottom end 26 man roster). Trout does have the right to say no, but he won't. He's lost in Anaheim/LA. There's a clear need from the Sox for more right handed power. So it seems like a future natural fit for the Sox and Mike Trout. Devers to DH, and Trout to a corner outfield position also seems inevitable. Both scenarios would be very plausible, if not beneficial for Trout and Devers on the same team.
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 7, 2024 23:09:49 GMT -5
These hot takes are going to be pretty funny tomorrow if we hear Story doesn't need surgery How long would he be out then(hypothetically, of course)? I haven’t even heard/seen any optimism around his injury. It would sure be nice to get a positive report tomorrow.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 7, 2024 23:29:23 GMT -5
At this point I think you have to assume that Story's career is probably over. Obviously try and rehab him but this will be the third year in a row where he has played in fewer than 100 games. That's not something players generally come back from. This makes no sense to me. These are three different injuries. The first was just from getting hit by a pitch, the second was the sort of long-term structural thing you might worry about but he got surgery on and seems totally fine now, and the third had nothing to do with the first two. I don't think he can hit a breaking ball anymore, or maybe any pitch anymore. He's had some atrocious numbers since leaving Colorado on breaking pitches. 3 years of not playing isn't doing him any favors. Even if they're flukey injuries, it's really hard to basically not play for 2 and a half years and just be the same player. I'm trying to find some decent examples, maybe Stanton or Troy Tulowitzki? Probably not the best comps.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 7, 2024 23:30:23 GMT -5
These hot takes are going to be pretty funny tomorrow if we hear Story doesn't need surgery How long would he be out then(hypothetically, of course)? I haven’t even heard/seen any optimism around his injury. It would sure be nice to get a positive report tomorrow. I'm far from an expert, but best case scenario from what I've read would be if the subluxation didn't cause any major structural damage. In that case the time he'd miss would probably be on the order of weeks. For example: "At the moment, there’s no set timetable for Story to return, but even in a best-case scenario it’s likely he’ll be out more than 10 days as he will need to wait for swelling to subside before undertaking a ramp-up to game action. A worst-case scenario, of course, entails season-ending surgery." theathletic.com/5396545/2024/04/06/trevor-story-red-sox-injured-list/
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 7, 2024 23:34:36 GMT -5
You missed the point on this. You can re-read it and try again if you like, but so far you've made three comments in response to me without addressing my core point. To asm18's point - Trout is a pretty good comp. He's played in 36, 119, and 82 games in the last three years. How confident would anyone be that he'll play 150 games this season? Not very. Would it be reasonable to assume that his career is essentially over? No, it would make no sense at all.
Mike Trout a. doesn't have the same injury history as Story and b. is one of the ten best position players to ever step on a baseball diamond! Are you seriously going to use Trout as an example of what you can expect from Story? If that isn't cope then I don't know what is. Again - I would love to be wrong. I want Story to be good. But as far as I can tell there is zero precedent for a player to have an injury history like Story for 3 straight years and then still have another productive season in his thirties. You can't sit out of baseball for that long and expect guys to still be good. You can make all the excuses you want for his bat last year but the fact is your skills deteriorate when you sit out for so long, especially since your skills are already deteriorating in your thirties anyway. So I'll ask again, provide me with even a single player who has played in <100 games 3 years in a row and came back to have a good season in his thirties. Remove the middle infielder qualification too - name any non-DH position player who has done that. Because I haven't found anyone, which means if he is out for most of this year, the Red Sox need to move on from him heading into 2025. I'm on your side with the concern that his bat is likely completely fried at this point, though I think his glove will still be good enough. With that said, Trout is an example of someone with injuries so I think the example is fair. Even the greatest get derailed by injuries. Trout has been fine. Though I think what he has is something the the Angels will need to manage until the end of his career.
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Post by pappyman99 on Apr 8, 2024 6:54:31 GMT -5
The only reason the trout comparison is not fair is you can’t discount their value the same way. Trout was by far the better player at his peak than Story.
So Story can come back but still relative to his own value that might mean he never has a 3 WAR season again
Like I said if Mayer is ready for 2025 and Grissom is a good hitter. Story becomes an actual albatross contract at that point
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 8, 2024 7:08:54 GMT -5
I gave adequate warning about my math skills, lol. But seriously, I think I was actually off in the other direction. I have Story and Yoshida at $41M in AAV through 2027, or a combined total of eight years, counting 2024. That gets you to $328M in AAV that the Angels would have to assume. Trout signed a 12-year deal for $426.5 that runs for another eight years, counting 2024. That totals between $248M and $249M in total AAV. There are only 4 seasons between 2024 and 2027. You've already pooled their AAV so you don't need to double count the years. Lordie, you're right and thanks for correcting. Apologies to Bentonsaurus for second guessing his math. I still don't think the Angels make that trade and I'm not sure I'd want to the Red Sox to make it either. Given the delta in the amount of salary we'd be giving up and what we'd be taking on, I'd want a decent prospect thrown in. That's a problem because the Angels don't have much to give up when it comes to prospects.
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