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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 16, 2013 17:49:19 GMT -5
What people in this thread really mean when they say "Doubront is more valuable!" is "I'd much rather give up Doubront!" "Surely the player I hate and desperately want to get rid of has a ton of value to other teams."
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 17, 2013 10:02:50 GMT -5
If Phils choose to move Lee I really question who would buy outside of the Red Sox. What teams are there that could pick up Lee's contract dollar for dollar? Teams that are contending, not many, Texas and St. Louis? LAD is always a possibility, but very doubtful they make this trade without a huge turnaround. If they are looking to dump Lee's salary so they can redistribute it on the market like Ben did last year, they might not command that much talent back, as Texas, St. Louis, and Boston have all held on to their prospects pretty tightly.
Now if they are willing to turn Lee's 25M into 12.5M, yea plenty of teams would want him.
It might make sense for the Philies to package Lee and Pap. If we were taking every dollar of these contracts they couldn't expect that much back prospect wise.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,982
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Post by jimoh on Jun 18, 2013 18:17:42 GMT -5
Doubront, one of the Big Five pitching prospects, Brentz (they need RHH power and do not care about walks), and Coyle who is from Philadelphia; they pay half the salary.
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Post by welovewally on Jun 18, 2013 20:27:12 GMT -5
As long as we are making long shot trade suggestions how about; Lester, Gomes, Napoli, Drew & Bailey for Lee & Paplebon
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Post by bjb406 on Jun 18, 2013 21:59:01 GMT -5
Why in god's name would we do that?
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Cliff Lee
Jun 18, 2013 22:44:01 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by honkbal on Jun 18, 2013 22:44:01 GMT -5
Why in god's name would we do that? The question is, why would the Phillies do that? They aren't improving future talent or gaining significant salary relief.
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 19, 2013 15:08:19 GMT -5
I think it was Sarcasm.... Or I'm hoping it was.
I'd trade Doubront to the Phillies straight up if the sox need to eat the whole salary. Maybe I'd throw in an A-ball prospect.
I don't want that Lee contract anywhere near this team. Ben C. has a great plan, he just needs to stay the course.
The Phillies aint trading Paps or Lee unless they get blown..... away
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 20, 2013 0:16:35 GMT -5
The Phillies aint trading Paps or Lee unless they get blown..... away Maybe we could trade them a competent GM.
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Post by jdb on Jun 20, 2013 12:03:36 GMT -5
From Fangraphs www.fangraphs.com/blogs/shopping-for-a-starting-pitcher-good-luck/The Phillies really hold all the cards here. Cliff Lee’s contract is expensive, but he’s probably never going to have more trade value than he will in the next month, simply because the non-Cliff-Lee pitchers kind of suck. Ruben Amaro‘s reticence to blow up his aging roster is understandable, but there’s also such a thing as taking advantage of market conditions. As good as Lee is, the Phillies could repurpose $25 million per year on other players in the free agent market over the off-season, and if they were able to shed Jonathan Papelbon‘s contract as well, they’d be in a position to make some real improvements to a roster that needs some depth. Lee is a difference maker in a market that offers none. If the Phillies put him in play, they’ll be the only team selling a real playoff quality starting pitcher, or at least one you can count on getting to October in one piece anyway. That’s a good position to be in as a seller, and it’s one they should take advantage of.
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Post by prangerx on Jun 24, 2013 20:34:08 GMT -5
This might sound crazy but to get Lee without selling the farm.....
Lester, Middlebrooks, Brentz, Workman, Montas, and Bard for Lee, Papelbon, and Young.. With Drew going in a separate trade. .
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Post by Guidas on Jun 24, 2013 22:02:31 GMT -5
These are amazing proposals but I think you have to offer more prime prospects or take more money. Example: More prospects and take 50% of the cash you still have to offer one of Webster OR De LaRosa, plus one of Barnes OR Ranado, plus Bradley, plus, say, an A ball guy like Betts.
If Sox took all the money then it would probably be just - just - one of Webster OR De LaRosa, plus of Barnes OR Ranado, plus a B prospect like hazelbaker or Almanzar. That's just my guess but they recognize the value in theirbposession and theam teams' desperation in dealing.
It will be competitive and they will get a LOT.
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Post by honkbal on Jun 24, 2013 22:17:04 GMT -5
This might sound crazy but to get Lee without selling the farm..... Lester, Middlebrooks, Brentz, Workman, Montas, and Bard for Lee, Papelbon, and Young.. With Drew going in a separate trade. . Well, I can see why the Phillies would like this deal, but what's in it for us. Also, Bard is on my no trade list, so maybe they would take Mortenson instead?
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 24, 2013 22:21:29 GMT -5
I really have no interest in major trades this year. We had a 3-5 year plan going into this season and that shouldn't be ditched at this point. We have a lot more than one shot at another WS title. If we're trading for a 25 year old Josh Beckett I might be a little more open, but that's not going to happen probably ever again so we need to develop our own. Otherwise, we'll always be chasing a title with old overpriced players like Cliff Lee who's arm is just waiting to fall off. I thought we learned our lesson. Making trades like these are what led us to having the season we had in 2011 and 2012.
For me the future is a lot brighter than the present even as we're in first place today. Seems like a lot of smoke and mirrors have led us where we're at right now.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 6, 2013 11:40:30 GMT -5
I really have no interest in major trades this year. We had a 3-5 year plan going into this season and that shouldn't be ditched at this point. We have a lot more than one shot at another WS title. If we're trading for a 25 year old Josh Beckett I might be a little more open, but that's not going to happen probably ever again so we need to develop our own. Otherwise, we'll always be chasing a title with old overpriced players like Cliff Lee who's arm is just waiting to fall off. I thought we learned our lesson. Making trades like these are what led us to having the season we had in 2011 and 2012. For me the future is a lot brighter than the present even as we're in first place today. Seems like a lot of smoke and mirrors have led us where we're at right now. Curt Schilling worked out pretty well, and I think you can draw a lot of comparisons between him and Lee. Both older pitchers probably a little off their prime, both kind of expensive because of that, but also the single best starting pitcher the team could realistically acquire at the time. And it's a situation where the Sox are giving up less in terms of prospects in exchange for taking on an expensive contract (that's speculative in the case of Lee, of course). They're also both extreme control pitchers and durable as hell, and those guys tend to age pretty well. And as far as the cost goes... yeah, Lee probably is overpaid. But have you seen the 2014 free agent class? You're not going to spend the money any better there. At least with Lee it's only a three year commitment. He'll be off the books by the time the Sox are thinking about giving Bogaerts or Bradley or whoever any real money, which at this point is the only smart money you can really spend in baseball. And as far as the five year plan and how great the farm system is, I have three words for you: Kansas City Royals. I love the farm system too, but it's crazy to wait for chances to win a World Series that you think you MIGHT have in the future when there's a perfectly good chance to win the World Series sitting right in front of you. I wouldn't do the trade if it required Bogaerts or Bradley, and Cecchini would be a tough decision... but after that, hell yeah, go get Cliff Lee.
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Post by mainesox on Jul 6, 2013 12:13:23 GMT -5
I really have no interest in major trades this year. We had a 3-5 year plan going into this season and that shouldn't be ditched at this point. We have a lot more than one shot at another WS title. If we're trading for a 25 year old Josh Beckett I might be a little more open, but that's not going to happen probably ever again so we need to develop our own. Otherwise, we'll always be chasing a title with old overpriced players like Cliff Lee who's arm is just waiting to fall off. I thought we learned our lesson. Making trades like these are what led us to having the season we had in 2011 and 2012. For me the future is a lot brighter than the present even as we're in first place today. Seems like a lot of smoke and mirrors have led us where we're at right now. Curt Schilling worked out pretty well, and I think you can draw a lot of comparisons between him and Lee. Both older pitchers probably a little off their prime, both kind of expensive because of that, but also the single best starting pitcher the team could realistically acquire at the time. And it's a situation where the Sox are giving up less in terms of prospects in exchange for taking on an expensive contract ( that's speculative in the case of Lee, of course). They're also both extreme control pitchers and durable as hell, and those guys tend to age pretty well. And as far as the cost goes... yeah, Lee probably is overpaid. But have you seen the 2014 free agent class? You're not going to spend the money any better there. At least with Lee it's only a three year commitment. He'll be off the books by the time the Sox are thinking about giving Bogaerts or Bradley or whoever any real money, which at this point is the only smart money you can really spend in baseball. And as far as the five year plan and how great the farm system is, I have three words for you: Kansas City Royals. I love the farm system too, but it's crazy to wait for chances to win a World Series that you think you MIGHT have in the future when there's a perfectly good chance to win the World Series sitting right in front of you. I wouldn't do the trade if it required Bogaerts or Bradley, and Cecchini would be a tough decision... but after that, hell yeah, go get Cliff Lee. A little speculative maybe, but Amaro essentially said that if he ends up trading either Pap or Lee he won't be taking on any of the salary. Link
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Post by jchang on Jul 6, 2013 12:39:03 GMT -5
Given that we have more eligible grade/scale 4-5 (bench and avg) prospects than we have room for on the 40-man this winter, at some point it would make sense to package several of these for one grade 6+ player - who will probably not be a prospect or cheap current mlb player, ie, it will be someone drawing a big salary or heading to free agency. But it will probably take Doubront and one of the grade 6 prospects to get Lee.
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Post by jmei on Jul 6, 2013 13:30:08 GMT -5
If the Red Sox can acquire Lee without giving up Doubront or any of the top 5 prospects (Bogaerts, Bradley, Cecchini, Webster, De La Rosa), I absolutely do it. I would even strongly consider having any non-Xander/Bradley prospect headline a smaller package. Lee is unambiguously a significant upgrade over the existing rotation candidates, and that upgrade matters a lot more in the postseason. The payroll is also remarkably free of expensive, long-term commitments, with close to $40m of contracts coming off the books this offseason and only two real holes to fill (C and 1B).
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Post by mainesox on Jul 6, 2013 13:58:49 GMT -5
I might actually rather give up Doubront than any of those guys in the top 5. I know he's the one currently having success in the majors, while the others are simply potential still, but he may not even have a spot in the rotation as soon as next season anyway (he's also the most likely to lose his spot in the rotation in the event of a trade for a SP - Demspter might be a better option to take out of the rotation, but they aren't going to do that), and - while I recognize that it's far from a guarantee that any of the prospects become better, or even as good as he is - he struggles too much with consistency for me to trust him in any important game (on any given night he could go out and give up 6 runs and/or be out by the 5th inning).
Not that I'd be trying to get rid of Doubront by any means, I actually like him quite well as a back end guy, but he's not as vital to the team's future as those other guys, or at least he doesn't seem to be to me.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 6, 2013 15:47:00 GMT -5
If the Red Sox can acquire Lee without giving up Doubront or any of the top 5 prospects (Bogaerts, Bradley, Cecchini, Webster, De La Rosa), I absolutely do it. I would even strongly consider having any non-Xander/Bradley prospect headline a smaller package. Lee is unambiguously a significant upgrade over the existing rotation candidates, and that upgrade matters a lot more in the postseason. The payroll is also remarkably free of expensive, long-term commitments, with close to $40m of contracts coming off the books this offseason and only two real holes to fill (C and 1B). If you look at the James Shields trade, Dayton Moore really screwed himself by getting a good pitcher for 2013 at the cost of his best right fielder in 2013. So right away he was offsetting the value of Shields by giving Jeff Francoeur a job. And that's basically where I would draw the line when it comes to a trade. It's self defeating to give up the guys who are actually going to contribute in the Cliff Lee Era. Webster is helping the team right now, Bradley might actually be the second or third best outfielder on the team at this point, and it's not unimaginable that Bogaerts could grab the third base job this year. RDLR probably belongs in this group as well, Cecchini is somewhat borderline (obviously I'd hate to lose him).
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 6, 2013 23:37:34 GMT -5
. [] And as far as the five year plan and how great the farm system is, I have three words for you: Kansas City Royals. I love the farm system too, but it's crazy to wait for chances to win a World Series that you think you MIGHT have in the future when there's a perfectly good chance to win the World Series sitting right in front of you. I wouldn't do the trade if it required Bogaerts or Bradley, and Cecchini would be a tough decision... but after that, hell yeah, go get Cliff Lee. I agree with this premise and if you can get Lee for a reasonable cost by taking on his salary, I'm all for it. I still don't deal X, JbJr, Webster GC and RDLR so can it get done? Doubront, Barnes, Ranaudo/Workman and Brentz? I dunno.... You say Royals, I say The Washingon Nationals shutting down Strasberg last year. What an f'n JOKE.... No excuse that guy isn't pitching in the playoffs... NONE.
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Post by jdb on May 18, 2014 10:15:36 GMT -5
Might be time to bump this thread.
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Cliff Lee
May 18, 2014 17:28:58 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by FenwayFanatic on May 18, 2014 17:28:58 GMT -5
What would it take to land him?
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Post by jdb on May 18, 2014 18:24:32 GMT -5
What would it take to land him? I'm not even convinced their GM would admit failure and become sellers. If they do though Jimmy Rollins could be an attractive piece as well. That's assuming if the Front Office thinks Xander is better of moving to 3B and concentrating more on hitting.
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2014 6:49:13 GMT -5
Ruben Amaro wanted 2 of our top prospects including Xander last season and wasn't pitching in a dime for his $30 million/year salary and I doubt the price has gone down. He is unrealistic. He also supposedly wanted a top 5 prospect for Michael Young which was fantasy land.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 19, 2014 8:53:45 GMT -5
I don't see this in the cards for the Red Sox. If Philles do move him, I expect another team to come in with more than the Red Sox are willing to offer. Just because the Sox have the pieces doesn't mean they will give them up.
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