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Post by jmei on May 19, 2014 9:14:46 GMT -5
I don't see this in the cards for the Red Sox. If Philles do move him, I expect another team to come in with more than the Red Sox are willing to offer. Just because the Sox have the pieces doesn't mean they will give them up. Actually, I think the Red Sox would be the frontrunners in a Lee trade. Not a lot of teams have both the ability to absorb all of his salary but also offer a pretty competitive package of MLB-ready players. The Red Sox could take on his whole contract and offer something like Cecchini, Webster, and Ranaudo without missing a beat-- not a lot of other teams would be willing to offer three top-100-type prospects without decimating their farm system.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 19, 2014 12:27:24 GMT -5
I don't see this in the cards for the Red Sox. If Philles do move him, I expect another team to come in with more than the Red Sox are willing to offer. Just because the Sox have the pieces doesn't mean they will give them up. Actually, I think the Red Sox would be the frontrunners in a Lee trade. Not a lot of teams have both the ability to absorb all of his salary but also offer a pretty competitive package of MLB-ready players. The Red Sox could take on his whole contract and offer something like Cecchini, Webster, and Ranaudo without missing a beat-- not a lot of other teams would be willing to offer three top-100-type prospects without decimating their farm system. I would think the Phillies would want Henry Owens in just about any discussion with the Red Sox for Cliff Lee. Wouldn't signing Cliff Lee just pretty much seal Lester's exit from Boston? I would think that would be Lester's money that would be earmarked for him that Lee would be getting, albeit on a shorter deal. I honestly think at this point and it surprises me to say this that Lester is a better pitcher than Lee and his future is better. I had hopped off the Jon Lester bandwagon after his down year, so what do I know?
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Cliff Lee
May 19, 2014 15:08:52 GMT -5
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 19, 2014 15:08:52 GMT -5
Actually, I think the Red Sox would be the frontrunners in a Lee trade. Not a lot of teams have both the ability to absorb all of his salary but also offer a pretty competitive package of MLB-ready players. The Red Sox could take on his whole contract and offer something like Cecchini, Webster, and Ranaudo without missing a beat-- not a lot of other teams would be willing to offer three top-100-type prospects without decimating their farm system. I would think the Phillies would want Henry Owens in just about any discussion with the Red Sox for Cliff Lee. Wouldn't signing Cliff Lee just pretty much seal Lester's exit from Boston? I would think that would be Lester's money that would be earmarked for him that Lee would be getting, albeit on a shorter deal. I honestly think at this point and it surprises me to say this that Lester is a better pitcher than Lee and his future is better. I had hopped off the Jon Lester bandwagon after his down year, so what do I know? The Phillies are a 5th place team with a higher payroll than we have. I'm not so sure Phillies ownership is going to be okay with that forever. Then again, im not sure we land him if we keep playing badly. I just don't really think the Phillies have as much leverage as people are making it seem.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 19, 2014 15:26:40 GMT -5
IF we were to make a blockbuster trade, would it really be for a starting pitcher? Fangraphs has Red Sox team total at 3rd for starting pitchers, 1st for pitching overall. It's the offense that is a problem. Also, not sure why we would trade players for a high salary pitcher seeing as Sheilds, Lester, and Scherzer will be free agents next year. Why trade away young players to pay a guy 25M per year when you could just go out and pay a guy 25M a year?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 19, 2014 20:49:33 GMT -5
I would think the Phillies would want Henry Owens in just about any discussion with the Red Sox for Cliff Lee. Wouldn't signing Cliff Lee just pretty much seal Lester's exit from Boston? I would think that would be Lester's money that would be earmarked for him that Lee would be getting, albeit on a shorter deal. I honestly think at this point and it surprises me to say this that Lester is a better pitcher than Lee and his future is better. I had hopped off the Jon Lester bandwagon after his down year, so what do I know? The Phillies are a 5th place team with a higher payroll than we have. I'm not so sure Phillies ownership is going to be okay with that forever. Then again, im not sure we land him if we keep playing badly. I just don't really think the Phillies have as much leverage as people are making it seem. Don't think they're just going to give him up for nothing. You figure that Doubront and/or Owens would be part of the deal for starters and expand from there. I doubt the Sox are the only team with money to spend for Lee who I honestly think isn't what he once was. It seems that teams are pretty flush with money these days so I'm sure another team could take on Lee's contract. Heck, the Dodgers haven't signed a high priced free agent in a while.
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2014 20:52:42 GMT -5
They'll insist on Betts, Owens and guys like Margot/Devers/Rijo. May as well forget it.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 19, 2014 20:57:19 GMT -5
They'll insist on Betts, Owens and guys like Margot/Devers/Rijo. May as well forget it. That sounds about right. No thanks.
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2014 21:00:11 GMT -5
They'll insist on Betts, Owens and guys like Margot/Devers/Rijo. May as well forget it. That sounds about right. No thanks. Plus we'll have to pay all of the salary. Amaro is insane and should have been fire at least a year ago.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 19, 2014 21:08:47 GMT -5
That sounds about right. No thanks. Plus we'll have to pay all of the salary. Amaro is insane and should have been fire at least a year ago. He's a terrible GM. Fortunately for the Phils they won that 2008 Championship. They had a window to win more and that window closed and I suspect they should be at the bottom of that division for awhile as the Mets and Marlins improve.
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2014 21:32:41 GMT -5
Plus we'll have to pay all of the salary. Amaro is insane and should have been fire at least a year ago. He's a terrible GM. Fortunately for the Phils they won that 2008 Championship. They had a window to win more and that window closed and I suspect they should be at the bottom of that division for awhile as the Mets and Marlins improve. I think the Yankees might be better off in the long term.
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Post by jmei on Jul 19, 2014 20:45:38 GMT -5
The argument for acquiring Lee is simple: he's a true ace, legitimately one of the five or ten best pitchers in baseball, and one available on a short-term deal (albeit a very expensive one) and for what should be a very reasonable trade cost. Over the past three+ seasons, Lee has been one of the five best pitchers in baseball on a per-inning basis by both ERA and FIP. That stays essentially true if you want to look at the last two+ years or the last one+ year. He's a true innings-eater, having put up four straight seasons of 210+ IP and coming in amongst the league leaders in innings pitched per start in most of the last few years ( 2013, 2012, etc). He's one of the few pitchers in baseball who you could reasonably expect to "replace" Lester's 2014 production; a better bet than even Lester himself to put up a sub-3 ERA/FIP next year. The elephant in the room is his elbow injury, which has put him on the shelf for two months now. That's obviously a huge red flag, especially for a guy who is as old and has pitched as many innings as Lee has. But the injury was not to his UCL (the ligament that, when torn, requires Tommy John surgery); instead, it was a strain of his flexor tendon. That's an injury which is much less scary-- a mild strain will heal on its own with rest and rehab (unlike a ligament, which never grows back on its own), and flexor tendons tears are both rare and would require a much shorter turnaround time than TJ surgery (see above link). It's the same injury that Chris Sale had in April; he returned in a month and been lights-out since. Moreover, if you're in the "Jon Lester is going to age well because he's big/strong/hasn't been on the DL/throws fastballs/etc." camp, it's worth noting that Lee hits all those characteristics. He's had some mild abdominal strains over the years (none requiring much more than the minimum 15 days), but he hasn't had any problems with his arm since 2006. He doesn't throw many breaking pitches, doesn't rely on plus velocity, and hasn't thrown many high-stress innings (note Lester's placement on that high-stress innings list, btw). If the medicals look clean (and that's admittedly a big if), Lee's not much higher an injury risk than most pitchers, with his lack of previous injury history and clean indicators compensating somewhat for his advanced age. He might be a slightly higher injury risk than, say, Lester, but the gap is not that large, and it's a risk I'm willing to take for a superior pitcher. There's also been some chirping about Lee's contract, but I think it's actually an asset. Lee is owed $25m next year and has a $27.5m team option for 2016 that he'll likely ask Boston to guarantee as part of the trade (Boston is on his limited no-trade list). That's a lot of money, but it comes on a short-term deal, which is hugely important. It means his deal is unlikely to turn into an albatross (since short-term production is easier to project than long-term production), and even if it does, you can wash your hands of it in two years, unlike the five/six/seven-year commitments that you have to make to most elite pitchers. The AAV is huge, but I'm totally comfortable with short-term, high AAV contracts (and this front office seems like it would be as well). If Lester would sign for 2/$52.5m, I'd totally do that deal, and here's an even better pitcher (albeit a slightly riskier one) available for the same price! Indeed, Lee has a good chance of outperforming that contract if you were to project him out over 2015-16-- for instance, Oliver projects him to total 7.4 wins over the next two years; that's about $7m per win, which is solid $/WAR value. Plus, the fact that he has such a high AAV means there aren't many teams who could realistically fit him into their payroll (Philadelphia definitely wants to cut payroll, so I doubt they'd be interested in subsidizing him). The only other potential acquirers seem to be the Yankees, Dodgers, and maybe the Cardinals or Tigers (Detroit is more of a potential offseason acquirer). Given the limited competition, the prospect cost to acquire him might be rather low for a pitcher of his caliber, and the Red Sox have a glut of MLB-ready pitching prospects (certainly more than the Yankees or Dodgers), which Philadelphia is reportedly looking for. If, say, Philadelphia would be willing to take a package of Workman, Ranaudo, and Brentz, that seems like an absolutely no-brainer to me (don't focus too much on this specific trade package; I'm just implying that the Red Sox have enough depth to outbid NYY/LAD without including any of their top prospects). In light of the above, I'd be absolutely willing to trade for Lee, and that's true regardless of whether Lester re-signs or not. If they trade Lester, it may be tough to then turn around and acquire Lee midseason, but Lee might not last until the offseason (I see the Yankees making a huge push for him in July/August), so I want to get him ASAP. If Lester leaves, Lee's absolutely at the top of my list as a potential replacement. He's elite, on a reasonable contract, and not that high of an injury risk. Hopefully Cherington and co. realize that and make an aggressive bid for him before he ends up in pinstripes.
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Post by jdb on Jul 19, 2014 21:46:07 GMT -5
Agree. Someone like Doubront could be an attractive piece for them too.
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Post by artfuldodger on Jul 20, 2014 7:09:58 GMT -5
Would paying $45 to $50 million to Lester and Lee prevent the Red Sox from adding offense? Would adding Lee lose Lester? If either answer is yes, then I would pass.
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Post by jdb on Jul 20, 2014 8:48:43 GMT -5
Would paying $45 to $50 million to Lester and Lee prevent the Red Sox from adding offense? Would adding Lee lose Lester? If either answer is yes, then I would pass. For me the only way I aggressively go after Lee is if Lester walks or if they give him away to clear their books. Again given his age and salary I don't include any of Betts, Owens, Swihart or Devers in any package.
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Post by suttree on Jul 20, 2014 9:04:47 GMT -5
Pretty bold to think the asking price has fallen from Xander to Ranaudo. If we could get Lee for some of the packages mentioned here I'm sure even the Yankees could make a better offer. Quantity trades are pretty much always pipe dreams. We would be lucky to get Lee for Devers and one of our pitchers, however, I'm sure the asking price is higher right now.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 20, 2014 9:14:32 GMT -5
I don't understand the fascination with Lee who is injured , on the downside of his career and would likely cost at least two top prospects who would be better used to try to acquire a bat.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jul 20, 2014 9:17:24 GMT -5
What good would it do to acquire Lee if we keep on failing to score runs? Lester should have 13 Ws so far. Peavy should have four wins more if it weren't for the anemic offense this team provides.
I'd prefer to hold our young arm trading chips for a Stanton type in the off season.
I hope BC doesn't bite on this 35 yr old lefty.
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Post by jmei on Jul 20, 2014 9:21:11 GMT -5
Would paying $45 to $50 million to Lester and Lee prevent the Red Sox from adding offense? Would adding Lee lose Lester? If either answer is yes, then I would pass. I agree that there's probably only room in the budget/prospect pool to do two out of three of acquire Lee, re-sign Lester, and make a big splash on the position-player side (read: trade-and-extend Stanton, acquire CarGo or Heyward or J. Upton). But I think Lee should be ranked pretty highly amongst those three options. Between his "no midseason negotiation" stance and how close he is to free agency, I'm pessimistic about the likelihood of a Lester extension. And Lee is almost certainly more available than Stanton/CarGo/etc., but represents an upgrade of similar magnitude.
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Post by jmei on Jul 20, 2014 9:29:57 GMT -5
Pretty bold to think the asking price has fallen from Xander to Ranaudo. If we could get Lee for some of the packages mentioned here I'm sure even the Yankees could make a better offer. Quantity trades are pretty much always pipe dreams. We would be lucky to get Lee for Devers and one of our pitchers, however, I'm sure the asking price is higher right now. If the Phillies are looking for near-major-league-ready talent, I don't think the Yankees can come close to matching the kind of offers the Red Sox can make. Their top prospects are Severino (who was just promoted to AA) and Sanchez (stock has dropped, middling results after repeating AA). Maybe you're right that the Red Sox have to include someone like Owens or De La Rosa to headline a package, but I legitimately think that the wealth of top-100-caliber guys in the system in the high minors (think Workman, Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, Vazquez, Middlebrooks, Marrero, Cecchini, Coyle) would be very appealing for a team like the Phillies that just needs good players all over the diamond.
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Post by jmei on Jul 20, 2014 9:47:10 GMT -5
Re: they should save the prospects to trade for a bat Lee is being actively shopped, while there is basically no indication that guys like Stanton or CarGo are or will be available. There's a good chance that neither of those guys (or whatever else big bat you want to fantasize about) is moved this offseason. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and all that. For reasons I've mentioned here, I don't think the 2015 offense is in that bad of a shape, and a very good pitching staff plus a solid offense is a perfectly fine model for building a contender. Besides, I don't think those two routes are necessarily mutually exclusive. Yeah, going all in on Lee plus Stanton would decimate the farm system, but I think they have enough top-end guys and depth that it'd be possible (say, Betts/Owens/Swihart for Stanton, best of the rest for Lee). If they went for more mid-tier offensive upgrades (say, Josh Willingham or Allen Craig or Chase Headley), you could definitely combine that with a Lee acquisition.
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Post by suttree on Jul 20, 2014 9:57:06 GMT -5
They dragged their feet with Michael Young for so long I just get the sense that FO is on autopilot. Probably impossible to get them to move a premium guy with over a year of control left without giving up a lot.
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Post by jmei on Jul 20, 2014 10:14:57 GMT -5
I actually get the sense that they're pretty motivated to move him, whether before the trade deadline or this offseason. The Phillies blogs seem to think so ( example), but you're right that Amaro is not always the most predictable GM.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 20, 2014 12:43:17 GMT -5
I think we could get him for something like Workman and Johnson. If we trade for Lee, we don't have to give up a pick. Unlike signing Scherzer or Shields.
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Post by artfuldodger on Jul 20, 2014 12:48:28 GMT -5
In an article on Espin.com (insider), Jim Bowden suggests a trade of Lee to the Yankees for Judge and Severino. Who are the equivalent players for the Red Sox?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 20, 2014 13:31:54 GMT -5
I think we could get him for something like Workman and Johnson. If we trade for Lee, we don't have to give up a pick. Unlike signing Scherzer or Shields. Keep in mind though - if you trade for Lee, it's unlikely you get a pick if/when he leaves as a free agent or retires - due to his age.
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