SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Story dislocated left shoulder and placed on IL
|
Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Apr 9, 2024 13:51:02 GMT -5
Blood in the water for Mayer, if he wants it
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 9, 2024 14:56:30 GMT -5
After this season I'm looking to see if I can make a Chris Sale-like trade for Story.
|
|
|
Post by pappyman99 on Apr 9, 2024 18:16:50 GMT -5
Best case scenario
Grissom is an MLB hitter and we move him to LF in 2025, with Mayer at SS and Story at 2B
Than could be very ideal to be honest but good grief Masa may have to be shown the door in the off-season
|
|
|
Post by asm18 on Apr 9, 2024 20:08:45 GMT -5
After this season I'm looking to see if I can make a Chris Sale-like trade for Story. Per @redsoxpayroll - “Total remaining guarantee after this season: 3yrs/$72.5MM (backloaded, thus lesser AAV)”. Sale only had one year left (along with deferrals) that the Sox were willing to pay down to get Grissom. 72 mil is a lot of money to swallow.
|
|
|
Post by kevfc89 on Apr 9, 2024 20:12:39 GMT -5
this really sucks...story is clearly one of the good ones, hope he can bounce back next year
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Apr 9, 2024 20:59:57 GMT -5
I had a major concussion playing first base when I tried to catch a badly overthrown ball and got plowed by the runner. My memory is fuzzy, but I don't think I had a realistic shot at catching it. The concussion ended my best season and I had headache issues that changed the trajectory of my life dramatically. I've always wondered how things would have been different if I didn't try to catch that ball, and it's something that's taken me a long time to come to terms with. All this to say that I hope that it doesn't eat away at Story that he dove after a ball when he had absolutely no shot at throwing out the runner. The drive that made him go after it is what got him to the top of the sport in the first place. Hopefully it can get him back there again.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 9, 2024 21:08:46 GMT -5
Story needs to take time for himself, but he can still be big as a leader for this team. He can help guys like Duran from being too hard on himself, for one.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 10, 2024 10:30:31 GMT -5
This is brutal. My heart goes out to Story. He reminds me of Sale - a ton of talent that keeps getting injured.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Apr 12, 2024 21:23:53 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 13, 2024 8:37:08 GMT -5
I feel really sorry for Story. The guy clearly lives to play, and he is having many years taken by injuries. That is cruel. This. I mean, at the same time you could exchange the name "Sale" for "Story" and it was an evergreen since 2019. I say this being big fans of them both rebounding. Was not a fan of the Sale re-signing (I wanted him to prove he was healthy, and I wanted them to go after Cole), but was supportive of the Story acquisition when they passed on Seager. After his extension, Sale gave the Red Sox a total of 4 years, 6.7 fWAR and (according to Fangraphs) produced $53.5M in results/value at a rate of $24.1M per year over 4 years (and I believe they are still paying him $17M this year, yes?) for a total of $113.4M invested. So far, Story has given the Red Sox a total of 3 years, 2.9 fWAR and $23.1M in results/value at $23.3M per year over 3 years with 3 years still to go (assuming Story doesn't opt out in 2025), for a total of $140M invested. The Sale deal was supposed to be Dombroski's death knell. Bloom took fewer big risks, but the three he did take — Story and Yoshida acquisitions, Devers extension — Story is looking a lot like the Sale deal, and probably worse unless he can generate about 4 fWAR next year. Yoshida is TBA but not off to an auspicious start, either.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Apr 13, 2024 22:12:12 GMT -5
I feel really sorry for Story. The guy clearly lives to play, and he is having many years taken by injuries. That is cruel. This. I mean, at the same time you could exchange the name "Sale" for "Story" and it was an evergreen since 2019. I say this being big fans of them both rebounding. Was not a fan of the Sale re-signing (I wanted him to prove he was healthy, and I wanted them to go after Cole), but was supportive of the Story acquisition when they passed on Seager. After his extension, Sale gave the Red Sox a total of 4 years, 6.7 fWAR and (according to Fangraphs) produced $53.5M in results/value at a rate of $24.1M per year over 4 years (and I believe they are still paying him $17M this year, yes?) for a total of $113.4M invested. So far, Story has given the Red Sox a total of 3 years, 2.9 fWAR and $23.1M in results/value at $23.3M per year over 3 years with 3 years still to go (assuming Story doesn't opt out in 2025), for a total of $140M invested. The Sale deal was supposed to be Dombroski's death knell. Bloom took fewer big risks, but the three he did take — Story and Yoshida acquisitions, Devers extension — Story is looking a lot like the Sale deal, and probably worse unless he can generate about 4 fWAR next year. Yoshida is TBA but not off to an auspicious start, either. The difference is that Sale was extended a year early when he had already shown signs of arm trouble, and he predictably needed TJ before the extension even kicked in. Story's elbow was balky, but even if you give him a decent chance of elbow surgery at some point over his contract (and this was obviously priced in), we are well beyond that with the wrist fracture and shoulder injury. Sale had some freak injuries too, but those aren't why the signing was panned. Edit: I don't think people realize how much cheaper Story was because of his elbow trouble. Javy Baez got the same exact deal that offseason... At this point Yoshida's contract strikes me as a lot worse than Story's. He had no MLB track record, limited defensive ability, wasn't even a great roster fit, and he was paid a lot more than many expected. A lot is/was riding on that bat being elite.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,068
|
Post by cdj on Apr 13, 2024 22:28:36 GMT -5
This. I mean, at the same time you could exchange the name "Sale" for "Story" and it was an evergreen since 2019. I say this being big fans of them both rebounding. Was not a fan of the Sale re-signing (I wanted him to prove he was healthy, and I wanted them to go after Cole), but was supportive of the Story acquisition when they passed on Seager. After his extension, Sale gave the Red Sox a total of 4 years, 6.7 fWAR and (according to Fangraphs) produced $53.5M in results/value at a rate of $24.1M per year over 4 years (and I believe they are still paying him $17M this year, yes?) for a total of $113.4M invested. So far, Story has given the Red Sox a total of 3 years, 2.9 fWAR and $23.1M in results/value at $23.3M per year over 3 years with 3 years still to go (assuming Story doesn't opt out in 2025), for a total of $140M invested. The Sale deal was supposed to be Dombroski's death knell. Bloom took fewer big risks, but the three he did take — Story and Yoshida acquisitions, Devers extension — Story is looking a lot like the Sale deal, and probably worse unless he can generate about 4 fWAR next year. Yoshida is TBA but not off to an auspicious start, either. The difference is that Sale was extended a year early when he had already shown signs of arm trouble, and he predictably needed TJ before the extension even kicked in. Story's elbow was balky, but even if you give him a decent chance of elbow surgery at some point over his contract (and this was obviously priced in), we are well beyond that with the wrist fracture and shoulder injury. Sale had some freak injuries too, but those aren't why the signing was panned. Edit: I don't think people realize how much cheaper Story was because of his elbow trouble. Javy Baez got the same exact deal that offseason... At this point Yoshida's contract strikes me as a lot worse than Story's. He had no MLB track record, limited defensive ability, wasn't even a great roster fit, and he was paid a lot more than many expected. A lot is/was riding on that bat being elite. Story was an easy $200 mill player without the elbow problem
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 13, 2024 22:48:48 GMT -5
This. I mean, at the same time you could exchange the name "Sale" for "Story" and it was an evergreen since 2019. I say this being big fans of them both rebounding. Was not a fan of the Sale re-signing (I wanted him to prove he was healthy, and I wanted them to go after Cole), but was supportive of the Story acquisition when they passed on Seager. After his extension, Sale gave the Red Sox a total of 4 years, 6.7 fWAR and (according to Fangraphs) produced $53.5M in results/value at a rate of $24.1M per year over 4 years (and I believe they are still paying him $17M this year, yes?) for a total of $113.4M invested. So far, Story has given the Red Sox a total of 3 years, 2.9 fWAR and $23.1M in results/value at $23.3M per year over 3 years with 3 years still to go (assuming Story doesn't opt out in 2025), for a total of $140M invested. The Sale deal was supposed to be Dombroski's death knell. Bloom took fewer big risks, but the three he did take — Story and Yoshida acquisitions, Devers extension — Story is looking a lot like the Sale deal, and probably worse unless he can generate about 4 fWAR next year. Yoshida is TBA but not off to an auspicious start, either. The difference is that Sale was extended a year early when he had already shown signs of arm trouble, and he predictably needed TJ before the extension even kicked in. Story's elbow was balky, but even if you give him a decent chance of elbow surgery at some point over his contract (and this was obviously priced in), we are well beyond that with the wrist fracture and shoulder injury. Sale had some freak injuries too, but those aren't why the signing was panned. Edit: I don't think people realize how much cheaper Story was because of his elbow trouble. Javy Baez got the same exact deal that offseason... At this point Yoshida's contract strikes me as a lot worse than Story's. He had no MLB track record, limited defensive ability, wasn't even a great roster fit, and he was paid a lot more than many expected. A lot is/was riding on that bat being elite. A question with a not obvious answer is how and where they would have gotten a better bat on a reasonable contract in the last two free agent classes if they hadn't signed Yoshida.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Apr 14, 2024 10:09:28 GMT -5
The difference is that Sale was extended a year early when he had already shown signs of arm trouble, and he predictably needed TJ before the extension even kicked in. Story's elbow was balky, but even if you give him a decent chance of elbow surgery at some point over his contract (and this was obviously priced in), we are well beyond that with the wrist fracture and shoulder injury. Sale had some freak injuries too, but those aren't why the signing was panned. Edit: I don't think people realize how much cheaper Story was because of his elbow trouble. Javy Baez got the same exact deal that offseason... At this point Yoshida's contract strikes me as a lot worse than Story's. He had no MLB track record, limited defensive ability, wasn't even a great roster fit, and he was paid a lot more than many expected. A lot is/was riding on that bat being elite. A question with a not obvious answer is how and where they would have gotten a better bat on a reasonable contract in the last two free agent classes if they hadn't signed Yoshida. Yoshida has a 106 wRC+ in his MLB career with no glove. I am not closing the door on him becoming more than that - we've all seen how he looked last year when he was hot - but replacing Yoshida's production would have been incredibly easy. Guys like JD Davis are practically being given away nowadays. Soler got less than half of Yoshida's guarantee and Hoskins got more like a third. JDM and Turner types are available on one year deals at like two thirds of Yoshida's AAV.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 14, 2024 10:24:43 GMT -5
A question with a not obvious answer is how and where they would have gotten a better bat on a reasonable contract in the last two free agent classes if they hadn't signed Yoshida. Yoshida has a 106 wRC+ in his MLB career with no glove. I am not closing the door on him becoming more than that - we've all seen how he looked last year when he was hot - but replacing Yoshida's production would have been incredibly easy. Guys like JD Davis are practically being given away nowadays. Soler got less than half of Yoshida's guarantee and Hoskins got more like a third. JDM and Turner types are available on one year deals at like two thirds of Yoshida's AAV. FWIW, Yoshida's projections are comparable to Hoskins' and better than any of the other guys you mentioned (though also comparable to Turner for the length of his one-year deal; and here it would be relevant that the Red Sox did in fact sign Turner as well last season).
Yoshida was fine last season overall; he gave them a 109 wRC+, which is not great for a poor-fielding LFer but also there were not other great options available. Kind of a wash in year one of the deal. So the question is still how good he'll be going forward. If he finishes with, say, a 125 wRC+ or better this year the signing looks pretty good; 110 or worse and it looks pretty bad.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 10:57:53 GMT -5
Yoshida has a 106 wRC+ in his MLB career with no glove. I am not closing the door on him becoming more than that - we've all seen how he looked last year when he was hot - but replacing Yoshida's production would have been incredibly easy. Guys like JD Davis are practically being given away nowadays. Soler got less than half of Yoshida's guarantee and Hoskins got more like a third. JDM and Turner types are available on one year deals at like two thirds of Yoshida's AAV. FWIW, Yoshida's projections are comparable to Hoskins' and better than any of the other guys you mentioned (though also comparable to Turner for the length of his one-year deal; and here it would be relevant that the Red Sox did in fact sign Turner as well last season).
Yoshida was fine last season overall; he gave them a 109 wRC+, which is not great for a poor-fielding LFer but also there were not other great options available. Kind of a wash in year one of the deal. So the question is still how good he'll be going forward. If he finishes with, say, a 125 wRC+ or better this year the signing looks pretty good; 110 or worse and it looks pretty bad.
With 147 games left, he’d need a 50 point swing in wRC+. Out of curiosity, for the mathematicians, what would that be for the rest of the season? In 155 career games he’s at 106. So he’d be kicking it into a gear we have not seen.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 14, 2024 11:04:01 GMT -5
FWIW, Yoshida's projections are comparable to Hoskins' and better than any of the other guys you mentioned (though also comparable to Turner for the length of his one-year deal; and here it would be relevant that the Red Sox did in fact sign Turner as well last season).
Yoshida was fine last season overall; he gave them a 109 wRC+, which is not great for a poor-fielding LFer but also there were not other great options available. Kind of a wash in year one of the deal. So the question is still how good he'll be going forward. If he finishes with, say, a 125 wRC+ or better this year the signing looks pretty good; 110 or worse and it looks pretty bad.
With 147 games left, he’d need a 50 point swing in wRC+. Out of curiosity, for the mathematicians, what would that be for the rest of the season? In 155 career games he’s at 106. So he’d be kicking it into a gear we have not seen. To end the season at 125, he'd need to go roughly 130 the rest of the way. (Not exactly a gear we haven't seen - from April 22 to July 25 last season he had a 155 wRC+ over 313 PAs.)
ADD: One game later and he's at 95. 40% of the way there!
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Apr 14, 2024 11:09:32 GMT -5
Yoshida has a 106 wRC+ in his MLB career with no glove. I am not closing the door on him becoming more than that - we've all seen how he looked last year when he was hot - but replacing Yoshida's production would have been incredibly easy. Guys like JD Davis are practically being given away nowadays. Soler got less than half of Yoshida's guarantee and Hoskins got more like a third. JDM and Turner types are available on one year deals at like two thirds of Yoshida's AAV. FWIW, Yoshida's projections are comparable to Hoskins' and better than any of the other guys you mentioned (though also comparable to Turner for the length of his one-year deal; and here it would be relevant that the Red Sox did in fact sign Turner as well last season).
Yoshida was fine last season overall; he gave them a 109 wRC+, which is not great for a poor-fielding LFer but also there were not other great options available. Kind of a wash in year one of the deal. So the question is still how good he'll be going forward. If he finishes with, say, a 125 wRC+ or better this year the signing looks pretty good; 110 or worse and it looks pretty bad.
Yoshida's projections were quite a bit better than any of those guys, but now they're only marginally better than the cheap one-year guys and in line with the still-much-cheaper multi-year guys. Here are the ROS wRC+ ranges & medians across the various projection systems Fangraphs shows for each player:
Davis: 102-106 (Median 105)
Martinez: 101-110 (Median 106) Turner: 98-115 (Median 107) Yoshida: 106-117 (Median 114)
Hoskins: 111-115 (Median 114)
Soler: 111-122 (Median 116)
And all of these other guys are RHH, which would have made more sense with the Sox roster even before the Story injury, but especially now. All but Martinez (who is injured) have also started better than Yoshida, so he'd look a smidge worse across the board if you added everyone's current season totals to their ROS projections.
---
My basic point is that Story's contract made a ton of sense given his MLB track record, the Sox' roster needs, the FA climate, and the price. I don't feel it's reasonable to knock the deal retroactively based on his broken wrist and shoulder injury, as no GM could have anticipated those. He had been nothing but durable in Colorado aside from the elbow, and even that he was mostly able to play through. He's also been pretty solid in Boston while healthy despite the adversity from his injuries. Yoshida, though, looked like a gamble at the time given his lack of MLB experience and poor roster fit (another weak defender on a team full of them, another LHH on a team loaded with young LHH, another guy without speed, etc.). I was willing to trust the team's evaluation of his talent and withhold judgment, and I still am given that we're only early in year 2, but that's a deal that pretty much can only be evaluated with hindsight given that Yoshida hadn't played in MLB prior to signing, and so far the returns look poor.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 11:19:20 GMT -5
With 147 games left, he’d need a 50 point swing in wRC+. Out of curiosity, for the mathematicians, what would that be for the rest of the season? In 155 career games he’s at 106. So he’d be kicking it into a gear we have not seen. To end the season at 125, he'd need to go roughly 130 the rest of the way. (Not exactly a gear we haven't seen - from April 22 to July 25 last season he had a 155 wRC+ over 313 PAs.) So he’d have to approach his peak but for almost twice as long. I’ll take the under.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 14, 2024 11:22:31 GMT -5
FWIW, Yoshida's projections are comparable to Hoskins' and better than any of the other guys you mentioned (though also comparable to Turner for the length of his one-year deal; and here it would be relevant that the Red Sox did in fact sign Turner as well last season).
Yoshida was fine last season overall; he gave them a 109 wRC+, which is not great for a poor-fielding LFer but also there were not other great options available. Kind of a wash in year one of the deal. So the question is still how good he'll be going forward. If he finishes with, say, a 125 wRC+ or better this year the signing looks pretty good; 110 or worse and it looks pretty bad.
Yoshida's projections were quite a bit better than any of those guys, but now they're only marginally better than the cheap one-year guys and in line with the still-much-cheaper multi-year guys. Here are the ROS wRC+ ranges & medians across the various projection systems Fangraphs shows for each player:
Davis: 102-106 (Median 105)
Martinez: 101-110 (Median 106) Turner: 98-115 (Median 107) Yoshida: 106-117 (Median 114)
Hoskins: 111-115 (Median 114)
Soler: 111-122 (Median 116)
And all of these other guys are RHH, which would have made more sense with the Sox roster even before the Story injury, but especially now. All but Martinez (who is injured) have also started better than Yoshida, so he'd look a smidge worse across the board if you added everyone's current season totals to their ROS projections.
---
My basic point is that Story's contract made a ton of sense given his MLB track record, the Sox' roster needs, the FA climate, and the price. I don't feel it's reasonable to knock the deal retroactively based on his broken wrist and shoulder injury, as no GM could have anticipated those. He had been nothing but durable in Colorado aside from the elbow, and even that he was mostly able to play through. He's also been pretty solid in Boston while healthy despite the adversity from his injuries. Yoshida, though, looked like a gamble at the time given his lack of MLB experience and poor roster fit (another weak defender on a team full of them, another LHH on a team loaded with young LHH, another guy without speed, etc.). I was willing to trust the team's evaluation of his talent and withhold judgment, and I still am given that we're only early in year 2, but that's a deal that pretty much can only be evaluated with hindsight given that Yoshida hadn't played in MLB prior to signing, and so far the returns look poor.
I could quibble with some of the points about the projections, but I pretty much agree with what you're saying here. I'm just still fairly optimistic on Yoshida and not inclined to come to a negative judgment yet. See my comment above - he had a 155 wRC+ over a full half of a season! That's not something a crummy hitter would be able to pull off. It also seems like if it were an issue of the league adjusting to him he wouldn't have been able to keep it up for that long. And we also have a plausible alternative theory about why he faded in the last third of the season last year, seemingly confirmed by the man himself.
So we'll just have to see.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2024 11:50:16 GMT -5
Yoshida's projections were quite a bit better than any of those guys, but now they're only marginally better than the cheap one-year guys and in line with the still-much-cheaper multi-year guys. Here are the ROS wRC+ ranges & medians across the various projection systems Fangraphs shows for each player:
Davis: 102-106 (Median 105)
Martinez: 101-110 (Median 106) Turner: 98-115 (Median 107) Yoshida: 106-117 (Median 114)
Hoskins: 111-115 (Median 114)
Soler: 111-122 (Median 116)
And all of these other guys are RHH, which would have made more sense with the Sox roster even before the Story injury, but especially now. All but Martinez (who is injured) have also started better than Yoshida, so he'd look a smidge worse across the board if you added everyone's current season totals to their ROS projections.
---
My basic point is that Story's contract made a ton of sense given his MLB track record, the Sox' roster needs, the FA climate, and the price. I don't feel it's reasonable to knock the deal retroactively based on his broken wrist and shoulder injury, as no GM could have anticipated those. He had been nothing but durable in Colorado aside from the elbow, and even that he was mostly able to play through. He's also been pretty solid in Boston while healthy despite the adversity from his injuries. Yoshida, though, looked like a gamble at the time given his lack of MLB experience and poor roster fit (another weak defender on a team full of them, another LHH on a team loaded with young LHH, another guy without speed, etc.). I was willing to trust the team's evaluation of his talent and withhold judgment, and I still am given that we're only early in year 2, but that's a deal that pretty much can only be evaluated with hindsight given that Yoshida hadn't played in MLB prior to signing, and so far the returns look poor.
I could quibble with some of the points about the projections, but I pretty much agree with what you're saying here. I'm just still fairly optimistic on Yoshida and not inclined to come to a negative judgment yet. See my comment above - he had a 155 wRC+ over a full half of a season! That's not something a crummy hitter would be able to pull off. It also seems like if it were an issue of the league adjusting to him he wouldn't have been able to keep it up for that long. And we also have a plausible alternative theory about why he faded in the last third of the season last year, seemingly confirmed by the man himself.
So we'll just have to see.
61 games, 195 plate appearances 15 home runs, .269 ba, .344 ob .611 slugging (.955 OPS). Robert Dalbec, second half, 2021. I think sometimes crummy hitters work wonders.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 14, 2024 12:00:08 GMT -5
Something I've been thinking about re: Dalbec: everyone's been saying "this is who he really is," but I actually think it's just the aging curve that got to him.
At age 25-26 he peaked as a decent (but streaky) hitter. At age 27 he could only mash lefties. At age 28 he could only mash AAA. At age 29 I'm not sure if he can even do that.
Of course this cuts both ways on Yoshida. On the one hand, I think Dalbec *was* a decent hitter, not a crummy one, in 2021, so that doesn't give evidence that a crummy hitter can maintain elite offensive numbers for half a season. On the other hand, Yoshida turns 31 this year, so age-related decline is certainly a danger with him too.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Apr 14, 2024 12:01:36 GMT -5
This is the Story shoulder injury to the IL thread. Let's stick with that please.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 14, 2024 13:06:26 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by bellhorndingers21 on Apr 14, 2024 13:21:33 GMT -5
Pretty spot on with the exception that the work on the glenoid probably delays things a bit. If anyone is interested Mike Reinold and Kevin Wilk are major PTs in the overhead athlete world and often will post on Instagram various athletes training with them. Wilk had a bunch of content with Whitlock.
|
|
|