nomar
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Cliff Lee
Dec 20, 2014 20:36:02 GMT -5
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Post by nomar on Dec 20, 2014 20:36:02 GMT -5
Lee has given his teams 200+ innings 8 of the previous 9 years before 2014. If his medical checks out in fine with him. He threw well last year and doesn't rely on velocity.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 20, 2014 20:59:35 GMT -5
Lee is a good trade candidate for us, you could basically get Lee by just eating his salary.
Definitely a bit risky though with his recent injury. Don't want to be on the hook for nearly $40 million for a guy who misses most of the season.
Could be a good option though.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 20, 2014 21:05:21 GMT -5
I don't see why the Sox would want to add such a high risk factor to the mix. It's the opposite of the approach they've taken so far. A 36 year old $25m (27.5 or 12.5m buyout for 2016) pitcher with elbow questions is a ton of risk no matter what the upside is here.
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Post by jmei on Dec 20, 2014 22:08:29 GMT -5
I don't see why the Sox would want to add such a high risk factor to the mix. It's the opposite of the approach they've taken so far. A 36 year old $25m (27.5 or 12.5m buyout for 2016) pitcher with elbow questions is a ton of risk no matter what the upside is here. I wouldn't assume that this front office would necessarily rule out a move with some risk attached to it. One of the reasons you make so many lowish-ceiling, high-floor moves is in order to put yourself in a situation to take on a high-risk high-reward guy like Lee. The real risk here is the injury, which is obviously a big unknown to us and so it's hard for us to evaluate how good such a move might be. But if he's healthy, I'm confident that he's one of the better pitchers in the league, and he might come close to justifying the considerable guaranteed salary he has coming to him. And if he throws 200 innings in 2015, we almost certainly want him for an extra $15m in 2016. The thing that makes him appealing to me is that he's a potentially elite pitcher who will be available (a) without requiring much in trade costs and (b) on a short-term commitment. Good pitchers are rarely available with that combo of traits. If he busts, the only thing that takes a hit is John Henry's checkbook, and even then, it'd only be for one year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 20, 2014 22:56:29 GMT -5
That contract would impact the salary cap for 2016 even if he doesn't pitch 200 innings, the buyout is 12.5. As far as I know, the plan is one year of excess, not two consecutive years.To keep Lee on the books for 2016, we'd pretty much not be able to extend anyone, Porcello, for example. We really only have Napoli, Victorino, Masterson, ujica and Breslow coming off the books assuming we opt Buchholz and Ortiz.
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Cliff Lee
Dec 20, 2014 22:58:01 GMT -5
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Post by cambos174 on Dec 20, 2014 22:58:01 GMT -5
The Phillies would have to eat, at a minimum, 15 mil to get cliff lee out of the seriously negative trade value territory.
Love the pitcher and think it'd be wise to consider options such as this. Could help Amaro in speeding up his rebuild process. Maybe something like Craig for Lee and 15 mil.
Could be a good risk under the right terms.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 20, 2014 23:03:53 GMT -5
The Phillies would have to eat, at a minimum, 15 mil to get cliff lee out of the seriously negative trade value territory. Love the pitcher and think it'd be wise to consider options such as this. Could help Amaro in speeding up his rebuild process. Maybe something like Craig for Lee and 15 mil. Could be a good risk under the right terms. In that area, Lee plus $10m for 2015 and $12.5m for 2016 seems more appropriate and also upping the Sox side to Kelly which would leave both rotations at 5 and possibly Coyle who's blocked here and the Phils had interest in. Under those circumstances, we could guarantee Lee's 2016 (he has a limited no-trade) and have him at 2/$30 which seems appropriate based on his situation (assuming his elbow is currently healthy) and fit under the cap for 2016. (I'm assuming we are at least going to take a stab at extending Porcello and that we will likely cover Masterson, Victorino and Napoli internally in 2016)
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Post by Guidas on Dec 20, 2014 23:14:13 GMT -5
I would be in favor of Lee if his elbow issues didn't appear last year. The medicals would have to be near perfect for me to want the acquire him now. His limited no trade includes the Sox which likely means he'd want them to pick up his $27+M option for 2016. www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/philadelphia-phillies/If the Sox want to be scrupulous with medicals and will cede paying this much cash per year to one pitcher, then why not just get Scherzer if a scrutinizing of his medicals passes muster. If healthy he should be able, earn a $24-26m a year contract for the next 4 years. The last 3 years are where you may get into some issues even if he does not incur injury. Unless they are convinced they can acquire or develop a legit #2 or better in the next few months, it's not a bad risk given all the factors. Unless they belive "fielding a competitive team" is just good enough here. In which case they'll stick with what they have.
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Post by soxfan06 on Dec 21, 2014 2:04:38 GMT -5
I would be in favor of Lee if his elbow issues didn't appear last year. The medicals would have to be near perfect for me to want the acquire him now. His limited no trade includes the Sox which likely means he'd want them to pick up his $27+M option for 2016. www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/philadelphia-phillies/If the Sox want to be scrupulous with medicals and will cede paying this much cash per year to one pitcher, then why not just get Scherzer if a scrutinizing of his medicals passes muster. If healthy he should be able, earn a $24-26m a year contract for the next 4 years. The last 3 years are where you may get into some issues even if he does not incur injury. Unless they are convinced they can acquire or develop a legit #2 or better in the next few months, it's not a bad risk given all the factors. Unless they belive "fielding a competitive team" is just good enough here. In which case they'll stick with what they have. Because signing a guy to a 7 or 8 year deal is a lot different than trade for a risky player with 1 year+vestion option. Like completely different stratospheres.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 22, 2014 3:08:32 GMT -5
I'd take a gamble on him, but at what cost? If you think he is going to be healthy next year, I have no problem with his contract. The question is what would it take for Philly to trade him?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 22, 2014 7:28:02 GMT -5
And then we hear about what Amaro would be asking for...
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Post by jmei on Feb 20, 2015 14:04:44 GMT -5
On trading for Cliff Lee: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-i-might-rather-trade-for-cliff-lee/I've mentioned this before, but if his medicals are clean enough, I'd be all over Cliff Lee. You're buying low on a guy who has been one of the ten or fifteen best pitchers in the league who would be a short-term commitment and wouldn't require you to give up too much.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2015 14:23:40 GMT -5
It's kind of funny to read this thread from the beginning. No one wanted to give up Doubront.
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Cliff Lee
Feb 24, 2015 23:01:15 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by jmei on Feb 24, 2015 23:01:15 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 25, 2015 0:11:43 GMT -5
Hard to see this one coming to pass, at least for meaningful prospects, without Philly eating a bunch of that salary.
I have to admit it's tough for me to read Heyman. He's too cute with the writing. Instead of stating flatly that Amaro is asking for too much, he attributes that sentiment to unnamed sources.
Makes me suspicious that he's still carrying the water for the Yankees. The idea that the Sox should shell out $27.5 million for Lee when he's 37 in 2016 is an idea that would crack a smile on the face of the surliest NY fan, and there are a lot of those these days.
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nomar
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Cliff Lee
Feb 25, 2015 1:40:50 GMT -5
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Post by nomar on Feb 25, 2015 1:40:50 GMT -5
Using Victorino in a package to get Lee would be amazing
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Post by burythehammer on Feb 25, 2015 8:39:17 GMT -5
Ruben, just keep doing you.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2015 9:01:51 GMT -5
I'll just assume that RAJ will value Lee as an ace while ignoring the money owed and injury risk when he's being approached to make a trade.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 25, 2015 9:37:16 GMT -5
Given the current state of the Phillies, that future success might happen around the time when Lee reaches his hundredth birthday. I suppose some team will give him some of what he's looking for when it comes to prospects. I don't think he's very realistic.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 25, 2015 11:36:14 GMT -5
I'll just assume that RAJ will value Lee as an ace while ignoring the money owed and injury risk when he's being approached to make a trade. Lol
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 25, 2015 13:11:37 GMT -5
On trading for Cliff Lee: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-i-might-rather-trade-for-cliff-lee/I've mentioned this before, but if his medicals are clean enough, I'd be all over Cliff Lee. You're buying low on a guy who has been one of the ten or fifteen best pitchers in the league who would be a short-term commitment and wouldn't require you to give up too much. I think that most fans would trade Lee for Victorino and Mujica for the reasons you stated in your previous post so long as it didn't take away from the long-term future of the team. To quote a cliche, "it's not our money". Yet I am skeptical if the Phillies would be willing to part with Lee in a trade that didn't bring back very good prospects and/or young major league talent. All of the reasons you stated as a positive for acquiring Lee, the Phillies know as well. The Phillies ownership is rather fractured with no one person in charge. It's likely that there isn't a mandate to cut payroll at all costs. If that's the case, then the Phillies would likely be better off waiting until the trade deadline or even after when Lee's health might be proven and they would likely receive a better prospect package.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2015 13:20:10 GMT -5
I think the last time we tried to trade for Lee, RAJ was demanding Bogaerts, JBJ and Cecchini who were our top 3 at the time. I'd trade one of JBJ and Cecchini for him.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 25, 2015 13:27:55 GMT -5
I think the last time we tried to trade for Lee, RAJ was demanding Bogaerts, JBJ and Cecchini who were our top 3 at the time. I'd trade one of JBJ and Cecchini for him. Yeah but why should the Phillies do that now? JBJ and Cecchini are both coming off of very bad years. Further they already have Cody Asche who isn't going to be much worse than Cecchini anyways. If they wait, there is an opportunity to do much better.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2015 13:32:33 GMT -5
I think the last time we tried to trade for Lee, RAJ was demanding Bogaerts, JBJ and Cecchini who were our top 3 at the time. I'd trade one of JBJ and Cecchini for him. Yeah but why should the Phillies do that now? JBJ and Cecchini are both coming off of very bad years. Further they already have Cody Asche who isn't going to be much worse than Cecchini anyways. If they wait, there is an opportunity to do much better. Yep, and an opportunity for Lee to get hurt again. Or not be good. I predict he waits on both until they're worthless. We are talking about a worst case scenario of paying Lee $37.5 million for 5 starts and then pay for his TJS. I doubt the Phillies kick in any money.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 25, 2015 15:33:13 GMT -5
Yeah but why should the Phillies do that now? JBJ and Cecchini are both coming off of very bad years. Further they already have Cody Asche who isn't going to be much worse than Cecchini anyways. If they wait, there is an opportunity to do much better. Yep, and an opportunity for Lee to get hurt again. Or not be good. I predict he waits on both until they're worthless. We are talking about a worst case scenario of paying Lee $37.5 million for 5 starts and then pay for his TJS. I doubt the Phillies kick in any money. The risk of course is that he gets hurt. But if you trade him now for second tier guys that's almost the same as getting nothing. You aren't getting players who will likely move your team forward. Saving money really doesn't help the Phillies any because there aren't players they can spend the savings on. If I were them, I'd wait as opposed to trading him now. Before last year, he had an excellent track record of health. '
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